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The Asian monsoon influences the lives of more than a third of the world's population, and understanding its spatial and temporal variability is fundamental to sustainable development. The complex dynamics of this climatic system are therefore of broad scientific and societal interest. In this virtual special issue (VSI), we present 19 papers dealing with the Asian monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21 kyr BP), with a focus on understanding variability and forcing mechanisms. Findings use recently developed quantitative reconstructions combined with numerical simulations, and present novel insights as follows: (1) analyses of comprehensive datasets of pollen, diatom, brGDGTs, oxygen and hydrogen isotopes and frequency magnetic susceptibility, as well as an innovative algorithm model for the lake energy-water balance, improve the reliability of quantitative reconstructions of Asian monsoon climate variations; (2) studies of quantitative climate parameters in central East Asia show that mean annual temperature (MAT) was ∼5 °C (or ∼ 7.9 °C using brGDGTs) lower during the LGM, ∼1.5 °C (±41% using brGDGTs) higher around the Holocene thermal optimum (HO) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) varied between 30 and 150% with marked seasonality during 8–5 ka; (3) dynamical downscaling palaeoclimatic simulations improve the accuracy of past monsoon variations, revealing strong variability in monsoon precipitation across the LGM and HO. The holistic study of Asian monsoon variations at orbital to centennial timescales in these VSI papers presents reliable observations of monsoon variability and its driving mechanisms, providing high-resolution quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions that fill existing gaps in spatial coverage, as well as offering an improved understanding, thorough numerical simulation, of coupled sea-level change and vegetation feedbacks. • An introduction to Asian monsoon variations over the past 21 ka. • Transfer functions, sedimentary records and numerical simulation are developed for studying past Asian monsoon. • Averaged MAP in East Asia varied between 30-150 % over the past 21 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In High Mountain Asia, human-induced climate warming threatens the cryosphere. Expected long-term reductions in future runoff from glacial catchments raises concerns regarding the sustainability of these natural 'water towers' and the implications of reduced water availability for regional human and ecological systems. Ice-debris landforms (I-DL), containing ice whether moving or not include rock glaciers and ice-cored moraines, and are likely to be climatically more resilient than debris-covered and debris-free glaciers. Recent work has shown that rock glaciers contain globally valuable water supplies yet over High Mountain Asia information regarding their number, spatial distribution, morphometric characteristics and water content are scarce. Here, we present the first systematic estimate of the current extent and distribution of rock glaciers for a subset of High Mountain Asia (the Himalaya). A sample of 2070 intact and relict rock glaciers were digitized on Google Earth imagery from the Western, Central and Eastern Himalaya regions and then quantitative and qualitative characteristics were analysed regionally based on topographic data from the NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Version 3.0 and then aggregated across the Himalaya using an "upscaling" method. The majority of the digitized landforms (∼65%) were categorised as intact rock glaciers (i.e., ice-debris Landforms, or I-DLs, containing ice) and the remainder as relict rock glaciers (i.e., discrete debris accumulations or DDAs, not containing ice). They range in elevation from 3225 to 5766 m a.s.l., with the lowest in the Central Himalaya. Sampled relict and intact rock glaciers are primarily situated on northern quadrants. Over the entire Himalaya, we identified ∼25,000 landforms, with a total estimated areal coverage of 3747 km2. The area upscaling method was validated in the Manaslu region of Nepal using high-resolution Planet data (5 m) and freely available, fine spatial resolution optical satellite data accessed through Google Earth Pro and ESRI basemaps. In absence of complete rock glacier inventories over the Himalaya, our approach proves useful to investigate the nature, distribution and infer potential future behaviour of these landforms across the Himalaya in a changing climate. • Climate change in the mountains of the Himalaya is driving glacier melting and associated changes in water supplies to downstream areas. • This impacts the water supplies for hundreds of millions of people and ecosystems and is seen as a great challenge for future sustainable development in this part of central Asia. • However, large volumes of ice are contained are contained in rock glaciers (ice-debris landforms common in high arid mountains) although research on the number and extent of these in the Himalaya is limited. • In this paper, we present the first systematic estimate of the current extent and distribution of rock glaciers for the Himalaya and show that around 25,000 landforms exist in the region, with a total estimated areal coverage of 3747 km2. • We argue that rock glaciers constitute hydrologically valuable long-term water stores and, with continued climatically-driven glacier recession and mass loss, their value is likely to become increasingly important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adds to the literature on the determinants of international migration. First, we offer a joint analysis of the driving forces of migration capturing year-to-year variations and long-run effects. Second, we analyze the dynamic response of migration to shocks to its determinants. We start by presenting a theoretical model that allows us to model migration as an augmented gravity equation. We then construct a rich panel data set with 16 destination and 198 origin countries between 1980 and 2015. We find that climate variables are important drivers of migration flows in our sample. We then estimate a panel vectorautoregressive model showing that the dynamic response of migration is very different across shocks to different driving forces. These findings add to the discussion about the effects of climate shocks on mobility and the concept of trapped population. Our findings carry implications for national and international immigration policies. • This paper adds to the literature on the determinants of international migration. • We construct a panel data set with 16 destination and 198 origin countries from 1980 to 2015. • Climate change is a more important driver than income and political freedom at origin together. • The dynamic response of migration is very different across shocks to different driving forces. • Our findings add to the discussion about the effects of climate shocks on mobility and the concept of trapped population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are one of the gravest natural hazards for societies, worsened by population growth, unchecked development, and climate change. From a Global Change perspective, past extreme events merit particular interest because they can be linked to wider climate and environmental changes, introduce perturbations. During the last decade, knowledge of long-term flood frequency and magnitude has been improved by extracting data from different types of archive. But, despite advances in dating methods, proxies and statistical techniques and efforts to identify atmospheric drivers, some fundamental questions remain unresolved. The Special Issue entitled "Pluridisciplinary analysis and multi-archive reconstruction of paleofloods" in the journal Global and Planetary Change addresses these uncertainties and complexities by assembling a selection of studies, which were first presented at the Past Climate Changes (PAGES) Open Scientific Meeting held at Zaragoza in 2017. In this introductory paper, the guest editors outline the 17 research contributions and meta-data from the 17 paleoflood studies were systematically analyzed in terms of i) geographical distribution; ii) methodologies applied; iii) types of archives; iii) numbers of flood series compiled and iv) spatial and temporal resolution of paleoflood data. The data indicate that paleoflood studies focused on fluvial depositional environments show a higher rate of integration with other types of paleoflood archive (mean of 4.5 types of archive) than studies focused on documentary sources (mean of 3.5) and lake sediments (mean of 2.4). We suggest that this strategy of archive integration has been adapted to effectively compensate for the higher uncertainties of fluvial deposition in floodplains. Statistical processing of the meta-data shows quantitative associations between specific types of flood archive and offers a solid platform for designing the optimal approach for multi-archive paleoflood research. A qualitative review and visual comparison of the 17 paleoflood series shows some consistent trends and breaks but also notable differences within and between regions. While a trend of increased flooding since 4-5 ka BP is evident, the lack of synchronicity between breaks and the coeval increases and decreases in fluvial activity is manifest. The majority of studies in the Special Issue do denote the 19th century – including the youngest cool climate pulses during the Little Ice Age – as a particularly flood-rich period. It is more difficult to assess the 20th century because of social changes, population growth and extensive river modification. Despite the mentioned uncertainties, 10 of 14 papers do not record the 20th century as an exceptional flood period. Assessing the effects of human impact on paleoflood calendars and disentangling anthropogenic from natural drivers are major challenges in integrated paleoflood analysis. It is concluded that the interpretation of flood series is complex as landscapes and flood drivers are heterogeneous and systems show different sensitivities to flood control and drivers. Thus, the study of past floods, from historical and natural archives, is challenging but also offers unparalleled opportunities to document low-frequency, large-magnitude flood events, which occurred under a broad range of climate and/or environmental scenarios, and, probably, the only way to reconstruct robust paleoflood series. • Guest editor's introduction in the Special Issue (SI) on paleofloods. • Meta-data and factor analysis (FA) of 17 paleoflood studies of the SI. • Conceptual model of multi-archive paleoflood integration. • Trends of paleofloods, natural and human drivers from the early Holocene to present. • Scoop and limitations of multi-archive paleoflood integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactions among different large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupled modes are exceptionally complex. Diverse scale modes interact through oceanic circulations, ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes, and atmospheric bridges, thus affecting both the global weather system and long-term climate changes. This paper presents a review of the interaction mechanisms among six ocean-atmosphere coupled modes (ENSO, PDO, IOD, AO, NAO, and AMO) and their impacts on the South and East Asian Monsoon. Identifying the changes in the dynamics and energy budgets caused by the spatial structure evolution and amplitude change of various ocean-atmosphere coupled modes can yield a better understanding of their forcing effects on climate change. These effects are not only restricted to surrounding regions, but also significant interaction is found between the distant equator and the polar region. Interactions between various ocean-atmosphere coupled modes occur through Rossby wave activity, westerly airflow, cyclone circulation, and pressure gradients. However, because of the complexity of the relationship between multiple factors, it remains difficult to clarify the driving mechanism of each coupled mode change. More importantly, predictions based on long-term observation data are still a weak link in climate change research. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the interaction among the six ocean-atmosphere coupled modes, thus uncovering their impacts on South and East Asian Monsoon from a global perspective. • None of the ocean-atmosphere coupled modes exist independently. • Atmospheric bridges and ocean heat transfer exert an important impact on climate. • Circulation anomalies are triggered through waveguide in the mid-latitude region. • The equatorial region promotes vortex to affect the middle–high latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health. • Frequency of hot-dry events and hot-humidity events will increase and decrease, respectively, in the future. • There are abrupt points and periodicity in the future time series of compound temperature and precipitation extremes. • Asia is projected to have the greatest exposure and climate change contributes the most to exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computationally inexpensive carbon cycle models serve as critical and efficient tools for illuminating the complex dynamics of the carbon cycle and its interplay with the climate system, offering insights into how our planet has responded to climate perturbations throughout its history. During geologic hyperthermal events, carbon cycle models are employed to trace the trajectory of carbon emissions and establish a connection between the emission trajectory and changes in the Earth's surface environment. To date, the prevalent method to estimate the carbon emission rate relies on coupling the carbon cycle modeling and proxy reconstructions. Most previous studies employ a forward methodology, i.e., they force the model with an array of predefined carbon injection scenarios and select the one that produces the best fit to one or more specific proxy-derived records (e.g., atmospheric pCO 2 , sea surface pH, and calcite compensation depth) as the optimal solution. However, this forward method has two potential disadvantages. First, it can be computationally expensive, particularly when tens of thousands of scenarios need to be conducted to find the best solution. Second, it might not yield the best injection trajectory if none of the predefined carbon emission curves represents the realistic emission curve. Hence, an inverse model that can reconstruct the carbon emission trajectory directly from the record/records is urgently needed. In this study, building upon the Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir (LOSCAR) Model (Zeebe, 2012), we develop an interactive carbon cycle model (named iLOSCAR) using the open-source Python language and include two options, a forward model and an inverse model. The forward model replicates the original LOSCAR model, while the inverse model calculates the emission trajectory constrained by the proxy records in a single run. Both models are accessible via a web-based interface, which allows users to interactively tune model parameters and conduct experiments. In this paper, we present the details of iLOSCAR, including model structure and derivation of key equations. We then validate iLOSCAR's performance through an identical twin test and model intercomparison. We also apply it to a climatic perturbation event to diagnose features of the emission pattern that were overlooked in previous studies. Finally, we discuss the possible directions for model's future development. • The iLOSCAR model, an extension of the classical LOSCAR model, is introduced. • The model is capable of replicating the forward mode from the original LOSCAR model. • The model can derive reliable reconstructions of carbon emission trajectories inversely from proxy records for the geologic hyperthermal events. • The model features an interactive web interface, enabling users to dynamically adjust parameters and conduct scenario-based experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper increases by around 30% the sample of atoll reef islands studied from a shoreline change perspective, and covers an under-studied geographical area, i.e. the French Tuamotu Archipelago. It brings new irrefutable evidences on the persistence of reef islands over the last decades, as 77% of the 111 study islands exhibited areal stability while 15% and 8% showed expansion and contraction, respectively. This paper also addresses a key research gap by interpreting the major local drivers controlling recent shoreline and island change, i.e. tropical cyclones and seasonal swells, sediment supply by coral reefs and human activities. The 1983 tropical cyclones had contrasting impacts, depending on the shoreline indicator considered. While they generally caused a marked retreat of the stability line, the base of the beach advanced at some locations, as a result of either sediment reworking or fresh sediment inputs. The post-cyclone fair weather period was characterised by reversed trends indicating island morphological readjustment. Cyclonic waves contributed to island upwards growth, which reached up to 1 m in places, through the transfer of sediments up onto the island surface. However, the steep outer slopes of atolls limited sediment transfers to the reef flat and island system. We found that 57% of the study islands are disturbed by human activities, including ‘rural’ and uninhabited islands. Twenty-six percent of these islands have lost the capacity to respond to ocean-climate related pressures, including the ‘capital’ islands concentrating atolls' population, infrastructures and economic activities, which is preoccupying under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The New Human Condition (NHC) is perhaps the largest cognitive challenge in history to human intelligence and agency and concerns our species' ability to cope with the consequences and responsibilities of being the major driver of planetary change in the twenty-first century ( Pálsson et al., 2013; Holm et al., 2015 ). But despite long held assumptions about intra-disciplinary engagements between its “human” and “physical” branches, geography's weakness as a discipline is that it has yet to gather sufficient momentum to collectively shape and implement practical and sustainable climate change policies and actions (Castree, 2014a). However, by considering together the heuristic values of the concepts of the Anthropocene and Planetary Boundaries, the Anglo-American sphere of geography recognizes in either ironic, or unconscious manners that a new strand of environmental determinism (discredited by geographical thought and practice in the early twentieth century) has re-emerged to elide the role of human agency and broadly dominate the discussion of climate change. Mike Hulme (2011, 247) states that “climate determinism” is “a form of analysis and prediction in which climate is first extracted from the matrix of interdependencies that shape human life within the physical world”. Within this discourse it is often the biophysical sphere that is employed to explain the course of human behavior; consequently, this dominating perspective threatens to skew our predictions and understandings of future societies, cultures, climates and destinies. Climate change will certainly constrain human agency, but it also creates the potential for geography to play to its intra and inter disciplinary strengths and begin discussing and addressing human-environmental dilemmas in practical and realistic ways; and secondly, seize the climate change crisis as an opportunity to study where, why and for whom global environmental change matters. Firstly, this paper considers a theoretical balance between the NHC, the Anthropocene and Planetary Boundaries as a way forward for geography to begin addressing the common dilemma of climate change. Within this consideration it engages Anne Buttimer's geographical translation of Martin Heidegger's lebenswelt as a dimension of the NHC. Secondly, the paper discusses how GeoHumanities and GIScience integrations with phenomenology, the digital and environmental humanities and social media generated “Big-Data” can explore the perceptual scales and scopes of the NHC/Anthropocene/Planetary Boundaries conceptual triad. Lastly, it argues that such integrations are salient to the study of emerging Smart City Lifeworlds as a means to engage the increasing urban agencies of global climate change driven by the vagaries of the human condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the dilemma of global climate change that we have presented ourselves with in the twenty-first century and beyond, many researchers express despair at the ability of humans and societies to change behavior. The paper identifies how global humanity at individual, institutional, and governmental levels have addressed life-threatening dangers in the recent past and begun processes of long-term corrective action. The paper thus discusses global social transformations from the recent past in regards to tobacco use and HIV/AIDS, to think about how Hannah Arendt's concept of the Polis detailed in The Human Condition (1958) may be engaged to address the human dimensions of climate change. As an output of the Andrew W. Mellon European Observatory of the New Human Condition, this paper's focus is commensurate with the thrust of this special issue of Global and Planetary Change which considers climate change to be more of a crisis in the human condition than an environmental problem. Arendt's concept of the Polis provides a framework for a better understanding of change in behavior, preference and motivation. We argue that her perspectives are central to developing multi and inter-disciplinary humanities, social science, science and business perspectives to mobilize collective human action towards adapting to and mitigating the social and environmental threats of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper briefly reviews the physical and human geography of the Kamchatka region and summarises previous research on Holocene climate dynamics. We provide context for the rest of the Special Issue of the Journal Global and Planetary Change entitled ‘Holocene climate change in Kamchatka’, the primary focus of which is the use of lake sediment records for palaeoclimatic inferences. In this paper an additional perspective from ongoing tree ring, ice core and borehole temperature reconstructions illustrates that the Kamchatka region is rich in paleoclimatic proxies. The period of the last 200 years is sufficiently covered by the proxy information, including reconstructions with annual resolution. In this