Search

Genetic sequences collected over time provide an exciting opportunity to study natural selection. In such studies, it is important to account for linkage disequilibrium to accurately measure selection and to distinguish between selection and other effects that can cause changes in allele frequencies, such as genetic hitchhiking or clonal interference. However, most high-throughput sequencing methods cannot directly measure linkage due to short-read lengths. Here we develop a simple method to estimate linkage disequilibrium from time-series allele frequencies. This reconstructed linkage information can then be combined with other inference methods to infer the fitness effects of individual mutations. Simulations show that our approach reliably outperforms inference that ignores linkage disequilibrium and, with sufficient sampling, performs similarly to inference using the true linkage information. We also introduce two regularization methods derived from random matrix theory that help to preserve its performance under limited sampling effects. Overall, our method enables the use of linkage-aware inference methods even for data sets where only allele frequency time series are available.

Admixture has the potential to facilitate adaptation by providing alleles that are immediately adaptive in a new environment or by simply increasing the long-term reservoir of genetic diversity for future adaptation. A growing number of cases of adaptive introgression are being identified in species across the tree of life, however the timing of selection, and therefore the importance of the different evolutionary roles of admixture, is typically unknown. Here, we investigate the spatio-temporal history of selection favoring Neanderthal-introgressed alleles in modern human populations. Using both ancient and present-day samples of modern humans, we integrate the known demographic history of populations, namely population divergence and migration, with tests for selection. We model how a sweep placed along different branches of an admixture graph acts to modify the variance and covariance in neutral allele frequencies among populations at linked loci. Using a method based on this model of allele frequencies, we study previously identified cases of adaptive Neanderthal introgression. From these, we identify cases in which Neanderthal-introgressed alleles were quickly beneficial and other cases in which they persisted at low frequency for some time. For some of the alleles that persisted at low frequency, we show that selection likely independently favored them later on in geographically separated populations. Our work highlights how admixture with ancient hominins has contributed to modern human adaptation and contextualizes observed levels of Neanderthal ancestry in present-day and ancient samples.

Traditional Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) tests (the χ2 test and the exact test) have long been used as a metric for evaluating genotype quality, as technical artifacts leading to incorrect genotype calls often can be identified as deviations from HWE. However, in data sets composed of individuals from diverse ancestries, HWE can be violated even without genotyping error, complicating the use of HWE testing to assess genotype data quality. In this manuscript, we present the Robust Unified Test for HWE (RUTH) to test for HWE while accounting for population structure and genotype uncertainty, and to evaluate the impact of population heterogeneity and genotype uncertainty on the standard HWE tests and alternative methods using simulated and real sequence data sets. Our results demonstrate that ignoring population structure or genotype uncertainty in HWE tests can inflate false-positive rates by many orders of magnitude. Our evaluations demonstrate different tradeoffs between false positives and statistical power across the methods, with RUTH consistently among the best across all evaluations. RUTH is implemented as a practical and scalable software tool to rapidly perform HWE tests across millions of markers and hundreds of thousands of individuals while supporting standard VCF/BCF formats. RUTH is publicly available at https://www.github.com/statgen/ruth.

One of the most useful models in population genetics is that of a selective sweep and the consequent hitch-hiking of linked neutral alleles. While variations on this model typically assume constant population size, many instances of strong selection and rapid adaptation in nature may co-occur with complex demography. Here, we extend the hitch-hiking model to evolutionary rescue, where adaptation and demography not only co-occur but are intimately entwined. Our results show how this feedback between demography and evolution determines-and restricts-the genetic signatures of evolutionary rescue, and how these differ from the signatures of sweeps in populations of constant size. In particular, we find rescue to harden sweeps from standing variance or new mutation (but not from migration), reduce genetic diversity both at the selected site and genome-wide, and increase the range of observed Tajima's D values. For a given initial rate of population decline, the feedback between demography and evolution makes all of these differences more dramatic under weaker selection, where bottlenecks are prolonged. Nevertheless, it is likely difficult to infer the co-incident timing of the sweep and bottleneck from these simple signatures, never mind a feedback between them. Temporal samples spanning contemporary rescue events may offer one way forward.

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) is a major food cereal for millions of people worldwide. The sorghum genome, like other species, accumulates deleterious mutations, likely impacting its fitness. The lack of recombination, drift, and the coupling with favorable loci impede the removal of deleterious mutations from the genome by selection. To study how deleterious variants impact phenotypes, we identified putative deleterious mutations among ∼5.5 M segregating variants of 229 diverse biomass sorghum lines. We provide the whole-genome estimate of the deleterious burden in sorghum, showing that ∼33% of nonsynonymous substitutions are putatively deleterious. The pattern of mutation burden varies appreciably among racial groups. Across racial groups, the mutation burden correlated negatively with biomass, plant height, specific leaf area (SLA), and tissue starch content (TSC), suggesting that deleterious burden decreases trait fitness. Putatively deleterious variants explain roughly one-half of the genetic variance. However, there is only moderate improvement in total heritable variance explained for biomass (7.6%) and plant height (average of 3.1% across all stages). There is no advantage in total heritable variance for SLA and TSC. The contribution of putatively deleterious variants to phenotypic diversity therefore appears to be dependent on the genetic architecture of traits. Overall, these results suggest that incorporating putatively deleterious variants into genomic models slightly improves prediction accuracy because of extensive linkage. Knowledge of deleterious variants could be leveraged for sorghum breeding through either genome editing and/or conventional breeding that focuses on the selection of progeny with fewer deleterious alleles.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed that many traits are highly polygenic, in that their within-population variance is governed, in part, by small-effect variants at many genetic loci. Standard population-genetic methods for inferring evolutionary history are ill-suited for polygenic traits: when there are many variants of small effect, signatures of natural selection are spread across the genome and are subtle at any one locus. In the last several years, various methods have emerged for detecting the action of natural selection on polygenic scores, sums of genotypes weighted by GWAS effect sizes. However, most existing methods do not reveal the timing or strength of selection. Here, we present a set of methods for estimating the historical time course of a population-mean polygenic score using local coalescent trees at GWAS loci. These time courses are estimated by using coalescent theory to relate the branch lengths of trees to allele-frequency change. The resulting time course can be tested for evidence of natural selection. We present theory and simulations supporting our procedures, as well as estimated time courses of polygenic scores for human height. Because of its grounding in coalescent theory, the framework presented here can be extended to a variety of demographic scenarios, and its usefulness will increase as both GWAS and ancestral-recombination-graph inference continue to progress.

