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The North China Plain (NCP) was selected as the study area and the effects of water and heat were analysed to determine the dominant factor affecting winter wheat growth. The mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation and soil moisture data were selected to analyse the correlations between the leaf area index (the growth indicator) and these factors using long time series half-monthly data (2–5 months) (from 1982 to 2010). The results showed that temperature was the main factor affecting the growth of winter wheat in the NCP. The growth of winter wheat had weak correlations with precipitation and soil moisture and the influence of water on winter wheat growth was smaller than the influence of heat. In the northern part of the NCP, mainly including the north-west region of Shandong Province and the southern region of Hebei Province, irrigation was necessary in late February and early March. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]