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Aim: Each year, wild and managed fires burn roughly 4 million km2 [~400 million hectares (Mha)] of savanna, forest, grassland and agricultural ecosystems. Land use and climate change have altered fire regimes throughout the world, with a trend toward higher‐severity fires found from Australia, the Americas, Europe and Asia, to the Arctic. In 2020, there were notable catastrophic fires in Australia (in the 2019/20 Austral fire season), the Western United States, South America and Siberia. These fires defined much of the global fire year and were compounded by the socio‐economic disruption of the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Location: Global. Time period: 2020. Major taxa studied: Flora and fauna. Methods: The Global Ecology and Biogeography special issue, 'Increasing threat of wildfires: the year 2020 in perspective', includes 18 papers that catalogue these fire events, their drivers and their impacts on flora and fauna. Results: Collectively, these papers highlight the importance of fire response traits, exposure and sensitivity to interacting threats in determining fire impacts. Main conclusions: The scale of the 2020 megafires has helped identify new research areas required to more comprehensively assess fire impacts on biodiversity and biogeochemistry and to inform ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Range shifts are expected to occur when populations at one range margin perform better than those at the other margin, yet no global trend in population performances at range margins has been demonstrated empirically across a wide range of taxa and biomes. Here we test the prediction that, if impacts of ongoing climate change on performance in marginal populations are widespread, then populations from the high‐latitude margin (HLM) should perform as well as or better than central populations, whereas low‐latitude margin (LLM) populations should perform worse. Location: Global. Time period: 1995–2019. Major taxa studied: Plants and animals. Methods: To test our prediction, we used a meta‐analysis to quantify empirical support for asymmetry in the performance of high‐ and low‐latitude margin populations compared to central populations. Performance estimates (survival, reproduction, or lifetime fitness) for populations occurring in their natural environment were derived from 51 papers involving 113 margin‐centre comparisons from 54 species and 705 populations from the Americas, Europe, Africa and Australia. We then related these performance differences to climatic differences among populations. We also tested whether patterns are consistent across taxonomic kingdoms (plants vs animals) and across realms (marine vs terrestrial). Results: Populations at margins performed significantly worse than central populations, and this trend was primarily driven by the low‐latitude margin. Although the difference was of small magnitude, it was largely consistent across biological kingdoms and realms. Differences in performance were weakly (p =.08) related to the difference in average temperatures between central and marginal populations. Main conclusions: The observed asymmetry in performance in marginal populations is consistent with predictions about the effects of global climate change, though further research is needed to confirm the effect of climate. It indicates that changes in demographic rates in marginal populations can serve as early‐warning signals of impending range shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding changes in the behaviour of threatened species responding to rapidly increasing human disturbances is critical for biodiversity conservation. Here, we synthesize a meta‐analysis of the cumulative effect of human disturbances on the behaviour of global threatened terrestrial mammals. Location: Global terrestrial ecosystem. Time Period: Data collected from 1993 to 2021. Major Taxa Studied: Terrestrial mammals. Results: There were significant differences in behavioural changes among categories of human disturbances (i.e. biological invasion, climate change, grazing, habitat degradation, protection management, road traffic and tourism). The effect size of road traffic on behavioural change was the largest and particularly led habitat selection to be more specialized. The effect size for habitat degradation on foraging behaviour was the largest, and the effect mainly led to a shorter time spent in foraging and a change in food selection. Changes to behaviour increased with human disturbance intensity and varied among species according to their functional traits including body mass, food habits, migration and group type. Climate change, grazing, road traffic and tourism had a greater effect on larger species. The effect size for habitat degradation on omnivorous species was the largest, while carnivorous and solitary species were more sensitive to tourism, and migratory species were especially vulnerable to climate changes. Main Conclusions: The diverse human disturbances interact with disturbance intensity, and some species' functional traits significantly affected the behavioural change in threatened terrestrial mammals. Such behavioural changes away from predisturbance patterns may have consequences for their fitness and community interactions. The management and conservation of threatened species should incorporate knowledge of their behavioural responses to human disturbance and take into account the potential ecological consequences for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Significant changes in species elevational ranges in mountains have been repeatedly documented, yet the direction, magnitude and drivers of these shifts remain controversial. Presently, there is still lacking evidence about the general nature of species elevational range shifts in eastern Eurasia in response to anthropogenic climate change. By using historical specimen records and recent field observations for 735 seed plant species across 29 China's mountains, we assessed changes in species' elevational centroids and their drivers. Location: China. Time Period: 1950–2018. Major Taxa Studied: Seed plant species. Methods: The elevation records of all sampled occurrences in each mountain during the two time periods were estimated, and the null models were developed to test the sampling bias. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were used to evaluate the relative importance of climate factors in constraining each species distribution. Generalized linear models (GLMs) to test the relationships between the centroid elevational range shifts of species and different divers. Results: We found that 54% of the species shifting upward and 46% downhill. However, species' elevational shifts significantly differed among species and mountains. Herbaceous and lowland species moved upward faster than woody and high‐elevation species. Species in temperate mountains and in mountains with taller elevational gradients moved upward, while species in subtropical mountains and in mountains with shorter elevational gradients moved downward. Precipitation changes experienced by species, species' climatic adaptations, several species' functional traits and mountain size all contributed to explain the magnitude of species' centroid elevational range shifts. Main Conclusions: Our results highlight complex biodiversity redistribution of seed plants across Chinese mountains, not necessarily conforming to the trend of species upward shifts in elevation. Changes in precipitation regimes may blur the simplistic assumption of isotherm tracking. This study fills an important geographic shortfall for our understanding of biodiversity redistribution under anthropogenic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Climate change plays an important role in the generation and maintenance of biodiversity by driving processes such as diversification and range shifts. As a result, biodiversity patterns are often found to carry the imprints of palaeoclimatic changes. However, we still know little about the spatial and temporal variation in climate over the scale of millennia affecting eco‐evolutionary dynamics, mostly because of the scarcity of user‐friendly and freely available spatio‐temporal palaeoclimate series at such temporal scales. Here, we address this gap by presenting PALEO‐PGEM‐Series, a global spatio‐temporal dataset of the last 5 Myr, with 1 kyr resolution, spatially downscaled from emulations performed with the intermediate‐complexity atmosphere–ocean general circulation model PALEO‐PGEM. PALEO‐PGEM‐Series holds the potential to advance our understanding of the mechanisms behind the strong relationship between biodiversity and climate, a pressing need given projected biodiversity responses to anthropogenic climatic change. Main Types of Variables Contained: Spatio‐temporal series of monthly temperature and precipitation and 17 derived bioclimatic variables over the Pliocene–Pleistocene, along with standard error estimates from multiple runs of the emulator. Spatial Location and Grain: Global landmasses, at 1° × 1°. Time Period and Grain: Last 5 Myr at 1000 year resolution. Major Taxa and Level of Measurement: Not applicable. Software Format: Tab‐delimited text files and accompanying R code to derive bioclimatic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Tolerance of species to extreme temperatures largely determines their distribution and vulnerability to climate change. We examined thermal tolerance in tropical and temperate alpine plants, testing the hypotheses that: (a) temperate plants are resistant to more extreme temperatures and have an overall wider thermal tolerance breadth (TTB); (b) TTB in temperate plants is wider than TTB in tropical plants during the entire growing season; (c) resistance to frost and heat varies during the season in temperate plants but not in tropical plants; (d) TTB of a species predicts its latitudinal range. Location: Tropical (Ecuador, Bolivia) and temperate (USA, Austria) mountains. Time period: Four periods of the growing season (2014, 2016–2019). Major taxa: Ninety‐six vascular plant species. Methods: We employed the electrolyte leakage method to estimate the temperature resistance, that is, the