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Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature-based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ) in 2070-2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A-NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades., (© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Picophytoplankton are a ubiquitous component of marine plankton communities and are expected to be favored by global increases in seawater temperature and stratification associated with climate change. Eukaryotic and prokaryotic picophytoplankton have distinct ecology, and global models predict that the two groups will respond differently to future climate scenarios. At a nearshore observatory on the Northeast US Shelf, however, decades of year-round monitoring have shown these two groups to be highly synchronized in their responses to environmental variability. To reconcile the differences between regional and global predictions for picophytoplankton dynamics, we here investigate the picophytoplankton community across the continental shelf gradient from the nearshore observatory to the continental slope. We analyze flow cytometry data from 22 research cruises, comparing the response of picoeukaryote and Synechococcus communities to environmental variability across time and space. We find that the mechanisms controlling picophytoplankton abundance differ across taxa, season, and distance from shore. Like the prokaryote, Synechococcus, picoeukaryote division rates are limited nearshore by low temperatures in winter and spring, and higher temperatures offshore lead to an earlier spring bloom. Unlike Synechococcus, picoeukaryote concentration in summer decreases dramatically in offshore surface waters and exhibits deeper subsurface maxima. The offshore picoeukaryote community appears to be nutrient limited in the summer and subject to much greater loss rates than Synechococcus. This work both produces and demonstrates the necessity of taxon- and site-specific knowledge for accurately predicting the responses of picophytoplankton to ongoing environmental change., (© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Given the context of significant global warming and the intensification of extreme climate events in the last century, large-scale reforestation and afforestation have been recognized as effective strategies to mitigate the climate crisis. Since the 1970s, China has launched several afforestation programs aimed at regional ecological protection, playing an important role in reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. This study provided a detailed analysis of the growth suitability of the main planted conifers (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica and Pinus tabulaeformis) and broadleaves (Populus spp., Robinia pseudoacacia) in the semi-arid northern China. We compared the radial growth trends of plantations and their responses to extreme droughts from 1980 to 2018. Growth of most plantations has significantly increased over time, but broadleaves showed recent growth reductions in the past decade, which may be related to tree age and reduced soil moisture. Nevertheless, under warmer climate scenarios, the growth of plantations is forecasted to continue increasing. Broadleaves showed a better post-drought recovery, probably linked to their anisohydric behavior, than conifers, which presented a better resistance to drought. Growth of conifers depended more on warmer temperature and better precipitation conditions during the growing season, whereas broadleaves mainly reacted to warm temperature. Additionally, pre-drought growth levels weakened resilience components, while post-drought precipitation compensated for drought-induced growth deficit. Growth and resilience were negatively related to tree age, while higher stand density reduced growth. This assessment and projections of growth and drought resilience indicate the sustainability of most plantations in semi-arid regions, but future warmer and drier conditions may lead to an uncertain future regarding forest health and reduce their carbon sink potential., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), increasing in duration and intensity because of climate change, are now a major threat to marine life and can have lasting effects on the structure and function of ecosystems. However, the responses of marine taxa and ecosystems to MHWs can be highly variable, making predicting and interpreting biological outcomes a challenge. Here, we review how biological responses to MHWs, from individuals to ecosystems, are mediated by fine-scale spatial variability in the coastal marine environment (hereafter, local gradients). Viewing observed responses through a lens of ecological theory, we present a simple framework of three 'resilience processes' (RPs) by which local gradients can influence the responses of marine taxa to MHWs. Local gradients (1) influence the amount of stress directly experienced by individuals, (2) facilitate local adaptation and acclimatization of individuals and populations, and (3) shape community composition which then influences responses to MHWs. We then synthesize known examples of fine-scale gradients that have affected responses of benthic foundation species to MHWs, including kelp forests, coral reefs, and seagrass meadows and link these varying responses to the RPs. We present a series of case studies from various marine ecosystems to illustrate the differential impacts of MHWs mediated by gradients in both temperature and other co-occurring drivers. In many cases, these gradients had large effect sizes with several examples of local gradients causing a 10-fold difference in impacts or more (e.g., survival, coverage). This review highlights the need for high-resolution environmental data to accurately predict and manage the consequences of MHWs in the context of ongoing climate change. While current tools may capture some of these gradients already, we advocate for enhanced monitoring and finer scale integration of local environmental heterogeneity into climate models. This will be essential for developing effective conservation strategies and mitigating future marine biodiversity loss., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Widespread adoption of regenerative agriculture practices is an integral part of the US plan to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. National incentives have particularly increased for the adoption of cover crops (CCs), which have presumably large carbon (C) sequestration potential. However, assessments of national CC climate benefits have not fully considered regional variability, changing C sequestration rates over time, and potential N 2 O trade-offs. Using the DayCent soil biogeochemical model and current national survey data, we estimate CC climate change mitigation potential to be 39.0 ± 24.1 Mt CO 2 e year -1 , which is 45%-65% lower than previous estimates, with large uncertainty attributed to N 2 O impacts. Three-fourths of this climate change mitigation potential is concentrated in the North Central, Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi regions. Public investment should be focused in these regions to maximize CC climate benefits, but the national contribution of CC to emissions targets may be lower than previously anticipated., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change will affect the way biodiversity influences the stability of plant communities. Although biodiversity, associated species asynchrony, and species stability could enhance community stability, the understanding of potential nonlinear shifts in the biodiversity-stability relationship across a wide range of aridity (measured as the aridity index, the precipitation/potential evapotranspiration ratio) gradients and the underlying mechanisms remain limited. Using an 8-year dataset from 687 sites in Mongolia, which included 5496 records of vegetation and productivity, we found that the temporal stability of plant communities decreased more rapidly in more arid areas than in less arid areas. The result suggests that future aridification across terrestrial ecosystems may adversely affect community stability. Additionally, we identified nonlinear shifts in the effects of species richness