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Nanoparticle pollution has been shown to affect various organisms. However, the effects of nanoparticles on species interactions, and the role of species traits, such as body size, in modulating these effects, are not well‐understood. We addressed this issue using competing freshwater phytoplankton species exposed to copper oxide nanoparticles. Increasing nanoparticle concentration resulted in decreased phytoplankton species growth rates and community productivity (both abundance and biomass). Importantly, we consistently found that nanoparticles had greater negative effects on species with smaller cell sizes, such that nanoparticle pollution weakened the competitive dominance of smaller species and promoted species diversity. Moreover, nanoparticles reduced the growth rate differences and competitive ability differences of competing species, while having little effect on species niche differences. Consequently, nanoparticle pollution reduced the selection effect on phytoplankton community abundance, but increased the selection effect on community biomass. Our results suggest cell size as a key functional trait to consider when predicting phytoplankton community structure and ecosystem functioning in the face of increasing nanopollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phytoplankton production in the Arctic Ocean is increasing due to global warming‐induced sea ice loss, which is generally assessed through satellite observations of surface chlorophyll. Here we show that a diatom bloom can occur near the seafloor rather than at the surface in the open Arctic Ocean. Light can reach the seafloor underlying nutrient‐rich bottom water after the spring bloom because the surface water becomes oligotrophic and increases transparency in the region of shallow Arctic shelf. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that diatoms formed a bloom when sediments on the shelf region, which contained abundant viable diatom cells, were exposed to even weak light reaching the seafloor (~1% of the surface irradiance). Repeated shipboard observations in the shelf region suggested that such bottom‐associated blooms occurred occasionally and the primary production was significantly underestimated by satellite observations. The average bottom irradiance (2003–2017) in the Arctic Ocean is particularly promoted in summer in the eastern East Siberian Sea and the Foxe Basin, which were ice‐covered throughout the year until the 1990s. Our results imply that hidden bottom‐associated blooms are now widespread across the shallow Arctic shelf region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a CO2 fertilization effect on plants—that is, increased photosynthetic uptake of CO2 by leaves and enhanced water‐use efficiency (WUE). Yet, the resulting net impact of CO2 fertilization on plant growth and soil moisture (SM) savings at large scale is poorly understood. Drylands provide a natural experimental setting to detect the CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth since foliage amount, plant water‐use and photosynthesis are all tightly coupled in water‐limited ecosystems. A long‐term change in the response of leaf area index (LAI, a measure of foliage amount) to changes in SM is likely to stem from changing water demand of primary productivity in water‐limited ecosystems and is a proxy for changes in WUE. Using 34‐year satellite observations of LAI and SM over tropical and subtropical drylands, we identify that a 1% increment in SM leads to 0.15% (±0.008, 95% confidence interval) and 0.51% (±0.01, 95% confidence interval) increments in LAI during 1982‒1998 and 1999‒2015, respectively. The increasing response of LAI to SM has contributed 7.2% (±3.0%, 95% confidence interval) to total dryland greening during 1999‒2015 compared to 1982‒1998. The increasing response of LAI to SM is consistent with the CO2 fertilization effect on WUE in water‐limited ecosystems, indicating that a given amount of SM has sustained greater amounts of photosynthetic foliage over time. The LAI responses to changes in SM from seven dynamic global vegetation models are not always consistent with observations, highlighting the need for improved process knowledge of terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change will impact nutrient cycles, primary production, and ecosystem structure in the world's oceans, although considerable uncertainty exists regarding the magnitude and spatial variability of these changes. Understanding how regional‐scale ocean conditions control nutrient availability and ultimately nutrient assimilation into food webs will inform how marine resources will change in response to climate. To evaluate how ocean conditions influence the assimilation of nitrogen and carbon into coastal marine food webs, we applied a novel dimension reduction analysis to a century of newly acquired molecular isotope data derived from historic harbor seal bone specimens. By measuring bulk δ13C and δ15N values of source amino acids of these top predators from 1928 to 2014, we derive indices of primary production and nitrogen resources that are assimilated into food webs. We determined coastal food webs responded to climate regimes, coastal upwelling, and freshwater discharge, yet the strength of responses to individual drivers varied across the northeast Pacific. Indices of primary production and nitrogen availability in the Gulf of Alaska were dependent on regional climate indices (i.e., North Pacific Gyre Oscillation) and upwelling. In contrast, the coastal Washington and Salish Sea food webs were associated with local indices of freshwater discharge. For some regions (eastern Bering Sea, northern Gulf of Alaska) food web‐assimilated production was coupled with nitrogen sources; however, other regions demonstrated no production‐nitrogen coupling (Salish Sea). Temporal patterns of environmental indices and isotopic data from Washington state varied about the long‐term mean with no directional trend. Data from the Gulf of Alaska, however, showed below average harbor seal δ13C values and above average ocean conditions since 1975, indicating a change in primary production in recent decades. Altogether, these findings demonstrate stable isotope data can provide useful indices of nitrogen resources and phytoplankton dynamics specific to what is assimilated by food webs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth is currently undergoing a global increase in atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a trend which is expected to continue as climate warms. This phenomenon has been associated with productivity decreases in ecosystems and yield penalties in crops, with these losses attributed to photosynthetic limitations arising from decreased stomatal conductance. Such VPD increases, however, have occurred over decades, which raises the possibility that stomatal acclimation to VPD plays an important role in determining plant productivity under high VPD. Furthermore, evidence points to more far‐ranging and complex effects of elevated VPD on plant physiology, extending to the anatomical, biochemical, and developmental levels, which could vary substantially across species. Because these complex effects are typically not considered in modeling frameworks, we conducted a quantitative literature review documenting temperature‐independent VPD effects on 112 species and 59 traits and physiological variables, in order to develop an integrated and mechanistic physiological framework. We found that VPD increase reduced yield and primary productivity, an effect that was partially mediated by stomatal acclimation, and also linked with changes in leaf anatomy, nutrient, and hormonal status. The productivity decrease was also associated with negative effects on reproductive development, and changes in architecture and growth rates that could decrease the evaporative surface or minimize embolism risk. Cross‐species quantitative relationships were found between levels of VPD increase and trait responses, and we found differences across plant groups, indicating that future VPD impacts will depend on community assembly and crop functional diversity. Our analysis confirms predictions arising from the hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, outlines a systemic physiological framework of plant responses to rising VPD, and provides recommendations for future research to better understand and mitigate VPD‐mediated climate change effects on ecosystems and agro‐systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responses of marine primary production to a changing climate are determined by a concert of multiple environmental changes, for example in temperature, light, pCO2, nutrients, and grazing. To make robust projections of future global marine primary production, it is crucial to understand multiple driver effects on phytoplankton. This meta‐analysis quantifies individual and interactive effects of dual driver combinations on marine phytoplankton growth rates. Almost 50% of the single‐species laboratory studies were excluded because central data and metadata (growth rates, carbonate system, experimental treatments) were insufficiently reported. The remaining data (42 studies) allowed for the analysis of interactions of pCO2 with temperature, light, and nutrients, respectively. Growth rates mostly respond non‐additively, whereby the interaction with increased pCO2 profusely dampens growth‐enhancing effects of high temperature and high light. Multiple and single driver effects on coccolithophores differ from other phytoplankton groups, especially in their high sensitivity to increasing pCO2. Polar species decrease their growth rate in response to high pCO2, while temperate and tropical species benefit under these conditions. Based on the observed interactions and projected changes, we anticipate primary productivity to: (a) first increase but eventually decrease in the Arctic Ocean once nutrient limitation outweighs the benefits of higher light availability; (b) decrease in the tropics and mid‐latitudes due to intensifying nutrient