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Bergmann's rule generally predicts larger animal body sizes with colder climates. We tested whether Bergmann's rule at the interspecific level applies to moths (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) along an extended elevational gradient in the Ecuadorian Andes. Moths were sampled at 22 sites in the province Zamora-Chinchipe in southern Ecuador in forest habitats ranging from 1040 m to 2677 m above sea level. Wingspans of 2282 male geometrid moths representing 953 species were measured and analysed at the level of the family Geometridae, as well as for the subfamily Ennominae with the tribes Boarmiini and Ourapterygini, and the subfamily Larentiinae with the genera Eois, Eupithecia and Psaliodes. Bergmann's rule was not supported since the average wingspan of geometrid moths was negatively correlated with altitude ( r = −0.59, P < 0.005). The relationship between body size and altitude in Geometridae appears to be spurious because species of the subfamily Larentiinae are significantly smaller than species of the subfamily Ennominae and simultaneously increase in their proportion along the gradient. A significant decrease of wingspan was also found in the ennomine tribe Ourapterygini, but no consistent body size patterns were found in the other six taxa studied. In most taxa, body size variation increases with altitude, suggesting that factors acting to constrain body size might be weaker at high elevations. The results are in accordance with previous studies that could not detect consistent body size patterns in insects at the interspecific level along climatic gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broad-scale spatial patterns of species richness are very strongly correlated with climatic variables. If there is a causal link, i.e. if climate directly or indirectly determines patterns of richness, then when the climatic variables change, richness should change in the manner that spatial correlations between richness and climate would predict. The present study tests this prediction using seasonal changes in climatic variables and bird richness. We used a grid of equal area quadrats (37 000 km2) covering North and Central America as far south as Nicaragua. Summer and winter bird distribution data were drawn from monographs and field guides. Climatic data came from published sources. We also used remotely sensed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index — a measure of greenness). Bird species richness changes temporally (between summer and winter) in a manner that is close to, but statistically distinguishable from, the change one would predict from models relating the spatial variation in richness at a single time to climatic variables. If one further takes into account the seasonal changes in NDVI and within-season variability of temperature and precipitation, then winter and summer richness follow congruent, statistically indistinguishable patterns. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation cover directly or indirectly influence patterns of bird species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To investigate the general pattern of changes in species richness and diversity of vascular plants due to environmental contamination and associated habitat changes imposed by point polluters, and identify the sources of variation in the response of plant communities to industrial pollution. Location Global. Methods We collected species richness and diversity data from 86 studies that were conducted around 60 atmospheric point polluters worldwide and reported in 95 papers (published in 1953–2007). We used meta-analysis to search for a general effect and to compare between polluter types and plant groups, and linear regression to describe the latitudinal gradient and to quantify relationships between pollution and effect size. Results Although the species richness of vascular plants generally decreased with pollution, the effects were not uniform across the studies. Polluters that cause soil acidification imposed a stronger detrimental effect on plant diversity than industries whose emissions increased soil pH. An overall adverse effect was primarily due to the contribution of non-ferrous smelters and aluminium plants; the effects of other SO2-emitting industries were less detrimental, albeit negative, and the effects of chemical plants, fertilizer factories and cement industries did not differ from zero. Longevity of the pollution impact only made a slight contribution to the detected variation, while adverse effects increased with increase in pollution load. Main conclusions This study is the first demonstration of geographical variation in the responses of plant communities to aerial emissions: adverse effects increased from high to low latitudes, and this pattern was explained primarily by increases in both the diversity of original (undisturbed) communities and mean summer temperatures. The latter result suggests that under a future warmer climate the existing pollution loads may become more harmful. Model calculations indicate that a detectable depauperation of plant communities is unlikely if the polluter emits < 1500 t of SO2 annually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Rainfall reliability has been neglected as a determinant of plant trait convergence and divergence in mediterranean-climate ecosystems. This paper reports on patterns of rainfall reliability — quantified as interannual variation in monthly and seasonal rainfall, and as the frequency of individual events in terms of their size, duration and intensity — for four fire-prone mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Location The four mediterranean-climate regions of the world with fire-prone ecosystems, namely SW Cape (South Africa), SW Australia, California and the Mediterranean Basin (Andalusia, Spain). Methods Using long-term monthly rainfall data from stations dispersed across the four regions, we computed monthly means and interannual variation for each month of the year — the latter quantified as the coefficient of variation (CV) — and divided these into winter and summer seasons. We also computed the mean number of rainfall events, the mean frequency in various categories of event duration (days), the amount of rainfall per event (mm) and the rainfall intensity per event (mm/day) per year for winter and summer seasons for a subset of the rainfall stations. Results The fraction of rain falling in summer was lowest in California (5%) and similarly low ( c. 25%) in the other three regions. The hierarchy of values of coefficient of variation (CV) of monthly rainfall during the winter period was as follows: California > Andalusia >> SW Cape > SW Australia; results for summer were: California > > Andalusia >> SW Australia ∼ SW Cape. SW Australian sites experienced the greatest frequency of short, small and low-intensity rainfall events in both seasons; patterns in the SW Cape were intermediate between Australia and the two northern hemisphere sites which both received fewer, larger and more intense events. Overall, the two southern hemisphere regions (SW Australia and the SW Cape) had significantly more reliable regimes than the two northern hemisphere ones (Mediterranean Basin and California). Main conclusions These differences in rainfall reliability regimes may provide a novel perspective on the distribution of certain plant life-history traits in mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Less reliable regimes would select for germination and seedling survival traits that enable persistence of genets in the face of uncertain moisture conditions during the winter and spring establishment phase. Study systems that accommodate for phylogenetic constraints, namely invasive species derived from mediterranean-climate ecosystems, as well as shared lineages, provide good opportunities to develop and test hypotheses on the implication of different rainfall reliability regimes. One of the novel implications of this study is that the distinctive trait of assemblages in the southern hemisphere regions may be a consequence not so much of their shared nutrient-poor soils as of their similarly reliable rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate change has the potential to have an impact on the distribution of ticks and tick-borne diseases. This paper identifies the changes in climate suitability for the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus in the Americas by analysing climate data for the period 1950–99. Location The model was applied to the American continent. Methods A model based on Environmental Niche Modelling was used on a gridded (0.5°) long-term (1950–99) climate data set. A map of the core range of the species was constructed, and areas where habitat suitability (HS) changes suddenly over short time periods were identified as regions of high sensitivity. Tendency of climate in the continent was evaluated and scenarios constructed for 2025 and 2050. Results Regions of high sensitivity included the southern USA, Mexico and western and central Argentina. Analysis of climate variables in these regions identified water vapour pressure deficit and evaporation as underlying the high sensitivity of habitat suitability in the USA and Mexico, and showed that episodes of high variability are linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Projections of the tendency of HS as observed for the 1950–99 period point to an increase in this value in parts of the southern USA and in central Argentina, a finding that can be attributed to the progressive increase in minimum and yearly averaged temperatures. Conclusions Short-term changes in climate may drive the system into unstable situations with sudden changes in habitat suitability for the target tick in specific zones of the Americas. Results suggest an increased abiotic (climate) suitability for R. microplus in areas whose habitat is currently unsuitable for this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that interannual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim To understand how vegetation mediates the interplay between fire and climate. Specifically, we predict that neither the switching of climatic conditions to high flammability nor the sensitivity of fire to such conditions are universal, but rather depend on fuel (vegetation) structure, which in turn changes with productivity. Location An