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The aim of this study was to examine the effects of elevated carbon dioxide [CO2] and ozone [O3] and their interaction on wood chemistry and anatomy of five clones of 3-year-old trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). Wood chemistry was studied also on paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) seedling-origin saplings of the same age. Material for the study was collected from the Aspen Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in Rhinelander, WI, USA, where the saplings had been exposed to four treatments: control (C; ambient CO2, ambient O3), elevated CO2 (560ppm during daylight hours), elevated O3 (1.5 × ambient during daylight hours) and their combination (CO2 + O3) for three growing seasons (1998–2000). Wood chemistry responses to the elevated CO2 and O3 treatments differed between species. Aspen was most responsive, while maple was the least responsive of the three tree species. Aspen genotype affected the responses of wood chemistry and, to some extent, wood structure to the treatments. The lignin concentration increased under elevated O3 in four clones of aspen and in birch. However, elevated CO2 ameliorated the effect. In two aspen clones, nitrogen in wood samples decreased under combined exposure to CO2 and O2. Soluble sugar concentration in one aspen clone and starch concentration in two clones were increased by elevated CO2. In aspen wood, α-cellulose concentration changed under elevated CO2, decreasing under ambient 03 and slightly increasing under elevated O3. Hemicellulose concentration in birch was decreased by elevated CO2 and increased by elevated O3. In aspen, elevated O3 induced statistically significant reductions in distance from the pith to the bark and vessel lumen diameter, as well as increased wall thickness and wall percentage, and in one clone, decreased fibre lumen diameter. Our results show that juvenile wood properties of broadleaves, depending on species and genotype, were altered by atmospheric gas concentrations predicted for the year 2050 and that CO2 ameliorates some adverse effects of elevated O3 on wood chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some expected changes in climate resulting from human greenhouse gas emissions are clear and well documented, but others may be harder to predict because they involve extreme weather events or heretofore unusual combinations of weather patterns. One recent example of unusual weather that may become more frequent with climate change occurred in early spring 2007 when a large Arctic air mass moved into the eastern United States following a very warm late winter. In this paper, we document effects of this freeze event on Walker Branch, a well-studied stream ecosystem in eastern Tennessee. The 2007 spring freeze killed newly grown leaf tissues in the forest canopy, dramatically increasing the amount of light reaching the stream. Light levels at the stream surface were sustained at levels considerably above those normal for the late spring and summer months due to the incomplete recovery of canopy leaf area. Increased light levels caused a cascade of ecological effects in the stream beginning with considerably higher (two–three times) rates of gross primary production (GPP) during the late spring and summer months when normally low light levels severely limit stream GPP. Higher rates of stream GPP in turn resulted in higher rates of nitrate (NO3−) uptake by the autotrophic community and lower NO3− concentrations in stream water. Higher rates of stream GPP in summer also resulted in higher growth rates of a dominant herbivore, the snail Elimia clavaeformis. Typically, during summer months net NO3− uptake and snail growth rates are zero to negative; however, in 2007 uptake and growth were maintained at moderate levels. These results show how changes in forest vegetation phenology can have dramatic effects on stream productivity at multiple trophic levels and on nutrient cycling as a result of tight coupling of forest and stream ecosystems. Thus, climate change-induced changes in canopy structure and phenology may lead to large effects on stream ecosystems in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric measurements and land-based inventories imply that terrestrial ecosystems in the northern hemisphere are taking up significant amounts of anthropogenic cabon dioxide (CO2) emissions; however, there is considerable disagreement about the causes of this uptake, and its expected future trajectory. In this paper, we use the ecosystem demography (ED) model to quantify the contributions of disturbance history, CO2 fertilization and climate variability to the past, current, and future terrestrial carbon fluxes in the Eastern United States. The simulations indicate that forest regrowth following agricultural abandonment accounts for uptake of 0.11 Pg C yr−1 in the 1980s and 0.15 Pg C yr−1 in the 1990s, and regrowth following forest harvesting accounts for an additional 0.1 Pg C yr−1 of uptake during both these decades. The addition of CO2 fertilization into the model simulations increases carbon uptake rates to 0.38 Pg C yr−1 in the 1980s and 0.47 Pg C yr−1 in the 1990s. Comparisons of predicted aboveground carbon uptake to regional-scale forest inventory measurements indicate that the model's predictions in the absence of CO2 fertilization are 14% lower than observed, while in the presence of CO2 fertilization, predicted uptake rates are 28% larger than observed. Comparable results are obtained from comparisons of predicted total Net Ecosystem Productivity to the carbon fluxes observed at the Harvard Forest flux tower site and in model simulations free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. These results imply that disturbance history is the principal mechanism responsible for current carbon uptake in the Eastern United States, and that conventional biogeochemical formulations of plant growth overestimate the response of plants to rising CO2 levels. Model projections out to 2100 imply that the carbon uptake arising from forest regrowth will increasingly be dominated by forest regrowth following harvesting. Consequently, actual carbon storage declines to near zero by the end of the 21st century as the forest regrowth that has occurred since agricultural abandonment comes into equilibrium with the landscape's new disturbance regime. Incorporating interannual climate variability into the model simulations gives rise to large interannual variation in regional carbon fluxes, indicating that long-term measurements are necessary to detect the signature of processes that give rise to long-term uptake and storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we describe measurements and modeling of 18O in CO2 and H2O pools and fluxes at a tallgrass prairie site in Oklahoma. We present measurements of the δ18O value of leaf water, depth-resolved soil water, atmospheric water vapor, and Keeling plot δ18O intercepts for net soil-surface CO2 and ecosystem CO2 and H2O fluxes during three periods of the 2000 growing season. Daytime discrimination against C18OO, as calculated from measured above-canopy CO2 and δ18O gradients, is also presented. To interpret the isotope measurements, we applied an integrated land-surface and isotope model (ISOLSM) that simulates ecosystem H218O and C18OO stocks and fluxes. ISOLSM accurately predicted the measured isotopic composition of ecosystem water pools and the δ18O value of net ecosystem CO2 and H2O fluxes. Simulations indicate that incomplete equilibration between CO2 and H2O within C4 plant leaves can have a substantial impact on ecosystem discrimination. Diurnal variations in the δ18O value of above-canopy vapor had a small impact on the predicted δ18O value of ecosystem water pools, although sustained differences had a large impact. Diurnal variations in the δ18O value of above-canopy CO2 substantially affected the predicted ecosystem discrimination. Leaves dominate the ecosystem 18O-isoflux in CO2 during the growing season, while the soil contribution is relatively small and less variable. However, interpreting daytime measurements of ecosystem C18OO fluxes requires accurate predictions of both soil and leaf 18O-isofluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Ecosystem fluxes of energy, water, and CO[sub 2] result in spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric properties. In principle, these variations can be used to quantify the fluxes through inverse modelling of atmospheric transport, and can improve the understanding of processes and falsifiability of models. We investigated the influence of ecosystem fluxes on atmospheric CO[sub 2] in the vicinity of the WLEF-TV tower in Wisconsin using an ecophysiological model (Simple Biosphere, SiB2) coupled to an atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System). Model parameters were specified from satellite imagery and soil texture data. In a companion paper, simulated fluxes in the immediate tower vicinity have been compared to eddy covariance fluxes measured at the tower, with meteorology specified from tower sensors. Results were encouraging with respect to the ability of the model to capture observed diurnal cycles of fluxes. Here, the effects of fluxes in the tower footprint were also investigated by coupling SiB2 to a high-resolution atmospheric simulation, so that the model physiology could affect the meteorological environment. These experiments were successful in reproducing observed fluxes and concentration gradients during the day and at night, but revealed problems during transitions at sunrise and sunset that appear to be related to the canopy radiation parameterization in SiB2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies highlight the potential of climate change refugia (CCR) to support the persistence of biodiversity in regions that may otherwise become unsuitable with climate change. However, a key challenge in using CCR for climate resilient management lies in how CCR may intersect with existing forest management strategies, and subsequently influence how landscapes buffer species from negative impacts of warming climate. We address this challenge in temperate coastal forests of the Pacific Northwestern United States, where declines in the extent of late‐successional forests have prompted efforts to restore old‐growth forest structure. One common approach for doing so involves selectively thinning forest stands to enhance structural complexity. However, dense canopy is a key forest feature moderating understory microclimate and potentially buffering organisms from climate change impacts, raising the possibility that approaches for managing forests for old‐growth structure may reduce the extent and number of CCR. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices to identify CCR in an experimental forest with control and thinned (restoration) treatments, and explored the influence of biophysical variables on buffering capacity. We found that remotely sensed vegetation indices commonly used to identify CCR were associated with understory temperature and plant community composition, and thus captured aspects of landscape buffering that might instill climate resilience and be of interest to management. We then examined the interaction between current restoration strategies and CCR, and found that selective thinning for promoting old‐growth structure had only very minor, if any, effects on climatic buffering. In all, our study demonstrates that forest management approaches aimed at restoring old‐growth structure through targeted thinning do not greatly decrease buffering capacity, despite a known link between dense canopy and CCR. More broadly, this study illustrates the value of using remote sensing approaches to identify CCR, facilitating the integration of climate change adaptation with other forest management approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mounting evidence suggests that climate change will cause shifts of tree species range and abundance (biomass). Abundance changes under climate change are likely to occur prior to a detectable range shift. Disturbances are expected to directly affect tree species abundance and composition, and could profoundly influence tree species spatial distribution within a geographical region. However, how multiple disturbance regimes will interact with changing climate to alter the spatial distribution of species abundance remains unclear. We simulated such forest demographic processes using a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) parameterized with forest inventory data in the northeastern United States. Our study incorporated climate change under a high-emission future and disturbance regimes varying with gradients of intensities and spatial extents. The results suggest that disturbances catalyze changes in tree species abundance and composition under a changing climate, but the effects of disturbances differ by intensity and extent. Moderate disturbances and large extent disturbances have limited effects, while high-intensity disturbances accelerate changes by removing cohorts of mid-and late-successional species, creating opportunities for early-successional species. High-intensity disturbances result in the northern movement of early-successional species and the southern movement of late-successional species abundances. Our study is among the first to systematically investigate how disturbance extent and intensity interact to determine the spatial distribution of changes in species abundance and forest composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cover crops are gaining traction in many agricultural regions, partly driven by increased public subsidies and by private markets for ecosystem services. These payments are motivated by environmental benefits, including improved soil health, reduced erosion, and increased soil organic carbon. However, previous work based on experimental plots or crop modeling indicates cover crops may reduce crop yields. It remains unclear, though, how recent cover crop adoption has affected productivity in commercial agricultural systems. Here we perform the first large‐scale, field‐level analysis of observed yield impacts from cover cropping as implemented across the US Corn Belt. We use validated satellite data products at sub‐field scales to analyze maize and soybean yield outcomes for over 90,000 fields in 2019–2020. Because we lack data on cover crop species or timing, we seek to quantify the yield impacts of cover cropping as currently practiced in aggregate. Using causal forests analysis, we estimate an average maize yield loss of 5.5% on fields where cover crops were used for 3 or more years, compared with fields that did not adopt cover cropping. Maize yield losses were larger on fields with better soil ratings, cooler mid‐season temperatures, and lower spring rainfall. For soybeans, average yield losses were 3.5%, with larger impacts on fields with warmer June temperatures, lower spring and late‐season rainfall, and, to a lesser extent, better soils. Estimated impacts are consistent with multiple mechanisms indicated by experimental and simulation‐based studies, including the effects of cover crops on nitrogen dynamics, water consumption, and soil oxygen depletion. Our results suggest a need to improve cover crop management to reduce yield penalties, and a potential need to target subsidies based on likely yield impacts. Ultimately, avoiding substantial yield penalties is important for realizing widespread adoption and associated benefits for water quality, erosion, soil carbon, and greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. Lophelia pertusa, the main reef‐forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (>200 m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business‐as‐usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher‐resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi‐scale habitat suitability models for L. pertusa on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold‐water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of L. pertusa to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom‐contact fishing. Drastic reductions in L. pertusa climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (<~550 m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth‐driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC habitats and the critical ecosystem services they provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, NbCS benefits are estimated from soil and tree survey data that can miss important carbon sources and sinks within an ecosystem, and do not reveal the biophysical impacts of NbCS for local water and energy cycles. The only direct observations of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes, for example, by eddy covariance flux towers, have not yet been systematically assessed for what they can tell us about NbCS potentials, and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and land-surface models are not yet being widely used to inform NbCS policymaking or implementation. As a result, there is a critical mismatch between the point-and tree-scale data most often used to assess NbCS benefits and impacts, the ecosystem and landscape scales where NbCS projects are implemented, and the regional to continental scales most relevant to policymaking. Here, we propose a research agenda to confront these gaps using data and tools that have long been used to understand the mechanisms driving ecosystem carbon and energy cycling, but have not yet been widely applied to NbCS. We outline steps for creating robust NbCS assessments at both local to regional scales that are informed by ecosystem-scale observations, and which consider concurrent biophysical impacts, future climate feedbacks, and the need for equitable and inclusive NbCS implementation strategies. We contend that these research goals can largely be accomplished by shifting the scales at which pre-existing tools are applied and blended together, although we also highlight some opportunities for more radical shifts in approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most pressing questions in ecology and conservation centers on disentangling the relative impacts of concurrent global change drivers, climate and land‐use/land‐cover (LULC), on biodiversity. Yet studies that evaluate the effects of both drivers on species' winter distributions remain scarce, hampering our ability to develop full‐annual‐cycle conservation strategies. Additionally, understanding how groups of species differentially respond to climate versus LULC change is vital for efforts to enhance bird community resilience to future environmental change. We analyzed long‐term changes in winter occurrence of 89 species across nine