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We study the welfare impacts of illness shocks on rural agricultural households in the semi-arid tropical and humid eastern regions of India. These regions are characterized by rainfed agriculture, missing markets for credit and insurance, and limited access to publicly funded healthcare infrastructure. We find that illness shocks increase households' medical expenditures and reduce wage income. However, aggregate non-medical, food, and non-food consumption expenditures are insensitive to illness shocks. Disaggregating illness by the age and the gender of the household members, we observe that illness in male children leads to the largest increase in medical expenditure, and illness in prime-aged adults leads to the largest decline in per-capita wage earnings. We also find illness shocks leading to changes in household dietary diversity, higher travel expenditures, and a compensating reduction in spending on education and entertainment. Analysis of risk-coping strategies reveals that households rely on transfers from kinship networks and loans from informal sources like local moneylenders to smooth consumption. While large landowners rely on gifts from kinship networks, landless and smallholders increase borrowings from informal sources., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Economists originally developed methods to assess financial catastrophe using total or aggregate out-of-pocket health spending. Aggregate out-of-pocket health spending is financially catastrophic when it exceeds a fixed proportion (i.e., threshold) of a household's total income or expenditure in a given period. However, these methods are now applied to assess financial catastrophe in disease- or service-specific rather than aggregate out-of-pocket health spending without using disease- or service-specific thresholds. This paper argues that not using disease- or service-specific thresholds for such assessments is misleading and underestimates the burden of financial catastrophe, especially among households from poorer backgrounds. It then proposed disease- or service-specific catastrophic payment thresholds, applied them to Nigeria and found that financial catastrophe was underestimated for the five service groups considered. The paper stresses the importance of using disease- or service-specific thresholds and avoiding unadjusted thresholds, which may leave poorer households behind as financially protected., (© 2024 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

New technologies may displace existing, higher-value care under a fixed budget. Countries aim to curtail adoption of low-value technologies, for example, by installing cost-effectiveness thresholds. Our objective is to estimate the opportunity cost of hospital care to identify a threshold value for the Netherlands. To this aim, we combine claims data, mortality data and quality of life questionnaires from 2012 to 2014 for 11,000 patient groups to obtain quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) outcomes and spending. Using a fixed effects translog model, we estimate that a 1% increase in hospital spending on average increases QALY outcomes by 0.2%. This implies a threshold of €73,600 per QALY, with 95% confidence intervals ranging from €53,000 to €94,000 per QALY. The results stipulate that new technologies with incremental cost effectiveness ratios exceeding the Dutch upper reference value of €80,000 may indeed displace more valuable care., (© 2019 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Practice variation in publicly financed long-term care (LTC) may be inefficient and inequitable, similarly to practice variation in the health care sector. Although most OECD countries spend an increasing share of their gross domestic product on LTC, it has received comparatively little attention to date compared with the health care sector. This paper contributes to the literature by assessing and comparing regional practice variation in both access to and use of institutional LTC and investigating its relation with income and out-of-pocket payment. For this, we have access to unique individual-level data covering the entire Dutch population. Even though we found practice variation in the use of LTC once access was granted, the variation between regions was still relatively small compared with international standards. In addition, we showed how a co-payment measure could be used to reduce practice variation across care office regions and income classes making the LTC system not only more efficient but also more equitable., (© 2019 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Hospital-physician integration has substantially grown in the United States for the past decade, particularly in certain medical specialties, such as oncology. Yet evidence is scarce on the relation between integration and outpatient specialty care use and spending. We analyzed the impact of oncologist integration on outpatient provider-administered chemotherapy use and spending in Medicare, where prices do not depend on providers' integration status or negotiating power. We addressed oncologists' selective integration and patients' nonrandom choice of oncologists using an instrumental variables method. We found that integrated oncologists reduced the quantity of outpatient chemotherapy drugs but used more expensive treatments. This led to an increase in chemotherapy-drug spending after integration. These findings suggest that changes in treatment patterns-treatment mix and quantity-may be an important mechanism by which integration increases spending. We also found that integration increased spending on chemotherapy administration (the act of injection). This is because integration shifted billing of chemotherapy to hospital outpatient departments, where Medicare payments for chemotherapy administration are higher than those in physician offices. As integration increases, efforts should continue to assess how integration influences patient care and explore policy options to ensure desirable outcomes from integration., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