Evolutionary dynamics driven out of equilibrium by growth, expansion, or adaptation often generate a characteristically skewed distribution of descendant numbers: the earliest, the most advanced, or the fittest ancestors have exceptionally large number of descendants, which Luria and Delbrück called "jackpot" events. Here, I show that recurrent jackpot events generate a deterministic median bias favoring majority alleles, which is akin to positive frequency-dependent selection (proportional to the log ratio of the frequencies of mutant and wild-type alleles). This fictitious selection force results from the fact that majority alleles tend to sample deeper into the tail of the descendant distribution. The flip side of this sampling effect is the rare occurrence of large frequency hikes in favor of minority alleles, which ensures that the allele frequency dynamics remains neutral in expectation, unless genuine selection is present. The resulting picture of a selection-like bias compensated by rare big jumps allows for an intuitive understanding of allele frequency trajectories and enables the exact calculation of transition densities for a range of important scenarios, including population-size variations and different forms of natural selection. As a general signature of evolution by rare events, fictitious selection hampers the establishment of new beneficial mutations, counteracts balancing selection, and confounds methods to infer selection from data over limited timescales.

The sample frequency spectrum (SFS), which describes the distribution of mutant alleles in a sample of DNA sequences, is a widely used summary statistic in population genetics. The expected SFS has a strong dependence on the historical population demography and this property is exploited by popular statistical methods to infer complex demographic histories from DNA sequence data. Most, if not all, of these inference methods exhibit pathological behavior, however. Specifically, they often display runaway behavior in optimization, where the inferred population sizes and epoch durations can degenerate to zero or diverge to infinity, and show undesirable sensitivity to perturbations in the data. The goal of this article is to provide theoretical insights into why such problems arise. To this end, we characterize the geometry of the expected SFS for piecewise-constant demographies and use our results to show that the aforementioned pathological behavior of popular inference methods is intrinsic to the geometry of the expected SFS. We provide explicit descriptions and visualizations for a toy model, and generalize our intuition to arbitrary sample sizes using tools from convex and algebraic geometry. We also develop a universal characterization result which shows that the expected SFS of a sample of size n under an arbitrary population history can be recapitulated by a piecewise-constant demography with only [Formula: see text] epochs, where [Formula: see text] is between [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] The set of expected SFS for piecewise-constant demographies with fewer than [Formula: see text] epochs is open and nonconvex, which causes the above phenomena for inference from data.

In vitro studies suggest that stress may generate random standing variation and that different cellular and ploidy states may evolve more rapidly under stress. Yet this idea has not been tested with pathogenic fungi growing within their host niche in vivo Here, we analyzed the generation of both genotypic and phenotypic diversity during exposure of Candida albicans to the mouse oral cavity. Ploidy, aneuploidy, loss of heterozygosity (LOH), and recombination were determined using flow cytometry and double digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing. Colony phenotypic changes in size and filamentous growth were evident without selection and were enriched among colonies selected for LOH of the GAL1 marker. Aneuploidy and LOH occurred on all chromosomes (Chrs), with aneuploidy more frequent for smaller Chrs and whole Chr LOH more frequent for larger Chrs. Large genome shifts in ploidy to haploidy often maintained one or more heterozygous disomic Chrs, consistent with random Chr missegregation events. Most isolates displayed several different types of genomic changes, suggesting that the oral environment rapidly generates diversity de novo In sharp contrast, following in vitro propagation, isolates were not enriched for multiple LOH events, except in those that underwent haploidization and/or had high levels of Chr loss. The frequency of events was overall 100 times higher for C. albicans populations following in vivo passage compared with in vitro These hyper-diverse in vivo isolates likely provide C. albicans with the ability to adapt rapidly to the diversity of stress environments it encounters inside the host.

Selection experiments and experimental evolution provide unique opportunities to study the genetics of adaptation because the target and intensity of selection are known relatively precisely. In contrast to natural selection, where populations are never strictly "replicated," experimental evolution routinely includes replicate lines so that selection signatures-genomic regions showing excessive differentiation between treatments-can be separated from possible founder effects, genetic drift, and multiple adaptive solutions. We developed a mouse model with four lines within a high running (HR) selection treatment and four nonselected controls (C). At generation 61, we sampled 10 mice of each line and used the Mega Mouse Universal Genotyping Array to obtain single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data for 25,318 SNPs for each individual. Using an advanced mixed model procedure developed in this study, we identified 152 markers that were significantly different in frequency between the two selection treatments. They occurred on all chromosomes except 1, 2, 8, 13, and 19, and showed a variety of patterns in terms of fixation (or the lack thereof) in the four HR and four C lines. Importantly, none were fixed for alternative alleles between the two selection treatments. The current state-of-the-art regularized F test applied after pooling DNA samples for each line failed to detect any markers. We conclude that when SNP or sequence data are available from individuals, the mixed model methodology is recommended for selection signature detection. As sequencing at the individual level becomes increasingly feasible, the new methodology may be routinely applied for detection of selection.