aridity/productivity gradient on the Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin). Methods We defined 13 regions distributed along an aridity gradient, which thus differ in productivity and fuel structure. We then assessed the changes in the temporal fire-climate relationship across regions. Specifically, for each region we estimated three variables: the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions (i.e. climatic conditions conducive to fire), the frequency of these flammable conditions and the area burnt under such conditions. These variables were then related to regional aridity and fuel structure indicators. Results In mediterranean ecosystems, the aridity level for switching to flammable conditions increased along the aridity gradient. Differences in fire activity between regions were not explained by the frequency of flammable conditions but by the sensitivity of fire to such conditions, which was higher in wetter and more productive regions. Main conclusions Under mediterranean climatic conditions, fuel structure is more relevant in driving fire activity than the frequency of climatic conditions conducive to fire. At a global scale, fuel also drives the fire-climate relationship because it determines the climatic (aridity) threshold for switching to flammable conditions. Our results emphasize the role of landscape structure in shaping current and future fire-climate relationships at a regional scale, and suggest that future changes in the fire regime (i.e. under global warming) might be different from what it is predicted by climate alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim The relative importance of current climate and past historical legacies is hotly debated. Here, we assess their role in determining the global distribution and diversity patterns of palms (Arecaceae), a widespread, species-rich group of keystone ecological importance in tropical ecosystems. Location Global. Methods We assembled country-level species lists world-wide and compiled associated data on potential contemporary environmental drivers (current climate, habitat heterogeneity, area, and insularity), Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and major biogeographic regions to evaluate to what extent the global distribution and species richness patterns in palms reflect Quaternary climatic oscillations or regional effects reflecting pre-Quaternary legacies. We also assessed for the first time if historical legacies differ between continents and islands, providing novel insights into determinants of insular species richness. Results Palm species richness was significantly affected by Quaternary climate changes and further differed between biogeographic regions even when both current environmental conditions and Quaternary climate changes were accounted for. In contrast, global limits to the distribution of the palm family were best explained by current temperature while biogeographic regional differences were unimportant and Quaternary climate change caused only a small constraint. Historical legacies were weak on islands, with only a small regional effect and no effect of Quaternary climate changes. Main conclusions Strong historical legacies supplement current environment as determinants of palm species richness. These primarily comprise pre-Quaternary historical effects, reflected in low African species richness (possibly linked to pre-Quaternary extinctions) and outstandingly high Neotropical and Indomalayan palm species richness (possibly linked to these regions' long-term climatic suitability for palms). In contrast to species richness, the global distribution of the family range is largely in equilibrium with current climate. The small historical effects on islands are consistent with climatic buffering from their oceanic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humid tropical alpine environments are crucial ecosystems that sustain biodiversity, biological processes, carbon storage and surface water provision. They are identified as one of the terrestrial ecosystems most vulnerable to global environmental change. Despite their vulnerability, and the importance for regional biodiversity conservation and socio-economic development, they are among the least studied and described ecosystems in the world. This paper reviews the state of knowledge about tropical alpine environments, and provides an integrated assessment of the potential threats of global climate change on the major ecosystem processes. Humid tropical alpine regions occur between the upper forest line and the perennial snow border in the upper regions of the Andes, the Afroalpine belt and Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Climate change will displace ecosystem boundaries and strongly reduce the total area of tropical alpine regions. Displacement and increased isolation of the remaining patches will induce species extinction and biodiversity loss. Drier and warmer soil conditions will cause a faster organic carbon turnover, decreasing the below-ground organic carbon storage. Since most of the organic carbon is currently stored in the soils, it is unlikely that an increase in above-ground biomass will be able to offset soil carbon loss at an ecosystem level. Therefore a net release of carbon to the atmosphere is expected. Changes in precipitation patterns, increased evapotranspiration and alterations of the soil properties will have a major impact on water supply. Many regions are in danger of a significantly reduced or less reliable stream flow. The magnitude and even the trend of most of these effects depend strongly on local climatic, hydrological and ecological conditions. The extreme spatial gradients in these conditions put the sustainability of ecosystem management at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim This study investigates inter-annual variability in burnt area in southern Africa and the extent to which climate is responsible for this variation. We compare data from long-term field sites across the region with remotely sensed burnt area data to test whether it is possible to develop a general model. Location Africa south of the equator. Methods Linear mixed effects models were used to determine the effect of rainfall, seasonality and fire weather in driving variation in fire extent between years, and to test whether the effect of these variables changes across the subcontinent and in areas more and less impacted by human activities. Results A simple model including rainfall and seasonality explained 40% of the variance in burnt area between years across 10 different protected areas on the subcontinent, but this model, when applied regionally, indicated that climate had less impact on year-to-year variation in burnt area than would be expected. It was possible to demonstrate that the relative importance of rainfall and seasonality changed as one moved from dry to wetter systems, but most noticeable was the reduction in climatically driven variability of fire outside protected areas. Inter-annual variability is associated with the occurrence of large fires, and large fires are only found in areas with low human impact. Main conclusions This research gives the first data-driven analysis of fire-climate interactions in southern Africa. The regional analysis shows that human impact on fire regimes is substantial and acts to limit the effect of climate in driving variation between years. This is in contrast to patterns in protected areas, where variation in accumulated rainfall and the length of the dry season influence the annual area burnt. Global models which assume strong links between fire and climate need to be re-assessed in systems with high human impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study is to determine the patterns of nitrogen (N) concentrations in leaf litter of forest trees as functions of climatic factors, annual average temperature (Temp, °C) and annual precipitation (Precip, dm) and of forest type (coniferous vs. broadleaf, deciduous vs. evergreen, Pinus, etc.). Location The review was conducted using data from studies across the Eurasian continent. Methods Leaf litter N concentration was compiled from 204 sets of published data (81 sets from coniferous and 123 from broadleaf forests in Eurasia). We explored the relationships between leaf litter N concentration and Temp and Precip by means of regression analysis. Leaf litter data from N2-fixing species were excluded from the analysis. Results Over the Eurasian continent, leaf litter N concentration increased with increasing Temp and Precip within functional groups such as conifers, broadleaf, deciduous, evergreen and the genus Pinus. There were highly significant linear relationships between ln(N) and Temp and Precip ( P < 0.001) for all available data combined, as well as for coniferous trees, broadleaf trees, deciduous trees, evergreen trees and Pinus separately. With both Temp and Precip as independent variables in multiple regression equations, the adjusted coefficient of determination ( ) was evidently higher than in simple regressions with either Temp or Precip as independent variable. Standardized regression coefficients showed that Temp had a larger impact than Precip on litter N concentration for all groups except evergreens. The impact of temperature was particularly strong for Pinus. Conclusions The relationship between leaf litter N concentration and temperature and precipitation can be well described with simple or multiple linear regression equations for forests over Eurasia. In the context of global warming, these regression equations are useful for a better understanding and modelling of the effects of geographical and climatic factors on leaf litter N at a regional and continental scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Amphibians exhibit unusually diverse reproductive modes, including a wide array of parental care strategies. The evolutionary drivers of this diversity, however, remain unclear. Here, we investigate three major factors that might predict interspecific variation in parental care strategies: climate, intrasexual selection and social environment. We hypothesize that some forms of care evolved to cope with harsh conditions, such as dry or unpredictable habitats. We contrast this prediction with the hypothesis that parental roles have co‐evolved with the social environment and mating systems. Location: Global. Major taxa studied: Frogs and toads (Amphibia: Anura). Time period: Extant taxa that represent c. 220 Myr of evolutionary history. Methods: Using geographical and behavioural data for 971 species of frogs and toads that represent 45 anuran families, we quantified the global distribution of four forms of parenting separately for males and females: nest building, nest and/or tadpole attendance, carrying and nourishment. We used phylogenetic comparative analyses to investigate whether climate, social environment and mating systems predicted interspecific variation in parental care. Results: Our results showed that climatic effects contribute to parental care diversity: in cool and humid climates the males provide offspring attendance, whereas in predictable temperatures endotrophy occurs, whereby the female provides all nutrients for the offspring until metamorphosis. In addition, we found other associations between mating systems and forms of parental care: uniparental clutch attendance by males is present in species with territorial defence, whereas cooperative nest building co‐occurs with sperm competition. The type of parental care is not associated with adult sex ratios. Main conclusions: No specific form of care is associated with hostile environments; in fact, some forms of care occur in beneficial conditions, whereas others are used independently from the climate. Instead, parenting diversity has co‐evolved closely with mating systems in frogs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate variability threatens to destabilize production in many ecosystems. Asynchronous species dynamics may buffer against such variability when a decrease in performance by some species is offset by an increase in performance of others. However, high climatic variability can eliminate species through stochastic extinctions or cause similar stress responses among species that reduce buffering. Local conditions, such as soil nutrients, can also alter production stability directly or by influencing asynchrony. We test these hypotheses using a globally distributed sampling experiment. Location: Grasslands in North America, Europe and Australia. Time period: Annual surveys over 5 year intervals occurring between 2007 and 2014. Major taxa studied: Herbaceous plants. Methods: We sampled annually the per species cover and aboveground community biomass [net primary productivity (NPP)], plus soil chemical properties, in 29 grasslands. We tested how soil conditions, combined with variability in precipitation and temperature, affect species richness, asynchrony and temporal stability of primary productivity. We used bivariate relationships and structural equation modelling to examine proximate and ultimate relationships. Results: Climate variability strongly predicted asynchrony, whereas NPP stability was more related to soil conditions. Species richness was structured by both climate variability and soils and, in turn, increased asynchrony. Variability in temperature and precipitation caused a unimodal asynchrony response, with asynchrony being lowest at low and high climate variability. Climate impacted stability indirectly, through its effect on asynchrony, with stability increasing at higher asynchrony owing to lower inter‐annual variability in NPP. Soil conditions had no detectable effect on asynchrony but increased stability by increasing the mean NPP, especially when soil organic matter was high. Main conclusions: We found globally consistent evidence that climate modulates species asynchrony but that the direct effect on stability is low relative to local soil conditions. Nonetheless, our observed unimodal responses to variability in temperature and precipitation suggest asynchrony thresholds, beyond which there are detectable destabilizing impacts of climate on primary productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Intraspecific trait variation (ITV) within natural plant communities can be large, influencing local ecological processes and dynamics. Here, we shed light on how ITV in vegetative and floral traits responds to large‐scale abiotic and biotic gradients (i.e., climate and species richness). Specifically, we tested whether associations of ITV with temperature, precipitation and species richness were consistent with any of four hypotheses relating to stress tolerance and competition. Furthermore, we estimated the degree of correlation between ITV in vegetative and floral traits and how they vary along the gradients. Location: Global. Time period: 1975–2016. Major taxa studied: Herbaceous and woody plants. Methods: We compiled a dataset of 18,401 measurements of the absolute extent of ITV (measured as the coefficient of variation) in nine vegetative and seven floral traits from 2,822 herbaceous and woody species at 2,372 locations. Results: Large‐scale associations between ITV and climate were trait specific and more prominent for vegetative traits, especially leaf morphology, than for floral traits. The ITV showed pronounced associations with climate, with lower ITV values in colder areas and higher values in drier areas. The associations of ITV with species richness were inconsistent across traits. Species‐specific associations across gradients were often idiosyncratic, and covariation in ITV was weaker between vegetative and floral traits than within the two trait groups. Main conclusions: Our results show that, depending on the traits considered, ITV either increased or decreased with climate stress and species richness, suggesting that both factors can constrain or enhance ITV, which might foster plant‐population persistence in stressful conditions. Given the species‐specific responses and covariation in ITV, associations can be hard to predict for traits and species not yet studied. We conclude that consideration of ITV can improve our understanding of how plants cope with stressful conditions and environmental change across spatial and biological scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate and disturbance alter forest dynamics, from individual trees to biomes and from years to millennia, leaving legacies that vary with local, meso‐ and macroscales. Motivated by recent insights in temperate forests, we argue that temporal and spatial extents equivalent to that of the underlying drivers are necessary to characterize forest dynamics across scales. We focus specifically on characterizing mesoscale forest dynamics because they bridge fine‐scale (local) processes and the continental scale (macrosystems) in ways that are highly relevant for climate change science and ecosystem management. We revisit ecological concepts related to spatial and temporal scales and discuss approaches to gain a better understanding of climate–forest dynamics across scales. Location: Eastern USA. Time period: Last century to present. Major taxa studied: Temperate broadleaf forests. Methods: We review regional literature of past tree mortality studies associated with climate to identify mesoscale climate‐driven disturbance events. Using a dynamic vegetation model, we then simulate how these forests respond to a typical climate‐driven disturbance. Results: By identifying compound disturbance events from both a literature review and simulation modelling, we find that synchronous patterns of drought‐driven mortality at mesoscales have been overlooked within these forests. Main conclusions: As ecologists, land managers and policy‐makers consider the intertwined drivers of climate and disturbance, a focus on spatio‐temporal scales equivalent to those of the drivers will provide insight into long‐term forest change, such as drought impacts. Spatially extensive studies should also have a long temporal scale to provide insight into pathways for forest change, evaluate predictions from dynamic forest models and inform development of global vegetation models. We recommend integrating data collected from spatially well‐replicated networks (e.g., archaeological, historical or palaeoecological data), consisting of centuries‐long, high‐resolution records, with models to characterize better the mesoscale response of forests to climate change in the past and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Catastrophic forest mortality due to more extreme rainfall deficits and higher temperatures under future climate scenarios has been predicted. The aim of this study is to explore the magnitude of historical drought‐induced tree mortality under pre‐warming conditions. Location: North‐eastern Australia. Time period: 1845–2017. Major taxa studied: Trees. Methods: Field survey, historical analysis and climate analysis. Results: We present evidence of 18%–30% tree mortality from recent droughts across three regions of north‐eastern Australia with rainfall deficits less severe than earlier historical droughts. The corrected temperature record represents modest warming at the stations with long records in the vicinity of the study areas. In terms of rainfall deficit the most severe drought on record occurred in the early 20th century, and historical evidence confirms that this drought and earlier droughts before the advent of pastoralism coincided with substantial tree mortality. Main conclusions: Dramatic declines in woody biomass in response to drought historically occurred more than once a century and are a natural phenomenon in semi‐arid Australia. The magnitude of drought‐induced tree mortality under natural climate fluctuations requires further investigation in other continents. Widespread drought‐induced tree mortality is not just a recent global change phenomenon and has been underestimated as a natural ecological process. However, even more severe forest die‐off events from more extreme hotter droughts are predicted if Earth's warming proceeds as currently projected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Nest microclimate is a critical determinant of the survival and development of embryonic and juvenile birds. While abiotic variables such as temperature, precipitation and elevation will influence the conditions experienced by offspring within the nest, parent birds may also exercise some control through nest design and the selection of construction material. The aim of this study is to determine whether avian nest construction and the composition of nest construction material is influenced by geographical variation in climate. In addition, this study aims to address whether the correlation between nest construction and elevation highlighted by