and species synchrony on temporal community stability along the aridity gradient. Species synchrony was a primary driver of community stability, which was consistently negatively affected by species richness while being positively affected by the synchrony between C3 and C4 species across the aridity gradient. These results highlight the crucial role of C4 species in stabilizing communities through differential responses to interannual climate variations between C3 and C4 species. Notably, species richness and the synchrony between C3 and C4 species independently regulated species synchrony, ultimately affecting community stability. We propose that maintaining plant communities with a high diversity of C3 and C4 species will be key to enhancing community stability across Mongolian grasslands. Moreover, species synchrony, species stability, species richness and the synchrony between C3 and C4 species across the aridity gradient consistently mediated the impacts of aridity on community stability. Hence, strategies aimed at promoting the maintenance of biological diversity and composition will help ecosystems adapt to climate change or mitigate its adverse effects on ecosystem stability., (Global Change Biology© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Earth functions as an integrated system-its current habitability to complex life is an emergent property dependent on interactions among biological, chemical, and physical components. As global warming affects ecosystem structure and function, so too will the biosphere affect climate by altering atmospheric gas composition and planetary albedo. Constraining these ecosystem-climate feedbacks is essential to accurately predict future change and develop mitigation strategies; however, the interplay among ecosystem processes complicates the assessment of their impact. Here, we explore the state-of-knowledge on how ecological and biological processes (e.g., competition, trophic interactions, metabolism, and adaptation) affect the directionality and magnitude of feedbacks between ecosystems and climate, using illustrative examples from the aquatic sphere. We argue that, despite ample evidence for the likely significance of many, our present understanding of the combinatorial effects of ecosystem dynamics precludes the robust quantification of most ecologically driven climate feedbacks. Constraining these effects must be prioritized within the ecological sciences for only by studying the biosphere as both subject and arbiter of global climate can we develop a sufficiently holistic view of the Earth system to accurately predict Earth's future and unravel its past., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate climate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts of carbon. New England is one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States (>75% forested by land area), and forest carbon is a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a major source of uncertainty and risk for policies relying on forest carbon for climate mitigation, especially as climate change is projected to alter the intensity and extent of hurricanes. To date, most research into disturbance impacts on forest carbon stocks has focused on fire. Here, we show that a single hurricane in the region can down between 121 and 250 MMTCO 2 e or 4.6%-9.4% of the total aboveground forest carbon, much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests (16 MMTCO 2 e year -1 ). However, emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted. Reconstructing hurricanes with the HURRECON and EXPOS models across a range of historical and projected wind speeds, we find that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase in the extent of high-severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased wind speed also leads to unprecedented geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions traditionally less affected by hurricanes. Given that a single hurricane can emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestered by forests in New England, the status of these forests as a durable carbon sink is uncertain. Understanding the risks to forest carbon stocks from disturbances is necessary for decision-makers relying on forests as a NCS., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Stratospheric ozone, which has been depleted in recent decades by the release of anthropogenic gases, is critical for shielding the biosphere against ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation. Although the ozone layer is expected to recover before the end of the 21st century, a hole over Antarctica continues to appear each year. Ozone depletion usually peaks between September and October, when fortunately, most Antarctic terrestrial vegetation and soil biota is frozen, dormant and protected under snow cover. Similarly, much marine life is protected by sea ice cover. The ozone hole used to close before the onset of Antarctic summer, meaning that most biota were not exposed to severe springtime UV-B fluxes. However, in recent years, ozone depletion has persisted into December, which marks the beginning of austral summer. Early summertime ozone depletion is concerning: high incident UV-B radiation coincident with snowmelt and emergence of vegetation will mean biota is more exposed. The start of summer is also peak breeding season for many animals, thus extreme UV-B exposure (UV index up to 14) may come at a vulnerable time in their life cycle. Climate change, including changing wind patterns and strength, and particularly declining sea ice, are likely to compound UV-B exposure of Antarctic organisms, through earlier ice and snowmelt, heatwaves and droughts. Antarctic field research conducted decades ago tended to study UV impacts in isolation and more research that considers multiple climate impacts, and the true magnitude and timing of current UV increases is needed., (Global Change Biology© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Seagrass is an important natural attribute of 28 World Heritage (WH) properties. These WH seagrass habitats provide a wide range of services to adjacent ecosystems and human communities, and are one of the largest natural carbon sinks on the planet. Climate change is considered the greatest and fastest-growing threat to natural WH properties and evidence of climate-related impacts on seagrass habitats has been growing. The main objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of WH seagrass habitats to location-specific key climate stressors. Quantitative surveys of seagrass experts and site managers were used to assess exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of WH seagrass habitats to climate stressors, following the Climate Vulnerability Index approach. Over half of WH seagrass habitats have high vulnerability to climate change, mainly from the long-term increase in sea-surface temperature and short-term marine heatwaves. Potential impacts from climate change and certainty scores associated with them were higher than reported by a similar survey-based study from 10 years prior, indicating a shift in stakeholder perspectives during the past decade. Additionally, seagrass experts' opinions on the cumulative impacts of climate and direct-anthropogenic stressors revealed that high temperature in combination with high suspended sediments, eutrophication and hypoxia is likely to provoke a synergistic cumulative (negative) impact (p < .05). A key component contributing to the high vulnerability assessments was the low adaptive capacity; however, discrepancies between adaptive capacity scores and qualitative responses suggest that managers of WH seagrass habitats might not be adequately equipped to respond to climate change impacts. This thematic assessment provides valuable information to help prioritize conservation actions, monitoring activities and research in WH seagrass habitats. It also demonstrates the utility of a systematic framework to evaluate the vulnerability of thematic groups of protected areas that share a specific attribute., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co-benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co-benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes. Not all climate mitigation strategies are equally effective