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The estimation of the slope (b -value) of the frequency–magnitude distribution of earthquakes is based on a formula derived by Aki decades ago, assuming a continuous exponential distribution. However, as the magnitude is usually provided with a limited resolution, its distribution is not continuous but discrete. In the literature, this problem was initially solved by an empirical correction (due to Utsu) to the minimum magnitude, and later by providing an exact formula such as that by Tinti and Mulargia, based on the geometric distribution theory. A recent paper by van der Elst showed that the b -value can be estimated also by considering the magnitude differences (which are proven to follow an exponential discrete Laplace distribution) and that in this case the estimator is more resilient to the incompleteness of the magnitude data set. In this work, we provide the complete theoretical formulation including (i) the derivation of the means and standard deviations of the discrete exponential and Laplace distributions; (ii) the estimators of the decay parameter of the discrete exponential and trimmed Laplace distributions and (iii) the corresponding formulas for the parameter b. We deduce (iv) the standard 1 σ intervals for the estimated b. Moreover, we are able (v) to quantify the error associated with the Utsu minimum-magnitude correction. Furthermore, we have discussed the formulas to produce statistically independent magnitude differences. We tested extensively the b -value estimators on simulated synthetic data sets including complete catalogues as well as catalogues affected by a strong incompleteness degree such as aftershock sequences where the incompleteness is made to vary from one event to the next. We have also analysed the real aftershock sequence of the 30/10/2016 Norcia (central Italy) to integrate the finding of the simulations. To judge the performance of the various estimators we have introduced an index p that can be seen as a non-parametric extension of the Student's t index. The main outcomes of this paper are that (1) the b -value estimators devised for continuous magnitude data are not adequate for binned magnitudes, (2) for complete data sets, estimators based on magnitudes and on magnitude differences provide substantially equivalent results, (3) for incomplete magnitude data sets, estimators based on magnitude differences provide better results and (4) for incomplete aftershock sequences there is no evidence that methods based on positive magnitude differences are superior than other methods using differences. This conclusion is further confirmed by our analysis of the above-mentioned Norcia seismic sequence. This last finding contrasts with the van der Elst's claim that the so called |${{b}_ + }$| method is the most adequate to treat real aftershock sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we gather and take stock of the results produced by the Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) system in Italy, during its first 10 yr of operativity. The system is run in real-time: every midnight and after each M L 3.5+ event, it produces the weekly forecast of earthquakes expected by an ensemble model in each cell of a spatial grid covering the entire Italian territory. To evaluate the performance skill of the OEF-Italy forecasts, we consider here standard tests of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, which have been opportunely adapted to the case of the overlapped weekly OEF forecasts; then we also adopt new performance measures borrowed from other research fields, like meteorology, specific to validate alarm-based systems by a binary criterion (forecast: yes/no; occurrence: yes/no). Our final aim is to: (i) investigate possible weaknesses and room for improvements in the OEF-Italy stochastic modelling, (ii) provide performance measures that could be helpful for stakeholders who act through a boolean logic (making an action or not) and (iii) highlight possible features in the Italian tectonic seismic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of local seismic response plays a key role in assessing local seismic hazard and particularly in the design of shaking scenarios. Modelling local seismic response involves knowing of the shear wave velocity (VS) and quality factor (QS) profiles for the site in question. The many techniques that have been developed to assess VS in surface deposits produce reliable measurements of VS , but these rarely correspond to direct measurements of QS. The latter is often considered through damping measures from laboratory tests on small-scale soil samples, which can provide information primarily on intrinsic attenuation, neglecting the contribution of scattering effects. In this paper, using seismic recordings obtained at the surface and in boreholes at 100 m depth, we estimate an average value of QS of some characteristic alluvial deposits of the Po Plain (northern Italy). Data come from a microseismic network which sampled an almost uniform lithology in the central Po Plain and consisted of three surface and four borehole stations with an interstation distance of about 2 km. The average value of QS of the shallowest 100 m of the sedimentary strata, Q S ,100, is estimated by considering: (1) the high-frequency attenuation of seismic waves due to propagation through the corresponding stratigraphy and (2) the interference between incident and surface-reflected waves observed at borehole stations. We parametrize the first through |$\Delta k_{0_{ {100}}}$|⁠ , the difference between the values of the spectral decay parameter kappa (k) estimated at the surface and at the boreholes depth, respectively. We use the second in order to compute V S ,100, the time-averaged VS referred to the uppermost 100 m stratigraphy. We obtain: |$\Delta k_{0_{ {100}}} = (11 \pm 3)\,$|  ms, |${V_{S,100}} \, =\, (309\, \pm \, 11)\,$| m s−1 and |${Q_{S,100}} \, =\, 31 \pm 10$|⁠. At the surface, the estimated values of the site-specific kappa, k 0, are found to range from 75 to 79 ms. As expected, these results are in good agreement with studies performed in other sites characterized by sandy or clayey lithologies, and can be usefully used in site response analysis at sites where the rigidity is mainly controlled by lithostatic pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we deal with statistical features of earthquakes, seeking possible correlations between the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude distribution and the short-term clustering in an area of the Central Apennines, Italy, where significant seismicity with earthquakes exceeding magnitude 6.0 has been repeatedly observed from 1990 to the present. For this purpose, a recently developed version of the ETAS model, incorporating a 3-D spatial triggering kernel, has been adopted. Our analysis has been carried out representing the b -value and the probability of independence of events on six vertical cross-sections suitably related to the seismic structures that are considered responsible of the seismicity observed in the study area. The results of the statistical analysis of the seismicity in the study area have shown a clear distinction between the western normal low-angle fault system, characterized by eastward dip and the eastern normal fault systems, with westward dip. In the former (Etrurian Fault System ; EFS) we found seismicity with a high b -value and high probability of independence, that is a scarce capacity of producing clusters and strong aftershock sequences. The eastern fault systems of our study area are distinguishable in two main distinct systems, which generated two strong seismic sequences in 1997 and 2016–2017. In the former (Colfiorito) sequence the seismicity showed a very low b -value and a modest probability of independence, while in the latter (Central Italy) sequence the b -value was significantly higher and the probability of independence had extremely low values (manifesting a high level of clustering). The much higher b -value of the EFS than the other extensional sources could be caused by its peculiar seismotectonic role of discontinuity at the base of the normal active faulting, and its reduced capacity of accumulating stress. This circumstance may be interpreted by a difference in the rheological properties of these fault systems, possibly also in relation to their present status in the earthquake cycle and the presence of strong aftershock sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the M w 3.9 earthquake that occurred in the Ischia island (Naples, southern Italy) on 21 August 2017, the local monitoring seismic network was significantly improved in terms of both number of stations and instrumentation performance. Due to the huge amount of collected seismic ambient noise data, in this paper we present a first 3-D shear wave velocity model of the island retrieved from the inversion of horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio curves by fixing the shear wave velocities (Vs) and modifying the thicknesses to get the corresponding 1-D Vs models. We are confident about the robustness of the attained models since the inversion process provided a good convergence towards the best-fitting solutions. Then, a first 3-D velocity model was obtained by contouring all the 1-D models obtained for the selected seismic stations to highlight possible lateral variations of the layer thicknesses and to reconstruct the morphology of the deeper interface characterized by a high-impedance contrast. A good correspondence between the 3-D Vs model and the geological features of the island was observed, especially in the northern sector where most of the stations are installed. In particular, the top of the high-impedance contrast interface appears deeper in the northern coastal areas and shallower in the central sector. This result agrees with the structural settings of the island likely due to the resurgence of Mount Epomeo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: We estimate the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes in the early stage of the Costa Marchigiana (Italy) seismic sequence, starting on 2022 November 9, with an ML 5.7 event in the Adriatic sea. In particular, we estimate both the completeness magnitude Mc and the b-value within the first 4 and 7 d after the initial strong event in the sequence. Our work represents a practical example of b-value estimation in 'true' real time, that is, during the seismic sequence, and its possible interpretation in terms of short-term forecasting. We highlight some critical issues to consider both in estimating/intepreting the b-value, and in evaluating the real time estimation of Mc. These issues are mainly due to the fact that preliminary catalogues available in real time are