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Objective: The Multi-Ethnic New Zealand Study of Acute Coronary Syndromes (MENZACS) was established to investigate the drivers of secondary events after first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including addressing inequitable outcomes by ethnicity. Herein, the first clinical outcomes and prognostic modelling approach are reported., Methods: First, in 28 176 New Zealanders with first-time ACS from a national registry, a clinical summary score for predicting 1-year death/cardiovascular readmission was created using Cox regression of 20 clinical variables. This score was then calculated in the 2015 participant MENZACS study to represent clinical risk. In MENZACS, Cox regression was used to assess N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) as a prognostic marker for death/cardiovascular readmission in four models, adjusting for (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, ethnicity; (3) clinical summary score; (4) clinical summary score and ethnicity., Results: Of the 2015 MENZACS participants (mean age 61 years, 79% male, 73% European, 14% Māori, 5% Pacific people), 2003 were alive at discharge. Of the 2003, 416 (20.8%) experienced all-cause death/cardiovascular readmission over a median of 3.5 years. In a simple model, age, male sex, Māori ethnicity and NT-proBNP levels were significant predictors of outcome. After adjustment for the clinical summary score, which includes age and sex, NT-proBNP and ethnicity were no longer statistically significant: log 2 (NT-proBNP) hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.98 to 1.08, p=0.305; Māori ethnicity HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.62, p=0.084., Conclusions: In 2015 patients with first-time ACS, recurrent events were common (20.8%). Increasing NT-proBNP levels and Māori ethnicity were predictors of death/cardiovascular readmission, but not after adjustment for the 20 clinical risk factors represented by the clinical summary score., Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12615000676516., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JH is a full-time employee of Novo Nordisk Research Centre Oxford Ltd. KKP and AMR are on the Editorial Board for BMJ Heart., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To determine whether longitudinal left ventricular systolic function measured by Doppler tissue imaging (DTI) after exercise can identify early left ventricular dysfunction in asymptomatic patients with moderate-severe aortic stenosis., Design: Case-control study., Setting: Outpatient cardiology departments., Patients: 20 patients with aortic stenosis, with or without equivocal symptoms, a peak aortic valve velocity > or =3 m/s, and left ventricular ejection fraction >50% and 15 aged-matched normal controls., Interventions: Echocardiogram performed at rest and immediately after treadmill exercise., Main Outcome Measures: The peak systolic velocity of the lateral mitral annulus (S') by DTI at rest and immediately after exercise, exercise capacity, exercise systolic blood pressure and the plasma level of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)., Results: For patients with aortic stenosis, mean (SD) aortic valve area was 0.95 (0.3) cm(2). At rest, S' was similar for patients with aortic stenosis and controls, respectively (8.5 (1.5) vs 9.1 (1.8) cm/s, p = 0.15). However, after exercise, S' (12.2 (3.2) vs 17 (2.8) cm/s, p<0.001) and the increase in S' between rest and exercise (4 (3) vs 7.9 (1.5) cm/s, p<0.001) were lower in patients with aortic stenosis. In patients with aortic stenosis, a smaller increase in S' after exercise was associated with lower exercise capacity (r = 0.5, p = 0.02), a smaller increase in exercise systolic blood pressure (r = 0.6, p = 0.005) and higher plasma level of BNP (r = 0.66, p = 0.002)., Conclusion: In asymptomatic patients with moderate-severe aortic stenosis a lower than normal increase in peak systolic mitral annular velocity after treadmill exercise is a marker of early left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine clinical and echocardiographic predictors of outcome in a cohort of patients with Marfan's syndrome., Background: Serial echocardiographic measurements of aortic root dimensions are an important clinical method for monitoring patients with Marfan's syndrome. However, there are few data on the prognostic importance of echocardiographic variables for risk stratification and timing of aortic root replacement., Methods: In 89 consecutive patients with Marfan's syndrome (age range 1-54 years) clinical and serial echocardiographic data (n = 62) were evaluated as potential predictors of outcome (mean (range) follow up 4 (< 1-16) years). Aortic sinus diameter and an aortic ratio normalised for age and body surface area were examined using Kaplan-Meier life table and Cox regression analysis, with the end point defined as death or surgery for ascending aortic dissection and events defined as an end point or surgery for ascending aortic aneurysm., Results: Overall actuarial survival at two and five years was 96% and 92% and event free survival was 85% and 76%, respectively. There were five deaths due to aortic dissection, four patients survived surgery for ascending dissection, and nine underwent root replacement with a composite graft for ascending aneurysm. Those with aortic events were older (35 (12) v 25 (13) years, P = 0.007) and had greater initial aortic root dimensions (47 (14) v 33 (8) mm, P < 0.0001) and ratios (1.6 (0.5) v 1.3 (0.2), P < 0.0001). In the 62 patients with serial echocardiographic follow up, the rate of aortic root dilatation was more rapid in those with events (15 (17) v 0 (3)%/year, P < 0.0001). Utilising a Cox proportional hazards model, the groups with an initial aortic ratio > or = 1.3 or an annual change in aortic ratio > or = 5% had a relative risk of an aortic complication of 2.7 and 4.1, respectively (95% confidence limits 1.5 to 4.8 and 1.8 to 9.3). Only one of 31 patients with an initial aortic ratio of < 1.3 and a rate of change of < 5% had an event (five year event free survival 97%)., Conclusions: A low risk subgroup of patients with Marfan's syndrome can be identified as those with an aortic ratio < 1.3 and an annual change in aortic ratio of < 5%. These findings are helpful in optimising echocardiographic monitoring and risk stratification of patients with Marfan's syndrome.