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The prediction of the susceptibility of an individual to a certain disease is an important and timely research area. An established technique is to estimate the risk of an individual with the help of an integrated risk model, that is, a polygenic risk score with added epidemiological covariates. However, integrated risk models do not capture any time dependence, and may provide a point estimate of the relative risk with respect to a reference population. The aim of this work is twofold. First, we explore and advocate the idea of predicting the time-dependent hazard and survival (defined as disease-free time) of an individual for the onset of a disease. This provides a practitioner with a much more differentiated view of absolute survival as a function of time. Second, to compute the time-dependent risk of an individual, we use published methodology to fit a Cox's proportional hazard model to data from a genetic SNP study of time to Alzheimer's disease (AD) onset, using the lasso to incorporate further epidemiological variables such as sex, APOE (apolipoprotein E, a genetic risk factor for AD) status, 10 leading principal components, and selected genomic loci. We apply the lasso for Cox's proportional hazards to a data set of 6792 AD patients (composed of 4102 cases and 2690 controls) and 87 covariates. We demonstrate that fitting a lasso model for Cox's proportional hazards allows one to obtain more accurate survival curves than with state-of-the-art (likelihood-based) methods. Moreover, the methodology allows one to obtain personalized survival curves for a patient, thus giving a much more differentiated view of the expected progression of a disease than the view offered by integrated risk models. The runtime to compute personalized survival curves is under a minute for the entire data set of AD patients, thus enabling it to handle datasets with 60,000-100,000 subjects in less than 1 h., (© 2024 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

SARS-CoV-2 mortality has been extensively studied in relation to host susceptibility. How sequence variations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome affect pathogenicity is poorly understood. Starting in October 2020, using the methodology of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we looked at the association between whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data of the virus and COVID-19 mortality as a potential method of early identification of highly pathogenic strains to target for containment. Although continuously updating our analysis, in December 2020, we analyzed 7548 single-stranded SARS-CoV-2 genomes of COVID-19 patients in the GISAID database and associated variants with mortality using a logistic regression. In total, evaluating 29,891 sequenced loci of the viral genome for association with patient/host mortality, two loci, at 12,053 and 25,088 bp, achieved genome-wide significance (p values of 4.09e-09 and 4.41e-23, respectively), though only 25,088 bp remained significant in follow-up analyses. Our association findings were exclusively driven by the samples that were submitted from Brazil (p value of 4.90e-13 for 25,088 bp). The mutation frequency of 25,088 bp in the Brazilian samples on GISAID has rapidly increased from about 0.4 in October/December 2020 to 0.77 in March 2021. Although GWAS methodology is suitable for samples in which mutation frequencies varies between geographical regions, it cannot account for mutation frequencies that change rapidly overtime, rendering a GWAS follow-up analysis of the GISAID samples that have been submitted after December 2020 as invalid. The locus at 25,088 bp is located in the P.1 strain, which later (April 2021) became one of the distinguishing loci (precisely, substitution V1176F) of the Brazilian strain as defined by the Centers for Disease Control. Specifically, the mutations at 25,088 bp occur in the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which plays a key role in viral entry of target host cells. Since the mutations alter amino acid coding sequences, they potentially imposing structural changes that could enhance viral infectivity and symptom severity. Our analysis suggests that GWAS methodology can provide suitable analysis tools for the real-time detection of new more transmissible and pathogenic viral strains in databases such as GISAID, though new approaches are needed to accommodate rapidly changing mutation frequencies over time, in the presence of simultaneously changing case/control ratios. Improvements of the associated metadata/patient information in terms of quality and availability will also be important to fully utilize the potential of GWAS methodology in this field., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Recently, Mendelian Randomization (MR) has gained in popularity as a concept to assess the causal relationship between phenotypes in genetic association studies. An extension of standard MR methodology, the MR Steiger approach, has recently been developed to infer the causal direction between two phenotypes in prospective studies. Through simulation studies, we examined and quantified the ability of the MR Steiger approach to determine the causal direction between two phenotypes (i.e., effect direction). Through simulation studies, our results show that the MR Steiger approach may fail to correctly identify the direction of causality. This is true, especially in the presence of pleiotropy. We also applied the MR Steiger method to the COPDGene study, a case-control study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in current and former smokers, to examine the role of smoking on lung function. We have created an R package on Github called reverseDirection which runs simulations for user-specified scenarios to examine when the MR Steiger approach can correctly determine the causal direction between two phenotypes in any user specified scenario. In summary, our results emphasize the importance of caution when the MR Steiger approach is used in to infer the direction of causality., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

