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Methods to reliably identify jump discontinuities in biological time series and to assess the specific contribution of various covariates are rapidly progressing. Here, we took advantage of these statistical improvements as well as those seen in complementary, down‐scaled climate and biogeochemical models to investigate causes of the substantial interannual variability observed in recruitment strength in hindcast analyses. This systematic meta‐analysis included 23 data‐rich, commercially valuable, warm‐ and cold‐temperate stocks in the North, Norwegian and Barents Seas. Since this study focuses on recruitment strength variability, we have used the term "recruitment regime shift" to distinguish from the concept of ecosystem regime shift. The breakpoint analysis revealed that the former criterion applied to more than half of the time series, mainly with respect to North Sea stocks but also to those in the Norwegian Sea. The exploratory analysis using vcGAM indicated that 1–3 shifts per stock were real, when using five drivers spanning spawning stock biomass to large‐scale climatic processes. Thus, non‐stationary relationships were extensively prevalent, indicating that each stock is uniquely adapted to its locally varying conditions. Outputs from the stationary GAM resembled those from the vcGAM but not after the threshold year. In‐depth case studies showed that the proxy of a given driver for the process which was to be included should be critically considered in a spatiotemporal context. Furthermore, the stock‐specific uncertainty associated with the given recruitment figures as such should also be an in‐built component of the model construct and thereby in the evaluation of the output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recreational fishing (RF) is a large yet undervalued component of fisheries globally. While progress has been made in monitoring, assessing, and managing the sector in isolation, integration of RF into the management of multi‐sector fisheries has been limited, particularly relative to the commercial sector. This marginalises recreational fishers and reduces the likelihood of achieving the sector's objectives and, more broadly, achieving fisheries sustainability. We examined the nature and extent of RF inclusion in harvest strategies (HSs) for marine fisheries across 15 regions in 11 nations to define the gap in inclusion that has developed between sectors. We focused on high‐income nations with a high level of RF governance and used a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge on HSs due to the paucity of published documents. In total, 339 HSs were considered. We found that RF inclusion in HSs was more similar to the small‐scale sector (i.e., artisanal, cultural, or subsistence) than the commercial sector, with explicit operational objectives, data collection, performance indicators, reference points, and management controls lacking in many regions. Where specified, RF objectives focused on sustainability, economic value and catch allocation rather than directly relating to the recreational fishing experience. Conflicts with other sectors included competition with the commercial sector for limited resources, highlighting the importance of equitable resource allocation policies alongside HSs. We propose that RF be explicitly incorporated into HSs to ensure fisheries are ecologically, economically, and socially sustainable, and we recommend that fisheries organisations urgently review HSs for marine fisheries with a recreational component to close the harvest strategy gap among sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of climate change on ocean productivity sustaining world fisheries are predominantly negative but vary greatly among regions. We assessed how 39 fisheries resources—ranging from data‐poor to data‐rich stocks—in the North East Atlantic are most likely affected under the intermediate climate emission scenario RCP4.5 towards 2050. This region is one of the most productive waters in the world but subjected to pronounced climate change, especially in the northernmost part. In this climate impact assessment, we applied a hybrid solution combining expert opinions (scorings)—supported by an extensive literature review—with mechanistic approaches, considering stocks in three different large marine ecosystems, the North, Norwegian and Barents Seas. This approach enabled calculation of the directional effect as a function of climate exposure and sensitivity attributes (life‐history schedules), focusing on local stocks (conspecifics) across latitudes rather than the species in general. The resulting synopsis (50–82°N) contributes substantially to global assessments of major fisheries (FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, 2020), complementing related studies off northeast United States (35–45°N) (Hare et al., PLoS One, 2016, 11, e0146756) and Portugal (37–42°N) (Bueno‐Pardo et al., Scientific Reports, 2021, 11, 2958). Contrary to prevailing fisheries forecasts elsewhere, we found that most assessed stocks respond positively. However, the underlying, extensive environmental clines implied that North East Atlantic stocks will develop entirely different depending upon the encountered stressors: cold‐temperate stocks at the southern and Arctic stocks at the northern fringes appeared severely negatively impacted, whereas warm‐temperate stocks expanding from south were found to do well along with cold‐temperate stocks currently inhabiting below‐optimal temperatures in the northern subregion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]