limitation, possibly amplified by elevated pCO2; and (c) increase in the Southern Ocean in view of higher nutrient availability and synergistic interaction with increasing pCO2. Growth‐enhancing effect of high light and warming to coccolithophores, mainly Emiliania huxleyi, might increase their relative abundance as long as not offset by acidification. Dinoflagellates are expected to increase their relative abundance due to their positive growth response to increasing pCO2 and light levels. Our analysis reveals gaps in the knowledge on multiple driver responses and provides recommendations for future work on phytoplankton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responses of marine primary production to a changing climate are determined by a concert of multiple environmental changes, for example in temperature, light, pCO2, nutrients, and grazing. To make robust projections of future global marine primary production, it is crucial to understand multiple driver effects on phytoplankton. This meta‐analysis quantifies individual and interactive effects of dual driver combinations on marine phytoplankton growth rates. Almost 50% of the single‐species laboratory studies were excluded because central data and metadata (growth rates, carbonate system, experimental treatments) were insufficiently reported. The remaining data (42 studies) allowed for the analysis of interactions of pCO2 with temperature, light, and nutrients, respectively. Growth rates mostly respond non‐additively, whereby the interaction with increased pCO2 profusely dampens growth‐enhancing effects of high temperature and high light. Multiple and single driver effects on coccolithophores differ from other phytoplankton groups, especially in their high sensitivity to increasing pCO2. Polar species decrease their growth rate in response to high pCO2, while temperate and tropical species benefit under these conditions. Based on the observed interactions and projected changes, we anticipate primary productivity to: (a) first increase but eventually decrease in the Arctic Ocean once nutrient limitation outweighs the benefits of higher light availability; (b) decrease in the tropics and mid‐latitudes due to intensifying nutrient limitation, possibly amplified by elevated pCO2; and (c) increase in the Southern Ocean in view of higher nutrient availability and synergistic interaction with increasing pCO2. Growth‐enhancing effect of high light and warming to coccolithophores, mainly Emiliania huxleyi, might increase their relative abundance as long as not offset by acidification. Dinoflagellates are expected to increase their relative abundance due to their positive growth response to increasing pCO2 and light levels. Our analysis reveals gaps in the knowledge on multiple driver responses and provides recommendations for future work on phytoplankton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants use only a fraction of their photosynthetically derived carbon for biomass production (BP). The biomass production efficiency (BPE), defined as the ratio of BP to photosynthesis, and its variation across and within vegetation types is poorly understood, which hinders our capacity to accurately estimate carbon turnover times and carbon sinks. Here, we present a new global estimation of BPE obtained by combining field measurements from 113 sites with 14 carbon cycle models. Our best estimate of global BPE is 0.41 ± 0.05, excluding cropland. The largest BPE is found in boreal forests (0.48 ± 0.06) and the lowest in tropical forests (0.40 ± 0.04). Carbon cycle models overestimate BPE, although models with carbon–nitrogen interactions tend to be more realistic. Using observation‐based estimates of global photosynthesis, we quantify the global BP of non‐cropland ecosystems of 41 ± 6 Pg C/year. This flux is less than net primary production as it does not contain carbon allocated to symbionts, used for exudates or volatile carbon compound emissions to the atmosphere. Our study reveals a positive bias of 24 ± 11% in the model‐estimated BP (10 of 14 models). When correcting models for this bias while leaving modeled carbon turnover times unchanged, we found that the global ecosystem carbon storage change during the last century is decreased by 67% (or 58 Pg C). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change involves shifts in multiple environmental factors that act in concert to shape ecological systems in ways that depend on local biotic and abiotic conditions. Little is known about the effects of combined global change stressors on phytoplankton communities, and particularly how these are mediated by distinct community properties such as productivity, grazing pressure and size distribution. Here, we tested for the effects of warming and eutrophication on phytoplankton net growth rate and C:N:P stoichiometry in two phytoplankton cell size fractions (<30 µm and >30 µm) in the presence and absence of grazing in microcosm experiments. Because effects may also depend on lake productivity, we used phytoplankton communities from three Dutch lakes spanning a trophic gradient. We measured the response of each community to multifactorial combinations of temperature, nutrient, and grazing treatments and found that nutrients elevated net growth rates and reduced carbon:nutrient ratios of all three phytoplankton communities. Warming effects on growth and stoichiometry depended on nutrient supply and lake productivity, with enhanced growth in the most productive community dominated by cyanobacteria, and strongest stoichiometric responses in the most oligotrophic community at ambient nutrient levels. Grazing effects were also most evident in the most oligotrophic community, with reduced net growth rates and phytoplankton C:P stoichiometry that suggests consumer‐driven nutrient recycling. Our experiments indicate that stoichiometric responses to warming and interactions with nutrient addition and grazing are not universal but depend on lake productivity and cell size distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) is an important metric of ecosystem functioning; however, there are little empirical data on the NPP of human‐modified ecosystems, particularly smallholder, perennial crops like cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which are extensive across the tropics. Human‐appropriated NPP (HANPP) is a measure of the proportion of a natural system's NPP that has either been reduced through land‐use change or harvested directly and, previously, has been calculated to estimate the scale of the human impact on the biosphere. Additionally, human modification can create shifts in NPP allocation and decomposition, with concomitant impacts on the carbon cycle. This study presents the results of 3 years of intensive monitoring of forest and smallholder cocoa farms across disturbance, management intensity, distance from forest and farm age gradients. We measured among the highest reported NPP values in tropical forest, 17.57 ± 2.1 and 17.7 ± 1.6 Mg C ha−1 year−1 for intact and logged forest, respectively; however, the average NPP of cocoa farms was still higher, 18.8 ± 2.5 Mg C ha−1 year−1, which we found was driven by cocoa pod production. We found a dramatic shift in litterfall residence times, where cocoa leaves decomposed more slowly than forest leaves and shade tree litterfall decomposed considerably faster, indicating significant changes in rates of nutrient cycling. The average HANPP value for all cocoa farms was 2.1 ± 1.1 Mg C ha−1 year−1; however, depending on the density of shade trees, it ranged from −4.6 to 5.2 Mg C ha−1 year−1. Therefore, rather than being related to cocoa yield, HANPP was reduced by maintaining higher shade levels. Across our monitored farms, 18.9% of farm NPP was harvested (i.e., whole cocoa pods) and only 1.1% (i.e., cocoa beans) was removed from the system, suggesting that the scale of HANPP in smallholder cocoa agroforestry systems is relatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate and land‐use change are the major drivers of global biodiversity loss. Their effects are particularly acute for wide‐ranging consumers, but little is known about how these factors interact to affect the abundance of large carnivores and their herbivore prey. We analyzed population densities of a primary and secondary consumer (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus, and mountain lion, Puma concolor) across a climatic gradient in western North America by combining satellite‐based maps of plant productivity with estimates of animal abundance and foraging area derived from Global Positioning Systems telemetry data (GPS). Mule deer density exhibited a positive, linear relationship with plant productivity (r2 = 0.58), varying by a factor of 18 across the climate‐vegetation gradient (range: 38–697 individuals/100 km2). Mountain lion home range size decreased in response to increasing primary productivity and consequent changes in the abundance of their herbivore prey (range: 20–450 km2). This pattern resulted in a strong, positive association between plant productivity and mountain lion density (r2 = 0.67). Despite varying densities, the ratio of prey to predator remained constant across the climatic gradient (mean ± SE = 363 ± 29 mule deer/mountain lion), suggesting that the determinacy of the effect of primary productivity on consumer density was conserved across trophic levels. As droughts and longer term climate changes reduce the suitability of marginal habitats, consumer home ranges will expand in order for individuals to meet basic nutritional requirements. These changes portend decreases in the abundance of large‐bodied, wide‐ranging wildlife through climatically driven reductions in carrying capacity, as well as increased human–wildlife interactions stemming from anthropogenic land use and habitat fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Interannual variations of photosynthesis in tropical seasonally dry vegetation are one of the dominant drivers to interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Yet, the seasonal differences in the response of photosynthesis to climate