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• Develops and tests a conceptual framework of seasonal culture as rhythmic patterns. • Perceived seasonal patterns shift with climatic, environmental and social changes. • People maintain, recalibrate or detach from their seasonal patterns of activities. • Recalibrating seasonal cultures to shifting rhythms is sustainable adaptation. There is a growing literature on the cultural capacities influencing communities' adaptation to environmental and social change, including the temporal frameworks they draw on for timely action. This paper focuses on seasonal cultures, and how they enable communities on the Coromandel Peninsula to interpret and adapt practical timings to disrupted patterns of seasonal rhythms. The paper develops and applies a conceptual framework of seasonal cultures as perceived rhythmic patterns practiced by communities as cultural repertoires for action, emphasising the ways cultures evolve as patterns are contested and change. This concept steered critical, mixed-method ethnographic study with communities on the peninsula over two years. The research found that Coromandel communities' cultures make seasonal change visible as long-term shifts and asynchrony between rhythmic patterns, which they linked to climatic change, environmental degradation, colonisation and globalisation, and shifting relations between society and the environment. As seasonal patterns fail to hold, communities deploy a combination of strategies for re-configuring seasonal rhythms through their practices: (i) maintaining established, institutionalised schemas of activity while coping with seasonal variability; (ii) season-proofing activities from environmental rhythms; or (iii) re-learning and recalibrating cultures to mutable configurations of rhythms in a highly modified environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Archaeological research provides important insights into climate change adaptation. • Norse and Proto-Inuit cultures developed in different learning environments. • Different learning environments produce different responses to environmental change. • Archaeology offers evidence of multi-century information transmission and learning. Using archaeological, historical, and ethnographic analysis of Norse and Inuit toys and miniatures, this paper argues that legacies of childhood learning can create limits to climatic change adaptation and provide lessons from the past relevant today. In Medieval Greenland, Norse children played with objects that would have familiarised them with the expected norms and behaviours of farming, household activities, sailing and conflict, but not with hunting, which was a key omission given the fundamental importance of wild resources to successful climatic adaptation in Greenland after the climate shocks of the mid-13th century. The restricted range of toys combined with an instructional form of learning suggests a high degree of path dependence that limited adaptation to climatic change, and we know the Norse settlement ended with the conjunctures of the 15th century that included climatic change. Inuit children, by contrast, learnt highly adapted behaviours and technologies through objects that taught locally tuned hunting skills. Inuit approaches that prioritised unstructured learning time aided the development of creative skills and problem-solving capabilities, and the Inuit successfully navigated the climatic changes of the Little Ice Age in Greenland. This insight from the past has implications for our approaches to childhood learning in the 21st century and the unfolding climate crisis. Innovative approaches to childhood teaching and learning in the context of climate change adaptation could provide effective solutions, on a timescale commensurate with that of projected climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Discourse structuration and institutionalization can identify dominant discourses. • Discourses in long-term projections from climate science frame climate action. • High degree of discourse hybridity in climate science, negotiations and commitments. • States strategically adopt hybrid discourses from climate science. Abstract This paper analyses climate science as a discourse to reveal how it enables and constrains climate change negotiations and action. Focusing on long-term outcomes projected in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report and the World Bank's "Turn Down the Heat" reports, this paper examines processes of discourse structuration and institutionalization to identify the dominant discourses which frame climate action. We trace the dominant discourses identified in the scientific reports – Survivalism, Ecological Modernisation and Economic Rationalism – through the Paris Agreement and selected Leader Statements and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions from COP21. From the 24 states included in this analysis, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is developed as a case study to investigate the hybridity and institutionalization of discourses. Even though PNG's rhetoric and commitments at COP21 express Survivalism, the state's policy frameworks rarely move beyond solutions found in Economic Rationalism and Ecological Modernisation. This suggests that states strategically adopt hybrid discourses drawn from climate science in line with their positionality, political economy and interests. Understanding how discourses drawn from climate science manifest in national policies has significant implications not only for how science is communicated at the international level but also for understanding different state positions in the global climate governance regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Excessive anthropogenic nitrogen is a global environmental problem. • A patchwork of international treaties and institutions governs nitrogen. • Contrasting the nitrogen problem can pass through the definition of global targets. • Two governance options labelled as 'holistic' and 'origin-based' are investigated. • Evaluation is made according to seven criteria. Abstract The release of excessive anthropogenic nitrogen contributes to global climate change, biodiversity loss, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Despite being an urgent global problem, the excess nitrogen is not governed globally. This paper considers possible governance options for dealing with excessive nitrogen through target setting, which is an approach commonly adopted to address global environmental problems. The articulation of the nitrogen problem and the numerous international institutions dealing with it, provide evidence of a nitrogen regime characterised by limited coordination and targets covering sources and impacts only partially. This calls for improving the nitrogen governance in the direction of more integrated approaches at the global scale. In this vein, the paper investigates two opposite governance options – here labelled as 'holistic' and 'origin-based' – and evaluates them for their capability to define solutions and targets for human-induced nitrogen. From the analysis, it emerges that origin-based solutions can be preferable to holistic solutions as they can be more specific and potentially have greater immediate results. Independent from which governance arrangement is chosen, what matters most is the speed at which an arrangement can deploy solutions to combat (fast-growing) nitrogen pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• On paper Zimbabwe has promising targets of reducing emissions targets by 2030. • Renewable energy policy for mandatory fuel blending, renewable energy and electric cars on course for decarbonization. • Lack of policy harmonisation results in policy conflicts and contradictions. • Establishment of national climate financing mechanisms enables reaching 2030 reduction targets. Zimbabwe intends to build resilience mechanisms against climate change while at the same time ensuring sustainable development in recognition of its climate change vulnerability and national circumstances, in line with the demands of the Paris Agreement of reducing emissions by 2030. The study examined the consistency of government policies in reducing emissions by 1278GgCO 2 by 2030. The study reviewed government policies and environmental projects intended at reducing carbon emissions. The results indicated that, on paper, the government has promising targets; but in reality, there are inconsistencies indicating the release of more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The inconsistencies include the commissioned Hwange thermal power station and fossil fuel-powered locomotives. The study found that there is strategic coherence between policy objectives, aimed at building resilient and low-carbon human settlement, and objectives of international policies such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Paris Agreement and SENDAI Framework. The compulsory mixing of petrol and ethanol and the introduction of electric cars in the transportation sector demonstrated the limited but commendable efforts by the government in embracing renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions. The study established that poor policy implementation and lack of policy harmonisation have led to the failure of the Zimbabwean government to have policy consistency in terms of the decarbonisation roadmap resulting in policy conflicts and contradictions. An example of policy duplication is in, the Environmental Management Act and Forestry Act which can have sections dealing with climate change harmonised into the Climate Change Policy. The study recommends that the government establishes a National Climate Financing mechanism for cleaner technologies and practices to reduce emissions