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Significant contributions have been made since the World Health Organization published Brian Abel-Smith's pioneering comparative study of national health expenditures more than 50 years ago. There have been major advances in theories, model specifications, methodological approaches, and data structures. This introductory essay provides a historical context for this line of work, highlights four newly published studies that move health economics research forward, and indicates several important areas of challenging but potentially fruitful research to strengthen future contributions to the literature and make empirical findings more useful for evaluating health policy decisions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of undocumented migrants in high-income countries has increased in recent decades, imposing considerable political, fiscal, and social pressures on governments. This has fostered discussions on whether and to what extent undocumented migrants should get access to public programs and public benefits. Looking at the 2012 Spanish health reform, this is the first paper to document the impacts of a restriction on access to the health-care system for undocumented migrants on health-care utilization, health-care system perceptions, and self-reported health in a high-income country. We show that such restrictions may significantly reduce planned care for undocumented migrants and result in sharp fall in positive opinions about the health-care services still left available to them. We also exploit the heterogeneity in implementing the policy across regions and report stronger effects in regions that enforced the national ban more fully. Furthermore, in the first 3 years since the implementation of the reform, we find suggestive evidence of a worsening in self-assessed health. This study is relevant for policymakers in the developed world, especially in countries that have recently implemented initiatives aimed at reducing the health-care coverage for targeted groups, such as the United Kingdom and the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In developed nations, public health agencies typically use data from randomized controlled trials to evaluate new drugs. However, these trials routinely exclude populations to which clinicians prescribe approved drugs, meaning some patients are treated with drugs, which were approved on the basis of another group's treatment response. Despite having opportunities to change, some health agencies have not mandated greater inclusion in drug trials and appear to prefer remaining ignorant of some populations' treatment effects when approving a drug. To explore this decision, I introduce a novel mechanism by which a health agency would choose to be intentionally agnostic regarding a population's treatment response. The main contribution of this paper is in showing how ambiguity about on-label and off-label prescription rates could possibly encourage population exclusion in drug approval trials even in the absence of concerns about trial necessity or cost., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper presents a conceptual framework to analyse the design of the cost-effectiveness appraisal process of new healthcare technologies. The framework characterises the appraisal processes as a diagnostic test aimed at identifying cost-effective (true positive) and non-cost-effective (true negative) technologies. Using the framework, factors that influence the value of operating an appraisal process, in terms of net gain to population health, are identified. The framework is used to gain insight into current policy questions including (a) how rigorous the process should be, (b) who should have the burden of proof, and (c) how optimal design changes when allowing for appeals, price reductions, resubmissions, and re-evaluations. The paper demonstrates that there is no one optimal appraisal process and the process should be adapted over time and to the specific technology under assessment. Optimal design depends on country-specific features of (future) technologies, for example, effect, price, and size of the patient population, which might explain the difference in appraisal processes across countries. It is shown that burden of proof should be placed on the producers and that the impact of price reductions and patient access schemes on the producer's price setting should be considered when designing the appraisal process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The roles of income and technology as the major determinants of aggregate healthcare expenditure (HEXP) continue to interest economists and health policy researchers. Concepts and measures of medical technologies remain complex; however, income (on the demand side) and technology (on the supply side) are important drivers of HEXP. This paper presents analysis of Australia's HEXP, using time-series econometrics modeling techniques applied to 1971-2011 annual aggregate data. Our work fills two important gaps in the literature. First, we model the determinants of Australia's HEXP using the latest and longest available data series. Second, this novel study investigates several alternative technology proxies (input and output measures), including economy-wide research and development expenditures, hospital research expenditures, mortality rate, and two technology indexes based on medical devices. We then apply the residual component method and the technology proxy approach to quantify the technology effects on HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that Australian aggregate healthcare is a normal good and a technical necessity with the income elasticity estimates ranging from 0.51 to 0.97, depending on the model. The estimated technology effects on HEXP falling in the 0.30-0.35 range and mimicking those in the literature using the US data, reinforce the global spread of healthcare technology. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of policies and institutions on health expenditures for a large panel of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries for the period of 2000-2010. A set of 20 policy and institutional indicators developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development are integrated into a theoretically motivated econometric framework, alongside control variables related to demographic (dependency ratio) and non-demographic (income, prices and technology) drivers of health expenditures per capita. Although a large share of cross-country differences in public health expenditures can be explained by demographic and economic factors (around 71%), cross-country variations in policies and institutions also have a significant influence, explaining most of the remaining difference in public health spending (23%). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the synthetic control method in contrast to commonly used difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation, in the context of a re-evaluation of a pay-for-performance (P4P) initiative, the Advancing Quality scheme. The synthetic control method aims to estimate treatment effects by constructing a weighted combination of control units, which represents what the treated group would have experienced in the absence of receiving the treatment. While DiD estimation assumes that the effects of unobserved confounders are constant over time, the synthetic control method allows for these effects to change over time, by re-weighting the control group so that it has similar pre-intervention characteristics to the treated group. We extend the synthetic control approach to a setting of evaluation of a health policy where there are multiple treated units. We re-analyse a recent study evaluating the effects of a hospital P4P scheme on risk-adjusted hospital mortality. In contrast to the original DiD analysis, the synthetic control method reports that, for the incentivised conditions, the P4P scheme did not significantly reduce mortality and that there is a statistically significant increase in mortality for non-incentivised conditions. This result was robust to alternative specifications of the synthetic control method. © 2015 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd., (© 2015 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

There has been little assessment of the role the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have had in progressing international development. There has been a 41% reduction in the under-five mortality rate worldwide from 1990 to 2011 and an acceleration in the rate of reduction since 2000. This paper explores why this has occurred, and results for all developing countries indicate that it is not due to more healthcare or public health interventions but is driven by a coincidental burst of economic growth. Although the MDGs are considered to have played an important part in securing progress against poverty, hunger and disease, there is very little evidence to back this viewpoint up. A thorough analysis of the successes and failures of the MDGs is therefore necessary before embarking on a new round of global goals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper analyzes the reasons for the scarce development of the private long-term care insurance market in Spain, and its relationship with health insurance. We are also interested in the effects the crisis has had both on the evolution of the demand for long-term care insurance and on the existence of regional disparities. We estimate bivariate probit models with endogenous variables using Spanish data from the Survey on Health and Retirement in Europe. Our results confirm that individuals wishing to purchase long-term care insurance are, in a sense, forced to subscribe a health insurance policy. In spite of this restriction in the supply of long-term care insurance contracts, we find its demand has grown in recent years, which we attribute to the budget cuts affecting the implementation of Spain's System of Autonomy and Attention to Dependent People. Regional differences in its implementation, as well as the varying effects the crisis has had across Spanish regions, lead to the existence of a crowding-in effect in the demand for long-term care insurance in those regions where co-payment is based on income and wealth, those that have a lower percentage of public long-term care beneficiaries, or those with a smaller share of cash benefits over total public benefits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sin good consumption entails health damage, which is in general not fully perceived by individuals, what results in its overconsumption. One way to tackle this problem is to tax these unhealthy goods. However, not all the individual choices that affect health status can be easily observed and effectively taxed by the government. This paper considers a setting where individuals can consume two types of sin goods that differ in their observability (taxability) by the government. As a benchmark, the first-best taxes for the observable and non-observable sin good are derived, considering homogeneous individuals. In the second-best setting, where observability on sin good consumption is limited, the rule for the taxable sin good is shown to depend on the degree of complementarity or substitutability with the unobservable sin good. Finally, redistributional considerations are incorporated by extending the analysis to a setting where individuals differ in their wealth and in their degree of misperception of the health damage caused by sin good consumption. Policy implications are illustrated considering physical inactivity and illicit drugs as examples of non-taxable sin goods, while alcohol, tobacco, fat and sugar account for the taxable sin goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For products such as tobacco and junk food, where policy interventions are often designed to decrease consumption, affected consumers gain utility from improvements in lifetime health and longevity but also lose utility associated with the activity of consuming the product. In the case of anti-smoking policies, even though published estimates of gross health and longevity benefits are up to 900 times higher than the net consumer benefits suggested by a more direct willingness-to-pay estimation approach, there is little recognition in the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness literature that gross estimates will overstate intrapersonal welfare improvements when utility losses are not netted out. This paper presents a general framework for analyzing policies that are designed to reduce inefficiently high consumption and provides a rule of thumb for the relationship between net and gross consumer welfare