variations in these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), we explored the response of photosynthesis of seasonally dry tropical vegetation to climatic variations in the dry and the wet seasons during the past three decades. We found significant (p < 0.01) differences between dry and wet seasons in the interannual response of photosynthesis to temperature (γint) and to precipitation (δint). γint is ~1% °C−1 more negative and δint is ~8% 100 mm−1 more positive in the dry season than in the wet season. Further analyses show that the seasonal difference in γint can be explained by background moisture and temperature conditions. Positive γint occurred in wet season where mean temperature is lower than 27°C and precipitation is at least 60 mm larger than potential evapotranspiration. Two widely used Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) estimates (empirical modeling by machine‐learning algorithm applied to flux tower measurements, and nine process‐based carbon cycle models) were examined for the GPP–climate relationship over wet and dry seasons. The GPP derived from empirical modeling can partly reproduce the divergence of γint, while most process models cannot. The overestimate by process models on negative impacts by warmer temperature during the wet season highlights the shortcomings of current carbon cycle models in representing interactive impacts of temperature and moisture on photosynthesis. Improving representations on soil water uptake, leaf temperature, nitrogen cycling, and soil moisture may help improve modeling skills in reproducing seasonal differences of photosynthesis–climate relationship and thus the projection for impacts of climate change on tropical carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change projections anticipate increased frequency and intensity of drought stress, but grassland responses to severe droughts and their potential to recover are poorly understood. In many grasslands, high land‐use intensity has enhanced productivity and promoted resource‐acquisitive species at the expense of resource‐conservative ones. Such changes in plant functional composition could affect the resistance to drought and the recovery after drought of grassland ecosystems with consequences for feed productivity resilience and environmental stewardship. In a 12‐site precipitation exclusion experiment in upland grassland ecosystems across Switzerland, we imposed severe edaphic drought in plots under rainout shelters and compared them with plots under ambient conditions. We used soil water potentials to scale drought stress across sites. Impacts of precipitation exclusion and drought legacy effects were examined along a gradient of land‐use intensity to determine how grasslands resisted to, and recovered after drought. In the year of precipitation exclusion, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in plots under rainout shelters was −15% to −56% lower than in control plots. Drought effects on ANPP increased with drought severity, specified as duration of topsoil water potential ψ < −100 kPa, irrespective of land‐use intensity. In the year after drought, ANPP had completely recovered, but total species diversity had declined by −10%. Perennial species showed elevated mortality, but species richness of annuals showed a small increase due to enhanced recruitment. In general, the more resource‐acquisitive grasses increased at the expense of the deeper‐rooted forbs after drought, suggesting that community reorganization was driven by competition rather than plant mortality. The negative effects of precipitation exclusion on forbs increased with land‐use intensity. Our study suggests a synergistic impact of land‐use intensification and climate change on grassland vegetation composition, and implies that biomass recovery after drought may occur at the expense of biodiversity maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m−2 year−1 in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m−2 year−1). Responses vary substantially from place‐to‐place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (−46% in sub‐Saharan western Africa) and Australia (−17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., −18% in sub‐Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaf quantity (i.e., canopy leaf area index, LAI), quality (i.e., per-area photosynthetic capacity), and longevity all influence the photosynthetic seasonality of tropical evergreen forests. However, these components of tropical leaf phenology are poorly represented in most terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Here, we explored alternative options for the representation of leaf phenology effects in TBMs that employ the Farquahar, von Caemmerer & Berry (FvCB) representation of CO2 assimilation. We developed a two-fraction leaf (sun and shade), two-layer canopy (upper and lower) photosynthesis model to evaluate different modeling approaches and assessed three components of phenological variations (i.e., leaf quantity, quality, and within-canopy variation in leaf longevity). Our model was driven by the prescribed seasonality of leaf quantity and quality derived from ground-based measurements within an Amazonian evergreen forest. Modeled photosynthetic seasonality was not sensitive to leaf quantity, but was highly sensitive to leaf quality and its vertical distribution within the canopy, with markedly more sensitivity to upper canopy leaf quality. This is because light absorption in tropical canopies is near maximal for the entire year, implying that seasonal changes in LAI have little impact on total canopy light absorption; and because leaf quality has a greater effect on photosynthesis of sunlit leaves than light limited, shade leaves and sunlit foliage are more abundant in the upper canopy. Our two-fraction leaf, two-layer canopy model, which accounted for all three phenological components, was able to simulate photosynthetic seasonality, explaining ~90% of the average seasonal variation in eddy covariance-derived CO2 assimilation. This work identifies a parsimonious approach for representing tropical evergreen forest photosynthetic seasonality in TBMs that utilize the FvCB model of CO2 assimilation and highlights the importance of incorporating more realistic phenological mechanisms in models that seek to improve the projection of future carbon dynamics in tropical evergreen forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ozone (O3) damage to leaves can reduce plant photosynthesis, which suggests that declines in ambient O3 concentrations ([O3]) in the United States may have helped increase gross primary production ( GPP) in recent decades. Here, we assess the effect of long-term changes in ambient [O3] using 20 years of observations at Harvard forest. Using artificial neural networks, we found that the effect of the inclusion of [O3] as a predictor was slight, and independent of O3 concentrations, which suggests limited high-frequency O3 inhibition of GPP at this site. Simulations with a terrestrial biosphere model, however, suggest an average long-term O3 inhibition of 10.4% for 1992-2011. A decline of [O3] over the measurement period resulted in moderate predicted GPP trends of 0.02-0.04 μmol C m−2 s−1 yr−1, which is negligible relative to the total observed GPP trend of 0.41 μmol C m−2 s−1 yr−1. A similar conclusion is achieved with the widely used AOT40 metric. Combined, our results suggest that ozone reductions at Harvard forest are unlikely to have had a large impact on the photosynthesis trend over the past 20 years. Such limited effects are mainly related to the slow responses of photosynthesis to changes in [O3]. Furthermore, we estimate that 40% of photosynthesis happens in the shade, where stomatal conductance and thus [O3] deposition is lower than for sunlit leaves. This portion of GPP remains unaffected by [O3], thus helping to buffer the changes of total photosynthesis due to varied [O3]. Our analyses suggest that current ozone reductions, although significant, cannot substantially alleviate the damages to forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our recent study in Global Change Biology (Li et al.,), we examined the relationship between solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) measured from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) and gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from eddy covariance flux towers across the globe, and we discovered that there is a nearly universal relationship between SIF and GPP across a wide variety of biomes. This finding reveals the tremendous potential of SIF for accurately mapping terrestrial photosynthesis globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural forests in South-East Asia have been extensively converted into other land-use systems in the past decades and still show high deforestation rates. Historically, lowland forests have been converted into rubber forests, but more recently, the dominant conversion is into oil palm plantations. While it is expected that the large-scale conversion has strong effects on the carbon cycle, detailed studies quantifying carbon pools and total net primary production (NPPtotal) in above- and belowground tree biomass in land-use systems replacing rainforest (incl. oil palm plantations) are rare so far. We measured above- and belowground carbon pools in tree biomass together with NPPtotal in natural old-growth forests, 'jungle rubber' agroforests under natural tree cover, and rubber and oil palm monocultures in Sumatra. In total, 32 stands (eight plot replicates per land-use system) were studied in two different regions. Total tree biomass in the natural forest (mean: 384 Mg ha−1) was more than two times higher than in jungle rubber stands (147 Mg ha−1) and >four times higher than in monoculture rubber and oil palm plantations (78 and 50 Mg ha−1). NPPtotal was higher in the natural forest (24 Mg ha−1 yr−1) than in the rubber systems (20 and 15 Mg ha−1 yr−1), but was highest in the oil palm system (33 Mg ha−1 yr−1) due to very high fruit production (15-20 Mg ha−1 yr−1). NPPtotal was dominated in