temperature at which 50% tissue injury (Lt50) occurs in leaves. We used phylogenetic linear mixed‐effect models in a Bayesian framework to test for differences between the plant groups. Results: Temperate and tropical plants do not differ in their temperature resistance. The four hypotheses are rejected since: (a) temperate plants do not have significantly wider overall TTB compared to tropical plants, (b) TTB of temperate plants is wider than TTB of tropical plants only at the end of the temperate summer, (c) seasonal acclimation is observed in both plant groups, (d) the latitudinal range of the plants is not related to TTB. Main conclusions: The lack of TTB differences between temperate and tropical alpine plants is consistent with trends observed in ectothermic animals, which suggests a general latitudinal pattern in high‐elevation poikilotherm organisms. Limited acclimation capacity to cope with long freezing exposures restricts the occurrence of tropical alpine species to thermally aseasonal environments making them particularly vulnerable to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: In the face of ongoing climate warming, we wanted to quantify impacts on vegetation at one of the major climatic and biogeographical boundaries of Europe, the limit between the Mediterranean and Eurosiberian biogeographical regions. We analyse temperature and moisture requirements of plants along altitudinal gradients at regional scale in the period 1980–2020 and we explore if changes coincide with observed changes in the same regions in terms of measured climatic data. Location: Southern France. Time period: 1980–2020. Taxa: Vascular plants. Methods: We calculated shifts in plants' temperature and moisture requirements for a large floristic database from south‐eastern France (SIMETHIS) during the period 1980–2020 along altitudinal gradients by using ecological indicator values (EIV). Additionally, we analysed standardized weather station data from the same area and period, to investigate whether floristic changes are synchronized with climate changes. Results: Vegetation data suggest a linear increase in temperature requirements of plant communities from 1980 to 2020 with a greater change at low altitudes. Upward shifts in temperature requirements coincided with observed climate change although warming did not show a general trend towards greater increases at low altitudes. Data on vegetation and climate suggest an upward shift of respectively 150 and 300 m for the boundary between Mediterranean and temperate belts. Moisture requirements of vegetation indicate an increase of the frequency of dry adapted species at low altitudes but an increase towards higher moisture requirements at high altitudes. Comparing vegetation responses with climate data suggests that responses are faster at low altitudes. Main conclusions: Our analyses show that strong general changes in vegetation are underway and highlight faster responses of vegetation to warming in low altitudes compared to high altitudes and demonstrate the need for reliable data on vegetation and climate changes, especially on water balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Paris Climate Agreement is pursuing efforts to limit global warming to less than 2 °C in this century, but increasing evidence shows that temperatures are likely to rise up to 4.8 °C by 2100. This points to an urgent need to investigate how the temperature impact on microbial regulation will endanger soil organic matter stability under warming approaching or exceeding 2 °C. Location: Southern Germany and the globe. Time Period: 2010–2018. Major Taxa Studied: Soil organic matter stability and microbial adaptations. Methods: We analyzed soil properties and enzyme activities within (a) a long‐term field experiment with soil warming to below and above 2 °C (+1.6 vs. +3.2 °C), and (b) a literature review of 213 comparable studies globally (+0–2 vs. +2–4 °C). Results: The soil organic C (SOC) stock remained unchanged after 8 years under both warming magnitudes, whereas the labile C pool increased by 10% under >2 °C. Unlike the SOC pool, total N (TN) content increased by 20% under >2 °C as compared to ambient. A potential explanation for the increased TN content is linked to unbalanced processes of necromass formation and enzymatic decomposition. Warming induced faster microbial growth and turnover, but reduced catalytic efficiency and the enzyme‐mediated decomposition of oligosaccharides and polypeptides. This consequently caused N accumulation in microbial necromass. Although microbial regulation can maintain SOC at stable levels, warming exceeding 2 °C will change the projected effects of temperature on soil TN pools in the future. Early action to accomplish the 2 °C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial increase of SOC availability, N accumulation and related climate impacts on C and N cycling. Main Conclusions: It is crucial to include microbial metabolic responses (i.e., faster microbial growth and turnover) to warming in global C and N cycle models to improve the prediction of climate warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We assess the role of contemporary oceanography and species traits in shaping observed patterns of biogeography over broad spatial scales. Location: Our study domain covers the east and west coasts of North America, from 30° to 73° N on the east coast and 33° to 73° N on the west coast. Time period: Hydrodynamic models use climatological fields from 1990 to 2015 on the east coast, and 1993 to 2018 on the west coast. Major taxa studied: Model simulations represent larval dispersal for generalized benthic invertebrate species distributed in the subtidal zone from 10 to 100 m depth, with planktonic larval durations ranging from 21–60 days. Methods: We conducted a literature review to identify major biogeographic barriers along the east and west coasts of North America, and then assessed the permeability of these barriers to larval dispersal using Lagrangian particle tracking. We ran a series of simulations in which we varied the suitable habitat distribution, planktonic larval duration, and spawning seasonality of simulated larvae (i.e., particles) to assess the effects of species traits on biogeography. Results: Our results showed a strong alignment of observed biogeographic barriers with larval dispersal patterns, with high variation in barrier permeability depending on the traits of the species considered. The location of suitable habitat and the season during which particle release occurred were the biological traits that drove much of the variation in barrier permeability among simulations on both coasts. Main conclusions Our results indicate an important role of contemporary oceanographic and geographic features in determining the biogeography of species whose primary dispersal is during larval stages, suggesting that climate change is likely to alter patterns of species biogeography. Our results also demonstrate that species traits play a strong role in determining the location and strength of biogeographic barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change regulates autumn leaf senescence date (LSD), exhibiting a strong phenological control of plant carbon uptake. Unlike the delaying effect of daily mean temperature (Tmean) on LSD, the impact of warming asymmetry in daytime and nighttime, as evidenced by variations of the diurnal temperature range (DTR), remains elusive. The objectives of this study were to investigate physiological and ecological impacts of DTR on LSD using long‐term in situ observations and to predict the future trends of LSD under warming. Location: Europe. Time period: 1950–2015. Major taxa studied: Plant phenology. Methods: We used partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and ridge regression to explore the impacts of DTR on LSD. To quantify the importance of potential drivers of LSD, we trained random forest models and applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to isolate the marginal contributions of each predictor on LSD. For LSD modelling and projection, we first evaluated two temperature‐driven LSD models [i.e., cooling‐degree‐day (CDD, without DTR effect) and day–night‐temperature CDD (DNCDD, with DTR effect)], then applied them to predict future LSDs. Results: We found that observational increases in Tmean and DTR had contrasting effects on LSD. Increased Tmean delayed the LSD, whereas larger DTR overall had an advancing effect. Considering the DTR effect, the Tmean sensitivity of LSD was 14% lower than presently estimated (2.4 vs. 2.8 days °C−1). Warming asymmetry‐related drought stress and plant functional traits (i.e., plant isohydricity and water‐use efficiency) potentially explained the advancing effect of DTR on LSD. We found that current projections of future LSD are overestimated because the DTR effect is discounted, suggesting the need for an adequate understanding of how plant phenology responds to warming asymmetry. Main conclusions: Our findings highlight the importance of DTR in controlling LSD variations with an advancing‐dominant effect and call for the improvement of phenology modelling incorporating the DTR effect. Given that DTR showed a globally narrowing trend over the last several decades, more efforts are needed to understand the potential ecological impacts of warming asymmetry and vegetation response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Host to intricate networks of marine species, coral reefs are among the most biologically diverse ecosystems on Earth. Over the past few decades, major degradations of coral reefs have been observed worldwide, which is largely attributed to the effects of climate change and local stressors related to human activities. Now more than ever, characterizing how the environment shapes the dynamics of the reef ecosystem (e.g., shifts in species abundance, community changes, emergence of locally adapted populations) is key to uncovering the environmental drivers of reef degradation, and developing efficient conservation strategies in response. To achieve these objectives, it is pivotal that environmental data describing the processes driving such ecosystem dynamics, which occur across specific spatial and