by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Discusses normative and political dimensions of sustainability research. • Based on a survey among researchers engaged in Future Earth. • Distinguishes four different perspectives on transformative research. • Identifies tensions within and between perspectives. • Argues for explicitly addressing value and power in sustainability research. Abstract Global change and sustainability research increasingly focusses on informing and shaping societal transformations towards more sustainable futures. Doing so, researchers encounter the deeply political and normative dimensions of sustainability problems and potential solutions. This raises questions about the value-dimensions of science itself, as well as the appropriate relationship between science and politics. In this paper, these normative and political dimensions of sustainability research are explored based on a literature review and survey. The survey was completed by 284 researchers participating in the international research platform Future Earth: Research for Global Sustainability. The analysis of survey data reveals that sustainability researchers generally acknowledge the value-laden and political nature of their work, yet perspectives on what this means and how to deal with such dimensions vary. Four groups of respondents are distinguished and classified by the following broad narratives: transformative research as speaking truth to power, transformative research as political act, responsibility for rigorous science, and humility on solutions potential. Several tensions within and between these perspectives are identified, pertaining to the role of sustainability researchers in supporting societal transformations, the possibility and desirability of scientific independence and impartiality, and the appropriate relationship between science and politics. The paper concludes by pointing to the need for more explicit engagement with the normative and political dimensions of sustainability research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partnerships emerge as part of an environmental governance paradigm shift towards less hierarchical, more collaborative, and non-regulative steering arrangements. This paper examines the prevalence of partnerships in environmental governance on an urban level in a semi-authoritarian setting, by exploring climate initiatives in cities in China. The paper presents exploratory qualitative analysis of governance in urban China through analysis of a database of 150 climate initiatives in 15 cities, which are seen at the forefront of climate protection. The analysis suggests that climate partnerships are used as a governance strategy in China. Moreover, partnerships perform a range of essential governance functions, from rule-setting and provision of public infrastructure and services, to supporting technology development and low carbon demonstration projects. The results indicate that partnerships can facilitate local climate action by creating access to resources, such as information, technology, and funding, as well as contribute to introduction of emission reduction technology and new policy approaches. However, the inclusion of non-state actors in the formulation and delivery of climate mitigation projects redefines the lines of authority over public issues. This draws attention to two key governance challenges in the context of a comparatively state-controlled, top-down political system: skewed participation and lack of deliberative opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contemporary debate considering the use of natural resources in economic growth centres around the concept of ‘decoupling’ driven through improvements in resource efficiency. Many studies extrapolate future demand from a short time series of previous years. However, we believe there should be greater attention on the underlying demand assumptions and the possibility of long-term changes. Accordingly, this paper is concerned with a potential saturation in material use as a result of countries moving through stages of development over decades from early industrialisation, over mass production and into a mature stage. An observation of such saturation is relevant for global environmental change as future demand for resources could be lower than currently expected, leading to less associated environmental pressures. In particular, emerging economies are undergoing changing growth patterns, and their future resource use may be significantly lower than contemporary analysis suggests. This paper combines the analytical strands of resource economics and material flow analysis. It investigates both material-specific demand and stock build-up trends over an extended time horizon of a century. Four materials (steel, cement, aluminium and copper) are analysed applying an indicator called ‘Apparent Domestic Consumption’ (ADC) and using international trade data for four industrialised countries (Germany, Japan, UK, USA) together with China as the most preeminent emerging economy. Our results confirm the occurrence of a saturation effect for most materials considered. While the evidence is strong for the per capita apparent consumption of steel, copper and cement in the four industrialised countries, it is somewhat weaker for aluminium. Also, such saturation in material use can start at different income levels, with the saturation beginning to occur relatively early for steel and cement ($12,000 GDP/capita) and later for copper ($20,000 GDP/capita). The results suggest a time gap of around thirty+ years from the take-off of large-scale adoption of one type of material and any saturation occurring. We also shed light on the build-up of stocks in the economy, where our findings suggest there is a delayed saturation of at least twenty years compared to apparent consumption depending on the lifetimes of capital goods. With regard to China, a demand saturation for steel and copper has already started to occur, and our analysis suggests such saturation will soon take place for cement. These findings provide a more moderate outlook on China’s future material demand compared to an extrapolation of recent dynamics. Our new insights on the nexus between economic growth, development stages and the use of natural resources have implications for the decoupling debate and for investments into commodities. From a wider environmental policy perspective, one may expect China and other emerging economies to achieve a saturation effect soon and therefore also peak their industrial emissions of greenhouse gases, supporting the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A CGE model elaborately depicting six CCS technologies was developed. • Impacts of four CCS incentive scenarios on decarbonization pathways were simulated. • CCS can sequester 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually in China by 2060 with policy incentives. • CCS incentives can reduce China's future primary energy demand by 7.7 ∼ 17.4 %. • CCS incentives can increase GDP by 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % compared to no policy scenario. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, considered as a pivotal tool in mitigating climate change within the fossil energy system, particularly in China, has experienced slower development than expected. The exploration of direct incentive policies to facilitate its growth remains relatively underdeveloped. This study developed a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the substantial impacts of CCS incentive policies on China within the context of carbon neutrality target. Two potential incentive policies, carbon emission trading system (ETS) and 45Q tax credit, were simulated, with different sectoral coverage. The results indicate that CCS technologies can reduce carbon emissions by 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually by 2060 through the strategic implementation of these incentive policies. The 45Q tax credit demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting early-stage research and development (R&D) and demonstration of CCS, while the ETS policy facilitates the commercial development of CCS in the later stage of development. By 2060, the implementation of CCS incentive policies could potentially result in 7.7 ∼ 17.4 % reduction in China's primary energy consumption, 71.2 ∼ 82.7 % decrease in the carbon price of ETS and 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % increase in the GDP compared with the no-policy scenario. In addition, the sectoral output in various sectors and the welfare of urban and rural households also increase. This paper provides an important reference for the realization of China's carbon neutrality goal and the model framework can be applied to other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Arguments for the importance of diversity within scenario sets are developed. • The diversity of six global scenario sets is assessed. • Results show relatively good performance with regards to scenario set diversity. • There is a trade-off between covering the scenario space and redundancy. Scenario development and analysis is an important methodological approach in the assessment of global environmental change. Scenarios are used to assess climate change and its impacts on societies, economies, and ecosystems, and identify, test, and improve policy responses to manage the negative consequences of a changing environment. Evaluation of scenarios, especially global scenarios widely used in the climate research and policy community, is therefore urgently needed. While the quality and usefulness of individual scenarios have been extensively examined through a wide array of criteria, standards for systematic evaluation of scenario sets are only emerging. Scenario diversity (i.e., diversity between individual