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Effective supply chain management is crucial for economic growth, and sustainability is becoming a key consideration for large companies. COVID-19 has presented significant challenges to supply chains, making PCR testing a vital product during the pandemic. It detects the presence of the virus if you are infected at the time and detects fragments of the virus even after you are no longer infected. This paper proposes a multi-objective mathematical linear model to optimize a sustainable, resilient, and responsive supply chain for PCR diagnostic tests. The model aims to minimize costs, negative societal impact caused by shortages, and environmental impact, using a scenario-based approach with stochastic programming. The model is validated by investigating a real-life case study in one of Iran's high-risk supply chain areas. The proposed model is solved using the revised multi-choice goal programming method. Lastly, sensitivity analyses based on effective parameters are conducted to analyze the behavior of the developed Mixed-Integer Linear Programming. According to the results, not only is the model capable of balancing three objective functions, but it is also capable of providing resilient and responsive networks. To enhance the design of the supply chain network, this paper has considered various COVID-19 variants and their infectious rates, in contrast to prior studies that did not consider the variations in demand and societal impact exhibited by different virus variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Propose a framework for measuring a maturity level of performance-based budgeting. • Develop a parallel network data envelopment analysis model. • Consider the hierarchical configuration of performance indicators. • Use fuzzy sets theory to deal with vagueness and ambiguity. • Present a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the developed framework. Performance-based budgeting (PBB) aims to formulate and manage public budgetary resources to improve managerial decisions based on actual performance measures of agencies. Although the PBB system has been overwhelmingly applied by various agencies, the progress and maturity of its implementation process are not satisfactory at large. Therefore, it warrants to find, evaluate and improve the performance of organisations in relation to implementing a PBB system. To do so, the composite indicators (CIs) have been proposed to aggregate multiple indicators associated with the PBB system, but their employment is contentious as they often lean on ad-hoc and troublesome assumptions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods as a powerful and established tool help to contend with key limitations of CIs. Although the original DEA method ignores an internal production process, the knowledge of the internal structure of the PBB systems and indicators is of importance to provide further insights when assessing the performance of PBB systems. In this paper, we present a budget assessment framework by breaking a PBB system into two parallel stages including operations performance (OP) and financial performance enhancement (FPE) to open up the black-box structure of the system and consider the indicator hierarchy configuration of each stage. In situations of the hierarchical configuration of indicators, we develop a multilayer parallel network DEA-based CIs model to measure the PBB maturity levels of the system and its stages. It is shown that the discrimination power of the proposed multilayer model is better than the existing models with one layer and in situations of relatively small number of DMUs the model developed in this paper can be a good solution to the dimension reduction of indicators. Moreover, this research leverages fuzzy logic to surmount the subjective information that is often available in collecting indicators of the PBB systems. The major contribution of this research is to examine a case study of a PBB maturity award in Iran, as a developing country with a myriad of financial challenges, to adopt a PBB maturity model as well as point towards the efficacy and applicability of the proposed framework in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) assesses the performance of Decision-Making Units (DMUs) by measuring only one type of efficiency using definite data. However, due to the vastness of some industries, such as banks, calculating only one type of efficiency cannot confirm DMUs as efficient or inefficient. Also, real-world cases are often faced with uncertain data, and conventional DEA lacks the power to consider these uncertainties in evaluation. In this paper, we develop a multi-objective DEA model to calculate three types of efficiencies, including profitability, operational, and transactional for bank branches when there are uncertain data. First, we apply a modified DEA model which is capable of calculating the common weight of all inputs and outputs by solving only one linear programming model. Then, we employ a robust approach to handle the uncertainty in data. The uncertainty in data is described with discrete scenarios. Discrete scenarios require a set of possible values for each parameter with uncertain nature. Finally, we apply a fuzzy programming method to convert the proposed multi-objective model into a single-objective one. Our main goal is to calculate three types of efficiencies for bank branches under four different scenarios. To validate the accuracy of the proposed model, a real case of 45 Agriculture bank branches located in West Azerbaijan in Iran is examined. The results show that the proposed model can produce accurate results under different scenarios. We also perform a comparative analysis on each efficiency aspect to specify the benchmark branches and also inefficient branches. Comparative analysis can help managers recognize where improvement should be prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] Improving streamflow prediction plays a significant role in flood warning, mitigation and development purposes. Therefore, this paper aims to compare the prediction capability of a useful conceptual hydrologic model hydrologiska byråns vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) enhanced and equipped with an automatic calibration procedure (Genetic Algorithm) along