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Background: The most recent reports on global trends in neonatal mortality continue to show alarmingly slow progress on improvements in neonatal mortality rates, with sub-Saharan Africa still lagging behind. This emphasised the urgent need to innovatively employ alternative solutions that take into account the intricate complexities of neonatal health and the health systems in which the various strategies operate.Methods: In our first paper, we empirically explored the causes of the stagnating neonatal mortality in Uganda using a dynamic synthesis methodology (DSM) approach. In this paper, we completed the last three stages of DSM, which involved the development of a quantitative (simulation) model, using STELLA modelling software. We used statistical data to populate the model. Through brainstorming sessions with stakeholders, iterations to test and validate the model were undertaken. The different strategies and policy interventions that could possibly lower neonatal mortality rates were tested using what-if analysis. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the strategies that could have a great impact on neonatal mortality.Results: We developed a neonatal health simulation model (NEOSIM) to explore potential interventions that could possibly improve neonatal health within a health system context. The model has four sectors, namely population, demand for services, health of the mothers and choices of clinical care. It tests the effects of various interventions validated by a number of Ugandan health practitioners, including health education campaigns, free delivery kits, motorcycle coupons, kangaroo mother care, improving neonatal resuscitation and labour management skills, and interventions to improve the mothers health, i.e. targeting malaria, anaemia and tetanus. Among the tested interventions, the package with the highest impact on reducing neonatal mortality rates was a combination of the free delivery kits in a setting where delivery services were free and motorcycle coupons to take women to hospital during emergencies.Conclusions: This study presents a System Dynamics model with a broad and integrated view of the neonatal health system facilitating a deeper understanding of its current state and constraints and how these can be mitigated. A tool with a user friendly interface presents the dynamic nature of the model using 'what-if' scenarios, thus enabling health practitioners to discuss the consequences or effects of various decisions. Key findings of the research show that proposed interventions and their impact can be tested through simulation experiments thereby generating policies and interventions with the highest impact for improved healthcare service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Of the three million newborns that die each year, Uganda ranks fifth highest in neonatal mortality rates, with 43,000 neonatal deaths each year. Despite child survival and safe motherhood programmes towards reducing child mortality, insufficient attention has been given to this critical first month of life. There is urgent need to innovatively employ alternative solutions that take into account the intricate complexities of neonatal health and the health systems. In this paper, we set out to empirically contribute to understanding the causes of the stagnating neonatal mortality by applying a systems thinking approach to explore the dynamics arising from the neonatal health complexity and non-linearity and its interplay with health systems factors, using Uganda as a case study.Methods: Literature reviews and interviews were conducted in two divisions of Kampala district with high neonatal mortality rates with mothers at antenatal clinics and at home, village health workers, community leaders, healthcare decision and policy makers, and frontline health workers from both public and private health facilities. Data analysis and brainstorming sessions were used to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) depicting the causes of neonatal mortality, which were validated by local and international stakeholders.Results: We developed two CLDs for demand and supply side issues, depicting the range of factors associated with neonatal mortality such as maternal health, level of awareness of maternal and newborn health, and availability and quality of health services, among others. Further, the reinforcing and balancing feedback loops that resulted from this complexity were also examined. The potential high leverage points include special gender considerations to ensure that girls receive essential education, thereby increasing maternal literacy rates, improved socioeconomic status enabling mothers to keep healthy and utilise health services, improved supervision, and internal audits at the health facilities as well as addressing the gaps in resources (human, logistics, and drugs).Conclusions: Synthesis of theoretical concepts through CLDs facilitated our understanding and interpretation of the interactions and feedback loops that contributed to the stagnant neonatal mortality rates in Uganda, which is the first step towards discussing and exploring the potential strategies and their likely impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]