temporal scales, are easily accessible to coral reef researchers and conservation stakeholders alike. Main types of variable contained: Multiple environmental variables characterizing various facets of the reef environment, including water chemistry and physics (e.g., temperature, pH, chlorophyll concentration), local anthropogenic pressures (e.g., boat traffic, distance from agricultural or urban areas) and sea currents patterns. Spatial location and grain: Worldwide reef cells of 5 by 5 km. Time period and grain: Last 3–4 decades, monthly and yearly resolution. Major taxa and level of measurement: Environmental data important for coral reefs and associated biodiversity. Software format: Interactive web application available at https://recifs.epfl.ch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Until recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale. Location: Global, excluding Antarctica. Time period: 1995, 2050 and 2080. Major taxa studied: Reptiles. Methods: We modelled the distribution of 6296 reptile species and assessed potential global and realm‐specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species‐specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3768 range‐restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non‐modelled species. Results: Reptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographical realms, with the greatest decreases in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominant global poleward shift. Non‐modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species. Main conclusions: With ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect, in addition to considerable impacts on species range extent, overlap and position, was visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a re‐assessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: While drought and shade are critical factors that determine seedling survival and growth, whether the responses of woody seedlings to drought are facilitated, aggravated or unaffected by shade remains uncertain. Location: Global. Time period: 1993 to 2021. Major taxa studied: Woody plants. Methods: We compiled 58 studies (including 75 woody species from 33 families) in which water and light availability were simultaneously manipulated, and conducted a meta‐analysis on the acclimation and adaptive responses of biomass production and allocation and leaf traits to drought and/or shade. Results: Shade alleviated the adverse impact of drought on photosynthesis (A) by decreasing stomatal limitation and photoinhibition, and increasing leaf relative water content, and thus facilitated biomass production, but shade aggravated the effect of drought on osmotic adjustment as evidenced by the lack of responses of osmotic potential at the full turgor and modulus elasticity at the maximum turgor to drought under shade. The effects of drought and shade on biomass allocation and specific leaf area were orthogonal. Biomass responses to drought and its interaction with shade were least responsive for drought‐tolerators, but the individual and interactive effects of shade and drought on most traits showed little dependence on shade tolerance. Drought–shade interaction increased root biomass and root mass fraction more for deciduous angiosperms than for evergreen angiosperms. Main conclusions Both shade and drought had negative impacts on biomass production and photosynthesis, but their interaction had positive effects that were less significant for drought‐tolerators and evergreen angiosperms. In contrast to shade, drought increased biomass allocation to roots, but shade and drought had orthogonal effects on biomass allocation and leaf morphology. These acclimation and adaptive responses of woody seedlings to drought and shade individually and interactively have important implications for predicting woody plant growth and distribution under global climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Phenological models have become a vital tool for predicting future phenological responses to global climate change. Recently, machine learning (ML) has been used successfully to develop phenological models based on ground observations. However, fitting an observation series that has been observed for only a few years (or even a decade) can easily lead to overfitting, and it is still a great challenge to predict future phenology accurately based on a short observation series. Here, based on historical ground phenological observations, we construct an ML‐based binary classification phenological model that can be applied to temperate trees. Innovation: We thoroughly describe the construction process of a species‐specific ML‐based binary classification phenological model that is suitable for phenological predictions in both spring and autumn. Through experiments, we evaluate 18 commonly used ML classification algorithms and the effects of two parameters on the prediction performance of the model. Finally, we compare the performance between the binary classification model and six widely used ecophysiological models for accuracy of spring phenological prediction. Main conclusions: The median root mean square error (RMSE) of the binary classification model for the first flowering date (93 observation series) was only 2.99 days, which proves that it is a good method of phenological prediction for temperate trees. This model can effectively overcome the insufficient sample size of ground observations for specific species and provide new insights of phenological predictions for tropical and subtropical trees. The comparison of different ML algorithms showed that the median root mean square errors of the six algorithms were <3.5 days, and lower than those of six ecophysiological models (>3.7 days) in prediction of spring phenology. In addition, this model can help us to infer plant physiological mechanisms and drivers of phenological change and provide more accurate predictions of plant phenological responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Fungi are major drivers of ecosystem functioning. Increases in aridity are known to negatively impact fungal community composition in dryland ecosystems globally; yet, much less is known on the potential influence of other environmental drivers, and whether these relationships are linear or nonlinear. Time period: 2017–2021. Location: Global. Major taxa studied: Fungi. Methods: We re‐analysed multiple datasets from different dryland biogeographical regions, for a total of 912 samples and 1,483 taxa. We examined geographical patterns in community diversity and composition, and spatial, edaphic and climatic factors driving them. Results: UV index, climate seasonality, and sand content were the most important environmental predictors of community shifts, showing the strongest association with the richness of putative plant pathogens and saprobes. Important nonlinear relationships existed with each of these fungal guilds, with increases in UV and temperature seasonality above 7.5 and 900 SD (standard deviation x 100 of the mean monthly temperature), respectively, being associated with an increased probability of plant pathogen and unspecified saprotroph occurrence. Conversely, these environmental parameters had a negative relationship with litter and soil saprotroph richness. Consequently, these ecological groups might be particularly sensitive to shifts in UV radiation and climate seasonality, which is likely to disturb current plant–soil dynamics in drylands. Main conclusions: Our synthesis integrates fungal community data from drylands across the globe, allowing the investigation of fungal distribution and providing the first evidence of shifts in fungal diversity and composition of key fungal ecological groups along diverse spatial, climatic and edaphic gradients in these widely distributed ecosystems. Our findings imply that shifts in soil structure and seasonal climatic patterns induced by global change will have disproportionate consequences for the distribution of fungal groups linked to vegetation and biogeochemical cycling in drylands, with implications for plant–soil interactions in drylands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Soil organic carbon (SOC) stabilization has become an important topic in recent years in the context of global climate change. Microbial residues represent a significant component of stabilized SOC pools. However, spatial variations in the contributions of bacterial and fungal residues to SOC and their determinants at a continental scale remain poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the spatial variations and controls of the contributions of microbial residues to SOC in forest topsoil. Location: North–south transect in eastern China. Time period: 2014. Major taxa studied: Forest ecosystems. Methods: A total of 195 surface (0–10 cm) soils were sampled from 28 forest sites across tropical and boreal forests in eastern China from July to August to assess how biotic and abiotic factors govern the geographic patterns of the contributions of soil microbial residues (indicated by amino sugars) to SOC. Results: Fungal residues (30.0%) had a greater average contribution to SOC than bacterial residues (15.5%). The contributions of bacterial (CBR) and total microbial residues (CMR) to SOC showed negative latitudinal patterns and were positively correlated with mean annual temperature (MAT). In contrast, the contribution of fungal residues to SOC (CFR) showed no clear geographic or climatic patterns. On average, the CBR (9.7%), CFR (21.1%) and CMR (30.8%) were lower in boreal forests than in other biome forests. SOC concentration negatively mediated CBR, CFR and CMR. The piecewise structural equation model results showed that MAT was the primary driver of the geographic pattern of CBR, whereas SOC and soil carbon : nitrogen ratio were more directly associated with the CFR. Additionally, plant factors and microbial properties (i.e., microbial biomass and composition) played relatively little roles in regulating CBR, CFR and CMR. Main conclusions These findings advance the current knowledge of the different geographic patterns of CBR and CFR regulated by different potential mechanisms in forest ecosystems. This highlights that the dynamics