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Disentangling the effects of cyclical variability in environmental forcing and long-term climate change on natural communities is a major challenge for ecologists, managers, and policy makers across ecosystems. Here we examined whether the vertical distribution of rocky intertidal taxa has shifted with sea-level variability occurring at multiple temporal scales and/or long-term anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR). Because of the distinct zonation characteristic of intertidal communities, any shift in tidal dynamics or average sea level is expected to have large impacts on community structure and function. We found that across the Northeast Pacific Coast (NPC), sea level exhibits cyclical seasonal variability, tidal amplitude exhibits ecologically significant variability coherent with the 18.6-year periodicity of lunar declination, and long-term sea-level rise is occurring. Intertidal taxa largely do not exhibit significant vertical distribution shifts coherent with short-term (monthly to annual) sea-level variability but do exhibit taxa-specific vertical distribution shifts coherent with cyclical changes in lunar declination and long-term SLR at decadal timescales. Finally, our results show that responses to cyclical celestial mechanics and SLR vary among taxa, primarily according to their vertical distribution. Long-term SLR is occurring on ecologically relevant scales, but the confounding effects of cyclical celestial mechanics make interpreting shifts in zonation or community structure challenging. Such cyclical dynamics alternatingly amplify and dampen long-term SLR impacts and may modify the impacts of other global change related stressors, such as extreme heat waves and swell events, on intertidal organisms living at the edge of their physiological tolerances. As a result, intertidal communities will likely experience cyclical periods of environmental stress and concomitant nonlinear shifts in structure and function as long-term climate change continues. Our results demonstrate that consistent, large-scale monitoring of marine ecosystems is critical for understanding natural variability in communities and documenting long-term change., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have gained attention as a conservation tool for enhancing ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, empirical evidence explicitly linking MPAs to enhanced ecological resilience is limited and mixed. To better understand whether MPAs can buffer climate impacts, we tested the resistance and recovery of marine communities to the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific heatwave in the largest scientifically designed MPA network in the world off the coast of California, United States. The network consists of 124 MPAs (48 no-take state marine reserves, and 76 partial-take or special regulation conservation areas) implemented at different times, with full implementation completed in 2012. We compared fish, benthic invertebrate, and macroalgal community structure inside and outside of 13 no-take MPAs across rocky intertidal, kelp forest, shallow reef, and deep reef nearshore habitats in California's Central Coast region from 2007 to 2020. We also explored whether MPA features, including age, size, depth, proportion rock, historic fishing pressure, habitat diversity and richness, connectivity, and fish biomass response ratios (proxy for ecological performance), conferred climate resilience for kelp forest and rocky intertidal habitats spanning 28 MPAs across the full network. Ecological communities dramatically shifted due to the marine heatwave across all four nearshore habitats, and MPAs did not facilitate habitat-wide resistance or recovery. Only in protected rocky intertidal habitats did community structure significantly resist marine heatwave impacts. Community shifts were associated with a pronounced decline in the relative proportion of cold water species and an increase in warm water species. MPA features did not explain resistance or recovery to the marine heatwave. Collectively, our findings suggest that MPAs have limited ability to mitigate the impacts of marine heatwaves on community structure. Given that mechanisms of resilience to climate perturbations are complex, there is a clear need to expand assessments of ecosystem-wide consequences resulting from acute climate-driven perturbations, and the potential role of regulatory protection in mitigating community structure changes., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)