We use novel longitudinal data from 19 monthly waves of the Singapore Life Panel to examine the short-term dynamics of the effects health shocks have on household health and nonhealth spending and income by the elderly. The health shocks we study are the occurrence of new major conditions such as cancer, heart problems, and minor conditions (e.g., diabetes and hypertension). Our empirical strategy is based on an event study approach that exploits unanticipated changes in health status through the diagnosis of new health conditions. We find that major shocks have large and persistent effects whereas minor shocks have small and mainly contemporaneous effects. We find that household income reduces following a major shock for males but not females. Major health shocks lead to a decrease in households' nonhealth expenditures that is particularly pronounced for cancer and stroke sufferers, driven largely by reductions in leisure spending. The financial impact of major shocks on medical saving account balances occurs to those without private health insurance, whereas the impact is on cash balances for privately insured individuals., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper estimates the income elasticity of government pharmaceutical spending and assesses the simultaneous effect of such spending on gross domestic product (GDP). Using a panel dataset for 136 countries from 1995 to 2006, we employ a two-step instrumental variable procedure where we first estimate the effect of GDP on public pharmaceutical expenditure using tourist receipts as an instrument for GDP. In the second step, we construct an adjusted pharmaceutical expenditure series where the response of public pharmaceutical expenditure to GDP is partialled out and use this endogeneity adjusted series as an instrument for pharmaceutical expenditure. Our estimations show that GDP has a strong positive impact on pharmaceutical spending with elasticity in excess of unity in countries with low spending on pharmaceuticals and countries with large economic freedom. In the second step, we find that when the quantitatively large reverse effect of GDP is accounted for, public pharmaceutical spending has a negative effect on GDP per capita particularly in countries with limited economic freedom., (© 2018 The Authors Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Theory suggests that the medical costs of obesity should be passed on to obese workers, in the form of lower wages, whenever health coverage is a part of employee compensation. In contrast to existing work on this topic, this paper illustrates that the medical expenditures caused by obesity among working adults are relatively small and that wage offsets should therefore be difficult to detect. The paper supports this claim by exploiting the variation provided by the Affordable Care Act's employer mandate. Findings suggest that obese workers tend to bear the approximate cost of their medical expenditures via lower wages. However, the observed effects are often insignificantly different from zero., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper investigates the variation in the effects of various determinants on the per capita health-care expenditure. A total of 28 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries are studied over the period 1990-2012, employing an instrumental variable quantile regression method for a dynamic panel model with fixed effects. The results show that the determinants of per capita health-care expenditure growth, involving the growth of lagged health spending, of per capita gross domestic product (GDP), of physician density, of elderly population, of life expectancy, of urbanization, and of female labor force participation, do vary with the conditional distribution of the health-care expenditure growth, while the changing patterns are dissimilar. Moreover, we show that Baumol's model of "unbalanced growth" has a significantly positive effect on per capita health spending growth, and its effect is quite stable over the entire distribution. However, the correlation between the components (wage growth and labor productivity growth) of the "Baumol variable" and health expenditure growth is more varied. As a comparison, only the growth of lagged health spending, per capita GDP, and the Baumol variable (or its components) are found related to health spending growth in conditional mean regressions. The prediction results were also quite different between the quantile regression dynamic panel instrumental variable models and linear panel data models. More attention needs to be paid to the varying influence of determinants in health expenditure study., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Copayments for primary care services may lead to decreased access to and underconsumption of necessary health care for vulnerable patient groups, such as adolescents. In Norway, in 2010, adolescents aged 12 to 15 years were exempted from copayments for general practitioner (GP) services, and the aim of this study is to estimate whether being exempted from copayments led to increases in GP visits. We apply the synthetic control method using the elastic net regression as a data-driven approach to construct a relevant counterfactual from our pool of age groups not affected by the reform. Data on the number of GP consultations for males and females from 2006 to 2013 is obtained from the Norwegian Health Economics Administration. Our findings suggest that exempting adolescents from copayments increased the number of per person GP consultations by 22.1% among females and 13.8% among males. This indicates that adolescents between the ages of 12 and 15 were sensitive to copayments before the reform and females more so than males., (Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Risk adjustment is instituted to counter risk selection by accurately equating payments with expected expenditures. Traditional risk-adjustment methods are designed to estimate accurate payments at the group level. However, this generates residual risks at the individual level, especially for high-expenditure individuals, thereby inducing health plans to avoid those with high residual risks. To identify an optimal risk-adjustment method, we perform a comprehensive comparison of prediction accuracies at the group level, at the tail distributions, and at the individual level across 19 estimators: 9 parametric regression, 7 machine learning, and 3 distributional estimators. Using the 2013-2014 MarketScan database, we find that no one estimator performs best in all prediction accuracies. Generally, machine learning and distribution-based estimators achieve higher group-level prediction accuracy than parametric regression estimators. However, parametric regression estimators show higher tail distribution prediction accuracy and individual-level prediction accuracy, especially at the tails of the distribution. This suggests that there is a trade-off in selecting an appropriate risk-adjustment method between estimating accurate payments at the group level and lower residual risks at the individual level. Our results indicate that an optimal method cannot be determined solely on the basis of statistical metrics but rather needs to account for simulating plans' risk selective behaviors., (Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In 1999, Zweifel, Felder, and Meiers questioned conventional wisdom on ageing and healthcare expenditure (HCE). According to these authors, the positive association between age and HCE is due to an increasing age-specific mortality and the high cost of dying. After a weighty academic debate, a new consensus was reached on the importance of proximity to death when analysing HCE. Nevertheless, the influence of individual health status remains unknown. The objective of our study is to analyse the influence individual health status has on HCE, when compared to proximity to death and demographic effects and considering a comprehensive view of healthcare services and costs. We examined data concerning different HCE components of N = 61,473 persons aged 30 to 95 years old. Using 2-part models, we analysed the probability of use and positive HCE. Regardless of the specific group of healthcare services, HCE at the