bird groups over a 90‐year period within the eastern United States using Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data. We estimated variation in occurrence probability of each group as a function of spatial and temporal variation in winter climate (minimum temperature, cumulative precipitation) and LULC (proportion of group‐specific and anthropogenic habitats within CBC circle). We reveal that spatial variation in bird occurrence probability was consistently explained by climate across all nine species groups. Conversely, LULC change explained more than twice the temporal variation (i.e., decadal changes) in bird occurrence probability than climate change on average across groups. This pattern was largely driven by habitat‐constrained species (e.g., grassland birds, waterbirds), whereas decadal changes in occurrence probabilities of habitat‐unconstrained species (e.g., forest passerines, mixed habitat birds) were equally explained by both climate and LULC changes over the last century. We conclude that climate has generally governed the winter occurrence of avifauna in space and time, while LULC change has played a pivotal role in driving distributional dynamics of species with limited and declining habitat availability. Effective land management will be critical for improving species' resilience to climate change, especially during a season of relative resource scarcity and critical energetic trade‐offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased by 23% since the pre‐industrial era, which substantially destructed the stratospheric ozone layer and changed the global climate. However, it remains uncertain about the reasons behind the increase and the spatiotemporal patterns of soil N2O emissions, a primary biogenic source. Here, we used an integrative land ecosystem model, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), to quantify direct (i.e., emitted from local soil) and indirect (i.e., emissions related to local practices but occurring elsewhere) N2O emissions in the contiguous United States during 1900–2019. Newly developed geospatial data of land‐use history and crop‐specific agricultural management practices were used to force DLEM at a spatial resolution of 5 arc‐min by 5 arc‐min. The model simulation indicates that the U.S. soil N2O emissions totaled 0.97 ± 0.06 Tg N year−1 during the 2010s, with 94% and 6% from direct and indirect emissions, respectively. Hot spots of soil N2O emission are found in the US Corn Belt and Rice Belt. We find a threefold increase in total soil N2O emission in the United States since 1900, 74% of which is from agricultural soil emissions, increasing by 12 times from 0.04 Tg N year−1 in the 1900s to 0.51 Tg N year−1 in the 2010s. More than 90% of soil N2O emission increase in agricultural soils is attributed to human land‐use change and agricultural management practices, while increases in N deposition and climate warming are the dominant drivers for N2O emission increase from natural soils. Across the cropped acres, corn production stands out with a large amount of fertilizer consumption and high‐emission factors, responsible for nearly two‐thirds of direct agricultural soil N2O emission increase since 1900. Our study suggests a large N2O mitigation potential in cropland and the importance of exploring crop‐specific mitigation strategies and prioritizing management alternatives for targeted crop types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volatile nitrogen oxides (N2O, NO, NO2, HONO, ...) can negatively impact climate, air quality, and human health. Using soils collected from temperate forests across the eastern United States, we show microbial communities involved in nitrogen (N) cycling are structured, in large part, by the composition of overstory trees, leading to predictable N‐cycling syndromes, with consequences for emissions of volatile nitrogen oxides to air. Trees associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi promote soil microbial communities with higher N‐cycle potential and activity, relative to microbial communities in soils dominated by trees associating with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. Metagenomic analysis and gene expression studies reveal a 5 and 3.5 times greater estimated N‐cycle gene and transcript copy numbers, respectively, in AM relative to ECM soil. Furthermore, we observe a 60% linear decrease in volatile reactive nitrogen gas flux (NOy ≡ NO, NO2, HONO) as ECM tree abundance increases. Compared to oxic conditions, gas flux potential of N2O and NO increase significantly under anoxic conditions for AM soil (30‐ and 120‐fold increase), but not ECM soil—likely owing to small concentrations of available substrate (NO3‐) in ECM soil. Linear mixed effects modeling shows that ECM tree abundance, microbial process rates, and geographic location are primarily responsible for variation in peak potential NOy flux. Given that nearly all tree species associate with either AM or ECM fungi, our results indicate that the consequences of tree species shifts associated with global change may have predictable consequences for soil N cycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the importance of research on forest drought due to climate change that causes warm temperature and precipitation severity in the U.S. It cites that the U.S. Department of Agriculture initiated a study "Effects of Drought on Forests and Rangelands in the United States: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis" which evaluate that changes and summarizes the scientific foundation to manage drought resilience and adaptation.

The coastal ecosystems of temperate North America provide a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration. Yet, little data exist for the carbon stocks of major tidal wetland types in the Pacific Northwest, United States. We quantified the total ecosystem carbon stocks (TECS) in seagrass, emergent marshes, and forested tidal wetlands, occurring along increasing elevation and decreasing salinity gradients. The TECS included the total aboveground carbon stocks and the entire soil profile (to as deep as 3 m). TECS significantly increased along the elevation and salinity gradients: 217 ± 60 Mg C/ha for seagrass (low elevation/high salinity), 417 ± 70 Mg C/ha for low marsh, 551 ± 47 Mg C/ha for high marsh, and 1,064 ± 38 Mg C/ha for tidal forest (high elevation/low salinity). Soil carbon stocks accounted for >98% of TECS in the seagrass and marsh communities and 78% in the tidal forest. Soils in the 0–100 cm portion of the profile accounted for only 48%–53% of the TECS in seagrasses and marshes and 34% of the TECS in tidal forests. Thus, the commonly applied limit defining TECS to a 100 cm depth would greatly underestimate both carbon stocks and potential greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use conversion. The large carbon stocks coupled with other ecosystem services suggest value in the conservation and restoration of temperate zone tidal wetlands through climate change mitigation strategies. However, the findings suggest that long‐term sea‐level rise effects such as tidal inundation and increased porewater salinity will likely decrease ecosystem carbon stocks in the absence of upslope wetland migration buffer zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing human enterprise has sparked greater interest in identifying ecological thresholds in land use conversion beyond which populations or communities demonstrate abrupt nonlinear or substantive change in species composition. Such knowledge remains fundamental to understanding ecosystem resilience to environmental degradation and informing land use planning into the future. Confronting this challenge has been largely limited to inferring thresholds in univariate metrics of species richness and indices of biotic integrity and has largely ignored how land use legacies of the past may shape community responses of today. By leveraging data for 13,069 riverine sites from temperate, subtropical, and boreal climate zones on four continents, we characterize patterns of community change along diverse gradients of urbanization and agricultural land use, and identity threshold values beyond which significant alterations in species composition exists. Our results demonstrate the apparent universality by which freshwater fish communities are sensitive to even low levels of watershed urbanization (range of threshold values: 1%–12%), but consistently higher (and more variable) levels of agricultural development (2%–37%). We demonstrated that fish community compositional thresholds occurred, in general, at lower levels of watershed urbanization and agriculture when compared to threshold responses in species richness. This supports the notion that aggregated taxon‐specific responses may better reflect the complexity of assemblage responses to land use development. We further revealed that the ghost of land use past plays an important role in moderating how current‐day fish communities respond to land use intensification. Subbasins of the United States experiencing greater rates of past land use change demonstrated higher current‐day thresholds. Threshold responses of community composition, such as those identified in our study, illustrate the need for globally coordinated efforts to prioritize country‐specific management and policy initiatives that ensure that freshwater fish diversity