effects: where there exists a plausible estimate of the tax that would allow consumers to fully internalize health costs, the ratio of the tax to the per-unit long-term cost can provide an upper bound on the ratio of net to gross benefits., (Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Populations' structures and sizes can be a result of healthcare policy decisions. We use a two-period theoretical framework and a dynamic microsimulation model to examine the consequences of this assertion on the appraisal of alternative health policy options. Results show that standard welfare-in-health measures are sensitive to changes in populations' sizes, in that taking into account the (virtual) existence of the dead can alter the ranking of policy options. Disregarding differences in the survivals induced by alternative policies can bias programmes' ranking in favour of less live-saving policies. The paper alerts on the risk of policy misranking by the use of ex-post cross-sectional analyses, neglecting deaths occurring in the past as well as counterfactual deaths in alternative policy scenarios., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Policy makers in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly looking to develop 'evidence-based' frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. This paper synthesises and appraises the literature on methodological frameworks--which incorporate economic evaluation evidence--for the purpose of setting healthcare priorities in LMICs. A systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, Econlit and PubMed identified 3968 articles with a further 21 articles identified through manual searching. A total of 36 papers were eligible for inclusion. These covered a wide range of health interventions with only two studies including health systems strengthening interventions related to financing, governance and human resources. A little under half of the studies (39%) included multiple criteria for priority setting, most commonly equity, feasibility and disease severity. Most studies (91%) specified a measure of 'efficiency' defined as cost per disability-adjusted life year averted. Ranking of health interventions using multi-criteria decision analysis and generalised cost-effectiveness were the most common frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. Approximately a third of studies discussed the affordability of priority interventions. Only one study identified priority areas for the release or redeployment of resources. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for local capacity to conduct evaluations (including economic analysis) and empowerment of local decision-makers to act on this evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to assess the impact on citizens' well-being of fiscal discipline imposed by the central government on subnational governments. Because healthcare policies involve strategic interactions between different layers of governments in many different countries, we focus on a particular dimension of well-being, namely citizens' health. We model fiscal discipline by considering government expectations of future deficit bailouts from the central government. We then study how these bailout expectations affect the expenditure for healthcare policies carried out by decentralized governments. To investigate this issue, we separate efficient health spending from inefficiencies by estimating an input requirement frontier. This allows us to assess the effects of bailout expectations on both the structural component of health expenditure and its deviations from the 'best practice'. The evidence from the 15 Italian ordinary statute regions (observed from 1993 to 2006) points out that bailout expectations do not significantly influence the position of the frontier, thus not affecting citizens' health. However, they do appear to exert a remarkable impact on excess spending., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Complex interventions, involving interlinked packages of care, challenge the application of current methods of economic evaluation that focus on measuring only health gain. Complex interventions may be problematic on two levels. The complexity means the intervention may not fit into one of the current appraisal systems, and/or maximising health is not the only objective. This paper discusses the implications of a programme of work that focused on clinical genetics services, as an example of a complex intervention, and aimed to identify the following: the attributes that comprise both health and non-health aspects of benefits and whether it is possible to evaluate such an intervention using current National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence appraisal processes. Genetic services and tests are a good example of a complex intervention and have broader objectives than just health gain, which may usefully be measured using the concept related to capability, which we have called 'empowerment'. Further methodological work is required to identify the trade-off between non-health (empowerment) and health benefits for other complex interventions. We do not advocate a move away from QALY maximisation but do suggest that there is a need for a more considered approach that can take account of the perceived value for non-health attributes for some complex interventions., (Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper is the first to estimate the economic impact of a comprehensive smoking ban in all enclosed public places of work, on bars in Ireland. The demand in bars, represented by a monthly index of sales volume, is explained by relative prices in bars, prices of alcohol sold in off-licences and the aggregate retail sales (ARS) as a proxy for general economic activity and incomes. The smoking ban is included into the model as a step dummy and the modelling is done using ARIMAX strategy. The results show a reduction in the volume of sales in bars by -4.6% (p<0.01) following the ban., (Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In this paper, we present evidence on the health effects of a health insurance intervention targeted to poor children using data from a randomized policy experiment known as the Quality Improvement Demonstration Study. Among study participants, using a difference-in-difference regression model, we estimated a 9-12 and 4-9 