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Costly targeted therapies are playing an increasingly important role in treating cancer. To characterize trends in spending on targeted therapies for breast cancer and to estimate the association of these therapies with cancer mortality, we analyzed cancer diagnoses in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare linked database. We categorized total cancer spending into spending on targeted therapies, spending on nontargeted therapies, and spending on other cancer care. Diagnosis-year spending on targeted therapies increased from $1,024 per patient in 2000 to $18,809 per patient in 2015 for patients with advanced-stage cancer and from $82 to $3,289 for patients with early-stage cancer. For patients with advanced-stage cancer, a $1,000 increase in spending on targeted therapies in the diagnosis year was associated with a 0.55-percentage-point decrease in adjusted three-year cancer mortality, whereas for patients with early-stage cancer, there was no association. The other two types of spending (on nontargeted therapies and other cancer care) were not associated with mortality among patients with either advanced- or early-stage cancer. Our results indicate that among various types of cancer treatments, only targeted therapies generated meaningful survival gains for patients with advanced-stage breast cancer.

Treatment of hepatitis C virus, the most common chronic viral infection in the United States, has historically suffered from challenges including serious side effects, low efficacy, and ongoing transmission and reinfection. Recent innovations have produced breakthrough therapies that are effective in more than 90 percent of patients. These treatments could dramatically reduce the virus's prevalence but are costly. To quantify the benefit of these treatments to society, including the value of reduced transmission, we estimated the effects of several hepatitis C treatment strategies on cost and population health. Treating patients at all disease stages could generate $610-$1,221 billion in additional quality-adjusted life-years, plus an additional $139 billion in saved medical expenditures over fifty years, and minimize the disease burden, but up-front treatment costs would exceed $150 billion. An intermediate scenario--treating 5 percent of the infected population annually, regardless of patients' disease stages--would also return substantial benefits and would be much more affordable under current financing schemes.

Health care spending and health outcomes vary markedly across countries, but the association between spending and outcomes remains unclear. This inevitably raises questions as to whether continuing growth in spending is justified, especially relative to the rising cost of cancer care. We compared cancer care across sixteen countries over time, examining changes in cancer spending and two measures of cancer mortality (amenable and excess mortality). We found that compared to low-spending health systems, high-spending systems had consistently lower cancer mortality in the period 1995-2007. Similarly, we found that the countries that increased spending the most had a 17 percent decrease in amenable mortality, compared to 8 percent in the countries with the lowest growth in cancer spending. For excess mortality, the corresponding decreases were 13 percent and 9 percent. Additionally, the rate of decrease for the countries with the highest spending growth was faster than the all-country trend. These findings are consistent with the existence of a link between higher cancer spending and lower cancer mortality. However, further work is needed to investigate the mechanisms that underlie this correlation.

Surgeons increasingly use robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery for a variety of medical conditions. For hospitals, the acquisition and maintenance of a robot requires a significant investment, but financial returns are not linked to any improvement in long-term patient outcomes in the current reimbursement environment. Kidney cancer provides a useful case study for evaluating the long-term value that this innovation can provide. Kidney cancer is generally treated through partial or radical nephrectomy, with evidence favoring the former procedure for appropriate patients. We found that robot-assisted surgery increased access to partial nephrectomy and that partial nephrectomy reduced mortality and renal failure. The value of the benefits of robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery to patients, in terms of quality-adjusted life-years gained, outweighed the health care and surgical costs to patients and payers by a ratio of five to one. In addition, we found no evidence that the availability of robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery increased the likelihood that inappropriate patients received partial nephrectomy.

Specialty pharmaceuticals include most injectable and biologic agents used to treat complex conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, and cancer. We analyzed trends in specialty drug spending among Medicare beneficiaries ages sixty-five and older using 2007–11 pharmacy claims data from a 20 percent sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Annual specialty drug spending per beneficiary who used specialty drugs increased considerably during the study period, from $2,641 to $8,976. However, specialty drugs accounted for only 6.7 percent of total drug spending per beneficiary in 2007 and 9.1 percent in 2011. Moreover, in 2011 cost-sharing reductions under the Affordable Care Act significantly reduced specialty drug users’ out-of-pocket burden, which decreased 26 percent from 2010. Oral cancer agents accounted for a significant proportion of the increase in specialty drug spending among the study population. This suggests that the migration of specialty drug coverage from Medicare’s Part B medical benefit to the Part D pharmacy benefit because of new treatment options may play an important role in specialty pharmacy trends. This shift is likely to continue as pharmaceutical innovations enable more specialty therapeutics to be self-administered and to be covered under the pharmacy instead of the medical benefit.

