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With the advent of the European bioeconomy and a shift in lifestyle among European citizens, non-wood forest products (NWFPs) are given more attention in the public debate. Their potential to strengthen the economic viability of rural economies appears to be high, particularly in regions where wood is not the most profitable forest product. However, information on NWFP production potentials are scarce and tools to support forest owners in decision making about NWFP management are rarely available. Considering the complex relationships between a sustained production of NWFPs, the use of the available ecological resources, as well as the organizational and the market potential of forest management regimes, we introduce a knowledge-based expert model for supporting NWFP management. In a mixed-method approach qualitative and quantitative techniques are combined to depict regional production and business potentials of NWFPs, explicitly addressing different environmental and socio-economic contexts. For the model building multi-criteria analysis methods were used for preference elicitations in an iterative form, including stakeholders and experts. Within two distinct case study settings (i.e. Austria and Finland) the expert model is tested for applicability and to depict the most suitable option from a suite of selected NWFPs. Results for both case studies well reflect current NWFP business potentials and provide insights to the opportunities of mixing more resilient and more risky NWFPs to a solid regional business portfolio, fostering the co-production of wood and non-wood resources. The approach presented has a potential to steer the mindset of different forest owner types to critically revise their interests in forest management. It could act as an eye-opener for forestry-oriented stakeholders who have not yet considered NWFPs as potential assets in forest management systems. With its ability to include various NWFPs and to consider different forest owner preferences, future applications can be tailored towards the needs of both small-scale (non-industrial) forest owners and bigger forest holdings.

Exactly how do forest bureaucracies manoeuvre to regain power and maximise benefits in the bewildering legal, financial, and administrative field of forest decentralisation? Based on a review of thirty management plans, stakeholder consultations, intensive interactions with six forest user groups, forest officials, and donor project employees in Nepal, we document the mechanisms of legal-sounding re-centralisation. The central tenet is that bureaucratically established procedures, which are not required by law but treated as if they were, are used to impose regular revisions of community forest management plans. Meagre government or more generous donor budgets financed the revisions. Forest bureaucrats and/or consultants did the work and benefitted financially. None of the approaches, however, lived up to technical, scientific standards or followed stipulated participatory processes. The revised plans were almost identical to their previous versions and differences mostly a result of mere desk exercises to fulfil donor requirements and government orders, at least on paper. While legitimised by a perceived promotion of rational, technical sound, and equitable forest governance, the main function of plan revisions appears to be strengthening or re-establishing the forest bureaucracy's control over community forest resources which allows forest bureaucrats to tap into donor project and forest product value chains.

This study explored the consequences for the forest sector of a trade agreement between Australia, Canada, Chile, Brunei Darussalam, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam (TPP12), and of an extension to include India, China and the Republic of Korea (TPP15). The forecasts used a partial equilibrium model to predict the effects of reduced trade costs due to tariff elimination and of forest product demand shifts resulting from the macroeconomic impacts of TPP12 and TPP15 predicted by Narayanan and Sharma (http://wtocentre.iift.ac.in/workingpaper/workingpaper14.pdf). The results showed the effects of the agreements on the consumption, production, and trade of roundwood, sawnwood and panels, and pulp and paper, for the countries directly involved in the agreements, the European Union, and the rest of the world (ROW). Under TPP12, the main total welfare gains of wood producers and forest product consumers were in the United States and Vietnam, and the greatest losses in China and Korea. Global welfare gains were considerably larger under TPP15, to the advantage of China, Japan and Korea, but to the detriment of the United States, the European Union and the ROW.

Import demand for wood pellets by the European Union (EU) was investigated using a source-differentiated non-linear Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with monthly data from 2009 to 2015. Our research provides the first complete set of expenditure, price and cross-price elasticities for this rapidly expanding forest product market. Expenditure elasticities reveal that wood pellets from the United States have the most to gain from an expansion in EU expenditures, followed by Canada, while Russia has the least to gain. We attribute this result to differences in the quality, reliability and sustainability of wood pellet supply between the countries. The degree of substitution among the major suppliers was also assessed through cross-price elasticities.