is not inevitably lost in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bluetongue virus and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (HD) virus are globally distributed, vector‐borne viruses that infect and cause disease in domestic and wild ruminant species. The forces driving increases in resulting HD may be linked to weather conditions and increasing severity has been noted in northerly latitudes. We evaluated the role of drought severity in both space and time on changes in HD reports across the eastern United States for a recent 15 year period. The objectives of this study were to: (a) develop a spatiotemporal model to evaluate if drought severity explains changing patterns of HD presence; and (b) determine whether this potential risk factor varies in importance over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Historic data (2000–2014) from an annual HD presence–absence survey conducted by the Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study and from the United States Drought Monitor were used for this analysis. For every county in 23 states and for each of 15 years, data were based on reported drought status for August, wetland cover, the physiographic region, and the status of HD in the previous year. We used a generalized linear mixed model to explain HD presence and evaluated spatiotemporal predictors across the region. We found that drought severity was a significant predictor of HD presence and the significance of this relationship was dependent on latitude. In more northerly latitudes, where immunological naivety is most likely, we demonstrated the increasing strength of drought severity as a determinant of reported HD and established the importance of variation in drought severity as a risk factor over the present range of HD in the eastern United States. Our research provides spatially explicit evidence for the link between climate forces and emerging disease patterns across latitude for a globally distributed disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use/cover change (LUCC) is an important driver of environmental change, occurring at the same time as, and often interacting with, global climate change. Reforestation and deforestation have been critical aspects of LUCC over the past two centuries and are widely studied for their potential to perturb the global carbon cycle. More recently, there has been keen interest in understanding the extent to which reforestation affects terrestrial energy cycling and thus surface temperature directly by altering surface physical properties (e.g., albedo and emissivity) and land–atmosphere energy exchange. The impacts of reforestation on land surface temperature and their mechanisms are relatively well understood in tropical and boreal climates, but the effects of reforestation on warming and/or cooling in temperate zones are less certain. This study is designed to elucidate the biophysical mechanisms that link land cover and surface temperature in temperate ecosystems. To achieve this goal, we used data from six paired eddy‐covariance towers over co‐located forests and grasslands in the temperate eastern United States, where radiation components, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and meteorological conditions were measured. The results show that, at the annual time scale, the surface of the forests is 1–2°C cooler than grasslands, indicating a substantial cooling effect of reforestation. The enhanced latent and sensible heat fluxes of forests have an average cooling effect of −2.5°C, which offsets the net warming effect (+1.5°C) of albedo warming (+2.3°C) and emissivity cooling effect (−0.8°C) associated with surface properties. Additional daytime cooling over forests is driven by local feedbacks to incoming radiation. We further show that the forest cooling effect is most pronounced when land surface temperature is higher, often exceeding −5°C. Our results contribute important observational evidence that reforestation in the temperate zone offers opportunities for local climate mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictors for the ecological effects of non‐native species are lacking, even though such knowledge is fundamental to manage non‐native species and mitigate their impacts. Current theories suggest that the ecological effects of non‐native species may be related to other concomitant anthropogenic stressors, but this has not been tested at a global scale. We combine an exhaustive meta‐analysis of the ecological effects of marine non‐native species with human footprint proxies to determine whether the ecological changes due to non‐native species are modulated by co‐occurring anthropogenic impacts. We found that non‐native species had greater negative effects on native biodiversity where human population was high and caused reductions in individual performance where cumulative human impacts were large. On this basis we identified several marine ecoregions where non‐native species may have the greatest ecological effects, including areas in the Mediterranean Sea and along the northwest coast of the United States. In conclusion, our global assessment suggests coexisting anthropogenic impacts can intensify the ecological effects of non‐native species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production and consumption of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2) are affected by complex interactions of temperature, moisture, and substrate supply, which are further complicated by spatial heterogeneity of the soil matrix. This microsite heterogeneity is often invoked to explain non‐normal distributions of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, also known as hot spots and hot moments. To advance numerical simulation of these belowground processes, we expanded the Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis–Menten model, to apply it consistently for all three GHGs with respect to the biophysical processes of production, consumption, and diffusion within the soil, including the contrasting effects of oxygen (O2) as substrate or inhibitor for each process. High‐frequency chamber‐based measurements of all three GHGs at the Howland Forest (ME, USA) were used to parameterize the model using a multiple constraint approach. The area under a soil chamber is partitioned according to a bivariate log‐normal probability distribution function (PDF) of carbon and water content across a range of microsites, which leads to a PDF of heterotrophic respiration and O2 consumption among microsites. Linking microsite consumption of O2 with a diffusion model generates a broad range of microsite concentrations of O2, which then determines the PDF of microsites that produce or consume CH4 and N2O, such that a range of microsites occurs with both positive and negative signs for net CH4 and N2O flux. Results demonstrate that it is numerically feasible for microsites of N2O reduction and CH4 oxidation to co‐occur under a single chamber, thus explaining occasional measurement of simultaneous uptake of both gases. Simultaneous simulation of all three GHGs in a parsimonious modeling framework is challenging, but it increases confidence that agreement between simulations and measurements is based on skillful numerical representation of processes across a heterogeneous environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite widespread interest in drought legacies—multiyear impacts of drought on tree growth—the key implication of reported drought legacies remains unaddressed: as impaired growth and slow recovery associated with drought legacies are pervasive across forest ecosystems, what is the impact of more frequent drought conditions? We investigated the assumption that either multiple drought years occurring during a short period (multiyear droughts), or droughts occurring during the recovery period from previous drought (compounded droughts), are detrimental to subsequent growth. There is evidence that drought responses may vary among populations of widespread species, leading us to examine regional differences in responses of the conifer Pinus ponderosa to historic drought frequency in the western United States. More frequent drought conditions incurred additional growth declines and shifts in growth–climate sensitivities in the years following drought relative to single‐drought events, with 'triple‐droughts' being worse than 'double‐droughts'. Notably, prediction skill was not strongly reduced when ignoring compounded droughts, a consequence of the temporally comprehensive formulation of our stochastic antecedent model that accounts for the climatic memory of tree growth. We argue that incorporating drought‐induced temporal variability in tree growth sensitivities can aid inference gained from statistical models, where more simplistic models could overestimate the severity of drought legacies. We also found regional differences in response to repeated drought, and suggest plastic post‐drought sensitivities and climatic memory may represent beneficial physiological adjustments in interior regions. Within‐species variability may thus mediate forest responses to increasing drought frequency under future climate change, but experimental approaches using more species are necessary to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie drought legacy effects on tree growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet–dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897–2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder‐days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are becoming larger and more frequent across much of the United States due to anthropogenic climate change. No studies, however, have assessed fire prevalence in lake watersheds at broad spatial and temporal scales, and thus it is unknown whether wildfires threaten lakes and reservoirs (hereafter, lakes) of the United States. We show that fire activity has increased in lake watersheds across the continental United States from 1984 to 2015, particularly since 2005. Lakes have experienced the greatest fire activity in the western United States, Southern Great Plains, and Florida. Despite over 30 years of increasing fire exposure, fire effects on fresh waters have not been well studied; previous research has generally focused on streams, and most of the limited lake‐fire research has been conducted in boreal landscapes. We therefore propose a conceptual model of how fire may influence the physical, chemical, and biological properties of lake ecosystems by synthesizing the best available science from terrestrial, aquatic, fire, and landscape ecology. This model also highlights emerging research priorities and provides a starting point to help land and lake managers anticipate potential effects of fire on ecosystem services provided by fresh waters and their watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Biotic disturbances (BDs, for example, insects, pathogens, and wildlife herbivory) substantially affect boreal and temperate forest ecosystems globally. However, accurate impact assessments comprising larger spatial scales are lacking to date although these are critically needed given the expected disturbance intensification under a warming climate. Hence, our quantitative knowledge on current and future BD impacts, for example, on forest carbon (C) cycling, is strongly limited. We extended a dynamic global vegetation model to simulate ecosystem response to prescribed tree mortality and defoliation due to multiple biotic agents across United States forests during the period 1997–2015, and quantified the BD‐induced vegetation C loss, that is, C fluxes from live vegetation to dead organic matter pools. Annual disturbance fractions separated by BD type (tree mortality and defoliation) and agent (bark beetles, defoliator insects, other insects, pathogens, and other biotic agents) were calculated at 0.5° resolution from aerial‐surveyed data and applied within the model. Simulated BD‐induced C fluxes totaled 251.6 Mt C (annual mean: 13.2 Mt C year−1, SD ±7.3 Mt C year−1 between years) across the study domain, to which tree mortality contributed 95% and defoliation 5%. Among BD agents, bark beetles caused most C fluxes (61%), and total insect‐induced C fluxes were about five times larger compared to non‐insect agents, for example, pathogens and wildlife. Our findings further demonstrate that BD‐induced C cycle impacts (i) displayed high spatio‐temporal variability, (ii) were dominated by different agents across BD types and regions, and (iii) were comparable in magnitude to fire‐induced impacts. This study provides the first ecosystem model‐based assessment of BD‐induced impacts on forest C cycling at the continental scale and going beyond single agent‐host systems, thus allowing for comparisons across regions, BD types, and agents. Ultimately, a perspective on the potential and limitations of a more process‐based incorporation of multiple BDs in ecosystem models is offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Protected areas (PAs) cover about 22% of the conterminous United States. Understanding their role on historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) and on the carbon cycle is essential to provide guidance for environmental policies. In this study, we compiled historical LULCC and PAs data to explore these interactions within the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM). We found that intensive LULCC occurred in the conterminous United States from 1700 to 2005. More than 3 million km2 of forest, grassland and shrublands were converted into agricultural lands, which caused 10,607 Tg C release from land ecosystems to atmosphere. PAs had experienced little LULCC as they were generally established in the 20th century after most of the agricultural expansion had occurred. PAs initially acted as a carbon source due to land use legacies, but their accumulated carbon budget switched to a carbon sink in the 1960s, sequestering an estimated 1,642 Tg C over 1700–2005, or 13.4% of carbon losses in non‐PAs. We also find that PAs maintain larger carbon stocks and continue sequestering carbon in recent years (2001–2005), but at a lower rate due to increased heterotrophic respiration as well as lower productivity associated to aging ecosystems. It is essential to continue efforts to maintain resilient, biodiverse ecosystems and avoid large‐scale disturbances that would release large amounts of carbon in PAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Refugia are areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable the persistence of valued physical, ecological, or sociocultural resources. Spatially identifying refugia is important for conservation and applied management. Yet the concept of refugia has not been broadly extended to marine ecosystems. Here, we analyze data from a unique and long‐term (1999–2015) standardized survey of pelagic marine and anadromous species off Oregon and Washington in the northern California Current to identify such refugia. We use quantitative approaches to assess locations with high species richness and community persistence relative to local and basin‐scale environmental fluctuations. We have identified a potential climate change refugial zone along the continental shelf of Washington State in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean, characterized by a species‐rich community with low interannual temporal community change. This region contrasts with adjacent areas to the south and offshore that have lower species richness, and higher temporal species community change. Also, using spatially variant generalized additive mixed models, we identify areas with species compositions that are more influenced by basin‐scale climatic fluctuations than others. We propose that upwelling regions with retentive topographic features, such as wide continental shelves, can function as marine refugia for pelagic fauna, whereas offshore locations are potentially more climatically sensitive and experience high temporal change in species composition. Further identification of these marine refugia using in situ data for pelagic biodiversity and climatically sensitive areas can help guide management in the face of inevitable climatically driven change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to lead to upslope shifts in tree species distributions, but the evidence is mixed partly due to land-use effects and individualistic species responses to climate. We examined how individual tree species demography varies along elevational climatic gradients across four states in the northeastern United States to determine whether species elevational distributions and their potential upslope (or downslope) shifts were controlled by climate, land-use legacies (past logging), or soils. We characterized tree demography, microclimate, land-use legacies, and soils at 83 sites stratified by elevation (~500 to ~1200 m above sea level) across 12 mountains containing the transition from northern hardwood to spruce-fir forests. We modeled elevational distributions of tree species saplings and adults using logistic regression to test whether sapling distributions suggest ongoing species range expansion upslope (or contraction downslope) relative to adults, and we used linear mixed models to determine the extent to which climate, land use, and soil variables explain these distributions. Tree demography varied with elevation by species, suggesting a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for red spruce (more so in cool regions) and sugar maple, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. While soils had relatively minor effects, climate was the dominant predictor for most species and more so for saplings than adults of red spruce, sugar maple, yellow birch, cordate birch, and striped maple. On the other hand, logging legacies were positively associated with American beech, sugar maple, and yellow birch, and negatively with red spruce and balsam fir - generally more so for adults than saplings. All species exhibited individualistic rather than synchronous demographic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species indicates that land use may mask species range shifts caused by changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock manure management accounts for almost 10% of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture globally, and contributes an equal proportion to the US methane emission inventory. Current emissions inventories use emissions factors determined from small-scale laboratory experiments that have not been compared to field-scale measurements. We compiled published data on field-scale measurements of greenhouse gas emissions from working and research dairies and compared these to rates predicted by the IPCC Tier 2 modeling