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Purpose: Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030. Design/methodology/approach: Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert's judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, "sustainable and green economy" and "emerging technology development" are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis. Findings: The results suggest four main scenarios of "Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold," "Towards Sustainability with Green Gold," "Productivity with Black Gold" and "Desperation with Black Gold." They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The "Productivity with Black Gold" and the "Towards Sustainability with Green Gold" are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran. Originality/value: This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran's energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of the study is to show the technical potentials of a variety of renewable energy sources in Russia, as well as benefits from their deployment including hydrocarbon savings, emission reduction and lower energy cost.Design/methodology/approach In the paper, Russia is compared with other countries in terms of actual installed capacity and its dynamics, actual and projected share of renewables in the energy mix. The authors offer calculations of the technical potentials (fuel, heat energy, electrical energy, resource saving and environmental) of renewables (solar PV, wind, biomass, geothermal, low-grade heat, small hydro), identify social and economic preconditions and key effects of their deployment.Findings The paper features calculations on the renewable energy technology potential, based on the data by Andreenko et al. (2015), authors' calculations and statistical data. This study proves that the cumulative technical potential of the renewables in Russia amounts to 133,935 million units of oil equivalent. This study also offers assessments of oil fuel, black coal and natural gas savings that may be achieved by replacing fossil fuels with renewables; assessments of avoided air pollution calculated as CO- and CO2-equivalents.Originality/value The paper fills in the gap of comprehensive assessments of renewable energy potentials in Russia and a variety of effects that their deployment may entail, based on a single integral methodology. The authors offer a new evaluation of existing and future renewable energy potentials, overcoming the methodological and data constraints faced by previous similar studies. The up-to-date, comprehensive and accurate data will help make the right investment and policy choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This paper aims to highlight efforts of an emerging market economy, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in complementing the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) initiative. This is a growing phenomenon that has brought about a major shift in the international business landscape with emerging markets at the center.Design/methodology/approach – The exploratory nature of the paper prompted the need to draw upon media reports and other official documents in a bid to stimulate academic interest in Masdar City – the world's first zero-carbon city in Abu Dhabi (capital of the UAE) as a business case illustration.Findings – Masdar City remains arguably the world's acclaimed first zero-carbon, zero-waste city fully powered by renewable energy and poised to attract leading international expertise, academics, commerce, and residents. It also sets a standard for other emerging market players to emulate in this resurgent wave in the "internationalisation of innovation into emerging markets".Social implications – The aspiration to live within ecological limits and still improve the quality of people's lives is undoubtedly the cornerstone for sustainable development. Be that as it may, developments at Masdar City would require further monitoring and of course academic and policy research into how it feeds into (as well as feeds off) the international support enjoyed by this emerging market.Originality/value – By highlighting the efforts made in the UAE, in addition to securing headquarter status for IRENA and the rapid development of Masdar City, it looks quite obvious that the time for reflection is nigh and to learn lessons from the successful communities and emulate the ideas and innovations of these communities by the backward and not so successful nations and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of communication, resources, disposition and bureaucratic structure to the success of energy subsidy policy, to examine the effect of moderation of variable scenario of renewable energy policy on the influence of communication, resources, disposition and bureaucracy structure on the success of energy subsidy policy.Design/methodology/approach This study was purposively (based on specific objectives) conducted in Jakarta, which is associated with the implementation and subsidy policy scenario, the study focused on the center of government, namely, the capital city, Jakarta. Collection of data in this research survey was conducted in June-August 2017. The sampling technique was proportional stratified random sampling that took up most of the 770 members of Masyarakat Peduli Energi dan Lingkungan and Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia using a representative sample of results that have the ability to be generalized. Based on the formula Slovin (Solimun and Fernandes, 2017), a sample of 145 respondents was obtained. The research approach used was a quantitative with the analysis tool called the