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An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various topics within the issue including innovative technology, internet of intelligences (IOI), and serving for risk analysis online; addressing the risks posed by climate change on food security; and disaster risk analysis.

Drought poses a severe threat to terrestrial ecosystems' carbon sequestration function, which in turn affects regional sustainable development. Understanding its impact on carbon source/sink dynamics is crucial for addressing extreme climate change challenges. This study, based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model and soil heterotrophic respiration equation, the Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) of the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MRYRB) from 2001 to 2019 were estimated and utilized to characterize the vegetation carbon source/sink. Additionally, four factors, namely, average surface temperature (AST), root-zone soil moisture (RM), drought frequency (DF), and drought intensity (DI), were selected and a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was applied to assess the dominant factors influencing vegetation carbon source/sink dynamics at the spatial scale. The results indicated that: (1) MRYRB vegetation acted as a carbon sink, showing an increasing trend. Carbon sink was primarily located in Shaanxi's central region, while carbon source was primarily located in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi's northern part. (2) Both the extent and severity of drought in the MRYRB showed a mitigating trend, presenting a spatial distribution of high-intensity low-frequency and low-intensity high-frequency. (3) AST, RM, DF, and DI had larger effects on carbon source than carbon sink. AST dominated mainly in northern Shanxi and Shaanxi, RM in central Shaanxi and Gansu, while DI and DF were concentrated in central Shaanxi and northern Shanxi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are several air pollution issues that concern the international community at the regional and global level, including acid deposition, heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change. Governments at the regional and global levels have entered into various agreements in an effort to deal with these problems. This paper deals with two major global atmospheric change issues: stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change. The focus is on the policy responses of the United States to these global issues. The United States has signed and ratified international agreements to deal with both problems. The Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer have led to an effort in both developed and developing countries to phase out ozone depleting substances. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been signed and ratified by over 180 countries. The UNFCC contained no binding targets and timetables for emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the UNFCCC did contain targets and timetables for reductions of greenhouse gases on the part of developed countries. The United States has signed but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The United States has experienced some movement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the part of various levels of government as well as the private sector. The policy process is constantly informed by scientific research. In the case of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, much of this work is carried out under the auspices of international scientific panels. From a policy perspective, there is a great deal of interest in the use of indicators for assessing the scope and magnitude of these problems, both for fashioning policy responses as well as assessing the impact of adopted programs to reduce ozone depleting substances, and potentially, greenhouse gases. This paper will discuss some of the indicators used for stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

With the changes in the nature and the society, risks will inevitably change. It implies that, with the passage of time, some historical data would be invalid for probabilistic risk analysis. In this paper, a model to acquire the valid data is suggested, which is based on the Mann- Kendall test to detect abrupt change-point on time series data. What's more, the typhoon risk analysis in Guangdong Province, China is used as a case study to show how to apply the model. The valid data of the intensities of typhoons and the related losses in the province for the probabilistic risk analysis is obtained from the data during the time from 1984 to 2012. Comparing with the results based on the set of invalid data and the set of all collected data, the assessed risk based on the valid data is more reliable, which could reflect the dynamics of the typhoon risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Commission has published a Communication on the Precautionary Principle and a White Book on Governance. These provide us (as research civil servants of the Commission) an institutional framework for handling scientific information that is often incomplete, uncertain, and contested. But, although the Precautionary Principle is intuitively straightforward to understand, there is no agreed way of applying it to real decision-making. To meet this perceived need, researchers have proposed a vast number of taxonomies. These include ignorance auditing, type one-two-three errors, a combination of uncertainty and decision stakes through post-normal science and the plotting of ignorance of probabilities against ignorance of consequences. Any of these could be used to define a precautionary principle region inside a multidimensional space and to position an issue within that region. The rôle of anticipatory research is clearly critical but scientific input is only part of the picture. It is difficult to imagine an issue where the application of the Precautionary Principle would be non-contentious. From genetically-modified food to electro-smog, from climate change to hormone growth in meat, it is clear that: 1) risk and cost-benefit are only part of the picture; 2) there are ethical issues involved; 3) there is a plurality of interests and perspectives