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Abstract Background The growing AIDS epidemic in southern Africa is placing an increased strain on health systems, which are experiencing steadily rising patient loads. Health care systems are tackling the barriers to serving large populations in scaled-up operations. One of the most significant challenges in this effort is securing the health care workforce to deliver care in settings where the manpower is already in short supply. Methods We have produced a demand-driven staffing model using simple spreadsheet technology, based on treatment protocols for HIV-positive patients that adhere to Mozambican guidelines. The model can be adjusted for the volumes of patients at differing stages of their disease, varying provider productivity, proportion who are pregnant, attrition rates, and other variables. Results Our model projects the need for health workers using three different kinds of goals: 1) the number of patients to be placed on anti-retroviral therapy (ART), 2) the number of HIV-positive patients to be enrolled for treatment, and 3) the number of patients to be enrolled in a treatment facility per month. Conclusion We propose three scenarios, depending on numbers of patients enrolled. In the first scenario, we start with 8000 patients on ART and increase that number to 58 000 at the end of three years (those were the goals for the country of Mozambique). This would require thirteen clinicians and just over ten nurses by the end of the first year, and 67 clinicians and 47 nurses at the end of the third year. In a second scenario, we start with 34 000 patients enrolled for care (not all of them on ART), and increase to 94 000 by the end of the third year, requiring a growth in clinician staff from 18 to 28. In a third scenario, we start a new clinic and enrol 200 new patients per month for three years, requiring 1.2 clinicians in year 1 and 2.2 by the end of year 3. Other clinician types in the model include nurses, social workers, pharmacists, phlebotomists, and peer counsellors. This planning tool could lead to more realistic and appropriate estimates of workforce levels required to provide high-quality HIV care in a low-resource settings.

Abstract Background The most pressing challenge to achieving universal access to highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) in sub-Saharan Africa is the shortage of trained personnel to handle the increased service requirements of rapid roll-out. Overcoming the human resource challenge requires developing innovative models of care provision that improve efficiency of service delivery and rationalize use of limited resources. Methods We conducted a time-series intervention trial in two HIV clinics in central Mozambique to discern whether expanding the role of basic-level nurses to stage HIV-positive patients using CD4 counts and WHO-defined criteria would lead to more rapid information on patient status (including identification of HAART eligible patients), increased efficiency in the use of higher-level clinical staff, and increased capacity to start HAART-eligible patients on treatment. Results Overall, 1,880 of the HAART-eligible patients were considered in the study of whom 48.5% started HAART, with a median time of 71 days from their initial blood draw. After adjusting for time, expanding the role of nurses to stage patients was associated with more rational use of higher-level clinical staff at one site (Beira OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1–3.3; Chimoio OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1–0.5). In multivariate analyses, the rate of starting HAART in patients with CD4 counts of less than 200/mm3 increased over time (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.02–1.13), as did the total number of new patients initiating HAART (β = 7.3, 95% CI 1.3–13.3). However, the intervention was not independently associated with either of these outcomes in multivariate analyses (HR = 0.9, 95% CI 0.7–1.2) for starting HAART in patients with CD4 counts of less than 200/mm3; (β = -5.2, p = 0.75) for the total number of new patients initiating HAART per month. No effect of the intervention was found in these outcomes when stratifying by site. Conclusion The CD4 nurse intervention, when implemented correctly, was associated with a more rational use of higher-level clinical providers, which may improve overall clinic flow and efficient use of the limited supply of human resources. However, this intervention did not lead to an increase in the number of patients starting HAART or a reduction in the time to HAART initiation. Study month appears to play an important role in all outcomes, suggesting that general improvements in clinic efficiency may have overshadowed the effect of the intervention. The lack of observed effect in these outcomes may be due to additional health systems bottlenecks that delay the initiation of treatment in HAART-eligible patients.