at producing biodiversity co-benefits, some in fact are counterproductive. Moreover, social implications are often overlooked within the climate-biodiversity nexus. Protecting biodiverse and carbon-rich natural environments, ecological restoration of potentially biodiverse and carbon-rich habitats, the deliberate creation of novel habitats, taking into consideration a locally adapted and meaningful (i.e. full consequences considered) mix of these measures, can result in the most robust win-win solutions. These can be further enhanced by avoidance of narrow goals, taking long-term views and minimizing further losses of intact ecosystems. In this review paper, we first discuss various climate mitigation actions that evidence demonstrates can negatively impact biodiversity, resulting in unseen and unintended negative consequences. We then examine climate mitigation actions that co-deliver biodiversity and societal benefits. We give examples of these win-win solutions, categorized as 'protect, restore, manage and create', in different regions of the world that could be expanded, upscaled and used for further innovation., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Ocean deoxygenation is one of the major consequences of climate change. In coastal waters, this process can be exacerbated by eutrophication, which is contributing to an alarming increase in the so-called 'dead zones' globally. Despite its severity, the effect of reduced dissolved oxygen has only been studied for a very limited number of organisms, compared to other climate change impacts such as ocean acidification and warming. Here, we experimentally assessed the response of sponges to moderate and severe simulated hypoxic events. We ran three laboratory experiments on four species from two different temperate oceans (NE Atlantic and SW Pacific). Sponges were exposed to a total of five hypoxic treatments, with increasing severity (3.3, 1.6, 0.5, 0.4 and 0.13 mg O 2  L -1 , over 7-12-days). We found that sponges are generally very tolerant of hypoxia. All the sponges survived in the experimental conditions, except Polymastia crocea, which showed significant mortality at the lowest oxygen concentration (0.13 mg O 2  L -1 , lethal median time: 286 h). In all species except Suberites carnosus, hypoxic conditions do not significantly affect respiration rate down to 0.4 mg O 2  L -1 , showing that sponges can uptake oxygen at very low concentrations in the surrounding environment. Importantly, sponges displayed species-specific phenotypic modifications in response to the hypoxic treatments, including physiological, morphological and behavioural changes. This phenotypic plasticity likely represents an adaptive strategy to live in reduced or low oxygen water. Our results also show that a single sponge species (i.e., Suberites australiensis) can display different strategies at different oxygen concentrations. Compared to other sessile organisms, sponges generally showed higher tolerance to hypoxia, suggesting that sponges could be favoured and survive in future deoxygenated oceans., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The sustainability of global seafood supply to meet increasing demand is facing several challenges, including increasing consumption levels due to a growing human population, fisheries resources over-exploitation and climate change. Whilst growth in seafood production from capture fisheries is limited, global mariculture production is expanding. However, climate change poses risks to the potential seafood production from mariculture. Here, we apply a global mariculture production model that accounts for changing ocean conditions, suitable marine area for farming, fishmeal and fish oil production, farmed species dietary demand, farmed fish price and global seafood demand to project mariculture production under two climate and socio-economic scenarios. We include 85 farmed marine fish and mollusc species, representing about 70% of all mariculture production in 2015. Results show positive global mariculture production changes by the mid and end of the 21 st century relative to the 2000s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario with an increase of 17%±5 and 33%±6, respectively. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an increase of 8%±5 is projected, with production peaking by mid-century and declining by 16%±5 towards the end of the 21 st century. More than 25% of mariculture-producing nations are projected to lose 40%-90% of their current mariculture production potential under SSP5-8.5 by mid-century. Projected impacts are mainly due to the direct ocean warming effects on farmed species and suitable marine areas, and the indirect impacts of changing availability of forage fishes supplies to produce aquafeed. Fishmeal replacement with alternative protein can lower climate impacts on a subset of finfish production. However, such adaptation measures do not apply to regions dominated by non-feed-based farming (i.e. molluscs) and regions losing substantial marine areas suitable for mariculture. Our study highlights the importance of strong mitigation efforts and the need for different climate adaptation options tailored to the diversity of mariculture systems, to support climate-resilient mariculture development., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Global warming is causing significant losses of marine ice around the polar regions. In Antarctica, the retreat of tidewater glaciers is opening up novel, low-energy habitats (fjords) that have the potential to provide a negative feedback loop to climate change. These fjords are being colonized by organisms on and within the sediment and act as a sink for particulate matter. So far, blue carbon potential in Antarctic habitats has mainly been estimated using epifaunal megazoobenthos (although some studies have also considered macrozoobenthos). We investigated two further pathways of carbon storage and potential sequestration by measuring the concentration of carbon of infaunal macrozoobenthos and total organic carbon (TOC) deposited in the sediment. We took samples along a temporal gradient since time of last glacier ice cover (1-1000 years) at three fjords along the West Antarctic Peninsula. We tested the hypothesis that seabed carbon standing stock would be mainly driven by time since last glacier covered. However, results showed this to be much more complex. Infauna were highly variable over this temporal gradient and showed similar total mass of carbon standing stock per m 2 as literature estimates of Antarctic epifauna. TOC mass in the sediment, however, was an order of magnitude greater than stocks of infaunal and epifaunal carbon and increased with time since last ice cover. Thus, blue carbon stocks and recent gains around Antarctica are likely much higher than previously estimated as is their negative feedback on climate change., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Nature-based solutions (NbS)-solutions to societal challenges that involve working with nature-have recently gained popularity as an integrated approach that can address climate change and biodiversity loss, while supporting sustainable development. Although well-designed NbS can deliver multiple benefits for people and nature, much of the recent limelight has been on tree planting for carbon sequestration. There are serious concerns that this is distracting from the need to rapidly phase out use of fossil fuels and protect existing intact ecosystems. There are also concerns that the expansion of forestry framed as a climate change mitigation solution is coming at the cost of carbon rich and biodiverse native ecosystems and local resource rights. Here, we discuss the promise and pitfalls of the NbS framing and its current political traction, and we present recommendations on how to get the message right. We urge policymakers, practitioners and researchers to consider the synergies and trade-offs associated with NbS and to follow four guiding principles to enable NbS to provide sustainable benefits to society: (1) NbS are not a substitute for the rapid phase out of fossil fuels; (2) NbS involve a wide range of ecosystems on land and in the sea, not just forests; (3) NbS are implemented with the full engagement and consent