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A seismic hazard can be quantified by using probabilities. Modern seismic forecasting models (e.g., Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems) allow us to quantify the short-term variations in such probabilities. Indeed these probabilities change with time and space, in particular after strong seismic events. However, the short-term seismic hazard could also change during seismic swarms, i.e., a sequence with several small-/medium-sized events. The goal of this work is to quantify these changes, using the Italian Operational Earthquake Forecasting system, and also estimate the variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value. We focus our attention on three seismic swarms that occurred in Central Italy in October–November 2023. Our results indicate that short-term variations in seismic hazard are limited, less than an order of magnitude, and also that b-value variations are not significant. Placing our findings in a more general context, we can state that according to currently available models and catalogs, the occurrence of seismic swarms does not significantly affect the short-term seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of a large number of critical infrastructure systems needs to be periodically re-evaluated. This is especially so when such systems are located in seismic areas and are subjected to ageing effects. Seismic re-evaluations are typically performed using numerical response history analyses based on a geotechnical model of the infrastructure and using hazard-consistent ground motions. We depart from the Viadotto Italia (the tallest multi-span bridge in Italy, located in a high-seismicity region) to draw best practices on how to construct a robust geotechnical model and derive appropriate target response spectra to be used in forward applications. Our proposed framework starts with the analysis of historical and new information and data. We then describe how to perform a multi-epoch consistency analysis that deals with the reliability and level of uncertainty of the data, culminating with the definition of a pragmatic geotechnical model that builds upon all available data, including investigation information produced at different spatial resolutions and quality levels. We also propose a consistent approach to perform site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to develop appropriate ground motions. This last step builds upon experiences with a data-rich high-seismicity zone in southern Italy, where both shallow crustal faults and deep subduction sources are present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional-scale analyses of susceptibility to liquefaction are seldom performed in data-scarce areas. However, in spite of data limitations, such efforts can still provide useful information in case of populated, seismically active regions. The present work focuses on susceptibility zonation for soil liquefaction that might occur due to ground shaking in the Foggia Province, a data-scarce, seismically active area of about 7000 km2 located in southern Italy. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach is used to obtain the susceptibility to liquefaction map of the whole area, while a geological and geotechnical database including 531 boreholes from 84 localities is used for cross-validation. The data are processed by means of a simplified quantitative method to determine liquefaction potential and assess whether a specific area is prone to liquefaction or not. Our results, along with an AUC − ROC = 0.89 test value, indicate that there are widespread areas of medium to high and very high susceptibility, and that the most susceptible zones are localized along the Adriatic Sea coastline and watercourses. The final susceptibility to liquefaction map represents a step forward towards the assessment of secondary seismic hazard in the study area, thus supporting the regional and local administrations responsible for land-use planning and risk mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to describe the seismic-driven multi-hazard scenario of the Lake Campotosto artificial basin (Abruzzo Region, Central Italy), and it can represent a preparatory study for a quantitative multi-hazard analysis. A comprehensive multi-hazard scenario considers all the effects that can occur following the base ground shaking, providing a holistic approach to assessing the real hazard potential and helping to improve management of disaster mitigation. The study area might be affected by a complex earthquake-induced chain of geologic hazards, such as the seismic shaking, the surface faulting of the Gorzano Mt. Fault, which is very close to one of the three dams that form the Lake Campotosto, and by the earthquake-triggered landslides of different sizes and typologies. These hazards were individually and qualitatively analyzed, using data from an engineering-geological survey and a geomechanical classification of the rock mass. With regard to the seismic shaking, a quantitative evaluation of the seismic response of the Poggio Cancelli valley, in the northern part of Lake Campotosto, was performed, highlighting different seismic amplification phenomena due to morphologic and stratigraphic features. Some insights about the possible multi-hazard approaches are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of natural periods and related mode shapes of earth dams represents a critical issue when performing structure-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The identification of critical scenario events, using techniques such as disaggregation of the seismic hazard, and the calculation of a suitable target spectrum for ground motion selection and scaling procedures (e.g., the conditional mean spectrum), require at least the knowledge of the fundamental period of the system. This problem can be solved using analytical, numerical, and/or empirical techniques. We present several linear elastic modal analyses for an earth dam located in Southern Italy, using a numerical solution of the generalized eigenvalue problem obtained by the finite element method (FEM). Our numerical experiments are performed, testing various assumptions on boundary conditions, degree of saturation, and the distribution of geotechnical characteristics of the dam's materials. We then compare our results against existing analytical solutions. We show that ignoring soil–structure interaction effects due to the flexibility of the dam foundation (i.e., under the assumption of fixed base) can lead to a substantial underestimation of the fundamental period of the dam. This effect should be carefully addressed when modal analysis results are used in PSHA-related applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquake Environmental Effects (EEEs) are a common occurrence following moderate to strong seismic events. EEEs are described in literary sources even for earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago, but their potential for hazard assessment is not fully exploited. Here we analyze five earthquakes occurred in the Southern Apennines (Italy) between 1688 and 1980, to assess if EEEs are reliable indicators of the effects caused by past earthquakes. We investigate the spatial distribution of EEEs and their ability to repeatedly occur at the same place, and we quantitatively compare the macroseismic fields expressed in terms of damage-based intensity (MCS: Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg) to the Environmental Scale Intensity (ESI) macroseismic field, derived from an intensity attenuation relation. We computed the field "ESI-MCS", showing that results are consistent when comparing different seismic events and that ESI values are higher in the first ca. 10 km from the epicenter, while at distances greater than 20 km MCS values are higher than ESI. Our research demonstrates that (i) EEEs offer a detailed picture of earthquake effects in the near field and (ii) the reappraisal of literary sources under a modern perspective may provide improved input parameters that are useful for seismic hazard assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]