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This research examines the integration of geological and hydrogeological data in numerical aquifer model simulations, with a particular focus on the urban area of Torino, Italy. The role of groundwater resources in urban sustainability is analysed. The objective is to integrate open-loop geothermal plants into the district heating network of IREN S.p.A. Two case studies are examined: the Torino Nord area and the Moncalieri area, both of which host district heating plants. The work entails the collection and analysis of data from a variety of sources, including geognostic surveys and permeability tests, in order to construct a three-dimensional numerical model of the surface aquifer. Models were built using the public MODFLOW 6 (model of groundwater flow) code and calibrated using PESTHP (High Performance of Model Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis). Results indicate the potential of urban aquifers as renewable energy sources and the necessity of comprehensive geological and hydrogeological assessments for optimal ground water heat pump (GWHP) system installation. This paper emphasises the significance of sustainable water management in the context of climate change and urbanisation challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chiusella Valley (NW Italian Alps) is a key area for both the history of the alpine orogeny and its environmental context. It presents major structural features (including the Traversella neoalpine intrusion and a section of the Insubric line) and evidence of past climate changes in the region. Even if the Chiusella Valley was previously renowned for mining activities and most recently considered an alpine rural area with minor tourist attractions, its important geoheritage could offer alternatives to traditional mountain activities, which are facing adversity from increasing temperatures. This paper emphasises the role of geotourism in both enhancing sustainable development and raising awareness of climate change. For this purpose, the geodiversity of the Chiusella Valley has been analysed and several geosites have been identified. The research methodology includes field surveys, analysis of an existing educational activities and scientific literature, and assessment of geosites by quantitative analysis of five groups of indicators, including scientific, cultural, and educational values. The geosite selection within the Chiusella Valley reveals memories of past and present climate changes but also supports the development of targeted geotourism activities in the area. Additionally, a specific location has been identified for hosting indoor activities showcasing climate change action. These valuable contributions to sustainable geotourism provide opportunities for exploring the Alps in the vicinity of the Po Plain urban areas, while minimizing the environmental impact and facilitating educational activities on geodiversity and geoheritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been several incidences of flood recently, which are believed to be aggravated by increased climatic variables as a result of perceived changes in climatic conditions (due to climate change) in the Cross River Basin. The basin is the most extensively developed and used river basin in the management of the water resources of the Cross River and Akwa Ibom States in Nigeria. In this paper, 30 years (from 1992 to 2021) of hydro-meteorological data (annual average rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, hu midity, duration of sunlight (sunshine hours), evaporation, wind speed, soil temperature, cloud cover, solar radiation, and atmospheric pressure) from four stations in the Cross River Basin were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Abuja and subjected to trend detection analysis using the Mann–Kendall test to determine the trend in climatic parameters. The results indicate that there is a significant upward trend in annual rainfall in Ogoja but a downward trend in Calabar. The evaporation trend is significantly downward in Eket, whereas in Calabar, there is an upward trend in solar radiation. Generally, there is a significant rise in annual maximum temperature across the basin. Serial correlation and segmented regression analyses were performed to measure the impact of fluctuations in monthly and long-term Tahiti and Darwin's Sea level pressures on the climatic variables at the Cross River Basin catchment. These analyses were necessary to determine the extent of the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation climatic cycle. The analyses show no significant association between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rainfall or between the ENSO and runoff in the catchment. This implies that the impact of the ENSO on rainfall and runoff in the Cross River Basin catchment is not considerable. The intercepts derived from the segmented regression in Eket and Ogoja show significant positive trends in both areas for rainfall and runoff. The trends in intercepts suggest that there are external factors influencing rainfall and runoff other than ENSO events, thus strengthening the assertion of climate change. Results from this study will facilitate the understanding of the variability in climatic parameters by stakeholders in the basin, researchers, policymakers, and water resource managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geosites are windows into the geological past, which may be recorded in rocks and their properties, the fossil content, and landform produced by processes no longer operating. Since the histories of sedimentation, life, and landscape evolution are to a certain extent controlled by climatic conditions, some geosites may be used as illustrations of various themes linked to the issue of climate change. In this paper, a coherent systematic framework is proposed for how to look at geosites through the lens of climate change. Four major aspects of relevance are recognized: (i) geosites providing evidence of changing climatic conditions in the past; (ii) geosites providing evidence of an environment different than that of today at the place; (iii) geosites providing evidence of extreme weather events; and (iv) dynamic geosites, subject to change as a response to ongoing climate change. The use of geosites to raise awareness and educate the public about climate change faces various interpretation challenges. In particular, linking with ongoing climate change requires caution and balanced presentation as most geosites record changes which occurred without any anthropogenic component. The preferred focus should be on environmental instability in general rather than on any specific reasons for change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural heritage is one of the most exceptional resources characterizing the Italian territory. Archaeological heritage, i.e., the archaeological sites with different types of archaeological artifacts, strongly contributes to enriching the national and international cultural heritage. Nevertheless, it is constantly exposed to external factors, such as natural deterioration, anthropic impact, and climate-related hazards, which may compromise its conservation. In Italy, many archaeological areas are affected by significant soil settlements that involve a large part of monuments. This paper focuses on the landslide hazard assessment of the archaeological site of Pietrabbondante (Molise region, Italy). The impact of the expected rainfall regimes, according to the EURO-CORDEX projections, on slope stability conditions were evaluated through the application of a physically based model that couples a hydraulic and a mechanical model to evaluate slope stability evolution due to pore pressure changes. Given the unavoidable lack of knowledge of the geotechnical soil properties in an archaeological heritage area, the proposed method considered the random uncertainty of soil parameters by means of a probabilistic approach in order to assess the stability conditions in terms of probability of occurrence of a landslide. The results of this study provide a reference for the safety assessment and preventive conservation of archaeological areas characterized by high cultural value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in the concentration of geological gas emissions in the atmosphere and particularly the increase of methane is considered by the majority of the scientific community as the main cause of global climate change. The main reasons that place methane at the center of interest, lie in its high global warming potential (GWP) and its lifetime in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic processes, like engineering geology ones, highly affect the daily profile of gasses in the atmosphere. Should direct measures be taken to reduce emissions of methane, immediate global warming mitigation could be achieved. Due to its significance, methane has been monitored by many space missions over the years and as of 2017 by the Sentinel-5P mission. Considering the above, we conclude that monitoring and predicting future methane