quite different from the revised ones, which are usually delivered after a few months. The criticalities are linked to the raw data recorded at an early-stage, an unreliable evaluation of the Mc with statistical approaches, the Short Term Aftershock Incompleteness entailed after the initial strong event, and the magnitude binning. Our results show that real time estimation of the b-value can give insights into the evolution of an ongoing seismic sequence, when attention is paid to data quality and quantity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In traditional tight integration of high-rate GNSS and strong motion sensors, an appropriate process variance is crucial for obtaining accurate broad-band coseismic deformations. In this paper, instead of using a subjectively empirical value, we present an approach for determining the process variance adaptively based on the adaptive Kalman filter for real-time use. The performance of the approach was validated by the colocated stations collected during the 2010 M w 7.2 earthquake in El-Mayor, 2016 M w 7.8 earthquake in New Zealand and 2016 M w 6.5 earthquake in central Italy. The results show that this method complements the advantages of GNSS and strong motion accelerometers and can provide more accurate coseismic waveforms especially during the strong shaking period, due to the ability of the method to adjust the process variance in real time according to the actual status of the station. In addition, this method is also free from the influence of the baseline shift. Testing of the new method for the integration of strong motion and multi-GNSS indicates that multi-GNSS has an obvious improvement in the precision while single GPS has a poor observation condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The joint inversion of multiple data sets encompasses the advantages of different geophysical methods but may yield to conflicting solutions. Global search methods have been recently developed to address the issue of local minima found by derivative-based methods, to analyse the data compatibility and to find the set of trade-off solutions, since they are not unique. In this paper, we examine two evolutionary algorithms to solve the joint inversion of electrical and electromagnetic data. These nature-inspired metaheuristics also adopt the principle of Pareto optimality in order to identify the result among the feasible solutions and then infer the data compatibility. Since the joint inversion is characterized by more than one objective, we implemented the algorithm multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) to jointly interpret time-domain electromagnetic data and vertical electrical sounding. We first tested MOPSO on a synthetic model. The performance of MOPSO was directly compared with that of a multi-objective genetic algorithm, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-III), which has often been adopted in geophysics. The adoption of MOPSO and NSGA-III enabled avoiding both simplification into a single-objective problem and the use of a weighting factor between the objectives. We tested the two methods on real data sets collected in the northwest of Italy. The results obtained from MOPSO and NSGA-III were highly comparable to each other and largely consistent with literature findings. The MOPSO performed a rigorous selection of the best trade-off solutions and its convergence was faster than NSGA-III. The analysis of the Pareto Front reported data incompatibility, which is very common for real data due to different resolutions, sensitivities and depth of investigations. Notwithstanding this, the multi-objective optimizers provided a complementary interpretation of the data, ensuring significant advantages with respect to the separate optimizations we carried out using the single-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stimulated by the recent advances in computational tools for the simulation of seismic wave propagation problems in realistic geological configurations, this paper presents a 3D physicsbased numerical analysis of near-source ground motion during the MW 6.0 2012 May 29 earthquake in the Po Plain, Northern Italy. To reproduce with sufficient accuracy some of the most peculiar features of the near-source strong-motion records and of the spatial variability of damage distribution, this study required a sequence of investigations, starting from the analysis of a wide set of near-source records, to the calibration of an improved kinematic seismic source model, up to the development of a 3D numerical model of the portion of the Po Plain interested by the earthquake. The latter includes the basin geometry, characterized by sediment thickness sharply varying from few tens of metres to some kilometres. The spatial resolution of the numerical model is suitable to propagate frequencies up to about 1.5 Hz. Numerical simulations were performed using the open-source high-performance code SPEED, based on the Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements method. The 3D numerical model, coupled with the updated slip distribution along the rupturing fault, proved successful to reproduce with good agreement, measured through quantitative goodness-of-fit criteria, the most relevant features of the observed ground motion. These include: (i) the large fault normal velocity peaks at the near-source stations driven by updip directivity effects; (ii) the small-scale variability at short distance from the source, resulting in the out-of-phase motion at stations separated by only 3 km distance; (iii) the propagation of prominent trains of surface waves, especially in the Northern direction; (iv) the map of earthquake-induced ground uplift with maximum values of about 10 cm, in substantial agreement with geodetic measurements and (v) the two-lobed pattern of the peak ground velocity map, well correlated with the distribution of macroseismic intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The M ∼ 7 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake represents one of the most destructive seismic events ever occurred in the Italian Peninsula. Several seismogenic faults have been proposed in the past decades as the source of the earthquake by means of different approaches and techniques that lead to a variety of speculations about the source mechanism and the fault location, often contrasting with one another. The 1915 earthquake produced a remarkable data set of 73 coseismic hydrological changes in the near and intermediate field that consist in variation of the flow of streams and springs, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity. In this paper, we study the coseismic water level changes induced by the 1915 earthquake in the near field to provide convincing clues on the geometry of the earthquake causative fault. We model the coseismic strain field induced by seventeen individual faults proposed through different approaches, and compare its pattern with the distribution of streamflow changes. We find: (i) clues on the most probable geometry of the earthquake causative fault. Best fits between modelled deformation and observed data are displayed by sources (derived by geological or seismological data) that share several distinctive features, as they are ∼135°-striking, SW-dipping, 25–30-km-long normal faults located along the eastern side of the Fucino basin. These data point to the Serrone Fault and the Parasano Fault as the most likely causative structures and support the hypothesis that the coseismic ruptures observed in the field represented primary surface faulting. On the contrary, our calculations show that the Pescina Fault and the Ventrino Fault are secondary faults from the perspective of the hydrological response. Finally, one of the best scoring potential sources (from geological data) is a multifaulting system that considers the presence, in the central-western part of the basin, of fault splays synthetic and antithetic to the main seismogenic structures; therefore, we infer for these splays a possible active involvement in a 1915-like seismogenic process; (ii) evidence against a number of seismogenic structures that were previously associated with the earthquake. In particular, the plots of coseismic strain induced by sources uniquely derived by macroseismic or geodetic data prove to be inconsistent with the polarities of the hydrological signatures. Also, sources mainly characterized by reverse faulting and/or by right-lateral strike-slip component are discarded and (iii) as a final remark, we maintain that the study of the hydrological signatures of earthquake strain can offer an alternative tool in the investigation of the historical seismicity, to estimate the focal mechanism of major earthquakes capable of giving rise to a consistent data set of hydrological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide new results from a controlled-source seismic experiment on the deepest part of the Val Sesia crust–mantle section of the Ivrea–Verbano zone (IVZ) in the Italian Alps. The IVZ is a tilted, almost complete section through the continental crust and exposes gabbros and peridotites in the structurally deepest level, coinciding with high-resolution gravity anomalies imaging the Ivrea geophysical body. The seismic experiment SEIZE (SEismic imaging of the Ivrea ZonE) was conducted along two crossing profiles: an NNE-SSW profile of ∼11 km length and an E-W profile of ∼16 km length. 