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Purpose: In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach: This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included "disaster," "emergency," "crisis," "disruptive event," "futures study," "foresight," "scenario," "community-based scenario planning," "participatory scenario planning," "scenario planning" and "scenario analysis." The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings: A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value: The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This paper provides a detailed survey of the greatest dangers facing humanity this century. It argues that there are three broad classes of risks – the "Great Challenges" – that deserve our immediate attention, namely, environmental degradation, which includes climate change and global biodiversity loss; the distribution of unprecedented destructive capabilities across society by dual-use emerging technologies; and value-misaligned algorithms that exceed human-level intelligence in every cognitive domain. After examining each of these challenges, the paper then outlines a handful of additional issues that are relevant to understanding our existential predicament and could complicate attempts to overcome the Great Challenges. The central aim of this paper is to constitute an authoritative resource, insofar as this is possible in a scholarly journal, for scholars who are working on or interested in existential risks. In the author's view, this is precisely the sort of big-picture analysis that humanity needs more of, if we wish to navigate the obstacle course of existential dangers before us.Design/methodology/approach Comprehensive literature survey that culminates in a novel theoretical framework for thinking about global-scale risks.Findings If humanity wishes to survive and prosper in the coming centuries, then we must overcome three Great Challenges, each of which is sufficient to cause a significant loss of expected value in the future.Originality/value The Great Challenges framework offers a novel scheme that highlights the most pressing global-scale risks to human survival and prosperity. The author argues that the "big-picture" approach of this paper exemplifies the sort of scholarship that humanity needs more of to properly understand the various existential hazards that are unique to the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to synthesize trends, issues, and policies related to development using a database of Searchlight reports. The paper seeks to utilize three techniques – conceptual tree visualizations to uncover patterns impacting regional development; network analysis to compare and contrast urbanization in South Asia and Southern Africa; and sentiment analysis to assess various sectors of development that elicit positive and negative reactions.Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents a synthesis based on a unique database that was developed using a novel scoring scheme to quantify the development concepts presented in 312 Searchlight articles in a period between September 2009 and December 2010.Findings – Primary and secondary concepts define an ontology that can be visualized to provide an overall synthesis of a subset of the Searchlight database. Social issues were significant in Asia, climate change narrative in Africa, and governance in Latin America. In terms of sentiments, negative sentiments tended to overshadow optimism. However, technology and knowledge was seen as a panacea along with social entrepreneurship in some regions of Asia. There is also a realization that newer issues related to climate change, resource and energy depletion, food insecurity and the current financial crisis will exacerbate present difficult conditions.Practical implications – The paper suggests that qualitative data presented in various articles could be synthesized and visualized using data mining techniques. This methodology provides a comprehensive way to capture knowledge and insights provided by development experts to coherently share and discuss the multitude of common global challenges of the twenty-first century.Originality/value – The visualizations and data mining techniques are developed for this study context. The approach can add value by tracking and monitoring current and emerging trends relevant to the Foundation's strategic framework, operational initiatives, and areas of work. Parts of this paper have been presented in a previous publication (see www.bu.edu/pardee/publications-library/connecting-the-dots/). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- This paper aims to present uncomfortable questions about the viability of alternative energy technologies, which arise during economic contraction but are scarcely addressed within media and academia. Design/methodology/approach -- The author identifies and graphically illustrates distinct differences between media coverage of energy production and energy reduction strategies during an oil price shock beginning in 2003. Findings -- In writing about alternative energy production, journalists used promising storytelling and future-oriented language to frame these technologies as solutions to climate change. Meanwhile, journalists described energy reduction strategies using mundane language anchored in the present and not as strongly linked to climate change. For example, one in seven articles associated alternative energy production with energy independence. Only 1 in 5,000 linked energy reduction strategies to energy independence. Research limitations/implications -- These observations loosely illustrate a pervasive energy production ethos (a reflexive network including behaviors, symbols, expectations and material conditions). Considering this ethos during a time of economic contraction exposes hidden assumptions about alternative energy technologies and the fossil fuels that they are expected to replace, as well as numerous unasked questions. For instance, does the high cost of alternative energy ultimately reveal hidden fossil fuel use behind the curtain? Where does the high cost of alternative energy ultimately accrue, if not to fossil fuels (via labor, materials, etc.)? Practical implications -- This paper presents questions that journalists, policymakers, energy researchers and students can use to critically assess energy narratives. Originality/value -- This paper critically explores numerous assumptions, which undergird belief that renewable energy production will ease hardship during transitions toward contraction and degrowth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purposes of this paper are as follows. Part one examines the role of denialism in the context of proposals advanced through the much-abused Limits to Growth (LtG) project. Part two uses three sets of criteria (domains of reality, worldviews and values) to characterise some of the interior human and social aspects of the "denial machine." It uses these criteria to address some vital, but currently under-appreciated "interior" aspects of descent. (N.B. A succinct "primer" or overview of the concept an underpinning rationale for notions of "descent pathways" is provided in the introduction to this special issue.) Design/methodology/approach -- The paper draws on a number of authoritative sources that track the dimensions of global change and, specifically, the ways that humanity is tracking towards Dystopian overshoot-and-collapse futures. The significance of the LtG project is assessed in this context. Part two employs the criteria noted above to identify and open out the centrality of the human and cultural interiors. Findings -- Responses to the LtG project are shown to have deprived humanity of the clarity and will to respond effectively to the emerging global