that are often in conflict; 4) there will be losers and winners whatever decision is made. Operationalisation of the Precautionary Principle must preserve transparency. Only in this way will the incommensurable costs and benefits associated with different stakeholders be registered. A typical decision will include the following sorts of considerations: 1) the commercial interests of companies and the communities that depend on them; 2) the worldviews of those who might want a greener, less consumerist society and/or who believe in the sanctity of human or animal life; 3) potential benefits such as enabling the world's poor to improve farming; 4) risks such as pollution, gene-flow, or the effects of climate change. In this paper we will discuss the use of a combination of methods on which we have worked and that we consider useful to frame the debate and facilitate the dialogue among stakeholders on where and how to apply the Precautionary Principle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of translating scientific information into timely and useful insights that inform policy and resource management decisions, despite the existence of uncertainties, is a difficult and challenging task.Policy-focused assessmentis one approach to achieving this end. It is an ongoing process that engages both researchers and end-users to analyze, evaluate and interpret information from multiple disciplines to draw conclusions that are timely and useful for decision makers. This paper discusses key characteristics of a policy-focused assessment process, including (1) ongoing collaboration between the research, assessment, and stakeholder communities; (2) a focus on stakeholder information needs; (3) multidisciplinary approaches; (4) use of scenarios to deal with uncertainties; and (5) evaluation of risk management options. We illustrate the particular challenge to assessors of providing the specific types of insights stakeholders need to effectively influence policy decisions. And we discuss the role that assessment can play in formulating an agenda for future research. Examples from the U.S. National Assessment of “The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States” are used to illustrate a policy-focused assessment process. For many of the participants, the first U.S. National Assessment was an extraordinary learning experience about how to develop better ways of conducting assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Water shortages and groundwater depletion are critical issues in the world, leading to unsustainable agricultural production and adverse ecological impacts. Here, the new Multifactor-Quantitative joint Prediction Model (MQPM) is developed to quantitatively predict the Groundwater Storage Anomalies (GWSA), which includes an annual multifactor module and a monthly quantitative module. The correlative coefficients from two modules between simulated GWSA and observed GWSA reach up to 0.98 and 0.87, respectively. Taking Beijing as an example, results show that GWSA trends before South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) (2005–2014) and after SNWD (2015–2018) are at a rate of −3.00 × 108 m3/yr and 1.95 × 108 m3/yr, respectively, which reflects the effectiveness of water diversion. Additionally, the predicted results show that GWSA from the multifactor module will increase to 45.97 × 108 m3 by 2028. The quantitative module designs four scenarios under different climate changes and policies, from which the predicted GWSA with values ranging from 28.49 × 108 m3 to 63.06 × 108 m3. For the latter module, the groundwater level will recover to ∼8.9 m up to 2028, combining multiple favorable conditions. Finally, factors consisting of water diversion, climate change, and water-saving policies have a vital influence on groundwater variations, and contributions of these factors to the GWSA account for 46%, 27%, and 27%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Qilian Mountain as an important ecological security barrier and water connotation area in China, Research on its vegetation NPP driving mechanism can provide reference for ecological security protection in northwest China. Based on Qilian Mountain MOD17A3 remote sensing data from 2000-2019, using one-dimensional linear regression, partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, residual analysis and land transfer matrix. The spatial and temporal dynamics of vegetation NPP in the Qilian Mountain and its correlation with precipitation, temperature and human activities were analyzed, and quantified the effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation NPP. The results show that: 1) from 2000 to 2019 vegetation NPP in Qilian Mountains had an overall fluctuating upward trend and decreased from east to west, with a multi-year average of 138.54 g C·m−2·a−1 and an average annual increase of 1.67 g C·m−2·a−1; 2) vegetation NPP was positively correlated with precipitation and temperature, with precipitation having a more significant effect on it; 3) the area of grassland in LUCC increased the most and contributed 183.12% to vegetation NPP, while the area of unused land decreased the most and its contribution to vegetation NPP was −119.6%; 4) In the vegetation recovery area, climate change and human activities explained 89% and 11% of the vegetation recovery, respectively. While in the vegetation degradation area, they explained 22% and 78% of the vegetation degradation, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vietnam is a densely populated country, with the majority of its impoverished people living in rural areas. These people lack facilities and means of self-protection against risks, especially natural disasters related to climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to study the livelihood vulnerability under climate change in rural regions of Vietnam. The study was based on the original Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) combined with the use of dataset from the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) in 2018. by using the dataset from the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) in 2018. The database is composed of 1,852 rural households in 12 provinces in Vietnam and considers socio-demographic profile, livelihood, health, food, social