concentration based on past data is of vital importance for the course of climate change over the next decades. To that end, we introduce a method exploiting state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which have been proven particularly effective in regression problems, such as time-series forecasting. Aligned with the green artificial intelligence (AI) initiative, the paper at hand investigates the ability of different RNN architectures to predict future methane concentration in the most active regions of Texas, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, by using Sentinel-5P methane data and focusing on computational and complexity efficiency. We conduct several empirical studies and utilize the obtained results to conclude the most effective architecture for the specific use case, establishing a competitive prediction performance that reaches up to a 0.7578 mean squared error on the evaluation set. Yet, taking into consideration the overall efficiency of the investigated models, we conclude that the exploitation of RNN architectures with less number of layers and a restricted number of units, i.e., one recurrent layer with 8 neurons, is able to better compensate for competitive prediction performance, meanwhile sustaining lower computational complexity and execution time. Finally, we compare RNN models against deep neural networks along with the well-established support vector regression, clearly highlighting the supremacy of the recurrent ones, as well as discuss future extensions of the introduced work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid Arctic warming is expected to result in widespread permafrost degradation. However, observations show that site-specific conditions (vegetation and soils) may offset the reaction of permafrost to climate change. This paper summarizes 43 years of interannual seasonal thaw observations from tundra landscapes surrounding the Marre-Sale on the west coast of the Yamal Peninsula, northwest Siberia. This robust dataset includes landscape-specific climate, active layer thickness, soil moisture, and vegetation observations at multiple scales. Long-term trends from these hierarchically scaled observations indicate that drained landscapes exhibit the most pronounced responses to changing climatic conditions, while moist and wet tundra landscapes exhibit decreasing active layer thickness, and river floodplain landscapes do not show changes in the active layer. The slow increase in seasonal thaw depth despite significant warming observed over the last four decades on the Yamal Peninsula can be explained by thickening moss covers and ground surface subsidence as the transient layer (ice-rich upper permafrost soil horizon) thaws and compacts. The uneven proliferation of specific vegetation communities, primarily mosses, is significantly contributing to spatial variability observed in active layer dynamics. Based on these findings, we recommend that regional permafrost assessments employ a mean landscape-scale active layer thickness that weights the proportions of different landscape types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of links between satellite-measured vegetation vigor and climate variables in Armenian mountain grassland ecosystems in the years 1984–2018. NDVI is derived from MODIS and LANDSAT data, temperature and precipitation data are from meteorological stations. Two study sites were selected, representing arid and semi-arid grassland vegetation types, respectively. Various trend estimators including Mann–Kendall (MK) and derivatives were combined for vegetation change analysis at different time scales. Results suggest that temperature and precipitation had negative and positive impacts on vegetation growth, respectively, in both areas. NDVI-to-precipitation correlation was significant but with an apparent time-lag effect that was further investigated. No significant general changes were observed in vegetation along the observed period. Further comparisons between results from corrected and uncorrected data led us to conclude that MODIS and LANDSAT data with BRDF, topographic and atmospheric corrections applied are best suited for analyzing relationships between NDVI and climatic factors for the 2000–2018 period in grassland at a very local scale; however, in the absence of correction tools and information, uncorrected data can still provide meaningful results. Future refinements will include removal of anthropogenic impact, and deeper investigation of time-lag effects of climatic factors on vegetation dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in rainfall patterns, humidity, and temperature, as well as greater exposure to severe weather events, has led to the need for adapting cultural heritage to climate change. However, there is limited research accomplished to date on the process of adaptation of cultural heritage to climate change. This paper examines the perceptions of experts involved in the management and preservation of cultural heritage on adaptation to climate change risks. For this purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts from the UK, Italy, and Norway as well as a participatory workshop with stakeholders. The results indicate that the majority of interviewees believe that adaptation of cultural heritage to climate change is possible. Opportunities for, barriers to, and requirements for adapting cultural heritage to climate change, as perceived by the interviewees, provided a better understanding of what needs to be provided and prioritized for adaptation to take place and in its strategic planning. Knowledge of management methodologies incorporating climate change impacts by the interviewees together with best practice examples in adapting cultural heritage to climate change are also reported. Finally, the interviewees identified the determinant factors for the implementation of climate change adaptation. This paper highlights the need for more research on this topic and the identification and dissemination of practical solutions and tools for the incorporation of climate change adaptation in the preservation and management of cultural heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a wide spectrum of data, case studies, monitoring, and experimental and numerical simulation techniques, the multidisciplinary approach of material, environmental, and computer science applied to the conservation of cultural heritage offers several opportunities for the heritage science and conservation community to map and monitor the state of the art of the knowledge referring to natural and human-induced climate change impacts on cultural heritage—mainly constituted by the built environment—in Europe and Latin America. The special issue "Preservation of Cultural Heritage and Resources Threatened by Climate Change" of Geosciences—launched to take stock of the existing but still fragmentary knowledge on this challenge, and to enable the community to respond to the implementation of the Paris agreement—includes 10 research articles. These papers exploit a broad range of data derived from preventive conservation monitoring conducted indoors in museums, churches, historical buildings, or outdoors in archeological sites and city centers. Case studies presented in the papers focus on a well-assorted sample of decay phenomena occurring on heritage materials—e.g., surface recession and biomass accumulation on limestone, depositions of pollutant on marble, salt weathering on inorganic building materials, and weathering processes on mortars in many local- to regional-scale study areas in the Scandinavian Peninsula, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, Italy, Greece, and Panama. Besides monitoring, the methodological approaches that are showcased include, but are not limited to, original material characterization, decay product characterization, and climate and numerical modelling on material components for assessing environmental impact and climate change effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This editorial presents the papers published in the 2019 edition of this series of special issues in the context of the contribution of geological studies to the development of knowledge on the built environment (namely materials) and in the opposite sense, that is the potential contribution of studies of the Built Environment to geoscientific knowledge. This is discussed considering the major framework of the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work illustrates a semi-quantitative approach to evaluate changes in regional landslide distribution as a consequence of forecasted climate change, which can be adopted at other regions. We evaluated the relationship between climate conditions and landslide distribution at a regional scale. In this study, landslides on parts of the Battle, Red Deer, and Bow Rivers that are located within the Bearpaw Formation in Southern Alberta, Canada, were mapped, and their characteristics were compared. In order to find a relationship between the climate conditions and the mapped landslides, 30-year annual precipitation and other factors, such as slope