Search

This paper investigates the fluctuation characteristics and asymmetry of cross-correlations between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and agricultural futures prices in China and the US by using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DFA) and multifractal asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-ADCCA). We find that the multifractal cross-correlations exist between EPU and agricultural futures prices, and the cross-correlations are anti-persistent and asymmetric. The anti-persistent cross-correlations in China are all stronger than those in the US. The multifractal degree of cross-correlation between EPU and soybean futures price is lower in China than in the US, while the multifractal degree of cross-correlation between EPU and soybean meal, soybean oil or corn futures price is higher in China than in the US. Moreover, China’s soybean futures price is more susceptible to the upward and downward trends in China’s EPU, while the US soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn futures prices are more susceptible to them in the US EPU.

The fluctuation characteristics of the correlations between China and the US agricultural futures markets have attracted extensive attention from academic circles and government departments. As the main factor that affects the agricultural futures price, the impact of international crude oil futures price on the correlations of the Sino-US agricultural futures markets is also worth discussing. Therefore, this paper adopts the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DFA) and multifractal detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (MF-DPXA) to explore the fluctuation characteristics of cross-correlations for China and the US agricultural futures markets before and after removing the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures price as well as the impact on the cross-correlations. The results show that the fluctuation characteristics of the cross-correlations and partial cross-correlations between the corresponding varieties of China and the US agricultural futures markets as well as among the varieties within the markets are multifractal. The cross-correlation behaviors and the cross-market risks are all affected to varying degrees by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures weaken the cross-market risk of the Sino-US soybean futures, while strengthening the cross-market risk of the Sino-US corn and wheat futures. In addition, the impact of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on the cross-market risks among China agricultural futures is greater than those among the US corresponding agricultural futures.

With the rapid development of economic globalization, the stock markets in China and the US are increasingly linked. The fluctuation features and cross-correlations of the two countries’ markets have attracted extensive attention from market investors and researchers. In this paper, the fractal analysis methods including multifractal asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-ADCCA) and coupled detrended cross-correlation analysis (CDCCA) are applied to explore the volatilities of CSI300 and SP500 sector stock indexes as well as the cross-correlations and coupling cross-correlations between the two corresponding sector stock indexes. The results show that the auto-correlations, cross-correlations and coupling cross-correlations have multifractal fluctuation characteristics, and that the cross-correlations are asymmetric. Additionally, the coupling cross-correlation strengths are distinct due to the different influence of long-range correlations and fat-tailed distribution. Further, the co-movement between China and the US sector stock markets is susceptible to external market factors such as major economic events and national policies.