other studies is independent of the association between elevation and climate, or if other unmeasured variables are at play. Location Australia Methods We measured the structural and thermal properties of 201 cup-shaped nests, from 36 Australian passerine species, and related these to temperature, precipitation and elevation. Results The rate of heat loss from avian nests is correlated with temperature, precipitation and elevation. Birds that construct nests in cool climates use well-insulating materials irrespective of precipitation, while birds in warm climates use poorly insulating materials when exposed to high rainfall but not when exposed to low rainfall. Main conclusions Local climate influences the construction of nests, through modification of the materials used, and therefore the rate of heat loss from the nest as a whole. In many climates, birds use well-insulating materials; however, birds breeding in warm and wet climates construct their nests with materials that have a higher thermal conductivity. Such nests are possibly less absorptive and able to dry out faster following a rain event, to restore the insulating function of the nest. These findings highlight the importance of studies over large geographical scales for understanding nest construction by birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim In times of biodiversity crisis, it is extremely important to understand diversity gradients. In particular, the study of the diversity of ecological functions is a key issue for the management of ecosystem integrity. Here we identify areas of low functional diversity of the native fish fauna in European drainage basins and we determine the relative importance of three underlying mechanisms: environmental filtering, geographic isolation and climatic history. Location The European continent. Methods Based on 14 morphological traits that are closely related to fish function (habitat and dietary niches), three independent functional diversity indices [functional richness (FR), functional evenness (FE), functional divergence (FD)] were calculated for 128 European drainage basins with a total of 230 fish species. The indices were standardized for species richness using null models. The patterns of the standardized indices are described and three potentially underlying mechanisms are tested using variance partitioning and multi-linear regression models. Results FR and FD were highest in eastern European drainage basins and in Great Britain and lowest in the Mediterranean. FE patterns were less pronounced. All observed patterns were mainly governed by geographic isolation and present environmental conditions. Within the environmental conditions, average annual temperature and precipitation were good predictors for functional diversity. The role of habitat diversity and size was negligible. Main conclusions Geographic isolation coupled with harsh environmental conditions such as extreme temperatures and low precipitation, as in Mediterranean regions, can lead to low FR and FD. This can be explained by extinction that could not be compensated by re-colonization and high speciation. Due to their high functional redundancy, communities in these areas might better withstand further species extinctions on a small scale. Over the short term, however, their often extremely low FR suggests a less flexible functioning that can hinder their ability to withstand today's rapid environmental and anthropogenic threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species richness has been observed to increase with productivity at large spatial scales, though the strength of this relationship varies among functional groups. In forests, canopy trees shade understorey plants, and for this reason we hypothesize that species richness of canopy trees will depend on macroclimate, while species richness of shorter growth forms will additionally be affected by shading from the canopy. In this study we test for differences in species richness–productivity relationships (SRPRs) among growth forms (canopy trees, shrubs, herbaceous species) in small forest plots. Location We analysed 231 plots ranging from 34.0° to 48.3° N latitude and from 75.0° to 124.2° W longitude in the United States. Methods We analysed data collected by the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program for plant species richness partitioned into different growth forms, in small plots. We used actual evapotranspiration as a macroclimatic estimate of regional productivity and calculated the area of light-blocking tissue in the immediate area surrounding plots for an estimate of the intensity of local shading. We estimated and compared SRPRs for different partitions of the species richness dataset using generalized linear models and we incorporated the possible indirect effects of shading using a structural equation model. Results Canopy tree species richness increased strongly with regional productivity, while local shading primarily explained the variation in herbaceous plant richness. Shrub species richness was related to both regional productivity and local shading. Main conclusions The relationship between total forest plant species richness and productivity at large scales belies strong effects of local interactions. Counter to the pattern for overall richness, we found that understorey herbaceous plant species richness does not respond to regional productivity gradients, and instead is strongly influenced by canopy density, while shrub species richness is under multivariate control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate change may cause loss of genetic diversity. Here we explore how a multidisciplinary approach can be used to infer effects of past climate change on species distribution and genetic diversity and also to predict loss of diversity due to future climate change. We use the arctic-alpine plant Salix herbacea L. as a model. Location Europe, Greenland and eastern North America. Methods We analysed 399 samples from 41 populations for amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) to identify current patterns of genetic structure and diversity and likely historical dispersal routes. Macrofossil records were compiled to infer past distribution, and species distribution models were used to predict the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and future distribution of climatically suitable areas. Results We found strong genetic differentiation between the populations from Europe/East Greenland and those from Canada/West Greenland, indicating a split probably predating the LGM. Much less differentiation was observed among the four genetic groups identified in Europe, and diversity was high in the Scandinavian as well as in southern alpine populations. Continuous distribution in Central Europe during the last glaciation was inferred based on the fossil records and distribution modelling. A 46–57% reduction in suitable areas was predicted in 2080 compared to present. However, mainly southern alpine populations may go extinct, causing a loss of about 5% of the genetic diversity in the species. Main conclusions From a continuous range in Central Europe during the last glaciation, northward colonization probably occurred as a broad front maintaining diversity as the climate warmed. This explains why potential extinction of southern populations by 2080 will cause a comparatively low loss of the genetic diversity in S. herbacea. For other species with different glacial histories, however, the expected climate-change induced regional extinction may cause a more severe loss of genetic diversity. We conclude that our multidisciplinary approach may be a useful tool for assessing impact of climate change on loss of genetic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim This first global quantification of the relationship between leaf traits and soil nutrient fertility reflects the trade-off between growth and nutrient conservation. The power of soils versus climate in predicting leaf trait values is assessed in bivariate and multivariate analyses and is compared with the distribution of growth forms (as a discrete classification of vegetation) across gradients of soil fertility and climate. Location All continents except for Antarctica. Methods Data on specific leaf area (SLA), leaf N concentration (LNC), leaf P concentration (LPC) and leaf N:P were collected for 474 species distributed across 99 sites (809 records), together with abiotic information from each study site. Individual and combined effects of soils and climate on leaf traits were quantified using maximum likelihood methods. Differences in occurrence of growth form across soil fertility and climate were determined by one-way ANOVA. Results There was a consistent increase in SLA, LNC and LPC with increasing soil fertility. SLA was related to proxies of N supply, LNC to both soil total N and P and LPC was only related to proxies of P supply. Soil nutrient measures explained more variance in leaf traits among sites than climate in bivariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that climate interacted with soil nutrients for SLA and area-based LNC. Mass-based LNC and LPC were determined mostly by soil fertility, but soil P was highly correlated to precipitation. Relationships of leaf traits to soil nutrients were stronger than those of growth form versus soil nutrients. In contrast, climate determined distribution of growth form more strongly than it did leaf traits. Main conclusions We provide the first global quantification of the trade-off between traits associated with growth and resource conservation ‘strategies’ in relation to soil fertility. Precipitation but not temperature affected this trade-off. Continuous leaf traits might be better predictors of plant responses to nutrient supply than growth form, but growth forms reflect important aspects of plant species distribution with climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To explore potential shifts in vegetation and fire regime in some dominant forest types in the north-eastern part of the Mediterranean basin under climate change. Location Two altitudinal gradients in the continental part of Greece. Methods We developed a forest gap dynamics simulator that provides feedback from the stand to its water balance and flammability status. The model is used to simulate vegetation dynamics in two mountainous areas, currently found under different aridity conditions. Two