Search

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is urgent for the global community with rising climates. Considering the importance of renewable energy in mitigating climate warming, forecasting renewable energy generation is vital for the Chinese government's future low-carbon and green development plan. This paper proposes a novel multivariable grey model based on historical data on China's renewable energy generation and three industries. A novel information accumulation mechanism with two adaptive factors is designed to improve the traditional multivariable grey modeling defect. Based on the proposed mechanism, this paper optimizes the initial and background values and nonlinear model structure with the whale optimization algorithm. The forecasting results show that the fitting MAPE is 1.13%, comprehensive MAPE is 2.60%, MSE is 50.86, and RMSE is 7.13, which significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of traditional GM(1,N) and are better than other compared models. The forecasting results show that China's renewable energy generation will gradually increase to 5834.02 TWh. The Chinese government should keep the previous Five-Year Plans rising trend of the three industries in the future Five-Year Plans to support renewable energy industries. In China's future energy system, it is necessary to promote incentive policies and capital investment for actively accelerated development to make renewable energy the leading force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global climate change posing a major threat to human society, a growing number of countries have taken "carbon-neutral" as a national strategy and proposed a vision of carbon-free future. As an important supplement to traditional fossil energy, renewable energy is the main force to reduce the use of high-carbon energy and carbon dioxide emissions, which will become the trend of social development in the future. Finding the optimal renewable energy source is of particular significance for achieving the net zero emissions. However, the existing evaluation methods of renewable energy sources have obvious shortcomings. In terms of weight calculation methods, such as the randomness of the subjective method is strong and the index weights do not reflect the small changes of the evaluation matrix, which affect the reliability and accuracy of the evaluation result. The existing ranking methods can only achieve the complete ranking of the different objects, but cannot classify the renewable energy technical alternatives into different grades. Given this background, this paper proposes a novel evaluation method for renewable energy plans based on improved sparrow search algorithm and projection pursuit model. Firstly, this paper improves the traditional sparrow search algorithm from three aspects: population initialization, population update and population variation. Then, the projection pursuit model is constructed, and the improved sparrow search algorithm is applied to optimize the projection target to find the optimal projection direction, so as to determine the weight values of each evaluation index. Finally, the weighted rank-sum ratio method is used to select the best renewable energy technical plan, which can not only realize the complete ranking of different plans, but also classify the technical plans into different levels. Based on the actual renewable energy development data from a province in China, experiments were carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experimental results show that the proposed method performs better than some existing evaluation methods of renewable energy technical plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel fractional grey Chebyshev polynomial Bernoulli model is proposed. • The structure of the NGBM(1,1,Tn) model is variable. • Comparative study shows that the new model is superior to other five grey models. Accurate mid-to-long term China's renewable energy forecasting is becoming more and more important for integrating renewable energy systems with smart grid and energy strategic planning. For this purpose, this paper proposes a novel fractional structural adaptive grey Chebyshev polynomial Bernoulli model. The new model is based on NGBM(1,1) model to describe nonlinear phenomena. The proposed adjacent accumulation operator can balance old and new information accumulation with less fluctuation. The introduction of the Chebyshev polynomial enables the model to adaptively adjust the structure of the model, which reduces the difficulty of the modeler's operation from the point of view of the expert system. Meanwhile, an improved Grey Wolf optimization algorithm (IGWO) was used to optimize the parameters. Four real cases of renewable energy in China, including production and consumption are used for verification. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and probability density analysis illustrate the robustness and accuracy of the proposed model. Finally, the development of the four cases in the next 5 years is predicted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]