of microbial residues could potentially have unexpected consequences for topsoil SOC stocks under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia. Location: Siberia. Time period: Pleistocene and Holocene. Major taxa studied: Steppe bison (Bison priscus). Methods: We configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate–human–steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern‐oriented modelling (POM) and fossil‐based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These "best models" were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia. Results: Our continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio‐temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon‐dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction for steppe bison in Siberia in the early Holocene required very specific ecological niche constraints, demographic processes and a constrained synergy of climate and human hunting dynamics during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. Main conclusions: Ecological processes and drivers that caused ancient population declines of species can be reconstructed at high spatio‐temporal resolutions using SEPMs and POM. Using this approach, we found that climatic change and hunting by humans are likely to have interacted with key ecological processes to cause the extinction of the steppe bison in its last refuge in Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Given the influence of seasonality on most ecological systems, an emerging research area attempts to understand how community network structure is shaped by seasonal climatic variations. To do so, most researchers conduct their analyses using open networks due to the high cost associated with constructing their own community networks. However, unwanted structural differences from the unique sampling and construction methods used to create each open network likely make comparing these networks a difficult task. Here, with the largest set of open bipartite networks collected to date, we test whether seasonal climatic variations explain network structure while additionally accounting for construction/sampling differences between networks. Location: Trying to approach global. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Plants and animals. Methods: Using 723 open bipartite networks, we test whether temperature and/or precipitation seasonality explains (un)weighted metrics of nestedness, modularity or specialization across plant–pollinator, seed‐dispersal, plant–ant, host–parasite or plant–herbivore systems. Results: Generally, seasonality only weakly explained network structure: at most 16% of the variation in weighted metrics and 5% of the variation in unweighted metrics. Instead, a control for sampling bias in networks, sampling intensity, often better explained many of the network structural metrics. When limiting our analyses to only intensely sampled networks, however, about 33% of the variation in weighted modularity and specialization was explained by seasonality, but only in plant–pollinator networks. Main conclusions: Altogether, we do not find strong evidence that seasonality explains network structure. Our study also highlights the large amount of structural differences in open networks, likely from the many different sampling and network construction techniques adopted by researchers when constructing networks. Hence, a definitive test for the relationship between network structure and seasonality across large spatial extents will require a dataset free from sampling and other biases, where networks are derived from a consistent sampling protocol that appropriately characterizes communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large‐scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range‐wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring. Location: Western United States. Major taxa studied: Two pinyon pine (Pinus spp.) and three juniper (Juniperus spp.) species. Methods: We developed range‐wide demographic models for five species using forest inventory data from across the western United States and estimated population trends and climate vulnerability. Results: We find that four of the five species are declining in parts of their range, with Pinus edulis having the largest proportion of populations declining (24%). Population vulnerability increases with aridity and temperature, with up to ~50% of populations declining in the warmest and driest conditions. Mortality and recruitment were both essential to explaining where populations are declining. Main conclusions Our results suggest that dry forest species are undergoing an active range shift driven by both changing recruitment and mortality, and that increasing temperatures and drought threaten the long‐term viability of many of these species in their current range. While four of the five species examined were experiencing some declines, P. edulis is currently most vulnerable. Management actions such as reducing tree density may be able to mitigate some of these impacts. The framework we present to estimate range‐wide demographic rates can be applied to other species to determine where range contractions are most likely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The environmental preferences of species are an important facet of their response to changing conditions, and these have long been thought to exhibit phylogenetic conservatism. However, these bioclimatic envelopes have not previously been imputed from climate records at the date and location of occurrence, and the strength of their phylogenetic signal has not been studied at a broad scale. Here, we combine records from global climate reconstructions with contemporaneous plant occurrences for all available terrestrial plant species and test for phylogenetic niche conservatism in plant climatic traits. Location: Global. Time period: 1901–2018. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial plants. Methods: We used >100 million plant records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to produce distributions of bioclimatic envelopes for >200,000 species, using a range of climate variables. We matched species observations to historical climate reconstructions from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and compared this with WorldClim climate averages. We tested for phylogenetic signal in a supertree of plants using Pagel's λ. Finally, to investigate how well bioclimatic envelopes could be inferred for poorly known and rare species, we performed cross‐validation by removing occurrence records for some common species to test how accurately their bioclimatic envelopes were estimated. Results: We found extremely strong phylogenetic signals (λ > 0.9 in some cases) for climate variables from both climate datasets, including temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. We were also able to impute missing bioclimatic envelopes for artificially removed species, having a correlation with observed data of.7. Main conclusions: We reconstructed plant climatic tolerances for >200,000 plant species historically recorded on GBIF using a technique that could be applied to any comparable biodiversity dataset. Although global information on most species is sparse, we explored methods for bias correction and data imputation, with positive results for both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The aim was to determine reef connectivity and future coral cover levels under global scenarios of coral bleaching loss and potential recovery. Location: Global coral reefs. Time period: Present‐day to 2100. Major taxa studied: Scleractinian coral. Methods: We used a global coral larval dispersal model that describes population connectivity among reefs at a resolution of ⅙° × ⅙° (c. 18 km × 18 km) cells. To simulate different patterns of bleaching events, we ran three scenarios at different levels of coral reef habitat loss followed by a reseeding of coral larvae from surviving reefs to simulate recovery. Results: We found a total of 604 distinct reef networks, but more than half of the world's reef cells are contained in six large coral reef networks (294–5,494 cells), whereas the rest form smaller networks. In the bleaching scenario where previously identified predicted climate refugia were maintained, initial connectivity was largely preserved even when 71% of global coral reef habitat was lost, but the relict reef cells were unable to reseed even 50% of former coral reef habitat because many of the relict reefs are in the same networks as each other. In scenarios where refugia were lost first or with random loss, less of the initial connectivity was maintained, but more widespread reseeding was possible because more reef cells within smaller networks were maintained. Main conclusions: Our findings highlight the importance of maintaining functional coral reef habitat outside of predicted climate refugia to sustain connectivity globally, and suggest an important role for "stepping stone" reefs between the climate refugia. Without attention to these issues of habitat loss and connectivity, much of global coral reef habitat might not be reseeded without human intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The aims were: (1) to identify the environmental drivers of interannual variation in wildfire extent and severity; (2) to examine temporal trends in climatic potential for large and severe wildfires; and (3) to assess whether environmental conditions experienced during the 2019–2020 mega‐fire season were anomalous. Location: South‐eastern Australia. Time period: 1953–2020. Major taxa studied: Temperate forests. Methods: We used satellite‐derived fire severity mapping from 1988 to 2020 to model the effects of drought, weather and fuels on the annual area burned and the proportion of the area burned that was impacted by high‐severity fire across four bioregions. Trends in wildfire extent and severity were then estimated from 1953 to 2020 using these derived models and gridded climate data to assess changes in climatic potential for large and severe wildfires. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity for the 2019–2020 fire season were then assessed against prior seasons (1953–2019). Results: Annual area burned was positively related to the severity of seasonal drought and frequency of fire weather conditions that promote substantial daily fire growth. Wildfire severity was elevated in years with severe fire weather and increased with increasing antecedent drought in years without severe fire weather. Fuels had a lesser effect on wildfire extent and severity than climate. Potential fire extent and severity have increased over time in response to an increased severity of drought and worsening fire weather conditions. Estimates of wildfire extent and severity during the 2019–2020 fire season approached the upper extreme within each bioregion, owing to widespread extreme climatic conditions. Main conclusions: The climatic potential for large and severe forest fires has increased across south‐eastern Australia since the 1950s, probably because of anthropogenic climate change. The magnitude and severity of the 2019–2020 fires reflected climatic conditions that are driving an increase in the size and severity of wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: 'Megafire' is an emerging concept commonly used to describe fires that are extreme in terms of size, behaviour, and/or impacts, but the term's meaning remains ambiguous. Approach: We sought to resolve ambiguity surrounding the meaning of 'megafire' by conducting a structured review of the use and definition of the term in several languages in the peer‐reviewed scientific literature. We collated definitions and descriptions of megafire and identified criteria frequently invoked to define megafire. We recorded the size and location of megafires and mapped them to reveal global variation in the size of fires described as megafires. Results: We identified 109 studies that define the term 'megafire' or identify a megafire, with the term first appearing in the peer‐reviewed literature in 2005. Seventy‐one (~65%) of these studies attempted to describe or define the term. There was considerable variability in the criteria used to define megafire, although definitions of megafire based on fire size were most common. Megafire size thresholds varied geographically from > 100–100,000 ha, with fires > 10,000 ha the most common size threshold (41%, 18/44 studies). Definitions of megafire were most common from studies led by authors from North America (52%, 37/71). We recorded 137 instances from 84 studies where fires were reported as megafires, the vast majority (94%, 129/137) of which exceed 10,000 ha in size. Megafires occurred in a range of biomes, but were most frequently described in forested biomes (112/137, 82%), and usually described single ignition fires (59% 81/137). Conclusion: As Earth's climate and ecosystems change, it is important that scientists can communicate trends in the occurrence of larger and more extreme fires with clarity. To overcome ambiguity, we suggest a definition of megafire as fires > 10,000 ha arising from single or multiple related ignition events. We introduce two additional terms – gigafire (> 100,000 ha) and terafire (> 1,000,000 ha) – for fires of an even larger scale than megafires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Mangrove forests are important coastal wetlands for the blue carbon budget and play a significant role in mitigating global climate change. However, spatial patterns of carbon stocks in mangrove forests on an island scale have not been quantified owing to methodological limitations and lack of understanding of controlling factors. We took the entire Hainan Island as a case study and aimed to carry out a comprehensive investigation of the spatial patterns and driving factors of carbon stocks in mangrove forests. Location: Southern China. Time period: 2017–2020. Major taxa studied: Mangrove forest. Methods: The upscaling method combined with field surveys and Sentinel‐2 imagery analysis were used to compare different models for optimization of mangrove ecosystem carbon stock estimations. We also used structural equation modelling (SEM) to evaluate the factors driving the distributional patterns of mangrove carbon stocks on an island scale. Results: The current total mangrove carbon stock of the entire Hainan Island was estimated to be 703,181 Mg C (with a mean density of 192 Mg C/ha), with the above‐ and below‐ground carbon stocks averaging at 44.7 and 147.3 Mg C/ha, respectively. The mangrove carbon storage in the north‐eastern region of the island was the highest and in the west region the lowest. Sediment nitrogen content and plant species diversity had the most positive driving effects on the distribution of total carbon stock for Hainan Island mangroves. Main conclusions: The combination of field surveys and Sentinel‐2 imagery analysis can be applied to regional‐scale estimations of carbon stocks for mangrove forests. Spatial pattens of mangrove carbon stocks vary among locations on Hainan Island, and soil nutrient (especially nitrogen) availability is the dominant factor regulating carbon stock variations along the land‐to‐sea gradient. Our findings have significant implications for better understanding the distribution of mangrove carbon stocks and quantification of the global blue carbon budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Marine biodiversity is increasingly threatened by overfishing and climate change, but it is still unclear how these drivers have shaped the functional diversity (FD) of marine fish. Here, we explore how the FD of commercial marine fish communities responds to climate change and fishing pressure. Major taxa studied: Marine fish. Location: China Seas. Time period: 1989–2018. Methods: We used a catch database of four individual species and 12 species groups that were reported continuously in China from 1989 to 2018. Seven traits were selected to calculate FD. We adopted generalized linear mixed models to analyse the complex relationship among climate change, fishing pressure and several metrics of marine fish FD. We identified the percentage change in diversity for communities to assess the relative contribution of each species or species group by removing individual species or a species group from the dataset. Results: Climate change and fishing pressure exerted statistically significant opposing effects on the functional evenness (FEve) and functional divergence (FDiv) of commercial fish communities. Increasing sea surface temperature had a significant positive effect on FEve but a negative effect on FDiv. In contrast, increasing fishing pressure had the opposite effects on FEve and FDiv. These results were driven by the significantly varying relative contributions of fish species or species groups to the functional space, whereby low‐trophic‐level pelagic fish species or species groups are closer to the boundaries of the functional trait space than high‐trophic‐level demersal fish species or species groups. Main conclusions: The FD of commercial marine fish communities responds significantly to climate warming and increasing fishing pressure, with opposite effects driven by different response patterns of fish species or species groups. Our results suggest that management actions should address the two issues simultaneously, because considering only one will unleash greater functional changes in the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Fresh carbon (C) inputs to the soil can have important consequences for the decomposition rates of soil organic matter (priming effect), thereby impacting the delicate global C balance at the soil–atmosphere interface. Yet, the environmental factors that control soil priming effect intensity remain poorly understood at a global scale. Location: Global. Time period: 1980–2020. Major taxa studied: Soil priming effect intensity. Methods: We conducted a global dataset of CO2 effluxes in 711 pairwise soils with 13C or 14C simple C sources inputs and without C inputs from incubation experiments in which isotope‐labelled C was used to quantify fresh C‐induced rather than exudate‐induced priming. Results: Soil priming effect intensity is predominantly positive. Soil texture and C content were identified as the most important factors associated with priming effects, with sandy soils from tropical and mid‐latitudes supporting the highest soil priming effect intensity, and soils with greater C content and fine textures from high latitudes maintaining the lowest soil priming effects. The negative association between C content and soil priming effect intensity was also indirectly driven by changing mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and fungi : bacteria ratio. Using this information, we generated a global map of soil priming effect intensity, and found that the priming was lower at high latitudes and higher at lower latitudes. Main conclusions: Global patterns of soil priming effect intensity can be predicted using environmental data, with soil texture and C content playing a predominant role in explaining in priming effects. These effects were also indirectly driven by climate, vegetation and soil microbial properties. We present the first global atlas of soil priming effect intensity and advance our knowledge on the potential mechanisms underlying soil priming effect intensity, which are integral to improving the climate change and soil C dynamics components of Earth System models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Our ability to understand how species may respond to changing climate conditions is hampered by a lack of high‐quality data on the adaptive capacity of species. Plant functional traits are linked to many aspects of species life history and adaptation to environment, with different combinations of trait values reflecting alternate strategies for adapting to varied conditions. If the realized climate limits of species can be partially explained by plant functional trait combinations, then a new approach of using trait combinations to predict the expected climate limits of species trait combinations may offer considerable benefits. Location: Australia. Time period: Current and future. Methods: Using trait data for leaf size, seed mass and plant height for 6,747 Australian native species from 27 plant families, we model the expected climate limits of trait combinations and use future climate