end of life depends mainly on the individual health status. Proximity to death approximates individual morbidity when it is excluded from the model. The inclusion of morbidity generally improves the goodness of fit. These results provide implications for the analysis of ageing population and its impact on HCE that should be taken into account., (Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The cost of generating a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) within a National Health Service provides an approximation of the average opportunity cost of funding decisions. This information can be used to inform a cost-effectiveness threshold. The aim of this paper is to estimate the cost per QALY at the Spanish National Health Service. We exploit variation across 17 regional health services and the exogenous changes in expenditure that took place as a consequence of the economic crisis over 5 years of data. We conduct fixed effect models and use an instrumental variable approach to test for potential remaining endogeneity. Our results show that health expenditure has a positive and significant effect on population health, with an average spending elasticity of 0.07. This translates into a cost per QALY of between 22,000€ and 25,000€. These values are below the cost-effectiveness threshold figure of 30,000€ commonly cited in Spain., (Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

States choose to provide Medicaid coverage via managed care or traditional fee-for-service. Managed care provided by private insurers poses higher contracting costs and information asymmetry than traditional fee-for-service but potentially improves efficiency and reduces spending. Evaluating the effect of managed care on Medicaid spending is challenging because adoption of managed care is nonrandom and may be driven by local economic shocks that simultaneously affect Medicaid spending. This study implements a dynamic panel framework to estimate the effect of managed care enrollment on spending levels and program design. Results show reductions in Medicaid spending larger than previously found in cross-state studies: A 10% increase of managed care enrollment reduces state Medicaid spending by 2.94%, or approximately $55 million. The study identifies which areas of spending are differentially affected by managed care enrollment and whether savings from managed care affect Medicaid design, specifically coverage generosity., (Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Despite its high political interest, the impact of removing user charges for health care in low-income settings remains a debatable issue. We try to clear up this contentious issue by estimating the short-term effects of a policy change that occurred in 2006 in Zambia, when 54 of 72 districts removed fees. We use a pooled synthetic control method in order to estimate the causal impact of the policy on health care use, the provider chosen, and out-of-pocket medical expenses. We find no evidence that user fee removal increased health care utilisation, even among the poorest group. However, we find that the policy is likely to have led to a substitution away from the private sector for those using care and that it virtually eliminated medical expenditures, thereby providing financial protection to service users. We estimate that the policy was equivalent to a transfer of US$3.2 per health visit for the 50% richest but of only US$1.1 for the 50% poorest., (© 2017 The Authors Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

This paper examines how domestic and international financing for HIV is, and ought to be, distributed. We build a theoretical framework that decomposes domestic and international financing for HIV into nonlinear functions of national income, HIV prevalence, and government effectiveness. We test this model, paying particular attention to nonlinearities and to problems of bad controls, multicollinearity, and reverse causality. Finally, we use the fitted values of quartile regressions to study how much countries could reasonably pay domestically and how much they should receive from donors. Worryingly, countries with higher financial means receive on average more aid per PLHIV than very poor ones, and countries with higher HIV prevalence receive on average less aid per people living with HIV. The normative analysis concludes that US$3.08 billion of fiscal space could be created in LIC and MIC. We identify the countries that could be allocated more aid., (Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The use of direct out-of-pocket payments to finance general practitioner (GP) care by the majority of the population in Ireland is unusual in a European context. Currently, approximately 40% of the population have means-tested access to free GP care, while the remainder must pay the full out-of-pocket cost. In this paper, we use data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) to examine the impact of the current system of public healthcare entitlements on GP utilisation among the older population. Using difference-in-difference propensity score matching methods, we find significant effects of changes in public healthcare entitlements on GP utilisation (i.e. introducing user fees reduces utilisation, while removing them increases utilisation). There is limited evidence of offset effects on other types of healthcare utilisation. The results have direct implications for current Irish health policy, and add to the international literature on the effects of insurance on healthcare utilisation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Managed care (MC) plans have been introduced to curb the ever increasing health care costs. Many previous studies on effectiveness lacked a long-term perspective; hence, the sustainability of (possible) savings remains unclear. Moreover, because of their incentives, MC plans are susceptible to under-provision of care. Most of these possibly negative effects can only be observed in the long-term. This paper analyzes the long-term effects of MC plans on cost savings, mortality, and the use of service, using administrative data from a large Swiss health insurer. The identification is based on a propensity-score matching approach, where individuals who enter an MC plan are compared over 10 years to individuals who remain in a standard fee-for-service plan. Cost savings are substantial and sustainable, and the mortality rate is lower in MC plans. Cost savings are driven by fewer consultations and fewer days in hospital care, although the probability of visiting a provider at least once per year is similar or even higher for persons in MC plans. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