Forest resource extraction evolves with commodification and shifts in product use and demand. Tourism is a major economic sector that represents approximately 10% of the global GDP and has the potential to drive major changes in forest activities. In the last three decades the boom of coastal tourism created new markets for the emergent community forestry sector in Quintana Roo (SE Mexico). Employing ethnobotanical and archival research methods we analyzed the evolution of management and use of three distinct forest products used in tourism architecture: polewood, thatching materials and chicozapote tree ( Manilkara zapota ) posts. Current models explain processes of forest product substitution and management intensification either in terms of economic efficiency and resource depletion, or power differences. Our results suggest the need to expand our understanding of extractive cycles to explicitly incorporate multi-scale governance, shifting values, and external shocks (i.e., hurricanes) as major drivers of change of forest products.

This study assesses the impacts of the China-US trade war on the global forest product markets using the bilateral trade flow module of the Global Forest Products Model. Two alternative scenarios are compared to the business-as-usual situation: (1) the US charges 25% tariff on $200 billion of goods imported from China, which in return imposes differentiated tariffs on $60 billion of goods imported from the US; (2) the US raises the tariff rate from 25% to 30% and China adds extra tariffs on $75 billion of imported goods. It is found that China's imports of sawnwood and waste paper from the US and the US imports of plywood and other paper from China decreased significantly. Meanwhile, some of the trade flows between China and the US shifted to other parts of the world. Vietnam and New Zealand were the largest winners while Thailand suffered a relatively heavy loss. Product substitution occurred mainly in Asia and Europe, and price changes were within 10%. Overall, China benefited slightly, but the US experienced a loss. These findings have broad policy implications for international trade.

This is the first study in a global context exploring the state of industrial timberland ownership and control and modelling of the binary choice of ownership strategy. In our sample of the 100 largest forest product companies in 2012, 40 have timberland ownership and 51 are integrated into timberland by ownership or leasing arrangements. The descriptive analysis indicates that the vertical integration strategies vary between companies from different regions. Despite recent timberland divestments in North America and the Nordic countries, the area reported for timberland in ownership and control among the top 100 companies has increased between 2007 and 2012 due to growth in emerging countries. The results of logistic regression analysis indicate that larger, more profitable and pulp-production oriented companies are more likely to be vertically integrated into timberland. The underlying reason can be that the pulp producers are financially more vulnerable to the risks associated with a reliable flow of raw material to their mills. In a dynamic market situation with increasing competition over arable land, more research is required to understand the interplay between global strategies across different forest industry companies, and between forestry and other forms of land use.

Forests provide many benefits (e.g., esthetics, water purification, habitat, carbon sequestration) to humans when they are conserved. However, forest conservation efforts may conflict with other uses, particularly timber harvest. Incentives for forest conservation can be established through payment for ecosystem services (PES) policies. PES policies rely on forest valuation studies which traditionally have valued the whole forest, or characteristics of a forest. Methods that allow variability in estimated forest values over space can provide valuation information at a finer scale and aid in the optimization of PES policies. These spatially explicit values provide information critical to many policy decisions, particularly conservation prioritization and planning. Using moderate resolution satellite remote sensing (i.e., LandSat) and a forest use survey conducted in Kam Cha i, Thailand, methods to estimate forest product valuation for spatially heterogeneous plots are demonstrated. These estimates are produced using geographic information system (GIS) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). The MCDA method combines forest use data with associated travel costs and vegetation cover estimates to provide spatially explicit estimates of forest values. This information is then used to compare local use values against potential carbon credit values estimated from the literature. The results show that a majority of the forest plots have higher PES values than for local forest products. Some do not, however, which suggests a possible cause for resistance against potential PES policies implemented in these areas.

The study emphasised the basic factors which are responsible for influencing China's forest product group trade. The gravity model approach is applied on forest product group 44, 47, 48, 49 and 94 by using panel data from period 2001 to 2018. Panel unit root test shows that factor affecting variables are stationary for all models while, the Hausman test is used for suitable model selection. Results revealed that GDP and GDPC have a positive impact on trade, whereas distance has an inverse impact on trade. Other factor used in the study also has a significant effect on the China trade. The forest trade is significantly affected after the global economic crises and countervailing/antidumping duties imposed by USA and other countries on China. Similarly, APEC and OECD have significant impact on China bilateral trade of forest products. This study concluded that it would be better to promote exports and import to countries having large economies or short distance countries. It is suggested that by promote Chinese language to partner countries can increase the trade flow of China's forest product group trade.