aspect and geology, were compared between the river valleys. The results show that climatic conditions and the size and shape of the landslides are different in the Battle River area compared to the Red Deer and Bow Rivers regions. The weak Bearpaw overconsolidated shale and the bentonite layers throughout the region are sensitive to moisture and create favorable conditions for landslides in the river valleys. Further investigations into the long-term impact of climate on the formation of river valleys and the Bearpaw Formation support the argument that climate is one of the main factors in causing variations in landslide distribution across the study areas. These findings provide insight into possible changes in regional landslide distribution as a consequence of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are a range of local weather- and climate-related factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings, structures, and sites over time. Some of these factors are influenced by changes in climate and some of these changes manifest themselves through a speeding up of the rate of degradation. It is the intention of this paper to review this situation with special reference to the Nordic Countries, where typical trends resulting from climate change are shorter winters and increased precipitation all year round. An attempt is made to initially draw up a classification of materials and structures relevant to cultural heritage that are affected, with a proposed numeric scale for the urgency to act. The intention is to provide information on where best to concentrate cultural heritage site preservation resources in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will affect the preservation conditions of our cultural heritage. Therefore, well-considered mitigation actions should be implemented to safeguard our heritage for future generations. Environmental monitoring is essential to follow up the change in preservation conditions and to evaluate the effectiveness of performed mitigation actions. To support heritage guardians in the processing and evaluation of monitored data, an indoor air quality (IAQ) index for heritage applications is introduced. The index is calculated for each measured point in time and is visualized in a user-friendly and intuitive way. The current paper describes the backbone of the IAQ-calculating algorithm. The algorithm is subsequently applied on a case study in which a mitigation action is implemented in a church. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather plays an important role for energy uses in buildings. For this reason, it is required to define the proper boundary conditions in terms of the different parameters affecting energy and comfort in buildings. They are also the basis for determining the ground temperature in different locations, as well as for determining the potential for using geothermal energy. This paper presents a database for climates in Europe that has been used in a freeware tool developed as part of the H2020 research project named "Cheap-GSHPs". The standard Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been matched with the weather data provided by the ENERGYPLUS and METEONORM software database. The Test Reference Years of more than 300 locations have been considered. These locations have been labelled according to the degree-days for heating and cooling, as well as by the Köppen-Geiger scale. A comprehensive data set of weather conditions in Europe has been created and used as input for a GSHP sizing software, helping the user in selecting the weather conditions closest to the location of interest. The proposed method is based on lapse rates and has been tested at two locations in Switzerland and Ireland. It has been demonstrated as quite valid for the project purposes, considering the spatial distribution and density of available data and the lower computing load, in particular for locations where altitude is the main factor controlling on the temperature variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of the considerable impacts of hydrological hazard on water resources, on natural environments and human activities, as well as on human health and safety, climate variability and climate change have become key issues for the research community. In fact, a warmer climate, with its heightened climate variability, will increase the risk of hydrological extreme phenomena, such as droughts and floods. The Special Issue "Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention" presents a collection of scientific contributions that provides a sample of the state-of-the-art and forefront research in this field. In particular, innovative modelling methods for flood hazards, regional flood and drought analysis, and the use of satellite and climate data for drought analysis were the main topics and practice targets that the papers published in this Special Issue aimed to address. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water is essential to all lifeforms including various ecological, geological, hydrological, and climatic processes/activities. With the changing climate, associated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events appear to stimulate highly uncertain patterns of precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration ( E V ) processes across the globe. Changes in P and E V patterns are highly sensitive to temperature (T) variation and thus also affect natural streamflow processes. This paper presents a novel suite of stochastic modelling approaches for associating streamflow sequences with climatic trends. The present work is built upon a stochastic modelling framework (HMM_GP) that integrates a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution for simulating synthetic flow sequences. The GP distribution within the HMM_GP model aims to improve the model's efficiency in effectively simulating extreme events. This paper further investigated the potential of generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) coupled with an HMM model within a regression-based scheme for associating the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration processes on streamflow. The statistical characteristic of the pioneering modelling schematic was thoroughly assessed for its suitability to generate and predict synthetic river flow sequences for a set of future climatic projections, specifically during ENSO events. The new modelling schematic can be adapted for a range of applications in hydrology, agriculture, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is known to cause alterations in weather patterns and disturb the natural equilibrium. Changes in climatic conditions lead to increased environmental stress on embankments, which can result in slope failures. Due to wetting–drying cycles, expansive clayey soil often swells and shrinks, and matric suction is a major factor that controls the behavior. Increased temperature accelerates soil evaporation and drying, which can cause desiccation cracks, while precipitation can rapidly reduce soil shear strength. Desiccated slopes on embankments built with such soils can cause surficial slope failures after intense precipitation. This study used slope stability analysis to quantify how climate-change-induced extreme weather affects embankments. Historic extreme climatic events were used as a baseline to estimate future extremes. CMIP6 provided historical and future climatic data for the study area. An embankment was numerically modeled to evaluate the effect on slope stability due to the precipitation change induced by climate change. Coupled hydro-mechanical finite element analyses used a two-dimensional transient unsaturated seepage model and a limit equilibrium slope stability model. The study found that extreme climatic interactions like precipitation and temperature due to climate change may reduce embankment slope safety. The reduction in the stability of the embankment due to increased precipitation resulting from different greenhouse gas emission scenarios was investigated. The use of unsaturated soil strength and variation of permeability with suction, along with the phase transition of these earthen embankments from near-dry to near-saturated, shows how unsaturated soil mechanics and the hydro-mechanical model can identify climate change issues on critical geotechnical infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stormwater runoff in the USA is a main driver of non-point source pollution and other major problems for urbanizing areas, and runoff effects will be exacerbated by the increased frequency and intensity of heavier storm events that are projected as climate changes. The purpose of this paper is to consider how increased rainfall from storms could influence direct stormwater runoff in urbanizing watersheds. As part of a recent research project in coastal Beaufort County, South Carolina, USA, we applied the Stormwater Runoff Modeling System (SWARM) to model various combinations of development levels and climate change scenarios. SWARM single-event output showed dramatic increases in runoff volume and rate, in