climatic change scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1 and B2) were applied to explore differences in the response of the established forest types. In addition we explicitly accounted for the role of fire, under both current and altered climate patterns. Results Fire was identified to play a significant role in low-altitude sites. Its significance increased with the severity of the climate change scenario. Elevational shifts of the dominant species were simulated for each site, while in some cases these changes were associated with a shorter fire cycle and a frequent resetting of processes of vegetation change. Main conclusions Our simulations suggest a greater vulnerability of mountainous Mediterranean drier areas regarding compositional alteration and flammability trends. Changes in vegetation could take place through both a discrete and synergistic realization of changes in the drought stress and fire frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim One of the most recognized ecological paradigms on earth is the increase in species richness from the poles towards the equator. Here we undertake a comprehensive survey of the latitudinal gradients of species richness (LGSR) of coastal cephalopod fauna in the western (WA) and eastern margins (EA) of the Atlantic Ocean, and test climate and non-climate theories to explain the variation in diversity. Location The coastal Atlantic Ocean. Methods The diversity and geographical ranges of coastal cephalopods were investigated by means of an exhaustive survey of the primary literature, reports and on-line data bases. In order to test the productivity, ambient energy and area hypotheses, we investigated the relationship between diversity and net primary production (NPP), sea surface temperature (SST; measure of solar energy input) and continental shelf area, respectively. Results LGSR of cephalopod molluscs are present at both Atlantic coasts, but are quite distinct from each other. Historical processes (rise of the Central American Isthmus, formation of ‘Mare Lago’ and glaciations) explained much of the shape and the zenith of LGSR. Contemporary climate and non-climate variables also each explained over 83% and 50% of the richness variation in WA and EA, respectively, and the best fitted models accounted for > 92% of the variance. By combining latitude with depth a strong Rapoport effect was observed in WA but not in EA. Main conclusions Besides the evolutionary history, we demonstrate that the contemporary environmental gradients (SST and NPP), shelf area and extent of coral habitat can predict many of the diversity patterns. The longitudinal difference in Rapoport's bathymetric rule is attributed to western fauna specialization to shallow coral reef habitats and greater ecological tolerance of eastern fauna to upwelling ecosystem dynamics. A combined approach of historical biogeography and species–area–energy theories was essential to fully understand broad-scale variation in cephalopod biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We examine issues of uncertainty regarding the spatial and temporal representativeness of phenological observations using a newly compiled Europe-wide data base of phenological observations for Betula species. Location Europe. Methods A new data base was compiled from national phenological observations covering 15 European countries, with the longest observational periods exceeding several decades for some sites. From this, the spatial and temporal representativeness of phenological observations were evaluated via statistical analysis. Results The results showed that there was a significant and irreducible uncertainty related to the use of data of a single station, which varied from 3 to 8 days depending on the station location. In more continental and northern climatic zones the uncertainty was lower, probably due to faster spring-time weather developments. In mild climatic conditions, the uncertainty of dates of the phenological phases registered by a single station exceeded 1 week. The considerable number of data allowed us to preliminarily estimate the features of some stations, marking them as ‘late’, ‘early’, ‘representative’ or ‘random’, depending on the dates reported by these sites and the corresponding regional means. Main conclusions The uncertainties discovered in single-site phenological observations are significant for virtually any potential application. Possible approaches for handling the uncertainty problem are station pre-averaging and spatial regularization of the data set, pre-selection (down-sampling) or changing the description of the phenomena from deterministic to probabilistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Our aims were: (1) to characterize the linear relationship between the proportion of woody dicotyledonous species with entire-margined leaves ( E) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from a southern temperate flora that still harbours many lineages that originated under warmer climates; (2) to compare this relationship with those developed from floras of different regions of the world; and (3) to contrast temperature predictions based on leaf margins of the native southern flora versus the naturalized alien flora, mostly of boreal origin. Location The temperate forest of southern South America (TFSA). Methods At each 1° latitudinal band, we estimated E based on species latitudinal ranges and MAT from both an isotherm map and a global temperature grid. We also calculated E from five local floras located between 40 and 43° S, and from the naturalized alien flora of Nahuel Huapi National Park in southern Argentina. Results We found a close relationship between E and MAT for the TFSA. Equations developed from floras of the Northern Hemisphere overestimated extant temperatures of this biome by 6–10 °C at both geographical and local spatial scales. On the other hand, MAT predictions from leaf margins of the alien flora were similar to the actual MAT. A published regression between E and MAT from tropical South America was remarkably similar to the one we estimated from the TFSA. This tropical equation predicted accurately the temperatures observed for this temperate biome based on leaf margins of the native flora. Main conclusions Despite massive plant extinction due to environmental cooling and biogeographical isolation during the Tertiary, leaf-margin analysis reveals that the flora of the TFSA still reflects its original development under the warmer conditions of western Gondwana and its past connections with low-latitude forest floras of tropical South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To compare the geographical distributions of two tick-borne pathogens vectored by different tick species, to examine the relative importance of climate, land cover and host density in structuring these distributions, and to assess the spatial variability of these environmental constraints across the species ranges. Location South-central and south-eastern North America. Methods Presence/absence data for two tick-borne pathogens, Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum, were obtained for 567 counties from a regional data base based on white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) serology. Environmental variables describing climate, land cover and deer density were calculated for these counties. Global logistic regression analysis was used to screen the environmental variables and select a parsimonious subset of predictors. Local analysis was carried out using geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore spatial variability in the parameters of the regression models. Cluster analysis was applied to the GWR output to identify zones with distinctive species–habitat relationships. Results Global habitat models for E. chaffeensis and A. phagocytophilum included temperature, humidity, precipitation and forest cover as explanatory variables. The E. chaffeensis model also included forest fragmentation, whereas the A. phagocytophilum model included deer density. Local analyses revealed that climate was the primary correlate of pathogen presence in the eastern portion of the study area, whereas forest cover and fragmentation constrained the western range boundaries. Habitat relationships for all variables were weak in and around the Mississippi Delta. Main conclusions Efforts to model pathogen and disease ranges, and to predict shifts in response to global change should consider future scenarios of land-cover change as well as climate change, and should address the possibility of spatial heterogeneity in species–habitat relationships. The methods presented here outline an approach for objectively delineating geographical zones with similar species–environment relationships, which can then be used to stratify landscapes for the purposes of further explanatory and predictive modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species can respond to global climate change by range shifts or by phenotypic adaptation. At the community level, range shifts lead to a turnover of species, i.e. community reassembly. In contrast, phenotypic adaptation allows species to persist in situ, conserving community composition. So far, community reassembly and adaptation have mostly been studied separately. In nature, however, both processes take place simultaneously. In migratory birds, climate change has been shown to result in both exchange of species and adaptation of migratory behaviour. The aim of our study is to predict the impact of global climate change on migratory bird communities and to assess the extent to which reassembly and adaptation may contribute to alterations. Location Europe. Methods We analysed the relationship between current climate and the proportion of migratory species across bird assemblages in Europe. The magnitude of community reassembly was measured using spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species. Adaptation was inferred from spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species that actually migrate at a specific site. These spatial relationships were used to make temporal predictions of changes in migratory species under global climate change. Results According to our models, increasing winter temperature is expected to lead to declines in the proportion of migratory species, whereas increasing spring temperature and decreasing spring precipitation may lead to