Search

This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT model conducted at different ecosystem types in the USA and Australia. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting Shortwave Incoming Solar Radiation (Rg), Net Radiation (Rnet), Latent Heat (LE), Sensible Heat (H), Air Temperature at 1.3m (Tair 1.3m) and Air Temperature at 50m (Tair 50m). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from 8 sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation. The application of the model confirmed its high capability in representing the multifarious and complex interactions of the Earth system. Comparisons showed a good agreement between modelled and measured fluxes, especially for the days with smoothed daily flux trends. A good to excellent agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements was reported, particularly so for the LE, H, Tair 1.3m and Tair 50m parameters (RMSD= 39.47, 55.06 Wm-2, 3.23, 3.77°C respectively). A systematic underestimation of Rg and Rnet (RMSD=67.83, 58.69 Wm-2, MBE= 67.83, 58.69 Wm-2 respectively) was also found. Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. Very high values of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index were also reported for all parameters ranging from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting a very good model representation of the observations. To our knowledge, this study presents the first comprehensive validation of Sim- Sphere, particularly so in USA and Australian ecosystem types. Findings are important and timely, given the rapidly expanding use of this model worldwide both as an educational and research tool. This includes ongoing research by different Space Agencies examining its synergistic use with Earth Observation data towards the development of global operational products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface albedo, the fraction of incoming solar radiation reflected by the land surface, is a key component of the earth system. This study evaluates snow-free surface albedo simulations by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CA- BLEv1.4b) model with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo. We compare results from two offline simulations over the Australian continent, one with prescribed background snow-free and vegetation-free soil albedo derived from MODIS (the control), and the other with a simple parameterisation based on soil moisture and colour. The control simulation shows that CABLE simulates albedo over Australia reasonably well, with differences with MODIS within an acceptable range. Inclusion of the parameterisation for soil albedo however introduced large errors for the near infra red albedo, especially for desert regions of central Australia. These large errors were not fully explained by errors in soil moisture or parameter uncertainties, but are similar to errors in albedo in other land surface models which use the same soil albedo scheme. Although this new parameterisation has introduced larger errors as compared to prescribing soil albedo, dynamic soil moisture-albedo feedbacks are now enabled in CABLE. Future directions for albedo parameterisations development in CABLE are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A convolution based method of spectral nudging of atmospheric fields is developed in the Australian Community Climate and Earth Systems Simulator (ACCESS) version 1.3 which uses the UK Met Office Unified Model version 7.3 as its atmospheric component. The use of convolutions allow flexibility in application to different atmospheric grids. An approximation using one-dimensional convolutions is applied, improving the time taken by the nudging scheme by 10 to 30 times compared with a version using a twodimensional convolution, without measurably degrading its performance. Care needs to be taken in the order of the convolutions and the frequency of nudging to obtain the best outcome. The spectral nudging scheme is benchmarked against a Newtonian relaxation method, nudging winds and air temperature towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. We find that the convolution approach can produce results that are competitive with Newtonian relaxation in both the effectiveness and efficiency of the scheme, while giving the added flexibility of choosing which length scales to nudge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study that determines the effectiveness of multi-model methods in improving the reliability of catchment scale nitrogen predictions. It describes the method of the study that observes for models to predict the total nitrogen (TN) losses from the well-monitored Ellen Brook catchment in Western Australia. It notes the result of the study, which shows the effectiveness of one of the models that provide different approach to management changes.

The article presents a research which investigates the proposed framework for downscaling coarse climate change projections for oceans in the Australian region. It explores significance of the downscaling model in projecting marine impacts of climate change. The restoration of the ocean feedback on the air-sea fluxes to surface temperature and salinity is explored. It notes that the framework offers an attractive way to explore the impact of climate change on mesoscale ocean environment.