some cases almost doubling under moderate climate change scenario and tripling under severe climate change scenario. In all cases, modeled impacts from climate change exceeded those of development. By quantifying stormwater runoff based on climate change scenarios within the context of development, the findings add to the recognition that they must be considered together when projecting changes in watershed hydrology and that climate change effects potentially exceed those of development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the era of global climate change, the monitoring of water resources, including groundwater, is of fundamental importance for nature, agriculture, economy and society. The purpose of this paper is to check compliance of changes in groundwater level obtained from direct measurements in wells with groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies calculated using gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) observations in Poland. Data from the global land data assimilation (GLDAS), in the form of soil moisture (SM) and snow water equivalence (SWE), were used to convert GRACE observations into a series of GWS changes. It was found that very high consistency occurs between GRACE observations and changes in water level in wells, while the GWS series obtained from GRACE and GLDAS do not provide adequate compatibility. Further research presented in the paper was devoted to attempts to explain this phenomenon. In addition, time series of GRACE, GLDAS and groundwater head series were analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In semi-arid areas, many ecosystems and activities depend essentially on water availability. In Morocco, the increase of water demands combined to climate change induced decrease of precipitation put a lot of pressure on groundwater. This paper reports the results of updating and evaluation of groundwater datasets with regards to climate scenarios and institutional choices. The continuous imbalance between groundwater extraction and recharge caused a dramatic decline in groundwater levels (20 to 65 m in the past 30 years). Additionally, Morocco suffers from the degradation in groundwater quality due to seawater intrusion, nitrate pollution and natural salinity changes. Climate data analysis and scenarios predict that temperatures will increase by 2 to 4 °C and precipitation will decrease by 53% in all catchments over this century. Consequently, surface water availability will drastically decrease, which will lead to more extensive use of groundwater. Without appropriate measures, this situation will jeopardize water security in Morocco. In this paper, we zoom on the case the Souss-Massa basin, where management plans (artificial recharge, seawater desalination, and wastewater reuse) have been adopted to restore groundwater imbalance or, at least, mitigate the recorded deficits. These plans may save water for future generations and sustain crop production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bohemian Switzerland is a national park in Northern Czechia famous for its sandstone rocks, which were affected by a massive fire in 2022. Specific geomorphology of the region affected the spreading of the fire and complicated its extinguishing. The fire directly or indirectly damaged several geosites in Bohemian Switzerland. The catastrophe brought a possibility of showing the unique connection between geoheritage and present climate change and increasing awareness about the problems. The text is focused on field education of geography, striving to strengthen environmental awareness among students through educating their teachers. The research is based on desk research, field observation and didactic principles application. The causes of the fire were complex, including physical geographical (drought and bark beetle calamity within climate change) and human geographical phenomena (mass tourism and tourist misbehavior, inappropriate forestry practices). The teachers we worked with reached similar conclusions at the end of our course. Our fieldwork educational concept proved viable and was appreciated by them mainly thanks to the incorporation of research-based learning and the absence of unnatural emphasis on climate change. Climate change is a politicized topic, bringing controversies to the classrooms in the peripheral region. The approach we proposed is anchored in inquiry-based methods and touches on the issue indirectly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already being felt in Europe, unequivocally affecting the regions' geo-structures. Concern over this is rising, as reflected in the increasing number of studies on the subject. However, the majority of these studies focused only on slopes and on a limited geographical scope. In this paper, we attempted to provide a broader picture of potential climate change impacts on the geo-structures in Europe by gathering the collective view of geo-engineers and geo-scientists in several countries, and by considering different geo-structure types. We also investigated how geo-structural concerns are being addressed in national adaptation plans. We found that specific provisions for geo-structural adaptation are generally lacking and mainly come in the form of strategies for specific problems. In this regard, two common strategies are hazard/risk assessment and monitoring, which are mainly implemented in relation to slope stability. We recommend that in future steps, other geo-structures are likewise given attention, particularly those assessed as also potentially significantly affected by climate change. Countries considered in this study are mainly the member countries of the European Large Geotechnical Institutes Platform (ELGIP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The active development of the problems related to the assessment of the role of the pedosphere in global climate change involves the possibility of application of the quantitative determination of soil organic carbon (SOC) as one of the indicators of a climatic response. Here, the authors have summarized the results of their own research over many years (1985–2023), comprising more than 500 determinations of SOC within the area of the Chernozem zone, in the south of the East European Plain (Moldova and Bessarabia, southern Ukraine, southwestern Russia), in the context of regional climate differentiation using evaluations of climatic energy consumption for soil formation. The data were structured for each of the regions through the creation of series of agrogenic soil transformations (virgin land, modern-day ploughed land (<100 years), continually ploughed land (>100 years), fallow land of the modern era (n·10 years), and post-antique long-term fallow land). It has been established, by means of statistical treatment of the data, that the intraregional differentiation of the bioclimatic conditions is the key factor determining the SOC content in the top horizon of soils in the south of the East European Plain. The comparison of the SOC content within the five variants of land use demonstrated that all the regions under study differed, with statistical significance only found in a single type of 'continually ploughed land' (>100 years). This fact reflects the leading role of the duration of agrarian loads in agropedogenesis. If the steppe Chernozems even 145 years ago had a SOC content of up to 4%, then the Chernozems in the forest-steppe zone, which used to have habitats with a SOC content of 4–7%, occupied the largest areas, and have now lost 30–40% of the original values in the 0–50 cm layer. Besides the rates of the SOC degradation, which are known and are comprehensively evaluated in the present work, the phenomenon of progradation was established in certain situations, in particular arising during the rotation regime of land use (from ploughing to fallow fields, and vice versa), which stimulated effective mechanisms of reproduction of organic substances. Thus, in one of the ancient agricultural regions, where in antiquity the land was cultivated by such ancient Greek states as Tauric Chersonesos and the European Bosporos in Crimea, post-antique long-term fallow lands possess higher SOC contents than their virgin analogues. It is not justified to consider virgin lands as absolute references for the evaluation of the humus conditions since the analysis of agrogenic series of Chernozems has corroborated an essential role of the soil organo-mineral matrix in the formation of the carbon protection capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by rising the likelihood of surface runoff. Here, hourly high-resolution rainfall projections from a 1.5 km ('convection-permitting') regional climate model are used to simulate the soil erosion response for two periods of the century (1996–2009 and a 13-year future period at ~2100) in the "Rother" catchment, West Sussex, England. Modeling soil erosion with EROSION 3D, we found a general increase in sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century of about 43.2%, with a catchment-average increase from 0.176 to 0.252 t ha−1 y−1 and large differences