period the tree-rings, ice cores, boreholes, and glacier fluctuations recorded a 1 °C warming and a general glacier retreat, i.e. the transition from the Little Ice Age climate to the modern one. Although the proxies have different resolution, accuracy and seasonality in general they demonstrate a coherent picture of environmental changes in the last two centuries. The tree ring and ice core records are up to four-six hundred years long and they provide information on annual to decadal variability of summer temperature, accumulation processes, volcanic eruptions and lahar activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Knowledge of the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of critical importance for understanding the climate changes over the past millennium. However, the data associated with the extents and chronologies of TP LIA moraines are highly dispersed in literature. Lack of systematic integration of these data hampers us to further understand the nature of the LIA, especially from a perspective of whole TP. The paper reviews multiple types of dating on LIA moraines to examine the timing and nature of the LIA on the TP. These include ages of radiocarbon 14C, lichenometry, and cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN), by which we can cross-date the same or morphostratigraphically similar landforms. LIA moraines on the TP are usually present a few hundred to thousand meters beyond the contemporary glaciers. The morphological and stratigraphic evidence indicates multiple periods of glacier advance during the last millennium (LIA). At present, available chronology evidence allows to fully compare the timing of the LIA maximum extents. The glaciers reached and retreated from their LIA maximum extents by an asynchronous pattern between different parts of the TP. The majority of glaciers advanced to their LIA maximum extents at late-14th and early-14th century on the southern and northwestern TP, respectively. The glaciers retreated from their LIA maximum extents during 16th to early-18th, late-14th to early-15th and early-16th century on the southern, northwestern, and northeastern TP, respectively. In addition, the glacier advance period of late-18th to early-19th centuries and retreat period of late-19th century are common on the whole TP. Comparison with ice core records suggests that on the TP, the glacier fluctuations responded more strongly to temperature than to precipitation. By comparison of the LIA chronologies from a global perspective, this paper also concludes that the LIA maximum extents occurred commonly earlier on the TP than in North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere regions, despite of the variability in the timing of LIA maximum extents on the TP and in the North Atlantic regions. Further, more chronology programs, especially in the central TP, are necessarily needed to improve our understanding of the LIA glacier fluctuations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The fluvial network of the Southern Pyrenees is an example of transverse drainage systems in young (alpine) mountain belts and it features well preserved fluvial terrace records. Some of the major Southern Pyrenees tributary rivers have been studied previously and have some age controls on their fluvial terrace levels. We extend these records to one of the largest streams in the Southern Pyrenees, the Segre River. In this paper, we present new GIS data, field observations and exposure ages obtained from in situ produced terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (10Be). The focus of this paper is set to unravel the relative impact of climatic controls on the formation of the Segre terrace staircase in the Southern Pyrenees foreland (Ebro Basin). The Pleistocene terrace staircase of the Segre River is built up by seven major terrace levels, which range from 112 to 3m above the present-day active channel. The prominent upper and middle terraces TQ1, TQ2, TQ3 and TQ4 have been sampled for 10Be exposure dating. Exposure ages have been calculated using Monte Carlo parameter simulations. Additionally, we applied a Profile Rejuvenation method accounting for variable 10Be inheritance in the samples, and which yielded comparable results. The Monte Carlo results show Middle to Late Pleistocene exposure ages for TQ1: 202ka (MIS 7), TQ2: 139ka (MIS 6), TQ3: 100ka (MIS 5), and TQ4: 62ka (MIS 4), involving denudation rates of 3–8mmka−1. The results indicate that the abandonment of Segre paleo-floodplains and the change from aggradation to predominant incision is related with Middle to Late Pleistocene cold-warm climate transitions (or early stages of interglacial periods). Major floodplain aggradation appears to be linked with intense deglaciation at the end of MIS 8, MIS 6, and MIS 4. The exposure of terrace TQ3 (MIS 5) indicates that terrace formation might also occur during relatively warm isotope stages with sufficient climate instability. On a regional scale, the staircase morphology at the Segre River shows similarities with adjacent fluvial systems in the Southern Pyrenees. In addition, previously published chronologies for these systems are consistent with the timing of aggradation and terrace abandonment. Both, staircase morphology and chronology point to regionally synchronous phases of floodplain aggradation and river incision, which seem to be triggered by climate variability and Pleistocene glaciations in the Pyrenees since the Mid Pleistocene Climatic Revolution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Murray–Darling Basin is Australia''s food bowl and home to many iconic water bodies that are culturally and ecologically highly valued. The recent Millennium Drought (from mid-1990s to 2009) was the most severe hydrological drought since records started in the late 19th century. It severely impacted on the basin and for many acted as a wake-up call. To address the ongoing declines in water resources and environmental conditions and to prepare the region for climate change, Australia''s Governments are currently attempting to introduce a new comprehensive, and integrated approach to the management of the basin''s water resources. In this paper, long-term time series of climate, hydrological and environmental data are used to analyze how compounding stresses have gradually affected the hydrological system and its services. Major hydroclimatic stresses considered in this paper include salinity, water use, droughts, and climate change. Other, more localized or minor stresses exist (groundwater extraction, farm dams, afforestation, bush fires, cyanobacterial blooms and pollutants) and are reviewed more briefly. The history of water policy and planning shows that Government actions have been strongly influential on the basin. A shift in the strategic goals from water development to the protection and restoration of environmental assets is noticeable since the mid 1990s. Median climate change projections by 2030 indicate smaller reductions in rainfall and runoff than those observed during the recent Millennium Drought, but have a relatively high uncertainty attached to them. The use of regional approaches to reduce that uncertainty, such as statistical downscaling, points to a sizeable decline in rainfall by the end of the century. Most climate projections used for planning consider greenhouse emission scenarios that have smaller global emission trends than the one observed over the last decade. Other, ‘less optimistic’ scenarios have to be considered for long-term water planning and food security. Compounding all these stresses, is the naturally high hydroclimatic variability of this semi-arid region, that may have been insufficiently considered during previous water development and planning efforts. Successful water planning will need to balance cultural and ecological values with food production, account for high natural variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, learn from past mistakes and be cognizant of future hydrological changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper concerns ice dams and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Karakoram. Some 146 events are identified, including 30 major disasters. Large downstream populations and major infrastructure are threatened. Risk factors differ from recent reports of other Himalayan GLOFs associated with glacier recession and global warming. Ice dams are largely or entirely active ice, put in place by advancing glaciers. Climate change is a factor, but the ice cover in the Karakoram has been sustained, and even some increase in mass. Surge-type glaciers comprise or affect~70% of our inventory. The most frequent, large GLOFs come from local clusters of glaciers in five sub-basins, given special attention here. In four there were new ice dams formed since 2008 and two generated dangerous GLOFs. An urgent need arises to track short-term ice and lake behavior and how surge dynamics may be involved. Satellite images and DEMs are employed in cross-correlation feature tracking and elevation change respectively. The glaciers of interest all exhibit irregular movement, including recent advances, but with great variability and no clear relation to climatic fluctuations. • Study updates inventory of ice dams and related GLOFs in the Karakoram. • Study reports recent evidence of surface displacement and elevation changes of glaciers involved in ice dam generation. • Surge-type glaciers comprise or affect ~70% of inventory of ice dams and related GLOFs. • Four glaciers formed new ice dams since 2008, two (Kyagar, Khurdopin) generating dangerous GLOFs. • The studied glaciers exhibit irregular movement, but with great variability and no clear relation to climatic fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain lakes are often situated in protected natural areas, a feature that leads to their role as sentinels of global environmental change. Despite variations in latitude, mountain lakes share many features, including their location in catchments with steep topographic gradients, cold temperatures, high incident solar and ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and prolonged ice and snow cover. These characteristics, in turn, affect mountain lake ecosystem structure, diversity, and productivity. The lakes themselves are mostly small, and up until recently, have been characterized as oligotrophic. This paper provides a review and update of the growing body of research that shows that sediments in remote mountain lakes archive regional and global environmental changes, including those linked to climate change, altered biogeochemical cycles, and changes in dust composition and deposition, atmospheric fertilization, and biological manipulations. These archives provide an important record of global environmental change that pre-dates typical monitoring windows. Paleolimnological research at strategically selected lakes has increased our knowledge of interactions among multiple stressors and their synergistic effects on lake systems. Lakes from transects across steep climate (i.e., temperature and effective moisture) gradients in mountain regions show how environmental change alters lakes in close proximity, but at differing climate starting points. Such research in particular highlights the impacts of melting glaciers on mountain lakes. The addition of new proxies, including