After a period of steady decline, out-of-pocket (OOP) costs for general practitioner (GP) consultations in Australia began increasing in the mid-1990s. Following the rising community concerns about the increasing costs, the Australian Government introduced the Strengthening Medicare reforms in 2004 and 2005, which included a targeted incentive for GPs to charge zero OOP costs for consultations provided to children and concession cardholders (older adults and the poor), as well as an increase in the reimbursement for all GP visits. This paper examines the impact of those reforms using longitudinal survey and administrative data from a large national sample of women. The findings suggest that the reforms were effective in reducing OOP costs by an average of $A0.40 per visit. Decreases in OOP costs, however, were not evenly distributed. Those with higher pre-reform OOP costs had the biggest reductions in OOP costs, as did those with concession cards. However, results also reveal increases in OOP costs for most people without a concession card. The analysis suggests that there has been considerable heterogeneity in GP responses to the reforms, which has led to substantial changes in the fees charged by doctors and, as a result, the OOP costs incurred by different population groups. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The roles of income and technology as the major determinants of aggregate healthcare expenditure (HEXP) continue to interest economists and health policy researchers. Concepts and measures of medical technologies remain complex; however, income (on the demand side) and technology (on the supply side) are important drivers of HEXP. This paper presents analysis of Australia's HEXP, using time-series econometrics modeling techniques applied to 1971-2011 annual aggregate data. Our work fills two important gaps in the literature. First, we model the determinants of Australia's HEXP using the latest and longest available data series. Second, this novel study investigates several alternative technology proxies (input and output measures), including economy-wide research and development expenditures, hospital research expenditures, mortality rate, and two technology indexes based on medical devices. We then apply the residual component method and the technology proxy approach to quantify the technology effects on HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that Australian aggregate healthcare is a normal good and a technical necessity with the income elasticity estimates ranging from 0.51 to 0.97, depending on the model. The estimated technology effects on HEXP falling in the 0.30-0.35 range and mimicking those in the literature using the US data, reinforce the global spread of healthcare technology. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper investigates the long-run economic relationship between healthcare expenditure and income in the world using data on 167 countries over the period 1995-2012, collected from the World Bank data set. The analysis is carried using panel data methods that allow one to account for unobserved heterogeneity, temporal persistence, and cross-section dependence in the form of either a common factor model or a spatial process. We estimate a global measure of income elasticity using all countries in the sample, and for sub-groups of countries, depending on their geo-political area and income. Our findings suggest that at the global level, health care is a necessity rather than a luxury. However, results vary greatly depending on the sub-sample analysed. Our findings seem to suggest that size of income elasticity depends on the position of different countries in the global income distribution, with poorer countries showing higher elasticity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Public hospital reform is one priority area in the healthcare system reform that China launched in 2009. The Chinese government invested over $10bn for pilot projects in public hospital reform in rural China. However, little evidence exists on their effects. Using a quasi-natural experiment design, we evaluated the effects of a public hospital pilot project in Hubei province on inpatient spending. We obtained inpatient claims data from 1/1/2011 through 6/30/2013 for enrollees in the New Cooperative Medical Scheme in two counties: Danjiangkou, one of the pilot counties selected for reform in September 2012, and Laohekou, a similar, adjacent county serving as the control group. Using a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score weighting, we found that total inpatient spending increased ¥1160 (95% CI 1155-1166), out-of-pocket spending increased ¥385 (95% CI 382-389), length of stay increased 0.51 days (95% CI 0.50-0.52), but inpatient medication spending decreased ¥147 (95% CI 145-150), post-policy in Danjiangkou, relative to the control group. The overall reimbursement rate increased by 5.7 percentage points. One of the goals of the recent public hospital reform is to make inpatient services affordable to patients. We found that although patients spent less on inpatient medications, total out-of-pocket spending increased considerably after reform. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

At the end of 1998, China launched a government-run mandatory insurance program, the urban employee basic medical insurance (UEBMI), to replace the previous medical insurance system. Using the UEBMI reform in China as a natural experiment, this study identifies variations in patient cost sharing that were imposed by the UEBMI reform and examines their effects on the demand for healthcare services. Using data from the 1991-2006 waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we find that increased cost sharing is associated with decreased outpatient medical care utilization and expenditures but not with decreased inpatient care utilization and expenditures. Patients from low-income and middle-income households or with less severe medical conditions are more sensitive to prices. We observe little impact on patient's health, as measured by self-reported health status. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

With its rapid economic growth and fast changing lifestyle, China witnessed expansionary prevalence of obesity and overweight during the recent decades. This paper provides the first nationally representative estimate of the medical cost attributable to obesity and overweight in China. We improve upon the traditional estimation methodology (two-part model) by jointly adopting the instrumental variable approach and the panel data methods in order to correct for the potential endogeneity of body size and the individual heterogeneity in medical expenditure. Using longitudinal data from 2000-2009 China Health and Nutrition Surveys, we find that body size has a significant impact on the individual expected medical expenditure and the per capita medical cost attributable to obesity and overweight in a single medical event is estimated to be 6.18 Yuan, or 5.29% of the total personal medical expenditure. This translates to 24.35 billion Yuan annual cost on the national scale, accounting for 2.46% of China's national health care expenditure. The subsample analyses also show that such cost is higher for the urban, women, and better educated people and increases over time. Our results contribute to the literature on the economic impact of obesity in developing countries and bear policy implications on controlling the rising health care costs in China. