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This paper examines issues related to the future supply of registered nursing staff, midwives and health visitors in the National Health Service (NHS) in England at a time when there are major public sector funding constraints and as more of these staff are reaching retirement age. Based on available workforce data, the paper reviews different possible scenarios for the supply of NHS nurses over a ten year period, assessing the impact of different numbers of new staff being trained and of varying retirement patterns from the ageing profession. The government in England has more policy levers available than is the case in many other countries. It determines the number of pre-registration training places that are commissioned and funded, it is the major employer, and it also controls the inflow of nurses from other countries through migration policies. Scenario models provide a picture of what the future might look like under various assumptions. These outcomes can be quantified and the results used to assess the risks and opportunities of alternate policy decisions. The approach used in this paper is that of the aggregate deterministic supply model. As part of this exercise, eight scenarios were selected and modelled. These were: A. "No change"--current inflows and outflows B. "Redundancies"--current inflow with higher outflow C. "Improved retention"--current inflow with lower outflow D. "Reduced training intakes A"--lower inflows with lower outflow E. "Reduced training intakes B" - lower inflow with higher outflows F. "Pension time-bomb"--current inflow with a higher rate of retirement G. "Pension delayed"--current inflow with a lower rate of retirement H. "Worst case"--lower inflow and higher outflow including higher retirement Most of the scenarios indicate that a reduction in the supply of nursing staff to NHS England is possible over the next ten years. Small changes in assumptions can make a substantial difference to outcomes and therefore emphasize the point that it is unwise to base policy decisions on a single projection. It is important that different scenarios are considered that may be regarded as possible futures, based on a realistic assessment of the available workforce data, policies and broader labour market and funding outlook. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper draws from research completed in 2007 to assess the effect of the Department of Health, England, Code of Practice for the international recruitment of health professionals. The Department of Health in England introduced a Code of Practice for international recruitment for National Health Service employers in 2001. The Code required National Health Service employers not to actively recruit from low-income countries, unless there was government-to-government agreement. The Code was updated in 2004. Methods: The paper examines trends in inflow of health professionals to the United Kingdom from other countries, using professional registration data and data on applications for work permits. The paper also provides more detailed information from two country case studies in Ghana and Kenya. Results: Available data show a considerable reduction in inflow of health professionals, from the peak years up to 2002 (for nurses) and 2004 (for doctors). There are multiple causes for this decline, including declining demand in the United Kingdom. In Ghana and Kenya it was found that active recruitment was perceived to have reduced significantly from the United Kingdom, but it is not clear the extent to which the Code was influential in this, or whether other factors such as a lack of vacancies in the United Kingdom explains it. Conclusion: Active international recruitment of health professionals was an explicit policy intervention by the Department of Health in England, as one key element in achieving rapid staffing growth, particularly in the period 2000 to 2005, but the level of international recruitment has dropped significantly since early 2006. Regulatory and education changes in the United Kingdom in recent years have also made international entry more difficult. The potential to assess the effect of the Code in England is constrained by the limitations in available databases. This is a crucial lesson for those considering a global code: without a clear link between explicit objectives of a code, and relevant monitoring capacity, it is not possible to judge the actual impact of a code. A second message for policy-makers is that attempts to use a single country code in other countries where there are a multiplicity of independent, private-sector health care employers, or where there is a federated political and regulatory structure, will be a much more challenging and complex issue than in England, which has one major public sector health care employer and one national point of entry for regulated health professionals. Finally, there is a message about the importance of the "visibility" of any recruitment code - for policy-makers, employers and potential recruits. The Department of Health Code has a good level of recognition in the National Health Service, but would benefit from better dissemination in lowincome countries, particularly in Africa, together with further consultation on the appropriateness of its provisions in specific countries. To achieve high visibility and recognition of any global code will be a much bigger challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pay and pay systems are a critical element in any health sector human resource strategy. Changing a pay system can be one strategy to achieve or sustain organizational change. This paper reports on the design and implementation of a completely new pay system in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. 'Agenda for Change' constituted the largest-ever attempt to introduce a new pay system in the UK public services, covering more than one million staff. Its objectives were to improve the delivery of patient care as well as enhance staff recruitment, retention and motivation, and to facilitate new ways of working. Methods: This study was the first independent assessment of the impact of Agenda for Change at a local and national level. The methods used in the research were a literature review; review of 'grey' unpublished documentation provided by key stakeholders in the process; analysis of available data; interviews with key national informants (representing government, employers and trade unions), and case studies conducted with senior human resource managers in ten NHS hospitals in England Results: Most of the NHS trust managers interviewed were in favour of Agenda for Change, believing it would assist in delivering improvements in patient care and staff experience. The main benefits highlighted were: 'fairness', moving different staff groups on to harmonized conditions; equal pay claim 'protection'; and scope to introduce new roles and working practices. Conclusion: Agenda for Change took several years to design, and has only recently been implemented. Its very scale and central importance to NHS costs and delivery of care argues for a full assessment at an early stage so that lessons can be learned and any necessary changes made. This paper highlights weaknesses in evaluation and limitations in progress. The absence of systematically derived and applied impact indicators makes it difficult to assess impact and impact variations. Similarly, the lack of any full and systematic evaluation constrained the overall potential for Agenda for Change to deliver improvements to the NHS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations (UN) System's agencies have been criticized for not adequately assessing the impact of their training and fellowship programmes. Critics point out that beyond documentation of the number of fellows that underwent training, and their immediate reaction to the experience, it is necessary to ascertain that fellows are using what they have learned, and most importantly that their institution and country are benefiting from the significant investments made in the