scenarios in a set) has been advanced as a measure to assess the quality of global scenario sets. In this paper, we use scenario diversity analysis, a systematic and transparent quantitative method, to examine six major global scenario sets with regards to scenario set diversity. Results show that the assessed scenario sets show relatively good performance with regards to scenario set diversity. However, the use of classic methods for building scenario architectures and the number of scenarios included in a set raise important questions about the potential trade-offs between covering a bigger space of futures possibilities and adding redundancy to the scenario set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term economic scenarios (up to 2100) are needed as a basis to explore possible different futures for major environmental challenges, including climate change. Given the high level of uncertainty involved, such scenarios would need to span a wide range of possible growth trajectories. The recently developed storylines of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a basis for making such projections. This paper describes a consistent methodology to derive (per capita) GDP trend pathways on a country basis. The methodology is based on a convergence process and places emphasis on the key drivers of economic growth in the long run: population, total factor productivity, physical capital, employment and human capital, and energy and fossil fuel resources (specifically oil and gas). The paper uses this methodology to derive country-level economic growth projections for 184 countries. The paper also investigates the influence of short-term growth rate estimates on the long-term income levels in various countries. It does so by comparing long-term projections based on short-term forecasts from 2011 with the projections based on forecasts from 2013. This highlights the effects of the recent economic crisis and uncertainty in short term developments on longer term growth trends. The projections are subject to large uncertainties, particularly for the later decades, and disregard a wide range of country-specific drivers of economic growth that are outside the narrow economic framework, such as external shocks, governance barriers and feedbacks from environmental damage. Hence, they should be interpreted with sufficient care and not be treated as predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations’ REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) mechanism has provoked sharply divergent assessments in the academic community. This paper employs Cultural Theory to investigate how a sample of scholars from different disciplinary backgrounds and ideological stances evaluate REDD, and the extent to which these sampled scholars reach out to other disciplines and ideologies to formulate REDD policy solutions. A sample of academic assessments of REDD from three groups of disciplines (ecological/political economics, environmental sciences, and anthropology) was analysed in terms of the implied ideological stance of the author (‘hierarchist,’ ‘individualist,’ and ‘egalitarian’) and the extent to which the author’s policy prescriptions offered concessions to ideological stances other than the authors own. Sampled authors from ecological/political economics and environmental sciences shared a hierarchist orientation, and were willing to make concessions to individualists but not to egalitarians. Sampled authors from anthropology shared an egalitarian orientation, and were unwilling to make significant concessions to any other ideological style. Disagreements on the issues of hegemony and eco-colonialism impeded the theoretically possible collaboration between disciplines in formulating suitably “clumsy” REDD policies that satisfy multiple value systems. This paper shows how Cultural Theory could be used as an effective heuristic device in policy-making processes for identifying some of the ideological divergences which underlie disagreements on REDD, and finding spaces for concession and collaboration on this and other hotly contested areas of environmental policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current cross-sectional methodologies measuring climate change impacts assume that regions at the same latitude face a similar climate response and therefore have the same adaptive capacity. This paper proves that assumption to be erroneous in the European Union. It does so by ameliorating the Ricardian methodology by restricting which farmers (and therefore which adaptation options) are allowed in the dataset. In doing so, a comparative Ricardian methodology is suggested that makes it possible to examine, for the first time, how the climate responsiveness of a region changes if adaptive capacity changes. The paper combines climate, soil, geographic, socio-economic, and farm-level data in a linear mixed-effect model and examines whether Eastern and Western Europe have the same climate responses and how these responses change if regional adaptive capacity increases. The paper concludes that both regions currently have a significantly different climate response, but that if Eastern Europe were to implement the same adaptation options as Western Europe, it could avoid a large decrease in land value and even benefit from climate change depending on the climate scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases and a country rich in fossil fuels, Russia plays a crucial role in achieving a comprehensive solution to climate-related challenges. Yet, Russia's official position on climate change has varied considerably since the beginning of global negotiations, with the country playing everything from policy leader to laggard. While there are a number factors that shape domestic policy positions, this study offers a comprehensive investigation of newspaper coverage on climate change in Russia. How have Russian newspapers discussed the issue since the Yeltsin era? We approach this question by compiling the largest data set of Russian newspaper coverage to date, which includes 11,131 climate-related articles from 65 papers over a roughly 35 year period. After introducing a “computer assisted” approach to measure the core themes running through climate change coverage, we statistically evaluate the national- and newspaper-level factors associated with how coverage is framed, focusing attention on 23 high circulation papers over the period from 2000 to 2014. We find that national-level predictors—particularly economic conditions—are highly influential in determining whether climate change is covered and how the issue is framed, while paper-level factors such as the presence of an energy interest and ownership structure also have notable effects. Overall, this study offers a rich data set and useful methods to better understand the drivers of climate communication in Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Extreme temperatures lead to an increase in local fiscal pressure. • Areas with intensive agriculture and low power consumption are more sensitive. • Productivity, population mobility, and power supply are the main mechanisms. • PMC reform mitigated the fiscal revenue loss and increased fiscal expenditure. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on government fiscal pressure using local governments' fiscal data in China from 2000 to 2020. While previous studies have extensively explored the effects of climate change on individuals and economies, there has been limited research on the negative effects of climate change from a government fiscal perspective. Our study makes contributions by using county-level fiscal data in China, allowing for a detailed examination of the fiscal implications of weather extremes. Moreover, we comprehensively analyze the underlying mechanisms involving population mobility, industrial structure, and electricity consumption. The empirical results indicate that each additional day of extreme temperature in a year leads to a CNY 0.002 billion increase in the general public budget deficit, which is equivalent to 0.1093% of the local fiscal deficit. Furthermore, local governments heavily reliant on agriculture, experiencing low electricity consumption, and significant population outflows face even greater challenges. Notably, medical insurance and the "province-managing-county" reform program emerge as crucial mitigating factors against fiscal pressures. By providing a thorough assessment of climate change's fiscal impact on local governments, this research contributes to the theoretical foundation for governmental initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive management and related fields have theorized new governance strategies that embrace complexity and are able to respond effectively to changing and unpredictable biophysical dynamics. However, this body of work pays inadequate attention to important on-the-ground realities, including feasibility of implementation and the power dynamics embedded in multi-scalar systems of environmental governance. This paper presents findings from a research project on challenges to adaptive management in the variable wetland ecosystem of the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Many residents of this rural region rely on transitional agricultural practices, shifting between dryland and floodplain farming in response to dynamic precipitation and flooding patterns. Higher than average floods in 2009–2011 inundated many floodplain fields past the point of production, causing farmers to shift to the dryland for multiplem seasons. At the same time, the highly centralized Government of Botswana began to implement stricter regulations over floodplain resources, which stemmed in part from a new adaptive management plan developed for the region. As a result, many farmers felt pressured by the