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Korea's rapid population aging has been considered as a major factor in increase of healthcare expenditure (HCE). However, there were no clear empirical evidences in Korea that show if population aging has a significant impact on HCE. To examine the 'red herring' argument, this study used Heckman, two-part, and augmented model with Korean National Health Insurance claim data for the deceased and survivors of aged 20 years and over verified by Korean National Health Insurance Service between January 1 and December 31, 2010. Our results suggest that when time to death is controlled for as explanatory variable, HCE decreases as a function of age, and HCE during the terminal year increases as a function of time to death, and HCE in the last quarter of life decreases with age. Therefore, this study affirms that there is no age effect in Korea experiencing the most rapid population aging among Asian countries. An increase in the number of elderly, due to the aging of baby boomers, may not increase a share of HCE out of gross domestic product (GDP) in Korea. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Despite the claim that technology has been one of the most important drivers of healthcare spending growth over the past decades, technology variables are rarely introduced explicitly in cost equations. Furthermore, technology is often considered exogenous. Using 1996-2007 panel data on Swiss geographical areas, we assessed the impact of technology availability on per capita healthcare spending covered by basic health insurance whilst controlling for the endogeneity of health technology availability variables. Our results suggest that medical research, patent intensity and the density of employees working in the medical device industry are influential factors for the adoption of technology and can be used as instruments for technology availability variables in the cost equation. These results are similar to previous findings: CT and PET scanner adoption is associated with increased healthcare spending, whilst increased availability of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty facilities is associated with reductions in per capita spending. However, our results suggest that the magnitude of these relationships is much greater in absolute value than that suggested by previous studies that did not control for the possible endogeneity of the availability of technologies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Healthcare expenditure growth is affected by important unobserved common shocks such as technological innovation, changes in sociological factors, shifts in preferences, and the epidemiology of diseases. While common factors impact in principle all countries, their effect is likely to differ across countries. To allow for unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of common shocks, we estimate a panel data model of healthcare expenditure growth in 34 OECD countries over the years 1980 to 2012, where the usual fixed or random effects are replaced by a multifactor error structure. We address model uncertainty with Bayesian model averaging, to identify a small set of robust expenditure drivers from 43 potential candidates. We establish 16 significant drivers of healthcare expenditure growth, including growth in GDP per capita and in insurance premiums, changes in financing arrangements and some institutional characteristics, expenditures on pharmaceuticals, population ageing, costs of health administration, and inpatient care. Our approach allows us to provide robust evidence to policy makers on the drivers that were most strongly associated with the growth in healthcare expenditures over the past 32 years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Using cross-country data on gross domestic product and national expenditure on vaccines, we estimate and compare the income elasticity of vaccine expenditure and general curative healthcare expenditure. This study provides the first evidence on the national income elasticity of vaccination spending. Both fixed and random effects models are applied to data from 84 countries from 2010 to 2011. The income elasticities for healthcare expenditure and vaccine expenditure are 0.844 and 0.336, respectively. Despite vaccines' high cost-effectiveness, the national propensity to spend income on vaccines as income increases lags behind general health care. The low income elasticity of vaccine spending means that relying on economic growth alone will provide an unacceptably slow trajectory to achieving high vaccine coverage levels. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Health care expenditure in Germany shows clear regional differences. Such geographic variations are often seen as an indicator for inefficiency. With its homogeneous health care system, low co-payments and uniform prices, Germany is a particularly suited example to analyse regional variations. We use data for the year 2011 on expenditure, utilization of health services and state of health in Germany's statutory health insurance system. This data, which originate from a variety of administrative sources and cover about 90% of the population, are enriched with a wealth of socio-economic variables, data on pollutants, prices and individual preferences. State of health and demography explains 55% of the differences as measured by the standard deviation while all control variables account for a total of 72% of the differences at county level. With other measures of variation, we can account for an even greater proportion. A higher proportion of variation than usually supposed can thus be explained. Whilst this study cannot quantify inefficiencies, our results contradict the thesis that regional variations reflect inefficiency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper investigates the economic impact of health shocks on working-age adults in Vietnam during 2004-2008, using a fixed effects specification. Health shocks cover disability and morbidity and are measured by 'days unable to carry out regular activity', 'days in bed due to illness/injury', and 'hospitalization'. Overall, Vietnamese households are able to smooth total non-health expenditures in the short run in the face of a significant rise in out-of-pocket health expenditures. However, this is accomplished through vulnerability-enhancing mechanisms, especially in rural areas, including increased loans and asset sales and decreased education expenditures. Female-headed and rural households are found to be the least able to protect consumption. Results highlight the need to extend and deepen social protection and universal health coverage. © 2015 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd., (© 2015 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The long-term relationship between the general economy and healthcare expenditures has been extensively researched, to explain differences in healthcare spending between countries, but the midterm (i.e., business cycle) perspective has been overlooked. This study explores business cycle sensitivity in both public and private parts of the healthcare sector across 32 countries. Responses to the business cycle vary notably, both across spending sources and across countries. Whereas in some countries, consumers and/or governments cut back, in others, private and/or public