with two well-known deep learning (DL) algorithms, including Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). This study was concentrated on the daily streamflow of two river basins with diverse climatic and hydrological conditions, namely the Halilrood River with fragmented and intermittent flows (located in Iran) and the Tweed River with a permanent stream flow (Located across the border of Scotland and northern England). These were particularly selected to address both seasonal and perennial riverine cases. For reproducing the streamflow, 10-year records of the daily discharge, precipitation, and temperature (from satellite and ground resources), and evapotranspiration were used as the main input data. The accuracy of the implemented models was assessed using several indices. The findings show that 1) the LSTM and GRU show better accuracy than the employed hydrologic model for estimating daily discharges (especially in the seasonal river basin); 2) the DL approaches need only meteorological data inputs (precipitation and temperature) and are independent of involved uncertainties in hydrological modeling such as physical characteristics of basins; and 3) best streamflow simulations were achieved by the LSTM (best agreement with the observations). In general, LSTM has the highest priority to be connected with online hydrological rainfall-runoff simulations and dynamical forecast models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Developing a framework for the wellness tourism supply chain. • Designing a mathematical model for the wellness tourism supply chain. • Observing the concept of sustainability in wellness tourism. • Using the 3 V big data concept in data collection. • Considering a real case study from Sarein spa in Iran. Nowadays, the most successful and prominent wellness tourism centers are those that, consider the aspects of sustainable development, while providing memorable services with the best quality and reasonable prices. A wellness tourism center is seeking to meet the purposeful journey of wellness tourists by improving their mental, physical, and spiritual happiness. This paper presents a three-objective mathematical model to formulate the supply chain of services provided by a wellness tourism center. The purpose of this model is to establish a balance between sustainability aspects in this supply chain. The first objective seeks to maximize profits from the supply chain and the second and third objectives are to maximize customer satisfaction concerning environmental and social impacts. The proposed model includes quantitative parameters of operating costs, capacity increase cost, service capacity, and service demand. Due to the multi-objective nature of the model, the improved multi-choice goal programming method is used. Real data are collected from the Ardabil-Sarein wellness tourism center in Iran and used as a case study to validate and analyze the model. In collecting the dataset for the parameters, the three aspects of big data (3 V's) are considered. Findings show that the model offers different types of discounts for various periods following the tourist demand. Additionally, the wellness tourism center can use the original cost to expand its range of services by offering different tours. Finally, the limitations and managerial suggestions are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proposed closed-loop supply chain network for the olive industry. [Display omitted] • Designing a sustainable closed-loop supply chain network for the olive industry. • Developing a multi-objective optimization framework for analyzing economic, environmental and social factors. • Proposing two hybrid optimization algorithms consisting of four meta-heuristics for the first time. • Studying a real-case study to implement the sustainability goals. A closed-loop option for reusing, remanufacturing, and recycling waste products in the olive industry creates a high added value for this business network. This fact motivates the implementation of closed-loop supply chains for adopting an efficient and sustainable strategy in the olive industry in Iran. As one of the developing countries, Iran must redesign their supply chain networks to meet the standards of sustainable development goals. In this regard, the triple bottom line approach focuses on a sustainable design considering all economic, environmental, and social factors in supply chain networks. The main novelty of this paper is to merge the sustainable Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network (CLSCN) design and the olive industry. Hence, a multi-objective optimization framework is proposed to make location, allocation, and inventory decisions for the considered problem. Based on the triple bottom line approach, the objectives of the optimization model are to minimize the total cost and carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and maximize job opportunities. In small instances, the model is solved by an epsilon-constraint method. To address the high complexity of large-scale networks, this study innovates new hybrid optimization algorithms. In this regard, a hybrid of Virus Colony Search Algorithm (VCS) and Simulated Annealing (SA) and a combination of Electromagnetism-like Algorithm (EMA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) are proposed for the first time. To confirm their efficiency, an extensive comparison with individual algorithms is carried out by different multi-objective optimization metrics. Finally, some sensitivity analyses are performed to discuss some practical insights for the supply chain managers working in the olive industry in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: One of the primary concerns on target setting the electricity distribution companies is the uncertainty on input/output data. In this paper, an interactive robust data envelopment analysis (IRDEA) model is proposed to determine the input and output target values of electricity distribution companies with considering the existence perturbation in data. Target setting is implemented with the uncertain data and the decision maker (DM) can search the envelop frontier and find the targets based on his preference. In order to search the envelop frontier, the paper combine the DEA and multi-objective linear programming method such as STEM. The