all systems by aboveground production, but belowground productivity was significantly higher in the natural forest and jungle rubber than in plantations. We conclude that conversion of natural lowland forest into different agricultural systems leads to a strong reduction not only in the biomass carbon pool (up to 166 Mg C ha−1) but also in carbon sequestration as carbon residence time (i.e. biomass-C:NPP-C) was 3-10 times higher in the natural forest than in rubber and oil palm plantations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable amounts and varieties of biogenic volatile organic compounds ( BVOCs) are exchanged between vegetation and the surrounding air. These BVOCs play key ecological and atmospheric roles that must be adequately represented for accurately modeling the coupled biosphere-atmosphere-climate earth system. One key uncertainty in existing models is the response of BVOC fluxes to an important global change process: drought. We describe the diurnal and seasonal variation in isoprene, monoterpene, and methanol fluxes from a temperate forest ecosystem before, during, and after an extreme 2012 drought event in the Ozark region of the central USA. BVOC fluxes were dominated by isoprene, which attained high emission rates of up to 35.4 mg m−2 h−1 at midday. Methanol fluxes were characterized by net deposition in the morning, changing to a net emission flux through the rest of the daylight hours. Net flux of CO2 reached its seasonal maximum approximately a month earlier than isoprenoid fluxes, which highlights the differential response of photosynthesis and isoprenoid emissions to progressing drought conditions. Nevertheless, both processes were strongly suppressed under extreme drought, although isoprene fluxes remained relatively high compared to reported fluxes from other ecosystems. Methanol exchange was less affected by drought throughout the season, confirming the complex processes driving biogenic methanol fluxes. The fraction of daytime (7-17 h) assimilated carbon released back to the atmosphere combining the three BVOCs measured was 2% of gross primary productivity ( GPP) and 4.9% of net ecosystem exchange ( NEE) on average for our whole measurement campaign, while exceeding 5% of GPP and 10% of NEE just before the strongest drought phase. The meganv2.1 model correctly predicted diurnal variations in fluxes driven mainly by light and temperature, although further research is needed to address model BVOC fluxes during drought events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal regions store most of the global terrestrial carbon, which can be transferred as dissolved organic carbon ( DOC) to inland waters with implications for both aquatic ecology and carbon budgets. Headwater riparian zones ( RZ) are important sources of DOC, and often just a narrow 'dominant source layer' ( DSL) within the riparian profile is responsible for most of the DOC export. Two important questions arise: how long boreal RZ could sustain lateral DOC fluxes as the sole source of exported carbon and how its hydromorphological variability influences this role. We estimate theoretical turnover times by comparing carbon pools and lateral exports in the DSL of 13 riparian profiles distributed over a 69 km2 catchment in northern Sweden. The thickness of the DSL was 36 ± 18 (average ± SD) cm. Thus, only about one-third of the 1-m-deep riparian profile contributed 90% of the lateral DOC flux. The 13 RZ exported 8.7 ± 6.5 g C m−2 year−1, covering the whole range of boreal stream DOC exports. The variation could be explained by local hydromorphological characteristics including RZ width ( R2 = 0.90). The estimated theoretical turnover times were hundreds to a few thousands of years, that is there is a potential long-lasting supply of DOC. Estimates of net ecosystem production in the RZ suggest that lateral fluxes, including both organic and inorganic C, could be maintained without drawing down the riparian pools. This was supported by measurements of stream DO14C that indicated modern carbon as the predominant fraction exported, including streams disturbed by ditching. The transfer of DOC into boreal inland waters from new and old carbon sources has a major influence on surface water quality and global carbon balances. This study highlights the importance of local variations in RZ hydromorphology and DSL extent for future DOC fluxes under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived indices of photosynthetic activity are the primary data source used to study changes in global vegetation productivity over recent decades. Creating coherent, long-term records of vegetation activity from legacy satellite data sets requires addressing many factors that introduce uncertainties into vegetation index time series. We compared long-term changes in vegetation productivity at high northern latitudes (>50°N), estimated as trends in growing season NDVI derived from the most widely used global NDVI data sets. The comparison included the AVHRR-based GIMMS-NDVI version G (GIMMSg) series, and its recent successor version 3g (GIMMS3g), as well as the shorter NDVI records generated from the more modern sensors, SeaWiFS, SPOT-VGT, and MODIS. The data sets from the latter two sensors were provided in a form that reduces the effects of surface reflectance associated with solar and view angles. Our analysis revealed large geographic areas, totaling 40% of the study area, where all data sets indicated similar changes in vegetation productivity over their common temporal record, as well as areas where data sets showed conflicting patterns. The newer, GIMMS3g data set showed statistically significant (α = 0.05) increases in vegetation productivity (greening) in over 15% of the study area, not seen in its predecessor (GIMMSg), whereas the reverse was rare (<3%). The latter has implications for earlier reports on changes in vegetation activity based on GIMMSg, particularly in Eurasia where greening is especially pronounced in the GIMMS3g data. Our findings highlight both critical uncertainties and areas of confidence in the assessment of ecosystem-response to climate change using satellite-derived indices of photosynthetic activity. Broader efforts are required to evaluate NDVI time series against field measurements of vegetation growth, primary productivity, recruitment, mortality, and other biological processes in order to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change over large areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three young northern temperate forest communities in the north-central United States were exposed to factorial combinations of elevated carbon dioxide ( CO2) and tropospheric ozone (O3) for 11 years. Here, we report results from an extensive sampling of plant biomass and soil conducted at the conclusion of the experiment that enabled us to estimate ecosystem carbon (C) content and cumulative net primary productivity ( NPP). Elevated CO2 enhanced ecosystem C content by 11%, whereas elevated O3 decreased ecosystem C content by 9%. There was little variation in treatment effects on C content across communities and no meaningful interactions between CO2 and O3. Treatment effects on ecosystem C content resulted primarily from changes in the near-surface mineral soil and tree C, particularly differences in woody tissues. Excluding the mineral soil, cumulative NPP was a strong predictor of ecosystem C content ( r 2 = 0.96). Elevated CO2 enhanced cumulative NPP by 39%, a consequence of a 28% increase in canopy nitrogen (N) content (g N m−2) and a 28% increase in N productivity ( NPP/canopy N). In contrast, elevated O3 lowered NPP by 10% because of a 21% decrease in canopy N, but did not impact N productivity. Consequently, as the marginal impact of canopy N on NPP (∆ NPP/∆N) decreased through time with further canopy development, the O3 effect on NPP dissipated. Within the mineral soil, there was less C in the top 0.1 m of soil under elevated O3 and less soil C from 0.1 to 0.2 m in depth under elevated CO2. Overall, these results suggest that elevated CO2 may create a sustained increase in NPP, whereas the long-term effect of elevated O3 on NPP will be smaller than expected. However, changes in soil C are not well-understood and limit our ability to predict changes in ecosystem C content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production ( GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/ NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m−2 yr−1 across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes using a single modeling framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil CO2 efflux ( Fsoil) is the largest source of carbon from forests and reflects primary productivity as well as how carbon is allocated within forest ecosystems. Through early stages of stand development, both elevated [ CO2] and availability of soil nitrogen (N; sum of mineralization, deposition, and fixation) have been shown to increase gross primary productivity, but the long-term effects of these factors on Fsoil are less clear. Expanding on previous studies at the Duke Free-Air CO2 Enrichment ( FACE) site, we quantified the effects of elevated [ CO2] and N fertilization on Fsoil using daily measurements from automated chambers over 10 years. Consistent with previous results, compared to ambient unfertilized plots, annual Fsoil increased under elevated [ CO2] (ca. 17%) and decreased with N (ca. 21%). N fertilization under elevated [ CO2] reduced Fsoil to values similar to untreated plots. Over the study period, base respiration rates increased with leaf productivity, but declined after productivity saturated. Despite treatment-induced differences in aboveground biomass, soil temperature and water content were similar among treatments. Interannually, low soil water content decreased annual Fsoil from potential values - estimated based on temperature alone assuming nonlimiting soil water content - by ca. 0.7% per 1.0% reduction in relative extractable water. This effect was only slightly ameliorated by elevated [ CO2]. Variability in soil N availability among plots