healthcare buyers tend to spend more. We also assess long-term consequences of business cycle sensitivity and show that public cost cutting during economic downturns deflates the mortality rates, whereas private cut backs increase the long-term growth in total healthcare expenditures. Finally, multiple factors help explain variability in cyclical sensitivity. Private cost cuts during economic downturns are smaller in countries with a predominantly publicly funded healthcare system and more preventive public activities. Public cut backs during contractions are smaller in countries that rely more on tax-based resources rather than social health insurances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Evidence suggests that the share of Medicare managed care enrollees in a region affects the costs of treating traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries; however, little is known about the mechanisms through which these 'spillover effects' operate. This paper examines the relationship between Medicare managed care penetration and treatment intensity for FFS enrollees hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AMI. I find that increased Medicare managed care penetration is associated with a reduction in both the costs and the treatment intensity of FFS AMI patients. Specifically, as Medicare managed care penetration increases, FFS AMI patients are less likely to receive surgical reperfusion and mechanical ventilation and to experience an overall reduction in the number of inpatient procedures. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Since the 1990s, community-based health insurance (CBHI) schemes have been proposed to reduce the financial consequences of illness and enhance access to healthcare in developing countries. Convincing evidence on the ability of such schemes to meet their objectives is scarce. This paper uses randomized control trials conducted in rural Uttar Pradesh and Bihar (India) to evaluate the effects of three CBHI schemes on healthcare utilization and expenditure. We find that the schemes have no effect on these outcomes. The results suggest that CBHI schemes of the type examined in this paper are unlikely to have a substantial impact on access and financial protection in developing countries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper assesses the causal impact on child health of borrowing formal microcredit for Chinese rural households by exploiting a panel dataset (2000 and 2004) in a poor northwest province. Endogenous borrowing is controlled for in a dynamic regression-discontinuity design creating a quasi-experimental environment for causal inferences. There is causal relationship running from formal microcredit to improved child health in the short term, while past borrowing behaviour has no protracted impact on subsequent child health outcomes. Moreover, formal microcredit appears to be a complement to health insurance in improving child health through two mechanisms-it enhances affordability for out-of-pocket health care expenditure and helps buffer consumption against adverse health shocks and financial risk incurred by current health insurance arrangements. Government efforts in expanding health insurance for rural households would be more likely to achieve its optimal goals of improving child health outcomes if combined with sufficient access to formal microcredit., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans., (Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Technology is believed to be a major determinant of increasing health spending. The main difficulty to quantify its effect is to find suitable proxies to measure medical technological innovation. This paper's main contribution is the use of data on approved medical devices and drugs to proxy for medical technology. The effects of these variables on total real per capita health spending are estimated using a panel model for 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries covering the period 1981-2012. The results confirm the substantial cost-increasing effect of medical technology, which accounts for almost 50% of the explained historical growth of spending. Despite the overall net positive effect of technology, the effect of two subgroups of approvals on expenditure is significantly negative. These subgroups can be thought of as representing 'incremental medical innovation', whereas the positive effects are related to radically innovative pharmaceutical products and devices. A separate time series model was estimated for the USA because the FDA approval data in fact only apply to the USA, while they serve as proxies for the other OECD countries. Our empirical model includes an indicator of obesity, and estimations confirm the substantial contribution of this lifestyle variable to health spending growth in the countries studied., (Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Using a matched insurant-general practitioner panel data set, we estimate the effect of a general health-screening program on individuals' health status and health-care cost. To account for selection into treatment, we use regional variation in the intensity of exposure to supply-determined screening recommendations as an instrumental variable. We find that screening participation increases inpatient and outpatient health-care costs up to 2 years after treatment substantially. In the medium run, we find cost savings in the outpatient sector, whereas in the long run, no statistically significant effects of screening on either health-care cost component can be discerned. In sum, screening participation increases health-care cost. Given that we do not find any statistically significant effect of screening participation on insurants' health status (at any point in time), we do not recommend a general health-screening program. However, given that we find some evidence for cost-saving potential for the sub-sample of younger insurants, we suggest more targeted screening programs., (Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

This paper investigates the effects of China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) on health outcomes and healthcare expenditure of the elderly in rural China, using panel data from the 2005 and 2008 waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. We employ a strategy that combines propensity score matching with a difference-in-differences approach to address selection bias. Results show that the NCMS has significantly improved the elderly enrollees' activities of daily living and cognitive function but has not led to better self-assessed general health status. We find no significant effect of NCMS on mortality for the previously uninsured elderly in NCMS counties, although there is moderate evidence that it is associated with reduced mortality for the elderly enrollees. We also find that the elderly participants are more likely to get adequate medical services when sick, which provides a good explanation for the beneficial health effects of NCMS. However, there is no evidence that the NCMS has reduced their out-of-pocket spending. Furthermore, we also find that low-income seniors benefit more from NCMS participation in terms