networks, water status, natural disasters, and climate variability. The results show that the North Central and South Central Coasts are the most vulnerable regions, with a lower LVI score (0.261) but higher LVI-IPCC score (0.012); this is mainly due to higher exposure to disasters—such as floods, sea storms, and tropical depressions—which heavily affect people's livelihood. The Red River Delta, the Northern Midlands and Mountains, and the Central Highlands are moderately vulnerable. Moreover, the research outcome indicates that the Red River Delta and the Mekong River Delta were more vulnerable in terms of the sensitivity factor due to a higher vulnerability score on food and water components, especially drought and saltwater intrusions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The premise of this study was to assess the Oregon public's risk perception concerning Oregon's water resources. The state has a long-held reputation of having an overabundance of water; however, water shortages, droughts, and impaired water bodies throughout reveal this is not an accurate perception. Climate change models and population growth are projected to exacerbate Oregon's water situation. A 2010 survey questionnaire was distributed to 1,563 randomly selected Oregon households to elicit the risk perception of ten water-related activities. With a response rate of 51%, the study found the public perceived agricultural and forestry practices as the two greatest risks and private wells as the lowest risk activity. A Risk Perception index found on average the public view the state's water resources at a moderate risk. These findings can assist water resource managers throughout the Western United States as they develop and implement management strategies in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perceptions of the populace play a central and decisive role in advancing pro-environmental policies. To study attitudes and perceptions towards environmental measures, we apply several items of New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) and Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theories to cross-examine the public perceptions of climate change in the urban city-state of Singapore through analysis of quantitative questionnaires and qualitative semi-structured interviews. The perceptions were explored about ecological orientation (two dimensions of NEP: level of concern, self-reported knowledge) and environmental behavior (two dimensions of VBN: acceptance and support of national adaptation measures, confidence in adaptation). There is a moderate to high concern for climate change, in general, and sea level rise and flooding, in particular, and the concern is expected to increase in the future. Individuals who indicated a higher level of concern are likely to be more accepting and supportive of climate change measures. Also, while the majority of the populace are amenable to legislative measures from the government, such as enacting pro-environmental laws and more are agreeable to accepting cuts on living standards, as opposed to paying more in prices and taxes. Ecological orientation does not translate directly into environmental behavior, highlighting the gulf between perception and behavior in Singapore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aboriginal communities of Northeast (NE) India remained in isolation from the mainland and lived in a distinct cultural milieu with the environment. Due to the high degree of exposure and better insight of ground realities, they may have rich traditional knowledge of perception, prediction, and adaptation to climate change. We accessed and illustrated the traditional knowledge on fish and fisheries from the region through participatory rural appraisal (PRA). Our study revealed that ecological and climatic circumstances are maintained through the traditional system of governance and local self-government. Local skills, tools, techniques, wisdom, beliefs and costumes of the aboriginal people act as a shock absorber during disasters and successfully build resilience to climatic hazards. Most of this knowledge was transmitted over successive generations and became a part of living, cultural and religion sustenance. Adaptation strategies at community level fisheries helps in reducing vulnerabilities to extreme weather such as drought, flood and erratic rainfall pattern. Adaptation to climate change in fisheries can decipher through strategies available from fine-scale spatial and grassroots levels. Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation efforts can only be achieved through extensive assessment, research, recognition and promotion of local skills, culture, indigenous knowledge as well as community-based fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applied livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood effect index (LEI) to assess vulnerability from climate variability and change of three agricultural and natural resources dependent commune in northwest Vietnam, a country that is expected to bear some of the most severe impacts of climate change. Based on a survey of 335 farm household data, complemented with secondary data on climate factors, a composite index was calculated and differential vulnerabilities were compared. The results of the analysis suggest that one of the communities, "Pa Vay Su," was more vulnerable than the others, particularly in relation to housing, knowledge and skills, socio-demographics, health and water security, social networks, and livelihood strategy. "Hien Luong" commune, on the other hand, was more vulnerable in relation to other LVI indicators with the exception of food security, climate variability, and natural disasters. "Moc Chau" community was more vulnerable in relation to water security, social demographic than Hien Luong commune. Overall, the article shows that three different vulnerability assessment indices can be broadly applied in comparable setting in other areas of country and they could usefully establish the basis for a nationally applicable index to identify and prioritize adaptation and mitigation needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an integrated approach using geographical information system (GIS) based on a multi-criteria approach (MCDA) to assess coastal vulnerability, resulting from human activity, population density, erosion, and climate change-induced sea level rise. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) for erosion and floods was calculated andmapped (»24 km in length; »400 m in width, and 11.47 km2 in surface) for the lagoon barrier of Nador located on the Mediterranean coast of Morocco. Results suggest that 54% (»13 km) of the shoreline is moderately vulnerable, while 42% (»10 km) is highly vulnerable and only 4% (1 km) present a low vulnerability. The vulnerability map of the socio-economic activities indicates that most wetlands and forest areas 83% (»31 ha) and 50% (»440 ha) respectively, present low vulnerability. 52% percent of artificial areas (»23 ha), 73% of agricultural land (»128 ha), and 41% of natural areas (»363 ha) present moderate vulnerability. However, the level of vulnerability of the remaining artificial and agricultural areas classifies from high to very high. The northwestern sector was classified as the most vulnerable area, characterized by an erosion (¡0.6 m/yr to ¡1.20 m/yr) for 70% of this area, while the southeastern part shows a low to moderate vulnerability marked by an erosion (¡0.1m/yr to¡1m/yr) for 40% of this area. Coastal vulnerabilitymaps have potential as decision tools to prepare and respond to sea level rise, and identify exposed coastal zones, as such contributing to national climate action and disaster risk reduction sustainable development goals (goals 13 and 11, respectively). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this study was to determine people's perception and knowledge toward land degradation and management in the Al- Suwaiq Wilayat of Al-Batinah North, Sultanate of Oman. This area has been under pressure and competed for by several uses. Structured questionnaire survey with questions related to land degradation and management were used for the assessment in the beginning of the year 2016. In total, 238 households were surveyed in the Wilayat following a random sampling method. The results indicate that residents were aware of the on-going land degradation due to salinization, construction, and public work activities in the area. Residents perceive land degradation mainly by reduced yields and the most important perceived indicator is loss of soil nutrients that reduced crop yield, reduction in family income followed by increased cost for management. The study findings highlight that sustainable use and management of land resources is required in creating awareness programs to educate residents and successful policies toward improving land degradation in the area. In addition, this study shows that appropriate enabling policies and institutional arrangements are also required. Such measures should combine proven indigenous practices as well as knowledge into technical approaches toward ensuring local participation in decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Muscat Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman is located along the sea of Oman and urban development has therefore had to occur in the intervening flat coastal plains and valleys along the coastline. The physical location of Muscat Governorate exposes the city to heavy rain and cyclones as they hit the coastline from the Sea of Oman. This underlying exposure plays a major role in the risk processes that lead to the emphasis of particular climate change risks including storm surge and rain-related flooding as experienced during Gonu Cyclone in 2007 and Phet Cyclone in 2010. For assessing flooding risk analysis, this study combined flooding hazard maps with major land use cover to quantify and validate the risks of flash flooding to urban area and infrastructures. Analysis identified substantial areas within the governorate exposure to high, medium, and low risks from extreme rainfall events that could lead to direct damages to roads, buildings, and other properties. This reinforces the need to protect and strengthen current defenses against these events as well as greater preparedness in disaster response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study establishes a procedure to couple Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and China Agroecological Zone model (AEZ-China). This procedure enables us to quantify the effects of two natural adaptation measures on soybean production in China, concern on which has been growing owing to the rapidly rising demand for soybean and the foreseen global climate change. The parameters calibration and mode verification are based on the observation records of soybean growth at 13 agro-meteorological observation stations in Northeast China and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain over 1981–2011. The calibration of eco-physiological parameters is based on the algorithms of DSSAT that simulate the dynamic bio-physiological processes of crop growth in daily time-step. The effects of shifts in planting day and changes in the length of growth cycle (LGC) are evaluated by the speedy algorithms of AEZ. Results indicate that without adaptation, climate change from the baseline 1961–1990 to the climate of 2050s as specified in the Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies-A1B would decrease the potential yield of soybean. By contrast, simulations of DSSAT using AEZ-recommended cultivars with adaptive LGC and also the corresponding adaptive planting dates show that the risk of yield loss could be fully or partially mitigated across majority of grid cells in the major soybean-growing areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study set out to build a model identifying areas where a positive Net Present Value (NPV) could be obtained from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) using CLIMEX and six parameters including (a) suitable soil taxonomy and physicochemical soil properties, (b) slopes of less than 10°, (c) land uses suitable for date palm cultivation, (d) availability of roads, (e) availability of water, and (f) low risk of the lethal disease caused byFusarium oxysporumf. spp. in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 in Iran. Here, we utilized the A2 scenario and two global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). Economic feasibility was