accounted for the spatial variability in Fsoil, showing a decrease of ca. 114 g C m−2 yr−1 per 1 g m−2 increase in soil N availability, with consistently higher Fsoil in elevated [ CO2] plots ca. 127 g C per 100 ppm [ CO2] over the +200 ppm enrichment. Altogether, reflecting increased belowground carbon partitioning in response to greater plant nutritional needs, the effects of elevated [ CO2] and N fertilization on Fsoil in this stand are sustained beyond the early stages of stand development and through stabilization of annual foliage production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macrophyte net primary productivity ( NPP) is a significant but understudied component of the carbon budget in large Amazonian floodplains. Annual NPP is determined by the interaction between stem elongation (vertical growth) and plant cover changes (horizontal expansion), each affected differently by flood duration and amplitude. Therefore, hydrological changes as predicted for the Amazon basin could result in significant changes in annual macrophyte NPP. This study investigates the responses of macrophyte horizontal expansion and vertical growth to flooding variability, and its possible effects on the contribution of macrophytes to the carbon budget of Amazonian floodplains. Monthly macrophyte cover was estimated using satellite imagery for the 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 hydrological years, and biomass was measured in situ between 2003 and 2004. Regression models between macrophyte variables and river-stage data were used to build a semiempirical model of macrophyte NPP as a function of water level. Historical river-stage records (1970-2011) were used to simulate variations in NPP, as a function of annual flooding. Vertical growth varied by a factor of ca. 2 over the simulated years, whereas minimum and maximum annual cover varied by ca. 3.5 and 1.5, respectively. Results suggest that these processes act in opposite directions to determine macrophyte NPP, with larger sensitivity to changes in vertical growth, and thus maximum flooding levels. Years with uncommonly large flooding amplitude resulted in the highest NPP values, as both horizontal expansion and vertical growth were enhanced under these conditions. Over the simulated period, annual NPP varied by ca. 1.5 (1.06-1.63 TgC yr−1). A small increasing trend in flooding amplitude, and by extension NPP, was observed for the studied period. Variability in growth rates caused by local biotic and abiotic factors, and the lack of knowledge on macrophyte physiological responses to extreme hydrological conditions remain the major sources of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diagnostic carbon cycle models produce estimates of net ecosystem production ( NEP, the balance of net primary production and heterotrophic respiration) by integrating information from (i) satellite-based observations of land surface vegetation characteristics; (ii) distributed meteorological data; and (iii) eddy covariance flux tower observations of net ecosystem exchange ( NEE) (used in model parameterization). However, a full bottom-up accounting of NEE (the vertical carbon flux) that is suitable for integration with atmosphere-based inversion modeling also includes emissions from decomposition/respiration of harvested forest and agricultural products, CO2 evasion from streams and rivers, and biomass burning. Here, we produce a daily time step NEE for North America for the year 2004 that includes NEP as well as the additional emissions. This NEE product was run in the forward mode through the CarbonTracker inversion setup to evaluate its consistency with CO2 concentration observations. The year 2004 was climatologically favorable for NEP over North America and the continental total was estimated at 1730 ± 370 TgC yr−1 (a carbon sink). Harvested product emissions (316 ± 80 TgC yr−1), river/stream evasion (158 ± 50 TgC yr−1), and fire emissions (142 ± 45 TgC yr−1) counteracted a large proportion (35%) of the NEP sink. Geographic areas with strong carbon sinks included Midwest US croplands, and forested regions of the Northeast, Southeast, and Pacific Northwest. The forward mode run with CarbonTracker produced good agreement between observed and simulated wintertime CO2 concentrations aggregated over eight measurement sites around North America, but overestimates of summertime concentrations that suggested an underestimation of summertime carbon uptake. As terrestrial NEP is the dominant offset to fossil fuel emission over North America, a good understanding of its spatial and temporal variation - as well as the fate of the carbon it sequesters ─ is needed for a comprehensive view of the carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops a new carbon exchange diagnostic model [i.e. Southampton CARbon Flux ( SCARF) model] for estimating daily gross primary productivity ( GPP). The model exploits the maximum quantum yields of two key photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4) to estimate the conversion of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation into GPP. Furthermore, this is the first model to use only the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by photosynthetic elements of the canopy (i.e. FAPARps) rather than total canopy, to predict GPP. The GPP predicted by the SCARF model was comparable to in situ GPP measurements ( R2 > 0.7) in most of the evaluated biomes. Overall, the SCARF model predicted high GPP in regions dominated by forests and croplands, and low GPP in shrublands and dry-grasslands across USA and Europe. The spatial distribution of GPP from the SCARF model over Europe and conterminous USA was comparable to those from the MOD17 GPP product except in regions dominated by croplands. The SCARF model GPP predictions were positively correlated ( R2 > 0.5) to climatic and biophysical input variables indicating its sensitivity to factors controlling vegetation productivity. The new model has three advantages, first, it prescribes only two quantum yield terms rather than species specific light use efficiency terms; second, it uses only the fraction of PAR absorbed by photosynthetic elements of the canopy ( FAPARps) hence capturing the actual PAR used in photosynthesis; and third, it does not need a detailed land cover map that is a major source of uncertainty in most remote sensing based GPP models. The Sentinel satellites planned for launch in 2014 by the European Space Agency have adequate spectral channels to derive FAPARps at relatively high spatial resolution (20 m). This provides a unique opportunity to produce global GPP operationally using the Southampton CARbon Flux ( SCARF) model at high spatial resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biogeochemical models have been developed to account for more and more processes, making their complex structures difficult to be understood and evaluated. Here, we introduce a framework to decompose a complex land model into traceable components based on mutually independent properties of modeled biogeochemical processes. The framework traces modeled ecosystem carbon storage capacity ( Xss) to (i) a product of net primary productivity ( NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τ E). The latter τ E can be further traced to (ii) baseline carbon residence times (τ′ E), which are usually preset in a model according to vegetation characteristics and soil types, (iii) environmental scalars ( ξ), including temperature and water scalars, and (iv) environmental forcings. We applied the framework to the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange ( CABLE) model to help understand differences in modeled carbon processes among biomes and as influenced by nitrogen processes. With the climate forcings of 1990, modeled evergreen broadleaf forest had the highest NPP among the nine biomes and moderate residence times, leading to a relatively high carbon storage capacity (31.5 kg cm−2). Deciduous needle leaf forest had the longest residence time (163.3 years) and low NPP, leading to moderate carbon storage (18.3 kg cm−2). The longest τ E in deciduous needle leaf forest was ascribed to its longest τ′ E (43.6 years) and small ξ (0.14 on litter/soil carbon decay rates). Incorporation of nitrogen processes into the CABLE model decreased Xss in all biomes via reduced NPP (e.g., −12.1% in shrub land) or decreased τ E or both. The decreases in τ E resulted from nitrogen-induced changes in τ′ E (e.g., −26.7% in C3 grassland) through carbon allocation among plant pools and transfers from plant to litter and soil pools. Our framework can be used to facilitate data model comparisons and model intercomparisons via tracking a few traceable components for all terrestrial carbon cycle models. Nevertheless, more research is needed to develop tools to decompose NPP and transient dynamics of the modeled carbon cycle into traceable components for structural analysis of land models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic organisms are adapted to the strong seasonality of environmental forcing. A small timing mismatch between biological processes and the environment could potentially have significant consequences for the entire food web. Climate warming causes shrinking ice coverage and earlier ice retreat in the Arctic, which is likely to change the timing of primary production. In this study, we test predictions on the interactions among sea ice phenology and production timing of ice algae and pelagic phytoplankton. We do so using the following (1) a synthesis of available satellite observation data; and (2) the application of a coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model. The data and model results suggest that, over a large portion of the Arctic marginal seas, the timing variability in ice retreat at a specific location has a strong impact on the timing variability in pelagic phytoplankton peaks, but weak or no impact on the timing of ice-algae peaks in those regions. The model predicts latitudinal and regional differences in the timing of ice algae biomass peak (varying from April to May) and the time