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BackgroundAbout 15% of lung cancers in men and 53% in women are not attributable to smoking worldwide. The aim was to develop and validate a simple and non-invasive model which could assess and stratify lung cancer risk in non-smokers in China.MethodsA large-sample size, population-based study was conducted under the framework of the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC). Data on the lung cancer screening in Henan province, China, from October 2013 to October 2019 were used and randomly divided into the training and validation sets. Related risk factors were identified through multivariable Cox regression analysis, followed by establishment of risk prediction nomogram. Discrimination [area under the curve (AUC)] and calibration were further performed to assess the validation of risk prediction nomogram in the training set, and then validated by the validation set.ResultsA total of 214,764 eligible subjects were included, with a mean age of 55.19 years. Subjects were randomly divided into the training (107,382) and validation (107,382) sets. Elder age, being male, a low education level, family history of lung cancer, history of tuberculosis, and without a history of hyperlipidemia were the independent risk factors for lung cancer. Using these six variables, we plotted 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk prediction nomogram. The AUC was 0.753, 0.752, and 0.755 for the 1-, 3- and 5-year lung cancer risk in the training set, respectively. In the validation set, the model showed a moderate predictive discrimination, with the AUC was 0.668, 0.678, and 0.685 for the 1-, 3- and 5-year lung cancer risk.ConclusionsWe developed and validated a simple and non-invasive lung cancer risk model in non-smokers. This model can be applied to identify and triage patients at high risk for developing lung cancers in non-smokers.

This study aims to evaluate the clinical performance of the HPV E6/E7 mRNA test in cervical cancer screening in China. A hospital-based study was conducted with mRNA, DNA, and liquid-based cytology (LBC) as primary screening tests. Each woman with a positive result received colposcopy with lesion-targeted-biopsy. Histopathological diagnosis was used as the gold standard. The total agreement of HPV DNA and mRNA was 90.7% (95%CI: 87.9, 92.9) with a kappa value of 0.81. The positive rates of HPV DNA, mRNA, and LBC increased with the severity of histopathology diagnosis, from 25.5, 19.1, and 11.4% in normal to 100.0% in SCC, respectively. The sensitivities for mRNA to detect CIN2+ and CIN3+ were 93.8% (95%CI: 89.7–96.4) and 95.7% (95%CI: 91.3–97.9), respectively, which were not different from HPV DNA testing (95.7% [95%CI: 92.0–97.7], 96.3% [95%CI: 92.1–98.3]), but higher than LBC (80.4% [95%CI: 74.5–85.2] and 88.8% [95%CI: 83.0–92.8]). The specificities for mRNA to detect CIN2+ (79.0% [95%CI: 74.2–83.0]) and CIN3+ (70.5% [95%CI: 65.7–74.9]) were higher than HPV DNA testing (71.0% [95%CI: 65.9–75.7], 62.8% [95%CI: 57.8–67.5]), but lower than LBC (84.5% [95%CI: 80.1–88.0] 79.8% [95%CI: 75.4–83.6]). All tests were more effective in women older than 30 years. HPV mRNA test showed excellent agreement with the DNA test, with similar sensitivity and a higher specificity in detecting high-grade cervical lesions. It is promising that mRNA test could be used for the national cervical cancer screening to reduce false positive without losing sensitivity.