of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in a way that respects their cultural and ecological rights; and (4) NbS should be explicitly designed to provide measurable benefits for biodiversity. Only by following these guidelines will we design robust and resilient NbS that address the urgent challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss, sustaining nature and people together, now and into the future., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Current climate change aggravates human health hazards posed by heat stress. Forests can locally mitigate this by acting as strong thermal buffers, yet potential mediation by forest ecological characteristics remains underexplored. We report over 14 months of hourly microclimate data from 131 forest plots across four European countries and compare these to open-field controls using physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) to reflect human thermal perception. Forests slightly tempered cold extremes, but the strongest buffering occurred under very hot conditions (PET >35°C), where forests reduced strong to extreme heat stress day occurrence by 84.1%. Mature forests cooled the microclimate by 12.1 to 14.5°C PET under, respectively, strong and extreme heat stress conditions. Even young plantations reduced those conditions by 10°C PET. Forest structure strongly modulated the buffering capacity, which was enhanced by increasing stand density, canopy height and canopy closure. Tree species composition had a more modest yet significant influence: that is, strongly shade-casting, small-leaved evergreen species amplified cooling. Tree diversity had little direct influences, though indirect effects through stand structure remain possible. Forests in general, both young and mature, are thus strong thermal stress reducers, but their cooling potential can be even further amplified, given targeted (urban) forest management that considers these new insights., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heterogeneous and depend on a variety of factors related to soils, topography, climate, land cover/vegetation type, successional dynamics, time since fire, season, and fire severity. However, how these variables interact to influence albedo is not well understood, and quantifying these relationships and predicting postfire albedo becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and management frameworks evolve to consider climate impacts. Here we developed a MODIS-derived 'blue sky' albedo product and a novel machine learning modeling framework to predict fire-driven changes in albedo under historical and future climate scenarios across boreal North America. Converted to radiative forcing (RF), we estimated that fires generate an annual mean cooling of -1.77 ± 1.35 W/m 2 from albedo under historical climate conditions (1971-2000) integrated over 70 years postfire. Increasing postfire albedo along a south-north climatic gradient was offset by a nearly opposite gradient in solar insolation, such that large-scale spatial patterns in RF were minimal. Our models suggest that climate change will lead to decreases in mean annual postfire albedo, and hence a decreasing strength of the negative RF, a trend dominated by decreased snow cover in spring months. Considering the range of future climate scenarios and model uncertainties, we estimate that for fires burning in the current era (2016) the cooling effect from long-term postfire albedo will be reduced by 15%-28% due to climate change., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is altering temperature and precipitation, resulting in widespread plant mortality and shifts in plant distributions. Plants growing in soil types with low water holding capacity may experience intensified effects of reduced water availability as a result of climate change. Furthermore, complex biotic interactions between plants and soil organisms may mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change. This 3-year field experiment observed the performance of Bouteloua gracilis ecotypes that were transplanted across an environmental gradient with either sympatric soil from the seed source location or allopatric soil from the location that plants were transplanted into. We also inoculated plants with either sympatric or allopatric soil biotic communities to test: (1) how changes in climate alone influence plant growth, (2) how soil types interact with climate to influence plant growth, and (3) the role of soil biota in mitigating plant migration to novel environments. As expected, plants moved to cooler-wetter sites exhibited enhanced growth; however, plants moved to warmer-drier sites responded variably depending on the provenance of their soil and inoculum. Soil and inoculum provenance had little influence on the performance of plants moved to cooler-wetter sites, but at warmer-drier sites they were important predictors of plant biomass, seed set, and specific leaf area. Specifically, transplants inoculated with their sympatric soil biota and grown in their sympatric soil were as large as or larger than reference plants grown at the seed source locations; however, individuals inoculated with allopatric soil biota were smaller than reference site individuals at warmer, drier sites. These findings demonstrate complicated plant responses to various aspects of environmental novelty where communities of soil organisms may help ameliorate stress. The belowground microbiome of plants should be considered to predict the responses of vegetation more accurately to climate change., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Drought has broad and deep impacts on vegetation. Studies on the effects of drought on vegetation have been conducted over years. Recently, the cumulative effect of drought is recognized as another key factor affecting plant growth. However, global-scale studies on this phenomenon are still lacking. Thus, based on new satellite based gross primary productivity (GPP) and multi-temporal scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index data sets, we explored the cumulative effect duration (CED) of drought on global vegetation GPP and analyzed its variability across elevations and climatic zones. The main findings were as follows: (1) The cumulative effect of drought on GPP was widespread, with an average CED of 4.89 months. (2) CED of drought on GPP varied among vegetation types. Specifically, grasslands showed the longest duration, with an average value of 5.28 months, followed by shrublands (5.09 months), wetlands (5.03 months), croplands (4.85 months), savannas (4.58 months), and forestlands (4.57 months). (3) CED of drought on GPP changes with climate conditions. It decreased with the decrease of precipitation in the driest month (P dry ) and mean annual precipitation in tropical and arid climate zones, respectively. In both temperate and cold climate zones, CED of drought on GPP was shorter in areas with dry winter than that in areas with dry summer. It increased with the decrease of mean annual air temperature in tropical climate zones and decreased with the increase of summer temperature in temperate and cold climatic zones. (4) With increasing elevation, CED of drought on GPP showed a pattern of increasing (0-3000 m), then decreasing (3000-5000 m), and increasing again (>5000 m). Our findings highlight the heterogeneity of CED of drought on GPP, owing to differences in vegetation types, long-term hydrothermal conditions, elevation, etc. The results could deepen our understanding of the effects of drought on global vegetation., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Rapid human-driven environmental changes are impacting animal populations around the world. Currently, land-use and climate change are two of the biggest pressures facing biodiversity. However, studies investigating the impacts of these pressures on population trends often do not consider potential interactions between climate and land-use change. Further, a population's climatic position (how close the ambient temperature and precipitation conditions are to the species' climatic tolerance limits) is known to influence responses to climate change but has yet to be investigated with regard to its influence on land-use change responses over time. Consequently, important variations across