government to abandon transitional livelihood practices and to shift permanently to dryland agriculture even though many preferred to continue floodplain farming. This loss of a responsive livelihood strategy will likely result in decreased long-term adaptive capacity for many residents. Drawing on these findings, this paper advances the argument that if adaptive management is to become a viable option for communities in changing environments, more attention must be given to the role of unequal power relations in multi-scalar systems of environmental governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an evolving typology of frames – filters of sense-making – to unpack how actors are interpreting and responding to the issue of environmental migration. We use frame analysis to draw attention to how a variety of actors define the boundaries of environmental migration, both intentionally and unintentionally, and how this generates interpretations and directions for policy action. In particular, we identify and discuss four unique framings of the environmental migrant notable in popular policy and academic debate: victims, security threats, adaptive agents and political subjects. Although not always consistently deployed by the same actors, and often hybridised, we argue that the four framings highlight different political, ideological and practical beliefs associated with particular interests and normative assumptions. The paper uses a qualitative, interpretive approach suited to understanding over-arching, macrocultural frames. We explore how key actors produce, communicate and legitimise each framing, discuss the ramifications of such and highlight major apparent critiques. We conclude that despite the four framings identified by us, scope of debate concerning environmental migration is marked by continued dynamism. Within this context, the frame perspective may stimulate greater reflexivity about assumptions and blindspots about this complex phenomenon to ground debate and action, in an arena that often relies on high-level and abstract language. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in available fresh water resources, together with changes in water use, force our society to adapt continuously to water scarcity conditions. Although several studies assess the role of long-term climate change and socioeconomic developments on global water scarcity, the impact of inter-annual climate variability is less understood and often neglected. This paper presents a global scale water scarcity assessment that accounts for both temporal changes in socioeconomic conditions and hydro-climatic variability over the period 1960–2000. We thereby visualized for the first time possible over- and underestimations that may have been made in previous water scarcity assessments due to the use long-term means in their analyses. Subsequently, we quantified the relative contribution of hydro-climatic variability and socioeconomic developments on changing water scarcity conditions. We found that hydro-climatic variability and socioeconomic changes interact and that they can strengthen or attenuate each other, both regionally and at the global scale. In general, hydro-climatic variability can be held responsible for the largest share (>79%) of the yearly changes in global water scarcity, whilst only after six to ten years, socioeconomic developments become the largest driver of change. Moreover, our results showed that the growth in the relative contribution of socioeconomic developments to changing water scarcity conditions stabilizes towards 2000 and that the impacts of hydro-climatic variability remain significantly important. The findings presented in this paper could be of use for water managers and policy makers coping with water scarcity issues since correct information both on the current situation and regarding the relative contribution of different mechanisms shaping future conditions is key to successful adaptation and risk reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relative importance of climate change in the context of multiple stressors in semi-arid Ghana. It draws upon ethnographic research in two agrarian villages, and integrates theories from resilience, vulnerability and feminist political ecology. The findings empirically demonstrate that many farmers do not worry about climate change, even in situations where local perceptions and the climate data show a clear pattern of variability. Additionally, the paper provides evidence of a ‘gendered double exposure,’ whereby patriarchy and local culture shape how different social groups are impacted by climate change. Overall, the emerging findings suggest that an overemphasis on scenario-based climate change impacts may detract attention from equally important non-climatic factors that loom large in people's lives. The article's central argument is not meant to downplay the ongoing impacts of climate change in Africa. It rather suggests that climate change should be addressed as one problem among many socio-ecological challenges facing smallholder farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural and regional hinterlands provide the ecosystem service needs for increasingly urbanised communities across the globe. These inter-related ecosystem services provide key opportunities in securing climate change mitigation and adaptation. Their integrated management in the face of climate change, however, can be confounded by fragmentation within the complex institutional arrangements concerned with natural resource management. This suggests the need for a more systemic approach to continuous improvement in the integrated and adaptive governance of natural resources. This paper explores the theoretical foundations for integrated natural resource management and reviews positive systemic improvements that have been emerging in the Australian context. In setting clear theoretical foundations, the paper explores both functional and structural aspects of natural resource governance systems. Functional considerations include issues of connectivity, knowledge use and capacity within the natural resource decision making environment. Structural considerations refer to the institutions and processes that undertake planning through to implementation, monitoring and evaluation. From this foundation, we review the last decade of emerging initiatives in governance regarding the integration of agriculture and forests across the entire Australian landscape. This includes the shift towards more devolved regional approaches to integrated natural resource management and recent progress towards the use of terrestrial carbon at landscape scale to assist in climate change mitigation and adaptation. These developments, however, have also been tempered by a significant raft of new landscape-scale regulations that have tended to be based on a more centralist philosophy that landowners should be providing ecosystem services for the wider public good without substantive reward. Given this background, we explore a case study of efforts taken to integrate the management of landscape-scale agro-ecological services in the Wet Tropics of tropical Queensland. This is being achieved primarily through the integration of regional natural resource management planning and the development of aggregated terrestrial carbon offset products at a whole of landscape scale via the Degree Celsius initiative. Finally, the paper teases out the barriers and opportunities being experienced, leading to discussion about the global implications for managing climate change, income generation and poverty reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

States have been widely criticized for failing to advance the international climate regime. Many observers now believe that a “new” climate governance is emerging through transnational and/or local forms of action that will eventually plug the resulting governance gaps. Yet states, which remain oddly absent from most discussions of the “new” governance, will remain key players as governance becomes more polycentric. This paper introduces a special issue that explores the ability of states to rise to these interconnected challenges through the analytical prism of policy innovation. It reveals that policy innovation is much more multi-dimensional than is often thought; it encompasses three vital activities: invention (centering on the ‘source’ of new policy elements), diffusion (that produces different ‘patterns’ of policy adoption), and the evaluation of the ‘effects’ that such innovations create in reality. The papers, which range from qualitative case studies to large ‘ n ’ quantitative studies, offer new insights into the varied roles that states play in relation to all three. They show, for instance that: the policy activity of states has risen dramatically in the past decade; that state innovation is affected to similar degrees by internal and external factors; and that policies that offer flexibility to target groups on how to meet policy goals are most effective but that voluntary reporting requirements are ineffective. This paper draws upon these and many other insights to offer a much more nuanced reflection on the future of climate governance; one that deservedly puts states at the front and center of analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While many studies have put forward prescriptions for action on climate change it is not clear under what conditions policy innovations are likely to be pursued or what form they will take. It is the purpose of this paper to bring some clarity to these subjects. The paper follows Hood in describing policy-makers in democratic polities as highly risk-averse and therefore unlikely to take policy action unless the circumstances and the nature of the problem they face are propitious. It also