of health outcomes and perceived access to health care, suggesting that the NCMS helps reduce health inequalities among the rural elderly., (Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The medical-care sector often experiences changes in medical protocols and technologies that cause shifts in treatments. However, the commonly used medical-care price indexes reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics hold the mix of medical services fixed. In contrast, episode expenditure indexes, advocated by many health economists, track the full cost of disease treatment, even as treatments shift across service categories (e.g., inpatient to outpatient hospital). In our data, we find that these two conceptually different measures of price growth show similar aggregate rates of inflation over the 2003-2007 period. Although aggregate trends are similar, we observe differences when looking at specific disease categories., (Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Community-based health insurance in Lao People's Democratic Republic targets the informal workforce. Estimates of the program's impact on utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPs) were obtained using a case-comparison study of 3000 households (14 804 individuals) in urban and semi-urban areas. We used propensity score matching to control for bias on observables and to account for heterogeneity. We check the sensitivity of the results using a weighted regression combined with propensity score matching, which leads to doubly robust treatment effect estimates. The results are robust across the two approaches and show that the insured have significantly higher utilization, lower OOPs and lower incidence of catastrophic expenditures, and are less likely to employ coping mechanisms. However, coverage of the scheme is extremely low, indicating negligible population level impact. Furthermore, the results show that the scheme provides greater protection to the better off than to the poor: the poor are less likely to enrol, and among the poor who are enrolled, there has been no significant impact on utilization of outpatient services, total OOPs or catastrophic expenditures. We discuss the policy implications in the context of the international debate regarding the prospects for the role of community-based health insurance in national financing strategies., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The growth of healthcare expenditure provokes constant comments and discussions, as countries battle the issues on cost containment and cost effectiveness. Prior to 1978, medical institutions in China were either state-owned or were collective public hospitals. Since 1978, China has been trying to rebuild its healthcare system, which was destroyed during the 'cultural revolution', allowing private medical institutions to deliver healthcare services. As a result, private medical institutions have grown from 0% to 28.57% between 1978 and 2010. In this context, we compare outpatient healthcare expenditures between public and private medical institutions. The central problem of this comparison is that the choice of medical institution is endogenous. So we apply an instrumental variable (IV) framework utilizing geographic information (whether the closest medical institution is private) as the instrument while controlling for severity of health and other relevant confounding factors. Using China's Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance Survey 2008-2010, we found that there is no difference in expenditure between public and private medical institutions when IV framework is used. Our econometric tests suggest that our IV model is specified appropriately. However, the ordinary least square model, which is inconsistent in the presence of endogenous regressor(s), reveals that public medical institutions are more expensive., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Home health care expenditures were the fastest growing part of Medicare from 2001-2009, despite the implementation of prospective payment. Prior research has shown that home health agencies adopted two specific strategies to take advantage of Medicare policies: provide at least 10 therapy visits to get an enormous marginal payment and recertify patients for additional episodes. We study whether there is heterogeneity in the adoption of those strategic behaviors between home health agency entrants and incumbents and find that entrants were more likely to adopt strategic practice patterns than were incumbents. We also find that for-profit incumbents mimicked one of the practice patterns following entrants in the same market. Our findings suggest that it is important to understand the heterogeneity in providers' behavior and how firms interact with each other in the same market. These findings help explain the rapid rise in expenditures in the home health care market., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Limited evidence exists on whether expanding home care saves money overall or how much institutional long-term care can be reduced. This paper estimates the causal effect of Medicaid-financed home care services on the costs and utilization of institutional long-term care using Medicaid claims data. A unique instrumental variable was applied to address the potential bias caused by omitted variables or reverse effect of institutional care use. We find that the use of Medicaid-financed home care services significantly reduced but only partially offset utilization and Medicaid expenditures on nursing facility services. A $1000 increase in Medicaid home care expenditures avoided 2.75 days in nursing facilities and reduced annual Medicaid nursing facility costs by $351 among people over age 65 when selection bias is addressed. Failure to address selection biases would misestimate the substitution and offset effects., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Universal public finance (UPF)-government financing of an intervention irrespective of who is receiving it-for a health intervention entails consequences in multiple domains. First, UPF increases intervention uptake and hence the extent of consequent health gains. Second, UPF generates financial consequences including the crowding out of private expenditures. Finally, UPF provides insurance either by covering catastrophic expenditures, which would otherwise throw households into poverty or by preventing diseases that cause them. This paper develops a method-extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA)-for evaluating the consequences of UPF in each of these domains. It then illustrates ECEA with an evaluation of UPF for tuberculosis treatment in India. Using plausible values for key parameters, our base case ECEA concludes that the health gains and insurance value of UPF would accrue primarily to the poor. Reductions in out-of-pocket expenditures are more uniformly distributed across income quintiles. A variant on our base case suggests that lowering costs of borrowing for the poor could potentially achieve some of the health gains of UPF, but at the cost of leaving the poor more deeply in debt., (© 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley Ltd.)