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of wasting and having an infection, respectively, as measured by a common biomarker C-reactive Protein. Interestingly, these benefits were not apparent at the time of discharge; the beneficial health effects were manifest several weeks after release from the hospital., (Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In February 2004, in his assessment of the long-term financial viability of the NHS, Derek Wanless recommended the use of 'a consistent framework, such as the methodology developed by NICE, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions and initiatives across health care and public health'. One year later public health was added to NICE's remit and the new National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) was established, with amended statutory instruments to permit consideration of broader public sector costs when developing cost-effective guidance for public health. With the principle of 'a consistent framework' put forward by Wanless as the starting point, this paper provides an insight into the most challenging aspects of applying the principles of cost-effectiveness analysis in the public health context from the policymaker's perspective. It reflects on the long-term consequences of taking on responsibility for producing public health guidance on the Institute's overall approach to guidance development and describes the tension between striving for consistency and cross-evaluation comparability while ensuring that the methodological tools used are fit for the purpose of developing public health guidance.

The impact of administrative decentralisation on equity in health and health care is an important unresolved issue in the health policy debate. Predictions from the limited theoretical literature and the relevant empirical research are both insufficient to draw any firm conclusions. Many countries are nevertheless experimenting with decentralisation policies in the absence of research evidence. This paper presents an exploratory empirical analysis of decentralisation by investigating the spatial dimensions of health-related equity in Canada, a highly decentralised setting. Using data from the 2001 Canadian Community Health Survey, we apply a decomposition method of the Concentration Index to explore whether income-related inequalities in health and inequities in the use of health care are more likely to be due to gaps between rich and poor Canadian provinces rather than to differences between rich and poor individuals within them. The results show that within area variation is the most important source of income-related health inequality, while income-related inequities in health care use are mostly driven by differences between provinces.

A major characteristic of teenage smoking is the ability to 'bum' cigarettes from peers. To date, research into the determinants of teenage smoking has largely ignored the effects of this social market on the smoking decisions of teenagers. In this paper, we estimate the demand for cigarettes using data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey which distinguishes teens who primarily buy cigarettes from those who primarily borrow cigarettes. Our results demonstrate the ways in which higher cigarette prices and restrictions on smoking influence not only a teen's decision to smoke and the quantity of cigarettes smoked, but also the manner in which cigarettes are acquired. We show that current cigarette regulations are ineffective in reaching the group of light smokers who primarily obtain cigarettes through the social market, thus indicating that alternative measures should be explored in an effort to reduce the number of smokers in the future., (John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Long waiting times for inpatient treatment in the UK National Health Service have been a source of popular and political concern, and therefore a target for policy initiatives. In the London Patient Choice Project, patients at risk of breaching inpatient waiting time targets were offered the choice of an alternative hospital with a guaranteed shorter wait. This paper develops a simple theoretical model of the effect of greater patient choice on waiting times. It then uses a difference in difference econometric methodology to estimate the impact of the London choice project on ophthalmology waiting times. In line with the model predictions, the project led to shorter average waiting times in the London region and a convergence in waiting times amongst London hospitals., (Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The conventional wisdom says that because the cost of health care for the aged is more than that of the young at any time, there is a positive relationship between the aging or higher life expectancy of the population and aggregate health care spending. It is difficult, however, to find evidence to support this argument. We present a simple framework that shows how aging of the population may not necessarily increase the total cost of medical care over time or be observed across nations. This follows because numerous other factors that change with aging affect cost of care in ways that are not age-neutral. Such factors include age-specific shifts in morbidity and mortality, growth in income and insurance coverage, rising levels of education and changing technology. Consequently, the relative medical costs of the aged may indeed increase, at least for demographic reasons. Simultaneously, however, the costs of the young may decrease for the same reasons. The Israeli experience, used as a basis for a cursory empirical discussion of the issues, supports the line of reasoning presented in the paper., (Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