scenarios to estimate climate change impacts based on plant functional trait strategies. Results: Functional trait combinations were a significant predictor of species climate niche metrics with potentially meaningful relationships with two rainfall variables (R2 =.36 &.45) and three temperature variables (R2 =.21,.28,.30). Using this method, the proportion of species exposed to conditions across their range that are beyond the expected climate limits of their trait strategies will increase under climate change. Main conclusions: Our new approach, called trait strategy vulnerability, includes three new metrics. For example, the climate change vulnerability (CCV) metric identified a small but important proportion of species (4.3%) that will on average be exposed to conditions beyond their expected limits for summer temperature in the future. These potentially vulnerable species could be high priority targets for deeper assessment of adaptive capacity at the genomic or physiological level. Our methods can be applied to any suite of co‐occurring plants globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Factors that make species resilient to climate change can be difficult to study with empirical data because conditions cannot be experimentally controlled. We used trait‐based evolutionary ecological agent‐based modelling to understand how dispersal, selection, extirpation, and other factors contribute to resilience under three climate change scenarios to test the extent to which high dispersal rate contributes to persistence of species and the extent to which they occupy large geographic ranges on an evolutionary time‐scale involving speciation, dispersal, gene flow, and extinction. Location: Hesperia (an imaginary continent with controlled environmental heterogeneity). Major taxa studied: Modelled mammalian herbivore clade with 16 terminal species, each of which is a metapopulation with a variable number of local populations. Methods: We used NetLogo to model trait‐based biotic responses to climate change in an environmentally heterogeneous continent in an evolving clade, the species of which are each represented by local populations that disperse and interbreed; they also are subject to selection, genetic drift, and local extirpation. We simulated mammalian herbivores, whose success depends on tooth crown height, vegetation type, precipitation and grit. Results: We found that high dispersal probability usually allowed species to successfully track their ancestral habitat as the continent's geography was altered by climate change. However, tracking was insufficient to allow species' traits to adapt to novel habitats that arose through the climate change process. High dispersal rates combined with moderate plasticity (lower extirpation risk) facilitated occupation of novel habitats, as did weak selective regimes. Main conclusions: The interaction between dispersal, probability of local extirpation, and selection intensity were jointly required to understand the likelihood of species survival and how widespread they would be. Diversity and geographic occupancy were maximized when parameters facilitated evolutionary adaptation to novel habitats. High rates of dispersal were sufficient for habitat tracking but insufficient by themselves to allow occupation of newly emerged environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Terrestrial biodiversity is threatened by land use change. Modelling suggests that the remaining, potentially arable areas of natural intact vegetation (rNIV) of 9 of 35 global biodiversity hotspots may be converted to agriculture by 2050, committing their endemic species to extinction. Studies have shown that if the global population adopted a healthy, mostly plant based diet, agricultural area expansion can be reduced. We want to examine to what degree this applies to the regions covered by biodiversity hotspots. Location: Global. Time period: 2020–2050. Major taxa studied: No particular taxa. Methods: For every biodiversity hotspot, we simulate climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, and estimate food demand shifts from 2010 to 2050 by processing population and income growth projections. We quantify the net change in rNIV by 2050 in all hotspots by calculating the agricultural area necessary to meet the food demand under a business as usual, a healthy diet, a healthy diet plus agricultural intensification, and a healthy diet plus agricultural intensification plus crop change scenario. Results: In the healthy diet scenario, the rNIV of 16–21 hotspots can be preserved entirely, but 5–6 hotspots in less developed regions may lose all rNIV to agricultural area expansion. In these regions, a healthy diet implies an increase in consumed calories and no change in the already high share of plant‐based calories. When combined with agricultural intensification, these hotspots will still lose 7%–92% of rNIV. Only an additional change in crop mix patterns may preserve all. Main conclusions: While a change in dietary habits may be sufficient for preservation of rNIV in many hotspot regions, a healthy diet actually puts more pressure on rNIV in other hotspot regions. Intensifying agriculture and optimizing crop selection should be priorities in those regions to mitigate the expected loss of rNIV to agricultural expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Global declines in structurally complex habitats are reshaping both land‐ and seascapes in directions that affect the responses of biological communities to warming. Here, we test whether widespread loss of kelp habitats through sea urchin overgrazing systematically changes the sensitivity of fish communities to warming. Location: Global temperate latitudes. Time period: Modern. Major taxa studied: Fishes. Methods: Community shifts in thermal affinity related to habitat were assessed by simulating and comparing fish communities from 2271 surveys across 15 ecoregions. Results: We found that fishes in kelp and urchin barrens differed in realized thermal affinities and range sizes, but only in regions where species pools had high variability in the thermal affinities of species. Barrens on warm temperate reefs host relatively more warm‐affinity fish species than neighbouring kelp beds, highlighting the acceleration of tropicalization processes facilitated by urchin grazing. In contrast, proportionally more cool‐affinity fishes colonize barrens at high temperate latitudes, contributing to community lags with ocean warming in these regions. Main conclusions: Our findings implicate urchins as drivers of ecological change, in part by affecting ecological resilience to warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The abundances and distributions of some species are more closely matched to variations in climate than others. Species traits that might influence how well the distribution and abundance of a species are matched to climatic variation include life history (e.g., body size and dispersal ability), ecology (e.g., habitat specialization and territoriality) and demography (e.g., population size). Here, we used a survey of bird abundances across the USA to assess the extent to which species abundances and distributions are predicted by climate (i.e., climate matching) and how species traits relate to interspecific variation in climate matching. Location: USA. Time period: 1983–2018. Major taxa studied: Birds. Methods: Species abundances were obtained from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Climate matching was estimated as the predictive performance of species–climate models fitted using boosted regression trees and generalized additive models and modelled as a function of species traits. Results: Species traits explained 56% of the variation in climate matching among species. Intermediate‐sized species were more well matched to climate than smaller or larger species, as were species that lived primarily in forested compared with open habitats, species that were locally more abundant and species that were more territorial. Alternatively, species that were more specialized or had high variability in abundance among sites were less well matched to climate. We also found that species classified as "near threatened" were more well matched to climate, suggesting that these species might be more vulnerable to climate change. However, species classified as "vulnerable" were more decoupled from climate than those of "least concern", possibly owing to ecological drift associated with progressive population declines. Main conclusions: Our findings provide an ecological basis for understanding the extent to which species abundances and distributions match broad climatic gradients, which can provide the groundwork to improve our ability to predict distributions under global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The aim was to identify the primary drivers of compositional change in breeding bird assemblages over a 40‐year period. Location: Britain. Time period: From 1970 to 2010. Major taxa studied: Birds. Methods: Using morphological trait measurements and a dataset of presence–absence data for British breeding birds surveyed in 10 km × 10 km hectads during two time periods, we calculated temporal taxonomic and functional beta diversity for each hectad alongside the change in species richness, mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD) and mean pairwise distance (MPD). We also estimated potential drivers of beta diversity, including climatic and land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change variables, elevation and assemblage species richness in 1970 (1970rich). We used random forest regressions to test which variables best explained compositional change in the assemblages. We also assessed spatial taxonomic and functional change by analysing multiple‐site beta diversity and pairwise dissimilarities between time periods. Results: Initial (1970) species richness was the most important predictor (highest importance score) across all models, with areas characterized by higher initial richness experiencing less assemblage change overall. The coordinates included to capture spatial autocorrelation in the data were also important predictors of change. Most climate and LULC variables