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The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF), and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend.

Extreme large-scale North American cold events are associated with strong undulations in the tropospheric jet stream which bring cold polar air southward over the continent. Here we propose that th ...

[1] The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex and major, mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is evaluated using a meteorological reanalysis dataset. The MJO influences the region in the tropospheric North Pacific sector that is most strongly associated with a SSW. Consistent with this, SSWs in the reanalysis record have tended to follow certain MJO phases. The magnitude of the influence of the MJO on the vortex is comparable to that associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Nino. The MJO could be used to improve intra-seasonal projections of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude circulation, and in particular of the tropospheric Northern Annular Mode, at lags exceeding one month.

[1] One of the most prominent and important features of climate change is that surface air temperature (SAT) change is greatest at high latitudes. The cause for this Arctic amplification of SAT is uncertain. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data, we show that Arctic amplification during the past 30 years (1979 to 2008) is linked to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the primary mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Specifically, it is shown that interdecadal changes in the frequency of occurrence of individual MJO phases have had considerable influence on the Arctic warming during the boreal winter. During that time period, MJO phases 4–6 exhibited a large increase and phases 1–2 a moderate decrease in their frequency of occurrence. Time lagged composites of the SAT show that MJO phases 4–6, which correspond to enhanced localized tropical heating, are followed 1–2 weeks later by Arctic warming. Similarly, MJO phases 1–2, which are associated with more zonally uniform tropical heating, are followed by Arctic cooling. These relationships between the Arctic SAT and the spatial structure of the tropical heating are consistent with the poleward propagation mechanism of Lee et al. (2011a, 2011b). By incorporating both the trend in MJO phase and the intraseasonal SAT anomaly associated with the MJO, it was found that the MJO-induced SAT trend accounts for 10–20% of the observed Arctic amplification over the Arctic Ocean.