In this commentary we debunk a number of the most common misconceptions about cancer treatment, such as claims that the war on cancer has been a failure and that treatment costs are unsustainable. In addition, there is good evidence that patients value these treatments more highly than traditional cost-effectiveness analysis would indicate. We argue that coverage policies placing undue burden on patients are socially wasteful and will likely discourage further innovation.

Public health agencies face difficult decisions when allocating scarce resources to control the spread of HIV/AIDS. Decisions are often made with few local empirical data. We demonstrated the use of the robust decision making approach in Los Angeles County, an approach that is data driven and allows decision makers to compare the performance of various intervention strategies across thousands of simulated future scenarios. We found that the prevailing strategy of emphasizing behavioral risk reduction interventions was unlikely to achieve the policy goals of the national HIV/AIDS strategy. Of the alternative strategies we examined, those that invested most heavily in interventions to initiate antiretroviral treatment and support treatment adherence were the most likely to achieve policy objectives. By employing similar methods, other public health agencies can identify robust strategies and invest in interventions more likely to achieve HIV/AIDS policy goals.

In recent years, guidelines for HIV treatment have recommended initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) earlier in the course of the disease than was previously the case. These recommendations stem in part from growing evidence that treatment reduces the risk of sexual transmission. We used an epidemiological model of disease transmission and progression to assess HIV prevention through early treatment—that is, initiation of cART when CD4 white blood cell counts are in excess of 350 cells per cubic millimeter. (CD4 cells are involved in the immune system’s defense against tumors and infection; the number of CD4 cells in a cubic millimeter of blood is a standard measure of immune response to antiretroviral therapy.) We estimated that the actual timing of treatment initiation in the United States prevented 188,000 HIV cases in the period 1996–2009. “Very early” treatment (at CD4 counts greater than 500) accounted for four-fifths of the prevented cases. For all of the prevented cases, the loss...

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model—a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans in the United States—we compared optimistic “disease specific” scenarios with a hypothetical “delayed aging” scenario in terms of their impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060—mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would substantially increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security, but these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.

Newly arrived Mexican immigrants in the United States generally report better health than do native-born Americans, but this health advantage erodes over time. At issue is whether the advantage is illusory-a product of disease that goes undiagnosed in Mexico but is discovered after immigration. Using results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we compared clinical to self-reported diagnosed disease prevalence and found that Mexican immigrants are not as healthy as previously thought when undiagnosed disease is taken into account, particularly with respect to diabetes. About half of recent immigrants with diabetes were unaware that they had the disease-an undiagnosed prevalence that was 2.3 times higher than that among Mexican Americans with similar characteristics. Diagnosed prevalence was 47 percent lower among recent Mexican immigrants than among native-born Americans for both diabetes and hypertension, but undiagnosed disease explained one-third of this recent immigrant advantage for diabetes and one-fifth for hypertension. The remaining health advantage might be explained in part by immigrant selectivity-the notion that healthier people might be more likely to come to the United States. Lack of disease awareness is clearly a serious problem among recent Mexican immigrants. Since undiagnosed disease can have adverse health consequences, medical practice should emphasize disease detection among new arrivals as part of routine visits. Although we found little evidence that health insurance plays much of a role in preventing these diseases, we did find that having health insurance was an important factor in promoting awareness of both hypertension and diabetes.

Health care providers serving vulnerable patients in Los Angeles have developed programs intended to increase diabetes control through more intensive patient education and engagement. We examined two programs, the first using a short-term intensive intervention by a care team including nurses and a specialist, and the second integrating case management and clinical pharmacy programs into primary care in a community clinic. We show evidence that both models improved short-term disease control, as measured by reductions in HbA1c (blood glucose) and low-density lipoprotein (sometimes referred to as ”bad” cholesterol). However, integrating case management and clinical pharmacy programs into a primary care setting was less labor intensive and potentially less expensive than the care team intervention. The challenge is to understand the essential aspects of these interventions; refining their design so that they are cost-effective and fiscally feasible; and identifying long-term health and cost effects.

The rising availability through the Internet of commonly abused prescription drugs has raised public health concerns. We examined whether the growth of US prescription drug abuse may be explained by the parallel growth in high-speed Internet use. We find that for every 10 percent increase in high-speed Internet use at the state level, associated treatment facility admissions for prescription drug abuse rose by 1 percent. Admissions for abuse of alcohol, cocaine, and heroin, which are not readily purchased online, had minimal or negative growth during the same period. The results suggest that better surveillance of online prescription drug sales is warranted, and aggressive efforts to curb illegitimate online pharmacies may be necessary.