suggests that when actions are taken these are not always ‘positive’ – that is oriented towards dealing with the objective manifestations of a problem – but can also be ‘negative’ – that is, geared towards denial of a problem or its rejection. The paper examines the literature on policy failure and success in order to isolate several dimensions of failure which decision-makers would like to avoid. It then combines these elements to construct a two stage model of decision-making which identifies which types of problems and circumstances are likely to lead to innovative activity and which are not. This model is then applied to the case of activities for climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notion of polycentric governance has become increasingly popular in recent years. Such development may be attributed to expectations that polycentric governance systems have a higher capacity to deal with complex challenges arising from global and climate change. Most often, employed interpretations of polycentricity emphasize the presence of several independent centers of authority in a governance domain. A commonly neglected feature of polycentric governance, as introduced by Elinor and Vincent Ostrom, is that this concept entails as well operation under one set of overall accepted rules. This paper analyzes the underlying feature of effective polycentric governance and makes a distinction between polycentric, fragmented, and centralized governance regimes. An empirical analysis of water governance systems in 27 national river basins using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) shows that a set of factors associated with polycentricity has the highest explanatory power for high performance regarding climate change adaptation. Factors associated with fragmented and centralized regimes can be identified for paths leading to low performance. Furthermore, the analysis identifies the effectiveness of formal institutions as important condition, in particular for paths leading toward low performance. The paper elaborates on these findings and discusses as well the potential of fsQCA in such comparative analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new spatial typology of climate change risk for European cities and regions. • Response to IPCC call to understand climate change risks at sub-national levels. • Uneven climate change risk across the 33 countries covered by the typology. • Differences in risk profiles facing urban, rural and peri -urban areas. • Evidence of spatial clustering in climate change risk across typology classes. This paper aims to contribute to the analysis of climate change risk through the development of a new spatially-explicit typology of climate risk for European cities and regions. In doing so, it offers a direct response to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) call to advance awareness of climate change risks at sub-national levels through the integration of hazard, exposure and vulnerability domains into a composite risk classification that covers the whole of Europe. K-means clustering was applied to 49 variables at NUTS3 level where the final classification resulted in an upper-tier of eight 'classes', which were subsequently partitioned to derive a lower-tier of 31 'sub-classes'. A three-stage analysis of the eight-fold class configuration was then undertaken focusing on the distribution of climate risk classes, raising significant issues to inform climate change adaptation planning policy, practice and research. The analysis revealed an uneven distribution of climate change risk across the 33 countries covered by the typology, reinforcing the IPCC message that adapting and building resilience to climate change risk is not a 'one-size-fits-all' exercise. In the second stage, the analysis focused on determining whether there was a difference in the climate change risk facing different settlement types in Europe. The analysis revealed the extent of variation in the climate change risk characteristics of Europe's urban and rural areas, revealing the potential for peri -urban areas to fall between climate change risk agendas or priorities when compared to urban–rural contexts. The final component of our analysis considered the extent to which climate change risk classes exhibit patterns of spatial clustering. Here we found that climate change risk exhibits evidence of spatial clustering but the extent of the clustering varies between different classes as the relationship between contiguous NUTS3 regions changes. This finding has notable implications for transboundary adaptation planning where discontinuities in political buy-in, competition, resourcing and awareness of risk could serve to undermine the coherence and adequacy of policy responses at a time when greater cooperation and alignment is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Biodiversity conservation practices need to adapt in light of climate change. • Expert preferences influence what changes occur, how, and why. • Our global survey of experts found support for several non-traditional options. • Where effects uncertain and/or options risky or less tested, experts are cautious. • In-depth research in context is needed to explore nuance and diversity in views. Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers challenge the efficacy of traditional approaches to biodiversity conservation. Moreover, the extent and pace of drivers of change are projected to intensify, making ecological restoration of some ecosystems to historical baselines increasingly untenable. This new reality has sparked debates about what new approaches are needed in restoration and conservation. The individual preferences of experts (e.g., ecologists, land managers and restoration practitioners) strongly influence the debate, which are varied and often diverge from those of non-experts. Despite this strong influence, the role of expert preferences in conservation decisions is underexplored. What little has been published is provocative, suggesting ecologists resist implementing non-traditional or 'taboo' management practices, even if they agree they are needed in theory. This paper presents the results of a global survey of experts (n = 692), exploring in detail how experts perceive both traditional and non-traditional options in biodiversity conservation and restoration. Most experts were relatively open to incorporating non-traditional options into conservation. However, there were some apparent tensions, including acceptance that baselines are shifting, but a reluctance to let go of historical baselines as a goal. Although participants in this study were fairly supportive of managing novel ecosystems, non-native species, and more human-centred values in some situations, our research suggests ecologists may be more supportive of 'cautiously aggressive' policy, particularly if the policies are associated with additional research to reduce uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need to adapt to climate change is now widely recognised as evidence of its impacts on social and natural systems grows and greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Yet efforts to adapt to climate change, as reported in the literature over the last decade and in selected case studies, have not led to substantial rates of implementation of adaptation actions despite substantial investments in adaptation science. Moreover, implemented actions have been mostly incremental and focused on proximate causes; there are far fewer reports of more systemic or transformative actions. We found that the nature and effectiveness of responses was strongly influenced by framing. Recent decision-oriented approaches that aim to overcome this situation are framed within a “pathways” metaphor to emphasise the need for robust decision making within adaptive processes in the face of uncertainty and inter-temporal complexity. However, to date, such “adaptation pathways” approaches have mostly focused on contexts with clearly identified decision-makers and unambiguous goals; as a result, they generally assume prevailing governance regimes are conducive for adaptation and hence constrain responses to proximate causes of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore a broader conceptualisation of “adaptation pathways” that draws on ‘pathways thinking’ in the sustainable development domain to consider the implications of path dependency, interactions between adaptation plans, vested interests and global change, and situations where values, interests, or institutions constrain societal responses to change. This re-conceptualisation of adaptation pathways aims to inform decision makers about integrating incremental actions on proximate causes with the transformative aspects of societal change. Case studies illustrate what this might entail. The paper ends with a call for further exploration of theory, methods and procedures to operationalise this broader conceptualisation of adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