432 vibration points were recorded with 110 receivers resulting in 24   392 traveltime picks. Inversion methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques have been used to derive an isotropic 3-D P -wave velocity model based on first break traveltimes (refracted phases) from controlled source seismic data. Resulting seismic P -wave velocities (Vp) range from 4.5 to 7.5 km s−1, with an expected general trend of increasing velocities with depth. A sharp velocity change from low Vp in the West to high Vp in the East marks the Insubric Zone (ISZ), the Europe–Adria plate boundary. The most prominent feature of the 3-D tomography model is a high-velocity body (Vp increases from 6 to 7.5 km s−1) that broadens downwards. Its pointy shape peaks the surface East of Balmuccia at a location coincident with the exposed Balmuccia peridotite. Considering rock physics, high-resolution gravity and other geophysical data, we interpret this high-velocity body as dominantly composed of peridotite. The dimension of this seismically imaged peridotite material is far bigger than interpreted from geological cross-sections and requires a revision of previous models. The interpretation of ultramafic bodies in the IVZ as fragments of mantle peridotites interfingered in the crust during pre-Permian accretion is not supported by the new data. Instead, we revive a model that the contact between the Balmuccia peridotite and the Permian mafic magmas might represent a fossil continental crust–mantle transition zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results from a fully unconstrained moment tensor inversion of induced seismic events in a complex and high seismic hazard region (Val d'Agri basin, Southern Italy). The study area hosts two well-documented cases of induced microseismicity linked to (i) a wastewater injection well of a giant oilfield (the largest in onshore Europe), and (ii) severe seasonal level changes of an artificial lake. In order to gather information on the non-double-couple components of the source and to better understand the rupture mechanisms, we analyse seismic events recorded during daily injection tests in the disposal well. The computed moment tensors have significant non-double-couple components that correlate with the well-head injection pressure. The injection parameters strongly influence the rupture mechanism that can be interpreted as due to the opening/closing of a fracture network inside a fault zone of a pre-existing thrust fault. For the case of the reservoir-induced seismicity, no direct correlations are observed with the loading/unloading of the reservoir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) forecasting model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (⁠|$\psi $|) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has been previously applied to New Zealand, California and Japan earthquakes with target magnitude thresholds varying from about 5–7. In all previous application, computations were done using the computer code implemented in Fortran language by the model authors. In this work, we applied it to Italy using a suite of computing codes completely rewritten in Matlab. We first compared the two software codes to ensure the convergence and adequate coincidence between the estimated model parameters for a simple region capable of being analysed by both software codes. Then, using the rewritten codes, we optimized the parameters for a different and more complex polygon of analysis using the Homogenized Instrumental Seismic Catalogue data from 1990 to 2011. We then perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment of Italian earthquakes from 2012 to 2021 with M w ≥ 5.0 and compare the forecasting skill of EEPAS with those obtained by other time independent (Spatially Uniform Poisson, Spatially Variable Poisson and PPE: Proximity to Past Earthquakes) and time dependent [Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)] forecasting models using the information gain per active cell. The preference goes to the ETAS model for short time intervals (3 months) and to the EEPAS model for longer time intervals (6 months to 10 yr). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding mechanical processes occurring on faults requires detailed information on the microseismicity that can be enhanced today by advanced techniques for earthquake detection. This problem is challenging when the seismicity rate is low and most of the earthquakes occur at depth. In this study, we compare three detection techniques, the autocorrelation FAST, the machine learning EQTransformer, and the template matching EQCorrScan, to assess their ability to improve catalogues associated with seismic sequences in the normal fault system of Southern Apennines (Italy) using data from the Irpinia Near Fault Observatory (INFO). We found that the integration of the machine learning and template matching detectors, the former providing templates for the cross-correlation, largely outperforms techniques based on autocorrelation and machine learning alone, featuring an enrichment of the automatic and manual catalogues of factors 21 and 7, respectively. Since output catalogues can be polluted by many false positives, we applied refined event selection based on the cumulative distribution of their similarity level. We can thus clean up the detection lists and analyse final subsets dominated by real events. The magnitude of completeness decreases by more than one unit compared to the reference value for the network. We report b -values associated with sequences smaller than the average, likely corresponding to larger differential stresses than for the background seismicity of the area. For all the analysed sequences, we found that main events are anticipated by foreshocks, indicating a possible preparation process for main shocks at subkilometric scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate the correlation between the residuals of a neGMM (non-ergodic Ground Motion Model) and the physics-based parameters obtained using a non-parametric GIT approach (Generalized Inversion Technique) to lay the groundwork for the implementation of an ad-hoc FAS (Fourier Amplitude Spectra) neGMM for the Central Italy region. This region is particularly suitable for data-driven methodologies as those applied in this work because of the large amount of available data due to the recent multiple main shock–aftershock sequences occurred in this area. Both neGMM and GIT models are developed for Fourier spectra in the frequency range between 0.5 and 25 Hz and using the same reference sites. The comparison of the non-ergodic terms with the source, path and site spectral parameters provides interesting results. First, we find a strong correlation between the source parameters, stress drop Δσ and decay |${k}_{\mathrm{ source}}$| and the source neGMM corrective terms (the combination of the between-event δBe and the location-to-location terms δL2L). This correlation is frequency dependent and, at high frequency, is remarkably positive for Δσ and negative for |${k}_{\mathrm{ source}}$|⁠. Concerning the attenuation terms, the path-to-path residuals (δP2P) are clearly associated with the deviations from the regional Q estimates obtained from GIT analysis. This indicates that the neGMM properly captures the properties of the anelastic attenuation and that the corrective terms δP2P can be used to account for differences in travel paths across different crustal domains. Finally, adopting the same reference sites for neGMM and non-parametric GIT, we observe that the systematic site terms (δS2Ss) and the GIT-derived amplification functions are in good agreement. The next step for an appropriate modelling is to identify the physical parameters (e.g. VS,30 and |${k}_0$|⁠) describing the empirical amplification curves to be introduced as explanatory variables in the ground motion model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gutenberg–Richter b -value is thought to be a proxy of stress conditions in the crust and therefore able to locate asperities as zones of stress concentration responsible for the nucleation of strong events. The scientific literature contains a broad range of case studies showing precursory drops of b , just before the occurrence of strong events, and subsequent rises, during the early part of aftershocks sequences. Translating these results into hazard assessment, the b -value has assumed the status of a candidate precursor to the occurrence of an imminent large event. This issue is analysed here for three major seismic sequences that occurred recently in Italy. In comparison to previous studies, this investigation indicates that the variability of b may not be a reliable indicator of stress or a significant precursor in these examples, and instead may be assigned to a combination of chance, inhomogeneities in the data and inefficiencies in estimation methodologies. Consequently, extreme caution is required when we interpret b -values both as a proxy of physical processes involved in a seismic sequence and as a precursor to the occurrence of imminent strong events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robustness of source parameter estimates is a fundamental issue in understanding the relationships between small and large events; however, it is difficult to assess how much of the variability of the source parameters can be attributed to the physical source characteristics or to the uncertainties of the methods and data used to estimate the values. In this study, we apply the coda method by Mayeda et al. using the coda calibration tool (CCT), a freely available Java-based code (https://github.com/LLNL/coda-calibration-tool) to obtain a regional calibration for Central Italy for estimating stable source parameters. We demonstrate the power of the coda technique in this region and show that it provides the same robustness in source parameter estimation as a data-driven methodology [generalized inversion technique (GIT)], but with much fewer calibration events and stations. The Central Italy region is ideal for both GIT and coda approaches as it is characterized by high-quality data, including recent well-recorded seismic sequences such as L'Aquila (2009) and Amatrice–Norcia–Visso (2016–2017). This allows us to apply data-driven methods such as GIT and coda-based methods that require few, but high-quality data. The data set for GIT analysis includes ∼5000 earthquakes and more than 600 stations, while for coda analysis we used a small subset of 39 events spanning 3.5 <  M w < 6.33 and 14 well-distributed broad-band stations. For the common calibration events, as well as an additional 247 events (∼1.7 <  M w < ∼5.0) not used in either calibration, we find excellent agreement between GIT-derived and CCT-derived source spectra. This confirms the ability of the coda approach to obtain stable source parameters even with few calibration events and stations. Even reducing the coda calibration data set by 75 per cent, we found no appreciable degradation in performance. This validation of the coda calibration approach over a broad range of event size demonstrates that this procedure, once extended to other regions, represents a powerful tool for future routine applications to homogeneously evaluate robust source parameters on a national scale. Furthermore, the coda calibration procedure can homogenize the M w estimates for small and large events without the necessity of introducing any conversion scale between narrow-band measures such as local magnitude (M L) and M w, which has been shown to introduce significant bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: A detailed rock magnetic study was conducted on ash samples collected from different products erupted during explosive activity of Mount Etna, Italy, in order to test the use of magnetic properties as discriminating factors among them, and their explosive character in particular. Samples include tephra emplaced during the last 18 ka: the benmoreitic Plinian eruptions of the Pleistocene Ellittico activity from marine core ET97-70 (Ionian Sea) and the basaltic Holocene FG eruption (122 BC), the Strombolian/Phreatomagmatic/sub-Plinian eruptions (namely, the Holocene TV, FS, FL, ETP products and the 1990, 1998 eruptions) collected from the slope of the volcano, and the Recent explosive activity (lava fountains referred to as ' Ash Rich Jets and Plumes ', or ARJP) that occurred in the 2001–2002 period, related to flank eruptions. Mössbauer spectrometry informs that a single magnetic mineral dominates the three groups, which are characterized by variable magnetic grain sizes and composition. Detailed rock-magnetic investigations, ranging from low temperature to high temperature remanence and susceptibility experiments, indicate that the more explosive products of the Plinian eruptions and ARJP activity tephra, are characterized by oxidized Ti-rich titanomagnetites, with dominant Curie Temperatures between 230 and 330 °C. The FG and ARJP tephra are also characterized by contrasting, yet overall higher, coercivity distributions and higher magnetizations and susceptibilities, including below room temperature. In contrast, most of the Strombolian/sub-Plinian eruptions have a magnetic signature dominated by less coercive magnetite and/or Ti-poor titanomagnetite. Magnetic differences observed between the Late Pleistocene and Holocene FG Plinian eruptions can be attributed to the different composition of the former eruptions, which were fed by more evolved magmas, whereas geochemical variations characterizing the products erupted in the last few decades can be responsible for the differences between the Holocene and recent Strombolian/sub-Plinian products. Importantly, detailed magnetic investigation of sideromelane and tachylite clasts, the two end members of the juvenile fraction extracted from the ash of the most explosive products, determines that the tachylite fraction is responsible for the magnetic signature of the Plinian FG and ARJP tephra, and is attributed to the intense fragmentation that characterizes these activities, likely resulting from undercooling processes. Moreover, the abundant superparamagnetic grains associated with these eruptive styles are believed to represent the nanolite fraction responsible for the increasing viscosity of these magmas, and to be responsible for their explosive character. The distinctive magnetic properties that characterize the tachylite-bearing tephra, representative of the fragmentation process that distinguishes the most explosive activities, provides a useful magnetic tool that can complement traditional volcanological investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: Defining the regional variability of minimum magnitude for earthquake detection is crucial for planning seismic networks. Knowing the earthquake detection magnitude values is fundamental for the optimal location of new stations and to select the priority for reactivating the stations of a seismic network in case of a breakdown. In general, the assessment of earthquake detection is performed by analysing seismic noise with spectral or more sophisticated methods. Further, to simulate amplitude values at the recording sites, spectral methods require knowledge of several geophysical parameters including rock density, S- wave velocity, corner frequency, quality factor, site specific decay parameter and so on, as well as a velocity model for the Earth's interior. The simulation results are generally expressed in terms of M w and therefore a further conversion must be done to obtain the values of local magnitude (M L), which is the parameter commonly used for moderate and small earthquakes in seismic catalogues. Here, the relationship utilized by a seismic network to determine M L is directly applied to obtain the expected amplitude [in mm, as if it were recorded by a Wood–Anderson (WA) seismometer] at the recording site, without any additional assumptions. The station detection estimates are obtained by simply considering the ratio of the expected amplitude with respect to the background noise, also measured in mm. The seismic noise level for the station is estimated starting from four waveforms (each signal lasting 1 min) sampled at various times of the day for a period of one week. The proposed method is tested on Italian seismic events occurring in 2019 by using the locations of 16.879 earthquakes recorded by 374 stations. The first results indicate that by evaluating the station noise level with 5-s windows, a representative sample of the variability in expected noise level is generated for every station, even if only 4 min of signal per day over a week of recordings is used. The method was applied to define the detection level of the Italian National Seismic Network (RSN). The RSN detection level represents a reference for the definition and application of guidelines in the field of monitoring of subsurface industrial activities in Italy. The proposed approach can be successfully applied to define the current performance of a local seismic network (managed by private companies) and to estimate the expected further improvements, requested to fulfil the guidelines with the installation of new seismic stations. This method has been tested in Italy and can be reproduced wherever the local magnitude M L, based on synthetic WA records, is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: We derived new, reversible relationships between macroseismic intensity (I), expressed in either the European Macroseismic (EMS-98) or the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scales and peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and the spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.3, 1.0 and 3.0 s [SA(0.3), SA(1.0) and SA(3.0)] for Italy. We adopted the orthogonal distance regression technique to fit a quadratic function. This research aims to improve ground motion and intensity estimates for earthquake hazard applications, and for the calculation of shakemaps in Italy. To this end, the recently published INGe data set was used (https://doi.org/10.13127/inge.2). The new relations are: where PGA and SAs are expressed in cm s−2 and PGV is expressed in cm s−1. Tests performed to assess the robustness and the accuracy of the results demonstrate that adoption of quadratic relationships for this regression problem is a suitable choice within the range of values of the available data set. Comparison with similar published regressions for Italy evidences that the proposed relations provide statistically significant improved fits to the data. The new relations are also tested by inserting them in the ShakeMap system of the Italian configuration evidencing a significant improvement when compared to those implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With seismic catalogues becoming progressively larger, extracting information becomes challenging and calls upon using sophisticated statistical analysis. Data are typically clustered by machine learning algorithms to find patterns or identify regions of interest that require further exploration. Here, we investigate two density-based clustering algorithms, DBSCAN and OPTICS, for their capability to analyse the spatial distribution of seismicity and their effectiveness in discovering highly active seismic volumes of arbitrary shapes in large data sets. In particular, we study the influence of varying input parameters on the cluster solutions. By exploring the parameter space, we identify a crossover region with optimal solutions in between two phases with opposite behaviours (i.e. only clustered and only unclustered data points). Using a synthetic case with various geometric structures, we find that solutions in the crossover region consistently have the largest clusters and best represent the individual structures. For identifying strong anisotropic structures, we illustrate the usefulness of data rescaling. Applying the clustering algorithms to seismic catalogues of recent earthquake sequences (2016 Central Italy and 2016 Kumamoto) confirms that cluster solutions in the crossover region are the best candidates to identify 3-D features of tectonic structures that were activated in a seismic sequence. Finally, we propose a list of recipes that generalizes our analyses to obtain such solutions for other seismic sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in theoretical descriptions of seismicity in terms of statistical physics. Most aspects of these studies are encompassed by the concept of 'intermittent criticality', in which a region alternately approaches and retreats from a critical point. In this study, we analyse a descriptor of seismic activity that acts as a measure of the criticality of a system, such that its variations can be associated with changes in the state of the system. As some classical methods of analysis are not suitable for dealing with some of the features of complex systems such as the Earth's crust, we derive the probability distribution of the magnitude by maximizing a non-extensive generalization of the Boltzmann–Gibbs entropy given by the Tsallis entropy. In particular, the shape parameter q of this distribution, called the entropic index, characterizes the subadditive q > 1 and superadditive q < 1 regimes. Following the Bayesian approach for parameter estimation, we examine the seismic activity that has affected two seismogenic areas in central Italy that were hit recently by destructive earthquakes: L'Aquila in 2009, and Amatrice–Norcia in 2016. To analyse in detail the variations of the q index and the entropy, we estimate these for time windows of a fixed number of events that shift at each new event. Both the q index and the Tsallis entropy show significant and lasting decreases before the first strong earthquake in the sequences, and sudden increases after them. This indicates that these quantities can be considered as indicators of the level of concentration of energy, and hence of the activation state of the systems. More reliable results need to come from further studies of different cases in different seismotectonic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-rate global navigation satellite system (GNSS) has emerged as an effective method to recover seismic waveforms without saturation and drifts, but it has the limitation of relatively lower sampling rate and higher noise level compared to seismic instruments. In this study, we present a new seismogeodetic method by integrating GNSS and accelerometer data to obtain optimal real-time seismic waveforms. Unlike traditional integration methods based on GNSS techniques of relative positioning or precise point positioning, the new method uses a GNSS time difference technique and inherits its unique advantage in real-time and high-accuracy velocity solutions. Furthermore, by incorporating the tightly coupled structure, it can overcome the cascading problem and provide more accurate and robust waveforms compared to its loosely coupled counterpart. The