between areas with diverse land use. These results highlight the effectiveness of using high-resolution rainfall projections to better account for spatial variability in the assessment of long-term soil erosion than other current methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zircon U-Pb geochronology was applied to investigate the provenance, depositional ages, and paleogeography of the southwestern Gondwana in detrital and ash fall sediments from Carboniferous to Jurassic succession of the southern Paraná Basin. Four detrital age populations suggest provenance from local and distal sources located to the south, southeast, and southwest: (i) Archean to Paleoproterozoic zircons from the Rio de La Plata Craton, Nico Peres and Taquarembó terranes; (ii) Grenvillian zircons from the basement of the Gondwanides and Namaqua–Natal belts; (iii) Neoproterozoic grains from the Don Feliciano Belt; and (iv) Phanerozoic populations from Paleozoic orogenic belts and related foreland systems in Argentina, as well as eroded units of the Paraná Basin. The paleogeographic reconstruction indicates an evolution in three distinct stages: (1) a gulf open to the Panthalassa Ocean during the Carboniferous; (2) an epicontinental sea with the rise of the Gondwanides Orogeny during the Permian; and (3) continental deposits controlled by an intra-plate graben system during the Triassic. Permian–Triassic volcanogenic zircons provide constrained maximum depositional ages and attested persistent volcanism, related to the Choiyoi magmatism and effects of the climate change episodes. During the Triassic, the extensional graben system recorded the uplift of the basement through regional northwest and northeast fault systems, and the recycling of Permian zircons, modifying source-to-sink relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regions located on the Chinese Loess Plateau are sensitive to changes in the Asian monsoon because they are on the edge of the monsoon region. Based on six 230Th experiments and 109 sets of stable isotope data of LH36 from Lianhua Cave, Yangquan City, Shanxi Province, we obtained a paleoclimate record with an average resolution of 120 years from 54.5 to 41.1 ka BP during the MIS3 on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Both the Hendy test and the replication test indicated an equilibrium fractionation of stable isotopes during the stalagmite deposition. Comparison with four other independently-dated, high-resolution stalagmite δ13C records between 29°N and 41°N in the Asian monsoon region shows that the stalagmite δ13C records from different caves have good reproducibility during the overlapped growth period. We suggest that speleothem δ13C effectively indicates soil CO2 production in the overlying area of the cave, reflecting changes in the cave's external environment and in the Asian summer monsoon. Five millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon intensification events correspond to the Dansgaard–Oeschger 10–14 cycles recorded in the Greenland ice core within dating errors, and the weak monsoon processes are closely related to stadials in the North Atlantic. The spatial consistency of stalagmite δ13C records in China suggests that the Asian summer monsoon and the related regional ecological environment fluctuations sensitively respond to climate changes at northern high latitudes through sea-air coupling on the millennial timescale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier mass balance measurements, reconstructions and modeling are the precondition for assessing glacier sensitivity to regional climatic fluctuations. This paper presents new glaciological and geodetic mass balance data of Austre Grønfjordbreen located in the western part of Nordenskiöld Land in Central Spitsbergen. The average annual mass balance from 2014 to 2019 was −1.59 m w.e. The geodetic mass balance from 2008 to 2017 was −1.34 m w.e. The mass balance was also reconstructed by the temperature-index model from 2006 to 2020 and by spatially-distributed energy-balance models for 2011–2015 and 2019. We found a cumulative mass balance of −21.62 m w.e. over 2006–2020. The calculated mass-balance sensitivity to temperature was −1.04 m w.e. °C−1, which corresponds to the highest glacier mass balance sensitivity among Svalbard glaciers. Sensitivity to precipitation change was 0.10 m w.e. for a 10% increase in precipitation throughout the balance year. Comparing the results of the current study with other glacier mass balance assessments in Svalbard, we found that Austre Grønfjordbreen loses mass most rapidly due to its location, which is mostly influenced by the warm West Spitsbergen Current, small area and low elevation range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper compiles research related to debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows in the central Andes (30°–33° S), updating the knowledge of these phenomena in this semiarid region. Continuous records of these phenomena are lacking through the Andean region; intense precipitations, sudden snowmelt, increased temperatures on high relief mountain areas, and permafrost degradation are related to violent flow discharges. Documented catastrophic consequences related to these geoclimatic events highlight the need to improve their understanding in order to prepare the Andean communities for this latent danger. An amplified impact is expected not only due to environmental changes potentially linked to climate change but also due to rising exposure linked to urban expansion toward more susceptible or unstable areas. This review highlights as well the need for the implementation of preventive measures to reduce the negative impacts and vulnerability of the Andean communities in the global warming context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With evidence suggesting that climate change is resulting in changes within the hydrologic cycle, the ability to robustly model hydroclimatic response is critical. This paper assesses how extreme runoff—1:2- and 1:30-year return period (RP) events—may change at a regional level across the UK by the 2080s (2069–2098). Capturing uncertainty in the hydroclimatic modelling chain, flow projections were extracted from the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe) multi-model ensemble: five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) General Circulation Models and four hydrological models forced under emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (5 × 4 × 2 chains). Uncertainty in extreme value parameterisation was captured through consideration of two methods: generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised logistic (GL). The method was applied across 192 catchments and aggregated to eight regions. The results suggest that, by the 2080s, many regions could experience large increases in extreme runoff, with a maximum mean change signal of +34% exhibited in East Scotland (1:2-year RP). Combined with increasing urbanisation, these estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape. Model chain uncertainty was found to increase by the 2080s, though extreme value (EV) parameter uncertainty becomes dominant at the 1:30-year RP (exceeding 60% in some regions), highlighting the importance of capturing both the associated EV parameter and ensemble uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic region is the most sensitive region to climate change. Hydrological models are fundamental tools for climate change impact assessment. However, due to the extreme weather conditions, specific hydrological process, and data acquisition challenges in the Arctic, it is crucial to select suitable hydrological model(s) for this region. In this paper, a comprehensive review and comparison of different models is conducted based on recently available studies. The functionality, limitations, and suitability of the potential hydrological models for the Arctic hydrological process are analyzed, including: (1) The surface hydrological models Topoflow, DMHS (deterministic modeling hydrological system), HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning), SWAT (soil and water assessment tool), WaSiM (water balance simulation model), ECOMAG (ecological model for applied geophysics), and CRHM (cold regions hydrological model); and (2) the cryo-hydrogeological models ATS (arctic terrestrial simulator), CryoGrid 3, GEOtop, SUTRA-ICE (ice variant of the existing saturated/unsaturated transport model), and PFLOTRAN-ICE (ice variant of the existing massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport model). The review finds that Topoflow, HBV, SWAT, ECOMAG, and CRHM are suitable for studying surface hydrology rather than other processes in permafrost environments, whereas DMHS, WaSiM, and the cryo-hydrogeological models have higher capacities for subsurface hydrology, since they take into account the three phase changes of water in the near-surface soil. Of the cryo-hydrogeological models reviewed here, GEOtop, SUTRA-ICE, and PFLOTRAN-ICE are found to be suitable for small-scale catchments, whereas ATS and CryoGrid 3 are potentially suitable for