emergency. The rise of climate change denialism has followed suit and made effective responses increasingly difficult. A new focus, however, on some of the dynamics of reality domains, worldviews and values, clarifies both the nature of the problem and prefigures a range of solutions, some of which are briefly outlined. Research limitations/implications -- This is primarily a conceptual paper that suggests a range of practical responses. For example, re-purposing parts of the current information technology (IT) infrastructure away from financial and economic indices to those tracking the health of the planet. Also translating the case put forward here for a new generation of Institutions of Foresight (IoFs) into real-world start-ups and examples. Further research is needed into the uses and limitation, both of positive and negative views of futures. It is suggested that the latter have more value than is commonly realised. Practical implications -- In addition to those stated above, the practical implications include new uses for IT infrastructure based on worldcentric -- rather than financial and economic worldviews; designing and implementing a new generation of IoFs; and finding new ways to inform the public of impending Dystopian outcomes without exacerbating avoidance and depression. Social implications -- The social implications are profound. Currently, humanity has allowed itself to "tune out" and ignore many of the well-founded "signals" (from the global system) and warnings (from those who have observed and tracked real-world changes). As a result, it has outgrown the capacity of the planet to support the current population, let alone the 10 billion currently projected by the United Nations (UN). Something must give. Applied foresight can provide essential lead time to act before human actions are overwhelmed by forces beyond its control. Originality/value -- The paper draws together material from hitherto disparate sources to assess the LtG project. It also deploys key concepts from an integral perspective that shed new light on human and cultural forces that determine how people respond to the prospect of Dystopian futures. In so doing, it provides insight into why we are where we are and also into some of the means by which humanity can respond. Specifically, it suggests a shift from collapse narratives to those of descent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The paper aims to examine the contribution of information and communication technology (ICT) to climate change, the origins of ICT unsustainability and explores some possible remedies. Design/methodology/approach - The paper draws on a variety of sources to survey the many problems of sustainable ICTs; their energy consumption trends; planned obsolescence; hazardous materials and hazardous disposal; and analyses the way forward. Findings - Highlights the unsustainability of many ICT trends, e.g. power consumption in data centers, and the extent to which ICT affects progress towards an economy's environmental sustainability. Originality/value - This paper provides a novel approach to ICT sustainability, highlighting unsustainability of current software technology and related hardware trends, especially the threat of operating systems to planetary sustainability, as well as the growing power consumption trends in data centers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the threat of climate change increasing, carbon sequestration could be expected to play a significant role in alleviating this problem. Unfortunately, the technology is not well understood and good literature overviews of the options in carbon sequestration are lacking. Hence, policy and research priorities are made without full understanding of the state of scientific knowledge, impacts, and policy trade-offs. This paper contributes to the literature, providing a basic picture of the technological options for futurists and policy advisors to begin to address this need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on a study on the environmental and social challenges that are threatening the sustainability of human civilization. The study aims to investigate and also suggests strategies for influencing policy and practice. According to the study, futurists want to bring desirable future for human civilization and the key findings of the study include science and technology foresight, getting sustainability challenges onto the social agenda and small-scale. It also states that challenges which have threaten human beings include the threat of dangerous climate change, unsustainable growth in resource use and loss of supporting ecosystems.

The article offers information regarding the concept of smart globalization. It identifies links with the Rockefeller Foundation's philanthropic activities in a number of areas, including health, climate change, urbanization, economic insecurities, and basic survival needs. It discusses how a new conceptualization of globalization intersects with the field of foresight by describing the Rockefeller Foundation's approach to addressing complex issues of human development. It mentions that people reap the positive benefits of revolutionary advances in health and medicine and profound progress in physical and social sciences.

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to evaluate the linkages between the technological, market and political environment in the wind power industry and their contribution to market diffusion. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation is based on a literature review of the wind power industry and policy issues in selected countries, patent and financial analyses of leading European firms and semi-structured interviews of energy experts. Findings – The results reveal that the industry is policy-driven and appropriate energy politics are crucial in continuing the rapid wind power market diffusion during the next decades. Wind power technologies are in an accelerating stage of evolution, and competitive technologies contribute to market diffusion and firms’ financial performance. However, without adequate energy subsidies and emission trading schemes, the industry will not be competitive in the energy markets, where other energy sources, including fossil fuels, are also subsidized. Research limitations/implications – This case focuses mainly on the leading European industry actors and has a European perspective in policy issues. The analyses are limited to the main support mechanisms and countries where the diffusion of renewable energy has been rapid. Practical implications – The wind power industry is still in the emerging phase in its life cycle, and well-planned and efficiently implemented public support schemes are needed in order for the firms to compete successfully in the markets. The industry will probably be competitive without subsidies in 10-20 years. Originality/value – The evaluation of the given indicators and political environment will give insight into the competitive environment and factors behind the diffusion of emerging technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information regarding the current global trends in energy supply and consumption. It discusses two central energy challenges faced currently including securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy, and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. It mentions that decisive action is needed to expand energy access and to arrest the potential impacts of climate change in poor countries. It reports that due to the absence of new policies, global trends in energy supply and consumption are unsustainable. It also presents the use of fuelwood, charcoal, agricultural waste and animal dung by the people to meet most of the daily energy needs for cooking and heating.