Spatial spillover is widespread in forest product trade. We employ a spatial autoregressive (SAR) interaction model to analyze spatial spillover effects of global forest product trade in 2004 and 2014 and their underlying determinants. The SAR interaction model, specified with three types of spatial dependence (origin-to-origin, destination-to-destination and origin-to-destination) can account for the complex spatial interconnection of forest product trade, leading to unbiased and consistent estimates of effects of determinants on trade flows. Although all the spatial dependence parameters are statistically significant, the spatial interconnectivity was much stronger among destination countries than across origin countries. The identified spatial dependence reflects a core-periphery structure of the trade network. The effect decomposition shows that changes in the principal explanatory variables in the SAR interaction model had a greater total effect (TE) on trade flows in 2014 than in 2004. This attributes to a substantial increase of the origin effect (OE), destination effect (DE) and network effect (NE) from 2004 to 2014. Especially, NE rose by a big margin during this period and accounted for approximately 45% of TE in 2014 for each determinant. Based on the magnitude of NE that represents the spatial spillover effect, gross domestic product (GDP) ranked first, followed by gross national income (GNI) per capita, roundwood production per capita and tariffs. Besides the strong evidence of spatial spillover effects, we also find that countries tended to mimic their neighbors in forest product trade engagements. Our findings shed new light on the spatial interconnection of global forest product trade and offer implications for future trade and forest conservation policy design.

Nepal's forests have been transferred to community management with the twin objectives of supplying forest products and addressing local environmental problems. Community forests provide a range of benefits, from direct forest products such as timber and non-provisioning ecosystem services such as soil protection. There is a need to understand the extent to which environmental and community benefits are joint products or substitutes. Stochastic frontier production analysis (SFPA) was used to study the production relationship between environmental and community benefits and production efficiency analysis to study the extent to which communities were able to achieve maximum benefits. SFPA indicated that the magnitude of direct forest product benefits was influenced by various socioeconomic and forest related factors such as distance to the government office, community forest size, and group heterogeneity negatively affect community forest products benefits. On the other hand, links to the market, forest products dependency, and the number of households in the community augment benefits from community forests. In addition, forest product benefits and environmental benefits were complementary to each other. Production efficiency analysis showed that communities were not producing forest products efficiently. Factors such as social capital contributed positively to production efficiency, whereas caste heterogeneity in the executive committees of community forest user groups was negatively associated with efficiency. These findings can contribute to better implementation of community forestry programmes in Nepal, improving the welfare of communities by increasing direct forest product benefits without environmental harm.

In southwestern Ethiopia honey is a non-timber forest product that provides income for many smallholders. Some of these beekeepers supply their honey under contract to a company that markets their organic honey internationally allowing them to access premium markets. Since both production and marketing depend crucially on the forest, both smallholders and the company have an interest in preserving the forest. An important question is whether smallholders also benefit economically from supplying under contract. The objective of this study is to examine the contribution of participation in contract supply of organic honey to beekeepers' income levels in the Sheka zone in southwestern Ethiopia. Results indicate that contract supply improved quality of honey delivered, the prices beekeepers received, and total honey income per household. The findings illustrate the potential of contract supply of forest product for sustainable management of forests.

Projects and policies targeted at reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD +) frequently emphasize the articulation of property rights that are new, formalized or revised. A major question for successful REDD + implementation, and forest sector reform more broadly, is how changes in formal rights are understood and internalized by resource users. This paper explores the determinants of knowledge of formal rights, and whether accurate knowledge of rights influences forest clearing and forest product harvesting behavior in Uganda. We find limited awareness of rules surrounding clearing forest, and mixed levels of awareness regarding rights to harvest specific forest products. Harvesting behavior is variably correlated with awareness of rights depending on the product and capacity of district forest officials.

