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The aim of this pilot study was to develop logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM) models that differentiate low from high risk for prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) in a South African cohort of 383 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgical resection with curative intent. Additionally, the impact of 10-fold cross-validation (CV), Monte Carlo CV, and bootstrap internal validation methods on the performance of the two models was evaluated. The median LOS was 9 days, and prolonged LOS was defined as greater than 9 days post-operation. Preoperative factors associated with prolonged LOS were a prior history of hypertension and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score between 2 and 4. Postoperative factors related to prolonged LOS were the need for a stoma as part of the surgical procedure and the development of post-surgical complications. The risk of prolonged LOS was higher in male patients and in any patient with lower preoperative hemoglobin. The highest area under the receiving operating characteristics (AU-ROC) was achieved using LR of 0.823 (CI = 0.798–0.849) and SVM of 0.821 (CI = 0.776–0.825), with each model using the Monte Carlo CV method for internal validation. However, bootstrapping resulted in models with slightly lower variability. We found no significant difference between the models across the three internal validation methods. The LR and SVM algorithms used in this study required incorporating important features for optimal hospital LOS predictions. The factors identified in this study, especially postoperative complications, can be employed as a simple and quick test clinicians may flag a patient at risk of prolonged LOS.

Using targeted exome sequencing, we studied correlations between mutations at diagnosis and transplant outcomes in 332 subjects with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) receiving allotransplantation. A total of 299 patients (299/332, 90.1%) had at least one oncogenic point mutation. In multivariable analyses, pretransplant disease status, minimal residual disease (MRD) before transplantation (pre-MRD), cytogenetic risk classification, and TP53 and FLT3-ITDhigh ratio mutations were independent risk factors for AML recurrence after allotransplantation (p < 0.05). A nomogram for the cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) that integrated all the predictors in the multivariable model was then constructed, and the concordance index (C-index) values at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months for CIR prediction were 0.754, 0.730, 0.715, and 0.690, respectively. Moreover, calibration plots showed good agreements between the actual observation and the nomogram prediction for the 6, 12, 18, and 24 months posttransplantation CIR in the internal validation. The integrated calibration index (ICI) values were 0.008, 0.055, 0.094, and 0.136 at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months posttransplantation, respectively. With a median cutoff score of 9.73 from the nomogram, all patients could be divided into two groups, and the differences in 2-year CIR, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) between these two groups were significant (p < 0.05). Taken together, the results of our study indicate that gene mutations could help to predict the outcomes of patients with AML receiving allotransplantation.

BackgroundLymph node metastasis (LNM) has a significant impact on the prognosis of patients with early gastric cancer (EGC). Our aim was to identify the independent risk factors for LNM and construct nomograms for male and female EGC patients, respectively.MethodsClinicopathological data of 1,742 EGC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy and lymphadenectomy in the First Affiliated Hospital, Second Affiliated Hospital, and Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between November 2011 and April 2021 were collected and analyzed retrospectively. Male and female patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University were assigned to training sets and then from the Second and Fourth Affiliated Hospitals of Anhui Medical University were enrolled in validation sets. Based on independent risk factors for LNM in male and female EGC patients from the training sets, the nomograms were established respectively, which was also verified by internal validation from the training sets and external validation from the validation sets.ResultsTumor size (odd ratio (OR): 1.386, p = 0.030), depth of invasion (OR: 0.306, p = 0.001), Lauren type (OR: 2.816, p = 0.000), lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (OR: 0.160, p = 0.000), and menopause (OR: 0.296, p = 0.009) were independent risk factors for female EGC patients. For male EGC patients, tumor size (OR: 1.298, p = 0.007), depth of invasion (OR: 0.257, p = 0.000), tumor location (OR: 0.659, p = 0.002), WHO type (OR: 1.419, p = 0.001), Lauren type (OR: 3.099, p = 0.000), and LVI (OR: 0.131, p = 0.000) were independent risk factors. Moreover, nomograms were established to predict the risk of LNM for female and male EGC patients, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of nomograms for female and male training sets were 87.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8397–0.914) and 94.8% (95% CI: 0.9273–0.9695), respectively. For the validation set, they were 92.4% (95% CI: 0.7979–1) and 93.4% (95% CI: 0.8928–0.9755), respectively. Additionally, the calibration curves showed good agreements between the bias-corrected prediction and the ideal reference line for both training sets and validation sets in female and male EGC patients.ConclusionsNomograms based on risk factors for LNM in male and female EGC patients may provide new insights into the selection of appropriate treatment methods.

BackgroundTo establish a machine-learning-derived nomogram based on radiomic features and clinical factors to predict post-surgical 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with lung adenocarcinoma.MethodsPatients with >2 years post-surgical prognosis results of lung adenocarcinoma were included in Hospital-1 for model training (n = 100) and internal validation (n = 50), and in Hospital-2 for external testing (n = 50). A total of 1,672 radiomic features were extracted from 3D segmented CT images. The Rad-score was established using random survival forest by accumulating and weighting the top-20 imaging features contributive to PFS. A nomogram for predicting PFS was established, which comprised the Rad-score and clinical factors highly relevant to PFS.ResultsIn the training, internal validation, and external test groups, 69/100 (69%), 37/50 (74%) and 36/50 (72%) patients were progression-free at two years, respectively. According to the Rad-score, the integral of area under the curve (iAUC) for discriminating high and low risk of progression was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.77-1.0), 0.70 (0.41-0.98) and 0.90 (0.65-1.0), respectively. The C-index of Rad-score was 0.781 and 0.860 in the training and external test groups, higher than 0.707 and 0.606 for TNM stage, respectively. The nomogram integrating Rad-score and clinical factors (lung nodule type, cM stage and histological type) achieved a C-index of 0.845 and 0.837 to predict 2-year PFS, respectively, significantly higher than by only radiomic features (all p < 0.01).ConclusionThe nomogram comprising CT-derived radiomic features and risk factors showed a high performance in predicting post-surgical 2-year PFS of patients with lung adenocarcinoma, which may help personalize the treatment decisions.