species' ranges in responses to environmental changes may be being overlooked. Here, we combine data from the Living Planet and BioTIME databases to carry out a global analysis exploring the impacts of land use, habitat loss, climatic position, climate change and the interactions between these variables, on vertebrate population trends. By bringing these datasets together, we analyse over 7,000 populations across 42 countries. We find that land-use change is interacting with climate change and a population's climatic position to influence rates of population change. Moreover, features of a population's local landscape (such as surrounding land cover) play important roles in these interactions. For example, populations in agricultural land uses where maximum temperatures were closer to their hot thermal limit, declined at faster rates when there had also been rapid losses in surrounding semi-natural habitat. The complex interactions between these variables on populations highlight the importance of taking intraspecific variation and interactions between local and global pressures into account. Understanding how drivers of change are interacting and impacting populations, and how this varies spatially, is critical if we are to identify populations at risk, predict species' responses to future environmental changes and produce suitable conservation strategies., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems will worsen public health issues like allergic diseases. Birch trees (Betula spp.) are important sources of aeroallergens in Central and Northern Europe. Birches are vulnerable to climate change as these trees are sensitive to increased temperatures and summer droughts. This study aims to examine the effect of climate change on airborne birch pollen concentrations in Central Europe using Bavaria in Southern Germany as a case study. Pollen data from 28 monitoring stations in Bavaria were used in this study, with time series of up 30 years long. An integrative approach was used to model airborne birch pollen concentrations taking into account drivers influencing birch tree abundance and birch pollen production and projections made according to different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Birch tree abundance is projected to decrease in parts of Bavaria at different rates, depending on the climate scenario, particularly in current centres of the species distribution. Climate change is expected to result in initial increases in pollen load but, due to the reduction in birch trees, the amount of airborne birch pollen will decrease at lower altitudes. Conversely, higher altitude areas will experience expansions in birch tree distribution and subsequent increases in airborne birch pollen in the future. Even considering restrictions for migration rates, increases in pollen load are likely in Southwestern areas, where positive trends have already been detected during the last three decades. Integrating models for the distribution and abundance of pollen sources and the drivers that control birch pollen production allowed us to model airborne birch pollen concentrations in the future. The magnitude of changes depends on location and climate change scenario., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, one of the world's most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait-based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch-based vulnerability with a suite of socio-economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries' exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait-based approach on targeted marine species with socio-economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Bumblebees are ubiquitous, cold-adapted eusocial bees found worldwide from subarctic to tropical regions of the world. They are key pollinators in most temperate and boreal ecosystems, and both wild and managed populations are significant contributors to agricultural pollination services. Despite their broad ecological niche at the genus level, bumblebee species are threatened by climate change, particularly by rising average temperatures, intensifying seasonality and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. While some temperature extremes may be offset at the individual or colony level through temperature regulation, most bumblebees are expected to exhibit specific plastic responses, selection in various key traits, and/or range contractions under even the mildest climate change. In this review, we provide an in-depth and up-to-date review on the various ways by which bumblebees overcome the threats associated with current and future global change. We use examples relevant to the fields of bumblebee physiology, morphology, behaviour, phenology, and dispersal to illustrate and discuss the contours of this new theoretical framework. Furthermore, we speculate on the extent to which adaptive responses to climate change may be influenced by bumblebees' capacity to disperse and track suitable climate conditions. Closing the knowledge gap and improving our understanding of bumblebees' adaptability or avoidance behaviour to different climatic circumstances will be necessary to improve current species climate response models. These models are essential to make correct predictions of species vulnerability in the face of future climate change and human-induced environmental changes to unfold appropriate future conservation strategies., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse the long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by -2.2, -0.7 and -1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (-1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Globally, about 50% of all arable soils are classified as acidic. As crop and plant growth are significantly hampered under acidic soil conditions, many farmers, but increasingly as well forest managers, apply lime to raise the soil pH. Besides its direct effect on soil pH, liming also affects soil C and nutrient cycles and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. In this meta-analysis, we reviewed 1570 observations reported in 121 field-based studies worldwide, to assess liming effects on soil GHG fluxes and plant productivity. We found that liming significantly increases crop yield by 36.3%. Also, soil organic C (SOC) stocks were found to increase by 4.51% annually, though soil respiration is stimulated too (7.57%). Moreover, liming was found to reduce soil N 2 O emission by 21.3%, yield-scaled N 2 O emission by 21.5%, and CH 4 emission and yield-scaled CH 4 emission from rice paddies by 19.0% and 12.4%, respectively. Assuming that all acid agricultural soils are limed periodically, liming results in a total GHG balance benefit of 633-749 Tg CO 2 -eq year -1 due to reductions in soil N 2 O emissions (0.60-0.67 Tg N 2 O-N year -1 ) and paddy soil CH 4 emissions (1.75-2.21 Tg CH 4  year -1 ) and increases in SOC stocks (65.7-110 Tg C year -1 ). However, this comes at the cost of an additional CO 2 release (c. 624-656 Tg CO 2  year -1 ) deriving from lime mining, transport and application, and lime dissolution, so that the overall GHG balance is likely neutral. Nevertheless, liming of acid agricultural soils will increase yields by at least 6.64 × 10 8  Mg year -1 , covering the food supply of 876 million people. Overall, our study shows for the first time that a general strategy of liming of acid agricultural soils is likely to result in an increasing sustainability of global agricultural production, indicating the potential benefit of liming acid soils for climate change mitigation and food security., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate change because habitat throughout their entire migration cycle must be suitable for the species to persist. For migratory species in rivers, predicting climate change impacts is especially difficult because there is a lack of spatially continuous and seasonally varying stream temperature data, habitat conditions can vary for an individual throughout its life cycle, and vulnerability can vary by life stage and season. To predict thermal impacts on migratory riverine populations, we first expanded a spatial stream network model to predict mean monthly temperature for 465,775 river km in the western U.S., and then applied simple yet