Rural households across developing countries rely on diversified sources of income, and forest resources play important role in this regard. This study was designed with the objectives of assessing the contribution of forests to annual income of rural households and identifying its determinants using the case of Jelo Afromontane forest in eastern Ethiopia. It also examined the gender dimensions of forest income, and how this income varies with the wealth status of households. Key informant interview, focus group discussion and household-based questionnaire survey were used to collect data. On average, income from crop production accounted for 40.7% of the total annual household income. Forest income was second in importance, contributing 32.6%. Income from livestock, off- and non-farm activities, and woodlots accounted for 13.6%, 11.4%, and 1.7% of the total household income respectively. Firewood was the most used forest product and constituted the largest proportion (79%) of the total forest income. The contribution of forest income to the total household income varied significantly (P < 0.05) with wealth category. Forest income was more important for poor households (47.3%) than for medium (30.5%) or rich (20.2%) households. It was also more important for female headed households (58.2%) than for male headed households (29%). The gender dimension of forest income was also apparent within the household. Female members generated about four times more forest income (77% of the household forest income) than male members (23%). The sex of the household head (P < 0.01) and distance to the forest (P < 0.05) were the two determinant variables that significantly affected forest income out of the eight explanatory variables considered in the regression model. Policy to promote new forest management arrangement such as participatory forest management (PFM) in Jelo forest needs to take into account the major forest users and the types of products they depend on, and be accompanied with other poverty reduction measures so that improved forest conservation outcome will not have negative consequences on local livelihoods, particularly on poor and women, who depend most on the forest.

Exploring extent and pattern of non-timber forest product (NTFP) income contribution to livelihoods of forest-adjacent people and the income related socio-economic factors is crucial in designing any development and conservation initiative. This paper examines NTFPs' role in contributing to the household economy and how different socio-economic factors may influence this contribution. Field methods involved quantitative and qualitative data collection of forest-adjacent households of Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh. Results show that the contribution of different types of NTFPs to household economy varies in terms of subsistence and cash income. However, overall NTFP income is much higher than income from timber or firewood which indicates a larger dependence of the households on NTFPs. Income data analysis also finds that the poor households are relatively more dependent on NTFPs for their subsistence and cash income than the better-off households. Moreover, the study reveals that there are many other socio-economic factors at the household level such as number of members in household and total value of household implements and furniture that are significantly correlated with the NTFP income. More site-specific applied research on NTFP income and influential factors is necessary to generalize the findings for other parts of the world with similar socio-economic and environmental settings.

Well-estimated elasticities of demand are important for making long-run projections in demand for forest products. In this research, cluster analysis is used to group 180 countries contained within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), using cross-sectional data for per capita gross domestic product (GDP), forest coverage, and per capita consumption of forest products, for forest products including plywood, particleboard, fiberboard, newsprint, printing and writing paper, and other paper and paperboard. The application of cluster analysis prior to estimating the elasticities of demand solves the problem of data availability in estimating elasticities by grouping countries based on variables identified from economics theory and enabling the extension of elasticity estimates to countries that are similar to others in a cluster, but without data for directly estimating elasticties. Mean absolute deviation is used for data standardization, and the k-medoids approach and silhouette technique are used in cluster analysis. Statistics of clusters for every forest product show various combinations of countries with similar levels of per capita GDP, forest coverage, and consumption, such as a cluster with high per capita GDP, low forest coverage, and high consumption of the discussed forest product. The results of the cluster analysis are validated by a one-way analysis of means and multiple comparisons. Countries for panel analysis are selected based on time series data availability and quality. As implied by cluster analysis, some of the countries in the cluster can be used to represent the whole cluster. In this research, long-run static models, short-run dynamic models, and long-run dynamic models of demand are estimated using panel data analysis for countries in each cluster using data from 1992 to 2007 and 9 to 44 countries in each cluster. We found that long-run dynamic elasticities are higher than short-run dynamic estimations, and dynamic model estimations outperform static model estimations as shown in RMSE statistics.

article i nfo Foreign direct investment Forest products trade Real exchange rate Exchange rate volatility Domestic capital expenditure In this study we examine the trends and various factors influencing bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.S. and Canadian forest industry between 1989 and 2008. Using panel data analysis methods, we find that bilateral FDI is positively influenced by depreciation of host country's real exchange rates and exchange rate volatility, and home country's forest product imports and exports and round wood production, and negatively by home country's GDP, current outward FDI position in the rest of the world, and current domestic capital expenditure has no effect on the FDI in the forest industry. These results imply that both imports and exports are complementary to outward FDI and that bilateral FDI is a substitute of FDI to the rest of the word.