DNA-based techniques and advanced stable isotopic analyses, provides a gateway to addressing novel research questions about global environmental change. Recent advances in remote sensing and continuous, high-frequency, limnological measurements will improve spatial and temporal resolution and help to add records to spatial gaps including tropical and southern latitudes. Mountain lake records provide a unique opportunity for global scale assessments that provide knowledge necessary to protect the Earth system. • Mountain lakes are sensitive recorders of global environmental change. • Paleolimnology has benefited from technological advances, with many applications to alpine environments. • Gaps in spatial coverage are evident in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, where water resource issues are a concern. • Paleolimnology can be used to identify threats to the quantity and quality of mountain reservoirs. • We highlight the complexities of ecosystem responses to the many, interconnected stressors of global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As reported in previous studies, global warming has caused a clear uptick in dryland areas since the 1950s. Meanwhile, the accelerated expansion of drylands has become particularly evident over the past 40 years, with dry/wet patterns showing significant differences prior to and after 1980. This paper uses the Precipitation/Potential evaporation (P/PET) index to analyze changes occurring in the dry/wet structure of various spatial and temporal scales during 1948–2008. The results show the emergence of complex aridity changes on a regional scale. While aridity generally decreased in the drylands of Asia during 1948–2008, the change in aridity was opposite in the drylands of the American and African continents between 1948 and 1979 and 1980–2008. Specifically, drylands in the American continent showed a wetting tendency during 1948–1979 and a drying tendency during 1980–2008, whereas drylands in the African continent underwent significant drying during 1948–1979 followed by subtle wetting in 1980–2008. Even though rapid warming since the 1980s has become an increasingly important cause of the recent global drying trend, especially in East and Central Asia, the changes in aridity in the American and African drylands is attributable to natural variabilities in precipitation associated with multi-decadal surface sea temperature changes, along with large-scale circulation patterns. • Dry/wet patterns in dryland areas show significant differences in the decades prior to and after 1980. • The change in aridity was opposite in American and African drylands between 1948–1979 and 1980–2008. • Aridity changes in American and African drylands are closely related to multi-decadal changes in surface sea temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Vegetation-atmosphere interaction is thought to have significant impacts on modulating regional climate. The main purpose of this paper is to reveal the impact of vegetation change on regional climate simulation over Eastern China. Therefore, we have performed three 30-year simulations from 1982 to 2011 with the WRF model coupled with the Noah land surface model as follows: a control experiment with climatology green vegetation fraction (GVF) (CTL), a sensitive experiment with WRF default climatology GVF (CLMV), and a sensitive experiment with dynamic vegetation (DYNV). The climatology difference between the CTL and CLMV experiment points out that during 1982–2011 over Eastern China, the increase of vegetation causes the decrease of temperature; on the other hand, the increase of temperature often corresponds to the reduction of vegetation. In the meantime, the increase/decrease in GVF is quite consistent with the simulated increase/decrease in precipitation, which is caused by both circulations and water vapor distributions at lower levels. The difference in the temperature trend between the CTL and DYNV experiment is almost opposite to that between the DYNV and GVF trend, which means that the decreased/increased vegetation will increase/decrease the surface air temperature. However, the trend of precipitation variation shows no clear relation with that of GVF. In response to GVF change, the results show that in the vegetation-climate feedback the moisture feedback is dominant over the radiation and momentum feedback. Significant decrease in GVF and LAI is detected across the East China, which leads to the decrease in the latent heat flux and increase in the sensible heat flux. For extremes and heat waves, it is shown that DYNV leads to better stimulation on the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), warm spell days (WSDI), heat wave days (HWNY) and the averaged heat wave duration (HWDU) than CTL does over most of the Southeast China, although it may introduce some new biases in the Eastern coastal regions as well as the Northeastern China. Highlights • Dynamic green vegetation fraction (GVF) data was used for simulation. • Studied the effect of vegetation variation on climate extremes. • The results are also compared with actual observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The concept of "Carbonate Factory" was introduced to describe areas of carbonate production and accumulation. In this paper, the "Ooid Factories" is used to analyze extensive Griesbachian (Triassic) oolite deposits in South China that, along with microbialites and lime-mud deposits from different carbonate depositional environments. Late Permian tropical shallow-water skeletal factories (dominant by calcareous algae, sponge, and other associated organisms) collapsed in pace with the most severe mass extinction event, and were rapidly replaced by mud-mound factories (microbialite and lime-mud deposits) and subsequent ooid factories in shallow-water circumstances of Griesbachian. Meantime, temporal nutrient-rich and high-temperature conditions probably delayed re-establishment of tropical shallow-water skeletal factories. As an elementary unit of ooid factories, Lower Triassic oolites have diagnostic characteristics of ooid fabrics (alternatively dark- and light-colored laminae), size ranges (1–5 mm), and grain compositions (pure ooids, and only a few gastropod and bivalve fragments). Continuous aggradational and progradational oolite sequences caused extensive oolite accumulations that significantly contribute to the development of platform architecture with the collaboration of mud-mound factories (mainly line-mud deposits) in South China, through the evolution of low-angle or homoclinal ramps in the early Griesbachian to distally steepened ramps or flat-topped shelves in the late Griesbachian. Moreover, ooid factories also developed in Western Tethyan, Cimmerian, and Arabian carbonate platforms within low latitudes of the Tethyan Ocean during the Griesbachian. It is suggested that extreme hothouse climate with (seasonal) dry conditions in low latitudes significantly facilitated the extensive carbonate production of ooid factories at that time due to the strong linear relationship between surface seawater temperature and carbonate saturation state. Highlights • Our study focuses on "ooid factory" and introduces its characteristics during the earliest Triassic. • Tropical shallow water (skeletal) factory was replaced by ooid and mud-mound factories after the latest Permian mass extinction event. • Ooid factories were widely distributed in low latitudes during the Griesbachian. • Ooid and associated mud-mound factories have a great influence on early-stage platform architecture. • The high temperature of surface seawater and arid climate may relate to the operation of ooid factories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The effects of climate changes on biotic expansion or divergence is a widely debated topic. This discussion is particularly relevant for northern Amazonia where patches of open vegetation environments that harbor high endemic and specialized species are present in a matrix of tall closed canopy forest. This paper presents the depositional chronology and evolution of an 8.7-m thick stabilized fluvial and eolian sediment profile in a sandy plain substrate that underpins the largest open vegetation enclave in northern Amazonia. Three depositional units were identified using optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon ages coupled with grain size, magnetic susceptibility, and reflectance analyses. A lower unit of coarse fluvial silt deposited between 53 and 28 ka is overlain unconformably by a 5-m thick middle unit of fine eolian sand deposited at high accumulation rates between the Last Glacial Maximum (23–19 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 18.1–14.7 ka) when persistent and long-lasting shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the Southern Hemisphere promoted dry and windy conditions in northern South America. An upper ~2-m thick unit was deposited when the climate became wetter after HS1, promoting the formation of soils that support open vegetation habitats. This study indicates that abrupt millennial-scale climate events can induce significant changes in the Amazonian landscape, which in turn play an essential role in the distribution and diversification of specialized biota. Highlights • An open vegetation habitat in northern Amazon formed after abrupt climate events. • Persistent southern shifts of the ITCZ during the LGM and HS1 favored dune-building. • Dunes underpin white sand vegetation and cerrado habitats which harbor endemic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The majority of assessments of future heat-related health risk are based on projections of heat hazards superimposed solely on current socioeconomic conditions, thus neglecting the potential contribution of drivers of heat stress risk other than climate change. Partly to address this drawback, the climate change research community has developed a new scenario framework, made up of distinct sets of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The few assessments of future heat-related health risk that have employed this new framework have focused on changes in population exposure but have often not accounted for future populations' vulnerability. In this paper, we combine European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with Representative Concentration Pathways to provide spatially explicit European projections of heat-related health risk that account for multiple changes in both socioeconomic and climatic conditions. In doing so, we also address the challenge of accounting for projections of determinants of vulnerability under varying levels of socioeconomic development. Results reveal that the proportion of the European population at very high risk of heat stress will show a steady increase – from 0.4% currently to 20.3%, 32.6%, or 48.4% in 2050 depending on the scenario combination – unless substantial political changes occur rapidly and steadily shift the current socioeconomic development pathway towards sustainability. Ambitious mitigation policies associated with rapid technological progress to enhance human capital could also moderate future heat-related health challenges. Such challenges are unevenly spread across Europe, with the Mediterranean region and Scandinavia being respectively the most and the least impacted regions. Future heat-related