When fitting an econometric model, it is well known that we pick up part of the idiosyncratic characteristics of the data along with the systematic relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. This phenomenon is known as overfitting and generally occurs when a model is excessively complex relative to the amount of data available. Overfitting is a major threat to regression analysis in terms of both inference and prediction. We start by showing that the Copas measure becomes confounded by shrinkage or expansion arising from in-sample bias when applied to the untransformed scale of nonlinear models, which is typically the scale of interest when assessing behaviors or analyzing policies. We then propose a new measure of overfitting that is both expressed on the scale of interest and immune to this problem. We also show how to measure the respective contributions of in-sample bias and overfitting to the overall predictive bias when applying an estimated model to new data. We finally illustrate the properties of our new measure through both a simulation study and a real-data illustration based on inpatient healthcare expenditure data, which shows that the distinctions can be important., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In this paper, we estimate a copula-based bivariate dynamic hurdle model of prescription drug and nondrug expenditures to test the cost-offset hypothesis, which posits that increased expenditures on prescription drugs are offset by reductions in other nondrug expenditures. We apply the proposed methodology to data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which have the following features: (i) the observed bivariate outcomes are a mixture of zeros and continuously measured positives; (ii) both the zero and positive outcomes show state dependence and inter-temporal interdependence; and (iii) the zeros and the positives display contemporaneous association. The point mass at zero is accommodated using a hurdle or a two-part approach. The copula-based approach to generating joint distributions is appealing because the contemporaneous association involves asymmetric dependence. The paper studies samples categorized by four health conditions: arthritis, diabetes, heart disease, and mental illness. There is evidence of greater than dollar-for-dollar cost-offsets of expenditures on prescribed drugs for relatively low levels of spending on drugs and less than dollar-for-dollar cost-offsets at higher levels of drug expenditures., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In difference in differences, a treatment is applied only to a qualified group at some time point. The qualification may be time-constant as in gender, or time-varying as in residential location. When the qualification is time-varying, there appear four groups: the newly qualified (in-movers), the already qualified (in-stayers), the newly disqualified (out-movers), and the already disqualified (out-stayers). A change in qualification may affect the response variable of interest even when the treatment effect is zero, which is an 'untreated moving effect'. Also, when the treatment effect is not zero, it may be different across the four groups. The conventional difference in differences fails to remove untreated moving effects and ignores the possible treatment effect heterogeneity across the groups. This paper shows how to account for untreated moving effects and proposes 'the effect on in-stayers' as the main effect of interest. Our proposal can be implemented with least squares estimator for panel models or with nonparametric methods. An empirical analysis is provided using Korean data for the effects of the basic elder pension on health-care expenditure., (Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The introduction of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) in rural China has been the most rapid and dramatic extension of health insurance coverage in the developing world in this millennium. The literature to date has mainly used the uneven rollout of NCMS across counties as a way of identifying its effects on access to care and financial protection. This study exploits the cross-county variation in NCMS generosity in 2006 and 2008 in the Ningxia and Shandong provinces to estimate the effect of coverage generosity on utilization and financial protection. Our results confirm earlier findings of NCMS being effective in increasing access to care but not in increasing financial protection. In addition, we find NCMS enrollees to be sensitive to the price incentives set in the NCMS design when choosing their provider and providers to respond by increasing prices and/or providing more expensive care., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In this study, respondents were randomly allocated to three variants of the payment card format and an open-ended format in order to test for convergent validity. The aim was to test whether preferences (as measured by willingness to pay additional tax) would be affected by framing the willingness-to-pay question differently. Results demonstrated that valuations were highly sensitive to whether respondents were asked to express their maximum willingness to pay per month or per year. Another important finding is that the introduction of a binary response filter prior to the payment card follow-up tends to eliminate the positive aspects of introducing a payment card and produces response patterns that are much in line with those of the open-ended contingent valuation format. However, although a filter will impact on the distribution of willingness-to-pay bids and on the rate of zero and protest bids, the overall impact on the welfare estimate is minor. The outcomes of this study indicate that valuations in the stated preference literature may be, at least in part, a function of the instrument designed to obtain the valuations., (Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)