increases. Changes in winter and spring temperature are expected to cause mainly adaptation in migratory activity, while changes in spring precipitation may result in both changes in the proportion of potentially migratory species and adaptation of migratory activity. Main conclusions Under current climate change forecasts, changes in the proportion of migratory species will be modest and the communities of migratory birds in Europe are projected to be altered through adaptation of migratory activity rather than through exchange of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To estimate the effects of full-glacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate upon leaf area index (LAI), using both global vegetation models and palaeoecological data. Prior simulations indicate lowered LAIs at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), but this is the first attempt to corroborate predictions against observations. Location Eastern North America and eastern Beringia. Methods Using a dense surface pollen data set and remotely sensed LAIs from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, we evaluate the ability of analogue-based techniques to reconstruct modern LAIs from pollen data. We then apply analogue techniques to LGM pollen records, calculate the ratio of LGM to modern LAIs (RLAI) and compare reconstructed RLAIs to RLAIs simulated by BIOME4. Sensitivity experiments with BIOME4 distinguish the effects of CO2 and climate on glacial LAIs. Results Modern LAIs are skilfully predicted ( r2= 0.83). Data and BIOME4 indicate that LAIs at the LGM were up to 12% lower than modern values in eastern North America and 60–94% lower in Beringia. In eastern North America, LGM climates partially counteracted CO2-driven decreases in LAI, while in Beringia both contributed to lowered LAIs. Main conclusions In both regions climate is the primary driver of LGM LAIs. The decline in eastern North America LAIs is smaller than previously reported, so regional vegetation feedbacks to LGM climate may have been less significant than previously supposed. CO2 exerts both physiological and community effects upon LAI, by regulating resource availability for leaf production and by influencing the competitive balance among species and hence the composition and structure of plant communities. Pollen-based reconstructions using analogue methods do not incorporate the physiological effect and so are upper estimates of full-glacial LAIs. BIOME4 sensitivity experiments indicate that the community and physiological effects together caused 10% to 20% decrease in LAIs at the LGM, so simulated RLAIs that are 80–100% of reconstructed RLAIs are regarded as consistent with data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The magnitude of predicted range shifts during climate change is likely to be different for species living in mountainous environments compared with those living in flatland environments. The southern edges of ranges in mountain species may not shift northwards during warming as populations instead migrate up available elevational gradients; overall latitudinal range appears therefore to expand. In contrast, flatland species should shift range centroids northwards but not expand or contract their latitudinal range extent. These hypotheses were tested utilizing Late Pleistocene and modern occurrence data. Location North America. Methods The location and elevation of modern and Late Pleistocene species occurrences were collected from data bases for 26 species living in mountain or flatland environments. Regressions of elevation change over latitude, and southern and northern range edges were calculated for each species for modern and fossil data sets. A combination of regressions andanovas were used to test whether flatland species shift range edges and latitudinal extents more than mountain species do. Results Flatland species had significantly larger northward shifts at southern range edges than did mountain-dwelling species from the Late Pleistocene to the present. There was also a significant negative correlation between the amount of change in the latitude of the southern edge of the range and the amount of elevational shifting from the Late Pleistocene to the present. Although significant, only c. 25% of the variance could be explained by this relationship. In addition, there was a weak indication that overall range expansion was less in flatland-dwelling than in mountain-dwelling species. Main conclusions The approach used here was to examine past species’ range responses to warming that occurred after the last ice ages as a means to better predict potential future responses to continued warming. The results confirm predictions of differential southern edge and overall range shifts for species occupying mountain and flatland regions in North America. The findings may be broadly applicable in other regions, thus allowing better modelling of future range and distribution related responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but, so far, hardly demonstrated in the field. Here, we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change. Location Europe. Methods We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change. Results Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found. Main conclusions This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We explored the importance of climate and land cover in bird species distribution models on multiple spatial scales. In particular, we tested whether the integration of land cover data improves the performance of pure bioclimatic models. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods The data of the bird atlas survey carried out in 1986–89 using a 10 × 10 km uniform grid system in Finland were employed in the analyses. Land cover and climatic variables were compiled using the same grid system. The dependent and explanatory variables were resampled to 20-km, 40-km and 80-km resolutions. Generalized additive models (GAM) were constructed for each of the 88 land bird species studied in order to estimate the probability of occurrence as a function of (1) climate and (2) climate and land cover variables. Model accuracy was measured by a cross-validation approach using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Results In general, the accuracies of the 88 bird–climate models were good at all studied resolutions. However, the inclusion of land cover increased the performance of 79 and 78 of the 88 bioclimatic models at 10-km and 20-km resolutions, respectively. There was no significant improvement at the 40-km resolution. In contrast to the finer resolutions, the inclusion of land cover variables decreased the modelling accuracy at 80km resolution. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the determinants of bird species distributions are hierarchically structured: climatic variables are large-scale determinants, followed by land cover at finer resolutions. The majority of the land bird species in Finland are rather clearly correlated with climate, and bioclimate envelope models can provide useful tools for identifying the relationships between these species and the environment at resolutions ranging from 10 km to 80 km. However, the notable contribution of land cover to the accuracy of bioclimatic models at 10–20-km resolutions indicates that the integration of climate and land cover information can improve our understanding and model predictions of biogeographical patterns under global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Hantaviruses are zoonotic, aetiological agents maintained by rodents of the family Muridae. The occurrence of hantavirus in rodent hosts has been correlated to a number of climatic and environmental factors, including landscape structure. To date, most of these correlative studies have been conducted at moderate to fine spatial resolution. Our aim is to determine whether land cover classes defined at a mapping resolution of 1 km2 are associated with rodents with antibodies to hantavirus in Paraguay. Location The Republic of Paraguay. Methods A total of 362 rodents from 10 species known to host hantaviruses were tested for the presence of hantavirus antibodies, resulting in 27 seropositive individuals. This data base was then combined with a map of six land cover types derived from coarse resolution remote sensing data to create a series of contingency tables, which were used to relate serostatus to land cover type using nonparametric tests of proportions and qualitative comparison of observed and expected values. Results There was a significant difference in habitat association between seropositive and seronegative rodents when species were pooled. Seropositive rodents were found with disproportionately high frequency in areas where human disturbance in the form of intensive and mosaic agricultural landscapes was present. Main conclusions Human-disturbed land cover classes have a detectable relationship to the hantavirus serostatus of host population rodents when observed at coarse spatial resolutions. Although coarse-grained analysis does not lead to any conclusions as to why agricultural land cover is more likely to harbour seropositive rodents, the relationship between them could form the basis for a monitoring system designed to relate land cover change to potential viral outbreaks in rodents and humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Over the next 100 years, human-driven climate change and resulting changes in species occurrences will have global impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human health. Here we examine how climate change may affect the occurrences of tick species in Africa and alter the suitability of habitat outside Africa for African ticks. Location Africa and the world. Methods We predicted continental and global changes in habitat suitability for each of 73 African tick species, using multiple regression models in different climate change scenarios that cover a wide range of uncertainty. Results Global habitat suitability improves for nearly all tick species under each of a representative range of eight climate change scenarios. Depending on the scenario, African tick species experience an average increase in global habitat suitability of between 1 million and 9 million square kilometres between 1990 and 2100. Main conclusions The potential for successful translocations of ticks and their pathogens from Africa to the rest of