performance of this method is first compared with the traditional loosely coupled approach in challenging environments through a set of shake table experiments. With three GNSS satellites, this approach method can improve the accuracy of velocities and displacements by 42 and 87 per cent, respectively. With four or more GNSS satellites, the average improvements of the method reach 25 and 41 per cent for the velocities and displacements, respectively. We then validate the full performances of the method through simulated shake table experiments and collocated GNSS and accelerometer data during the 2016 M w 6.6 central Italy earthquake. The simulated and real-event analyses demonstrate that the new integration method can take full advantage of the complementary characteristics of GNSS and accelerometer sensors. By providing more accurate and broad-band velocity and displacement waveforms in a real-time or near-real-time manner, this method is quite promising in earthquake early warning and rapid source inversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent work, we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0 ≤  M w < 5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (M w ≥ 5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space–time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter fraction in two ways (i) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 yr) and (ii) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70 per cent of all shocks with M w ≥ 5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space–time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2 per cent. Considering the same space–time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40 per cent of the first main shocks with M w ≥ 5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The preparation, initiation and occurrence dynamics of earthquakes in Italy are governed by several frequently unknown physical mechanisms and parameters. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for developing new techniques and approaches for earthquake monitoring and hazard assessments. Here, we develop a first-order numerical model simulating quasi-static crustal interseismic loading, coseismic brittle episodic dislocation and post-seismic relaxation for extensional and compressional earthquakes in Italy based on a common framework of lithostatic and tectonic forces. Our model includes an upper crust, where the fault is locked, and a deep crust, where the fault experiences steady shear. The results indicate that during the interseismic phase, the contrasting behaviour between the upper locked fault segment and lower creeping fault segment generates a stretched volume at depth in the hangingwall via extensional tectonics while a contracted volume forms via compressional tectonics. The interseismic stress and strain gradients invert at the coseismic stage, with the interseismic dilated volume contracting during the coseismic stage, and vice versa. Moreover, interseismic stress gradients promote coseismic gravitational subsidence of the hangingwall for normal fault earthquakes and elastic uplift for reverse fault earthquakes. Finally, the post-seismic relaxation is characterized by further ground subsidence and uplift for normal and reverse faulting earthquakes, respectively, which is consistent with the faulting style. The fault is the passive feature, with slipping generating the seismic waves, whereas the energy activating the movement is stored mostly in the hangingwall volume. The main source of energy for normal faulting and thrust is provided by the lithostatic load and elastic load, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2016–2017 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first main shock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (M w 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (M w 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (M w 6.5), plus a cluster of four events with M w > 5.0 within few hours on 18 January 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450 000 events in the year following the first main shock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P - and 10 million S -wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1-D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (M L). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as 'RefCat'). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hr on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84 401 to 450 000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from M L 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a M L = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ±0.9 km in epicentral location and ±1.5 km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b -value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The M w 6.0 earthquake that hit central Italy on 2016 August 24 caused an abnormally high level of destruction in the town of Amatrice. In order to clarify the role of site response in causing such a disaster, a series of ambient noise recordings acquired in the aftermath of the event are analysed here to identify site resonance properties from the ratios H/V between horizontal and vertical amplitudes of ground motion. Although the noise data acquisition was limited by the emergency management activities, the use of a new analysis technique, which isolates the contribution of Rayleigh waves to the noise wavefield and averages instantaneous estimates of H/V ratios, provided more stable results compared to the standard Nakamura's technique based on mean spectral ratios. The results demonstrated the occurrence of significant resonance phenomena, but without an obvious correlation with the spatial distribution of damage severity. It is apparent that the damage severity was also influenced by some additional local factors related to building vulnerability. Moreover, the time-series analysis revealed seasonal variations in the Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves likely related to the water content changes in the surface deposits and their influence on the Poisson coefficient. Finally, the new method proved capable of recognizing time-varying directions of Rayleigh wave propagation. This capability could be exploited to support other passive seismic methods (e.g. ReMi), whose results' reliability is limited by the lack of control on wave direction origin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classical procedure of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) requires a Poissonian distribution of earthquakes. Seismic catalogues follow a Poisson distribution just after the application of a declustering algorithm that leaves only one earthquake for each seismic sequence (usually the stronger, i.e. the main shock). Removing earthquakes from the seismic catalogues leads to underestimation of the annual rates of the events and consequently associate with low seismic hazard as indicated by several studies. In this study, we aim investigating the performance of two declustering methods on the Italian instrumental catalogue and the impact of declustering on estimation of the b- value and on the seismic hazard analysis. To this end, first the spatial variation in the seismicity rate was estimated from the declustered catalogues using the adaptive smoothed seismicity approach, considering small earthquakes (M w ≥ 3.0). We then corrected the seismicity rates using new approach that allows for counting all events in the complete seismic catalogue by simply changing the magnitude frequency distribution. The impact of declustering on seismic hazard analysis is illustrated using PSHA maps in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration in 2 s, with 10 per cent and 2 per cent probability of exceedance in 50 yr, for Italy. We observed that the hazard calculated from the declustered catalogues was always lower than the hazard computed using the complete catalogue. These results are in agreement with previous results obtained in different parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rockfall (RF) is a ubiquitous geohazard that is difficult to monitor or predict and poses a significant risk for people and transportation in several hilly and mountainous environments. The seismic signal generated by RF carries abundant physical and mechanical information. Thus, signals can be used by researchers to reconstruct the event location, onset time, volume and trajectory, and develop an efficient early warning system. Therefore, the precise automatic detection and classification of RF events are important objectives for scientists, especially in seismic monitoring arrays. An algorithm called DESTRO (DEtection and STorage of ROckfalls) aimed at combining seismic event automatic detection and classification was implemented ad hoc within the MATLAB environment. In event detection, the STA/LTA (short-time-average through long-time-average) method combined with other parameters, such as the minimum duration of an RF and the minimum interval time between two continuous seismic events is used. Furthermore, nine significant features based on the frequency, amplitude, seismic waveform, duration and multiple station attributes are newly proposed to classify seismic events in a RF environment. In particular, a three-step classification method is proposed for the discrimination of five different source types: RFs, earthquakes (EQs), tremors, multispike events (MSs) and subordinate MS events. Each component (vertical, east–west and north–south) at each station within the monitoring network is analysed, and a three-step classification is performed. At a given time, the event series detected from each component are integrated and reclassified component by component and station by station into a final event-type series as an output result. By this algorithm, a case study of the seven-month-long seismic monitoring of a former quarry in Central Italy was investigated by means of four triaxial velocimeters with continuous acquisition at a sampling rate of 200 Hz. During this monitoring period, a human-induced RF simulation was performed, releasing 95 blocks (in which 90 blocks validated) of different sizes from the benches of the quarry. Consequently, 64.9 per cent of EQs within 100 km were confirmed in a one-month monitoring period, 88 blocks in the RF simulation were classified correctly as RF events and 2 blocks were classified as MSs given their small energy. Finally, an ad hoc section of the algorithm was designed specifically for RF classification combined with EQ recognition. The algorithm could be applied in slope seismic monitoring to monitor the dynamic states of rock masses, as well as in slope instability forecasting and risk evaluation in EQ-prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To