generalized structure component analysis.Findings This paper exhibited that all relationships between variables have a p-value of 0.05 except the third moderation and fourth moderation relationship. So it can be said that all relationships between variables are significant except the relationship between the variables of moderation to the relationship between the disposition variable (X3) on the successful implementation of subsidy policy (Y) and the relationship between the moderation variable to the relationship between bureaucracy structure variable (X4) to the successful implementation of subsidy policy.Originality/value The originality of the research refers to the following: The Policy Theory described by Edwards III (1980), and reinforced by the findings of Ratminto and Winarsih (2005), and Bloom et al. (2009), that communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures affect the success of the energy subsidy policy. This becomes the formulation of a hypothesized research problem whether communication, resources, disposition and bureaucratic structure affect the success of the energy subsidy policy. In fact, the conditions in Indonesia are quite different from the Western world, and the system in Indonesia has embraced subsidies. Therefore, this study also examines the moderating effects of renewable energy policy scenarios in the relationship between communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures on the success of the subsidy policy energy. Given that there is no strong theory that examines the effects of moderation of these four factors on the success of the energy subsidy policy. Therefore, as the development of Edward III Theory, this study examines the proposition of whether renewable energy policy scenarios reinforce or weaken (moderation effects) on the effects of communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures on the success of energy subsidy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This paper aims to use quantitative metrics to chart the unique history leading to Brazil’s leadership in renewable energy and identifies a set of meta-scenarios that define possible future carbon performance. These meta-scenarios provide a context for discussing specific energy policy implications both at the national scale and from the perspective of Brazil’s urban centres.Design/methodology/approach The paper defines and uses three metrics – energy efficiency, decarbonisation and carbon efficiency – to plot both Brazil’s historic energy pathway and a set of future energy scenarios put forth by various national and international energy agencies. The authors then use a meta-scenario approach to group these alternate pathways, identifying specific policy levers associated with the realisation of each.Findings The authors identify plausible policy changes that will help move Brazil off a current trajectory of stagnated energy performance to a “greener” scenario in which carbon efficiency improves even as Brazil’s economic growth continues. Such policies include energy efficiency programmes and continued expansion of the country’s already extensive hydropower and biomass capacity. Adoption of policies that would put Brazil on a more aggressive path towards a global sustainability scenario currently seems impractical.Originality/value This paper brings a standardized set of metrics to bear on Brazil’s unique energy history, which in turn helps identify specific policy impacts for continued GHG reduction in Brazil’s future from national and urban perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the future prospects of innovative services linked to sustainable energy systems. Design/methodology/approach – Service perspective is examined in the context of socio-technical transition and linked to the bottom-up and top-down social processes that foster sustainability. The foresight method applied is trend analysis. Findings – Two groups of trends were identified: the trends driven by technological development and the trends focussing on societal, managerial and consumer issues. The former consists of renewable energy sources, hybrid solutions, smart grids and smart energy markets. The latter involves distributed energy production, demand response, optimisation of sustainability and the role of energy as an opportunity and as service. The study reveals that energy is increasingly understood as a comprehensive and tailor-made service solution for communities and individual households. Consumers will enter the energy market as active participants; it raises the need for many types of services. Research limitations/implications – Deepening of understanding is required in several topics of this study, and more formal methods of foresight are needed to test the generalisability of its qualitative results. Practical implications – More effective policy measures are needed for fostering new services and social and system innovations in the area of sustainable energy. Innovation management practices should be developed in these areas. Originality/value – The paper aims to narrow the research gap linked to foresight in services by examining services in the area of sustainable energy systems – one of the “grand challenges” today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose |!|#8211; This paper aims to present a forecast for renewable energy production in the USA. Growth curves are used to conduct the forecasts.Design/methodology/approach |!|#8211; The analysis is based upon a literature review, supplemented by collection of secondary data. The study then focuses on applying the Pearl growth curve.Findings |!|#8211; The authors|!