In this paper, a simulation model of the Austrian forest-based sector (FOHOW) was used to assess the effects of increasing wood utilization for energy production on the Austrian forest-based sector. In order to reflect the political targets regarding the use of renewable energy a “wood-for-energy” scenario was developed and compared with a “business-as-usual” base-scenario up to the year 2020. The analysis shows that the rising fuelwood demand in the “wood-for-energy” scenario would clearly lead to a much stronger competition for small roundwood (pulpwood) and sawmill residues. Compared to the base scenario, this competition would increase pulpwood prices and — to some extent — forest product prices (especially sawmill residues and pulp). In general, forestry and sawmills would be the winners, the panel and paper industries would be the losers of a “wood-for-energy” policy. The panel and paper industries would face decreased gross profits, because of two developments happening at the same time: a decrease in production and an increase in costs (roundwood and sawmill residues) beyond the increase of forest products prices. The analysis also reveals that the additional demand for fuelwood could only be met by an additional supply from the Austrian forests — if the fuelwood price was attractive enough (by 2020 more than 50% higher than in the base-scenario) for the forest owners.

The Russian Federation is the world's largest net exporter of roundwood. To encourage shift in exports from roundwood to value-added industrial products, Russia has set large tariffs on its roundwood exports, and announced that even higher ones would be introduced in the future. Using a global forest sector model, the EFI-GTM, we analyse how the Russian and global forest product markets will evolve towards 2020 under alternative tariff levels and assumptions on investment climate in Russia. Our results show that the tariffs decrease harvest and roundwood prices in Russia, but improve the speed of development in the Russian sawnwood and pulp industry. The results also suggest that policies which improve the investment climate in Russia are more vital than the tariffs for the Russian forest industry to develop favourably. Among the tariff settings considered, the prevailing one of 15€ per cubic meter with non-coniferous pulpwood exempted, seems most beneficial for Russia. With a tax of 50€ per cubic meter, its forest industry would not develop much stronger than in the 15€ case, but forestry would suffer from a drastic harvest decrease caused by a nearly complete stop in the Russian roundwood exports, and negligible tax income would be generated. Outside Russia, the main importers of Russian roundwood would experience significant wood price increases and decreased forest industry production. The decline in the forest industry output would be largest in Asia, due to scarce supply there of raw material substitutes for wood imported from Russia, whereas the highest relative increase in roundwood prices would take place in the EU.

Manufacturing products with greater added value is increasingly viewed as a strategic goal of forest products industries. Added value is defined here as the difference in economic value between the physical inputs and outputs of a production process, and is generally analysed at the firm or national economy level. In this study we identify and discuss issues involved in quantifying added value at the industrial process level, and develop a bottom-up method to estimate the value added by forest industry processes. We calculate the value added by 14 traditional and emerging processes within the Swedish forest products industries, and express the results using various indices. We find that the type of biomass input strongly influences the potential for adding value, with sawlogs allowing more added value and being less sensitive to input price fluctuations than pulpwood and forest residues. Structural wood products such as lumber and glue-laminated beams are found to give the greatest value added. Co-production of multiple products from a single raw material increases total value added. Integrating the value chain of pulp and paper production significantly increases the value added to pulpwood. Multiple conversion processes exist for using forest residues as fuel, with a range of potential added value. Consideration of the climate benefits of forest product use, through the application of a carbon tax, significantly increases the added value.