evaluate the site response using both empirical approaches (e.g. standard spectral ratio, ground motion models (GMMs), generalized inversion techniques, etc.) and numerical 1-D/2-D analyses, the definition of the reference motion, that is the ground motion recorded at stations unaffected by site-effects due to topographic, stratigraphic or basin effects, is needed. The main objective of this work is to define a robust strategy to identify the seismic stations that can be considered as reference rock sites, using six proxies for the site response: three proxies are related to the analysis of geophysical and seismological data (the repeatable site term from the residual analysis, the resonance frequencies from horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios on noise or earthquake signals, the average shear wave velocity in the first 30 m); the remaining ones concern geomorphological and installation features (outcropping rocks or stiff soils, flat topography and absence of interaction with structures). We introduce a weighting scheme to take into account the availability and the quality of the site information, as well as the fulfillment of the criterion associated to each proxy. We also introduce a hierarchical index, to take into account the relevance of the proposed proxies in the description of the site effects, and an acceptance threshold for reference rock sites identification. The procedure is applied on a very large data set, composed by accelerometric and velocimetric waveforms, recorded in Central Italy in the period 2008–2018. This data set is composed by more than 30 000 waveforms relative to 450 earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.2–6.5 and recorded by more than 450 stations. A total of 36 out of 133 candidate stations are identified as reference sites: the majority of them are installed on rock with flat topography, but this condition is not sufficient to guarantee the absence of amplifications, especially at high frequencies. Seismological analyses are necessary to exclude stations affected by resonances. We test the impact of using these sites by calibrating a GMMs. The results show that for reference rock sites the median predictions are reduced down to about 45 per cent at short periods in comparison to the generic rock motions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based technique to predict intensity measurements (IMs) of earthquake ground shaking. The input data to the CNN model consists of multistation, 3C acceleration waveforms recorded during the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence for M  ≥ 3.0 events. Using a 10 s window starting at the earthquake origin time, we find that the CNN is capable of accurately predicting IMs at stations far from the epicentre which have not yet recorded the maximum ground shaking. The CNN IM predictions do not require previous knowledge of the earthquake source (location and magnitude). Comparison between the CNN model predictions and those obtained with the Bindi et al. GMPE (which requires location and magnitude) shows that the CNN model features similar error variance but smaller bias. Although the technique is not strictly designed for earthquake early warning, we find that it can provide useful estimates of ground motions within 15–20 s after earthquake origin time depending on various setup elements (e.g. times for data transmission, computation, latencies). The technique has been tested on raw data without any initial data pre-selection in order to closely replicate real-time data streaming. When noise examples were included with the earthquake data the CNN was found to be stable, accurately predicting the ground shaking intensity corresponding to the noise amplitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the temporal changes of crustal velocity associated to the seismic sequence of 2016–2017, which struck central Italy with a series of moderate to large earthquakes. We cross-correlate continuous recordings of 2 yr of ambient seismic noise from a network of 28 stations within a radius of 90 km around Amatrice town. We then map the spatio-temporal evolution of the velocity perturbations under the effect of subsequent earthquakes. Coinciding with each of the three main shocks of the sequence we observe a sudden drop of seismic velocity which tends to quickly recover in the short term. After the end of the strongest activity of the sequence, the coseismic velocity changes display gradual healing towards pre-earthquake conditions following a quasi-linear trend, such that by the end of 2017 about 75 per cent of the perturbation is recovered. The spatial distribution of the velocity drop fluctuates with time, and the area that shows the most intense variations beyond the ruptured fault system elongates in the NE direction. This zone roughly corresponds to a region of foredeep sedimentary deposits consisting of highly hydrated and porous sandstones, which respond to the passage of seismic waves with increased pore pressure and crack number, leading to a reduction of the effective relative velocity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is a procedure aimed at informing communities on how seismic hazard changes with time. This can help them live with seismicity and mitigate risk of destructive earthquakes. A successful short-term prediction scheme is not yet produced, but the search for it should not be abandoned. This requires more research on seismogenetic processes and, specifically, inclusion of any information about earthquakes in models, to improve forecast of future events, at any spatio-temporal-magnitude scale. The short- and long-term forecast perspectives of earthquake occurrence followed, up to now, separate paths, involving different data and peculiar models. But actually they are not so different and have common features, being parts of the same physical process. Research on earthquake predictability can help to search for a common path in different forecast perspectives. This study aims to improve the modelling of long-term features of seismicity inside the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, largely used for short-term forecast and OEF procedures. Specifically, a more comprehensive estimation of background seismicity rate inside the ETAS model is attempted, by merging different types of data (seismological instrumental, historical, geological), such that information on faults and on long-term seismicity integrates instrumental data, on which the ETAS models are generally set up. The main finding is that long-term historical seismicity and geological fault data improve the pseudo-prospective forecasts of independent seismicity. The study is divided in three parts. The first consists in models formulation and parameter estimation on recent seismicity of Italy. Specifically, two versions of ETAS model are compared: a 'standard', previously published, formulation, only based on instrumental seismicity, and a new version, integrating different types of data for background seismicity estimation. Secondly, a pseudo-prospective test is performed on independent seismicity, both to test the reliability of formulated models and to compare them, in order to identify the best version. Finally, a prospective forecast is made, to point out differences and similarities in predicting future seismicity between two models. This study must be considered in the context of its limitations; anyway, it proves, beyond argument, the usefulness of a more sophisticated estimation of background rate, inside short-term modelling of earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The active tectonic processes in convergent margins confer a high degree of complexity to the crust. Determining the thermal structure is, therefore, key to better elucidate the nature of those processes. In order to reconstruct the thermal structure of the crust beneath the Italian peninsula, we combine the most recent and accurate shear-wave velocity model that is currently available with thermodynamic modelling, assuming a global average crustal composition with no lateral variations. Our model, presented in terms of Moho temperature and crustal thermal gradients, shows a very good agreement with the known thermal anomalies associated with the backarc spreading related to the Apennine subduction. Importantly, we envisage a new anomalous region of high Moho temperatures in NW Italy (T > 800 °C at 30 km), at the transition between the Alps and Apennine orogens. The lowest temperatures of our model, corresponding to geothermal gradients <19 °C km−1, are obtained in the still active but slow-convergent portion of the northern Apennine. Moho temperatures increase moving southwards along the Apennine chain, an observation that is coherent with the evidence of ceasing subduction and consequent rebalancing of the depressed isotherms along the slab. Our results suggest that a thermal structure in different tectonic settings can be inferred with acceptable uncertainties based on absolute seismic velocity models. In this sense, our approach can be extended to any other region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of earthquake sources is limited by the availability and the quality of observations and the fidelity of our physical models. Uncertainties in our physical models will naturally bias our inferences of subsurface fault slip. These uncertainties will always persist to some level as we will never have a perfect knowledge of the Earth's interior. The choice of the forward physics is thus ambiguous, with the frequent need to fix the value of several parameters such as crustal properties or fault geometry. Here, we explore the impact of uncertainties related to the choice of both fault geometry and elastic structure, as applied to the 2016  M w 6.2 Amatrice earthquake, central Italy. This event, well instrumented and characterized by a relatively simple fault morphology, allows us to explore the role of uncertainty in basic fault parameters, such as fault dip and position. We show that introducing uncertainties in fault geometry in a static inversion reduces the sensitivity of inferred models to different geometric assumptions. Accounting for uncertainties thus helps infer more realistic and robust slip models. We also show that uncertainties in fault geometry and Earth's elastic structure significantly impact estimated source models, particularly if near-fault observations are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amatrice–Norcia–Visso sequence is characterized by complex behaviour that is somewhat atypical of main-shock–aftershock sequences, as there were multiple large main shocks that continued for months. In this study we focus on the Amatrice sequence (main shock 2016 August 24, M w = 5.97) to evaluate the apparent