estimated based on the assumption that the decision to plant date palms by landholders is motivated by a desire to maximize their return to land. Our results indicate that only 5450 km2of southern Iran will be highly profitable for cultivation of date palm, with NPV > 10,000, while profitable (with NPV between 4200 and 10,000) and moderately profitable (with NPV between 0 and 4200) areas would cover only 500 and 50 km2, respectively, in future. A comparison of mean outputs from the two chosen GCMs and those of the economic and CLIMEX output combination indicates that only about 0.01% of areas from both GCMs will be highly economically viable for cultivation of date palm. In this study we ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For policy-making to address public risk perceptions effectively, policy-makers must have a clear understanding of the nature of public risks. Public opinion polls regularly solicit perceptions of risk toward a variety of topics. These assessments, though, tend to be general with no specificity offered for a nuanced interpretation. Yet, there is good reason to assume that risk perceptions are not based on the same criteria. If true, policy-makers may be unable to address risks adequately without a better understanding of the drivers of risk perceptions. This project focuses on two primary research questions: (1) Does the public weigh the risk associated with global climate change differently in specific sub-domains? (2) If so, which climate change sub-domains are various members of the public most concerned about when offering a general assessment of global climate change risk? We assess public risk perceptions of climate change in three sub-domains—public health, economic development, and environment—and find that two of the three sub-domains are predictors of a general assessment of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The deteriorating state of the environment and global warming pose a serious and unprecedented threat to humanity. Yet, public response and personal behavior do not reflect the proportions of such a threat. In the present research we explored possible reasons for this discrepancy. Past research has shown that people perceive events as more threatening based on their immediacy, certainty, or personal implications. Liberman and Trope (2008) developed the concept of “psychological distance” (PD), according to which more immediate events are seen as “closer in time,” more certain events as “closer in probability,” and events with greater potential for personal harm as “socially closer.” Adopting this concept, we examined how distant, in terms of PD, people perceive environmental threats to be. Using a structural equations model, we measured how PD influences environmental threat perception. In a sample of 305 Israeli students who completed a computerized questionnaire, we found that environmental threats were perceived as psychologically distant in all of the PD dimensions, and that PD strongly affected perceived severity of environmental threats and willingness to engage in pro-environmental behavior. The reasons for the psychological remoteness of environmental threats and possible approaches to cope with its implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Climate change is considered as the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century. Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the most-at-risk region of the world, is estimated to have a disproportionately large share of the burden of climate change–induced environmental and human health risks. To develop effective adaptations to protect public health, it is essential to consider how individuals perceive and understand the risks, and how they might be willing to change their behaviors in response to them. Using a cross-sectional survey of 1253 individuals in coastal Tanzania we analyzed the relationship between subjective health status (self-reported health) and objective health status on the one hand and perceived health risks of climate change. Generally, higher subjective health status was associated with lower scores on perceived health risks of climate change. Concerning objective health status, the results were varied. Individuals who affirmed that they had been previously diagnosed with hepatitis, skin conditions, or tuberculosis had lower scores on perceived health risks of climate change, unlike their counterparts who affirmed that they had been previously diagnosed with malaria in the past 12 months or had been diagnosed with HIV/AIDS. These relationships persist even when biosocial and sociocultural attributes are taken into consideration. The results underscore the complex ways in which objective and subjective health interact with both biosocial and sociocultural factors to shape perceived health risks of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study investigated the impacts of climate variability on thermotolerant coliform bacteria (TCB) transport in the Upper Pearl River watershed (UPRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied using daily observed stream flows and TCB concentration data. The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated using both manual and automatic methods from February 2011 to June 2012 (NSE and R2up to 0.79). The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), a stochastic weather generator, with the global climate model, CCSM3, which was developed by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) was used for future climate variability simulations. TheSpecial Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was simulated for the mid (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) 21st century. The SWAT model simulated TCB concentrations in surface water and demonstrated reasonable performances (R2up to 0.59 and NSE up to 0.58). During mid-century climate, average monthly TCB levels increase to 175%, while late-century average monthly TCB levels increase to 297% from the watershed. Although late-century climate variability impacts were determined more critical than mid-century climate impacts, appropriate watershed management practices are required to adapt to maintain and improve water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study explores the development of