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Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to simulate the magnitude. The ability to simulate the seasonal trend of average storm intensity varies among locations. Within-storm patterns from RCMs exhibit greater variability than from observed records. Comparisons between RCM-historic simulations and RCM projections indicate that there is a large variation in the future changes in storm properties. However, multi-model ensembles of the storm properties suggest that most regions of the United States will experience future changes in storm properties that includes shorter storm duration, longer inter-storm period, and larger average storm intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increase of precipitation intensity is the most definite and detectable hydrological consequence of a warmer climate. Among all U.S. regions, the Northeast has witnessed the strongest increase of extreme precipitation in the past five decades. This study examines the impact of climate changes during 1950–2011 on hydrological processes in the Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study. In addition to precipitation and river discharge data from observations, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model is used to derive hydrological variables for which long-term observational data are not readily available. Our results show a clear increase of precipitation intensity, with substantial increase in both the number of days with greater than 10 mm precipitation and the simple daily intensity index. From 1950 to 2011, extreme precipitation amount (which is the total amount of precipitation from the upper 1% of daily precipitation) increased substantially, by 240% relative to the 1950 level. The weight of extreme precipitation as a fraction of total precipitation also increased, from about 10.6% in the 1950s to 30.4% in the 2000s. Despite the increase of precipitation extremes, the consecutive dry days experienced a slight decrease. Mean trend analysis shows indications of increasing precipitation amount, increasing discharge, increasing runoff ratios, increasing soil moisture, and a negligible evapotranspiration trend. Our simulations suggest that the basin is entering a wetter regime more subject to meteorological flood conditions than to drought conditions. A companion paper will investigate how these trends may persist or differ in the mid-21st century under continued warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]