large-scale catchments. Especially, ATS and GEOtop are the first tools that couple surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology. If the accuracy of simulating the active layer dynamics is targeted, DMHS, ATS, GEOtop, and PFLOTRAN-ICE are potential tools compared to the other models. Further, data acquisition is a challenging task for cryo-hydrogeological models due to the complex boundary conditions when compared to the surface hydrological models HBV, SWAT, and CRHM, and the cryo-hydrogeological models are more difficult for non-expert users and more expensive to run compared to other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Caribbean region is highly vulnerable to multiple hazards. Resultant impacts may be derived from single or multiple cascading risks caused by hydrological-meteorological, seismic, geologic, or anthropological triggers, disturbances, or events. Studies suggest that event records and data related to hazards, risk, damage, and loss are limited in this region. National Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) planning and response require data of sufficient quantity and quality to generate actionable information, statistical inferences, and insights to guide continual policy improvements for effective DRR, national preparedness, and response in both time and space. To address this knowledge gap, we review the current state of knowledge, data, models, and tools, identifying potential opportunities, capacity needs, and long-term benefits for integrating Earth Observation (EO) understanding, data, models, and tools to further enhance and strengthen the national DRR framework using two common disasters in Jamaica: floods and landslides. This review serves as an analysis of the current state of DRR management and assess future opportunities. Equally, to illustrate and guide other United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) priority countries in the Pacific region, known as Small Island Developing States (SIDS), to grapple with threats of multiple and compounding hazards in the face of increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, and climate change impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from geocryological studies of soil and rock massifs in permafrost zone are very important as a basis for predicting possible negative consequences associated with climate change. A promising technique for studying geocryological structures (various types of underground ice) is the ground-penetrating radar (GPR) method. This paper presents the applications of the GPR method to prospect and evaluate massive ice in a frozen rock mass. To study the features of GPR signals received during sounding of underground ice, a model of a single GPR trace for the structure "frozen rock-ice-frozen rock" was developed. As a result, regularities were established in the kinematic and dynamic characteristics of GPR signals at the upper and lower boundaries of massive ice, depending on its geometric parameters. The established features were confirmed by the results of computer and physical simulation of GPR measurements of a frozen rock mass model. The main result of the study was to obtain a set of criteria for identifying massive ice according to GPR measurements. The developed criteria will allow the use of GPR for a detailed study of the structure of permafrost rocks to prevent the development of dangerous cryogenic processes in undisturbed and urban areas of the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of Earth observation images available to the public has been the main source of information, helping governments and decision-makers tackling the current world's most pressing global challenge. However, a number of highly skilled and qualified personnel are still needed to fill the gap and help turn these data into intelligence. In addition, the accuracy of this intelligence relies on the quality of these images in times of temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution. For the purpose of contributing to the global effort aiming at monitoring natural and anthropic processes affecting coastal areas, we proposed a framework for image processing to extract the shoreline and the shallow water depth on GeoEye-1 satellite image and orthomosaic image acquired by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) on the coast of San Vito Lo Capo, with image preprocessing steps involving orthorectification, atmospheric correction, pan sharpening, and binary imaging for water and non-water pixels analysis. Binary imaging analysis step was followed by automatic instantaneous shoreline extraction on a digital image and satellite-derived bathymetry (SDB) mapping on GeoEye-1 water pixels. The extraction of instantaneous shoreline was conducted automatically in ENVI software using a raster to vector (R2V) algorithm, whereas the SDB was computed in ArcGIS software using a log-band ratio method applied on the satellite image and available field data for calibration and vertical referencing. The results obtained from these very high spatial resolution images demonstrated the ability of remote sensing techniques in providing information where techniques using traditional methods present some limitations, especially due to their inability to map hard-to-reach areas and very dynamic near shoreline waters. We noticed that for the period of 5 years, the shoreline of San Vito Lo Capo sand beach migrated about 15 m inland, indicating the high dynamism of this coastal area. The bathymetric information obtained on the GeoEye-1 satellite image provided water depth until 10 m deep with R2 = 0.753. In this paper, we presented cost-effective and practical methods for automatic shoreline extraction and bathymetric mapping of shallow water, which can be adopted for the management and the monitoring of coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several new islands and many islets have appeared in the European Arctic since the end of the 20th century due to glacial recession under climate warming. The specificity of the formation of each individual strait and island is shown in the paper (apart from its location and timing of its origin). Analysis of available maps and satellite images of all three European Arctic archipelagos, from different times since 1909–1910, was the main research method. There are three pathways of the morphogenesis of the new islands: (1) simultaneous recession of glaciers from both sides of a depression in bedrock being a potential strait (typical in Franz Josef Land), (2) uncovering a rocky hill (which protrudes from a depression in bedrock) from under a receding glacier, (3) recession of one glacier which had reached a rocky fragment of a coastline (e.g., headland or peninsula), being a potential new island, during a maximum extent of this glacier during the Little Ice Age (in the beginning of the 20th century). Additional straits and islands are currently at the stage of formation and will continue to form in the European Arctic in the case of further warming or stabilization of the current climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We combine our ice-sheet and climate models to formulate a deductive theory of abrupt climate changes pertaining to Heinrich/Dansgaard–Oeschger (H/DO) cycles and the last deglaciation punctuated by the Younger Dryas (YD). Since they are all accompanied by ice-rafted debris, we posit their common origin in the calving of the ice sheet due to a thermal switch at its bed, which naturally endows abruptness to these climate signals of the millennial timescale characteristics of the ice-mass balance. To distinguish the H/DO cycles, we differentiate the thermal triggers by geothermal-heat/surface-melt in the calving of inland/coastal ice, which provide their respective freshwater sources. Since surface-melt requires post-H warmth during the glacial, but is already operative in the Holocene, the DO cycles are encased within the H cycle during the glacial, but self-sustaining in the Holocene. They otherwise share the same time signature, thus resolving this seeming puzzle of commonality without invoking unknown climate forcing. The DO cycles transcend deglaciation to produce the observed sequence, but the calving-induced freshwater flux needs to be boosted by the rerouting of continental meltwater to cause YD. We discern a key process of an eddying ocean in its millennial adjustment toward maximum entropy production (MEP), which would melt the H-induced sea ice to cause an abrupt post-H warming followed by a gradual cooling that anchors the DO cycles to form the hierarchical Bond cycle. Since the modelled anatomies resemble the observed ones, our theory may provide a robust and unified account of abrupt climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost degradation caused by contemporary climate change significantly affects arctic regions. Active layer thickening combined with the thaw subsidence of ice-rich sediments leads to irreversible transformation of permafrost conditions and activation of exogenous processes, such as active layer detachment, thermokarst and thermal erosion. Climatic and permafrost models combined with a field monitoring dataset enable the provision of predicted estimations of the active layer and permafrost characteristics. In this paper, we present the projections of active layer thickness and thaw subsidence values for two Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites of Eastern Chukotka coastal plains. The calculated parameters were used for estimation of permafrost degradation rates in this region for the 21st century under various IPCC climate change scenarios. According to the studies, by the end of the century, the active layer will be 6–13% thicker than current values under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 climate scenario and 43–87% under RCP 8.5. This process will be accompanied by thaw subsidence with the rates of 0.4–3.7 cm∙a−1. Summarized surface level lowering will have reached up to 5 times more than current active layer thickness. Total permafrost table lowering by the end of the century will be from 150 to 310 cm; however, it will not lead to non-merging permafrost formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the prominent factors that causes an increased severity of extreme precipitation which, in turn, has a huge impact on drainage systems by means of flooding. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves play an essential role in designing robust drainage systems against extreme precipitation. It is important to incorporate the potential threat from climate change into the computation of IDF curves. Most existing works that have achieved this goal were based on Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analysis combined with various circulation model simulations. Inspired by recent works that used machine learning algorithms for spatial downscaling, this paper proposes an alternative method to perform projections of precipitation intensity over short durations using machine learning. The method is based on temporal downscaling, a downscaling procedure performed over the time scale instead of the spatial scale. The method is trained and validated using data from around two thousand stations in the US. Future projection of IDF curves is calculated and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change with extreme hydrological conditions, such as drought and flood, bring new challenges to seepage behavior and the stability of earthfill dams. Taking a drought-stricken earthfill dam of China as an example, the influence of drought-flood cycles on dam seepage behavior is analyzed. This paper includes a clay sample laboratory experiment and an unsteady finite element method seepage simulation of the mentioned dam. Results show that severe drought causes cracks on the surface of the clay soil sample. Long-term drought causes deeper cracks and induces a sharp increase of suction pressure, indicating that the cracks would become channels for rain infiltration into the dam during subsequent rainfall, increasing the potential for internal erosion and decreasing dam stability. Measures to prevent infiltration on the dam slope surface are investigated, for the prevention of deep crack formation during long lasting droughts. Unsteady seepage indicators including instantaneous phreatic lines, equipotential lines and pore pressure gradient in the dam, are calculated and analyzed under two assumed conditions with different reservoir water level fluctuations. Results show that when the water level changes rapidly, the phreatic line is curved and constantly changing. As water level rises, equipotential lines shift upstream, and the pore pressure gradient in the dam's main body is larger than that of steady seepage. Furthermore, the faster the water level rises, the larger the pore pressure gradient is. This may cause internal erosion. Furthermore, the case of a cracked upstream slope is modelled via an equivalent permeability coefficient, which shows that the pore pressure gradient in the zone beneath the cracks increases by 5.9% at the maximum water level; this could exacerbate internal erosion. In addition, results are in agreement with prior literature that rapid drawdown of the reservoir water level is detrimental to the stability of the upstream slope based on embankment slope stability as calculated by the Simplified Bishop Method. It is concluded that fluctuations of reservoir water level should be strictly controlled during drought-flood cycles; both the drawdown rate and the fill rate must be regulated to avoid the internal erosion of earthfill dams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential contamination of underground drinking water (UDW) caused by CO2 leakage is a critical decision input for risk assessment and management decision making. This paper presents an overview of the potential alterations to UDW quality caused by CO2 and the relevant quality guidelines on drinking water. Furthermore, a framework and numerical simulator have been developed to (i) predict and assess the potential consequences of CO2 leakage on the quality of UDW; and (ii) assess the efficiency of groundwater remediation methods and scenarios for various UDW leakage conditions and alterations. The simulator was applied to a Canadian CO2 disposal site to assess the potential consequences of CO2 leakage on groundwater quality. The information, framework, and numerical tool presented here are useful for successful risk assessments and the management of CO2 capture and sequestration in Canadian geological formations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new methodology for long-term monitoring of climate change impacts on historic buildings and interiors has been developed. This paper proposes a generic framework for how monitoring programs can be developed and describes the planning and arrangement of a Norwegian monitoring campaign. The methodology aims to make it possible to establish a data-driven decision making process based on monitored decay related to climate change. This monitoring campaign includes 45 medieval buildings distributed over the entirety of Norway. Thirty-five of these buildings are dated to before 1537 and include wooden buildings as well as 10 medieval churches built in stone while the remaining 10 buildings are situated in the World Heritage sites of Bryggen, in Bergen on the west coast of Norway, and in Røros, which is a mining town in the inland of the country. The monitoring is planned to run for 30 to 50 years. It includes a zero-level registration and an interval-based registration system focused on relevant indicators, which will make it possible to register climate change-induced decay at an early stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rockfalls are widespread, rapid, and high-energy landslide phenomena that could potentially affect large portions of populated lands. The preliminary identification of the most rockfall-prone zones is a challenging task, especially in times of extreme and unpredictable climate change. Even slight environmental modifications can produce significant consequences in terms of exposure, hazard, and risk. Therefore, a timely risk assessment is paramount for territorial administrators to plan and prioritize adequate countermeasures. Risk assessment is crucial to guaranteeing the safety of human lives, the integrity of structures and infrastructures, the preservation of historic and environmental heritage, and the safeguard of economic activities. Hence, new and rapid evaluation methods for rockfall hazard, vulnerability, and risk are needed to identify the most critical areas where more indepth analyses aimed at the design of protective works should be carried out. This study proposes a quick, innovative, and completely GIS-based procedure to preliminarily assess rockfall time-independent hazard and risk in large areas. Propagation analysis is performed by integrating powerful QGIS plugin QPROTO, which can estimate rockfall energy within the invasion area in a simplified way, with the slope units polygons of the Italian territory for the definition of the input parameters. The quantification of risk was obtained by the application of the multidisciplinary IMIRILAND methodology, again within a free and open QGIS environment. Lastly, to test the capabilities of the method, the procedure was applied to a case study of the Sorba Valley (Piemonte, Italy), a tourist region in the northwestern Italian Alps. The findings offer an important contribution to the field of land-planning activities and risk-management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gravitational mass movements such as rockfalls, landslides, rock avalanches, or debris flows are increasingly endangering settlement areas and infrastructure facilities in the Alpine region as a result of climate change. An essential component of counteracting the dangers of such events is the construction of suitable protective structures. However, the dimensioning of these protective structures requires in-depth knowledge of the impact process on the structure. Measurements of real large mass movements such as rock avalanches fail due to the large impact forces involved. For this