Inversions have been proposed to facilitate local adaptation, by linking together locally coadapted alleles at different loci. Prior work addressing this question theoretically has considered the spread of inversions in "continent-island" scenarios in which there is a unidirectional flow of maladapted migrants into the island population. In this setting, inversions capturing locally adaptive haplotypes are most likely to invade when selection is weak, because stronger local selection (i) more effectively purges maladaptive alleles and (ii) generates linkage disequilibrium between adaptive alleles, thus lessening the advantage of inversions. We show this finding only holds under limited conditions by studying the establishment of inversions in a more general two-deme model, which explicitly considers the dynamics of allele frequencies in both populations linked by bidirectional migration. In this model, the level of symmetry between demes can be varied from complete asymmetry (continent-island) to complete symmetry. For symmetric selection and migration, strong selection increases the allele frequency divergence between demes thereby increasing the frequency of maladaptive alleles in migrants, favoring inversions-the opposite of the pattern seen in the asymmetric continent-island scenario. We also account for the likelihood that a new inversion captures an adaptive haplotype in the first instance. When considering the combined process of capture and invasion in "continent island" and symmetric scenarios, relatively strong selection increases inversion establishment probability. Migration must also be low enough that the inversion is likely to capture an adaptive allele combination, but not so low as to eliminate the inversion's advantage. Overall, our analysis suggests that inversions are likely to harbor larger effect alleles that experience relatively strong selection., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America.)

Sex-biased demography, including sex-biased survival or migration, can alter allele frequency changes across the genome. In particular, we can expect different patterns of genetic variation on autosomes and sex chromosomes due to sex-specific differences in life histories, as well as differences in effective population size, transmission modes, and the strength and mode of selection. Here, we demonstrate the role that sex differences in life history played in shaping short-term evolutionary dynamics across the genome. We used a 25-year pedigree and genomic dataset from a long-studied population of Florida Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) to directly characterize the relative roles of sex-biased demography and inheritance in shaping genome-wide allele frequency trajectories. We used gene dropping simulations to estimate individual genetic contributions to future generations and to model drift and immigration on the known pedigree. We quantified differential expected genetic contributions of males and females over time, showing the impact of sex-biased dispersal in a monogamous system. Due to female-biased dispersal, more autosomal variation is introduced by female immigrants. However, due to male-biased transmission, more Z variation is introduced by male immigrants. Finally, we partitioned the proportion of variance in allele frequency change through time due to male and female contributions. Overall, most allele frequency change is due to variance in survival and births. Males and females make similar contributions to autosomal allele frequency change, but males make higher contributions to allele frequency change on the Z chromosome. Our work shows the importance of understanding sex-specific demographic processes in characterizing genome-wide allele frequency change in wild populations., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Characterizing spatial patterns in allele frequencies is fundamental to evolutionary biology because these patterns contain evidence of underlying processes. However, the spatial scales at which gene flow, changing selection, and drift act are often unknown. Many of these processes can operate inconsistently across space, causing nonstationary patterns. We present a wavelet approach to characterize spatial pattern in allele frequency that helps solve these problems. We show how our approach can characterize spatial patterns in relatedness at multiple spatial scales, i.e. a multilocus wavelet genetic dissimilarity. We also develop wavelet tests of spatial differentiation in allele frequency and quantitative trait loci (QTL). With simulation, we illustrate these methods under different scenarios. We also apply our approach to natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana to characterize population structure and identify locally adapted loci across scales. We find, for example, that Arabidopsis flowering time QTL show significantly elevated genetic differentiation at 300-1,300 km scales. Wavelet transforms of allele frequencies offer a flexible way to reveal geographic patterns and underlying evolutionary processes., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The author(s) declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The advent of next generation sequencing technologies has made whole-genome and whole-population sampling possible, even for eukaryotes with large genomes. With this development, experimental evolution studies can be designed to observe molecular evolution in action via evolve-and-resequence (E&R) experiments. Among other applications, E&R studies can be used to locate the genes and variants responsible for genetic adaptation. Most existing literature on time-series data analysis often assumes large population size, accurate allele frequency estimates, or wide time spans. These assumptions do not hold in many E&R studies. In this article, we propose a method-composition of likelihoods for evolve-and-resequence experiments (Clear)-to identify signatures of selection in small population E&R experiments. Clear takes whole-genome sequences of pools of individuals as input, and properly addresses heterogeneous ascertainment bias resulting from uneven coverage. Clear also provides unbiased estimates of model parameters, including population size, selection strength, and dominance, while being computationally efficient. Extensive simulations show that Clear achieves higher power in detecting and localizing selection over a wide range of parameters, and is robust to variation of coverage. We applied the Clear statistic to multiple E&R experiments, including data from a study of adaptation of Drosophila melanogaster to alternating temperatures and a study of outcrossing yeast populations, and identified multiple regions under selection with genome-wide significance.

Statistical models in medical and population genetics typically assume that individuals assort randomly in a population. While this simplifies model complexity, it contradicts an increasing body of evidence of nonrandom mating in human populations. Specifically, it has been shown that assortative mating is significantly affected by genomic ancestry. In this work, we examine the effects of ancestry-assortative mating on the linkage disequilibrium between local ancestry tracks of individuals in an admixed population. To accomplish this, we develop an extension to the Wright-Fisher model that allows for ancestry-based assortative mating. We show that ancestry-assortment perturbs the distribution of local ancestry linkage disequilibrium (LAD) and the variance of ancestry in a population as a function of the number of generations since admixture. This assortment effect can induce errors in demographic inference of admixed populations when methods assume random mating. We derive closed form formulae for LAD under an assortative-mating model with and without migration. We observe that LAD depends on the correlation of global ancestry of couples in each generation, the migration rate of each of the ancestral populations, the initial proportions of ancestral populations, and the number of generations since admixture. We also present the first direct evidence of ancestry-assortment in African Americans and examine LAD in simulated and real admixed population data of African Americans. We find that demographic inference under the assumption of random mating significantly underestimates the number of generations since admixture, and that accounting for assortative mating using the patterns of LAD results in estimates that more closely agrees with the historical narrative.