proposed method of this paper is capable of handling uncertainty in data and finding the target values according to the DM’s preferences. To illustrate ability the proposed model, a numerical example is solved. Also, the input and output target values for some of the electricity distribution companies in Iran are reported. The results indicate that the IRDEA model is suitable for target setting based on DM’s preferences and with considering uncertain data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Information technology (IT) is a tool crucial for enterprises to achieve a competitive advantage and organizational innovation. A critical aspect of IT management is the decision whereby the best set of IT projects is selected from many competing proposals. The optimal selection process is a significant strategic resource allocation decision that can engage an organization in substantial long-term commitments. However, making such decisions is difficult because there are lots of quantitative and qualitative factors to be considered in evaluation process. This paper has two main contributions. Firstly, it combines two well-established managerial methodologies, balanced scorecard (BSC) and data envelopment analysis (DEA), and proposes a new approach for IT project selection. This approach uses BSC as a comprehensive framework for defining IT projects evaluation criteria and uses DEA as a nonparametric technique for ranking IT projects. Secondly, this paper introduces a new integrated DEA model which identifies most efficient IT project by considering cardinal and ordinal data. Applicability of proposed approach is illustrated by using real world data of Iran Ministry of Science, Research and Technology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In recent years, BOT approach has provided an increasingly popular project financing to move toward infrastructure development in Asian countries such as Iran. There are many complexities in projects because of the variety of factors in project’s trend and also the dependence of project on mainly national factors. Due to these complexities and their long-term operating, the projects meet with uncertainty and numerous risks. In this paper, an attempt is made at identifying common risks in BOT projects. A novel hierarchical structure of risks is presented on the basis of the project-oriented point of view; next, some effective criteria for risk ranking in BOT projects are introduced. Then, the problem is defined in Fuzzy Multi Attribute Decision Making (FMADM) field. Therefore, Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) and Fuzzy Linear Programming Technique for Multidimensional Analysis of Preference (FLINMAP) methods are presented in order to rank high risks in BOT projects. In this study, these two methods are compared in four respects: separation among alternatives, fuzzy error in criteria’s weights, risk response planning, and numerousness of alternatives in proportion to criteria. The proposed model is used for identifying and assessing risks in Iran BOT power plant project. Finally, the rankings of high risks are determined according to their results at the end of this paper. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Machine-learning algorithms were adopted to predict the cost of maintenance policies. • The Markov Chain model was used to predict the post-maintenance network condition. • Optimal policies were found based on the optimization of cost and network condition. • The paper contributes to the sustainable development goals #9, #11, and #13. A framework was proposed to find optimal maintenance policies in a road network. The framework included: identifying factors that contribute to policy-making; clustering the network based on these factors; identifying criteria that impact optimal policies; and determining optimal policies and periods using these criteria. To test the framework applicability, it was applied to Iran roads network step-by-step. First, road functional class and climate were identified as factors that contribute to policy-making. Second, the network was clustered into six sub-networks based on two road functional classes and three climates. Third; maintenance cost, network condition, and maintenance period were identified as criteria that impact optimal policies. Fourth, 96 maintenance policies were applied to each sub-network considering two-year, four-year, six-year, and twelve-year maintenance periods. To quantify policies cost, seven machine-learning algorithms including Gradient Boosting Regression, Lasso, Ridge, Random Forest Regression, Elastic Net, Neural Network, and Multiple Linear Regression were tested. Using the coefficient of determination (R2) as the accuracy metric, it was found that in all sub-networks the Gradient Boosting Regression had the highest accuracy on testing set (greater than 90%) while that of other algorithms was between 50% and 90%. Sub-networks condition was modeled using the Markov Chain model and was measured by the average Pavement Condition Index (PCI). Having policies cost and sub-networks PCI, the optimal policy was selected using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). It was concluded that in all sub-networks, the four-year maintenance period was optimal. Roads in warm zone demanded the most intense policies, followed by those in cold and humid zones. The same applied to arterial roads followed by local ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the balanced scorecard approach based on sustainable development parameters is a powerful and useful methodology to evaluate the sustainable performance of organization or company. In this paper, a new approach based on sustainability balanced scorecard (SBSC) and multi criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches is developed for evaluating the performance of oil producing companies in Iran. For reflecting the interdependent relationships among factors influencing the problem under consideration, analytical network process (ANP), a branch of the MCDM techniques, is employed. However, using the ANP method for calculating the preference ratings of alternatives is a time-consuming and bothersome process; therefore, COPRAS (COmplex PRoportional ASsessment) technique is adopted to prioritize the feasible alternatives in terms of linguistic variables. Based