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Start Over Topic air temperature Publication Year Range Last 50 years Journal geofizika
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1. Recent climate trends and future scenarios along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast.

Author

Shaltout, Mohamed, Gindy, Ahmed El, and Omstedt, Anders

Subjects
*CLIMATE change, *COMPARATIVE studies, *ATMOSPHERIC models, *METEOROLOGICAL observations, *COMPUTER simulation, *SEA level, *METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, *ATMOSPHERIC temperature
Abstract

This paper analyses the present Egyptian Mediterranean coast (EMC) climate and the response of its climate variables to global changes. First, the accuracy of the ERA-Interim dataset (1979-2010) for the studied region is examined by comparing these data with available independent observations. Second, the qualities of six global climate models (GCMs), together with the ensemble mean of multiple model realisations of the A1B scenario, are examined by comparing these with the ERA-Interim dataset. Finally, GCM simulations are used to describe the uncertainties in future climate change along the EMC. The results indicate that the observations are in good agreement with the ERA-Interim data. The data for the EMC, 1979-2000, display a significant positive trend for 2-m air temperature together with significant negative trends for total precipitation and sea level pressure. The climate model that best describes the present EMC climate is the CGCM 3.1 model, which is used to describe the future climate of the study area. The CGCM 3.1 model indicates that the EMC area will experience significant warming, substantial droughts, and a weak decrease in sea level pressure in the end of the current century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2013

2. Recent climate trends and future scenarios along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

Author

Mohamed Shaltout, Ahmed El Gindy, and Anders Omstedt

Subjects
Mediterranean Sea, Egypt, air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, climate, trend analysis, climatic models, Sredozemno more, Egipat, temperatura zraka, oborina, tlak zraka na razini mora, klima, analiza trenda, klimatski modeli
Abstract

This paper analyses the present Egyptian Mediterranean coast (EMC) climate and the response of its climate variables to global changes. First, the accuracy of the ERA-Interim dataset (1979–2010) for the studied region is examined by comparing these data with available independent observations. Second, the qualities of six global climate models (gCMs), together with the ensemble mean of multiple model realisations of the A1B scenario, are examined by comparing these with the ERA-Interim dataset. Finally, gCM simulations are used to describe the uncertainties in future climate change along the EMC. The results indicate that the observations are in good agreement with the ERA-Interim data. The data for the EMC, 1979–2000, display a significant positive trend for 2-m air temperature together with significant negative trends for total precipitation and sea level pressure. The climate model that best de¬scribes the present EMC climate is the CgCM 3.1 model, which is used to describe the future climate of the study area. The CgCM 3.1 model indicates that the EMC area will experience significant warming, substantial droughts, and a weak decrease in sea level pressure in the end of the current century., Ovaj rad analizira sadašnju klimu mediteranskog obalnog područja Egipta (EMC) i odziv odgovarajućih klimatskih varijabli na globalne promjene. Ispitano je podudaranje ERA-Interim baze podataka za razdoblje 1979–2010 za promatrano područje s raspoloživim podacima neovisnih opažanja. Nadalje, usporedbom s ERA-Interim bazom podataka ispitana je pouzdanost šest globalnih klimatskih modela (GCM), zajedno sa srednjakom ansambla višestrukih modelskih realizacija A1B scenarija. Konačno, GCM simulacije su korištene za opisivanje nepouzdanosti u budućoj promjeni klime duž EMC-a. Rezultati pokazuju da se opažanja dobro slažu s ERA-Interim podacima. Podaci za EMC u razdoblju 1979–2010 ukazuju na signifikantni pozitivni trend temperature zraka na 2 m visine, koji je popraćen signifikantnim negativnim trendovima ukupne oborine i tlaka zraka na morskoj razini. Klimatski model koji najbolje opisuje sadašnju EMC klimu je CGCM 3.1, koji je upotrebljen za opisivanje buduće klime razmatranog područja. Model CGCM 3.1 ukazuje na to da EMC područje krajem ovog stoljeća očekuje signifikantno zatopljenje uz značajne suše i blago smanjenje tlaka zraka na razini mora.

Published
2013