plausible future stream temperature change scenarios. We then joined stream temperature predictions to 44,396 spatial observations and life-stage-specific phenology (timing) for 26 ecotypes (i.e., geographically distinct population groups expressing one of the four distinct seasonal migration patterns) of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a phenotypically diverse anadromous salmonid that is ecologically and economically important but declining throughout its range. Thermal stress, assessed for each life stage and ecotype based on federal criteria, was influenced by migration timing rather than latitude, elevation, or migration distance such that sympatric ecotypes often showed differential thermal exposure. Early-migration phenotypes were especially vulnerable due to prolonged residency in inland streams during the summer. We evaluated the thermal suitability of 31,699 stream km which are currently blocked by dams to explore reintroduction above dams as an option to mitigate the negative effects of our warmer stream temperature scenarios. Our results showed that negative impacts of stream temperature warming can be offset for almost all ecotypes if formerly occupied habitat above dams is made available. Our approach of combining spatial distribution and phenology data with spatially explicit and temporally explicit temperature predictions enables researchers to examine thermal exposure of migrating populations that use seasonally varying habitats., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO 2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO 2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between -8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and -22 to -6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO 2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO 2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO 2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate change remains unresolved. Here we use 18-year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time-series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought-avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought-tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests-a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region-appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non-protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field-based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change currently have considerable political traction. However, national intentions to deploy NbS have yet to be fully translated into evidence-based targets and action on the ground. To enable NbS policy and practice to be better informed by science, we produced the first global systematic map of evidence on the effectiveness of nature-based interventions for addressing the impacts of climate change and hydrometeorological hazards on people. Most of the interventions in natural or semi-natural ecosystems were reported to have ameliorated adverse climate impacts. Conversely, interventions involving created ecosystems (e.g., afforestation) were associated with trade-offs; such studies primarily reported reduced soil erosion or increased vegetation cover but lower water availability, although this evidence was geographically restricted. Overall, studies reported more synergies than trade-offs between reduced climate impacts and broader ecological, social, and climate change mitigation outcomes. In addition, nature-based interventions were most often shown to be as effective or more so than alternative interventions for addressing climate impacts. However, there were substantial gaps in the evidence base. Notably, there were few studies of the cost-effectiveness of interventions compared to alternatives and few integrated assessments considering broader social and ecological outcomes. There was also a bias in evidence toward the Global North, despite communities in the Global South being generally more vulnerable to climate impacts. To build resilience to climate change worldwide, it is imperative that we protect and harness the benefits that nature can provide, which can only be done effectively if informed by a strengthened evidence base., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long-term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast-flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Coastal and intertidal habitats are at the forefront of anthropogenic influence and environmental change. The species occupying these habitats are adapted to a world of extremes, which may render them robust to the changing climate or more vulnerable if they are at their physiological limits. We characterized the diurnal, seasonal and interannual patterns of flux in biogeochemistry across an intertidal gradient on a temperate sandstone platform in eastern Australia over 6 years (2009-2015) and present a synthesis of our current understanding of this habitat in context with global change. We used rock pools as natural mesocosms to determine biogeochemistry dynamics and patterns of eco-stress experienced by resident biota. In situ measurements and discrete water samples were collected night and day during neap low tide events to capture diurnal biogeochemistry cycles. Calculation of pH T using total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) revealed that the mid-intertidal habitat exhibited the greatest flux over the years (pH T 7.52-8.87), and over a single tidal cycle (1.11 pH T units), while the low-intertidal (pH T 7.82-8.30) and subtidal (pH T 7.87-8.30) were less variable. Temperature flux was also greatest in the mid-intertidal (8.0-34.5°C) and over a single tidal event (14°C range), as typical of temperate rocky shores. Mean TA and DIC increased at night and decreased during the day, with the most extreme conditions measured in the mid-intertidal owing to prolonged emersion periods. Temporal sampling revealed that net ecosystem calcification and production were highest during the day and lowest at night, particularly in the mid-intertidal. Characterization of biogeochemical fluctuations in a world of extremes demonstrates the variable conditions that intertidal biota routinely experience and highlight potential microhabitat-specific vulnerabilities and climate change refugia., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The change towards a food systems approach in the IPCC reflects a needed paradigm shift in the science-policy interface, and particularly in the climate change and agri-food research communities. A systems approach allows assessing simultaneously both adaptation and mitigation options and to select those more effective strategies in addressing climate change. There are still limitations that need to be addressed regarding the number of assessed crops, sectors, countries and social groups representation in order to overcome the historical epistemic injustice of the IPCC. This article is a commentary on Porter et al., 25, 2518-2529., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and sustainable intensification (SI) are widely claimed to be high-potential solutions to address the interlinked challenges of food security and climate change. Operationalization of these promising concepts is still lacking and potential trade-offs are often not considered in the current continental- to global-scale assessments. Here we discuss the effect of spatial variability in the context of the implementation of climate-smart practices on two central indicators, namely yield development and carbon sequestration, considering biophysical limitations of suggested benefits, socioeconomic and institutional barriers to adoption, and feedback mechanisms across scales. We substantiate our arguments by an illustrative analysis using the example of a hypothetical large-scale adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) in sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that, up to now, large-scale assessments widely neglect the spatially variable effects of climate-smart practices, leading to inflated statements about co-benefits of agricultural production and climate change mitigation potentials. There is an urgent need to account for spatial variability in assessments of climate-smart practices and target those locations where synergies in land functions can be maximized in order to meet the global targets. Therefore, we call for more attention toward spatial planning and landscape optimization approaches in the operationalization of CSA and SI to navigate potential trade-offs., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO 2 /year at 200 US$/tCO 2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO 2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate-driven sea ice loss has led to changes in the timing of key biological events in the Arctic, however, the consequences and rate of these changes remain largely unknown. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) undergo seasonal changes in energy stores in relation to foraging opportunities and habitat conditions. Declining sea ice has been linked to reduced body condition in some subpopulations, however, the specific timing and duration of the feeding period when bears acquire most of their energy stores and its relationship to the timing of ice break-up is poorly understood. We used community-based sampling to investigate seasonality in body condition (energy stores) of polar bears in Nunavut, Canada, and examined the influence of sea ice variables. We used adipose tissue lipid content as an index of body condition for 1,206 polar bears harvested from 2010-2017 across five subpopulations with varying seasonal ice conditions: Baffin Bay (October-August), Davis Strait and Foxe Basin (year-round), Gulf of Boothia and Lancaster Sound (August-May). Similar seasonal patterns were found in body condition across subpopulations with bears at their nadir of condition in the spring, followed by fat accumulation past break-up date and subsequent peak body condition in autumn, indicating that bears are actively foraging in late spring and early summer. Late season feeding implies that even minor advances in the timing of break-up may have detrimental effects on foraging opportunities, body condition, and subsequent reproduction and survival. The magnitude of seasonal changes in body condition varied across the study area, presumably driven by local environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate how community-based monitoring of polar bears can reveal population-level responses to climate warming in advance of detectable demographic change. Our data on the seasonal timing of polar bear foraging and energy storage should inform predictive models of the effects of climate-mediated sea ice loss., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change is causing range shifts in many marine species, with implications for biodiversity and fisheries. Previous research has mainly focused on how species' ranges will respond to changing ocean temperatures, without accounting for other environmental covariates that could affect future distribution patterns. Here, we integrate habitat suitability modeling approaches, a high-resolution global climate model projection, and detailed fishery-independent and -dependent faunal datasets from one of the most extensively monitored marine ecosystems-the U.S. Northeast Shelf. We project the responses of 125 species in this region to climate-driven changes in multiple oceanographic factors (e.g., ocean temperature, salinity, sea surface height) and seabed characteristics (i.e., rugosity and depth). Comparing model outputs based on ocean temperature and seabed characteristics to those that also incorporated salinity and sea surface height (proxies for primary productivity and ocean circulation features), we explored how an emphasis on ocean temperature in projecting species' range shifts can impact assessments of species' climate vulnerability. We found that multifactor habitat suitability models performed better in explaining and predicting species historical distribution patterns than temperature-based models. We also found that multifactor models provided more concerning assessments of species' future distribution patterns than temperature-based models, projecting that species' ranges will largely shift northward and become more contracted and fragmented over time. Our results suggest that using ocean temperature as a primary determinant of range shifts can significantly alter projections, masking species' climate vulnerability, and potentially forestalling proactive management., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Near‐term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub‐daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change prevent managers from relying on historical averages for predicting future conditions, necessitating near‐term forecasts to mitigate freshwater risks to human health and safety (e.g., flash floods, harmful algal blooms) and ecosystem services (e.g., water‐related recreation and tourism). To assess the current state of freshwater forecasting and identify opportunities for future progress, we synthesized freshwater forecasting papers published in the past 5 years. We found that freshwater forecasting is currently dominated by near‐term forecasts of water quantity and that near‐term water quality forecasts are fewer in number and in the early stages of development (i.e., non‐operational) despite their potential as important preemptive decision support tools. We contend that more freshwater quality forecasts are critically needed and that near‐term water quality forecasting is poised to make substantial advances based on examples of recent progress in forecasting methodology, workflows, and end‐user engagement. For example, current water quality forecasting systems can predict water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and algal bloom/toxin events 5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy. Continued progress in freshwater quality forecasting will be greatly accelerated by adapting tools and approaches from freshwater quantity forecasting (e.g., machine learning modeling methods). In addition, future development of effective operational freshwater quality forecasts will require substantive engagement of end users throughout the forecast process, funding, and training opportunities. Looking ahead, near‐term forecasting provides a hopeful future for freshwater management in the face of increased variability and risk due to global change, and we encourage the freshwater scientific community to incorporate forecasting approaches in water quality research and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperatures associated with climate change have been shown to negatively affect the photosynthetic rates of boreal forest tree saplings at their southern range limits. To quantify the responses of ectomycorrhizal ( EM) fungal communities associated with poorly performing hosts, we sampled the roots of Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea saplings growing in the B4Warmed (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment. EM fungi on the root systems of both hosts were compared from ambient and +3.4 °C air and soil warmed plots at two sites in northern Minnesota. EM fungal communities were assessed with high-throughput sequencing along with measures of plant photosynthesis, soil temperature, moisture, and nitrogen. Warming selectively altered EM fungal community composition at both the phylum and genus levels, but had no significant effect on EM fungal operational taxonomic unit ( OTU) diversity. Notably, warming strongly favored EM Ascomycetes and EM fungi with short-contact hyphal exploration types. Declining host photosynthetic rates were also significantly inversely correlated with EM Ascomycete and EM short-contact exploration type abundance, which may reflect a shift to less carbon demanding fungi due to lower photosynthetic capacity. Given the variation in EM host responses to warming, both within and between ecosystems, better understanding the link between host performance and EM fungal community structure will to clarify how climate change effects cascade belowground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the central question of how climate change influences tree growth within the context of global warming, we used dendroclimatological analysis to understand the reactions of four major boreal tree species – Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, Picea mariana, and Pinus banksiana– to