lags between ice algae and pelagic phytoplankton peaks (varying from 45 to 90 days). The correlation between the time lag and ice retreat is significant in areas where ice retreat has no significant impact on ice-algae peak timing, suggesting that changes in pelagic phytoplankton peak timing control the variability in time lags. Phenological variability in primary production is likely to have consequences for higher trophic levels, particularly for the zooplankton grazers, whose main food source is composed of the dually pulsed algae production of the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much concern has been raised about how multifactor global change has affected food security and carbon sequestration capacity in China. By using a process-based ecosystem model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model ( DLEM), in conjunction with the newly developed driving information on multiple environmental factors (climate, atmospheric CO2, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition, and land cover/land use change), we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of net primary production ( NPP) and soil organic carbon storage ( SOC) across China's croplands during 1980-2005 and investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that both crop NPP and SOC increased from 1980 to 2005, and the highest annual NPP occurred in the Southeast ( SE) region (0.32 Pg C yr−1, 35.4% of the total NPP) whereas the largest annual SOC (2.29 Pg C yr−1, 35.4% of the total SOC) was found in the Northeast ( NE) region. Land management practices, particularly nitrogen fertilizer application, appear to be the most important factor in stimulating increase in NPP and SOC. However, tropospheric ozone pollution and climate change led to NPP reduction and SOC loss. Our results suggest that China's crop productivity and soil carbon storage could be enhanced through minimizing tropospheric ozone pollution and improving nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many terrestrial ecosystems, variation in aboveground net primary production ( ANPP) is positively correlated with variation in interannual precipitation. Global climate change will alter both the mean and the variance of annual precipitation, but the relative impact of these changes in precipitation on mean ANPP remains uncertain. At any given site, the slope of the precipitation- ANPP relationship determines the sensitivity of mean ANPP to changes in mean precipitation, whereas the curvature of the precipitation- ANPP relationship determines the sensitivity of ANPP to changes in precipitation variability. We used 58 existing long-term data sets to characterize precipitation- ANPP relationships in terrestrial ecosystems and to quantify the sensitivity of mean ANPP to the mean and variance of annual precipitation. We found that most study sites have a nonlinear, saturating relationship between precipitation and ANPP, but these nonlinearities were not strong. As a result of these weak nonlinearities, ANPP was nearly 40 times more sensitive to precipitation mean than variance. A 1% increase in mean precipitation caused a −0.2% to 1.8% change in mean ANPP, with a 0.64% increase on average. Sensitivities to precipitation mean peaked at sites with a mean annual precipitation near 500 mm. Changes in species composition and increased intra-annual precipitation variability could lead to larger ANPP responses to altered precipitation regimes than predicted by our analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series of satellite-derived surface chlorophyll- a concentration ( Chl) in 1997-2009 were used to examine for trends in the timing of the annual phytoplankton bloom maximum. Significant trends towards earlier phytoplankton blooms were detected in about 11% of the area of the Arctic Ocean with valid Chl data, e.g. in the Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, Baffin Sea, off the coasts of Greenland, in the Kara Sea and around Novaya Zemlya. These areas roughly coincide with areas where ice concentration has decreased in early summer (June), thus making the earlier blooms possible. In the selected areas, the annual phytoplankton bloom maximum has advanced by up to 50 days which may have consequences for the Arctic food chain and carbon cycling. Outside the Arctic, the annual Chl maximum has become earlier in boreal North Pacific but later in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conducted an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to evaluate sources of uncertainty in carbon flux estimates resulting from structural differences among ecosystem models. The experiment ran public-domain versions of , and over North America at 8 km resolution and for the period of 1982-2006. We developed the Hierarchical Framework for Diagnosing Ecosystem Models (HFDEM) to separate the simulated biogeochemistry into a cascade of three functional tiers and sequentially examine their characteristics in climate (temperature-precipitation) and other spaces. Analysis of the simulated annual gross primary production (GPP) in the climate domain indicates a general agreement among the models, all showing optimal GPP in regions where the relationship between annual average temperature ( T, °C) and annual total precipitation ( P, mm) is defined by P=50 T+500. However, differences in simulated GPP are identified in magnitudes and distribution patterns. For forests, the GPP gradient along P=50 T+500 ranges from ∼50 g C yr m °C () to ∼125 g C yr m °C () in cold/temperate regions; for nonforests, the diversity among GPP distributions is even larger. Positive linear relationships are found between annual GPP and annual mean leaf area index (LAI) in all models. For and , such relationships lead to a positive feedback from LAI growth to GPP enhancement. Different approaches to constrain this feedback lead to different sensitivity of the models to disturbances such as fire, which contribute significantly to the diversity in GPP stated above. The ratios between independently simulated NPP and GPP are close to 50% on average; however, their distribution patterns vary significantly between models, reflecting the difficulties in estimating autotrophic respiration across various climate regimes. Although these results are drawn from our experiments with the tested model versions, the developed methodology has potential for other model exercises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m yr). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Eurasia is the largest terrestrial reservoir of carbon, and its dynamics and interactions with climate are globally significant. We present five independent estimates of the contemporary carbon balance of central Siberia using three different methodologies: a landscape-ecosystem approach (LEA) that amalgamates comprehensive vegetation, soil, hydrological and morphological information into a Geographical Information System, linked to regression-based estimates of carbon flux; two Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs); and two atmospheric inversions. Apart from one of the DGVMs, all methods produce estimates of the net biome productivity (NBP) that are consistent both amongst themselves and with a range of other estimates. They indicate the region to be a carbon sink with a NBP of 27.5 ± 7.2 g C m yr, which is equivalent to 352 ± 92 Mt C yr if considered representative for boreal Asia. This is comparable with fossil fuel emissions for the Russian Federation, currently estimated as 427 MtC yr, and implies that boreal Asia does not play the major role in the northern hemisphere land sink, typically estimated to be of magnitude 1.5-2.9 Gt C yr. The LEA and DGVM approaches produce very different partitioning of NBP into its component fluxes. The DGVMs find net primary production (NPP) to be nearly balanced by heterotrophic respiration, disturbance being a relatively small term pushing the system closer to equilibrium. In the LEA, heterotrophic respiration is significantly less than NPP, and disturbance plays a much larger role in the overall carbon balance. The use in the LEA of observationally based estimates of heterotrophic respiration and fire disturbance, along with a more complete description of disturbance fluxes, suggests that the partitioning derived by the LEA is more likely, and that improved process descriptions and constraints by data are needed in the DGVMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including one by Girardin and colleagues on the variance between the net primary productivity (NPP) and its components, one by Robertson and colleagues exploring woody stem carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux, and one by Hillyer & Silman on the effects of seed predation on tree regeneration with the elevation gradient.