stress values and magnitude-dependent scaling in order to improve our knowledge of processes that control small and large earthquakes within this active region of Italy. Apparent stress is proportional to the ratio of radiated seismic energy and seismic moment, and as such, these stress parameters play an important role in hazard prediction as they have a strong effect on the observed and predicted ground shaking. We analyse 83 events of the sequence from 2016 August 24 to October 16, within a radius of 20 km from the main shock and with an M w ranging between 5.97 and 2.72. Taking advantage of the averaging nature of coda waves, we analyse coda-envelope-based spectral ratios between neighbouring event pairs. We use equations proposed by Walter et al. to consider stable, low-frequency and high-frequency spectral ratio levels which provide measures of the corner frequency and apparent stress ratios of the events within the sequence. The results demonstrate non-self-similar behaviour within the sequence, suggesting a change in dynamics between the largest events and the smaller aftershocks. The apparent stress and corner frequency estimates are compared to those obtained by Malagnini and Munafò who utilized hundreds of direct S -wave spectral ratio measurements to obtain their results. Although our analysis is based only on 83 events, our results are in very good agreement, demonstrating once more that the use of coda waves is very stable and provides lower variance measures than those using direct waves. A comparison with recent Central Apennines source scaling models derived from various seismic sequences (1997–1998 Colfiorito, 2002 San Giuliano di Puglia, 2009 L'Aquila) shows that the Amatrice sequence source scaling in this study is well represented by the models proposed by Pacor et al. and Malagnini and Mayeda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade the use of passive methods has become appealing in reconstructing the properties of the propagation medium by seismic ambient noise data, without the use of localized natural or artificial sources. A temporary seismic network was installed in the urban area of Benevento (southern Italy) in order to characterize the shallow structure of the city using stable methods for the analysis of the seismic noise continuously acquired by stations. The city of Benevento is one of the italian areas with highest seismic hazard, and at present the region is affected by low energy swarms and sparse events (Ml ≤ 4.1). It has been struck by several destructive historical earthquakes, the strongest of which occurred in 1456, 1688, 1805 with associated MCS intensity up to X–XI. We used the sixteen seismic stations installed in Benevento to record ambient noise for about 1 month. The stations were equipped with different seismic instruments: (i) digitizers Quanterra Q330 connected to Le3d-5 s short-period sensors; (ii) Nanometrics Centaur digitizers coupled with Trillium Compact 120s broad-band velocimeters; (iii) one station with Episensor force balance accelerometer connected to a D6BB-DIN Staneo digitizer. Interstations Green's functions were reconstructed by the cross-correlation of continuous ambient noise data, and surface waves signals were extracted from Green's Functions (GFs) for investigating the elastic properties of the subsurface structure. In this regard, we performed the beamforming analysis to test the hypothesis of isotropy distribution of noise sources on which the cross-correlation method is based, and the particle motion analysis to confirm the presence of surface Rayleigh waves in the GFs. We analysed the temporal stability of the cross-correlated signals and the results show that 2 weeks of continuous measurements are sufficient to stabilize the surface waves signal extracted from the GFs. The phase velocity dispersion curves are computed for 115 station pairs through the use of a far-field representation of the surface-wave GFs and an image transformation technique. Our strategy based on cross-correlation analysis provides robust phase-velocity dispersion curves that vary approximately from 1.4 km s–1 at 0.7 Hz to 0.6 km s–1 at 5 Hz. Different pairs were selected for the inversion of phase-velocity dispersion curves aimed to derive 1-D shear-wave velocity (Vs) profiles (up to a maximum depth of about 500 m) representative of some areas of the city characterized by different soil deposits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a straightforward and rapid methodology is proposed and tested to determine the seismic moment, the earthquake rupture length/duration and the static stress drop. To this purpose, three ground motion parameters, that is, P -wave peak acceleration (⁠|${P_a}$|⁠), velocity (⁠|${P_v}$|⁠) and displacement (⁠|${P_d}$|⁠) are evaluated as a function of time from the first P arrival. The average of the logarithm of the P -wave amplitude (LPDT curves), corrected for the distance-attenuation effect, is calculated using all the available stations in expanded P -wave time windows. The LPDT curves show an exponential growth shape and increase with time until they reach a constant value (plateau), which is related to the magnitude of the earthquake. From the obtained observations, we demonstrate that the corner time of the plateau level on the weighted-fit curve to the LPDT curves is related to the half-duration of the rupture. Thus, using the theoretical scaling, the source radius and stress drop can be obtained from the measured half-duration of the source. This method has been applied and tested to the records of the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, with moment magnitude ranging between 3.4 and 6.5. Our study shows that source parameters match a self-similar, constant-stress-drop scaling with a relatively low average stress drop of about |$1.1 \pm 0.5\ \mathrm{ MPa}$|⁠, except for the largest event of the sequence showing a relatively higher stress release, which is associated with the dominant radiation from a localized high slip patch on the fracture surface. The proposed approach based on a simple time domain signal analysis is innovative and may complement longer spectral technique for fast estimating earthquake source properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extremely sharp magnetic reversal observed in lacustrine sediments in central Italy has been interpreted as a record of the Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic polarity reversal that may represent less than a decade. Here, we report new results from the same Sulmona Basin outcrops that question this interpretation. In particular, we find evidence of reversed (Matuyama) directions well above the proposed Matuyama-Brunhes Boundary (MBB). Coercivity spectra of anhysteretic remanent magnetization imply a three-component magnetic mineralogy: low-, intermediate- and high-coercivity. The low-coercivity component is found in all but one of the samples and carries a strong modern overprint seen throughout the section. The high-coercivity component is dominated by volcanic material which is prone to remagnetization. Since it is much more magnetic than the surrounding lacustrine sediments, it may influence the remanence signal even when present at very low concentrations. The intermediate-coercivity component is the main carrier of any true primary remanence, but whether or not this can be isolated depends on the blocking temperature and coercivity spectra of individual samples and on the demagnetization method used. The complexity of the magnetization, the reversed zones above the proposed MBB and the normal zones that Sagnotti and colleagues found below it lead to the conclusion that this section does not carry a reliable high-resolution record of the geomagnetic field. Thus, we feel that inferences about the stratigraphic position and duration of the MBB are premature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dense strong motion and high-rate Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) networks have been deployed in central Italy for rapid seismic source determination and corresponding hazard mitigation. Different from previous studies for the consistency between two kinds of sensor at collocated stations, here we focus on the combination of high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms with collocated seismic strong motion accelerators, and investigate its application to image rupture history. Taking the 2016 August 24 Mw 6.1 Central Italy earthquake as a case study, we first generate more accurate and longer period seismogeodetic displacement waveforms by a Kalman filter, then model the rupture behaviour through a joint inversion including seismogeodetic waveforms and InSAR observations. Our results reveal that strong motion data alone can overestimate the magnitude and mismatch the GNSS observations, while 1 Hz sampling rate GNSS is insufficient and the displacement is too noisy to depict rupture process. By contrast, seismogeodetic data enhances temporal resolution and maintains the static offsets that provide vital constraint to the reliable estimation of earthquake magnitude. The obtained model is close to the jointly inverted one. Our work demonstrates the unique usefulness of seismogeodesy for fast seismic hazard response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of a physics-based earthquake simulation algorithm to the Central Apennines, where the 2016-2017 seismic sequence occurred, allowed the compilation of a synthetic seismic catalogue lasting 100 kyr, and containing more than 500 000 M ≤ 4.0 events, without limitations in terms of completeness, homogeneity and time duration. This simulator is based on an algorithm constrained by several faulting and source parameters. The seismogenicmodel upon which we applied the simulator code, was derived from the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources including all the fault systems that are recognized in the Central Apennines. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which are comparable with the observations. These features include long-term periodicity and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution. The statistical distribution of earthquakes withM≤6.0 on single faults exhibits a fairly clear pseudo-periodic behaviour, with a coefficient of variation Cv of the order of 0.4-0.8.We found in our synthetic catalogue a clear trend of long-term acceleration of seismic activity preceding M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes and quiescence following those earthquakes. Lastly, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogues, an attenuation law was applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalogue for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of peak acceleration in the investigated territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macroseismic intensity is assessed on the basis of the effects caused by an earthquake. These effects reflect the expression of both the intensity and frequency of the ground motion, thus complicating prediction equation modelling. Here we analysed data of several macroseismic transitory effects caused by recent Italian earthquakes in order to study their attenuation as a function of magnitude and hypocentral distance and to obtain a specific prediction equation, of simple functional form, that could be applied to each of the effects under analysis. We found that the different attenuation behaviours could be clearly defined by the values of the specially formulated magnitude-distance scaling ratio (S), thus allowing to group the effects on the basis of the S value. The oscillation of hanging objects and liquids, together with the feeling of dizziness, were separated from most other variables, such as the effects of the earthquake on small objects, china and windows, which were caused by a vibration of higher frequency. Besides, the greater value of S, associated with the perception of the seismic sound, explained the peculiarity of this phenomenon. As a result, we recognized the frequency range associated with each effect through comparisons with the ground motion prediction equations and, in particular, with the 5 per cent damped horizontal response spectra. Here we show the importance of appropriately selecting the diagnostic elements to be used for intensity assessment in order to improve the correlation with ground motion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three 2-D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) transects, up to 6.36 km long, were obtained across the Paganica-San Demetrio Basin, bounded by the 2009 L'Aquila Mw 6.1 normal-faulting earthquake causative fault (central Italy). The investigations allowed defining for the first time the shallow subsurface basin structure. The resistivity images, and their geological interpretation, showa dissected Mesozoic-Tertiary substratum buried under continental infill of mainly Quaternary age due to the long-term activity of the Paganica-San Demetrio normal faults system (PSDFS), ruling the most recent deformational phase. Our results indicate that the basin bottom deepens up to 600 m moving to the south, with the continental infill largely exceeding the known thickness of the Quaternary sequence. The causes of this increasing thickness can be: (1) the onset of the continental deposition in the southern sector took place before the Quaternary, (2) there was an early stage of the basin development driven by different fault systems that produced a depocentre in the southern sector not related to the present-day basin shape, or (3) the fault system slip rate in the southern sector was faster than in the northern sector. We were able to gain sights into the long-term PSDFS behaviour and evolution, by comparing throw rates at different timescales and discriminating the splays that lead deformation. Some fault splays exhibit large cumulative throws (>300 m) in coincidence with large displacement of the continental deposits sequence (>100 m), thus testifying a general persistence in time of their activity as leading splays of the fault system. We evaluate the long-term (3-2.5Myr) cumulative and Quaternary throw rates of most of the leading splays to be 0.08-0.17 mm yr-1, indicating a substantial stability of the faults activity. Among them, an individual leading fault splay extends from Paganica to San Demetrio ne' Vestini as a result of a post-Early Pleistocene linkage of two smaller splays. This 15 km long fault splay can explain the Holocene surface ruptures observed to be larger than those occurred during the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, such as revealed by palaeoseismological investigations. Finally, the architecture of the basin at depth suggests that the PSDFS can also rupture a longer structure at the surface, allowing earthquakes larger than M 6.5, besides rupturing only small sections, as it occurred in 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed a catalogue of Italian earthquakes, covering 55 yr of data from 1960 to 2014 with magnitudes homogeneously converted to Mw, to compute the time-dependent relative frequencies with which strong seismic shocks (4.0 =Mw < 5.0), widely felt by the population, have been followed by main shocks (Mw = 5.0) that threatened the health and the properties of the persons living in the epicentral area. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies are estimates of the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. We compared them with the time-independent relative frequencies of random occurrence in terms of the frequency gain that is the ratio between the time-dependent and time-independent relative frequencies. The time-dependent relative frequencies vary from less than 1 per cent to about 20 per cent, depending on the magnitudes of the shocks and the time windows considered (ranging from minutes to years). They remain almost constant for a few hours after the strong shock and then decrease with time logarithmically. Strong earthquakes (with Mw = 6.0) mainly occurred within two or three months of the strong shock. The frequency gains vary from about 10 000 for very short time intervals to less than 10 for a time interval of 2 yr. Only about 1/3 of main shocks were preceded by at least a strong shock in the previous day and about 1/2 in the previous month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mud volcanoes are geological systems often characterized by elevated fluid pressures at depth deviating from hydrostatic conditions. This near-critical state makes mud volcanoes particularly sensitive to external forcing induced by natural or man-made perturbations. We used the Nirano mud volcanic field as a natural laboratory to test pre- and post-seismic effects generated by distant earthquakes. We first characterized the subsurface structure of the Nirano mud volcanic field with a geoelectrical study. Next, we deployed a broad-band seismic station in the area to understand the typical seismic signal generated by the mud volcano. Seismic records show a background noise below 2 s, sometimes interrupted by pulses of drumbeatlike high-frequency signals lasting from several minutes to hours. To date this is the first observation of drumbeat signal observed in mud volcanoes. In 2013 June we recorded a M4.7 earthquake, that occurred approximately 60 km far from our seismic station. According to empirical estimations the Nirano mud volcanic field should not have been affected by the M4.7 earthquake. Yet, before the seismic event we recorded an increasing amplitude of the signal in the 10-20 Hz frequency band. The signal emerged approximately two hours before the earthquake and lasted for about three hours. Our statistical analysis suggests the presence of a possible precursory signal about 10 min before the earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sulmona plain (central Italy) is an intramontane basin of the Abruzzi Apennines that is known in the literature for its high seismic hazard. We use extensive measurements of ambient noise to map the fundamental frequency and to detect the presence of geological heterogeneities in the basin. We perform noise measurements along two basin-scale orthogonal transects, in conjunction with 2-D array experiments in specific key areas. The key areas are located in different positions with respect to the basin margins: one at the eastern boundary (fault-controlled basin margin) and one in the deepest part of the basin. We also collect independent data by using active seismic experiments (MASW), down-hole and geological surveys to characterize the near-surface geology of the investigated sites. In detail, the H/V noise spectral ratios and 2-D array techniques indicate a fundamental resonance (f0) in the low-frequency range (0.35-0.4 Hz) in the Sulmona Basin. Additionally, our results highlight the important role that is played by the alluvial fans near the edge-sectors of the basin, which are responsible for a velocity inversion in the uppermost layering of the soil profile. The H/V ratios and the dispersion curves of adjacent measurements strongly vary over a few dozens of meters in the alluvial fan area. Furthermore, we perform 1-D numerical simulations that are based on a linear-equivalent approach to estimate the site response in the key areas, using realistic seismic inputs. Finally, we perform a 2-D simulation that is based on the spectral element method to propagate surface waves in a simple model with an uppermost stiff layer, which is responsible for the velocity inversion. The results from the 2-D modelling agree with the experimental curves, showing deamplified H/V curves and typical shapes of dispersion curves of a not normally dispersive site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We perform a systematic investigation of along-strike rupture directivity of 70 earthquakes (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.1) of the 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence by analysing azimuthal variations of broad-band seismograms recorded in the distance range 60 km < R < 230 km. We use reference spectra of events with little directivity (similar to the empirical Green's function method) to deconvolve propagation-site effects and focus on source properties. A directivity index (0 ≤ IDIR ≤ 1) calculated for each earthquake quantifies the spectral separation above the corner frequency of the target event at opposite along-strike directions. A large number (73 per cent) of events including the Mw 6.1 main shock showhigh (>0.7) IDIR values indicating predominantly unilateral rupture propagation. The preferred rupture propagation direction is generally to the southeast with no dependence on the earthquake magnitude or occurrence time. Events on two main faults (L'Aquila and Campotosto) show somewhat different behaviour. Almost all earthquakes on the L'Aquila fault have strong unilateral directivity to the southeast, whereas earthquakes on the Campotosto fault show more diverse behaviour. However, there is a predominance of unilateral ruptures (14 out of 22) also on the Campotosto fault, and the few (five) earthquakes with ruptures to the northwest are limited to the most northwestern segment of the fault. The spectral results are consistent with time-domain analysis when the latter samples adequately the frequency band above corner frequency. The preferred rupture direction may be produced at least in part by a velocity contrast across the fault. The results provide important input for estimates of seismic motion and physics of earthquake ruptures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]