fellowship programmes.This paper presents an evaluation framework that was adopted by the 17th Meeting of the UN System Senior Fellowship Officers convened in London in 2008 in response to this challenge. It is arranged in three sections. First, the assumptions and constraints concerning impact evaluation of training are presented. Second, a framework for evaluating the impact of training in the context of UN System programmes is proposed. Third, necessary conditions and supportive measures to enable implementation of the impact evaluation framework are identified.The critical message emerging from this review is the importance of constructing a 'performance story' based on key milestones associated with the design and implementation of fellowship programmes as a way of assessing the contribution of different components of the fellowship programmes to institutional outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The paper reports on a survey of recently arrived international nurses working in London, to assess their demographic profile, motivations, experiences and career plans. Methods: A postal survey was conducted in October-December 2004 on a sample of 1000 nurses who were London-based international members of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN). The usable response rate was 40%. Registration data from the Nurses and Midwives Council (NMC) were also analysed. Results: The Philippines, Nigeria and South Africa were the three most commonly reported countries of training (in total, more than 30 countries of training were reported). Sixty per cent of the nurses from sub-Saharan Africa and more than 40% from South Africa and India/Pakistan/Mauritius were aged 40 or older; the youngest age profile was reported by the Australia/New Zealand/USA nurses. Two thirds of all the respondents indicated that a recruitment agency had been involved in their move to the United Kingdom (UK). Three quarters of the respondents (76%) reported that they were required to complete a supervised practice course/period of adaptation in the UK in order to be eligible to practice as a nurse in the UK. Two thirds (69%) of respondents were working in NHS hospitals in London, 13% were working in the private sector hospitals and 10% were working in private sector nursing homes. Most of the nurses reported they were the major or sole wage-earner contributing to household income. More than half of the respondents (57%) reported that they regularly sent remittances to their home country. The majority of respondents (60%) indicated that they planned to stay for at least five years, but just under half (43%) also reported that they were considering a move to another country. Conclusion: One critical issue for UK policy-makers is to determine if internationally recruited nurses will stay on in the UK, move back to their home country, or move on to another. That these nurses have made at least one international move means they are likely to have the propensity to move again. As such, retention efforts in the UK will have to take account of their career aspirations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In primary care dentistry, strategies to reconfigure the traditional boundaries of various dental professional groups by task sharing and role substitution have been encouraged in order to meet changing oral health needs.Aim: The aim of this research was to investigate the potential for skill mix use in primary dental care in England based on the undergraduate training experience in a primary care team training centre for dentists and mid-level dental providers.Methods: An operational research model and four alternative scenarios to test the potential for skill mix use in primary care in England were developed, informed by the model of care at a primary dental care training centre in the south of England, professional policy including scope of practice and contemporary evidence-based preventative practice. The model was developed in Excel and drew on published national timings and salary costs. The scenarios included the following: "No Skill Mix", "Minimal Direct Access", "More Prevention" and "Maximum Delegation". The scenario outputs comprised clinical time, workforce numbers and salary costs required for state-funded primary dental care in England.Results: The operational research model suggested that 73% of clinical time in England's state-funded primary dental care in 2011/12 was spent on tasks that may be delegated to dental care professionals (DCPs), and 45- to 54-year-old patients received the most clinical time overall. Using estimated National Health Service (NHS) clinical working patterns, the model suggested alternative NHS workforce numbers and salary costs to meet the dental demand based on each developed scenario. For scenario 1:"No Skill Mix", the dentist-only scenario, 81% of the dentists currently registered in England would be required to participate. In scenario 2: "Minimal Direct Access", where 70% of examinations were delegated and the primary care training centre delegation patterns for other treatments were practised, 40% of registered dentists and eight times the number of dental therapists currently registered would be required; this would save 38% of current salary costs cf. "No Skill Mix". Scenario 3: "More Prevention", that is, the current model with no direct access and increasing fluoride varnish from 13.1% to 50% and maintaining the same model of delegation as scenario 2 for other care, would require 57% of registered dentists and 4.7 times the number of dental therapists. It would achieve a 1% salary cost saving cf. "No Skill Mix". Scenario 4 "Maximum Delegation" where all care within dental therapists' jurisdiction is delegated at 100%, together with 50% of restorations and radiographs, suggested that only 30% of registered dentists would be required and 10 times the number of dental therapists registered; this scenario would achieve a 52% salary cost saving cf. "No Skill Mix".Conclusion: Alternative scenarios based on wider expressed treatment need in national primary dental care in England, changing regulations on the scope of practice and increased evidence-based preventive practice suggest that the majority of care in primary dental practice may be delegated to dental therapists, and there is potential time and salary cost saving if the majority of diagnostic tasks and prevention are delegated. However, this would require an increase in trained DCPs, including role enhancement, as part of rebalancing the dental workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Balancing medical workforce supply with demand requires good information about factors affecting retention. Overseas qualified doctors comprise 30% of the National Health Service (NHS) workforce in England yet little is known about the impact of country of qualification on length of stay. We aimed to address this need. Methods: Using NHS annual census data, we calculated the duration of 'episodes of work' for doctors entering the workforce between 1992 and 2003. Survival analysis was used to examine variations in retention by country of qualification. The extent to which differences in retention could be explained by differences in doctors' age, sex and medical specialty was examined by logistic regression. Results: Countries supplying doctors to the NHS could be divided into those with better or worse long-term retention than domestically trained doctors. Countries in the former category were generally located in the Middle East, non-European Economic Area Europe, Northern Africa and Asia, and tended to be poorer with fewer doctors per head of population, but stronger economic growth. A doctor's age and medical specialty, but not sex, influenced patterns of retention. Conclusion: Adjusting workforce participation by country of qualification can improve estimates of the number of medical school places needed to balance supply with demand. Developing countries undergoing strong economic growth are likely to be the most important suppliers of long stay medical migrants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]