approach. Anaerobic lagoons were the largest source of methane (368 ± 193 kg CH4 hd−1 yr−1), more than three times that from enteric fermentation (~120 kg CH4 hd−1 yr−1). Corrals and solid manure piles were large sources of nitrous oxide (1.5 ± 0.8 and 1.1 ± 0.7 kg N2O hd−1 yr−1, respectively). Nitrous oxide emissions from anaerobic lagoons (0.9 ± 0.5 kg N2O hd−1 yr−1) and barns (10 ± 6 kg N2O hd−1 yr−1) were unexpectedly large. Modeled methane emissions underestimated field measurement means for most manure management practices. Modeled nitrous oxide emissions underestimated field measurement means for anaerobic lagoons and manure piles, but overestimated emissions from slurry storage. Revised emissions factors nearly doubled slurry CH4 emissions for Europe and increased N2O emissions from solid piles and lagoons in the United States by an order of magnitude. Our results suggest that current greenhouse gas emission factors generally underestimate emissions from dairy manure and highlight liquid manure systems as promising target areas for greenhouse gas mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many ecological phenomena combine to direct vegetation trends over time, with climate and disturbance playing prominent roles. To help decipher their relative importance during Euro-American times, we employed a unique approach whereby tree species/genera were partitioned into temperature, shade tolerance, and pyrogenicity classes and applied to comparative tree-census data. Our megadata analysis of 190 datasets determined the relative impacts of climate vs. altered disturbance regimes for various biomes across the eastern United States. As the Euro-American period (ca. 1500 to today) spans two major climatic periods, from Little Ice Age to the Anthropocene, vegetation changes consistent with warming were expected. In most cases, however, European disturbance overrode regional climate, but in a manner that varied across the Tension Zone Line. To the north, intensive and expansive early European disturbance resulted in the ubiquitous loss of conifers and large increases of Acer, Populus, and Quercus in northern hardwoods, whereas to the south, these disturbances perpetuated the dominance of Quercus in central hardwoods. Acer increases and associated mesophication in Quercus-Pinus systems were delayed until mid 20th century fire suppression. This led to significant warm to cool shifts in temperature class where cool-adapted Acer saccharum increased and temperature neutral changes where warm-adapted Acer rubrum increased. In both cases, these shifts were attributed to fire suppression rather than climate change. Because mesophication is ongoing, eastern US forests formed during the catastrophic disturbance era followed by fire suppression will remain in climate disequilibrium into the foreseeable future. Overall, the results of our study suggest that altered disturbance regimes rather than climate had the greatest influence on vegetation composition and dynamics in the eastern United States over multiple centuries. Land-use change often trumped or negated the impacts of warming climate, and needs greater recognition in climate change discussions, scenarios, and model interpretations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three young northern temperate forest communities in the north-central United States were exposed to factorial combinations of elevated carbon dioxide ( CO2) and tropospheric ozone (O3) for 11 years. Here, we report results from an extensive sampling of plant biomass and soil conducted at the conclusion of the experiment that enabled us to estimate ecosystem carbon (C) content and cumulative net primary productivity ( NPP). Elevated CO2 enhanced ecosystem C content by 11%, whereas elevated O3 decreased ecosystem C content by 9%. There was little variation in treatment effects on C content across communities and no meaningful interactions between CO2 and O3. Treatment effects on ecosystem C content resulted primarily from changes in the near-surface mineral soil and tree C, particularly differences in woody tissues. Excluding the mineral soil, cumulative NPP was a strong predictor of ecosystem C content ( r 2 = 0.96). Elevated CO2 enhanced cumulative NPP by 39%, a consequence of a 28% increase in canopy nitrogen (N) content (g N m−2) and a 28% increase in N productivity ( NPP/canopy N). In contrast, elevated O3 lowered NPP by 10% because of a 21% decrease in canopy N, but did not impact N productivity. Consequently, as the marginal impact of canopy N on NPP (∆ NPP/∆N) decreased through time with further canopy development, the O3 effect on NPP dissipated. Within the mineral soil, there was less C in the top 0.1 m of soil under elevated O3 and less soil C from 0.1 to 0.2 m in depth under elevated CO2. Overall, these results suggest that elevated CO2 may create a sustained increase in NPP, whereas the long-term effect of elevated O3 on NPP will be smaller than expected. However, changes in soil C are not well-understood and limit our ability to predict changes in ecosystem C content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We projected effects of mid-21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead ( O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid-21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intensive regional research campaign was conducted by the North American Carbon Program ( NACP) in 2007 to study the carbon cycle of the highly productive agricultural regions of the Midwestern United States. Forty-five different associated projects were conducted across five US agencies over the course of nearly a decade involving hundreds of researchers. One of the primary objectives of the intensive campaign was to investigate the ability of atmospheric inversion techniques to use highly calibrated CO2 mixing ratio data to estimate CO2 flux over the major croplands of the United States by comparing the results to an inventory of CO2 fluxes. Statistics from densely monitored crop production, consisting primarily of corn and soybeans, provided the backbone of a well studied bottom-up inventory flux estimate that was used to evaluate the atmospheric inversion results. Estimates were compared to the inventory from three different inversion systems, representing spatial scales varying from high resolution mesoscale ( PSU), to continental ( CSU) and global (CarbonTracker), coupled to different transport models and optimization techniques. The inversion-based mean CO2-C sink estimates were generally slightly larger, 8-20% for PSU, 10-20% for CSU, and 21% for CarbonTracker, but statistically indistinguishable, from the inventory estimate of 135 TgC. While the comparisons show that the MCI region-wide C sink is robust across inversion system and spatial scale, only the continental and mesoscale inversions were able to reproduce the spatial patterns within the region. In general, the results demonstrate that inversions can recover CO2 fluxes at sub-regional scales with a relatively high density of CO2 observations and adequate information on atmospheric transport in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important negative feedback to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916-2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate-driven species range shifts during the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity will require projections of the future status of species under alternative climate change scenarios. Demographic models based on empirical data that link temporal variation in climate with vital rates can improve the accuracy of such predictions and help guide conservation efforts. Here, we characterized how population dynamics and extinction risk might be affected by climate change for three spotted owl ( S trix occidentalis) populations in the Southwestern United States over the next century. Specifically, we used stochastic, stage-based matrix models parameterized with vital rates linked to annual variation in temperature and precipitation to project owl populations forward in time under three IPCC emissions scenarios relative to contemporary climate. Owl populations in Arizona and New Mexico were predicted to decline rapidly over the next century and had a much greater probability of extinction under all three emissions scenarios than under current climate conditions. In contrast, owl population dynamics in Southern California were relatively insensitive to predicted changes in climate, and extinction risk was low for this population under all scenarios. The difference in predicted climate change impacts between these areas was due to negative associations between warm, dry conditions and owl vital rates in Arizona and New Mexico, whereas cold, wet springs reduced reproduction in Southern California. Predicted changes in population growth rates were mediated more by weather-induced changes in fecundity than survival, and were generally more sensitive to increases in temperature than declines in precipitation. Our results indicate that spotted owls in arid environments may be highly vulnerable to climate change, even in core parts of the owl's range. More broadly, contrasting responses to climate change among populations highlight the need to tailor conservation strategies regionally, and modeling efforts such as ours can help prioritize the allocation of resources in this regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field-based