The advent of accessible ancient DNA technology now allows the direct ascertainment of allele frequencies in ancestral populations, thereby enabling the use of allele frequency time series to detect and estimate natural selection. Such direct observations of allele frequency dynamics are expected to be more powerful than inferences made using patterns of linked neutral variation obtained from modern individuals. We developed a Bayesian method to make use of allele frequency time series data and infer the parameters of general diploid selection, along with allele age, in nonequilibrium populations. We introduce a novel path augmentation approach, in which we use Markov chain Monte Carlo to integrate over the space of allele frequency trajectories consistent with the observed data. Using simulations, we show that this approach has good power to estimate selection coefficients and allele age. Moreover, when applying our approach to data on horse coat color, we find that ignoring a relevant demographic history can significantly bias the results of inference. Our approach is made available in a C++ software package.

It is becoming routine to obtain data sets on DNA sequence variation across several thousands of chromosomes, providing unprecedented opportunity to infer the underlying biological and demographic forces. Such data make it vital to study summary statistics that offer enough compression to be tractable, while preserving a great deal of information. One well-studied summary is the site frequency spectrum-the empirical distribution, across segregating sites, of the sample frequency of the derived allele. However, most previous theoretical work has assumed that each site has experienced at most one mutation event in its genealogical history, which becomes less tenable for very large sample sizes. In this work we obtain, in closed form, the predicted frequency spectrum of a site that has experienced at most two mutation events, under very general assumptions about the distribution of branch lengths in the underlying coalescent tree. Among other applications, we obtain the frequency spectrum of a triallelic site in a model of historically varying population size. We demonstrate the utility of our formulas in two settings: First, we show that triallelic sites are more sensitive to the parameters of a population that has experienced historical growth, suggesting that they will have use if they can be incorporated into demographic inference. Second, we investigate a recently proposed alternative mechanism of mutation in which the two derived alleles of a triallelic site are created simultaneously within a single individual, and we develop a test to determine whether it is responsible for the excess of triallelic sites in the human genome.

Comparing allele frequencies among populations that differ in environment has long been a tool for detecting loci involved in local adaptation. However, such analyses are complicated by an imperfect knowledge of population allele frequencies and neutral correlations of allele frequencies among populations due to shared population history and gene flow. Here we develop a set of methods to robustly test for unusual allele frequency patterns and correlations between environmental variables and allele frequencies while accounting for these complications based on a Bayesian model previously implemented in the software Bayenv. Using this model, we calculate a set of standardized allele frequencies that allows investigators to apply tests of their choice to multiple populations while accounting for sampling and covariance due to population history. We illustrate this first by showing that these standardized frequencies can be used to detect nonparametric correlations with environmental variables; these correlations are also less prone to spurious results due to outlier populations. We then demonstrate how these standardized allele frequencies can be used to construct a test to detect SNPs that deviate strongly from neutral population structure. This test is conceptually related to FST and is shown to be more powerful, as we account for population history. We also extend the model to next-generation sequencing of population pools-a cost-efficient way to estimate population allele frequencies, but one that introduces an additional level of sampling noise. The utility of these methods is demonstrated in simulations and by reanalyzing human SNP data from the Human Genome Diversity Panel populations and pooled next-generation sequencing data from Atlantic herring. An implementation of our method is available from http://gcbias.org.

Genetic adaptation to external stimuli occurs through the combined action of mutation and selection. A central problem in genetics is to identify loci responsive to specific selective constraints. Many tests have been proposed to identify the genomic signatures of natural selection by quantifying the skew in the site frequency spectrum (SFS) under selection relative to neutrality. We build upon recent work that connects many of these tests under a common framework, by describing how selective sweeps affect the scaled SFS. We show that the specific skew depends on many attributes of the sweep, including the selection coefficient and the time under selection. Using supervised learning on extensive simulated data, we characterize the features of the scaled SFS that best separate different types of selective sweeps from neutrality. We develop a test, SFselect, that consistently outperforms many existing tests over a wide range of selective sweeps. We apply SFselect to polymorphism data from a laboratory evolution experiment of Drosophila melanogaster adapted to hypoxia and identify loci that strengthen the role of the Notch pathway in hypoxia tolerance, but were missed by previous approaches. We further apply our test to human data and identify regions that are in agreement with earlier studies, as well as many novel regions.

Fluctuations in the strength and direction of natural selection through time are a ubiquitous feature of life on Earth. One evolutionary outcome of such fluctuations is adaptive tracking, wherein populations rapidly adapt from standing genetic variation. In certain circumstances, adaptive tracking can lead to the long-term maintenance of functional polymorphism despite allele frequency change due to selection. Although adaptive tracking is likely a common process, we still have a limited understanding of aspects of its genetic architecture and its strength relative to other evolutionary forces such as drift. Drosophila melanogaster living in temperate regions evolve to track seasonal fluctuations and are an excellent system to tackle these gaps in knowledge. By sequencing orchard populations collected across multiple years, we characterized the genomic signal of seasonal demography and identified that the cosmopolitan inversion In(2L)t facilitates seasonal adaptive tracking and shows molecular footprints of selection. A meta-analysis of phenotypic studies shows that seasonal loci within In(2L)t are associated with behavior, life history, physiology, and morphological traits. We identify candidate loci and experimentally link them to phenotype. Our work contributes to our general understanding of fluctuating selection and highlights the evolutionary outcome and dynamics of contemporary selection on inversions., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The author(s) declare no conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America.)