health challenges are substantially influenced by varying levels of socioeconomic development, primarily through changes in vulnerability – changes in population exposure being only of secondary importance. The former may even have a more significant impact on future heat stress risk than climate change, particularly in the British Isles and in the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, there is an undeniable necessity to consider the future state of vulnerability – and its uncertainties under varying socioeconomic scenarios – when assessing future heat-related health challenges and designing health adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid, or abrupt, climate change is regarded as a change in the climate system to a new state following the crossing of a threshold. It generally occurs at a rate exceeding that of the change in the underlying cause. Episodes of rapid climate change abound in the recent geological past (defined here as the interval between the last glacial maximum, dated to approximately 20,000years ago, and the present). Rapid climate changes are known to have occurred over time periods equal to or even less than a human lifespan: moreover, their effects on the global system are sufficiently large to have had significant societal impacts. The potential for similar events to occur in the future provides an important impetus for investigating the nature and causes of rapid climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of rapid climate change and an introduction to this special issue, which presents results generated by the palaeoclimatic component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council''s rapid climate change programme, called RAPID. The papers in the special issue employ palaeoclimatic proxy data-sets obtained from marine, ice core and terrestrial archives to reconstruct rapid climate change during the last glacial cycle, its subsequent termination and the ensuing Holocene interglacial; some papers also report new attempts to match the palaeoclimate data to hypothesised causes through numerical modelling. The results confirm the importance of freshwater forcing in triggering changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the close links between MOC and rapid climate change. While advancing our understanding of these linkages, the RAPID research has highlighted the need for further research in order to elucidate more specific details of the mechanisms involved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change in the Mediterranean region cannot be understood without taking into account changes in the Mediterranean Sea, which is an important source of moisture and heat for the Mediterranean climate system. Many research papers have been published in the last two decades increasing our knowledge about long-term trends and inter-annual variability of temperature and salinity in the Western Mediterranean. Although recent changes have been better documented, there remain uncertainties because different results are obtained depending on the period of time analyzed or the geographic region selected. This paper analyses the regional, seasonal and decadal variability of sea surface temperature in the Western Mediterranean basins (Northern (Ligurian Sea and Gulf of Lions), Balearic, Algerian and Alboran) by means of thermal satellite images. Monthly data from the PO.DAAC (Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center) have been processed for the period 1985–2007. Results show an averaged warming linear trend of 0.03°C/yr. This rate is higher during the spring (0.06°C/yr) in all the basins and the highest values were registered in the Northern basin in June. The study suggests that an early warming of the Sea is occurring in all the basins during the spring, with an increment of 0.5–1°C in the mean SST of April, May and June over the two decades studied. The analysis of thermal anomalies confirms the warming trend with a dominance of negative anomalies during 1985–1996 and a dominance of positive anomalies during the last decade (1997–2007). Intense anomalies are more frequent in the Northern basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study was conceived to evaluate the global scientific output of climate change research over the past 18years and to assess the characteristics of the research patterns, tendencies, and methods in the papers. Data were based on the online version of Science Citation Index Expanded from 1992 to 2009. Articles referring to climate change were assessed by distribution of source countries, source institutes, paper titles, author keywords, KeyWords Plus, abstracts, and the most cited articles in these years. By synthetic analysis of the four kinds of keywords, it was concluded that the items “temperature”, “environment”, “precipitation”, “greenhouse gas”, “risk”, and “biodiversity” will be the foci of climate change research in the 21st century, while “model”, “monitoring”, and “remote sensing” will continue to be the leading research methods. A novel method, “phylogeography”, may have a strong application potential in the near future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous: there are seasons, regions, and time periods with negligible or even negative air temperature trends (frequently referred to as warming holes). This paper presents a novel method enabling a proper localization of specific trend events, such as periods of warming holes, of a particularly strong warming, and of rapid transitions of trend amplitudes during the calendar year. The method consists in analyzing trends for periods of a given length (10 to 90 days) that are sliding over the year with a one day step. This allows a detailed description of the annual cycle of trends. The analysis is conducted for daily maximum and minimum temperature at 135 stations in Europe in 1961–2000. Despite an overall warming in Europe, several warming holes are uncovered during various parts of the year, not only in autumn when a warming hole has already been reported. The autumn warming hole concentrates in Eastern Europe, but it changes its strength and spatial extent: it spreads into Western Europe in September and retreats to Eastern Europe in November when it intensifies especially north of the Black Sea. Three shorter warming holes are detected: In February and March, cooling occurs in the Eastern Mediterranean and Iceland, while in early April, cooling is detected over Central, Southern, and Southeastern Europe. Another large-scale cooling occurs in Central, Northern, and Northwestern Europe in mid-June. The periods of strongest warming occur around the middle of January in Eastern Europe, in early March over almost entire Europe, and in mid-May and early August mainly over Central and Western Europe. Cluster analysis of stations with respect to the annual cycles of trends demonstrates a spatial coherence of the trends; the lack of spatial coherence points to local peculiarities or data problems of individual stations. The method of sliding seasons proves to be much more effective in the identification and localization of notable trend events than the ordinary approach of trend detection for fixed calendar seasons and/or months. Highlights • Annual course of temperature trends in Europe in 1961–2000 using "moving trends" • "Subseasons" of 10–90 days shifted by 1 day during the calendar year • Shorter subseasons = higher temporal and spatial variability of temperature trends • Greatest warming in January in NE Europe due to high interannual variability • "Warming holes" (i.e. cooling) in autumn in Central&E Europe, in June in N Europe [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies on long-term fluctuations in glacier volume and mass are crucial for understanding past climate change. In this paper, we utilized Picea schrenkiana to develop a 525-year chronology of latewood blue intensity (LWBI) in the Tianshan Mountains. Relying on temperature as the main controlling factor for tree growth and glacier mass balance (GMB) variations, the LWBI chronology was used to reconstruct the summer temperature (JJA, R 2 adj = 47%) and the annual glacier mass balance (annual GMB, R 2 adj = 39%) in the Tianshan Mountains over the past 400 years. The reconstruction results show that the rapid warming since 1974 has caused the Tianshan No.1 glacier (TS No.1) to experience an unprecedented melting trend within the last four centuries. It is disturbing that the glacier still remain in an ablation state for the next 80 years under both representative concentration paths (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which will exacerbate the adverse environmental impacts of glacial hazards. Our study provides a continuous record for glacier research in high mountains Asian and contributes to a more detailed assessment of glacier and climate change in this region. The spatial correlation analysis of the PC1 and the ERA5 grid temperature dataset after the original (a), detrended (b) and first-order difference (c) calculations in the verification period (1950–2005), all insignificant correlations (P > 0.05) were masked out, where A represent the Tianshan Mountains (this study), B represent Central Europe Alps (Büntgen et al., 2006), C represent East Asia (Davi et al., 2002), D represent Dunde ice core (Thompson et al., 2006), and E represent Guliya ice core (Thompson et al., 1997). Comparison of Tianshan temperature reconstruction (PC1) with other MXD-based temperature reconstructions, where (d) is the comparison between PC1 and Central European Alps summer (June to September) temperature reconstruction, (e) is the comparison between PC1 and East Asian Japanese warm season (May to September) temperature reconstruction, and (f) is the comparison between PC1 and Northern Hemisphere summer (June to August) temperature reconstruction (Schneider et al., 2015). (g) is the comparative between the PC1 and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV, Wang et al., 2017). Comparison of TS No.1 GMB reconstruction with ice core accumulation data, where (h) is the comparison between TS No.1 GMB reconstruction and Dunde ice core water equivalent net balance (accumulation, 5-year average), (i) is the comparison between TS No.1 GMB reconstruction and Guliya ice core water equivalent net balance (accumulation, 10-year average). All comparison series are Z-score normalized and low-pass filtered with a step size of 10 years (ice core accumulation data are 5 year) to achieve low-frequency fluctuations. [Display omitted] • A 525-year latewood blue intensity (LWBI) chronology was developed to study glacial dynamics for the Tianshan Mountains. • The results showed that the last 20 years to be outside the range of natural variability of the last 400 years. • The Tianshan No. 1 glacier will continue to melt rapidly in the next 80 years under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we provide a novel insight into the driving forces of migration towards OECD countries. In contrast to the existing literature, we show that not only does current temperature affect the decision to migrate towards OECD countries, but so too does expected temperature at origin. First, we find that expected temperature at origin in 2030 and 2050 significantly affects migration flows towards OECD countries today. This result holds even when we control for current income