‘Climate geoengineering’ is becoming an increasingly prominent focus for global discussion and action. Yet, in academic, policy and wider political discourse, the frequent shorthand term ‘geoengineering’ is routinely used in very broad, ambiguous and multivalent ways. This study aims to contribute to understandings of these divergent current framings of ‘geoengineering’ and their implications. It asks not only about disparate understandings of geoengineering itself, but also what these reveal about deeper political dynamics around climate change, science and technology. To this end, the paper applies Q methodology to analyse geoengineering as a subjective discursive construct, the bounds of which are continually negotiated and contested. Thirty-five participants from a variety of political and institutional backgrounds in the UK, US, Canada and Japan undertook a ‘Q sort’ of 48 statements about geoengineering between December 2012 and February 2013. Four distinctive framings emerged from this analysis, labelled: ‘At the very least we need more research’; ‘We are the planetary maintenance engineers’; ‘Geoengineering is a political project’; and ‘Let's focus on Carbon.’ Results indicate a strong polarity around divergently construed pros and cons of geoengineering as a whole – underscoring the political salience of this term. But additional axes of difference suggest a more nuanced picture than straightforward pro/anti-positioning. The ambiguity of the term is argued to offer interpretive flexibility for articulating diverse interests within and across contending framings. The paper questions whether increasing terminological precision will necessarily facilitate greater clarity in resulting multivalent governance discussions and public engagement. It argues that the merits of any given form of precision and their policy implications will depend on particular framings. Much ambiguity in this area may thus be irreducible, with the challenges lying perhaps less in the ordering of discourse and more in reconciling the wider material political pluralities that this suggests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city – the City of New York – have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a “tipping point” leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper considers the extent to which social–ecological systems research might contribute to an improved understanding of the social and environmental impacts of teleconnections inherent in economic globalisation. Recognising the importance and specificity of regional interconnections, wherein actions in certain parts of the world impact quite specifically on the sustainability of certain other spatially distant places and systems, the paper reflects on the social and environmental implications of increasingly interconnected agri-food systems and intersecting global commodity chains. Key elements of social–ecological systems approaches, which have purported relevance to research on globalisation, are critically examined, and aspects of social–ecological systems thinking that pose challenges for its application in this context are considered. Wider implications and limitations of social–ecological systems approaches to research and practice in (global) governance for sustainability are discussed. The general conclusion is that social–ecological systems research may offer insights into the governance of social and environmental impacts of agri-food systems and other complex systems at certain scales. However, the formal utility of concepts like resilience, vulnerability and adaptability becomes considerably less clear as research turns to analyses of larger, complex, globally teleconnected systems, where the main contribution of such concepts may lie in their metaphorical appeal to important aspects of interconnectivity and interdependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Paper offers a case study of the relationship between environmental stress and human migration in northern Ethiopia. [•] Findings corroborate the contingent nature of environmental change/stress in shaping migration outcomes. [•] Paper provides a rough typology of effects shaping mobility decisions in a context of environmental stress. [•] The typology moves beyond existing characterisations based on the nature of movement. [•] The typology provides a systematic means for thinking through mobility decisions taken in a context of environmental stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper applies a behavioral economics model of cigarette addiction to the issue of fossil fuel usage and climate change. Both problems involve consumption of a currently beneficial product that causes detrimental effects in the distant future and for which current reductions in usage induces an adjustment cost. The paper argues that because fossil fuel control requires solving an international public goods problem as well as an addiction-like problem, breaking it will be more challenging. Using insights from the model, it also suggests that fossil fuel addiction, like cigarette addiction, may generate a long period of time in which people express sincere desire to convert to clean energy, but accomplish little to achieve that outcome. Finally the paper examines the history of the international anti-smoking campaign to draw insights for the campaign against global climate change. The analogy suggests that policies to reduce the present cost of non-carbon energy sources to induce voluntary adjustments in energy usage, or, policies that induce cleaner usage of fossil fuels, or geo-engineering policies that work to reverse the warming effects of higher CO2 concentrations, may be more viable than policies that raise the cost of current fossil fuel consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines how the claim of a two degrees dangerous limit to climate change is represented in the public sphere. The cultural circuits model is used to frame a discourse analysis and content analysis of UK news media, popular science books and advocacy literature. This analysis is supported with perspectives gleaned from semi-structured interviews with a range of expert actors. The results show that news reports largely ignore the two degree limit and where it is mentioned it is validated through invocation of anonymous expert knowledge. Discourses which do recognise uncertainties surrounding definitions of dangerous change still support the two degree limit. Primary sources show a rejection of the two degree limit as a division between safe and dangerous climate change. Arguments made by advocates that the concept at least allows the public to debate complex climate science is not supported by the manner in which the limit is constructed in public discourses. The results demonstrate that public representations of the two degree limit idea have not evolved, despite developments in climate science casting doubt on the veracity of the two degree limit. The paper concludes that framing climate policy within the two degree metric is not delivering the hoped for emission reductions and it may therefore be appropriate for public discourses to recognise the role of non-scientific factors in defining how much climate change is dangerous. Such a change might prove an important step in the development of a more participatory debate about climate policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Cities are key sites where climate change is being addressed. Previous research has largely overlooked the multiplicity of climate change responses emerging outside formal contexts of decision-making and led by actors other than municipal governments. Moreover, existing research has largely focused on case studies of climate change mitigation in developed economies. The objective of this paper is to uncover the heterogeneous mix of actors, settings, governance arrangements and technologies involved in the governance of climate change in cities in different parts of the world. The paper focuses on urban climate change governance as a process of experimentation. Climate change experiments are presented here as interventions to try out new ideas and methods in the context of future uncertainties. They serve to understand how interventions work in practice, in new contexts where they are thought of as innovative. To study experimentation, the paper presents evidence from the analysis of a database of 627 urban climate change experiments in a sample of 100 global cities. The analysis suggests that, since 2005, experimentation is a feature of urban responses to climate change across different world regions and multiple sectors. Although experimentation does not appear to be related to particular kinds of urban economic and social conditions, some of its core features are visible. For example, experimentation tends to focus on energy. Also, both social and technical forms of experimentation are visible, but technical experimentation is more common in urban infrastructure systems. While municipal governments have a critical role in climate change experimentation, they often act alongside other actors and in a variety of forms of partnership. These findings point at experimentation as a key tool to open up new political spaces for governing climate change in the city. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: One of the central questions in climate change debates concerns fair burden-sharing, i.e. justice in the distribution of costs of undertaking climate-managing policies. In this paper it is argued that in order to distribute such costs justly, it is necessary to have a nuanced understanding of what types of burdens they represent. Climate managing policies are usually divided into responses that seek to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (mitigation) and responses that seek to prevent harm arising from a changing climate (adaptation). Some have argued that there are normatively significant differences between mitigation and adaptation: that the two responses adhere to different logics and evoke different patterns of burden-sharing. This paper argues that the relevant distinction is instead between negative and positive climate duties, i.e. whether an agent has a duty to undertake climate-managing policies on account of the harm its excessive emissions are causing or simply on account of its ability to assist those in need. The paper offers a typology of the different mitigation and adaptation responses that can be sorted under the negative/positive distinctions. This way of conceptualizing the issue not only enables us to better address the burden-sharing question, offering a more nuanced understanding of the types of climate burdens that are ascribable to agents and pointing out the appropriate roles of contributory responsibility and ability. It also clarifies aspects of the climate negotiations, and explains why it matters whether adaptation finance transferred to vulnerable countries is portrayed as compensation for harmful emissions or simply as donor countries discharging their humanitarian duties. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Accounts that address the governance of adaptation are increasingly exploring the ways in which the institutional context can both enable and constrain effective and equal adaptation. This paper contributes to such a growing field by providing empirical evidence derived from participatory field research in the Nepali districts of Chitwan and Nawalparasi in 2010. The results support previous arguments that emphasise the need to address the multi-scalar context of adaptation as a governance issue associated with individual and collective deliberative action (or inaction). Institution analysis identifies the ways in which networks of powerful and well-connected political actors are able to control adaptation projects, flows of knowledge and information, and the ways in which institutions and organisations intervene in response to livelihood needs. This control is under-pinned by an unequal scalar politics that constructs and reproduces particular local adaptation needs at multiple governance scales at once. Many existing tools and frameworks for assessing the institutional elements of adaptation are unable to grapple with these factors systematically. The paper concludes with a call for further attention to forms of scalar politics in the governance of adaptation so that we might be able to more effectively theorise up from local complexity without glossing over inherent power relations, social inequalities, and institutional constraints. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyzes discourses and practices of flood response and adaptation to climate change in Mozambique. It builds on recent publications on climate change adaptation that suggest that the successes and failures of adaptation highly depend on the cultural and political realms of societal perceptions and the sensitivity of institutions. To capture this, the paper adopted a multi-sited ethnographic approach. Acknowledging that there is no central locus of representation that can unveil the working of disaster response in Mozambique, the paper brings together five vignettes of research in different ‘sites’ of concern to the rise in floods in Mozambique. These are the politics of climate change adaptation at the national institutional level, societal responses to increased flooding, local people''s responses to floods, the evacuation and resettlement programme following the 2007 flood. The paper finds how adaptation to climate change becomes part of everyday politics, how actors aim to incorporate responses into the continuation of their normal behavior and how elites are better positioned to take advantage of adaptation programmes than the vulnerable people that were targeted. It argues that climate change adaptation must be made consonant with historically grown and ongoing social and institutional processes. It concludes with lessons that the analysis and methodology of the research can provide for the practice of climate change adaptation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change will affect agricultural production by subsistence farms in crop centers of origin, where landraces are conserved in situ. Various strategies for adaptation to climate change have been proposed. In this paper we examine the prospects of what we call the ‘transgenic adaptation strategy’, i.e. the appeal to use transgenic seeds to adapt to climate change, through the lens of smallholder maize farming in Mexico. Landraces are the bedrock of maize production in Mexico. We consider how maize farmers may respond to climate change and the effects of those responses on crop diversity. In this paper, we argue that the promotion of the transgenic adaptation strategy is problematic for biological and social reasons. Smallholder livelihoods in southern Mexico could suffer a disproportionate negative impact if transgenic technology is privileged as a response to climate change. Agroecological and evolutionary approaches to addressing the effects of climate change on smallholder agriculture provides an alternative adaptive strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The specter of climate change threatens fresh water resources along the U.S.–Mexico border. Water managers and planners on both sides of the border are promoting desalination—the conversion of seawater or brackish groundwater to fresh water—as an adaptation response that can help meet growing water demands and buffer against the negative impacts of climate change on regional water supplies. However, the uneven distribution of costs and benefits of this expensive, energy-intensive technology is likely to exacerbate existing social inequalities in the border zone. In this paper, we examine the discourses employed in the construction of the climate problem and proposed solutions. We focus our analysis on a proposed Arizona–Sonora binational desalination project and use insights from risk and hazards literature to analyze how, why, and to what effect desalination is emerging as a preferred climate change adaptation response. Our risk analysis shows that while desalination technology can reduce some vulnerabilities (e.g., future water supply), it can also introduce new vulnerabilities by compounding the water-energy nexus, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, inducing urban growth, producing brine discharge and chemical pollutants, shifting geopolitical relations of water security, and increasing water prices. Additionally, a high-tech and path-dependent response will likely result in increased reliance on technical expertise, less opportunity for participatory decision-making and reduced flexibility. The paper concludes by proposing alternative adaptation responses that can offer greater flexibility, are less path dependent, incorporate social learning, and target the poorest and most vulnerable members of the community. These alternatives can build greater adaptive capacity and ensure equity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper discusses the discourses on climate change adaptation and mitigation that are currently at the forefront in the Congo Basin. On mitigation, the forests have enormous opportunities to contribute to the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) mechanism. But the forest itself and its multiple dependent societies and sectors need to adapt to potential climate risks. Hence, actors are debating the design of climate change policy in the forest sector. Theoretically, we combine the agency-focus of frame analysis and discourse theory to analyze how different agents hold frames on climate change adaptation and mitigation policies in the region. This paper draws upon interviews with 103 different actors from government, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, research institutions and private sector in three countries: Cameroon, Central African Republic (CAR) and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Three discourses were found on policy response to climate change in the forest sector: mitigation policy only, separated policy on adaptation and mitigation, and an integrated policy on adaptation and mitigation. The various frames articulated around each discourse by the coalitions include elements of: costs and benefits, scale of operation, effectiveness, financial resources and implementation mechanisms. Overall, the mitigation discourse, through its mix of actors, resources and interests seems to be stronger than the adaptation discourse. The paper finally outlines a number of implications of the discourses for policy design. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article contributes to the understanding of how to proceed with the development of index-insurance in order to reach extended population coverage with the insurance. The approach is applied to an example from a region in Tanzania. One of the main coping strategies that resource-poor households rely on to manage risks related to fluctuations in income flows is risk-sharing in informal networks. An informal network is an ideal way of managing idiosyncratic shocks, but once such shocks become covariate and affect whole communities, as is the case with most climate change impacts, informal networks become insufficient since the majority of risk-sharers will be affected by the shock at the same time. This paper proposes a collective approach to index-insurance in which the members of an informal network will be insured as one insurance taker. The paper raises a conceptual argument that targeting households through existing informal networks will remove a number of prevailing barriers to the take-up of insurance and consequently the approach has the potential to increase households’ resilience to climate change impacts. The policy implications of the conclusions are significant since the number of covariate shocks is predicted to increase with climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The precautionary principle is a mandate to tread cautiously when managing novel threats to the environment or human health. A major obstacle when applying the principle at the international level is disagreement about how precautionary efforts should be constrained to ensure that policy costs are proportional to the attained level of protection. Proportionality is an unresolved question when preliminary evidence precludes decision-makers from assigning probabilities over future events. The paper suggests practical analytical tools for communicating ex ante trade-offs when probabilities are unavailable. The tools could be used to facilitate discussion and compromise when implementing precautionary decisions in international settings where cooperation is important. The approach is demonstrated in an application to climate policy that uses the integrated assessment model DICE (). The paper also situates the task of precautionary decision-making within the broader context of implementing a precautionary response at the international level. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Over the past decade research examining the human dimensions of climatic change in the Arctic has expanded significantly and has become the dominant framework through which the relations between northern peoples and climatic change are understood by scholars, policy makers, political leaders, and the media. This paper critically examines the assumptions, exclusions, and orientations that characterize this broad literature, and suggests revising and expanding the terms upon which it is carried out. It focuses in particular on the exclusion of colonialism from the study of human vulnerability and adaptation to climatic change, the framing of Indigenous peoples and communities in terms of the local and the traditional, and the ways in which efforts to improve the lives of northern Indigenous peoples risk perpetuating colonial relations. The paper argues that these exclusions and orientations lead scholars to systematically overlook the immense importance of resource extraction and shipping as human dimensions of climatic change in the Canadian Arctic, and it examines the implications of such oversights. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides an evidence-based contribution to understanding processes of climate change adaptation in water governance systems in the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. It builds upon the work of Ostrom on institutional design principles for local common pool resources systems. We argue that for dealing with complexities and uncertainties related to climate change impacts (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of floods or droughts) additional or adjusted institutional design propositions are necessary that facilitate learning processes. This is especially the case for dealing with complex, cross-boundary and large-scale resource systems, such as river basins and delta areas in the Netherlands and South Africa or groundwater systems in Western Australia. In this paper we provide empirical support for a set of eight refined and extended institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Together they capture structural, agency and learning dimensions of the adaptation challenge and they provide a strong initial framework to explore key institutional issues in the governance of adaptation to climate change. These institutional design propositions support a “management as learning” approach to dealing with complexity and uncertainty. They do not specify blueprints, but encourage adaptation tuned to the specific features of local geography, ecology, economies and cultures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Adaptation to climate change is already being delivered by public and private actors, yet there has been little analysis of the relationships between the providers and beneficiaries of adaptation. This paper reviews the type of actors that are supplying adaptation services and their motivations. We then focus on a specific, under-explored case of adaptation: that of privately provided adaptation public goods and services, the realization of which is contingent on the individual management of private goods and private risks. Following the work of we find that the benefits of the privately provided adaptation public good do not necessarily accrue back to the (same) individuals who are the providers. The characteristics of this particular form of public good pose specific institutional challenges. In this paper we: 1) explore the characteristics and defining features of these privately provided adaptation public goods; 2) argue that this form of adaptation provisioning is increasingly recognised as a feature in climate change adaptation (and/or social transformation) problems; 3) review existing cases of effective/ineffective management of these public goods; and 4) outline the institutions that may be required to facilitate the management of these public goods for adaptation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • El Nino impacts on six socio-ecological systems are described. • Diverse experiences of 2015–16 El Nino event across these systems. • System resilience shaped by interaction of short and long term processes. • El Nino experiences provide window for analysing long term resilience. Abstract In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term 'event' occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Specialisation at national level hampers mitigation-adaptation integration. • Local actors prioritize climate adaptation but lack of influence hinders action. • Decentralisation affects cross-level power differentials in land and climate domains. • Dominant national level communities exclude localities from policy decisions. Abstract This article proposes an innovative theoretical framework that combines institutional and policy network approaches to study multi-level governance. The framework is used to derive a number of propositions on how cross-level power imbalances shape communication and collaboration across multiple levels of governance. The framework is then applied to examine the nature of cross-level interactions in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy processes in the land use sectors of Brazil and Indonesia. The paper identifies major barriers to cross-level communication and collaboration between national and sub-national levels. These are due to power imbalances across governance levels that reflect broader institutional differences between federal and decentralized systems of government. In addition, powerful communities operating predominantly at the national level hamper cross-level interactions. The analysis also reveals that engagement of national level actors is more extensive in the mitigation and that of local actors in the adaptation policy domain, and specialisation in one of the climate change responses at the national level hampers effective climate policy integration in the land use sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recent moves by national and local policy makers have sought to encourage individuals to engage in a wide range of pro-environmental practices to address both discrete environmental problems and major, global challenges such as climate change. The major framing device for these developments is the notion of ‘citizen–consumers’, which positions individual ecological responsibilities alongside consumer choice logics in a Neo-liberal socio-economic framework. In the environmental social sciences, there have been recent moves to interpret the citizen–consumer through adopting a social practices approach, which advances the notion that in understanding environmental commitments, a deeper appreciation of underlying norms, values, identity politics and consumption is required to uncover the complex processes that lead to environmental practices in specific contexts. This paper argues that whilst these approaches have considerable utility in tracing the normalisation of established and discrete environmental practices in particular contexts, the issue of climate change represents an independent and over-arching discursive conflict between new and embedded practices that challenges the ability of citizen–consumers to act as agents for change. Accordingly, the data presented in this paper suggest that climate change can be seen as an unsettling and dynamic issue that generates discursive conflict in its own right around fundamental issues of knowledge, responsibility, scale and place. The paper therefore argues that a new and more critical perspective is required within environmental social science to understand (conflicting) discourses of sustainable living between the ‘passive’ normalisation of conventional environmental practice and the ‘contested’ ambiguities of climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change become increasingly apparent, the need for facilitating successful adaptation and enhancing adaptive capacity within the context of sustainable development is clear. With adaptation high on the agenda, the notion of limits and barriers to adaptation has recently received much attention within both academic and policymaking spheres. While emerging literature has been quick to depict limits and barriers in terms of natural, financial, or technologic processes, there is a clear shortfall in acknowledging social barriers to adaptation. It is against such a backdrop that this paper sets out to expose and explore some of the underlying features of social barriers to adaptation, drawing on insights from two case studies in the Western Nepal. This paper exposes the significant role of cognitive, normative and institutional factors in both influencing and prescribing adaptation. It explores how restrictive social environments can limit adaptation actions and influence adaptive capacity at the local level, particularly for the marginalised and socially excluded. The findings suggest a need for greater recognition of the diversity and complexity of social barriers, strategic planning and incorporation at national and local levels, as well as an emphasis on tackling the underlying drivers of vulnerability and social exclusion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]