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We investigated the hypothesis that synchronous recruitment is due to a shared susceptibility to environmental processes using stock–recruitment residuals for 52 marine fish stocks within three Northeast Pacific large marine ecosystems: the Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, Gulf of Alaska, and California Current. There was moderate coherence in exceptionally strong and weak year-classes and correlations across stocks. Based on evidence of synchrony from these analyses, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to relate recruitment to environmental covariates for groups of stocks that may be similarly influenced by environmental processes based on their life histories. There were consistent relationships among stocks to the covariates, especially within the Gulf of Alaska and California Current. The best Gulf of Alaska model included Northeast Pacific sea surface height as a predictor of recruitment, and was particularly strong for stocks dependent on cross-shelf transport during the larval phase for recruitment. In the California Current the best-fit model included San Francisco coastal sea level height as a predictor, with higher recruitment for many stocks corresponding to anomalously high sea level the year before spawning and low sea level the year of spawning. The best Eastern Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands model included several environmental variables as covariates and there was some consistent response across stocks to these variables. Future research may be able to utilize these across-stock environmental influences, in conjunction with an understanding of ecological processes important across early life history stages, to improve identification of environmental drivers of recruitment.

An assessment of the potential for 17 fish or shellfish stocks or stock groups to move from the sub-Arctic areas into the Arctic Ocean was conducted. A panel of 34 experts was convened to assess the impact of climate change on the potential movement of the 17 stocks or stock groups. The panel considered the exposure of species to climate change, the sensitivity of species to these changes and the adaptive capacity of each stock or stock group. Based on expert opinions, the potential for expansion or movement into the Arctic was qualitatively ranked (low potential, potential, high potential). It is projected that the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free during the summer season, and when this happens new areas will open up for plankton production, which may lead to new feeding areas for fish stocks. Five stocks had a low potential to move to, or expand in, the high Arctic. Six species are considered as potential candidate species to move to, or expand in, the high Arctic. Six stocks had a high potential of establishing viable resident populations in the region. These six stocks exhibit life history characteristics that allow them to survive challenging environmental conditions that will continue to prevail in the north. This study suggests that several life history factors should be considered when assessing the potentiality of a species moving in response to changing climate conditions.

Acoustic trawl surveys were conducted in 2000 and 2001 in two troughs located off the eastern coast of Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska as part of a multiyear, multidisciplinary experiment to examine the influence of environmental conditions on the spatial distribution of adult and juvenile walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and capelin (Mallotus villosus). Continuous underway sea surface temperature samples and water column profiles collected in 2000 and 2001 showed the presence of a sharp shelf-break front in Chiniak Trough and a mid-trough front in Barnabas Trough. At distances

A major reorganization of the North-east Pacific biotatranspired following a climatic ‘regime shift’ in the mid1970s. In this paper, we characterize the effects ofinterdecadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosys-tems of the NE Pacific Ocean. We consider the con-cept of scale in terms of both time and space withinthe North Pacific ecosystem and develop a conceptualmodel to illustrate how climate variability is linked toecosystem change. Next we describe a number of re-cent studies relating climate to marine ecosystem dy-namics in the NE Pacific Ocean. These studies havefocused on most major components of marine ecosys-tems – primary and secondary producers, forage spe-cies, and several levels of predators. They have beenundertaken at different time and space scales. How-ever, taken together, they reveal a more coherentpicture of how decadal-scale climate forcing may affectthe large oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Finally,we synthesize the insight gained from interpretingthese studies. Several general conclusions can bedrawn.1 There are large-scale, low-frequency, and some-times very rapid changes in the distribution of atmo-spheric pressure over the North Pacific which are, inturn, reflected in ocean properties and circulation.2 Oceanic ecosystems respond on similar time andspace scales to variations in physical conditions.3 Linkages between the atmosphere/ocean physicsand biological responses are often different across timeand space scales.4 While the cases presented here demonstrateoceanic ecosystem response to climate forcing, theyprovide only hints of the mechanisms of interaction.5 A model whereby ecosystem response to specifiedclimate variation can be successfully predicted will bedifficult to achieve because of scale mismatches andnonlinearities in the atmosphere–ocean–biospheresystem.INTRODUCTIONIn this paper, we characterize the effects of interde-cadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosystems of theNE Pacific Ocean. Our approach is first to reflect on anumber of recent studies relating climate to marineecosystem dynamics. These studies have focused onmost major components of marine ecosystems – pri-mary and secondary producers; primary, secondary andtop-level predators. They have been undertaken atdifferent time and space scales. However, taken to-gether they begin to reveal a more coherent picture ofhow decadal-scale climate forcing may affect the largeoceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. We then syn-thesize the insight gained from these studies with whatwe know about atmospheric and oceanic physics andhow they affect these marine ecosystems.Of particular importance to this paper is the con-cept of scale. Ricklefs (1990) defines scale as thecharacteristic distance or time associated with varia-tion in natural systems. He goes on to make threeimportant points about why the concept of scale is soimportant to developing an understanding of ecosys-tem structure and dynamics. Every process and pattern has a temporal andspatial extent.

NOAA's Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) contributes information to help forecast year-class strength of walleye pollock (Theragra chakogrammu) in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative estimates of recruitment are obtained from models of stock assessment and stock projection employing information supplied by FOCI. To generate its information, FOCI convenes specialists in marine biology, physical and fisheries oceanography, meteorology, and statistics to assemble and analyse relevant biological and physical time series with respect to recruitment and processes hypothesized to influence fish survival. Statistical methods encompass linear and nonlinear regression, stochastic simulation modelling, transfer function time series modelling, and tree-modelling regression. The current database consists of 31 years of data, and analyses have identified factors that affect ocean stratification and circulation during spring and summer of the fish's birth year as being important to recruitment. A conceptual model of the recruitment process serves as the framework for a recruitment forecast scheme. A stochastic mathematical simulation model of the conceptual model produces similarities between simulated and observed recruitment time series. FOCI has successfully forecast recruitment observed over the past several years.

A series of age-specific life tables for walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the western Gulf of Alaska was compiled for the 1980-91 year classes. The life tables were utilized to perform an exploratory key factor analysis to examine the timing of critical periods in the recruitment process, evidence of densitydependence at different stages and trends in mortality rates. Early larval mortality was significantly correlated with generational mortality (In recruitshpawning biomass), but patterns in juvenile mortality also were similar to generational mortality and in some years were clearly dominant in determining the fate of a cohort. Density-dependent mortality, based on the correlation between mortality and initial abundance, was indicated only for the late larval to early juvenile stage. Time trends were marginally significant for juvenile mortality. It is speculated that the observed increase in juvenile mortality is associated with increasing abundance of arrowtooth flounder. Weaknesses in the data base are discussed; these along with the short time series involved make our conclusions tentative and subject to further study. We hypothesize that pollock recruitment levels can be established at any life stage depending on sufficient supply from prior stages, a type of dynamics which can be termed supply dependent multiple life stage control.