and remote-sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium-resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate-related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf-area trajectories in mid- Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape-scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest insects and pathogens are major disturbance agents that have affected millions of hectares in North America in recent decades, implying significant impacts to the carbon ( C) cycle. Here, we review and synthesize published studies of the effects of biotic disturbances on forest C cycling in the United States and Canada. Primary productivity in stands was reduced, sometimes considerably, immediately following insect or pathogen attack. After repeated growth reductions caused by some insects or pathogens or a single infestation by some bark beetle species, tree mortality occurred, altering productivity and decomposition. In the years following disturbance, primary productivity in some cases increased rapidly as a result of enhanced growth by surviving vegetation, and in other cases increased slowly because of lower forest regrowth. In the decades following tree mortality, decomposition increased as a result of the large amount of dead organic matter. Net ecosystem productivity decreased immediately following attack, with some studies reporting a switch to a C source to the atmosphere, and increased afterward as the forest regrew and dead organic matter decomposed. Large variability in C cycle responses arose from several factors, including type of insect or pathogen, time since disturbance, number of trees affected, and capacity of remaining vegetation to increase growth rates following outbreak. We identified significant knowledge gaps, including limited understanding of carbon cycle impacts among different biotic disturbance types (particularly pathogens), their impacts at landscape and regional scales, and limited capacity to predict disturbance events and their consequences for carbon cycling. We conclude that biotic disturbances can have major impacts on forest C stocks and fluxes and can be large enough to affect regional C cycling. However, additional research is needed to reduce the uncertainties associated with quantifying biotic disturbance effects on the North American C budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand-level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA that experienced an outbreak of mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We measured tree characteristics in lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta) plots spanning a range of structure and mortality conditions. We then initialized the forest vegetation simulator, an individual tree-based model, with these measurements and simulated the response of aboveground production of C fluxes as well as trajectories of C stocks and fluxes in the coming decades. Mountain pine beetles killed up to 52% of the trees within plots, with more larger trees killed. C stocks in lodgepole pine were reduced by 31-83% following the outbreak, and plot-level C fluxes decreased 28-73%. Modeled C stocks increased nearly continuously following the infestation, recovering to preoutbreak levels in 25 years or less. Simulated aboveground tree C fluxes increased following the immediate postoutbreak decrease, then subsequently declined. Substantial variability of C stocks and fluxes among plots resulted from the number and size of killed and surviving trees. Our study illustrates that bark beetle epidemics alter forest C cycling unlike stand-replacement wildfires or clear-cut harvests, due in part to incomplete mortality coupled with the preference by beetles for larger trees. The dependency of postoutbreak C stocks and fluxes on stand structure suggests that C budget models and studies in areas experiencing mountain pine beetle disturbances need to include size distribution of trees for the most accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are an integral part of the soil system in arid regions worldwide, stabilizing soil surfaces, aiding vascular plant establishment, and are significant sources of ecosystem nitrogen and carbon. Hydration and temperature primarily control ecosystem CO2 flux in these systems. Using constructed mesocosms for incubations under controlled laboratory conditions, we examined the effect of temperature (5–35 °C) and water content (WC, 20–100%) on CO2 exchange in light (cyanobacterially dominated) and dark (cyanobacteria/lichen and moss dominated) biocrusts of the cool Colorado Plateau Desert in Utah and the hot Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico. In light crusts from both Utah and New Mexico, net photosynthesis was highest at temperatures >30 °C. Net photosynthesis in light crusts from Utah was relatively insensitive to changes in soil moisture. In contrast, light crusts from New Mexico tended to exhibit higher rates of net photosynthesis at higher soil moisture. Dark crusts originating from both sites exhibited the greatest net photosynthesis at intermediate soil water content (40–60%). Declines in net photosynthesis were observed in dark crusts with crusts from Utah showing declines at temperatures >25 °C and those originating from New Mexico showing declines at temperatures >35 °C. Maximum net photosynthesis in all crust types from all locations were strongly influenced by offsets in the optimal temperature and water content for gross photosynthesis compared with dark respiration. Gross photosynthesis tended to be maximized at some intermediate value of temperature and water content and dark respiration tended to increase linearly. The results of this study suggest biocrusts are capable of CO2 exchange under a wide range of conditions. However, significant changes in the magnitude of this exchange should be expected for the temperature and precipitation changes suggested by current climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current global models predict a hotter and drier climate in the southwestern United States with anticipated increases in drought frequency and severity coupled with changes in flash flood regimes. Such changes would likely have important ecological consequences, particularly for stream and riparian ecosystems already subject to frequent hydrologic disturbance. This study assessed the potential response of aquatic macroinvertebrates to interannual variation in hydrology in a spatially intermittent desert stream (Sycamore Creek, AZ). We compiled data on the recovery of macroinvertebrate communities following spring floods, with successional sequences captured 11 times over a 16-year period (1983–1999). This period encompassed a transition from perennial to intermittent flow in this system, and included a record drought in 1989–1990. Results show that while the size of floods initiating sequences had little explanatory power, changes in macroinvertebrate community structure during postflood succession were closely associated with antecedent flooding and drought. Year-to-year differences in benthic communities integrated taxon-specific responses to antecedent disturbance, including differential resistance to channel drying, use of hyporheic refugia, and variable rates of recovery once stream flow resumed. The long-term consequences of drying on community structure were only evident during later stages of postflood succession, illustrating an interaction between flood and drought recovery processes in this system. Our observations highlight the potential for predicted climate changes in this region to have marked and long-lasting consequences for benthic communities in desert streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Receiving coastal waters and estuaries are among the most nutrient-enriched environments on earth, and one of the symptoms of the resulting eutrophication is the proliferation of opportunistic, fast-growing marine seaweeds. Here, we used a widespread macroalga often involved in blooms, Ulva spp., to investigate how supply of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), the two main potential growth-limiting nutrients, influence macroalgal growth in temperate and tropical coastal waters ranging from low- to high-nutrient supplies. We carried out N and P enrichment field experiments on Ulva spp. in seven coastal systems, with one of these systems represented by three different subestuaries, for a total of nine sites. We showed that rate of growth of Ulva spp. was directly correlated to annual dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations, where growth increased with increasing DIN concentration. Internal N pools of macroalgal fronds were also linked to increased DIN supply, and algal growth rates were tightly coupled to these internal N pools. The increases in DIN appeared to be related to greater inputs of wastewater to these coastal waters as indicated by high δ15N signatures of the algae as DIN increased. N and P enrichment experiments showed that rate of macroalgal growth was controlled by supply of DIN where ambient DIN concentrations were low, and by P where DIN concentrations were higher, regardless of latitude or geographic setting. These results suggest that understanding the basis for macroalgal blooms, and management of these harmful phenomena, will require information as to nutrient sources, and actions