on this study, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The performance evaluation model proposed by using a combination of the MCDM methods and the SBSC approach helps authorities to make an attempt for achieving a competitive advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work focuses on the problem of constructing accurate prediction models using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) from data that are scarce and poorly scaled. Many real-world problems have limited data to work with and yet require models with high prediction accuracy. Due to the fuzzy nature of many data sets, it is appropriate to construct prediction models using fuzzy inference systems (FIS), rather than traditional artificial neural network (ANN) models. However, the scarcity of the data raises serious concerns when attempting to construct models of this type. In this paper, we address the problem of constructing accurate prediction models using ANFIS in circumstances where capturing large amounts of data is difficult. We propose a new approach, using robust data expansion methods to enhance the data carefully. This approach provides the learning algorithm with enough representative data to allow all of the parameters (premise and consequent) to be optimised. We compare and contrast the effectiveness in reducing prediction error for three specific expansion models using radial basis function (RBF) kernels. When expanding data, for which the underlying smoothness properties are not known, there is often a danger of over-smoothing. This is usually noticeable at turning points and can occur when fitting the data using polynomials or cubic splines for example. To avoid over-smoothing, we introduce a modified multiquadric approach that allows smooth, near-interpolation while maintaining the desirable shape-preserving properties of the data. The proposed method is explained through two case studies — the first to predict gasoline consumption for the oil/fuel industry in Iraq and the second for predicting natural gas consumption in Iran. This is the first study that uses adjustable, shape-preserving re-sampling methods for optimising ANFIS models in low data environments. • ANFIS networks capture complexities not easily found using traditional ANNs. • Model complexity versus data sample size is a significant practical problem. • Data augmentation methods can be constructed using robust continuous models. • Multiquadric RBFs can be easily tuned to provide robust, accurate data expansion. • Complex models can be built with confidence using reliable data expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Conventional super-efficiency data envelopment analysis (DEA) models require the exact information of inputs or outputs. However, in many real world applications this simple assumption does not hold. Stochastic super-efficiency is one of recent methods which could handle uncertainty in data. Stochastic super-efficiency DEA models are normally formulated based on chance constraint programming. The method is used to estimate the efficiency of various decision making units (DMUs). In stochastic chance constraint super-efficiency DEA, the distinction of probability distribution function for input/output data is difficult and also, in several cases, there is not enough data for estimating of distribution function. We present a new method which incorporates the robust counterpart of super-efficiency DEA. The perturbation and uncertainty in data is assumed as ellipsoidal set and the robust super-efficiency DEA model is extended. The implementation of the proposed method of this paper is applied for ranking different gas companies in Iran. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, a hybrid model which combines Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Genetic Programming (GP) for forecasting of water demand in Tehran is developed. The initial goal of the current work is forecasting monthly water demand using GP for achieving an explicit optimum formula. In the proposed model, the EKF is applied to infer latent variables in order to make a forecasting based on GP results of water demand. The available dataset includes monthly water consumption of Tehran, the capital of Iran, from 1992 to 2002. Five best formulas based on GP results on this dataset are presented. In these models, the first five to three lags of observed water demand are used as probable and independent inputs. For each model, sensitivity of the results for each input is measured mathematically. A model with the most compatibility of the computed versus the observed water demand is used for filtering based on EKF method. Results of GP and hybrid models of EKFGP demonstrate the visible effect of observation precision on water demand prediction. These results can help decision makers of water resources to reduce their risks of online water demand forecasting and optimal operation of urban water systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, two innovative approaches for temporal clustering of sea surface temperature (SST) data using genetic algorithm (GA) and K-means clustering methods are introduced. In both methods, new approaches have been developed to consider the relationship between variations of the variable being clustered (SST in this study) and another climatic variable (precipitation in this study) in selection of clusters. In the case study, these models are used for clustering SST in selected geographical zones in Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and the northern part of Indian Ocean with respect to the precipitation variations in the selected rain gauges in Sistan and Baluchestan Province in southeast of Iran. For this purpose, fitness function of the GA model and Euclidean distance in the modified K-means method have been formulated to minimize the variance of the precipitation data associated with each selected cluster. Application of these modified clustering methods in the case study has resulted in temporal classification of SST data which also represent below and above normal precipitation seasons in the selected rain gauges. The results of the two clustering techniques have been used for development of seasonal precipitation prediction guidelines based on the SST variations in the selected geographical zones. The results have also