The discrete-time Wright-Fisher (DTWF) model and its diffusion limit are central to population genetics. These models can describe the forward-in-time evolution of allele frequencies in a population resulting from genetic drift, mutation, and selection. Computing likelihoods under the diffusion process is feasible, but the diffusion approximation breaks down for large samples or in the presence of strong selection. Existing methods for computing likelihoods under the DTWF model do not scale to current exome sequencing sample sizes in the hundreds of thousands. Here, we present a scalable algorithm that approximates the DTWF model with provably bounded error. Our approach relies on two key observations about the DTWF model. The first is that transition probabilities under the model are approximately sparse. The second is that transition distributions for similar starting allele frequencies are extremely close as distributions. Together, these observations enable approximate matrix-vector multiplication in linear (as opposed to the usual quadratic) time. We prove similar properties for Hypergeometric distributions, enabling fast computation of likelihoods for subsamples of the population. We show theoretically and in practice that this approximation is highly accurate and can scale to population sizes in the tens of millions, paving the way for rigorous biobank-scale inference. Finally, we use our results to estimate the impact of larger samples on estimating selection coefficients for loss-of-function variants. We find that increasing sample sizes beyond existing large exome sequencing cohorts will provide essentially no additional information except for genes with the most extreme fitness effects., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The author(s) declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

We construct a reliable estimation method for evolutionary parameters within the Wright-Fisher model, which describes changes in allele frequencies due to selection and genetic drift, from time-series data. Such data exist for biological populations, for example via artificial evolution experiments, and for the cultural evolution of behavior, such as linguistic corpora that document historical usage of different words with similar meanings. Our method of analysis builds on a Beta-with-Spikes approximation to the distribution of allele frequencies predicted by the Wright-Fisher model. We introduce a self-contained scheme for estimating parameters in the approximation, and demonstrate its robustness with synthetic data, especially in the strong-selection and near-extinction regimes where previous approaches fail. We further apply the method to allele frequency data for baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae), finding a significant signal of selection in cases where independent evidence supports such a conclusion. We further demonstrate the possibility of detecting time points at which evolutionary parameters change in the context of a historical spelling reform in the Spanish language., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The author(s) declare no conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America.)

Rapid phenotypic adaptation is widespread in nature, but the underlying genetic dynamics remain controversial. Whereas population genetics envisages sequential beneficial substitutions, quantitative genetics assumes a collective response through subtle shifts in allele frequencies. This dichotomy of a monogenic and a highly polygenic view of adaptation raises the question of a middle ground, as well as the factors controlling the transition. Here, we consider an additive quantitative trait with equal locus effects under Gaussian stabilizing selection that adapts to a new trait optimum after an environmental change. We present an analytical framework based on Yule branching processes to describe how phenotypic adaptation is achieved by collective changes in allele frequencies at the underlying loci. In particular, we derive an approximation for the joint allele-frequency distribution conditioned on the trait mean as a comprehensive descriptor of the adaptive architecture. Depending on the model parameters, this architecture reproduces the well-known patterns of sequential, monogenic sweeps, or of subtle, polygenic frequency shifts. Between these endpoints, we observe oligogenic architecture types that exhibit characteristic patterns of partial sweeps. We find that a single compound parameter, the population-scaled background mutation rate Θbg, is the most important predictor of the type of adaptation, while selection strength, the number of loci in the genetic basis, and linkage only play a minor role., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest statement The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America.)

Drosophila subobscura is a Palearctic species that has recently colonized the Americas. It was first found in 1978 in Puerto Montt, Chile, and in 1982 in Port Townsend, WA. The colonization and rapid expansion of the species in western South and North America provides distinctive opportunities for investigating the process of evolution in action. The inversion polymorphism in the O chromosome from populations of central California and northern Washington, separated by 1300 km, corresponds to a previously observed latitudinal cline, also observed in Europe. Recessive lethal genes are not randomly distributed among the chromosomal arrangements. The incidence of lethal allelism is high, yielding unrealistically low estimates of the effective size of these populations (on the order of 1000 individuals). The high incidence of lethal allelism is likely to be a consequence of the low number of the American colonizers (on the order of 10-100 individuals), but the persistence of the allelism over several years suggests that some lethal-carrying chromosomes may be heterotic owing to shared associations between lethal and other genes.

Genetic selection has been applied for many generations in animal, plant, and experimental populations. Selection changes the allelic architecture of traits to create genetic gain. It remains unknown whether the changes in allelic architecture are different for the recently introduced technique of genomic selection compared to traditional selection methods and whether they depend on the genetic architectures of traits. Here, we investigate the allele frequency changes of old and new causal loci under 50 generations of phenotypic, pedigree, and genomic selection, for a trait controlled by either additive, additive and dominance, or additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. Genomic selection resulted in slightly larger and faster changes in allele frequencies of causal loci than pedigree selection. For each locus, allele frequency change per generation was not only influenced by its statistical additive effect but also to a large extent by the linkage phase with other loci and its allele frequency. Selection fixed a large number of loci, and 5 times more unfavorable alleles became fixed with genomic and pedigree selection than with phenotypic selection. For pedigree selection, this was mainly a result of increased genetic drift, while genetic hitchhiking had a larger effect on genomic selection. When epistasis was present, the average allele frequency change was smaller (∼15% lower), and a lower number of loci became fixed for all selection methods. We conclude that for long-term genetic improvement using genomic selection, it is important to consider hitchhiking and to limit the loss of favorable alleles., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America.)

Recurrent mutation produces multiple copies of the same allele which may be co-segregating in a population. Yet, most analyses of allele-frequency or site-frequency spectra assume that all observed copies of an allele trace back to a single mutation. We develop a sampling theory for the number of latent mutations in the ancestry of a rare variant, specifically a variant observed in relatively small count in a large sample. Our results follow from the statistical independence of low-count mutations, which we show to hold for the standard neutral coalescent or diffusion model of population genetics as well as for more general coalescent trees. For populations of constant size, these counts are distributed like the number of alleles in the Ewens sampling formula. We develop a Poisson sampling model for populations of varying size and illustrate it using new results for site-frequency spectra in an exponentially growing population. We apply our model to a large data set of human SNPs and use it to explain dramatic differences in site-frequency spectra across the range of mutation rates in the human genome., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America.)