locStra is an R -package for the analysis of regional and global population stratification in whole-genome sequencing (WGS) studies, where regional stratification refers to the substructure defined by the loci in a particular region on the genome. Population substructure can be assessed based on the genetic covariance matrix, the genomic relationship matrix, and the unweighted/weighted genetic Jaccard similarity matrix. Using a sliding window approach, the regional similarity matrices are compared with the global ones, based on user-defined window sizes and metrics, for example, the correlation between regional and global eigenvectors. An algorithm for the specification of the window size is provided. As the implementation fully exploits sparse matrix algebra and is written in C++, the analysis is highly efficient. Even on single cores, for realistic study sizes (several thousand subjects, several million rare variants per subject), the runtime for the genome-wide computation of all regional similarity matrices does typically not exceed one hour, enabling an unprecedented investigation of regional stratification across the entire genome. The package is applied to three WGS studies, illustrating the varying patterns of regional substructure across the genome and its beneficial effects on association testing., (© 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Proportions of false-positive rates in genome-wide association analysis are affected by population stratification, and if it is not correctly adjusted, the statistical analysis can produce the large false-negative finding. Therefore various approaches have been proposed to adjust such problems in genome-wide association studies. However, in spite of its importance, a few studies have been conducted in genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-by-environment interaction studies. In this report, we illustrate in which scenarios can lead to the false-positive rates in association mapping and approach to maintaining the overall type-1 error rate., (© 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Genetic association studies have increasingly recognized variant effects on multiple phenotypes. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disease with environmental and genetic causes. Multiple genetic variants have been associated with COPD, many of which show significant associations to additional phenotypes. However, it is unknown if these associations represent biological pleiotropy or if they exist through correlation of related phenotypes ("mediated pleiotropy"). Using 6,670 subjects from the COPDGene study, we describe the association of known COPD susceptibility loci with other COPD-related phenotypes and distinguish if these act directly on the phenotypes (i.e., biological pleiotropy) or if the association is due to correlation (i.e., mediated pleiotropy). We identified additional associated phenotypes for 13 of 25 known COPD loci. Tests for pleiotropy between genotype and associated outcomes were significant for all loci. In cases of significant pleiotropy, we performed mediation analysis to test if SNPs had a direct association to phenotype. Most loci showed a mediated effect through the hypothesized causal pathway. However, many loci also had direct associations, suggesting causal explanations (i.e., emphysema leading to reduced lung function) are incomplete. Our results highlight the high degree of pleiotropy in complex disease-associated loci and provide novel insights into the mechanisms underlying COPD., (© 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Whole-exome sequencing using family data has identified rare coding variants in Mendelian diseases or complex diseases with Mendelian subtypes, using filters based on variant novelty, functionality, and segregation with the phenotype within families. However, formal statistical approaches are limited. We propose a gene-based segregation test (GESE) that quantifies the uncertainty of the filtering approach. It is constructed using the probability of segregation events under the null hypothesis of Mendelian transmission. This test takes into account different degrees of relatedness in families, the number of functional rare variants in the gene, and their minor allele frequencies in the corresponding population. In addition, a weighted version of this test allows incorporating additional subject phenotypes to improve statistical power. We show via simulations that the GESE and weighted GESE tests maintain appropriate type I error rate, and have greater power than several commonly used region-based methods. We apply our method to whole-exome sequencing data from 49 extended pedigrees with severe, early-onset chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the Boston Early-Onset COPD study (BEOCOPD) and identify several promising candidate genes. Our proposed methods show great potential for identifying rare coding variants of large effect and high penetrance for family-based sequencing data. The proposed tests are implemented in an R package that is available on CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/GESE/)., (© 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.)

Through genome-wide association studies, numerous genes have been shown to be associated with multiple phenotypes. To determine the overlap of genetic susceptibility of correlated phenotypes, one can apply multivariate regression or dimension reduction techniques, such as principal components analysis, and test for the association with the principal components of the phenotypes rather than the individual phenotypes. However, as these approaches test whether there is a genetic effect for at least one of the phenotypes, a significant test result does not necessarily imply pleiotropy. Recently, a method called Pleiotropy Estimation and Test Bootstrap (PET-B) has been proposed to specifically test for pleiotropy (i.e., that two normally distributed phenotypes are both associated with the single nucleotide polymorphism of interest). Although the method examines the genetic overlap between the two quantitative phenotypes, the extension to binary phenotypes, three or more phenotypes, and rare variants is not straightforward. We provide two approaches to formally test this pleiotropic relationship in multiple scenarios. These approaches depend on permuting the phenotypes of interest and comparing the set of observed P-values to the set of permuted P-values in relation to the origin (e.g., a vector of zeros) either using the Hausdorff metric or a cutoff-based approach. These approaches are appropriate for categorical and quantitative phenotypes, more than two phenotypes, common variants and rare variants. We evaluate these approaches under various simulation scenarios and apply them to the COPDGene study, a case-control study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in current and former smokers., (© 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.)