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2. AFTER A STUMBLE, FASTER GROWTH FORTUNE's 18-month forecast: The pickup in trade, along with stronger spending by business, will keep the expansion chugging along. It is headed for the record books.
3. GULF WAR WILL DEEPEN THE U.S. RECESSION ONLY A BIT -- IF AT ALL.
4. GULF WAR WILL DEEPEN THE U.S. RECESSION ONLY A BIT -- IF AT ALL.
5. A YEAR TO SWING BOTH WAYS AS THE ECONOMY TRUDGES ALONG, HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND PROFITS WILL OFFER INVESTORS A CHOICE.
6. HIGHER PROFITS AHEAD -- AND DEBT THE U.S. CAN LIVE WITH.
7. INTEREST RATES WILL REBOUND IN THE NEXT YEAR AS THE FED TIGHTENS.
8. THE RECOVERY IN YOUR BACKYARD.
9. A REBOUND WITH ZING.
10. WHAT WILL LEAD TO RECOVERY Look first to business spending, not to consumers, whose behavior may be undergoing a sea change from the Eighties.
11. BARRING WAR, A MINOR RECESSION GNP will drop less than 1% peak to trough, making for a mild downturn at most. And it will end soon. By early spring, consumer spending and exports will spur growth.
12. Growth so slow it will make you nervous. Rising inflation and interest rates. A tightfisted Fed. Small income gains. But the economy next year will still break the record for . . . THE LONGEST EXPANSION EVER.
13. NO RECESSION, BUT A SCARY SLOWING.
14. NO RECESSION, BUT A SCARY SLOWING Growth will diminish gradually in the coming 18 months. Without help from higher productivity or other pleasant surprises, mid-1991 will be white-knuckle time.
15. NO RECESSION, BUT A SCARY SLOWING Growth will diminish gradually in the coming 18 months. Without help from higher productivity or other pleasant surprises, mid-1991 will be white-knuckle time.
16. NO RECESSION THIS YEAR OR NEXT Yes, Virginia, there is a soft landing. But even with slow growth, the Fed can't relax the inflation fight. Wages and benefits will be rising, so prices will be too.
17. A PERILOUS WALK ON THE MILD SIDE FORTUNE's economists see a year and a half of slow expansion ahead. But don't think for a moment that it will be dull. Inflation worries will nag the markets and the Fed.
18. RECESSION? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH Expansions do not just die of old age, and FORTUNE's economists see no sign before 1990 of the spending excesses that usually set the stage for a downturn.
19. LESS HELP FROM THE GRASS ROOTS State and local governments will rein in spending as their budget surpluses turn to deficits. But after a slow first quarter, exports will keep the economy rising.
20. SURPRISING HELP FROM THE CRASH Black Monday dampened an economy that was in danger of overheating. FORTUNE's 18-month forecast: a brief slowdown followed by sturdy growth.
21. WHERE DOES THE U.S. GO FROM HERE? It depends on what Washington does. Cutting the budget deficit, as Margaret Thatcher says, is "the most important single thing." Close behind: low interest rates and a floating dollar.
22. HIGHER PROFITS LIE AHEAD Investors can count on another year of slow but decent economic growth, though an uptick in inflation may rattle some nerves.
23. SURPRISE: FASTER GROWTH LIES AHEAD FORTUNE's 18-month forecast: Look past today's austere economic landscape. Business spending and the turn in trade will generate steady growth after the spring.
24. IS SLOW GROWTH SO TERRIBLE? Profits will be down, inflation up. But debt will grow more slowly, and interest rates won't rise. Moderation has its virtues.
25. HEADING FOR THE LONGEVITY RECORD FORTUNE's forecast for the next 18 months: Slow growth in this year's first half has set the pace for the lengthiest expansion in U.S. peacetime history. What will provide the energy? Not the government but ...
26. WHAT THE FORECAST MEANS FOR 16 INDUSTRIES The going will get tougher for many U.S. industries, among them cars and airlines. But computers will bounce back a bit, and apparel could make money for a change.
27. HOLD THE BUBBLY: GROWTH WILL SLOW.
28. THE RECOVERY WILL KEEP ITS COOL FORTUNE's forecast for the next 18 months: Growth will be slow, but consumer and government spending will help make the expansion one of the longest ever. Inflation and unemployment will rise just a bit, and interest ...
29. WHAT THE FORECAST * MEANS FOR 16 INDUSTRIES Slow growth notwithstanding, many U.S. industries -- among them autos, airlines, and appliances -- can look forward to strong sales. But for computers and electronics, it's a downer.
30. WHAT TAX REFORMS AND BUDGET CUTS WILL BRING At first the economy's growth will slow, raising the risk of a minor recession. But the outlook for the long run is a good deal brighter than it was early last month.
31. WHAT TAX REFORMS AND BUDGET CUTS WILL BRING At first the economy's growth will slow, raising the risk of a minor recession. But the outlook for the long run is a good deal brighter than it was early last month.
32. FORECAST: SLOW, STEADY RECOVERY After waiting for three years, corporate America and its investors will finally see a gain in earnings. The tradeoff: higher inflation and interest rates.
33. PROFITS: WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR.
34. CAPITAL SPENDING WILL HEAD UP.
35. WHY STATE BUDGETS ARE A MESS.
36. THE BATTLE AGAINST INFLATION TAKES ITS TOLL ON WORLD GROWTH.
37. SIGNS SUGGEST THE WORST IS OVER -- BARRING A LONG WAR.
38. SIGNS SUGGEST THE WORST IS OVER -- BARRING A LONG WAR.
39. EXPORTS WILL KEEP GROWTH GOING.
40. TWO CHEERS FOR CAPITAL GOODS IN AN OIL-SHOCKED ECONOMY.
41. OIL PRICES WON'T BRING A RECESSION Yes, the economy is fragile, but pessimistic forecasters have learned the wrong lessons from the past. The jump this time doesn't compare with the earlier ones.
42. THIS SHAKY OLD EXPANSION IS STEADIER THAN IT LOOKS.
43. BUSINESS SPENDING WILL KEEP CONTRIBUTING TO GROWTH.
44. A WEAKER DOLLAR WILL HELP KEEP THE TRADE DEFICIT SHRINKING.
45. IN THE BUDGET BATTLE, THERE'S NOT MUCH ROOM TO MANEUVER.
46. THE URGE FOR NEW EQUIPMENT WILL KEEP BUSINESS INVESTMENT GROWING.
47. INCREDIBLE BUT TRUE: THE BUDGET DEFICIT WILL SHRINK.
48. ROBUST GROWTH ABROAD WILL HELP KEEP THE U.S. ECONOMY ON TRACK.
49. 1990 WILL BRING BETTER RETURNS Interest rates will rise, and profits will recover from a bad year. But judging the quality of those profits will be harder than it used to be.
50. HIGHER LABOR COSTS WILL KEEP INFLATION SIMMERING.
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