|#39; results show that biomass energy production is growing the fastest followed by geothermal and wind. Additionally, the forecast for solar energy production shows little to no growth over the next two decades.Research limitations/implications |!|#8211; If the US government hopes to achieve its goals in renewable energy, considerable funding and incentives will have to be put forth to accelerate the growth of renewable energy. Since the biomass technology is already growing nicely it makes sense to put the additional resources behind the other three technologies to close the 10.3 percent gap being forecasted. The government also needs to put more funding into dual renewable plants such as wind or solar combines with pumped hydro, this will ensure environmental and reliability are both maintained. Finally, for renewable energies to be competitive in the long term, considerable research needs to go into driving down the cost so there is not a need for subsidies.Originality/value |!|#8211; This study provides value in providing a forecast for expected future growth for renewable energy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the economy of Persian Gulf countries following a post-oil economy. This is accompanied with a futurology study and planning of certain scenarios that can be applied to these countries.Design/methodology/approach – This study applies a futurology approach by investigating various scenarios to explore the Arab economy after oil. As such, a series of possible policies are proposed that can be undertaken by Arab countries depending on their public policy. Each of the suggested policies involves different scenarios that have been formed and analyzed using an era-based cellular planning system.Findings – The findings propose three main policies to be undertaken by Arab countries including: investing the oil income in miscellaneous economic baskets in order to minimize the vulnerability and maximize the profits; reducing the oil production in the coming years and transforming the one-product oil economy to a value added petrochemical economy; and seeking new sources of income and wealth. In addition, findings emphasize the necessity for using renewable and lasting wealth resources and minimizing the dependency of countries on the oil economy.Originality/value – The proposed scenarios in the study can act as strategic constructs in strengthening the scenario sets in the consecutive years and help develop other scenarios in the future. As such, this paper would be of interest to governmental advisors, strategic planners and policy-makers involved in studies related to the Middle East. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this special issue is first to highlight the need for wider understanding of the "civilisational challenge" facing humanity, as it encounters and then exceeds significant limits to growth. The second is to present material that provides grounds for developing effective responses. Design/methodology/approach -- The issue draws on evidence from previous research, economic modelling and a range of other sources to investigate the hypothesis that humanity is heading towards an "overshoot and collapse" future. It further suggests that a useful way of responding is to explore the possibility that the prospect of collapse can be moderated or avoided through a process of "conscious descent." Findings -- The main findings are that a very wide spectrum of policies, actions, strategies and options is available that can and should be used to help us avoid the most disastrous manifestations of "overshoot and collapse." Yet there are also many barriers and impediments that continue to inhibit effective responses. This means that the process of coming to grips with the "civilisational challenge" will take longer and become increasingly costly. Denialism and short term thinking remain embedded in dominant institutions and mainstream practice. Currently, vastly more is miss-spent on various perverse incentives (e.g. advertising, the funding of denial, fossil fuel subsidies) than on securing the future of civilisation. This can be seen as a consequence of outdated values and inadequate worldviews. Research limitations/implications -- The contributions here represent a sample from within a rapidly expanding field of enquiry and action. They should therefore be seen as indicating the need for further high quality investigation, work and action. The main implication is that this process needs to be taken seriously, properly resourced and eventually transformed into a mainstream social project. Originality/value -- The papers are contributions to an in-depth understanding of a complex and evolving situation. Their value lies in the fact that greater understanding and a commitment to early action are among the most productive investments available to societies vulnerable to the systemic threats outlined here. As such, the special issue evokes a fundamental tenet of foresight work in general. Or to put this in the words of Bertrand de Jouvenel, "the proof of improvidence lies in falling under the empire of necessity." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the future of energy storage technologies in the U.S. It focuses on the need of employment of additional technologies on the bulk power system by the energy storage equipment industry, as a reason of the growing usage renewable energies in the US. It also mentions of a two step methodology based on the evaluation of the potential energy storage technologies, and forecast on such technologies, that can become a viable solution for future energy demands. It regards compressed air energy as the fastest growing complimentary technology to wind energy due to its great potential.