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting climate-mediated different sensitivities of modeled sugar cane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is changing the earth system processes that control the characteristics of natural hazards both globally and across Australia. Model projections of hazards under future climate change are necessary for effective adaptation. This paper presents BARPA-R (the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia), a regional climate model designed to downscale climate projections over the Australasian region with the purpose to investigate future hazards. BARPA-R, a limited area model, has a 17 km horizontal grid-spacing and makes use of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmospheric model and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. To establish credibility and in compliance with the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) experiment design, the BARPA-R framework has been used to downscale ERA-5 reanalysis. Here, an assessment of this evaluation experiment is provided. First, an examination of BARPA-R's representation of Australia's surface air temperature, rainfall and 10-m winds finds good performance overall, with biases including a 1K cold bias in daily maximum temperatures, reduced diurnal temperature range, and wet biases up to 25 mm/month in inland Australia. Recent trends in diurnal maximum temperatures are consistent with observational products, while trends in minimum temperatures show overestimated warming and trends in rainfall show underestimated wetting in northern Australia. Rainfall and temperature teleconnections are effectively represented in BARPA-R when present in the driving boundary conditions, while 10-metre winds are improved over ERA5 in six out of eight of the Australian regions considered. The second section of the paper considers the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation features and weather systems. While generally well represented, convection-related features such as tropical cyclones, the SPCZ, Northwest Cloud-Bands and the monsoon westerlies show more divergence from observations and internal interannual variability than mid-latitude phenomena such as the westerly jets and extra-tropical cyclones. Having simulated a realistic Australasian climate, the BARPA-R framework will be used to downscale two climate change scenarios from seven CMIP6 GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P) satellite, launched in 2017, measures the total column concentration of the trace gas Carbon Monoxide (CO) daily on a global scale and at a high spatial resolution of 7×7 km², improved to 5.5×7 km² in August 2019. The TROPOMI observations show plumes of CO due to localized CO emissions from industrial sources and biomass burning. In this paper, we quantify these CO emissions for biomass burning by an automated algorithm, APE, to detect plumes and quantify the CO emission rate using cross-sectional flux method. Furthermore, the influence of a constant and a varying plume height in downwind direction on emissions is investigated and algorithm uncertainties are quantified. The VIIRS active fire data in conjunction with the TROPOMI CO datasets is used to identify fires and the fire locations. Then, an automated plume detection algorithm using traditional image processing algorithms is developed and utilized to identify plumes. For these plumes, the emission rate is estimated by the cross10 section flux method at three different plume heights. The first two are constant plume heights at a 100 m and an IS4FIRES injection height from Global Fire Assimilation System. And the last one is a varying plume height in downwind direction. A 3D Lagrangian model is used to simulate tracer particles where the source locations for the simulation are based on the VIIRS fire counts and IS4FIRES injection height. 3D velocities at 137 model levels (ERA5) are utilized to simulate tracer particles. We demonstrate the quality and validity of our automated approach by investigating biomass burning events and their emissions for Australia on Oct 2019 and the US on Sept 2020. A total of 110 and 31 individual fire plumes in Australia and the US, respectively were detected and their emissions estimated. The emissions were severely under-predicted and negative for 11 cases when based on constant plume height of 100 m compared to emissions based on varying plume height. Furthermore, the effect of the changing plume height in downwind direction on the emission estimate compared to emissions from constant IS4FIRES plume height was minor as 124 cases are found to have emission variation less than 10%. However, we were able to identify several cases where the flux estimates become more reliable with varying plume height. Thus, the varying plume height in downwind direction is considered for the automated algorithm. The cross-section flux method is found to have an uncertainty of 38% in one of the idealized cases. However, overall uncertainty of the algorithm is difficult to quantify as conditions for each fire are unique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the mid 1990s, Australia's Commonwealth Science Industry and Research Organisation (CSIRO) has developed a biogeochemical (BGC) model for coupling with a hydrodynamic and sediment model for application in estuaries, coastal waters and shelf seas. The suite of coupled models is referred to as the CSIRO Environmental Modelling Suite (EMS) and has been applied at tens of locations around the Australian continent. At a mature point in the BGC model's development, this paper presents a full mathematical description, as well as links to the freely available code and User Guide. The mathematical description is structured into processes so that the details of new parameterisations can be easily identified, along with their derivation. The EMS BGC model cycles carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous and oxygen through multiple phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus and dissolved organic and inorganic forms in multiple water column and sediment layers. The underwater light field is simulated by a spectrally-resolved optical model that includes the calculation of water-leaving reflectance for validation with remote sensing. The water column is dynamically coupled to the sediment to resolve deposition, resuspension and benthic-pelagic biogeochemical fluxes. With a focus on shallow waters, the model also includes particularly-detailed representations of benthic plants such as seagrass, macroalgae and coral polyps. A second focus has been on, where possible, the use of geometric derivations of physical limits to constrain ecological rates, which generally requires population-based rates to be derived from initially considering the size and shape of individuals. For example, zooplankton grazing considers encounter rates of one predator on a prey field based on summing relative motion of the predator with the prey individuals and the search area, chlorophyll synthesis includes a geometrically-derived self-shading term, and the bottom coverage of benthic plants is generically-related to their biomass using an exponential form derived from geometric arguments. This geometric approach has led to a more algebraically-complicated set of equations when compared to more empirical biogeochemical model formulations. But while being algebraically-complicated, the model has fewer unconstrained parameters and is therefore simpler to move between applications than it would otherwise be. The version of the biogeochemistry described here is implemented in the eReefs project that is delivering a near real time coupled hydrodynamic, sediment and biogeochemical simulation of the Great Barrier Reef, northeast Australia, and its formulation provides an example of the application of geometric reasoning in the formulation of aquatic ecological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]