SUMMARY This paper investigates the technology cost structure in US physical therapy care. We exploit formal economic theories and a rich national data of providers to tease out implications for operational cost efficiencies. The 2008-2009 dataset comprising over 19 000 bi-weekly, site-specific physical therapy center observations across 28 US states and Occupational Employment Statistics data (Bureau of Labor Statistics) includes measures of output, three labor types (clinical, support, and administrative), and facilities (capital). We discuss findings from the iterative seemingly unrelated regression estimation system model. The generalized translog cost estimates indicate a well-behaved underlying technology structure. We also find the following: (i) factor demands are downwardly sloped; (ii) pair-wise factor relationships largely reflect substitutions; (iii) factor demand for physical therapists is more inelastic compared with that for administrative staff; and (iv) diminishing scale economies exist at the 25%, 50%, and 75% output (patient visits) levels. Our findings advance the timely economic understanding of operations in an increasingly important segment of the medical care sector that has, up-to-now (because of data paucity), been missing from healthcare efficiency analysis. Our work further provides baseline estimates for comparing operational efficiencies in physical therapy care after implementations of the 2010 US healthcare reforms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, there has been little examination of the problems associated with conducting economic evaluation for interventions designed to contain antimicrobial resistance. There are two quite different types of intervention aimed at containing antimicrobial resistance: interventions which are designed to avoid the emergence of resistant organisms; and interventions that are designed to avoid the transmission of resistance organisms. Four aspects of economic evaluation where the ease of assessment might be expected to differ across evaluations for these different types of intervention are examined: problems associated with the identification of diffuse impacts, problems associated with comparing current and future impacts, problems associated with uncertainty, and problems associated with difficulties in measurement and valuation. The paper suggests that it may be much easier to conduct rigorous economic evaluations for interventions designed to avoid transmission of resistance, than for those intended to avoid emergence. Unfortunately, the transmission policies, which are likely to be the easiest to evaluate, are not likely to produce an optimal long-term outcome given the apparent irreversibility of much resistance and the potentially severe harms which could be imposed as a result. Given the desirability of avoiding a scenario where, in the evidence-based medicine culture, the most rigorously evaluated policies are followed even though they may be less important, there is the need to consider carefully what, and how, economic evaluation should be conducted in the area of antimicrobial resistance. It is suggested that research should focus on the use of modelling as a means of evaluating optimal policy responses and on trying to resolve some of the difficulties associated with measurement and valuation., (Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Senegal is the only African country where sex work is legal and regulated by a health policy. Senegalese female sex workers (FSWs) are required to register with a health facility and to attend monthly routine health checks aimed at testing and treating sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Compliance to those routine visits is recorded on a registration card that must be carried by FSWs in order to avoid sanctions in case of police arrests. Although this policy was first introduced in 1969 to limit the spread of STIs, there is no evidence so far of its impact on FSWs' health and well-being. The paper aims to fill this gap by exploiting a unique data set of registered and unregistered Senegalese FSWs. Using propensity score matching, we find that registration has a positive effect on FSWs' health. However, we find that registration reduces FSWs' subjective well-being. This finding is explained by the fact that registered FSWs are found to engage in more sex acts, in riskier sex acts, have less social support from their peers, and are more likely to experience violence from clients and police officers. We prove that those results are robust to the violation of the conditional independence assumption, to misspecification of the propensity score model, and that covariate balance is achieved. The results suggest that more efforts should be deployed to reduce the stigma associated with registration and to address the poor well-being of FSWs, which is counterproductive to HIV prevention efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government investment in preparing for pandemics has never been more relevant. The COVID‐19 pandemic has stimulated debate regarding the trade‐offs societies are prepared to make between health and economic activity. What is not known is: (1) how much the public in different countries are prepared to pay in forgone GDP to avoid mortality from future pandemics; and (2) which health and economic policies the public in different countries want their government to invest in to prepare for and respond to the next pandemic. Using a future‐focused, multi‐national discrete choice experiment, we quantify these trade‐offs and find that the tax‐paying public is prepared to pay $3.92 million USD (Canada), $4.39 million USD (UK), $5.57 million USD (US) and $7.19 million USD (Australia) in forgone GDP per death avoided in the next pandemic. We find the health policies that taxpayers want to invest in before the next pandemic and the economic policies they want activated once the next pandemic hits are relatively consistent across the countries, with some exceptions. Such results can inform economic policy responses and government investment in health policies to reduce the adverse impacts of the next pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contains a review of the impact of health economics on health policy in England during the past 25 years. Some health economists have expressed disappointment with the scale of the impact that health economics has had on policy but the record set out below suggests that there is modest cause for celebration. That is not to say that there is cause for complacency. There is still a long way to go before all important health policies are based on sound economics reasoning and evidence. The paper begins with some definitions and background; it covers nine areas of health policy, and health policy making, where past impacts of health economics have been postulated; it covers briefly the reciprocal impact of health policy on health economics; and it concludes with a discussion about the findings.