BackgroundTumor mutational burden (TMB) could be a measure of response to immune checkpoint inhibitors therapy for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). MicroRNAs (miRNAs) participate in anticancer immune responses. In the present study, we determined miRNA expression patterns in patients with CRC and built a signature that predicts TMB.MethodsNext generation sequencing (NGS) on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples from CRC patients was performed to measure TMB levels. We used datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas to compare miRNA expression patterns in samples with high and low TMB from patients with CRC. We created an miRNA-based signature index using the selection operator (LASSO) and least absolute shrinkage method from the training set. We used an independent test set as internal validation. We used real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to validate the miRNA-based signature classifier.ResultsTwenty-seven samples from CRC patients underwent NGS to determine the TMB level. We identified four miRNA candidates in the training set for predicting TMB (N = 311). We used the test set (N = 204) for internal validation. The four-miRNA-based signature classifier was an accurate predictor of TMB, with accuracy 0.963 in the training set. In the test set, it was 0.902; and it was 0.946 in the total set. The classifier was superior to microsatellite instability (MSI) for predicting TMB in TCGA dataset. In the validation cohort, MSI status more positively correlated with TMB levels than did the classifier. Validation from RT-qPCR showed good target discrimination of the classifier for TMB prediction.ConclusionTo our knowledge, this is the first miRNA-based signature classifier validated using high quality clinical data to accurately predict TMB level in patients with CRC.

Surgical resection remains primary curative treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) while over 50% of patients experience recurrence, which calls for individualized recurrence prediction and early surveillance. This study aimed to develop a machine learning prognostic model to identify high-risk patients after surgical resection and to review importance of variables in different time intervals. The patients in this study were from two centers including Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital (EHSH) and Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital (MHH). The best-performed model was determined, validated, and applied to each time interval (0–1 year, 1–2 years, 2–3 years, and 3–5 years). Importance scores were used to illustrate feature importance in different time intervals. In addition, a risk heat map was constructed which visually depicted the risk of recurrence in different years. A total of 7,919 patients from two centers were included, of which 3,359 and 230 patients experienced recurrence, metastasis or died during the follow-up time in the EHSH and MHH datasets, respectively. The XGBoost model achieved the best discrimination with a c-index of 0.713 in internal validation cohort. Kaplan-Meier curves succeed to stratify external validation cohort into different risk groups (p < 0.05 in all comparisons). Tumor characteristics contribute more to HCC relapse in 0 to 1 year while HBV infection and smoking affect patients’ outcome largely in 3 to 5 years. Based on machine learning prediction model, the peak of recurrence can be predicted for individual HCC patients. Therefore, clinicians can apply it to personalize the management of postoperative survival.

BackgroundMicrovascular invasion (MVI) is highly associated with poor prognosis in patients with liver cancer. Predicting MVI before surgery is helpful for surgeons to better make surgical plan. In this study, we aim at establishing a nomogram to preoperatively predict the occurrence of microvascular invasion in liver cancer.MethodA total of 405 patients with postoperative pathological reports who underwent curative hepatocellular carcinoma resection in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from 2013 to 2015 were collected in this study. Among these patients, 290 were randomly assigned to the development group while others were assigned to the validation group. The MVI predictive factors were selected by Lasso regression analysis. Nomogram was established to preoperatively predict the MVI risk in HCC based on these predictive factors. The discrimination, calibration, and effectiveness of nomogram were evaluated by internal validation.ResultsLasso regression analysis revealed that discomfort of right upper abdomen, vascular invasion, lymph node metastases, unclear tumor boundary, tumor necrosis, tumor size, higher alkaline phosphatase were predictive MVI factors in HCC. The nomogram was established with the value of AUROC 0.757 (0.716–0.809) and 0.768 (0.703–0.814) in the development and the validation groups. Well-fitted calibration was in both development and validation groups. Decision curve analysis confirmed that the predictive model provided more benefit than treat all or none patients. The predictive model demonstrated sensitivity of 58.7%, specificity of 80.7% at the cut-off value of 0.312.ConclusionNomogram was established for predicting preoperative risk of MVI in HCC. Better treatment plans can be formulated according to the predicted results.

Purpose: Developing an MRI-based radiomics model to effectively and accurately predict the predominant histopathologic growth patterns (HGPs) of colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). Materials and Methods: In this study, 182 resected and histopathological proven CRLMs of chemotherapy-naive patients from two institutions, including 123 replacement CRLMs and 59 desmoplastic CRLMs, were retrospectively analyzed. Radiomics analysis was performed on two regions of interest (ROI), the tumor zone and the tumor-liver interface (TLI) zone. Decision tree (DT) algorithm was used for radiomics modeling on each MR sequence, and fused radiomics model was constructed by combining the radiomics signature of each sequence. The clinical and combination models were developed through multivariate logistic regression method. The performance of the developed models was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with indicators of area under curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A nomogram was constructed to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and usefulness. Results: The fused radiomicstumor and radiomicsTLI models showed better performance than any single sequence and clinical model. In addition, the radiomicsTLI model exhibited better performance than radiomicstumor model (AUC of 0.912 vs. 0.879) in internal validation cohort. The combination model showed good discrimination, and the AUC of nomogram was 0.971, 0.909, and 0.905 in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusion: MRI-based radiomics method has high potential in predicting the predominant HGPs of CRLM. Preoperative non-invasive identification of predominant HGPs could further explore the ability of HGPs as a potential biomarker for clinical treatment strategy, reflecting different biological pathways.