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Background: Lifetime risk for cardiovascular (CV) disease is high but predicting incident events on an individual level remains difficult. Single measurements of galectin-3, a marker of tissue fibrosis, predict mortality and new-onset heart failure (HF). Persistently elevated levels may indicate a clinically silent disease process., Objectives: Our aim was to establish the value of serial galectin-3 measurements to predict CV outcomes in the general population., Methods: Plasma galectin-3 was measured in the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) study at baseline and after ∼4 years. Changes in serial galectin-3 were expressed as categorical changes or absolute change from baseline and were related to subsequent outcome., Results: Serial galectin-3 was measured in 5958 subjects (mean age 49±12 years; 49% female). The median duration of follow-up was 8.3 years. Persistently elevated galectin-3 (defined as highest quartile at baseline and highest quartile during visit 2, n=757 subjects) was associated with a higher risk for new-onset HF, CV mortality, all-cause mortality, new-onset atrial fibrillation and CV events, compared with subjects with non-persistently elevated galectin-3. After multivariable adjustments for baseline characteristics, serial galectin-3 remained an independent predictor of new-onset HF (HR 1.85 (1.10-3.13); p=0.02) but not for other outcomes. Serial measurements provided more accurate prognostic value to predict new-onset HF, compared with a single baseline measurement (Harrell's C: 0.72 (0.68-0.75) vs 0.68 (0.65-0.72); p=0.002, respectively) with significant net reclassification., Conclusions: Persistently elevated galectin-3 predicts new-onset HF after adjustment for covariates, and serial measurements provide more accurate prognostic information compared with single determination of galectin-3. This may help to identify individuals who are at risk for incident HF and might provide a measure to monitor interventions., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objective: Experimental studies have shown that adrenomedullin (ADM) has an important role in circulatory homeostasis. Mid-regional pro-ADM (MR-proADM) is a stable form of ADM. Observational studies found an important association with age, body mass index and kidney function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic performance of MR-proADM in the general population, controlling for these potential confounders., Methods: 7903 subjects (mean age 49 ± 13 years, 49% male) from the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort with a median follow-up of 10.5 years were enrolled in a prospective cohort study., Results: Mean baseline MR-proADM was 0.39 ± 0.14 nmol/l. In cross-sectional analyses, age, blood pressure, C reactive protein, cystatin-C, N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide and urinary albumin excretion remained as independent determinants of MR-proADM. In prospective analyses, MR-proADM was associated with the primary endpoint (combined cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular morbidity), with event rates ranging from 8% in the lowest quintile to 45% in the highest quintile (p for trend <0.001) independent of age, sex, components of the Framingham risk score and other cardiovascular markers. Overall Net Reclassification Improvement against the Framingham risk score was 2.2%, which was non-significant. However, significant modification of the effect of MR-proADM on outcome by age was observed. In subjects aged ≤70 years (N=7475), 8.8% were correctly reclassified in a higher risk category (p=0.017) and 3.4% in a lower risk category (p<0.001). In subjects aged >70 years (N=428) there was no improvement of reclassification (p=0.32)., Conclusion: This study gives a detailed overview of the distribution of ADM in a general population and provides evidence that it is a potent and interesting biomarker in predicting cardiovascular events. These results seem especially applicable to younger subjects.