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Objective: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. Methods: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. Results: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. Conclusion: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Background and aims: Interferon (IFN) induced hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion is durable in 80-90% of chronic hepatitis B patients. Preliminary reports on the durability of HBeAg seroconversion following lamivudine are contradictory. We investigated the durability of response following IFN, lamivudine, or IFN-lamivudine combination therapy in a meta-analysis of individual patient data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty four centres included 130 patients in total with an HBeAg seroconversion (HBeAg negative, antibodies to hepatitis B e antigen positive) at the end of antiviral therapy: 59 with lamivudine, 49 with interferon, and 22 with combination therapy. Relapse was defined as confirmed reappearance of HBeAg. RESULTS: The three year cumulative HBeAg relapse rate by the Kaplan-Meier method was 54% for lamivudine, 32% for IFN, and 23% for combination therapy (p=0.01). Cox regression analysis identified pretreatment hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), sex, and therapy as independent predictive factors of post-treatment relapse; Asian race, previous therapy, centre, and type of study were not predictive of relapse. The relative HBeAg relapse risk of lamivudine compared with IFN therapy was 4.6 and that of combination therapy to IFN therapy 0.7 (p(overall)=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The durability of HBeAg seroconversion following lamivudine treatment was significantly lower than that following IFN or IFN-lamivudine combination therapy. The risk of relapse after HBeAg seroconversion was also related to pretreatment levels of serum ALT and HBV DNA, but independent of Asian race.

BACKGROUND: Malignancy, hypercoagulability, and conditions leading to decreased portal flow have been reported