We investigated the effect of elevated [CO2] (700 μmol mol−1), elevated temperature (+2 °C above ambient) and decreased soil water availability on net photosynthesis ( Anet) and water relations of one-year old potted loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) seedlings grown in treatment chambers with high fertility at three sites along a north-south transect covering a large portion of the species native range. At each location (Blairsville, Athens and Tifton, GA) we constructed four treatment chambers and randomly assigned each chamber one of four treatments: ambient [CO2] and ambient temperature, elevated [CO2] and ambient temperature, ambient [CO2] and elevated temperature, or elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature. Within each chamber half of the seedlings were well watered and half received much less water (1/4 that of the well watered). Measurements of net photosynthesis ( Anet), stomatal conductance ( gs), leaf water potential and leaf fluorescence were made in June and September, 2008. We observed a significant increase in Anet in response to elevated [CO2] regardless of site or temperature treatment in June and September. An increase in air temperature of over 2 °C had no significant effect on Anet at any of the sites in June or September despite over a 6 °C difference in mean annual temperature between the sites. Decreased water availability significantly reduced Anet in all treatments at each site in June. The effects of elevated [CO2] and temperature on gs followed a similar trend. The temperature, [CO2] and water treatments did not significantly affect leaf water potential or chlorophyll fluorescence. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in [CO2] will significantly increase Anet, while predicted increases in air temperature will have little effect on Anet across the native range of loblolly pine. Potential decreases in precipitation will likely cause a significant reduction in Anet, though this may be mitigated by increased [CO2]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon (BC) is an important pool of the global C cycle, because it cycles much more slowly than others and may even be managed for C sequestration. Using stable isotope techniques, we investigated the fate of BC applied to a savanna Oxisol in Colombia at rates of 0, 11.6, 23.2 and 116.1 t BC ha−1, as well as its effect on non-BC soil organic C. During the rainy seasons of 2005 and 2006, soil respiration was measured using soda lime traps, particulate and dissolved organic C (POC and DOC) moving by saturated flow was sampled continuously at 0.15 and 0.3 m, and soil was sampled to 2.0 m. Black C was found below the application depth of 0–0.1 m in the 0.15–0.3 m depth interval, with migration rates of 52.4±14.5, 51.8±18.5 and 378.7±196.9 kg C ha−1 yr−1 (±SE) where 11.6, 23.2 and 116.1 t BC ha−1, respectively, had been applied. Over 2 years after application, 2.2% of BC applied at 23.2 t BC ha−1 was lost by respiration, and an even smaller fraction of 1% was mobilized by percolating water. Carbon from BC moved to a greater extent as DOC than POC. The largest flux of BC from the field (20–53% of applied BC) was not accounted for by our measurements and is assumed to have occurred by surface runoff during intense rain events. Black C caused a 189% increase in aboveground biomass production measured 5 months after application (2.4–4.5 t additional dry biomass ha−1 where BC was applied), and this resulted in greater amounts of non-BC being respired, leached and found in soil for the duration of the experiment. These increases can be quantitatively explained by estimates of greater belowground net primary productivity with BC addition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes 9 years of eddy-covariance (EC) data carried out in a Pacific Northwest Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menzesii) forest (58-year old in 2007) on the east coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, and characterizes the seasonal and interannual variability in net ecosystem productivity (NEP), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration ( Re) and primary climatic controls on these fluxes. The annual values (± SD) of NEP, GPP and Re were 357 ± 51, 2124 ± 125, and 1767 ± 146 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively, with ranges of 267–410, 1592–2338, and 1642–2071 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively. Spring to early summer (March–June) accounted for more than 80% of annual NEP while late spring to early autumn (May–August) was mainly responsible for its interannual variability (∼80%). The major drivers of interannual variability in annual carbon (C) fluxes were annual and spring mean air temperatures ( Ta) and water deficiency during late summer and autumn (July–October) when this Douglas-fir forest growth was often water-limited. Photosynthetically active radiation ( Q), and the combination of Q and soil water content ( θ) explained 85% and 91% of the variance of monthly GPP, respectively; and 91% and 96% of the variance of monthly Re was explained by Ta and the combination of Ta and θ, respectively. Annual net C sequestration was high during optimally warm and normal precipitation years, but low in unusually warm or severely dry years. Excluding 1998 and 1999, the 2 years strongly affected by an El Niño/La Niña cycle, annual NEP significantly decreased with increasing annual mean Ta. Annual NEP will likely decrease whereas both annual GPP and Re will likely increase if the future climate at the site follows a trend similar to that of the past 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afforestations can be considerable carbon (C) sources due to C losses from the soil after site preparation for tree planting and decreased primary production. In this study, the transition from grassland to afforestation was investigated using two eddy flux towers, which were operated in parallel for 3 years, one on a young afforestation and one on an adjacent grassland. Differences between the fluxes at the two sites were attributable to the management of the sites, without confounding influences of meteorological variability. Site preparation with deep ploughing of the planting rows destroyed 30% of the grassland vegetation at the afforestation site and reduced gross primary productivity by 41% in the first year. At the afforestation site 38 g m−2 less C was sequestered compared with the nonafforested grassland during the first year. In the following years, the C sink at the afforestation site was higher than at the grassland indicating that soil C loss due to site preparation and land use change on the afforestation occurred only during the first year. Metrological conditions, especially summer drought, caused a high interannual variability of the C balance: both sites were small C sources in 2005 (67 g C m−2 a−1 at the grassland and 19 g C g−1 a−1 at the afforestation site) and small C sinks in 2004 and 2006 (−72.5 and −16 g C m−2 a−1 at the grassland and −34 and −61 g C g−1 a−1 at the afforestation). Sheep grazing and mowing affected the short-term dynamics of the C balance and sheep grazing accelerated the C turnover on the grassland site. The investigated afforestation site did not provide any short-term way of sequestering additional C even though soil C losses during the first 3 years were relatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Putative future increase in atmospheric CO2 is expected to adversely affect herbivore growth due to decrease in contents of key nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus (P) relative to carbon in primary producers including plant and algal species. However, as many herbivores are polyphagous and as the response of primary producers to elevated CO2 is highly species-specific, effects of elevated CO2 on herbivore growth may differ between feeding conditions with monospecific and multiproducer diets. To examine this possibility, we performed CO2 manipulation experiments under a P-limited condition with a planktonic herbivore, Daphnia, and three algal species, Scenedesmus obliquus (green algae), Cyclotella sp. (diatoms) and Synechococcus sp. (cyanobacteria). Semibatch cultures with single algal species (monocultures) and multiple algal species (mixed cultures) were grown at ambient (360 ppm) and high CO2 levels (2000 ppm) that were within the natural range in lakes. Both in the mono- and mixed cultures, algal steady state abundance increased but algal P : C and N : C ratios decreased when they were grown at high CO2. As expected, Daphnia fed monospecific algae cultured at high CO2 had decreased growth rates despite increased algal abundance. However, when fed mixed algae cultured at high CO2, especially consisting of diatoms and cyanobacteria or the three algal species, Daphnia maintained high growth rates despite lowered P and N contents relative to C in the algal diets. These results imply that algal diets composed of multiple species can mitigate the adverse effects of elevated CO2 on herbivore performance, although the magnitude of this mitigation depends on the composition of algal species involved in the diets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an approach to estimate gross primary production (GPP) using a remotely sensed biophysical vegetation product (fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, FAPAR) from the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) in conjunction with GPP estimates from eddy covariance measurement towers in Europe. By analysing the relationship between the cumulative growing season FAPAR and annual GPP by vegetation type, we find that the former can be used to accurately predict the latter. The root mean square error of prediction is of the order of 250 gC m−2 yr−1. The cumulative growing season FAPAR integrates over a number of effects relevant for GPP such as the length of the growing season, the vegetation's response to environmental conditions and the amount of light harvested that is available for photosynthesis. We corroborate the proposed GPP estimate (noted FAPAR-based productivity assessment+land cover, FPA+LC) on the continental scale with results from the MOD17+radiation-use efficiency model, an artificial neural network up-scaling approach (ANN) and the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land biosphere model (LPJmL). The closest agreement of the mean spatial GPP pattern among the four models is between FPA+LC and ANN ( R2= 0.74). At least some of the discrepancy between FPA-LC and the other models result from biases of meteorological forcing fields for MOD17+, ANN and LPJmL. Our analysis further implies that meteorological information is to a large degree redundant for GPP estimation when using the JRC-FAPAR. A major advantage of the FPA+LC approach presented in this paper lies in its simplicity and that it requires no additional meteorological input driver data that commonly introduce substantial uncertainty. We find that results from different data-oriented models may be robust enough to evaluate process-oriented models regarding the mean spatial pattern of GPP, while there is too little consensus among the diagnostic models for such purpose regarding inter-annual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming ( T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO2] ( C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration ( Rh), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff. We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the three-way interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two-way interactive effects on NPP, Rh, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor's effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor's effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two-way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, Rh, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models predict significant changes to the rainfall regimes of the grassland biome, where C cycling is particularly sensitive to the amount and timing of precipitation. We explored the effects of both natural interannual rainfall variability and experimental rainfall additions on net C storage and loss in annual grasslands. Soil respiration and net primary productivity (NPP) were measured in treatment and control plots over four growing seasons (water years, or WYs) that varied in wet-season length and the quantity of rainfall. In treatment plots, we increased total rainfall by 50% above ambient levels and simulated one early- and one late-season storm. The early- and late-season rain events significantly increased soil respiration for 2–4 weeks after wetting, while augmentation of wet-season rainfall had no significant effect. Interannual variability in precipitation had large and significant effects on C cycling. We observed a significant positive relationship between annual rainfall and aboveground NPP across the study ( P=0.01, r2=0.69). Changes in the seasonal timing of rainfall significantly affected soil respiration. Abundant rainfall late in the wet season in WY 2004, a year with average total rainfall, led to greater net ecosystem C losses due to a ∼50% increase in soil respiration relative to other years. Our results suggest that C cycling in annual grasslands will be less sensitive to changes in rainfall quantity and more affected by altered seasonal timing of rainfall, with a longer or later wet season resulting in significant C losses from annual grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed 17 months (August 2005 to December 2006) of continuous measurements of soil CO2 efflux or soil respiration ( RS) in an 18-year-old west-coast temperate Douglas-fir stand that experienced somewhat greater than normal summertime water deficit. For soil water content at the 4 cm depth ( θ) > 0.11 m3 m−3 (corresponding to a soil water matric potential of −2 MPa), RS was positively correlated to soil temperature at the 2 cm depth ( TS). Below this value of θ, however, RS was largely decoupled from TS, and evapotranspiration, ecosystem respiration and gross primary productivity (GPP) began to decrease, dropping to about half of their maximum values when θ reached 0.07 m3 m−3. Soil water deficit substantially reduced RS sensitivity to temperature resulting in a Q10 significantly < 2. The absolute temperature sensitivity of RS (i.e. d RS/d TS) increased with θ up to 0.15 m3 m−3, above which it slowly declined. The value of d RS/d TS was nearly 0 for θ < 0.08 m3 m−3, thereby confirming that RS was largely unaffected by temperature under soil water stress conditions. Despite the possible effects of seasonality of photosynthesis, root activity and litterfall on RS, the observed decrease in its temperature sensitivity at low θ was consistent with the reduction in substrate availability due to a decrease in (a) microbial mobility, and diffusion of substrates and extracellular enzymes, and (b) the fraction of substrate that can react at high TS, which is associated with low θ. We found that an exponential (van't Hoff type) model with Q10 and R10 dependent on only θ explained 92% of the variance in half-hourly values of RS, including the period with soil water stress conditions. We hypothesize that relating Q10 and R10 to θ not only accounted for the effects of TS on RS and its temperature sensitivity but also accounted for the seasonality of biotic (photosynthesis, root activity, and litterfall) and abiotic (soil moisture and temperature) controls and their interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon balance of a winter wheat crop in Lonzée, Belgium, was assessed from measurements carried out at different spatial and temporal scales between November 2004 and August 2005. From eddy covariance measurements, the net ecosystem exchange was found to be −0.63 kg C m−2 and resulted from the difference between gross primary productivity (GPP) (−1.58 kg C m−2) and total ecosystem respiration (TER) (0.95 kg C m−2). The impact of the u* threshold value on these fluxes was assessed and found to be very small. GPP assessment was partially validated by comparison with an estimation scaled up from leaf scale assimilation measurements. Soil respiration (SR), extrapolated from chamber measurements, was 0.52 kg C m−2. Net primary productivity, assessed from crop sampling, was −0.83 kg C m−2. By combining these fluxes, the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of respiration were deduced. Autotrophic respiration dominated both TER and SR. The evolution of these fluxes was analysed in relation to wheat development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scaling of respiration from the leaf to the canopy level currently depends on identification of physiological parameters that are tightly linked to respiration and that can readily be determined. Several recent studies have helped provide guides to predicting whole canopy respiration on the basis of foliar nitrogen (N). This approach is potentially powerful owing to the well-described patterns of allocation of N that follow interception of radiation. In the present study, we investigated the sensitivity of the N–respiration correlation to environmental and developmental factors, in order to evaluate its usage for attempts to scale respiration to the organism and ecosystem level. We studied fully expanded, 1 and 2-year-old, and current-year needles from canopies of Pinus radiata that had been treated (unthinned, thinned and thinned+fertilized treatments) in ways likely to induce a wide range of growth and respiratory responses. We examined respiration in detail during the growth period in spring and again at the end of summer, using calorespirometric methods (combined measurements of CO2 and heat rates) to determine the respiration rates , instantaneous enthalpic growth rates ( RSGΔ HB, a measure of the conservation of electrons in anabolic products) and the enthalpy conversion efficiency ( ηH) of needles differing in age. A general linear model revealed that was positively correlated with needle N, but this correlation was strongly dependent on the season and the needle age – indicating an important physiological difference between expanding young needles and fully expanded old needles. Furthermore, the strength of the correlation between needle N and respiration was comparatively weak for the current year, expanding foliage, indicating that factors other than foliage N significantly influenced the respiration of young needles. The analysis of instantaneous growth rates revealed two general processes. Older, nonexpanding foliage showed considerable rates of enthalpic growth (increases in enthalpy) that was mainly caused by the increment of lignin during secondary growth. Secondly, canopy development appeared dynamic and to be optimized according to environmental drivers and constraints – such as light and water availability. In late spring, needle extension slowed in the upper, but not the lower canopy, because the upper canopy appeared to be affected first by the onset of drought stress in late spring. Growth rates were reduced in the upper canopy despite greater rates of respiration, indicating higher demand of ATP for the maintenance of protein and for export of sugars. Consequently, the enthalpy conversion efficiency and enthalpic N productivity (enthalpic growth per unit N) were comparatively poor indicating advanced development of needles in the upper canopy. We suggest that the growth and maintenance paradigm of respiration is, at best, only moderately useful when applied to whole trees, and is not valid at the cellular level or that of the plant organ. A different concept, namely that of respiratory efficiency, seems a more suitable way to represent respiration in carbon (C) balance models and should help provide a better mechanistic understanding of how respiration affects the C conversion efficiency of plants, and ultimately the net primary productivity of ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluated the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gross primary production (GPP) product (MOD17) by using estimated GPP from eddy-covariance flux measurements over an irrigated winter wheat and maize double-cropping field on the North China Plain in 2003–2004, and an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau in 2002–2003. The mean annual GPP from MOD17 accounted for 1/2–2/3 of the surface estimated mean annual GPP for the alpine meadow, but only about 1/5–1/3 for the cropland. This underestimation was partly attributed to low estimates of leaf area index by a MODIS product (MOD15) because it is used to calculate absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in the MOD17 algorithm. The main reason is that the parameter maximum light use efficiency ( εmax) in the MOD17 algorithm was underestimated for the two biomes, especially for the cropland. Contrasted to the default, εmax was optimized using surface measurements. The optimized εmax for winter wheat, maize and meadow was 1.18, 1.81 and 0.73 g C/MJ, respectively. By using the surface measurements and optimized εmax , the MOD17 algorithm significantly improved the accuracy of GPP estimates. The optimum MOD17 algorithm explained about 82%, 68%, and 79% of GPP variance for winter wheat, maize, and meadow, respectively. These results suggest that it is necessary to adjust the MOD17 parameters for the estimation of cropland and meadow GPP, particularly over cropland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]