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ABSTRACT Aim This paper describes a set of integrative scenarios developed in the ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) project. The ultimate aim of ALARM was to develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks to biodiversity and to evaluate mitigation options. Scenarios provide a tool for exploring such risks and the policy options to mitigate them; therefore they play a central role within the ALARM project. Methods Three integrative scenarios (liberalization, business as might be usual, sustainability) were developed and illustrated using the econometric model described in a subsequent paper. They are contextualized with projections from climate models and provide the input for model-based assessments of biodiversity trends. Additionally, three shock scenarios were developed (Gulf Stream collapse, peak oil, pandemic) to demonstrate the limits of linear extrapolation. As these extend beyond model capabilities, they are discussed semi-quantitatively based on modelling insights. Results Although the policy impacts on biodiversity are different for different pressures, biomes and species groups, some general trends could be identified. An extension of current EU policies will act as a brake on current trends by slowing down the loss of biodiversity in many cases and in most biomes, but it will be capable of neither halting nor of reversing the loss. Liberalization has the effect of accelerating biodiversity loss across the board, with few exceptions. A coherent sustainability scenario is clearly the most effective at preserving biodiversity, but the variant tested here still does not halt losses in all cases. Main conclusions Current EU policies for protecting biodiversity appear to be insufficient to reverse ongoing losses. Coherent sustainability strategies are effective at conserving biodiversity, but in order to assess losses and then reverse them, measures would need to be introduced that extend beyond the steps tested in the ALARM sustainability scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim One of the main gaps in the assessment of biodiversity is the lack of a unified framework for measuring its taxonomic and functional facets and for unveiling the underlying patterns. Location Europe, 25 large river basins. Methods Here, we develop a decomposition of functional β-diversity, i.e. the dissimilarity in functional composition between communities, into a functional turnover and a functional nestedness-resultant component. Results We found that functional β-diversity was lower than taxonomic β-diversity. This difference was driven by a lower functional turnover compared with taxonomic turnover while the nestedness-resultant component was similar for taxonomic and functional β-diversity. Main conclusions Fish faunas with different species tend to share the same functional attributes. The framework presented in this paper will help to analyse biogeographical patterns as well as to measure the impact of human activities on the functional facets of biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper identifies socio-economic driving forces of biodiversity change and analyses their political and economic dynamics by modelling socio-economic parts of three scenario storylines developed for the ALARM (assessing large-scale risks for biodiversity with tested methods) project. In the BAMBU (business-as-might-be-usual) scenario policy decisions already made in the European Union (EU) are implemented and enforced, but no additional measures are introduced. The GRAS (growth applied strategy) scenario describes a future world orientated towards economic growth and complete deregulation. And finally, SEDG (sustainable European development goal) is a normative scenario focusing on the achievement of sustainable development. Methods The GINFORS (global inter-industry forecasting system) model is applied to quantify the effects of different sets of policy measures representing the three scenarios. It allows investigation of the inter-relations between socio-economic driving forces and the state of the environment. Results The presented results for the 25 EU countries focus on the following variables: unemployment, material extraction, energy supply and CO2 emissions. The lowest amount of unemployment is in the SEDG scenario, where it steadily decreases from 2005 to 2020. In BAMBU it falls to a level that is also below that of 2005. In GRAS, the number of unemployed people in 2020 is clearly over the value of 2005. The development of total material extraction from 2005 to 2020 is nearly stable in BAMBU, while it clearly increases in GRAS. Only in SEDG is there a reduction in resource use. None of the scenarios achieves a substantial reduction in energy use. However, the development of CO2 emissions shows a decoupling from energy supply. For BAMBU there is a slight decline in CO2 emissions over time, for GRAS they increase but with a slightly smaller growth rate than energy supply. In SEDG the emissions are reduced. The decoupling trends can be explained by a shift to more renewable energy sources in all scenarios, with the highest share in SEDG. Main conclusions The results indicate that a growth-oriented policy design, such as presented in the GRAS scenario, is not compatible with the conservation of biodiversity. Only in the SEDG scenario do the policy measures support the idea of a sustainable development, but in some respects they are still not ambitious enough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we compare species description rates to predict the numbers of undescribed species. These data are used to discuss the merits of various attempts to estimate species richness in the oceans. European marine areas. Predictions of how many species may exist on Earth have lacked an inventory of how many have been described, except for a few small taxa. The ocean is a good place to start an inventory because it includes all but one of the phyla and most classes of life on Earth. The European Register of Marine Species (ERMS) was compiled by taxonomic experts, covered all marine taxa, and accounted for synonyms. Reflecting taxonomic history, Europe's species are the best described in the world. ERMS listed 29,713 species of animals, plants and protists, but excluded bacteria and viruses. An estimated 6500 described species were not included. The best prediction of the number of species remaining to be described was 5613. Plots of years when species were first described showed no decrease in the rate of description for any taxa except birds, mammals and krill. If taxonomic effort has increased, whether due to more resources globally or greater efficiencies of productivity, then description rates per unit