climatic variations along a broad latitudinal gradient from 46 to 54°N in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. Tree-ring chronologies from 34 forested stands distributed at a 1° interval were built, transformed into principal components (PCs), and analyzed through bootstrapped correlation analysis over the period 1950–2003 to identify climate factors limiting the radial growth and the detailed radial growth–climate association along the gradient. All species taken together, previous summer temperature (negative influences), and current January and March–April temperatures (positive influences) showed the most consistent relationships with radial growth across the gradient. Combined with the identified species/site-specific climate factors, our study suggested that moisture conditions during the year before radial growth played a dominant role in positively regulating P. tremuloides growth, whereas January temperature and growing season moisture conditions positively impacted growth of B. papyrifera. Both P. mariana and P. banksiana were positively affected by the current-year winter and spring or whole growing season temperatures over the entire range of our corridor. Owing to the impacts of different climate factors on growth, these boreal species showed inconsistent responsiveness to recent warming at the transition zone, where B. papyrifera, P. mariana, and P. banksiana would be the most responsive species, whereas P. tremuloides might be the least. Under continued warming, B. papyrifera stands located north of 49°N, P. tremuloides at northern latitudes, and P. mariana and P. banksiana stands located north of 47°N might benefit from warming winter and spring temperatures to enhance their radial growth in the coming decades, whereas other southern stands might be decreasing in radial growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to examine the effects of elevated carbon dioxide [CO2] and ozone [O3] and their interaction on wood chemistry and anatomy of five clones of 3-year-old trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). Wood chemistry was studied also on paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) seedling-origin saplings of the same age. Material for the study was collected from the Aspen Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in Rhinelander, WI, USA, where the saplings had been exposed to four treatments: control (C; ambient CO2, ambient O3), elevated CO2 (560ppm during daylight hours), elevated O3 (1.5 × ambient during daylight hours) and their combination (CO2 + O3) for three growing seasons (1998–2000). Wood chemistry responses to the elevated CO2 and O3 treatments differed between species. Aspen was most responsive, while maple was the least responsive of the three tree species. Aspen genotype affected the responses of wood chemistry and, to some extent, wood structure to the treatments. The lignin concentration increased under elevated O3 in four clones of aspen and in birch. However, elevated CO2 ameliorated the effect. In two aspen clones, nitrogen in wood samples decreased under combined exposure to CO2 and O2. Soluble sugar concentration in one aspen clone and starch concentration in two clones were increased by elevated CO2. In aspen wood, α-cellulose concentration changed under elevated CO2, decreasing under ambient 03 and slightly increasing under elevated O3. Hemicellulose concentration in birch was decreased by elevated CO2 and increased by elevated O3. In aspen, elevated O3 induced statistically significant reductions in distance from the pith to the bark and vessel lumen diameter, as well as increased wall thickness and wall percentage, and in one clone, decreased fibre lumen diameter. Our results show that juvenile wood properties of broadleaves, depending on species and genotype, were altered by atmospheric gas concentrations predicted for the year 2050 and that CO2 ameliorates some adverse effects of elevated O3 on wood chemistry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical regions contain ecologically and socio-economically important habitats, and are home to about 3.8 billion people, many of which directly depend on tropical coastal waters for their well-being. At the basis of these ecosystems are biogeochemical processes. Climate change is expected to have a greater impact in the tropics compared to temperate regions because of the relatively stable environmental conditions found there. However, it was surprising to find only 660 research articles published focusing on the impact of climate change on the biogeochemistry of coastal tropical waters compared to 4823 for temperate waters. In this perspective, we highlight important topics in need of further research. Specifically, we suggest that in tropical regions compared to temperate counterparts climate change stressors will be experienced differently, that organisms have a lower acclimation capacity, and that long-term baseline biogeochemical datasets useful for quantifying future changes are lacking. The low number of research papers on the impacts of climate change in coastal tropical regions is likely due to a mix of reasons including limited resources for research and limited number of long time series in many developing tropical countries. Finally, we propose some action points that we hope will stimulate more studies in tropical coastal waters., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and three time periods: 1991-2010 (recent past), 2041-2060 (mid-century) and 2081-2100 (end-century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90-day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end-century/SSP5-8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop-growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo-Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End-century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid-century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions-reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub-Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor-intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning., (© 2024 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Land‐use change is considered the greatest threat to nature, having caused worldwide declines in the abundance, diversity, and health of species and ecosystems. Despite increasing research on this global change driver, there are still challenges to forming an effective synthesis. The estimated impact of land‐use change on biodiversity can depend on location, research methods, and taxonomic focus, with recent global meta‐analyses reaching disparate conclusions. Here, we critically appraise this research body and our ability to reach a reliable consensus. We employ named entity recognition to analyze more than 4000 abstracts, alongside full reading of 100 randomly selected papers. We highlight the broad range of study designs and methodologies used; the most common being local space‐for‐time comparisons that classify land use in situ. Species metrics including abundance, distribution, and diversity were measured more frequently than complex responses such as demography, vital rates, and behavior. We identified taxonomic biases, with vertebrates well represented while detritivores were largely missing. Omitting this group may hinder our understanding of how land‐use change affects ecosystem feedback. Research was heavily biased toward temperate forested biomes in North America and Europe, with warmer regions being acutely underrepresented despite offering potential insights into the future effects of land‐use change under novel climates. Various land‐use histories were covered, although more research in understudied regions including Africa and the Middle East is required to capture regional differences in the form of current and historical land‐use practices. Failure to address these challenges will impede our global understanding of land‐use change impacts on biodiversity, limit the reliability of future projections and have repercussions for the conservation of threatened species. Beyond identifying literature biases, we highlight the research priorities and data gaps that need urgent attention and offer perspectives on how to move forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]