and temperature as well as expected income. Second, we find that the agricultural pathway is important for the migration decision. According to this theory, countries who rely more heavily on agricultural experience larger migration flows, because climatic conditions have a larger impact. In contrast to the related literature, we find that the expectation about climate and agricultural variables at origin matter. • We provide a novel insight into the driving forces of migration towards OECD countries. • We show that current and expected temperature affect the decision to migrate. • The agricultural pathway is important for the migration decision. • Expectation about climate and agricultural variables matter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports on forest decline, changes in species composition and the distribution of forests in response to changes in climate and land use are increasing worldwide. Temperate forests are largely dominated by two tree families: Pinaceae and Fagaceae. These two families have distinct functional properties and different responses to environmental factors. Several local and regional assessments, particularly in Europe, have found that species of Fagaceae are invading areas previously dominated by Pinaceae. The main aim of this synthesis study is to analyze the relative dynamics of Pinaceae and Fagaceae species in temperate forests around the world, with the following specific objectives: (1) establish if there is a consistent directional substitution of Pinaceae by Fagaceae worldwide; and (2) determine whether these directional changes are associated with specific climatic conditions or certain geographic regions, reflecting differences in historical forest management and land use. A bibliographic review was performed and 51 papers were found that met the search criteria, including a total of 121 case studies in which the relative dynamics of Pinaceae and Fagaceae were evaluated. Our results show that the relative abundance of Fagaceae increased in 71% of cases (P → F dynamics), whereas Pinaceae relative abundance increased in 17% of cases (F → P) and 12% of cases did not show clear changes. Increases of Fagaceae relative to Pinaceae were less clear in areas where vegetation dynamics were driven by natural disturbances. Our results indicate a widespread increase in dominance of Fagaceae species at the expense of Pinaceae across northern temperate forests, with the exception of Eastern North America. The potential implications for ecosystem function and forest resilience under ongoing climate change are large and clearly deserve further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite rising calls for social science knowledge in the face of climate change, too few sociologists have been engaged in the conversations about how we have arrived at such perilous climatic circumstances, or how society can change course. With its attention to the interactive dimensions of social order between individuals, social norms, cultural systems and political economy, the discipline of sociology is uniquely positioned to be an important leader in this conversation. In this paper I suggest that in order to understand and respond to climate change we need two kinds of imagination: 1) to see the relationships between human actions and their impacts on earth's biophysical system (ecological imagination) and 2) to see the relationships within society that make up this environmentally damaging social structure (sociological imagination). The scientific community has made good progress in developing our ecological imagination but still need to develop a sociological imagination. The application of a sociological imagination allows for a powerfully reframing of four key problems in the current interdisciplinary conversation on climate change: why climate change is happening, how we are being impacted, why we have failed to successfully respond so far, and how we might be able to effectively do so . I visit each of these four questions describing the current understanding and show the importance of the sociological imagination and other insights from the field of sociology. I close with reflections on current limitations in sociology's potential to engage climate change and the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the extent and usefulness of reviewing existing literature on the significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources with emphasis on examples from the Olifants River basin. Here, the existing literature were extensively reviewed, with discussions centred mainly on the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and challenges in modelling climate change impacts on groundwater resources. Since in the hydrological cycle, the hydrological components such as evaporation, temperature, precipitation, and groundwater, are the major drivers of the present and future climate, a detailed discussion is done on the impact of climate change on these hydrological components to determine to what extent the hydrological cycle has already been affected as a result of climate change. The uncertainties, constraints and limitations in climate change research have also been reviewed. In addition to the research gaps discussed here, the emphasis on the need of extensive climate change research on the continent, especially as climate change impacts on groundwater, is discussed. Overall, the importance of conducting further research in climate change, understanding the significance of the impact of climate change on water resources such as groundwater, and taking actions to effectively meet the adaptation needs of the people, emerge as an important theme in this review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent ~ 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and the Earth system may respond to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available for such a diagram and new methodological developments in the study of the interaction between internal and forced variability over a wide range of timescales, we give a positive answer to this question. In addition, we review alternative approaches to the spectral decomposition and pose some challenges for a more detailed quantification of climate variability. • Climate variability covering timescales from years to millions of years is reviewed. • This variability arises from interaction of internal processes and external forcing. • We give an update of the climate spectrum by Mitchell (1976). • Modern approaches to data analysis and to the theory of forced systems are reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience enhancement and effectively reducing vulnerability to natural hazards in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A staircase of terraces was identified in the mountainous (middle) reaches of the Dunajec River valley, West Carpathians, providing insights into the record of climatic and tectonic mechanisms involved in terrace formation. The alluvial sediments of six terraces (T2–T7) were dated and used to determine the mechanisms of river terrace formation in this uplifting area during the Late Quaternary. Dating by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) providing a basis for a chronostratigraphic scheme, with ages ranging from 158.9 to 5.38 ka. The resulting ages reveal alluvial sediments deposited during MIS6, MIS4, MIS3, MIS2 and MIS1. The formation of terrace staircase is attributed to an alternation of progressive river incision and sediment aggradation in response to climatically induced fluctuations in discharge and sediment supply. The production of straths, which become bases for terraces, occurred during climate transitions as well as during warm stages. Vertical aggradation of the terrace alluvium took place predominantly during the cold and dry glacials, although interglacial alluviation was also recorded. River incision occurred during warming and cooling transitions, and also during interglacial or interstadial stages. The valley down-cutting ceased during glacial periods due to increased sediment input resulting in aggradation. This paper outlines the complex climato-tectonic controls on the terrace staircase genesis on the scale of 10 3 –10 5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the ‘myths of nature’. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic eruptions eject largeamounts of materials into the atmosphere, which can have an impact on climate. In particular, the sulphur dioxide gas released in the stratosphere leads to aerosol formation that reflects part of the incoming solar radiation, thereby affecting the climate energy balance. In this review paper, we analyse the regional climate imprints of large tropical volcanic explosive eruptions. For this purpose, we focus on the impact on three major climatic modes, located in the Atlantic (the North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: AMO) and Pacific (the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) sectors. We present an overview of the chain of events that contributes to modifying the temporal variability of these modes. Our literature review is complemented by new analyses based on observations of the instrumental era as well as on available proxy records and climate model simulations that cover the last millennium. We show that the impact of volcanic eruptions of the same magnitude or weaker than 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption on the NAO and ENSO is hard to detect, due to the noise from natural climate variability. There is however a clear impact of the direct radiative forcing resulting from tropical eruptions on the AMO index both in reconstructions and climate model simulations of the last millennium, while the impact on the ocean circulation remains model-dependent. To increase the signal to noise ratio and better evaluate the climate response to volcanic eruptions, improved reconstructions of these climatic modes and of the radiative effect of volcanic eruptions are required on a longer time frame than the instrumental era. Finally, we evaluate climate models' capabilities to reproduce the observed and anticipated impacts and mechanisms associated with volcanic forcing, and assess their potential for seasonal to decadal prediction. We find a very large spread in the simulated responses across the different climate models. Dedicated experimental designs and analyses are therefore needed to decipher the cause for this large uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporary streams are unique, sensitive and threatened fluvial systems. They periodically dry up and contribute to biodiversity by supporting different species. In Mediterranean regions, human pressures and climate change increase the duration of the dry period for the streams. We analysed the annual and seasonal trends on streamflow data from 14 gauging stations on temporary streams on the island of Mallorca. We used a Mann–Kendall trend test on data from 1977 to 2009 (33 years) to identify trends in discharge, number of days with water, accumulated precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and land cover change. Results show a general decreasing trend of streamflow during spring and summer, with flows reduced between 4 and 17% in some basins. Although the inter-annual variability is high for both seasons, the decrease in annual