Identifying the genetic architecture of complex traits is important to many geneticists, including those interested in human disease, plant and animal breeding, and evolutionary genetics. Advances in sequencing technology and statistical methods for genome-wide association studies have allowed for the identification of more variants with smaller effect sizes, however, many of these identified polymorphisms fail to be replicated in subsequent studies. In addition to sampling variation, this failure to replicate reflects the complexities introduced by factors including environmental variation, genetic background, and differences in allele frequencies among populations. Using Drosophila melanogaster wing shape, we ask if we can replicate allelic effects of polymorphisms first identified in a genome-wide association studies in three genes: dachsous, extra-macrochaete, and neuralized, using artificial selection in the lab, and bulk segregant mapping in natural populations. We demonstrate that multivariate wing shape changes associated with these genes are aligned with major axes of phenotypic and genetic variation in natural populations. Following seven generations of artificial selection along the dachsous shape change vector, we observe genetic differentiation of variants in dachsous and genomic regions containing other genes in the hippo signaling pathway. This suggests a shared direction of effects within a developmental network. We also performed artificial selection with the extra-macrochaete shape change vector, which is not a part of the hippo signaling network, but showed a largely shared direction of effects. The response to selection along the emc vector was similar to that of dachsous, suggesting that the available genetic diversity of a population, summarized by the genetic (co)variance matrix (G), influenced alleles captured by selection. Despite the success with artificial selection, bulk segregant analysis using natural populations did not detect these same variants, likely due to the contribution of environmental variation and low minor allele frequencies, coupled with small effect sizes of the contributing variants., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

In continuous populations with local migration, nearby pairs of individuals have on average more similar genotypes than geographically well-separated pairs. A barrier to gene flow distorts this classical pattern of isolation by distance. Genetic similarity is decreased for sample pairs on different sides of the barrier and increased for pairs on the same side near the barrier. Here, we introduce an inference scheme that uses this signal to detect and estimate the strength of a linear barrier to gene flow in two dimensions. We use a diffusion approximation to model the effects of a barrier on the geographic spread of ancestry backward in time. This approach allows us to calculate the chance of recent coalescence and probability of identity by descent. We introduce an inference scheme that fits these theoretical results to the geographic covariance structure of bialleleic genetic markers. It can estimate the strength of the barrier as well as several demographic parameters. We investigate the power of our inference scheme to detect barriers by applying it to a wide range of simulated data. We also showcase an example application to an Antirrhinum majus (snapdragon) flower-color hybrid zone, where we do not detect any signal of a strong genome-wide barrier to gene flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population genomic datasets collected over the past decade have spurred interest in developing methods that can utilize massive numbers of loci for inference of demographic and selective histories of populations. The allele frequency spectrum (AFS) provides a convenient statistic for such analysis, and, accordingly, much attention has been paid to predicting theoretical expectations of the AFS under a number of different models. However, to date, exact solutions for the joint AFS of two or more populations under models of migration and divergence have not been found. Here, we present a novel Markov chain representation of the coalescent on the state space of the joint AFS that allows for rapid, exact calculation of the joint AFS under isolation with migration (IM) models. In turn, we show how our Markov chain method, in the context of composite likelihood estimation, can be used for accurate inference of parameters of the IM model using SNP data. Lastly, we apply our method to recent whole genome datasets from African Drosophila melanogaster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

FST is one of the most widely used statistics in population genetics. Recent mathematical studies have identified constraints that challenge interpretations of FST as a measure with potential to range from 0 for genetically similar populations to 1 for divergent populations. We generalize results obtained for population pairs to arbitrarily many populations, characterizing the mathematical relationship between FST; the frequency M of the more frequent allele at a polymorphic biallelic marker, and the number of subpopulations K. We show that for fixed K, FST has a peculiar constraint as a function of M, with a maximum of 1 only if M = i/K, for integers i with [K/2]≤ i ≤ K - 1: For fixed M, as K grows large, the range of FST becomes the closed or half-open unit interval. For fixed K, however, some M < (K-1)/K always exists at which the upper bound on FST lies below 2√2-2 ≈ 0:8284: We use coalescent simulations to show that under weak migration, FST depends strongly on M when K is small, but not when K is large. Finally, examining data on human genetic variation, we use our results to explain the generally smaller FST values between pairs of continents relative to global FST values. We discuss implications for the interpretation and use of FST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of gene location within a crop genome on its transfer to a weed genome remains an open question for gene flow assessment. To elucidate this question, we analyzed advanced generations of intergeneric hybrids, derived from an initial pollination of known oilseed rape varieties (Brassica napus, AACC, 2n = 38) by a local population of wild radish (Raphanus raphanistrum, RrRr, 2n = 18). After five generations of recurrent pollination, 307 G5 plants with a chromosome number similar to wild radish were genotyped using 105 B. napus specific markers well distributed along the chromosomes. They revealed that 49.8% of G5 plants carried at least one B. napus genomic region. According to the frequency of B. napus markers (0-28%), four classes were defined: Class 1 (near zero frequency), with 75 markers covering ~70% of oilseed rape genome; Class 2 (low frequency), with 20 markers located on 11 genomic regions; Class 3 (high frequency), with eight markers on three genomic regions; and Class 4 (higher frequency), with two adjacent markers detected on A10. Therefore, some regions of the oilseed rape genome are more prone than others to be introgressed into wild radish. Inheritance and growth of plant progeny revealed that genomic regions of oilseed rape could be stably introduced into wild radish and variably impact the plant fitness (plant height and seed number). Our results pinpoint that novel technologies enabling the targeted insertion of transgenes should select genomic regions that are less likely to be introgressed into the weed genome, thereby reducing gene flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal is a crucial factor in natural evolution, since it determines the habitat experienced by any population and defines the spatial scale of interactions between individuals. There is compelling evidence for systematic differences in dispersal characteristics within the same population, i.e., genotype-dependent dispersal. The consequences of genotype-dependent dispersal on other evolutionary phenomena, however, are poorly understood. In this article we investigate the effect of genotype-dependent dispersal on spatial gene frequency patterns, using a generalization of the classical diffusion model of selection and dispersal. Dispersal is characterized by the variance of dispersal (diffusion coefficient) and the mean displacement (directional advection term). We demonstrate that genotype-dependent dispersal may change the qualitative behavior of Fisher waves, which change from being "pulled" to being "pushed" wave fronts as the discrepancy in dispersal between genotypes increases. The speed of any wave is partitioned into components due to selection, genotype-dependent variance of dispersal, and genotype-dependent mean displacement. We apply our findings to wave fronts maintained by selection against heterozygotes. Furthermore, we identify a benefit of increased variance of dispersal, quantify its effect on the speed of the wave, and discuss the implications for the evolution of dispersal strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In studying allele-frequency variation across populations, it is often convenient to classify an allelic type as "rare," with nonzero frequency less than or equal to a specified threshold, "common," with a frequency above the threshold, or entirely unobserved in a population. When sample sizes differ across populations, however, especially if the threshold separating "rare" and "common" corresponds to a small number of observed copies of an allelic type, discreteness effects can lead a sample from one population to possess substantially more rare allelic types than a sample from another population, even if the two populations have extremely similar underlying allele-frequency distributions across loci. We introduce a rarefaction-based sample-size correction for use in comparing rare and common variation across multiple populations whose sample sizes potentially differ. We use our approach to examine rare and common variation in worldwide human populations, finding that the sample-size correction introduces subtle differences relative to analyses that use the full available sample sizes. We introduce several ways in which the rarefaction approach can be applied: we explore the dependence of allele classifications on subsample sizes, we permit more than two classes of allelic types of nonzero frequency, and we analyze rare and common variation in sliding windows along the genome. The results can assist in clarifying similarities and differences in allele-frequency patterns across populations., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America.)