laypeople's preferences for newly emerging climate engineering technology (CE). It examines whether laypeople perceive CE to be an acceptable back-up strategy (plan B) if current efforts to mitigate CO2emissions were to fail. This idea is a common justification for CE research in the scientific debate and may significantly influence future public debates. Ninety-eight German participants chose their preferred climate policy strategy in a quasi-realistic scenario. Participants could chose between mitigation and three CE techniques as alternative options. We employed a think-aloud interview technique, which allowed us to trace participants’ informational needs and thought processes. Drawing on Huber's risk management decision theory, the study addressed whether specific CE options are more likely to be accepted if they are mentally represented as a back-up strategy. Results support this assumption, especially for cloud whitening. This result is especially relevant considering the high prevalence of the plan B framing in CE appraisal studies and its implications for public opinion-formation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Despite advances in water treatment, outbreaks of waterborne diseases still occur in developed regions including the United States and Europe Union (EU). Water quality impairments attributable to elevated concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria, and associated with health risk, are also very common. Research suggests that the impact of such microorganisms on public health may be intensified by the effects of climate change. At present, the major regulatory frameworks in these regions (i.e.,the US Clean Water Act [CWA] and the EU Water Framework Directive [WFD]), do not explicitly address risks posed by climate change. This article reviews existing U.S. and EU water quality regulatory legislation for robustness to climate change and suggests watershed modeling approaches to inform additional pollution control measures given the likely impacts on microbial fate and transport. Comprehensive analysis of future climate and water quality scenarios may only be achievable through the use of watershed-scale models. Unless adaptation measures are generated and incorporated into water policy, the potential threat posed to humans from exposure to waterborne pathogens may be amplified. Such adaptation measures will assist in achieving the aims of the EU WFD and US CWA and minimize impacts of climate change on microbial water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of efforts to mitigate the consequences of environmental degradation resulting from negative human activities, the focus of social–scientific studies on human–nature relationships has expanded in the last two decades to include research on the behavioral dimensions of global climate change. Current research findings make it apparent that sociopsychological influences play a highly significant role in the cognitive processes that underlie environmental behaviors. Factors such as awareness, moral responsibility, and threat perception have been identified as some of the most important influences on positive climate change–related behaviors in many Western societies. However, to date very few studies of this nature have been conducted in African contexts. Hence, in this study, we attempt to help fill this gap by comparing the effects of three models of behavior: (1) awareness, (2) moral responsibility, and (3) threat perception, as frameworks of climate change–related behavior among a sample of Nigerian urbanites. Analysis of our data, generated by a questionnaire survey, revealed that the threat perception model explained the largest amount of variance in behavioral intentions (R2= 0.23). The differences in the performances of the models are discussed together with the implications of our findings for climate change advocacy efforts in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vietnam is one among five ranked countries with high-risk injury due to the phenomenon of climate change. Geographically, Binh Thuan, a coastal province, is located in the Southern Centre area. Currently, natural disasters have become more frequent, particularly drought. Desertification has become more serious. Besides the natural causes as described above, there are several affected by human activities such as high population and poverty, inappropriate cultivating technique, deforestation, ill-adopted legal framework, weak management capacity, lack of adequate knowledge, and a lack of awareness in local population. To assess risks of desertification for the Binh Thuan province (Vietnam), a risk assessment model based on a Leopold matrix was applied. As a result, a model of cause and effect showed six degrees of impacts of environmental and social conditions on the socioeconomic developments from very highly to very unlikely significance. Risk assessment allows for a general figure of various impacts of desertification on the socioeconomic developments in Binh Thuan, Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the international urgency of addressing climate change, this article evaluates the contribution of energy Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects for the generation of cleaner technologies and the promotion of sustainable development in Brazil. In order to do this, energy CDM projects representing the Brazilian context were selected and a multi-case study was conducted. The data collected were compared using a data triangulation technique and further analyzed in the light of an analysis model built on the following concepts: CDM project's cycle, technology transfer, environmental technologies, and sustainable development. The results demonstrate the prevalence of projects that: (a) use renewable energy sources and technologies that can be classified as cleaner, (b) have a triple bottom line profile with regard to sustainable development, and (c) show partially exogenous or predominantly endogenous technology transfer. General risk factors are presented and analyzed from a CDM project's life cycle's perspective. The results show that Brazilian energy CDM projects contribute to cleaner technology generation and to the promotion of triple bottom line (social, economic, and environmental) sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. In 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Modeling risk factors to soils is constrained by the lack of key data and understanding that explicitly and quantitatively link specific threats to risk. Peat erosion results from the complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic influences acting over a long period of time. With numerous contemporary factors operating to perpetuate the erosion processes, it is often difficult to identify with certainty what actually are the initial and subsequent drivers of erosion. In this situation, expert opinion forms a vital source of information. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) can be used to combine quantitative data from the National Soils Inventory of Scotland (NSIS) with qualitative expert knowledge to estimate risk of peat erosion in Scotland. This model was used to identify the main factors associated with peat erosion. It was shown that climatic variables (increased temperature, decreased precipitation) are the most important risk factors for perpetuating peatland erosion. However, the BBN approach also indicated that maintaining good vegetation cover is a significant mitigating factor. It would follow that land management practices that impact negatively on vegetation cover would also exacerbate peatland erosion given a hot dry climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanism of mass collaboration in risk management was studied during the Sichuan earthquake under a Web-based “PeopleFinder” project, where information is contributed and shared among mass contributors. The case study is provided by a great earthquake that happened in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, of southwestern China at 2:28 p.m. on May 12, 2008. We witnessed and experienced the rescue and relief efforts for the great earthquake. In this article, two fundamental frameworks are developed to study the mechanism of mass collaboration. Mass collaboration is proven to be effective in a big public crisis such as the Sichuan earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the ways in which risk assessment can inform life-cycle analysis (LCA) is by providing a mechanism to translate midpoint categories into common endpoints. Although this analytical step is complex and often highly uncertain, it can allow for prioritization among disparate midpoints and subsequent analytical refinements focused on the endpoints that dominate policy decisions. In this article, we present an approach to address three widely differing impact categories—particulate matter air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and personal income. We use the case of increased residential insulation as a measure to reduce energy consumption, which implies economic and public health tradeoffs across all three categories. We apply previously developed models that combined input-output LCA and risk assessment to address public health impacts from particulate matter, and extend the framework to address greenhouse gases and the public health consequences of changes in income. For a hypothetical loan program applied to both new and existing single-family homes, we find a payback period of approximately one year for the particulate matter and greenhouse gas–related midpoints and endpoints, with the structure of the loan implying that no economic payback is required. Our central estimates for avoided disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for a 50-year period are approximately 200,000 for particulate matter, 900,000 for greenhouse gases, and 300,000 for income changes, although values are highly dependent on discount rates and other model assumptions. We conclude that all three impact categories are potentially significant in this case, indicating that analytical refinements should be considered for all three impact categories to reduce model uncertainties. Our study demonstrates how LCA and risk assessment can work together in a framework that includes multiple impact categories, aiding in the evaluation of the net impacts of an energy policy change on society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulatory agencies use many chemical standards to help protect human health and the environment. Some of these standards could potentially be adversely influenced by climate change, so it is important to scope the likelihood of such changes, and develop a plan for addressing them. A review of the literature showed that many complex interactions could occur between climate change factors, chemicals, and receptors. However, the way in which chemical standards are currently set is already likely to take into account predicted climate changes in temperate regions, at least implicitly. In contrast, compliance monitoring to ensure that chemical standards are not breached may be compromised if climate change leads to more variability in measured parameters, with a consequent reduction in the statistical power of monitoring programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific herring stock that spawns at Cherry Point, northwest of Bellingham, WA, has undergone a dramatic decline in the last 20 years. The population decline corresponds with a collapse of the age structure. The Cherry Point area contains three deep water shipping piers, two refineries, an aluminum smelter, and urban development. The Cherry Point Aquatic Reserve was formed initially to protect the spawning habitat of the Cherry Point Pacific herring run. We conducted a retrospective assessment using the relative risk model (RRM) to investigate the causes of the current decline of the Cherry Point run. The RRM combines aspects of the weight-of-evidence (WoE) approach and other methods of establishing causality into a framework that deals with multiple stressors, uncertainty, and spatial scale. An analysis of the Cherry Point Pacific herring age structure and population dynamics indicates that the loss of reproductive potential of the older age class fish was the population characteristic that led to the decline of the run. Exploitation, habitat alteration and climate change are the risk factors that contribute to the decline of the Cherry Point Pacific herring. The retrospective assessment identified the cyclic