4 results on '"George C. Hurtt"'
Search Results
2. Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
- Author
-
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
- Subjects
Earth Resources And Remote Sensing - Abstract
Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25°×0.25°) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations
- Author
-
Alexander Shapiro, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Natalie A. Krivova, Andrew Schurer, Michael N. Evans, Sebastian Wagner, Gavin A. Schmidt, Steven J. Phipps, Matthew Toohey, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jason E. Smerdon, Edouard Bard, Hugues Goosse, Pascale Braconnot, Claudia Timmreck, Allegra N. LeGrande, Eugene Rozanov, George C. Hurtt, Hauke Schmidt, Myriam Khodri, Jed O. Kaplan, Raimund Muscheler, Amanda C. Maycock, Fortunat Joos, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Chi Ju Wu, Werner Schmutz, Jürg Luterbacher, T. Egorova, Jian Cao, Qiong Zhang, Sami K. Solanki, Kok Leng Yeo, Louise Chini, Eduardo Zorita, Mélanie Baroni, Michael Sigl, Julia Pongratz, Wenmin Man, Johann H. Jungclaus, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Davide Zanchettin, Stephan Lorenz, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Ilya Usoskin
- Subjects
Flexibility (engineering) ,Coupled model intercomparison project ,Forcing (recursion theory) ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Meteorology ,Collaborative model ,Land cover ,01 natural sciences ,Tier 1 network ,13. Climate action ,Greenhouse gas ,Climatology ,Tier 2 network ,0103 physical sciences ,010303 astronomy & astrophysics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2
- Author
-
D. O'Leary, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jonathan C. Doelman, Elke Stehfest, Steve Frolking, Lei Ma, Ritvik Sahajpal, George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Julia Pongratz, and Environmental Sciences
- Subjects
Biomass (ecology) ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,lcsh:QE1-996.5 ,Earth and Planetary Sciences(all) ,General Medicine ,Land cover ,Vegetation ,Old-growth forest ,lcsh:Geology ,Greenhouse gas ,Modelling and Simulation ,Environmental science ,Secondary forest ,Climate model ,Land use, land-use change and forestry ,Physical geography - Abstract
Anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change activities play a critical role in Earth system dynamics through significant alterations to biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties at local to global scales. To quantify the magnitude of these impacts, climate models need consistent land-cover change time series at a global scale, based on land-use information from observations or dedicated land-use change models. However, a specific land-use change cannot be unambiguously mapped to a specific land-cover change. Here, nine translation rules are evaluated based on assumptions about the way land-use change could potentially impact land cover. Utilizing the Global Land-use Model 2 (GLM2), the model underlying the latest Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), the land-cover dynamics resulting from land-use change were simulated based on multiple alternative translation rules from 850 to 2015 globally. For each rule, the resulting forest cover, carbon density and carbon emissions were compared with independent estimates from remote sensing observations, U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization reports, and other studies. The translation rule previously suggested by the authors of the HYDE 3.2 dataset, that underlies LUH2, is consistent with the results of our examinations at global, country and grid scales. This rule recommends that for CMIP6 simulations, models should (1) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary and secondary land (including both forested and non-forested) to cropland, urban land and managed pasture; (2) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary forest and/or secondary forest to rangeland; (3) keep vegetation in land-use changes from primary non-forest and/or secondary non-forest to rangeland. Our analysis shows that this rule is one of three (out of nine) rules that produce comparable estimates of forest cover, vegetation carbon and emissions to independent estimates and also mitigate the anomalously high carbon emissions from land-use change observed in previous studies in the 1950s. According to the three translation rules, contemporary global forest area is estimated to be span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"37.42×106/span kmspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"2/span, within the range derived from remote sensing products. Likewise, the estimated carbon stock is in close agreement with reference biomass datasets, particularly over regions with more than 50 % forest cover.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
Catalog
Discovery Service for Jio Institute Digital Library
For full access to our library's resources, please sign in.