to reduce supply of N and P in coastal waters concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests in northeastern North America are influenced by varying climatic and biotic factors; however, there is concern that rapid changes in these factors may lead to important changes in ecosystem processes such as decomposition. Climate change (especially warming) is predicted to increase rates of decomposition in northern latitudes. Warming in winter may result in complex effects including decreased levels of snow cover and an increased incidence of soil freezing that will effect decomposition. Along with these changes in climate, moose densities have also been increasing in this region, likely affecting nutrient dynamics. We measured decomposition and N release from 15N-labeled sugar maple leaf litter and moose feces over 20 months in reference and snow removal treatment (to induce soil freezing) plots in two separate experiments at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. Snow removal/soil freezing decreased decomposition of maple litter, but stimulated N transfer to soil and microbial biomass. Feces decomposed more rapidly than maple litter, and feces N moved into the mineral soil more than N derived from litter, likely due to the lower C : N ratio of feces. Feces decomposition was not affected by the snow removal treatment. Total microbial biomass (measured as microbial N and C) was not significantly affected by the treatments in either the litter or feces plots. These results suggest that increases in soil freezing and/or large herbivore populations, increase the transfer rate of N from plant detritus or digested plants into the mineral soil. Such changes suggest that altering the spatial and temporal patterns of soil freezing and moose density have important implications for ecosystem N cycling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species migration in response to warming temperatures is expected to lead to ‘biotic attrition,’ or loss of local diversity, in areas where the number of species emigrating or going locally extinct exceeds the number immigrating. Biotic attrition is predicted be especially severe in the low-lying hot tropics since elevated temperatures may surpass the observed tolerances of most extant species. It is possible, however, that the estimated temperature niches of many species are inaccurate and truncated with respect to their true tolerances due to the absence of hotter areas under current global climate. If so, these species will be capable of persisting in some areas where future temperatures exceed current temperatures, reducing rates of biotic attrition. Here, we use natural history collections data to estimate the realized thermal niches of > 2000 plant species from the tropical forests of South America. In accord with the truncation hypothesis, we find that the thermal niches of species from hot lowland areas are several degrees narrower than the thermal niches of species from cooler areas. We estimate rates of biotic attrition for South American tropical forests due to temperature increases ranging from 1 to 5 °C, and under two niche assumptions. The first is that the observed thermal niches truly reflect the plant's tolerances and that the reduction in niche breadth is due to increased specialization. The second is that lowland species have the same mean thermal niche breadth as nonlowland and nonequatorial species. The differences between these two models are dramatic. For example, using observed thermal niches we predict an almost complete loss of plant diversity in most South American tropical forests due to a 5 °C temperature increase, but correcting for possible niche truncation we estimate that most forests will retain > 50–70% of their current species richness. The different predictions highlight the importance of using fundamental vs. realized niches in predicting the responses of species to global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as hurricanes, which may abruptly alter ecological processes in forests and thus affect avian diversity. Developing appropriate conservation measures necessitates identifying patterns of avifauna response to hurricanes. We sought to answer two questions: (1) does avian diversity, measured as community similarity, abundance, and species richness, change in areas affected by hurricane compared with unaffected areas, and (2) what factors are associated with the change(s) in avian diversity? We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data, hurricane track information, and a time series of Landsat images in a repeated measures framework to answer these questions. Our results show a decrease in community similarity in the first posthurricane breeding season for all species as a group, and for species that nest in the midstory and canopy. We also found significant effects of hurricanes on abundance for species that breed in urban and woodland habitats, but not on the richness of any guild. In total, hurricanes produced regional changes in community similarity largely without significant loss of richness or overall avian abundance. We identified several potential mechanisms for these changes in avian diversity, including hurricane-induced changes in forest habitat and the use of refugia by birds displaced from hurricane-damaged forests. The prospect of increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes is not likely to invoke a conservation crisis for birds provided we maintain sufficient forest habitat so that avifauna can respond to hurricanes by shifting to areas of suitable habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the major concerns about global warming is the potential for an increase in decomposition and soil respiration rates, increasing CO2 emissions and creating a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. This is particularly important in ecosystems with large belowground biomass, such as grasslands where over 90% of the carbon is allocated belowground. A better understanding of the relative influence of climate and litter quality on litter decomposition is needed to predict these changes accurately in grasslands. The Long-Term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) dataset was used to evaluate the influence of climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and climate decomposition index), and litter quality (lignin content, carbon : nitrogen, and lignin : nitrogen ratios) on leaf and root decomposition in the US Great Plains. Wooden dowels were used to provide a homogeneous litter quality to evaluate the relative importance of above and belowground environments on decomposition. Contrary to expectations, temperature did not explain variation in root and leaf decomposition, whereas precipitation partially explained variation in root decomposition. Percent lignin was the best predictor of leaf and root decomposition. It also explained most variation in root decomposition in models which combined litter quality and climatic variables. Despite the lack of relationship between temperature and root decomposition, temperature could indirectly affect root decomposition through decreased litter quality and increased water deficits. These results suggest that carbon flux from root decomposition in grasslands would increase, as result of increasing temperature, only if precipitation is not limiting. However, where precipitation is limiting, increased temperature would decrease root decomposition, thus likely increasing carbon storage in grasslands. Under homogeneous litter quality, belowground decomposition was faster than aboveground and was best predicted by mean annual precipitation, which also suggests that the high moisture in soil accelerates decomposition belowground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biofuels from crops are emerging as a Jekyll & Hyde – promoted by some as a means to offset fossil fuel emissions, denigrated by others as lacking sustainability and taking land from food crops. It is frequently asserted that plants convert only 0.1% of solar energy into biomass, therefore requiring unacceptable amounts of land for production of fuel feedstocks. The C4 perennial grass Miscanthus× giganteus has proved a promising biomass crop in Europe, while switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) has been tested at several locations in N. America. Here, replicated side-by-side trials of these two crops were established for the first time along a latitudinal gradient in Illinois. Over 3 years of trials, Miscanthus× giganteus achieved average annual conversion efficiencies into harvestable biomass of 1.0% (30 t ha−1) and a maximum of 2.0% (61 t ha−1), with minimal agricultural inputs. The regionally adapted switchgrass variety Cave-in-Rock achieved somewhat lower yields, averaging 10 t ha−1. Given that there has been little attempt to improve the agronomy and genetics of these grasses compared with the major grain crops, these efficiencies are the minimum of what may be achieved. At this 1.0% efficiency, 12 million hectares, or 9.3% of current US cropland, would be sufficient to provide 133 × 109 L of ethanol, enough to offset one-fifth of the current US gasoline use. In contrast, maize grain from the same area of land would only provide 49 × 109 L, while requiring much higher nitrogen and fossil energy inputs in its cultivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]