Search

Broad-scale spatial patterns of species richness are very strongly correlated with climatic variables. If there is a causal link, i.e. if climate directly or indirectly determines patterns of richness, then when the climatic variables change, richness should change in the manner that spatial correlations between richness and climate would predict. The present study tests this prediction using seasonal changes in climatic variables and bird richness. We used a grid of equal area quadrats (37 000 km2) covering North and Central America as far south as Nicaragua. Summer and winter bird distribution data were drawn from monographs and field guides. Climatic data came from published sources. We also used remotely sensed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index — a measure of greenness). Bird species richness changes temporally (between summer and winter) in a manner that is close to, but statistically distinguishable from, the change one would predict from models relating the spatial variation in richness at a single time to climatic variables. If one further takes into account the seasonal changes in NDVI and within-season variability of temperature and precipitation, then winter and summer richness follow congruent, statistically indistinguishable patterns. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation cover directly or indirectly influence patterns of bird species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humid tropical alpine environments are crucial ecosystems that sustain biodiversity, biological processes, carbon storage and surface water provision. They are identified as one of the terrestrial ecosystems most vulnerable to global environmental change. Despite their vulnerability, and the importance for regional biodiversity conservation and socio-economic development, they are among the least studied and described ecosystems in the world. This paper reviews the state of knowledge about tropical alpine environments, and provides an integrated assessment of the potential threats of global climate change on the major ecosystem processes. Humid tropical alpine regions occur between the upper forest line and the perennial snow border in the upper regions of the Andes, the Afroalpine belt and Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Climate change will displace ecosystem boundaries and strongly reduce the total area of tropical alpine regions. Displacement and increased isolation of the remaining patches will induce species extinction and biodiversity loss. Drier and warmer soil conditions will cause a faster organic carbon turnover, decreasing the below-ground organic carbon storage. Since most of the organic carbon is currently stored in the soils, it is unlikely that an increase in above-ground biomass will be able to offset soil carbon loss at an ecosystem level. Therefore a net release of carbon to the atmosphere is expected. Changes in precipitation patterns, increased evapotranspiration and alterations of the soil properties will have a major impact on water supply. Many regions are in danger of a significantly reduced or less reliable stream flow. The magnitude and even the trend of most of these effects depend strongly on local climatic, hydrological and ecological conditions. The extreme spatial gradients in these conditions put the sustainability of ecosystem management at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate change has the potential to have an impact on the distribution of ticks and tick-borne diseases. This paper identifies the changes in climate suitability for the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus in the Americas by analysing climate data for the period 1950–99. Location The model was applied to the American continent. Methods A model based on Environmental Niche Modelling was used on a gridded (0.5°) long-term (1950–99) climate data set. A map of the core range of the species was constructed, and areas where habitat suitability (HS) changes suddenly over short time periods were identified as regions of high sensitivity. Tendency of climate in the continent was evaluated and scenarios constructed for 2025 and 2050. Results Regions of high sensitivity included the southern USA, Mexico and western and central Argentina. Analysis of climate variables in these regions identified water vapour pressure deficit and evaporation as underlying the high sensitivity of habitat suitability in the USA and Mexico, and showed that episodes of high variability are linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Projections of the tendency of HS as observed for the 1950–99 period point to an increase in this value in parts of the southern USA and in central Argentina, a finding that can be attributed to the progressive increase in minimum and yearly averaged temperatures. Conclusions Short-term changes in climate may drive the system into unstable situations with sudden changes in habitat suitability for the target tick in specific zones of the Americas. Results suggest an increased abiotic (climate) suitability for R. microplus in areas whose habitat is currently unsuitable for this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]