precipitation, the increase in temperature, and the effects of colonization and growth of forests explain the reduction in the number of days with running water. Correlation and elasticity analyses show that precipitation is the main driver for streamflow reduction, but the increase in temperature and land-cover changes also play a significant role in the decreasing of flows. These seasonal changes especially affect the headwaters of the basins, which are located in a mountainous area. The Kendall regional test, applied to the 12 basins considered in the Tramuntana range, reveals a significant decreasing annual trend in the number of days with measured flow. The forest expansion and the warmer conditions cause a higher vegetation water demand, increasing the real evapotranspiration and, consequently, reducing the runoff and thus increasing the losses in the water balance. In addition, the increase in the number of days during which channels and parafluvial habitats are disconnected negatively affects the aquatic habitat. This paper provides the first evidence of a consistent long-term reduction in flow in temporary streams in the Mediterranean region. We highlight the ecological implications of losing water in temporary streams across Mallorca, and we argue the urgent need for conservation plans to protect them from present and future changes and challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climate warmth (hyperthermal) events through deep-time offer prescient insights into how the Earth may respond to present-day warming related to greenhouse gas emissions. This special issue deals with Paleoenvironmental changes across the Mesozoic–Paleogene hyperthermal events and comprises 25 interdisciplinary research articles. In this review paper, we summarise the contents of the special issue, placing it into a wider context, and demonstrate that Mesozoic–Paleogene hyperthermal events were among the most devastating and extreme climate modes in the geological record. Key findings are as follows: (1) Multi-proxy geochemical and sedimentological analyses reveal that widespread deoxygenation of oceans and megalakes was a common accompanying feature of most hyperthermals. (2) Evidence exists for complex linkages between volcanism, warm climate conditions, contemporary carbon cycles, aquatic biogeochemical cycles, wildfire activities, and climate-modulated hydrological and terrestrial weathering changes operating at seasonal, orbital and/or tectonic timescales. (3) Pronounced and rapid biological turnovers in the ocean during hyperthermals may have been linked to seawater acidification and shifts in nutrient availability, while promoting significant alterations in primary productivity, biological pump and ecosystem structures. Despite these advances, future interdisciplinary studies are needed to deliver a more comprehensive understanding of the nature and mechanism of complex environmental interactions within the Earth system, as well as the internal and external drivers that may have triggered hyperthermal events. • Marine and lacustrine deoxygenation was a common feature of Mesozoic–Paleogene hyperthermal events. • The temporal link is often observed between hyperthermals and Large igneous province emplacement and intense volcanism. • Large-scale greenhouse gas emissions induced strong positive climate feedbacks and global–scale biogeochemical extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of an increase in drought frequency and intensity over the next century are expected to have severe implications for a number of globally important coastal ecosystems. In this paper, we present geochemical data from three sediment cores extracted from the main depositional basins of Lake St Lucia, Africa's largest estuarine system. Lake St Lucia is subject to extreme natural variations in salinity. The sedimentary record documents the evolution of the system from a relatively deep-water, open lagoon to a confined, shallow estuarine lake that today is highly sensitive to changes in freshwater supply. This is particularly evident in the northern portions of the system, where the presence of distinct halite-enriched horizons document episodes of prolonged drought. The lateral persistence of these halite layers, as revealed by seismic profiling, point to a system-wide onset of desiccation associated with a major shift in the regional hydroclimate. The most severe drought events identified, which may have lasted several years, occur at ~ 1100 and 1750 cal year BP, and are associated with known peaks in El Niño frequency and intensity. Our analyses suggest that past cycles of desiccation and hyper-salinity have been controlled by climatic changes related to ENSO intensification. This study provides a valuable new record from a key ENSO-sensitive region of the Southern Hemisphere. Our findings have important relevance for understanding ENSO variability across the Indo-Pacific region and the influence exerted on systems sensitive to changes in moisture balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Located in an arid and semi-arid region of the world, Iran has experienced many extreme flood and drought events in the last and current century. The present study aims to assess the changes in Iran's flood magnitude and drought severity for 1950–2010, with some time span variation in some stations. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend was first applied to assess changes in flood and drought severity data. In addition, to consider the effect of serial correlation, two Pre-Whitening Trend (PWT) tests were also applied. It was observed that the number of stations with statistically significant trends has increased after applying PWT tests. Both increasing and decreasing trends were observed for drought severity and flood magnitude in different climate regions and major basins of Iran using these tests. The increase in flood magnitude and drought severity can be attributed partly to land use changes, an annual rainfall negative trend, a maximum rainfall increasing trend, and inappropriate water resources management policies. The paper indicates a critical situation related to extreme climate change in Iran and the increasing risk of environmental changes in the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper comprises a detailed description of glaciers of the Kaffiøyra region, an area of Svalbard, located in north-western Spitsbergen. The primary objective of this work is to present the essential conditions and characteristics of changes in the dynamics and spatial extent of the glaciers in that region. Most of the research consisted in direct field measurements carried out in 1996–2015, and the investigated changes were mainly related to the mass balance on the Waldemarbreen, the Irenebreen and the Elisebreen. In order to identify the changes of the glaciated area of the studied region, a detailed analysis of the degree of changes in the glaciers' surface area and recession was carried out, starting with the period of their maximum extent in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, i.e. by the end of the Little Ice Age. Statistical analysis of measurement data from 1970 to 2015 enabled the development of a simple empirical formula used to work out the mass balance with a similar accuracy to that achieved using direct methods. The mean annual mass balance of the three analysed glaciers was: ˗0.72 m w.e. in the case of the Waldemarbreen in 1996–2015, − 0.84 m w.e. in the case of the Irenebreen in 2002–2015, and − 0.65 m w.e. in the case of the Elisebreen in 2006–2013. For the Waldemarbreen the change of mass balance with time was estimated to be − 0.040 (± 0.003) m w.e. a − 1 . In the same period for the Irenebreen it was − 0.052 (± 0.024) m w.e. a − 1 . From the time of their maximum reach in the late 19th and early 20th centuries to 2015, the total area of the Kaffiøyra region valley glaciers decreased by about 43.0% on average. Glaciers in the region retreated at an average rate of 12 ma − 1 . The changes of the glaciers' front positions, which make the north-western coast of Spitsbergen, are similar to the changes observed for other Svalbard glaciers of this type. The investigations of the glacier mass balance in the Kaffiøyra region are especially important, being some of only a few long-term mass balance records available regarding Svalbard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y − 1 in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y − 1 ), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO 2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to simulate the magnitude. The ability to simulate the seasonal trend of average storm intensity varies among locations. Within-storm patterns from RCMs exhibit greater variability than from observed records. Comparisons between RCM-historic simulations and RCM projections indicate that there is a large variation in the future changes in storm properties. However, multi-model ensembles of the storm properties suggest that most regions of the United States will experience future changes in storm properties that includes shorter storm duration, longer inter-storm period, and larger average storm intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Northern Caucasus, glacier and climatic variations over the past centuries remain insufficiently documented. In this review, we summarized the high-resolution information on glacier and climate fluctuations in the region for the past millennium and provided a synthesis of these two lines of evidence with respect to regional climate change. The key areas considered in the paper are the Elbrus area, the Teberda and Arkhyz valleys in the Western Caucasus and the Cherek Bezengiisky and Tsey valleys in the Eastern Caucasus, where the most paleoclimatic evidence has been retrieved. We focused on the fluctuation records of the ten glaciers that are best documented. To reconstruct changes in glacier length in the past, we used aerial photos, optical space images, repeated photographs and old maps. The ages of moraines were defined with the help of instrumental records, historical images, old maps, and tree-ring dating. Lichenometry was used as a supplementary tool to determine the relative ages of glacial landforms. We reviewed the collection of control points used for the lichenometric curves and determined the time limit of potential use of this method in the Caucasus to be up to one millennium. High-resolution tree-ring-based hydroclimatic reconstructions in the Northern Caucasus are presented based on the reconstruction of June–September temperature (1595–2012 CE), the mass balance reconstruction of the Garabashi Glacier (1800–2008 CE) and the runoff of the Teberda River (low-frequency variations) for May, July and August for 1850–2005 CE. The synthesis of all the available paleoclimatic records revealed several distinct climatic periods. Evidence of a warm interval (traditionally referred to as the “Arkhyz break in glaciation”) preceding the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the Caucasus is based on archeological, palynological, geochemical and pedological data. However, the conclusions concerning the duration and magnitude of this warming are still vague due to the low resolution of the data available and ambiguous interpretation of the evidence. The first LIA maximum glacier extent in