Interpopulation improvement for crosses of close populations in crops and livestock depends on the amount of heterosis and the amount of variance of dominance deviations in the hybrids. It has been intuited that the further the distance between populations, the lower the amount of dominance variation and the higher the heterosis. Although experience in speciation and interspecific crosses shows, however, that this is not the case when populations are so distant-here we confine ourselves to the case of not-too-distant populations typical in crops and livestock. We present equations that relate the distance between 2 populations, expressed as Nei's genetic distance or as correlation of allele frequencies, quadratically to the amount of dominance deviations across all possible crosses and linearly to the expected heterosis averaging all possible crosses. The amount of variation of dominance deviations decreases with genetic distance until the point where allele frequencies are uncorrelated, and then increases for negatively correlated frequencies. Heterosis always increases with Nei's genetic distance. These expressions match well and complete previous theoretical and empirical findings. In practice, and for close enough populations, they mean that unless frequencies are negatively correlated, selection for hybrids will be more efficient when populations are distant., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest The author(s) declare no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Genetics Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Natural selection not only affects the actual loci under selection but also leaves "footprints" in patterns of genetic variation in linked genetic regions. This offers exciting opportunities for inferring selection and for understanding the processes shaping levels of genetic variation in natural populations. Here, we develop analytical approximations based on coalescent theory to characterize the genetic footprint of a complex, but potentially common type of natural selection: balancing selection with seasonally fluctuating allele frequencies. As we show analytically and confirm with stochastic simulations, seasonal allele frequency fluctuations can have important (and partly unexpected) consequences for the genetic footprint of balancing selection. Fluctuating balancing selection generally leads to an increase in genetic diversity close to the selected site, the effect of balancing selection, but reduces diversity further away from the selected site, which is a consequence of the allele-frequency fluctuations effectively producing recurrent bottlenecks of allelic backgrounds. This medium- and long-range reduction usually outweighs the short-range increase when averaging diversity levels across the entire chromosome. Strong fluctuating balancing selection even induces a loss of genetic variation in unlinked regions, e.g. on different chromosomes. If many loci in the genome are simultaneously under fluctuating balancing selection this can lead to substantial genome-wide reductions in genetic diversity, even when allele-frequency fluctuations are small and local footprints are difficult to detect. Thus, together with genetic drift, selective sweeps and background selection, fluctuating selection could be a major force shaping levels of genetic diversity in natural populations., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest None declared., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Genetics Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The effective population size (Ne) is a major factor determining allele frequency changes in natural and experimental populations. Temporal methods provide a powerful and simple approach to estimate short-term Ne: They use allele frequency shifts between temporal samples to calculate the standardized variance, which is directly related to Ne: Here we focus on experimental evolution studies that often rely on repeated sequencing of samples in pools (Pool-seq). Pool-seq is cost-effective and often outperforms individual-based sequencing in estimating allele frequencies, but it is associated with atypical sampling properties: Additional to sampling individuals, sequencing DNA in pools leads to a second round of sampling, which increases the variance of allele frequency estimates. We propose a new estimator of Ne; which relies on allele frequency changes in temporal data and corrects for the variance in both sampling steps. In simulations, we obtain accurate Ne estimates, as long as the drift variance is not too small compared to the sampling and sequencing variance. In addition to genome-wide Ne estimates, we extend our method using a recursive partitioning approach to estimate Ne locally along the chromosome. Since the type I error is controlled, our method permits the identification of genomic regions that differ significantly in their Ne estimates. We present an application to Pool-seq data from experimental evolution with Drosophila and provide recommendations for whole-genome data. The estimator is computationally efficient and available as an R package at https://github.com/ThomasTaus/Nest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The admixture between modern humans and Neandertals has resulted in ∼2% of the genomes of present-day non-Africans being composed of Neandertal DNA. Introgressed Neandertal DNA has been demonstrated to significantly affect the transcriptomic landscape in people today and via this molecular mechanism influence phenotype variation as well. However, little is known about how much of that regulatory impact is mediated through long-range regulatory effects that have been shown to explain ∼20% of expression variation. Here we identified 60 transcription factors (TFs) with their top cis-eQTL SNP in GTEx being of Neandertal ancestry and predicted long-range Neandertal DNA-induced regulatory effects by screening for the predicted target genes of those TFs. We show that the TFs form a significantly connected protein-protein interaction network. Among them are JUN and PRDM5, two brain-expressed TFs that have their predicted target genes enriched in regions devoid of Neandertal DNA. Archaic cis-eQTLs for the 60 TFs include multiple candidates for local adaptation, some of which show significant allele frequency increases over the last ∼10,000 years. A large proportion of the cis-eQTL-associated archaic SNPs have additional associations with various immune traits, schizophrenia, blood cell type composition and anthropometric measures. Finally, we demonstrate that our results are consistent with those of Neandertal DNA-associated empirical trans-eQTLs. Our results suggest that Neandertal DNA significantly influences regulatory networks, that its regulatory reach goes beyond the 40% of genomic sequence it still covers in present-day non-Africans and that via the investigated mechanism Neandertal DNA influences the phenotypic variation in people today., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Genetics Society of America.)