reason, model tests have been carried out by different institutions in different countries in recent decades. An essential aspect of the study of gravitational mass movements using model experiments is scaling experimental results to real events. Therefore, in this study, a model experiment carried out at the University of Innsbruck was recalculated in the first step using the discrete element method (DEM). Subsequently, the experimental results and the numerical DEM model were scaled to a real event using scale factors and then compared again. The aim was to show how well the results of the model tests can be scaled to describe real events of rock avalanches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Lambayeque Valley on the north coast of Peru offers a cautionary case study on the relation between climatic and cultural change. Three archaeological site complexes dating from late in the first millennium AD to the middle of the second millennium AD rose and were abandoned in sequence. Each abandonment was associated with a conflagration on the main pyramidal mound(s). In this region, El Niño is the most significant climatic disruption now and for millennia past. By tracking proxy records for El Niño intensity, we found that only the first episode of abandonment and burning was associated with a strong peak in El Niño intensity, while the final episode was the outcome of the Spanish Conquest of the Andes, a distinctly non-climatic driver. These records suggest that equifinality is operative and urge caution in over-interpreting climate as culture-changing catastrophe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable of resolving urban drainage infrastructure within the city. The modeling approach is demonstrated in quantifying the impact of possible future climate scenarios on transportation infrastructure within Norfolk, Virginia, USA. A series of combined storm events are modeled for current (2020) and projected future (2070) climate scenarios. The results show that pluvial flooding causes a larger interruption to the transportation network compared to tidal flooding under current climate conditions. By 2070, however, tidal flooding will be the dominant flooding mechanism with even nuisance flooding expected to happen daily due to SLR. In 2070, nuisance flooding is expected to cause a 4.6% total link close time (TLC), which is more than two times that of a 50-year storm surge (1.8% TLC) in 2020. The coupled flood model was compared with a widely used but physically simplistic bathtub method to assess the difference resulting from the more complex modeling presented in this study. The results show that the bathtub method overestimated the flooded area near the shoreline by 9.5% and 3.1% for a 10-year storm surge event in 2020 and 2070, respectively, but underestimated the flooded area in the inland region by 9.0% and 4.0% for the same events. The findings demonstrate the benefit of sophisticated modeling methods compared to more simplistic bathtub approaches, in climate adaptive planning and policy in coastal communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses articles in the issue on topics including geosciences, climatic change, and climatic change.

Climate change has led to an increase in extreme weather events and desertification of vast areas of southern Argentina. Water shortages are a major concern, and this problem is expected to be exacerbated in the future. An exploration program was undertaken to investigate the groundwater occurrence in areas of the Chubut River basin in order to provide new supply options for pastoral farming. The investigation involved the drilling of exploration holes and construction of bores for long-term monitoring. Water quality and hydraulic test data were also collected. Findings from the study indicate that alluvial sediments extend to a maximum of 45 m below the surface, and are underlain by a sequence of clays and subordinated sands that exceed 100 m in thickness. The bulk of groundwater lies within the shallow sediments, which act as an unconfined aquifer. Hydraulic conductivities up to 10 m/day were estimated from pumping tests, although granulometric analyses indicate that higher values may occur. Chemical characterization indicates that waters are typically fresh, low in sodium, and largely suitable for stock-grazing or horticulture. Anomalous salinities at one of the sites are likely due to the effects of a nearby waste dump. Even though further work is required, the study contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of the hydrogeological system in the basin under a warming climate, and provides useful information for the expansion of economic activities in remote communities of Argentina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A history of modern (1973-2015) surface area variability for Lake Basotu in north-central Tanzania has been reconstructed using archived Landsat images from the dry season between June and October. This record was compared to local weather data as well as larger scale weather patterns. The lake has been in a state of decline interrupted by major flood events since the beginning of the satellite record. From 1973 to 1997, the lake area was between 0.97 km² and 4.28 km². Lake extent abruptly increased to 13.86 km² in 1998, when a co-occurrence of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole led to extensive flooding. It is hypothesized that local agricultural practices leading to soil erosion and subsequent basin sedimentation have most likely increased the sensitivity of Lake Basotu to climatic fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to reduce water security in arid mountain regions around the world. Vulnerable water supplies in semi-arid zones, such as the Dry Andes, are projected to be further stressed through changes in air temperature, precipitation patterns, sublimation, and evapotranspiration. Together with glacier recession this will negatively impact water availability. While glacier hydrology has been the focus of scientific research for a long time, relatively little is known about the hydrology of mountain permafrost. In contrast to glaciers, where ice is at the surface and directly affected by atmospheric conditions, the behaviour of permafrost and ground ice is more complex, as other factors, such as variable surficial sediments, vegetation cover, or shallow groundwater flow, influence heat transfer and time scales over which changes occur. The effects of permafrost on water flow paths have been studied in lowland areas, with limited research in the mountains. An understanding of how permafrost degradation and associated melt of ground ice (where present) contribute to streamflow in mountain regions is still lacking. Mountain permafrost, particularly rock glaciers, is often conceptualized as a (frozen) water reservoir; however, rates of permafrost ground ice melt and the contribution to water budgets are rarely considered. Additionally, ground ice and permafrost are not directly visible at the surface; hence, uncertainties related to their three-dimensional extent are orders of magnitude higher than those for glaciers. Ground ice volume within permafrost must always be approximated, further complicating estimations of its response to climate change. This review summarizes current understanding of mountain permafrost hydrology, discusses challenges and limitations, and provides suggestions for areas of future research, using the Dry Andes as a basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice-influenced hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes often cause floods in cold regions of the globe. These floods are typically associated with ice jams and can have negative socio-economic impacts, while their impacts on riverine ecosystems can be both detrimental and beneficial. Several methods have been proposed for constructing frequency distributions of ice-influenced annual peak stages where historical data are scarce, or for estimating future frequencies under different climate change scenarios. Such methods rely on historical discharge data, which are generally easier to obtain than peak stages. Future discharges can be simulated via hydrological models, driven by climate-model output. Binary sequences of historical flood/no-flood occurrences have been studied using logistic regression on physics-based explanatory variables or exclusively weather-controlled proxies, bypassing the hydrological modelling step in climate change projections. Herein, background material on relevant river ice processes is presented first, followed by descriptions of various proposed methods to quantify flood risk and assess their advantages and disadvantages. Discharge-based methods are more rigorous; however, projections of future flood risk can benefit from improved hydrological simulations of winter and spring discharges. The more convenient proxy-based regressions may not adequately reflect the controlling physics-based variables, while extrapolation of regression results to altered climatic conditions entails further uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]