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Resource-constrained delivery systems often have access issues, causing patients to wait a long time to see a provider. We develop theoretical and empirical models of wait times and apply them to primary care delivery by the U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Using instrumental variables to handle simultaneity issues, we estimate the effect of clinician supply on new patient wait times. We find that it has a sizable impact. A 10% increase in capacity reduces wait times by 2.1%. Wait times are also associated with clinician productivity, scheduling protocols, and patient access to alternative sources of care. The VHA has adopted our models to identify underserved areas as specified by the MISSION Act of 2018., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Spillovers can arise in markets with multiple purchasers relying on shared producers. Prior studies have found such spillovers in health care, from managed care to nonmanaged care populations-reducing spending and utilization, and improving outcomes, including in Medicare. This study provides the first plausibly causal estimates of such spillovers from Medicare Advantage (MA) to Traditional Medicare (TM) in the post-Affordable Care Act era using an instrumental variables approach. Controlling for health status and other potential confounders, we estimate that a one percentage point increase in county-level MA penetration results in a $64 (95% CI: $18 to $110) (0.7%) reduction in standardized per-enrollee TM spending. We find evidence for reductions in utilization both on the intensive and extensive margins, across a number of health care services. Our results complement and extend prior work that found spillovers from MA to TM in earlier years and under different payment policies than are in place today., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

We evaluate consumption responses to the non-linear Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit. We compare propensity-matched older patients with diabetes and Part D Standard or low-income-subsidy (LIS) coverage. We evaluate monthly adherence to branded oral anti-diabetics, with high end-of-year donut hole prices (>$200) for Standard patients and consistent, low (≤$6) prices for LIS. As an additional control, we examine adherence to generic anti-diabetics, with relatively low, consistent prices for Standard patients. If Standard patients are forward looking, they will reduce branded adherence in January, and LIS-Standard differences will be constant through the year. Contrary to this expectation, branded adherence is lower for Standard patients in January and diverges from LIS as the coverage year progresses. Standard-LIS generic adherence differences are minimal. Our findings suggest that seniors with chronic conditions respond myopically to the nonlinear Part D benefit, reducing consumption in response to high deductible, initial coverage and gap prices. Thus, when the gap is fully phased out in 2020, cost-related nonadherence will likely remain in the face of higher spot prices for more costly branded medications. These results contribute to studies of Part D plan choice and medication adherence that suggest that seniors may not make optimal healthcare decisions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Since January 2006 all Medicare beneficiaries have been eligible to obtain outpatient prescription drug coverage through private stand-alone drug plans (PDPs). We estimate a model of beneficiary demand for PDPs and use it to compute the loss of consumer surplus due to tightening PDP formularies to the level found in the Veterans Health Administration (VA). Under a generous assumption of cost savings attributed to increased bargaining leverage associated with exclusion of more drugs from formularies, we find the loss in consumer surplus to be smaller than the financial savings that could be shared between Medicare and beneficiaries. According to our estimates, Medicare beneficiaries could be compensated for the loss in consumer surplus associated with tighter PDP formularies with the savings generated by such formularies., (Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

The Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) came into existence in 2006 as part of the Medicare prescription drug benefit. It is the most popular plan type among Medicare drug plans and large numbers of plans are available to all beneficiaries. In this article we present the first analysis of beneficiary price sensitivity in the PDP market. Our estimate of elasticity of enrollment with respect to premium, -1.45, is larger in magnitude than has been found in the Medicare HMO market. This high degree of beneficiary price sensitivity for PDPs is consistent with relatively low product differentiation, low fixed costs of entry in the PDP market, and the fact that, in contrast to changing HMOs, beneficiaries can select a PDP without disrupting doctor-patient relationships.

Stand-alone outpatient prescription drug plans (PDPs), introduced in January 2006, have become the most popular source for coverage of outpatient prescription drugs under Medicare relative to other available Medicare plan types (e.g. Medicare Advantage drug plans). Using county-level enrollment figures from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services linked to other public sources, we study attribute substitution in beneficiary decision-making with respect to PDP enrollment. To do so, we relate county-level PDP market share to county-level political support for the administration implementing the new benefit (the Bush Administration), controlling for socio-demographic and market characteristics. We find statistically significant evidence that greater support for the Bush administration is associated with increased PDP market share.

The Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 created several new types of private insurance plans within Medicare, starting in 2006. Some of these plan types previously did not exist in the commercial market and there was great uncertainty about their prospects. In this paper, we show that statistical models and historical data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey can be used to predict the experience of new plan types with reasonable accuracy. This lays the foundation for the analysis of program modifications currently under consideration. We predict market share, risk selection, and stability for the most prominent new plan type, the stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plan (PDP). First, we estimate a model of consumer choice across Medicare insurance plans available in the data. Next, we modify the data to include PDPs and use the model to predict the probability of enrollment for each beneficiary in each plan type. Finally, we calculate mean-adjusted actual spending by plan type. We predict that adverse selection into PDPs will be substantial, but that enrollment and premiums will be stable. Our predictions correspond well to actual experience in 2006.