The joint and accurate inference of selection and demography from genetic data is considered a particularly challenging question in population genetics, since both process may lead to very similar patterns of genetic diversity. However, additional information for disentangling these effects may be obtained by observing changes in allele frequencies over multiple time points. Such data are common in experimental evolution studies, as well as in the comparison of ancient and contemporary samples. Leveraging this information, however, has been computationally challenging, particularly when considering multilocus data sets. To overcome these issues, we introduce a novel, discrete approximation for diffusion processes, termed mean transition time approximation, which preserves the long-term behavior of the underlying continuous diffusion process. We then derive this approximation for the particular case of inferring selection and demography from time series data under the classic Wright-Fisher model and demonstrate that our approximation is well suited to describe allele trajectories through time, even when only a few states are used. We then develop a Bayesian inference approach to jointly infer the population size and locus-specific selection coefficients with high accuracy and further extend this model to also infer the rates of sequencing errors and mutations. We finally apply our approach to recent experimental data on the evolution of drug resistance in influenza virus, identifying likely targets of selection and finding evidence for much larger viral population sizes than previously reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deleterious alleles can reach high frequency in small populations because of random fluctuations in allele frequency. This may lead, over time, to reduced average fitness. In this sense, selection is more "effective" in larger populations. Recent studies have considered whether the different demographic histories across human populations have resulted in differences in the number, distribution, and severity of deleterious variants, leading to an animated debate. This article first seeks to clarify some terms of the debate by identifying differences in definitions and assumptions used in recent studies. We argue that variants of Morton, Crow, and Muller's "total mutational damage" provide the soundest and most practical basis for such comparisons. Using simulations, analytical calculations, and 1000 Genomes Project data, we provide an intuitive and quantitative explanation for the observed similarity in genetic load across populations. We show that recent demography has likely modulated the effect of selection and still affects it, but the net result of the accumulated differences is small. Direct observation of differential efficacy of selection for specific allele classes is nevertheless possible with contemporary data sets. By contrast, identifying average genome-wide differences in the efficacy of selection across populations will require many modeling assumptions and is unlikely to provide much biological insight about human populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A powerful way to detect selection in a population is by modeling local allele frequency changes in a particular region of the genome under scenarios of selection and neutrality and finding which model is most compatible with the data. A previous method based on a cross-population composite likelihood ratio (XP-CLR) uses an outgroup population to detect departures from neutrality that could be compatible with hard or soft sweeps, at linked sites near a beneficial allele. However, this method is most sensitive to recent selection and may miss selective events that happened a long time ago. To overcome this, we developed an extension of XP-CLR that jointly models the behavior of a selected allele in a three-population tree. Our method - called "3-population composite likelihood ratio" (3P-CLR) - outperforms XP-CLR when testing for selection that occurred before two populations split from each other and can distinguish between those events and events that occurred specifically in each of the populations after the split. We applied our new test to population genomic data from the 1000 Genomes Project, to search for selective sweeps that occurred before the split of Yoruba and Eurasians, but after their split from Neanderthals, and that could have led to the spread of modern-human-specific phenotypes. We also searched for sweep events that occurred in East Asians, Europeans, and the ancestors of both populations, after their split from Yoruba. In both cases, we are able to confirm a number of regions identified by previous methods and find several new candidates for selection in recent and ancient times. For some of these, we also find suggestive functional mutations that may have driven the selective events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large amount and high quality of genomic data available today enable, in principle, accurate inference of evolutionary histories of observed populations. The Wright-Fisher model is one of the most widely used models for this purpose. It describes the stochastic behavior in time of allele frequencies and the influence of evolutionary pressures, such as mutation and selection. Despite its simple mathematical formulation, exact results for the distribution of allele frequency (DAF) as a function of time are not available in closed analytical form. Existing approximations build on the computationally intensive diffusion limit or rely on matching moments of the DAF. One of the moment-based approximations relies on the beta distribution, which can accurately describe the DAF when the allele frequency is not close to the boundaries (0 and 1). Nonetheless, under a Wright-Fisher model, the probability of being on the boundary can be positive, corresponding to the allele being either lost or fixed. Here we introduce the beta with spikes, an extension of the beta approximation that explicitly models the loss and fixation probabilities as two spikes at the boundaries. We show that the addition of spikes greatly improves the quality of the approximation. We additionally illustrate, using both simulated and real data, how the beta with spikes can be used for inference of divergence times between populations with comparable performance to an existing state-of-the-art method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]