U.S. consumers generate more pharmaceutical revenue per person than Europeans do. This has led some U.S. policymakers to call for limits on U.S. pharmaceutical spending and prices. Using a microsimulation approach, we analyze the welfare impacts of lowering U.S. prices toward European levels, and how these impacts vary with key modeling assumptions. Under the assumptions most favorable to them, price controls generate modest benefits (a few thousand dollars per person). However, for the remainder of plausible assumptions, price controls generate costs that are an order of magnitude higher. In contrast, publicly financing reductions in consumer prices, without affecting manufacturer prices, delivers benefits in virtually all plausible cases.

We describe pharmaceutical regulations in nineteen developed countries from 1992 to 2004 and analyze how different regulations affect pharmaceutical revenues. First, there has been a trend toward increased regulation. Second, most regulations reduce pharmaceutical revenues significantly. Third, since 1994, most countries adopting new regulations already had some regulation in place. We find that incremental regulation of this kind had a smaller impact on costs. However, introducing new regulations in a largely unregulated market, such as the United States, could greatly reduce pharmaceutical revenues. Finally, we show that the cost-reducing effects of price controls increase the longer they remain in place.

In this paper we examine medication use among retirees with employer-sponsored drug coverage both with and without annual benefit limits. We find that pharmacy benefit caps are associated with higher rates of medication discontinuation across the most common therapeutic classes and that only a minority of those who discontinue use reinitiate therapy once coverage resumes. Plan members who reach their cap are more likely than others to switch plans and increase their rate of generic use; however, in most cases, the shift is temporary. Given the similarities between these plans and Part D, we make some inferences about reforms for Medicare.

Obesity could have serious consequences for older cohorts. We used a microsimulation to estimate lifetime costs, life expectancy, disease, and disability for seventy-year-olds based on bo...

This paper forecasts the consequences of scientific progress in cancer for total Medicare spending between 2005 and 2030. Because technological advance is uncertain, widely varying scenar...

The high costs of treating chronic diseases suggest that reducing their prevalence would improve Medicare's financial stability. In this paper we examine the impact of selected chronic diseases on the distribution of health spending and its variation over the course of disease. We also use a microsimulation model to estimate these conditions’ impact on life expectancy and health spending from age sixty-five to death. A sixty-five-year-old with a serious chronic illness spends $1,000–$2,000 more per year on health care than a similar adult without the condition. However, cumulative Medicare payments are only modestly higher for the chronically ill because of their shorter life expectancy.

We used a method that combined literature review and expertjudgment to assess potential medical innovations for older adults. We evaluated innovations in four domains: cardiovascular disease, cancer, the biology of aging, and neurologic disease. The innovations can be categorized by common themes: improved disease prevention, better detection of subclinical or early clinical disease, and treatments for established disease. We report the likelihood, potential impact, and potential cost implications for thirty-four innovations, and we revisit this forecast five years later. Many of the innovations have the potential to greatly affect the costs and outcomes of health care.

This paper forecasts the impact of changing disability rates on spending by Medicare beneficiaries. We adjust for differential changes in spending by the disabled because the composition ...

This paper investigates trends in disability in the U.S. population, particularly among people under age fifty. Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30-49. We suggest some possible explanations for rising disability levels, such as obesity, technological advances in medicine, and changing disability insurance laws. Obesity and its attendant disorders seem particularly associated with these trends, although the data are not definitive. Whatever its sources, rising disability among the young could have adverse consequences for public programs such as disability insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Today the United States may be on the cusp of changing from a cost-unconscious health care system to one that seeks value. The consequences of adopting a value-based approach to coverage have not been well studied; however, several broad strands of the health literature suggest that spending could be reduced by as much as 30 percent without adversely affecting health.

Kenneth Thorpe and David Howard provide an important snapshot of the long-term trends in Medicare beneficiaries’ health care spending. They use clever methods to shed new light on increases in per capita spending, convincingly demonstrating that treatment patterns are a major factor. But several puzzles remain. Trends in per capita spending differ from other findings in that Thorpe and Howard find costs rising fastest for those with multiple conditions, and it is unclear what would happen if one took lifetime spending into account. Reliable predictions about long-term trends will require information on any health benefits associated with increases in diagnosis and treatment.

Recent innovations in biomedicine seem poised to revolutionize medical practice. At the same time, disease and disability are increasing among younger populations. This paper considers ho...