the past millennium is poorly constrained. According to our data, it occurred prior to the year 1598 CE (tree-ring-based minimum age). Two other major phases of advances occurred in the second half of the 17th century CE and the first half of 19th century CE. General glacier retreat in the Northern Caucasus started in the late 1840s CE, with four to five minor readvances in the 1860s–1880s CE and three readvances or steady states in the 20th century CE (1910s, 1920s and 1970s–1980s). Since the last LIA maximum in the middle of the 19th century CE, most glaciers have decreased in length by more than 1000 m, and the rise in the elevation of the glacier fronts has exceeded 200 m. The glacier advances correspond to summer temperature minima and are generally coherent with the reconstructed mass balance of the Garabashi Glacier. A comparison of a tree-ring-based summer temperature reconstruction in the Northern Caucasus with detailed reconstructions of summer temperature and glacier fluctuations in the Alps shows a pronounced agreement between the records and supports the similarity between the patterns of climatic and glacier variations in the two regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South American biomes are increasingly affected by land use/land cover change. However, the climatic impacts of this phenomenon are still not well understood. In this paper, we model vegetation–climate interactions with a focus on four main biomes distributed in four key regions: The Atlantic Forest, the Cerrado, the Dry Chaco, and the Chilean Matorral ecosystems. We applied a three member ensemble climate model simulation for the period 1981–2010 (30 years) at 25 km resolution over the focus regions to quantify the changes in the regional climate resulting from historical deforestation. The results of computed modelling experiments show significant changes in surface fluxes, temperature and moisture in all regions. For instance, simulated temperature changes were stronger in the Cerrado and the Chilean Matorral with an increase of between 0.7 and 1.4 °C. Changes in the hydrological cycle revealed high regional variability. The results showed consistent significant decreases in relative humidity and soil moisture, and increases in potential evapotranspiration across biomes, yet without conclusive changes in precipitation. These impacts were more significant during the dry season, which resulted to be drier and warmer after deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing body of paleoclimate data indicates that periods of severe drought affected the Maya Lowlands of southeastern Mexico and northern Central America, especially during the Terminal Classic period (ca. 800–950 CE), raising the possibility that climate change contributed to the widespread collapse of many Maya polities at that time. A broad range of paleoclimate proxy methods have been applied in the Maya Lowlands and the data derived from these methods are sometimes challenging for archeologists and other non-specialists to interpret. This paper reviews the principal methods used for paleoclimate inference in the region and the rationale for climate proxy interpretation to help researchers working in the Maya Lowlands make sense of paleoclimate datasets. In particular, we focus on analyses of speleothems and lake sediment cores. These two paleoclimate archives have been most widely applied in the Maya Lowlands and have the greatest potential to provide insights into climate change impacts on the ancient Maya. We discuss the development of chronologies for these climate archives, the proxies for past climate change found within them, and how these proxy variables are interpreted. Finally, we present strategies for improving our understanding of proxy paleoclimate data from the Maya Lowlands, including multi-proxy analyses, assessment of spatial variability in past climate change, combined analysis of climate models and proxy data, and the integration of paleoclimatology and archeology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites can estimate the high-precision time-varying gravity field and the changes of Earth's surface mass, which have been widely used in water cycle and glacier mass balance. However, one of larger errors in GRACE measurements, land–ocean leakage effects, restricts high precision retrieval of ocean mass and terrestrial water storage variations along the coasts, particularly estimation of mass loss in Greenland. The land–ocean leakage effect along the coasts in Greenland will contaminate the mass loss signals with significant signal attenuation. In this paper, the precise glacier mass loss in Greenland from GRACE is re-estimated with correction of land–ocean leakage effects using the forward gravity modeling. The loss of Greenland ice-sheets is − 102.8 ± 9.01 Gt/a without removing leakage effect, but − 183.0 ± 19.91 Gt/a after removing the leakage effect from September 2003 to March 2008, which has a good agreement with ICESat results of − 184.8 ± 28.2 Gt/a. From January 2003 to December 2013, the total Greenland ice-sheet loss is at − 261.54 ± 6.12 Gt/a from GRACE measurements with removing the leakage effect by 42.4%, while two-thirds of total glacier melting in Greenland occurred in southern Greenland in the past 11 years. The secular leakage effects on glacier melting estimate is mainly located in the coastal areas, where larger glacier signals are significantly attenuated due to leaking out into the ocean. Furthermore, the leakage signals also have remarkable effects on seasonal and acceleration variations of glacier mass loss in Greenland. More significantly accelerated loss of glacier mass in Greenland is found at − 26.19 Gt/a 2 after correcting for leakage effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High resolution palaeoenvironmental records in Far-Eastern Russia are rare, and the Kamchatka Peninsula is among the least studied areas of the region. This paper describes a record spanning the last ca. 11,000 yr, obtained from a bog in the southern part of Kamchatka. The radiocarbon dated core was analysed for pollen, testate amoebae, charcoal and loss-on-ignition (LOI). The vegetation during the early Holocene was dominated by grasses (Poaceae), birch ( Betula ) and heath (Ericaceae p. p.). Around 10,300 cal yr BP there was a substantial change in the vegetation cover to shrub alder ( Alnus viridis s.l.) stands with sedges and ferns (Polypodiophyta) as well as herbs such as meadow rue ( Thalictrum ) in the understory. In the surroundings of Utka peatlands started to form. The variations in the vegetation cover were most probably caused by climatic changes. At the beginning of sediment accumulation, before 10,300 cal yr BP, the composition of the vegetation points to cooler summers and/or decreased annual precipitation. Around 10,300 cal yr BP, changes in vegetation occurred due to rising temperatures and/or changed water regimes. Increased abundancies of dry indicating testate amoebae after 9100 cal yr BP point to intermediate to dry soil conditions. Between 8600 and 7700 cal yr BP tree alder ( Alnus incana ) was widely spread at the site which probably indicates optimal environmental conditions. The tephra layer at 381–384.5 cm (ca. 8500 cal yr BP) produces a strong impact on the testate amoebae assemblages. At 7700 cal yr BP there was a sudden drop of A. incana in the local vegetation. From this time on, A. incana and also A. viridis decrease continuously whereas Betula gradually increases. The upper part of the sequence (after 6300 cal yr BP) shows higher abundancies of meadowsweet ( Filipendula ) and sweet gale ( Myrica ) pollen. After 6300 cal yr BP, changes in testate amoebae demonstrate variable soil moisture conditions at the site. Between 3700 and 1800 cal yr BP, wet conditions dominate as dry indicating testate amoebae decrease. After 1800 cal yr BP soil conditions become more variable again but this time with dry dominating testate amoebae. In contrast to surrounding regions, there is no evidence of trees such as spruce or larch growing in the surroundings of the site even though those trees are characteristic of many eastern Siberian sites. This difference might be because of the maritime influence of the Okhotsk Sea. Even dwarf pine ( Pinus pumila ), which is currently widely dispersed in northern Kamchatka, became part of the local vegetation only during the last 700 yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No glacial lake census exists for the Third Pole region, which includes the Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, comprehensive information is lacking about the distribution of and changes in glacial lakes caused by current global warming conditions. In this study, the first glacial lake inventories for the Third Pole were conducted for ~ 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat TM/ETM + data. Glacial lake spatial distributions, corresponding areas and temporal changes were examined. The significant results are as follows. (1) There were 4602, 4981, and 5701 glacial lakes (> 0.003 km 2 ) covering areas of 553.9 ± 90, 581.2 ± 97, and 682.4 ± 110 km 2 in ~ 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively; these lakes are primarily located in the Brahmaputra (39%), Indus (28%), and Amu Darya (10%) basins. (2) Small lakes (< 0.2 km 2 ) are more sensitive to climate changes. (3) Lakes closer to glaciers and at higher altitudes, particularly those connected to glacier termini, have undergone larger area changes. (4) Glacier-fed lakes are dominant in both quantity and area (> 70%) and exhibit faster expansion trends overall compared to non-glacier-fed lakes. We conclude that glacier meltwater may play a dominant role in the areal expansion of most glacial lakes in the Third Pole. In addition, the patterns of the glacier-fed lakes correspond well with warming temperature trends and negative glacier mass balance patterns. This paper presents an important database of glacial lakes and provides a basis for long-term monitoring and evaluation of outburst flood disasters primarily caused by glacial lakes in the Third Pole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two atmospheric circulation systems, i.e., the mid-latitude Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), dominate climate change in the NE Tibetan Plateau. However, controversy remains with regard to the climatic boundary between these westerly and monsoon regimes. In this paper, detailed rock magnetic and geochemical Rb/Sr analyses for a larger number of surface soils from a wide area in the NE Tibetan Plateau are presented. They show that surface soils in this region evince relatively significant regional variations in magnetic properties and geochemical characteristics. The magnetic parameters χ fd, χ ARM and geochemical Rb/Sr ratios exhibit higher values in EASM-controlled (humid) areas, and lower values in Westerlies-influenced (arid) areas. These characteristics indicate that such variations in χ fd, χ ARM and Rb/Sr ratios can be regarded as effective indicators of the degree of pedogenesis and weathering in the NE Tibetan Plateau. Our results also demonstrate that the climatic boundary between the westerly and monsoon regimes approximately overlaps with the boundary of highland meadow and temperate steppe desert/desert in NW China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]