effort may be declining and the number of undescribed species may be lower than predicted. However, apart from reduced rates of description during the World Wars, there were no changes in description rates that could be easily attributed to such factors. There are about 36,000 species described from European seas, and we predict that 40,000 to 48,000 may exist. This comprises 15% of the estimated 230,000 described marine species. However, this area is well known compared with other seas and the proportion of species yet to be discovered will be higher elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a probabilistic method of pollen spectra analysis. The method relies on a pollen taxon characterization using biotic and abiotic plant attribute modes, and their occurrence in a given pollen spectrum at a specific site. This type of analysis can provide an interpretation, which can lead to the reconstruction of the biome and, to an extent, of the abiotic conditions at the site.The analysis has been carried out at the European scale using data provided by the European Pollen Database for about 1000 sites. This dataset contains about 50,000 pollen spectra from the last 21 ka. In these spectra, each pollen taxon has been characterized by a set of 10 chosen attributes. These have been selected with regard to their relevance in biome reconstruction, but also on the basis of available literature. By using the probability of occurrence of each taxon in a given pollen spectrum, it is possible to calculate an affinity index for the spectrum to the attribute considered. To overcome difficulties caused by pollen identification in low diversified pollen spectra, a co-occurrence concept has been used to give more information.The method has been validated on a set of 1327 modern surface samples by comparing the results to the major climatic and environmental variables that control the distribution of the vegetation. A reconstruction exercise on various characteristics of the plants was then carried out on a 6-ka dataset. This confirmed previous studies by showing a strong dominance of deciduous forest over most of Europe, related to a milder climate than at present in the north and a wetter and colder climate than at present in the south. By analysing the change in pollen/seed dispersion strategies and the light requirement, we show that the history of vegetation dynamics in relation to human influences can be assessed using this method.Our results show that the probabilistic method is an objective tool for pollen assemblage analysis. It allows reconstruction of various characteristics of the vegetation at the continental and global scale for periods and sites with significantly different climate conditions. This method can also be used to compare maps of vegetation attributes for the validation of the new generalized dynamic ecosystems models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper presents a probabilistic method for the characterization of pollen taxa using attributes, and for the reconstitution of past biomes. The probabilities are calculated on the basis of European floristic and pollen databases sufficiently large and exhaustive to provide robust estimates. Location The analysis is based on data from approximately 1000 sites throughout Europe. Method We use all the pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD), which contains about 50 000 pollen assemblages distributed across Europe and covering the period from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Using existing floras, each pollen taxon has been characterized by allocating one or more modes of several attributes, chosen according to the biogeography and phenology of the taxon. With this information, conditional probabilities are defined, representing the chance of a given attribute mode occurring in a given pollen spectrum, when the taxa assemblage is known. The concept of co-occurrence is used to provide a greater amount of information to compensate for difficulties in the identification of pollen grains, allowing a better interpretation when there is little diversity in the pollen assemblage. Results The method has been validated using a dataset of modern samples against existing methods of biome classification and remote sensing data. An application is proposed in which the new method is used to produce biomes for pollen data 6000 years ago. This confirms previous results showing an extension of the deciduous forest to the north, east and south, explained by milder winters in western and northern Europe, and cooler and wetter climate in the Mediterranean region. Conclusion The results show the new method to be efficient, reliable and flexible and to be an improvement over the previous method of biomization. They will be used to test simulations of earth system models running on periods with climate significantly different from the present day,... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The objective of the European Terrestrial Ecosystem Modelling Activity (ETEMA) was to address some of the major challenges in developing generalized models to examine responses of natural and seminatural ecosystems to environmental change at the regional to European scale. The approach described herein was to break down the totality of ecosystem functioning into its key components, each with its characteristic spatial and temporal scales. A conceptual framework was developed describing the configuration of these components as modules within a generalized simulation model. The framework describes the key inputs, outputs and state variables, their spatial and temporal contexts, and information flows between modules. The ‘backbone’ of the model is a system of nested timing loops corresponding to the disparate time scales at which different ecosystem processes occur. The framework is a theoretical construct into which ecosystem models at levels of complexity ranging from the very general to the highly detailed can be mapped, and thus provides a guide for development of models for novel, particularly regional-scale, applications. A number of subsystem studies of the major components of ecosystem functioning, i.e. modules of the conceptual framework, are briefly introduced herein. The general aim of the subsystem studies was to identify the key alternative formulations (as opposed to minor variants) and test these against observational data. The various subsystem studies concern planetary boundary layer–ecosystem interactions, ecosystem CO2 and H2O fluxes, vegetation physiology and phenology, biogeography and vegetation dynamics, detritus and SOM dynamics, soil moisture and human and natural disturbances and, as individual papers, they complete this special ETEMA issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]