had relatively low explanatory power; elevation and average temperature were the most influential. All metrics increased slightly with increasing elevation, except for species richness change and MPD, which decreased. Main conclusions: The composition of British breeding bird assemblages changed substantially between 1970 and 2010. Spatial heterogeneity increased, both taxonomically and functionally. We show evidence that hectads with larger assemblages have been buffered from temporal diversity change and that those at higher elevations changed more in composition than those at lower elevations. Overall, coarse‐resolution climate and LULC explained only small to moderate amounts of variation, suggesting that stochastic assembly change or finer‐scale drivers might be drivers of temporal changes in assemblage composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The aims of this study were to evaluate the changes in the length of the time period between leaf‐out and flowering across temperate tree species, and associate these changes with potential physiological and environmental drivers to enhance mechanistic insight into these phenomena. Location: Central Europe. Time period: 1980–2016. Major taxa studied: Six temperate woody species. Methods: Statistical analyses were carried out based on long‐term ground observations of both spring leaf‐out and flowering across temperate tree species during 1980–2016, a period characterized by rapid warming. Results: The temperature sensitivity of flowering (−5.4 ± 0.04 days/℃, mean ± SE) was higher than that of leaf‐out (−4.6 ± 0.04 days/℃) across all species, regardless of whether leaf‐out occurred before or after flowering. This study postulates a hypothesis attributing the different temperature sensitivities to different thermal sensitivities, thermal requirements, and photoperiodic controls. Main conclusions: The larger temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf‐out resulted in an extended time period between flowering and leaf‐out in species that bloom before leafing out, but a shorter time period between these phenophases in species with the opposite strategy. We would like to emphasize the importance of changes in time period between different phenophases, and we recommend conducting experimental research to reveal the underlying mechanisms of plant phenology response to climate change, and to explore its potential ecological implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Soil respiration (RS) is one of the largest fluxes in the global carbon cycle. It is composed of respiration by roots and heterotrophic organisms, with each component having distinctive drivers and sensitivities and, consequently, varying feedback potential to climate change. Global drivers of the total flux of RS are widely studied and generally accepted, but our understanding of the factors governing its component fluxes lags far behind. Location: Global. Time period: 1962–2015. Major taxa studied: Plant roots and soil microbes. Methods: Combining a newly updated global database of RS partitioning measurements with biotic and abiotic variables, we examined the world‐wide distribution of the proportion of the annual root respiration (Rroot) contribution to RS (Rroot:RS). We investigated how Rroot:RS varies by ecosystem type, measurement method and climate. We used a random forest model to predict the relationship between field measurements of Rroot:RS (n = 880) and 14 biotic and abiotic factors, including climate, nitrogen deposition, soil, mycorrhiza, biomass and satellite‐derived greenness. Finally, we present a global map of predicted Rroot:RS at 0.5° resolution. Results: Consistent with previous studies, we found no clear trends of mean Rroot:RS across ecosystem types and measurement methods. The area‐weighted overall mean of predicted Rroot:RS was.42 (SD ±.18; i.e., 42% of total global RS was generated by plant roots). Predicted Rroot:RS and related environmental factors did exhibit clear spatial patterns between climatic regions, with higher Rroot:RS in dry and cold regions and lower Rroot:RS in temperate and tropical regions. Main conclusions: Given that Rroot:RS is linked to plant carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net primary production to gross primary production), but generated from measurements completely independent of plant CUE, it might provide crucial insights into ecosystem‐ to global‐scale carbon cycling. This study thus provides a framework to explore global carbon allocation under global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: An important research question in ecology is how climate and the biodiversity of aboveground plants and belowground microbiomes affect ecosystem functions such as nutrient pools. However, little is studied on the concurrent role of above‐ and belowground species composition in shaping the spatial distribution patterns of ecosystem functions across environmental gradients. Here, we investigated the relationships between the taxonomic composition of plants, soil bacteria and soil fungi and spatial turnover in nutrient pools, and assessed how species composition–nutrient pool relationships were mediated by contemporary climatic conditions. Location: Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Plants, soil bacteria and soil fungi. Methods: We surveyed plant assemblages, sampled the taxonomic composition of soil bacteria and soil fungi, and measured plant‐ and soil‐mediated nutrient pools at 60 alpine grasslands on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau. Using Mantel tests, structural equation models and general linear models, we investigated the relative importance of the taxonomic composition of plant, soil bacterial, and soil fungal communities on the spatial turnover of alpine grassland nutrient pools. Results: We found that the taxonomic composition of plant, soil bacterial, and soil fungal communities was associated with local climate. However, the effects of local climate on the spatial turnover of plant‐ and soil‐mediated nutrient pools were mainly indirect and mediated through plant and soil bacterial species composition, but not through soil fungal species composition. We further found that the replacement component of soil bacterial β‐diversity and the richness difference of plant β‐diversity were the direct predictors of nutrient pools in the alpine grasslands. Main conclusions: These results highlight that belowground bacterial composition together with aboveground plant species composition are related to spatial turnover in nutrient pools, perhaps even driving it. Conserving above‐ and belowground biodiversity may therefore safeguard against the impacts of local climate on the functions of climate‐sensitive alpine grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate warming and biodiversity loss both alter plant productivity, yet we lack an understanding of how biodiversity regulates the responses of ecosystems to warming. In this study, we examine how plant diversity regulates the responses of grassland productivity to experimental warming using meta‐analytic techniques. Location: Global. Major taxa studied: Grassland ecosystems. Methods: Our meta‐analysis is based on warming responses of 40 different plant communities obtained from 20 independent studies on grasslands across five continents. Results: Our results show that plant diversity and its responses to warming were the most important factors regulating the warming effects on plant productivity, among all the factors considered (plant diversity, climate and experimental settings). Specifically, warming increased plant productivity when plant diversity (indicated by effective number of species) in grasslands was lower than 10, whereas warming decreased plant productivity when plant diversity was greater than 10. Moreover, the structural equation modelling showed that the magnitude of warming enhanced plant productivity by increasing the performance of dominant plant species in grasslands of diversity lower than 10. The negative effects of warming on productivity in grasslands with plant diversity greater than 10 were partly explained by diversity‐induced decline in plant dominance. Main conclusions: Our findings suggest that the positive or negative effect of warming on grassland productivity depends on how biodiverse a grassland is. This may mainly be due to differences in how warming may affect plant dominance and subsequent shifts in interspecific interactions in grasslands of different plant diversity levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Geographic range size varies greatly across species. Climate, along with aspects of a species' biology, may influence its spatial extent. We investigate intrinsic and extrinsic predictors of range size in Australian skinks. We predicted that larger body size, longer limbs, and larger clutch sizes would be associated with larger ranges, and that ranges would be larger in colder, more arid, and more seasonal climates. Location: Mainland Australia. Taxon: Skinks (Scincidae). Methods: We test for climatic and geographic correlates of range size of Australian skink species (417 of 462 described species), as well as investigate the effects of body size and clutch size (259 species). We compare detailed morphological measurements of 1,324 specimens across nine pairs of widespread and narrow‐ranged congeneric species to investigate the roles of intrinsic (body size, clutch size, morphology) and extrinsic (mean temperature and precipitation) factors in determining range size. Results: In the broader analysis, large range sizes were associated with the presence of fully developed limbs, low precipitation seasonality, high temperatures, and high precipitation. Ranges of species traversing the Great Dividing Range are larger by an order of magnitude than those east of the range, with western ranges being intermediate. Affinity to specific biomes explained less variation than climatic variables. For the nine species pairs, wide‐ranging species share similar morphologies and clutch sizes with overlapping narrow‐ranging congeners, but generally inhabit more arid regions. Main conclusions: We found several extrinsic, but few intrinsic, factors were correlated with range