The debate on tobacco and fat taxes often treats smoking and eating as independent behaviors. However, the available evidence shows that they are interdependent, which implies that policies against smoking or obesity may have larger scope than expected. To address this issue, we propose a dynamic rational model where eating, smoking, and physical exercise are simultaneous choices that jointly affect body weight and addiction to smoking. Focusing on direct and cross-price effects, we study the impact of tobacco and food taxes, and we show that in both cases a single policy tool can reduce both smoking and body weight. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) has an extensive literature documenting positive effects on infant health outcomes, specifically preterm birth, low birthweight, small size for gestational age, and infant mortality. However, existing studies focus on average effects for these relatively infrequent outcomes, thus providing no evidence for how WIC affects those at greatest risk of negative infant health outcomes. Our study focuses on documenting how WIC's infant health effects vary by level of risk. In doing so, we leverage a uniquely rich database describing maternal and infant outcomes and risk factors. Additionally, we use high dimensional data to generate predictions of risk and combine these predictions with the novel double machine learning method to stratify the effects of WIC by predicted risk. Our estimates of WIC's average treatment effects align with those in the existing literature. More importantly, we document significant variation in the effects of WIC on infant health by predicted risk level. Our results show that WIC is most beneficial among those at greatest risk of poor outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Airborne transmission of the COVID‐19 virus increased the need for health policies to reduce transmission in congregate settings associated with minimal risk before the pandemic. While a large literature estimates tradeoffs between policies designed to reduce negative health outcomes, no empirical research addresses consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for health policies designed to reduce airborne virus transmission. Using survey data from 1381 fans of professional sports, we estimate consumers' WTP for reduced likelihood of coronavirus transmission through mask and social distancing policies using a stated preference approach. The results indicate increased attendance likelihood if the venue requires masks and limits attendance, with significant heterogeneity in WTP across risk scenarios and sports. We characterize consumers as casual fans who prefer a mask requirement but are indifferent to capacity constraints, strong fans who are anti‐maskers and prefer capacity constraints, and a second group of casual fans with positive WTP under both mask and limited capacity requirements. For example, casual fans' WTP for masking, $38 per National Basketball Association (NBA) game attended, is more than double their WTP for capacity constraints only. Strong fans' WTP for attending capacity constrained NBA games was $490, more than 400% higher than the pre‐pandemic average WTP of $105. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soda taxes are implemented in several cities across the United States (US) with the aim of reducing sugar intake from sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Sugar is linked to obesity and to higher risk of diabetes and cardiovascular conditions. Sodas are targeted with these taxes since they are the main source of sugar for consumers in the US. In presence of potential substitutes, the policy can be undermined by consumers changing their sources of sugar. We examine the heterogeneous effects of the 2017 Philadelphia soda tax on purchases of other items containing sugar. We present an empirical evaluation focusing on the potential substitution toward additional sugary foods in Philadelphia and counties bordering Philadelphia. We find an increase in sugar from purchases of sweetened foods of about 4.3% following the introduction of the tax in Philadelphia and of 3.7% in the neighboring localities. The substitution to sugary foods in Philadelphia offsets 19% of the decrease of sugar from SSBs. Additionally, we find that the substitution offsets 37% of the decrease of sugar from SSBs when including counties bordering Philadelphia. These results suggest that while SSB taxes might be effective at lowering consumption of SSBs, substitution patterns may limit the effectiveness of the tax to reduce overall sugar intake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]