shown that these models can be effectively used for prediction of below and above normal precipitation seasons in the study area. Comparison between the results of this study with the official forecasts of the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMET) has shown significant improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Taking account of uncertainty in multicriteria decision making problems is crucial due to the fact that depending on how it is done, ranking of alternatives can be completely different. This paper utilizes linguistic values to evaluate the performance of qualitative criteria and proposes using appropriate shapes of fuzzy numbers to evaluate the performance of quantitative criteria for each problem with respect to its particular conditions. In addition, a process to determine the weights of criteria using fuzzy numbers, which considers their competition to gain greater weights and their influence on each other is described. A new fuzzy methodology is proposed to solve such a problem that utilizes parametric form of fuzzy numbers. The case study of diversion of water into Lake Urmia watershed, which is defined using triangular, trapezoidal, and bell-shape fuzzy numbers demonstrates the utility of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The key issue for decision making in stock trading is selection of the right stock at the right time. In order to select the superior stocks (alternatives) for investment, a finite number of alternatives have to be ranked considering several and sometimes conflicting criteria that often are vague and have uncertainty conditions. Therefore, we are faced with a special Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. The purpose of this paper is to develop a fuzzy expert system for selecting superior stocks in order to encounter the uncertainty of stock portfolio recommendation and model the recommendation rules which experts at Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) use for portfolio recommendation. The results of implementing the designed fuzzy expert system at TSE were affirmative. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: New information technologies and emerging business forces have triggered a new wave of financial innovation–electronic banking (e-banking). Several studies indicate that online bankers are the most profitable and wealthiest segment to banks. On this basis, no bank today can underestimate the power of the online channel. In Iran e-banking, although proven to be a successful innovation, has still not become adopted by the laggards, and hence, has not met all the expectations of banks and customers. There exist multiple organizational, macro environmental and banking industry specific reasons for this, that we use 3D e-readiness concepts for these reasons. Those factors can move/inhibit e-banking development, but the importance of them is not same. Some of them require more attention from banks and policy makers. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to priority of factors that impact e-banking development in Iran. The special interest is to rating factors that influence e-banking development in Iran. In order to achieve the objective, 30 Iranian bank managers and expert were interviewed using the Standard AHP questionnaire. The findings indicate that “industry e-readiness” is the most important attribute of the e-banking development in Iran. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The well-known fuzzy rule-based Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) model is combined with a set of fuzzy regressions (FR) to investigate the impact of the climate change on the electricity consumption duration. The electricity demand forecasts in the short-terms have a vital application in electricity markets. Knowing that the energy is a product of the relation between the climate change and the average consumption duration of the peak load. The paper introduces a type III TSK fuzzy inference machine combined with a set of linear and nonlinear fuzzy regressors in the consequent part to model effects of the climate change on the electricity demand. However, a simplified version of the model is applied to daily data of the average temperature in Tehran, 2004. First, based on an initially fitted nonlinear curve, an optimization model is employed to cluster data into three groups of cold, temperate and hot. The fuzzy data have been expanded to reduce the temperature volatile property. Then the relation is estimated by the fuzzy regressions in company with the TSK model. Numerical results show high efficiency of the proposed combined fuzzy model, as well as a minor decrease in the average absolute error. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• We propose a novel multi-criteria data envelopment analysis model. • The proposed two-stage DEA is first considered in the presence of ratio data. • Three states are considered (black-box, free-link, and fix-link). • A multi-criteria structure is used to demonstrate the validity of the models proposed. • An illustrative example on the efficiency of 60 sets of bank branches in Iran is provided. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a well-known technique for assessing efficiency levels of decision-making units (DMUs). Very often, available data may be expressed as ratios and, in such cases, traditional DEA models cannot be applied as long as biased efficiency results are produced, yielding the issues of efficiency underestimation and pseudo-inefficiency. In this paper, a novel two-stage MCDEA-R model to handle ratio data is developed observing three distinct assumptions – black-box, free-link, and fixed-link – offering a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) perspective to the efficiency assessment problem in productive networks. While the proposed models are tested by evaluating the efficiency levels of a set of 30 bank branches in Iran, their distinctive features are highlighted in terms of previous literature to model ratio data under network structures. Precisely, there were not only gains in terms of mitigating pseudo-inefficiency and lack of discrimination power of weights issues, but there were also actual gains in terms of efficiency reliability as measured by information entropy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]