the world is likely to increase over the next 100 years. Although the general trend is one of range expansion, there are winners and losers among tick species in each scenario, suggesting that tick community composition will be disrupted substantially by climate change. If this is also typical of other invertebrates, then climate change will disrupt not only the geographic location of communities but also their structure. Changes in tick communities are also likely to influence tick-borne pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim In response to recent climate warming, numerous studies have reported an earlier onset of spring and, to a lesser degree, a later onset of autumn, both determined from phenological observations. Here, we examine whether these reported changes have affected the synchronization of events on a regional level by examining temporal and spatial variability in phenology. In particular, we study whether years with earlier springs are associated with an altered spatial variability in phenology. Location Germany and the United Kingdom. Methods Plant phenological observations of 35 different phases (events such as flowering and leafing) collected by the German Weather Service (1951–2002) and butterfly phenological records of 29 species collected by the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (1976–2003) are used. In these long-term records, we examine the temporal (year-to-year) variability and the spatial (geographic or between site) variability with particular emphasis on how they vary with time of the year and with earliness or lateness of the phase. Results Early phenological events (i.e. spring) are more variable than later events, both in time and in space, although the pattern is clearer for plants than for butterflies. Confirming previous results, we find a clear relationship between the mean date of spring and summer phases and the degree to which they have become earlier. The spatial variability of spring events is greater in warmer years that have faster plant development. However, late spring and summer events do not show a consistent relationship. Autumn events are somewhat more spatially variable in years characterized by later seasons. Main conclusions This is the first examination of spatial variability of plant and animal phenological events at a multinational scale. Earlier spring events are likely to be associated with increased spatial variability in plants, although this is unlikely to also be true for summer events. If species experience differential changes in geographic variation this may disrupt interactions among them, e.g. in food webs. On the other hand, these may offer advantages for mobile species. Further research on linked species is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate is an important determinant of species distributions. We assess different aspects of risk arising from future climate change by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of future climatic conditions compared with the recent past. Location Europe. Methods A 10′ × 10′ resolution gridded data set of five climate variables was used to calculate expected changes to the area, distance and direction of 1931–60 climatic conditions under the HadCM3 climate model for four future climate scenarios based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions (SRES scenarios). Three levels of tolerance ranges determined the thresholds for which future conditions are considered analogous to 1931–60 (pre-warming) conditions. Results For many parts of Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous climate conditions will be smaller and further away in the future than they are now. For any location in Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous mean annual temperature conditions will, on average, be reduced between 23.7% (B1 scenario) and 49.7% (A1FI scenario) by 2100 when assuming a medium tolerance range. The mean distance to these areas will, on average, increase between 272 km (B1) and 645 km (A1FI). These changes are more pronounced for temperature than for water availability variables and also for narrow tolerance ranges compared to wide tolerance ranges. Using a combined measure of both temperature and precipitation variables, areas with prewarming analogous conditions are predicted to be in a more northeasterly direction in the future, but there are considerable regional differences within Europe. Main conclusions The results suggest that, for some parts of Europe, the loss of area with any suitable climatic conditions represents the greatest risk to biodiversity, but in other regions the distances that species may have to move to reach suitable climatic conditions may be a greater problem. Quantifying the distance and direction in analyses of change of climatically suitable areas can add additional information for climate change risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To understand the impact of glacial refugia and migration pathways on the modern genetic diversity of Pinus sylvestris. Location The study was carried out throughout Europe. Methods An extended set of data of pollen and macrofossil remains was used to locate the glacial refugia and reconstruct the migrating routes of P. sylvestris throughout Europe. A vegetation model was used to simulate the extent of the potential refugia during the last glacial period. At the same time a genetic survey was carried out on this species. Results The simulated distribution of P. sylvestris during the last glacial period is coherent with the observed fossil data, which showed a patchy distribution of the refugia between c. 40° N and 50° N. Several migrational fronts were detected within the Iberian and the Italian peninsulas, and outside the Hungarian plain and around the Alps. The modern mitochondrial DNA depicted three different haplotypes for P. sylvestris. Two distinct haplotypes were restricted to northern Spain and Italy, and the third haplotype dominated most of the present-day remaining distribution range of P. sylvestris in Europe. Main conclusions During the last glacial period P. sylvestris was constrained under severe climatic conditions to survive in scattered and restricted refugial areas. Combining palaeoenvironmental data, vegetation modelling and the genetic data, we have shown that the long-term isolation in the glacial refugia and the migrational process during the Holocene have played a major role in shaping the modern genetic diversity of P. sylvestris in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To investigate the major paradigms of intense isolation and little anthropogenic influence around Antarctica and to examine the timings and scales of the modification of the southern polar biota. Location Antarctica and surrounding regions. Methods First, mechanisms of and evidence for long-term isolation are reviewed. These include continental drift, the development of a surrounding deep-water channel and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). They also include levels of endemism, richness and distinctiveness of assemblages. Secondly, evidence for past and modern opportunities for species transport are investigated. Comparative levels of alien establishments are also examined around the Southern Ocean. Discussion On a Cenozoic time-scale, it is clear that Gondwana's fragmentation led to increasing geographical isolation of Antarctica and the initiation of the ACC, which restricted biota exchange to low levels while still permitting some movement of biota. On a shorter Quaternary time-scale, the continental ice-sheet, influenced by solar (Milankovitch) cycles, has expanded and contracted periodically, covering and exposing terrestrial and continental shelf habitats. There were probably refugia for organisms during each glacial maxima. It is also likely that new taxa were introduced into Antarctica during cycles of ice sheet and oceanic front movement. The current situation (a glacial minimum) is not ‘normal’; full interglacials represent only 10% of the last 430 ka. On short (ecological) time-scales, many natural dispersal processes (airborne, oceanic eddy, rafting and hitch-hiking on migrants) enable the passage of biota to and from Antarctica. In recent years, humans have become influential both directly by transporting organisms and indirectly by increasing survival and establishment prospects via climate change. Main conclusions Patterns of endemism and alien establishment are very different across taxa, land and sea, and north vs. south of the Polar Frontal Zone. Establishment conditions, as much as transport, are important in limiting alien establishment. Three time-scales emerge as important in the modification of Antarctica's biota. The natural ‘interglacial’ process of reinvasion of Antarctica is being influenced strongly by humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Quantification of the effects and interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors, including climate, canopy structure, land use and management conditions, on vegetation burning. The study of these relationships is fundamental to predict regional fire patterns and develop sound management and regulation policies for biomass burning at national and global levels. Location Southern South America, including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia and Chile. Methods Based on National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration–Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA–AVHRR) satellite images, we identified fires in southern South America with a daily frequency for two periods (1999/2000 and 2000/01) using a contextual fire detection algorithm and integrating the density of these fires at a monthly scale into a 0.5 × 0.5° grid. We combined vegetation and climate global databases and land use information from national census data to explore the relationship of these factors with fires across the region. Results The whole study region had a mean fire density of 0.10 and 0.05 fires km−2 year−1 in 1999/2000 and 2000/01, respectively, with extreme values as high as 1.37 in fires km−2 year−1 in Para State, Brazil. Water deficit estimates, derived from a climatic water balance, showed the better correlation with fire density ( r = 0.28; P < 0.001; n = 4467), interacting strongly with land use. In areas with low agricultural use fire density increased with water deficit, whereas in highly agricultural areas this relationship was not observed. Agriculture significantly reduced fire density in prairies and savannas but increased its frequency in rain forests. Main conclusions These results suggest that agriculture prevents biomass burning in semiarid areas but enhances it in humid environments, where biomass accumulates at faster rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To produce a statistical stratification of the European environment, suitable for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent, and to provide strata for modelling exercises and reporting. Location A ‘Greater European Window’ with the following boundaries: 11° W, 32° E, 34° N, 72° N. Methods Twenty of the most relevant available environmental variables were selected, based on experience from previous studies. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to explain 88% of the variation into three dimensions, which were subsequently clustered using an ISODATA clustering routine. The mean first principal component values of the classification variables were used to aggregate the strata into Environmental Zones and to provide a basis for consistent nomenclature. Results The Environmental Stratification of Europe (EnS) consists of 84 strata, which have been aggregated into 13 Environmental Zones. The stratification has a 1 km2 resolution. Aggregations of the strata have been compared to other European classifications using the Kappa statistic, and show ‘good’ comparisons. The individual strata have been described using data from available environmental databases. The EnS is available for noncommercial use by applying to the corresponding author. Main conclusions The Environmental Stratification of Europe has been constructed using tried and tested statistical procedures. It forms an appropriate stratification for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent and for the provision of strata for modelling exercises and reporting at the European scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: The aims were (1) to assess the species richness and structure of phytophagous Hemiptera communities along a latitudinal gradient, (2) to identify the importance of rare species in structuring these patterns, and (3) to hypothesize about how phytophagous Hemiptera communities may respond to future climate change. Location: East coast of Australia. Methods:Four latitudes within the 1150 km coastal distribution of Acacia falcate were selected. The insect assemblage on the host plant Acacia falcate was sampled seasonally over two years. Congeneric plant species were also sampled at the sites. Results: Ninety-eight species of phytophagous Hemiptera were collected from A. falcate . Total species richness was significantly lower at the most temperate latitude compared to the three more tropical latitudes. We classified species into four climate change response groups depending on their latitudinal range and apparent host specificity. Pair wise comparisons between groups showed that the cosmopolitan, generalist feeder and specialists had a similar community structure to each other, but the climate generalists had a significantly different structure. Fifty-seven species were identified as rare. Most of these rare species were phloem hoppers and their removal from the dataset led to changes in the proportional representation of all guilds in two groups: the specialist and generalist feeders. Main conclusions: We found no directional increase in phytophagous Hemiptera species richness. This indicates that, at least in the short term, species richness patterns of these communities may be similar to that found today. As the climate continues to change, however, we might expect some increases in species richness at the more temperate latitudes as species migrate in response to shifting climate zones. In the longer term, more substantial changes in community composition will be expected because the rare species, which comprise a large fraction of these communities, will be vulnerable to both direct climatic changes, and indirect effects via changes to their host's distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conservation of biological and genetic diversity is a major goal of reserve systems at local, regional, and national levels. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources suggests a 12% threshold (area basis) for adequate protection of biological and genetic diversity of a plant community. However, thresholds based on area may protect only a small portion of the total diversity if the locations are chosen without regard to the variation within the community. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to apply a coarse-filter approach for identifying gaps in the current reserve system of thePsuedotsuga menziesii(Douglas-fir) forest type group based on current climatic conditions and a global climate change scenario.Western United States.We used an ecological envelope approach that was based on seven bioclimatic factors, two topographic factors, and two edaphic factors. Multivariate factor analysis was then used to reduce the envelope to two dimensions. The relative density of habitat and protected areas were identified in each part of the envelope based on the current climate and potential future climate. We used this information to identify gaps in the reserve system.Although the protected areas occurred in all parts of the envelope, most existed in colder and drier areas. This was true for both the current climate and potential future climate.To protect more of the ecological envelope, future conservation efforts would be most effective in western Oregon, north-western Washington, and north-western California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bioclimate envelope models (BEM) treat species as if they were acting independently of their biotic environment, thus neglecting potential effects of predation, competition or mutualisms on range dynamics. Researchers argue accordingly that interactions between species may shape their spatial distributions on fine geographical scales, but are of minor importance at coarse scales, which are the main focus of BEM. However biotic interactions, not climate, are commonly considered the principal determinants of low-latitude range limits. Moreover, ecological research on biological invasions has broadly documented that biotic interactions affect species' performance throughout their established ranges.

To identify the effect of climate change on selected plant species representative of the main vegetation types in the Faroe Islands. Due to a possible weakening of the North Atlantic Current, it is difficult to predict whether the climate in the Faroe Islands will be warmer or colder as a result of global warming. Therefore, two scenarios are proposed. The first scenario assumes an increase in summer and winter temperature of 2 °C, and the second a decrease in summer and winter temperature of 2 °C. Temperate, low alpine and alpine areas in the northern and central part of the Faroe Islands. The responses of 12 different plant species in the Faroe Islands were tested against measured soil temperature, expressed as Tmin, Tmax, snow cover and growing degree days (GDD), using generalised linear modelling (GLM). The tolerance to changes in winter soil temperature (0.3–0.8 °C) was found to be lower than the tolerance to changing summer soil temperature (0.7–1.0 °C), and in both cases lower than the predicted climate changes. The species most affected by a warming scenario are those that are found with a limited distribution restricted to the uppermost parts of the mountains, especially Salix herbacea, Racomitrium fasciculare, and Bistorta vivipara. For other species, the effect will mainly be a general upward migration. The most vulnerable species are those with a low tolerance, especially Calluna vulgaris, and also Empetrum nigrum, and Nardus stricta. If the climate in the Faroe Islands should become colder, the most vulnerable species are those at low altitudes. A significantly lower temperature would be expected to produce a serious reduction in the extent of Vaccinium myrtillus and Galium saxatilis. Species like Empetrum nigrum, Nardus stricta, and Calluna vulgaris may also be vulnerable. In any case, these species can be expected to migrate downwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The aim of this study was to examine the effects of various biological factors such as body mass, trophic level, climate and geography on census area in terrestrial mammals. We also examine the effects of census area on the population density–body mass relationship. The geographic areas covered in this study include most major terrestrial biomes including taïga, desert, savanna, grassland, tropical dry forest, temperate dry forest, tropical rain forest and temperate rain forest. An extensive literature search was conducted and we compiled data on census area and body mass from 377 mammalian populations and 59 communities. Statistical analyses include linear regression, Kruskal–Wallis analysis of variance, LOWESS, and multiple regression. Overall, the regression between log census area (A) and log body mass (M) yielded a slope of 0.710, which did not differ significantly from 0.75, but it was significantly different from 1.0. The analyses also showed that the log A–log M relationship is constrained within a well-defined space in a similar fashion to the home range–body mass relationship. When mammals were separated into trophic groups, regression lines differed significantly in their intercepts, but not in slopes. At the community level, the census area was particularly affected by the population with the largest body mass within the community. Both the number of species and number of taxa encompassed by the community were found to be correlated positively with log A (r = 0.26, P = 0.0464 and r = 0.27, P = 0.0398, respectively). Sampling of mammalian species is not usually random. Not only is census area significantly associated with the technique used to sample a given species, but it is also influenced by biological factors that have been shown previously to influence population density. Striking similarities were found between the census area–body mass relationship and the home range–body mass... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A photograph titled "Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research," by W. Cramer is presented.