As one of the world's fastest growing economies and important forest product markets, China has recently become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) with commitments to further opening its markets to the world. This study analyzes the effects of China's entry into the WTO on global forest product trade using a computable general equilibrium model. Two scenarios are analyzed: (1) unilateral trade liberalization by China resulting from its WTO accession and (2) combination of China's trade liberalization with the Uruguay Round (UR). Our results indicate that China's accession to the WTO would significantly increase its imports of forest products and reduce its domestic market prices of lumber and wood products as well as pulp, paper, and allied products. Most of Chinese new imports would be used as intermediate goods by industries to produce final products for domestic consumption and re-export. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Asian New Industrializing Economies would benefit most from the unilateral trade liberalization by China. The combination of China's WTO accession and the UR would strengthen the competitiveness of North America and the European Union in Chinese forest product markets. Although China's accession to the WTO would affect forest product trade flows between China and its trade partners, it would have relatively small impacts on the world price, production, and trade value of forest products.

With the start of economic reforms in 1978, China's forest sector was caught up in a whirlwind of change. It began with the devolution of forest tenures in rural areas, but led to reform of state-owned forest enterprises via introduction of stumpage fees and liberalized forest product prices. From the early 1990s to 1998, while China increasingly embraced the market economy, the nation's natural forests continued to be depleted despite repeated emphasis on sustainable development. Then, in the wake of the 1998 floods in the Yangtze River basin, there was a shift in focus from timber production to environmental protection, with policy redirected toward the rehabilitation of damaged forest ecosystems, afforestation in desertified and degraded areas, and a ban on logging in natural forests. We provide an overview of the central themes of reform in China's forestry sector, identify the major factors that influenced policy formulation, and show that the outcomes of China's forest policy changes in the aggregate represent a paradigm shift.

Decades of research have had virtually no impact on harvesting rates or harvesting practices for mahogany (Swietenia spp.), among the most valuable timber species of Latin America.Despite the existence of science-based regulations, mahogany is rapidly and often illegally harvested to the point where its density is so depleted that logging is no longer commercially viable.The lack of influence of science on forest management is not a result of scientific deficiency; rather, it is a political and economic failure to implement existing forest management policies. Until political will and regulatory capacity for enforcement exist or until buyers insist on meaningful verification that shipments were legally obtained, there is little incentive for reform and policies regulating the use of mahogany will not be implemented.Thus, under present conditions, there is little opportunity for science to influence the fate of mahogany.The case study of mahogany provides an excellent example not only of the difficulty for research to inform forest management, but also of demonstrating the key elements necessary for effective implementation of any forest policy. 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The global forest sector model EFI-GTM was applied to assess regional impacts in Europe of increased timber supply caused by potential acceleration of forest growth in Europe. The EFI-GTM is a multi-periodic partial equilibrium model, which contains 31 European regions and 30 regions for the rest of the world, and trade between the regions. The endogenous sectors include 26 forest industry products and six wood categories. Three alternative forest growth scenarios were analysed: a base line assuming the present annual rate of growth in the European countries, and two accelerating growth scenarios corresponding to a 20 and 40% increase after 20 years in the forest growth relative to the baseline growth. In the accelerated growth scenarios equilibrium prices for logs and sawnwood decreased significantly from the baseline levels, whereas the other forest product prices were not affected much. Depending on region and timber category, the log prices in 2020 were 7–9 and 13–17% lower than the base line prices in the medium and high forest growth scenarios, respectively. For sawnwood, the corresponding price decreases were 2 and 3.5–4.5%. In Western Europe, log harvest and sawnwood production increased because accelerated forest growth substituted for imports of these commodities from Russia and Eastern European countries. This decreased the harvests in Russia and Eastern Europe relative to the base case. In all the three forest growth scenarios the forest owners income as well as the forest industry profit increase over time.

In the international discussion on labels for sustainably produced wood products based on the certification of sustainable forest management (SFM), little attention has been paid to what is probably the most crucial part of any market-based instrument: the potential impact on forest products markets. This paper analyses the potential impact of SFM-certification on forest products markets using a simulation model of the Western European forest sector. Two scenarios with assumptions regarding certification (chain-of-custody costs, timber supply reduction from certified forests) are projected for the period 1995–2015 and tested against the results of a base scenario (‘business as usual’). In general, the results show that rather modest changes are to be expected from SFM-certification in forest products markets. The market impact of a timber supply reduction from certified forest would be more distinct than the impacts of chain-of-custody costs. Industry gross profits would decrease more than production. Due to the large share of roundwood costs in total costs, the sawmill industry would be affected more by even small changes in raw-material prices than the panel and paper industry.