size. The narrow mesic belts in Australia compared with the extensive expanse of arid and semi‐arid regions may explain why desert species have larger ranges. This interpretation agrees with the notion that the size of the domain, here a climatic domain rather than a physical one, may exert strong influence on species' range sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Tree life spans, as an important determinant of carbon turnover in forest ecosystems, are strongly linked to climate change. Enhanced drought has led to extensive tree mortality, but whether climate dryness will widely shorten tree life spans remains unclear. Here we aimed to establish the relationship between climate dryness and tree life span, and identify the regulatory effects of functional traits on tree life span. Location: Global. Time period: Until 2015. Major taxa studied: Woody plants. Methods: We used tree ring records sampled at 2,348 sites ranging from the tropics to Arctic regions to estimate tree life span. First, we investigated which of nine functional traits related to trees' adaptability best explained the variation in tree life span. Second, we established a structural equation model between climate dryness, functional traits and tree life span to illustrate the regulatory effects of climate dryness and trees' adaptability on tree life span. Results: Our results suggested that tree life span significantly increased with climate dryness across biomes. Hydraulic traits indicating the adaptability of trees to climate dryness regulated the relationship between climate dryness and tree life span. Trees with high‐density wood or with high resistance to drought‐induced embolisms extend their life span with increasing climate dryness, but climate dryness reduces the life spans of low‐drought‐tolerance trees. Main conclusions: Tree life span is not fixed within species but regulated by climate dryness and trees' hydraulic adaptability to drought. Our large‐scale links between climate change and tree life span allow for incorporation of these factors into future Earth system models for a better representation of climate‐driven forest dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Leaf traits represent an important component of plant functional strategies, and those related to carbon fixation and nutrient acquisition form the leaf economics spectrum. However, observations of functional leaf traits are underrepresented in tropical regions in comparison with those in temperate areas. Brazil, a country with continental scale and vast biodiversity is a timely example, where many biomes are impacted by human activities and climate change. However, leaf traits relevant to understand vegetation responses to these impacts remain poorly quantified for many species found in the country. We compiled an extensive data set of four functional leaf traits for native woody species occurring in the Brazilian territory. In addition to trait observations, sampling dates and geo‐references were compiled and climatic parameters and soil properties of each sampling site were extracted from several databases. Main types of variables contained: The LT‐Brazil data set contains 3,479, 1,216, 775 and 775 clean observations of leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen (N) concentration per unit mass, leaf phosphorus (P) concentration per unit mass, and leaf N : P ratio, respectively, from native woody species, encompassing information of biome, vegetation, taxonomic data, geographical coordinates, climatic parameters, as well as soil properties. Spatial location and grain: We compiled trait observations from 223 sites under native vegetation distributed in all main biomes (i.e., Amazônia, Caatinga, Cerrado, Mata Atlântica, Pampa and Pantanal) across the Brazilian territory. Time period and grain: The data represent information published and/or sampled during the last 25 years. Major taxa and level of measurement: Our compilation was focused on trait data observed for native woody species, excluding monocots, palm trees, herbs, and hemiparasitic plants. Thus, 108, 478 and 1,321 botanical families, genera and species were included, covering c. 9% of the woody angiosperm flora of Brazil. Software format: Data are provided as comma‐separated value (.csv) files. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Plant growth and phenology respond plastically to changing climatic conditions in both space and time. Species‐specific levels of growth plasticity determine biogeographical patterns and the adaptive capacity of species to climate change. However, a direct assessment of spatial and temporal variability in radial growth dynamics is complicated, because long records of cambial phenology do not exist. Location: Sixteen sites across European distribution margins of Juniperus communis L. (the Mediterranean, the Arctic, the Alps and the Urals). Time period: 1940–2016. Major taxa studied: Juniperus communis. Methods: We applied the Vaganov–Shashkin process‐based model of wood formation to estimate trends in growing season duration and growth kinetics since 1940. We assumed that J. communis would exhibit spatially and temporally variable growth patterns reflecting local climatic conditions. Results: Our simulations indicate regional differences in growth dynamics and plastic responses to climate warming. The mean growing season duration is the longest at Mediterranean sites and, recently, there has been a significant trend towards its extension of up to 0.44 days/year. However, this stimulating effect of a longer growing season is counteracted by declining summer growth rates caused by amplified drought stress. Consequently, overall trends in simulated ring widths are marginal in the Mediterranean. In contrast, durations of growing seasons in the Arctic show lower and mostly non‐significant trends. However, spring and summer growth rates follow increasing temperatures, leading to a growth increase of up to 0.32 %/year. Main conclusions: This study highlights the plasticity in growth phenology of widely distributed shrubs to climate warming: an earlier onset of cambial activity that offsets the negative effects of summer droughts in the Mediterranean and, conversely, an intensification of growth rates during the short growing seasons in the Arctic. Such plastic growth responsiveness allows woody plants to adapt to the local pace of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: The understanding of physiological adaptations, of evolutionary radiations and of ecological responses to global change urges for global, comprehensive databases of the functional traits of extant organisms. The ability to maintain an adequate water balance is a critical functional property influencing the resilience of animal species to climate variation. In terrestrial or semi‐terrestrial organisms, total water loss includes a significant contribution from evaporative water loss (EWL). The analysis of geographic and phylogenetic variation in EWL rates must however account for differences in methods and potential confounding factors, which influence standard measures of whole‐organism water loss. We compiled the global and standardized SquamEWL database of total, respiratory and cutaneous EWL for 325 species and subspecies of squamate reptiles (793 samples and 2,536 estimates) from across the globe. An extensive set of companion data and annotations associated with the EWL measurements of potential value for future investigation, including metabolic rate data, is provided. We present preliminary descriptive statistics for the compiled data, discuss gaps and biases, and identify promising avenues to update, expand and explore this database. Main types of variables contained: Standard water loss rates, geographic data, metabolic rates. Spatial location: Global. Time period: Data were obtained from extant species and were collected between 1945 and 2020. Major taxa: Reptilia, Squamata including lizards, snakes and amphisbaenians. Level of measurements: Individual samples of animals from the same species, locality, age class and sex category. Software format: csv. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Previous studies have found strikingly different geographical patterns of phylogenetic diversity of gymnosperms and angiosperms, which have been suggested to result, in part, from the greater age of the former. To assess the effects of clade age on phylogenetic structure, we assessed phylodiversity patterns of pteridophytes (lycophytes and ferns), which combine ancient and modern lineages, across China. Location: China. Time period: Present day. Taxon: Pteridophytes. Methods: We divided China into 66 regions and collated species lists of pteridophytes for each region. We then related taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, and their related metrics, to six climatic variables for pteridophytes as a whole and for different evolutionary clades. We examined the effect of spatial autocorrelation among regional floras on the results. Results: We found that when all pteridophytes or ferns were considered, the patterns resembled those of gymnosperms, presumably reflecting the effects of several ancient global mass extinctions and the relict distribution of old families. In contrast, when we considered only the modern Polypodiales radiation, which accounts for three‐quarters of current fern diversity and is about as old as the angiosperm radiation, we found a pattern similar to that of angiosperms. This pattern is consistent with the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis and suggests that both major groups of land plants have a broadly similar evolutionary trajectory, with most families originating in tropical conditions and few families adapting to cold and arid conditions. Main conclusions: Our study shows that the phylogenetic structures of more recently evolved and diversified clades of pteridophytes are fairly consistent with the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis, suggesting that the age of the taxon, its physiological adaptations and the global climatic changes that it experienced during its evolutionary history are reflected in the composition of current plant assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]