nature of climate change, as expressed by the warmer sea surface temperatures associated with a warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the primary factor altering the dynamics of the Pacific herring. Other factors are ranked accordingly along with the associated uncertainty. Criteria for selecting alternative endpoints for managing the Cherry Point Aquatic Reserve are also provided. The strengths of the retrospective RRM include its ability to combine a WoE and causality criteria with a multitude of stressors at a regional scale. The difficulties include how to deal with differences in the magnitude of effects, and expressing the uncertainty as distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and climate variability affect risk from contaminants by changing exposure to chemicals, either through the alteration of pathways or through alteration of environmental concentrating mechanisms. The alteration of pathways is affected by changing the balance between transport and deposition. Although the influence of temperature on multimedia partitioning can be modelled successfully, estimating alteration in other climate components such as distribution and form of precipitation provides a much greater challenge. To understand how climate change affects contaminant concentrations, we distinguish two types of environmental concentrating processes — solvent switching and solvent depletion. The first process, which is simply chemical partitioning, runs spontaneously toward equilibrium. This process alone can explain hemispheric-scale distributions of hexachlorocyclohexane, which partitions strongly into water, and high concentrations of organochlorines at the bottom of aquatic foodwebs. The latter process involves the maintenance of contaminant burdens during the loss of solvent, with the aquatic foodweb providing one of the better-known examples. Solvent reducing processes can produce contaminant concentrations well above thermodynamic equilibrium with a number of important examples provided by phase changes in water (freezing, snow melting). These solvent-reducing processes, which are poorly studied, provide some of the best circumstances for climate change to produce alteration in persistent organic pollutants exposure pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbances of climatic and ecological systems can present risks to human health, which are becoming more evident from health studies linked to climate variability, landuse change and global climate change. Waterborne disease agents, such asGiardiacysts andCryposporidiumoocysts have been positively correlated with rainfall. El Niño-related extreme weather conditions can have a significant impact on vector- and water-borne diseases. The linkages between weather, terrestrial ecology and human health have been discovered for some diseases, such as rodent-borne hantavirus. Marine ecology also plays a role in determining human health risks, such as from cholera, and other enteric pathogens. Deforestation and ensuing changes in landuse, human settlement, commercial development, road construction, and water control systems singly, and in combination have been accompanied by increases in or emergence of diseases like malaria and schistosomiasis in some regions of the world. Long-term climate change may increase the frequency of heat waves and potentially air pollution episodes, increase the number of extreme weather events, cause coastal flooding and salination of fresh water aquifers, and displace coastal settlements. Ultimately, a two-pronged approach (empirical and modeling studies) is required to better understand these linkages between climato-logical and ecological change as determinants of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) and Forest Inventory and Analyses (FIA) programs are integrated biological monitoring systems that use nationally standardized methods to evaluate and report on the health and sustainability of forest ecosystems in the United States. Many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystems from climate change were also issues addressed in sections of FHM's National Technical Report 1991 to 1998. The integrated FHM and FIA monitoring systems are currently establishing baseline conditions (status and change) in most States for many of the expected effects, and are projected to have full implementation for all States and Territories in 2003. These monitoring systems utilize a broad suite of indicators of key ecosystem components and processes that are responsive to many biotic and abiotic stressors, including those anticipated from climate change. These programs will contribute essential information for many decades for many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystem from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climatic scenarios, and extreme weather events that are probable in the next 30 to 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The global atmosphere is changing. Anthropogenic activities are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases and releasing synthetic compounds that deplete stratospheric ozone and increase UV-B radiation. Changes of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during the past century strongly suggest that we are now in a period of rapid global warming relative to the past millennium. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are absorbing outgoing infrared radiation in the lower atmosphere, warming the troposphere and cooling the lower stratosphere. Research is beginning to indicate that losses of stratospheric ozone and increases of greenhouse gases are interdependent. Increased greenhouse gases have been implicated in the observed strengthening of stratospheric wind vortices around both poles, in turn setting the stage for further depletion of ozone and increases in UV-B radiation. Although the uncertainties are still large enough to make it difficult to assess health and ecological risks, decisions must be made. Research on indicators of risks to human health and the environment can help reduce the uncertainties in these risks and shorten the time between recognizing the risks of atmospheric change and taking concrete mitigative and adaptive actions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]