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Determining the catchment design peak flow is crucial in hydrological practice. In this paper, the conceptual rainfall–runoff model EBA4SUB (Event-Based Approach for Small and Ungauged Basins) was applied in six catchments in Iran. The aims were to test EBA4SUB in reconstructing runoff hydrographs for the investigated case studies and to provide a suitable alternative for the review and updating of design peak flow estimation in Iran. The EBA4SUB output was compared with previous studies on selected catchments. The results show, for all case studies, a large variability in the peak flow values; the EBA4SUB model gave flow values similar to the other methodologies. The EBA4SUB model can be recommended for the following reasons: (i) it minimizes the subjectivity of the modeller. (ii) its modules are based on state-of-the-art procedures, which have been appropriately optimized for ungauged basins; and (iii) it furnishes the whole design flood hydrograph. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Rational Formula (RF) is probably the most frequently applied equation in practical hydrology to compute the peak discharge, due to its simplicity and effective compromise between theory and data availability. Thus, after more than a century, the estimation of peak discharge through the RF is still an important and challenging issue in hydrology. The RF assumes response linearity and sometimes assumes that the return period does not depend on the runoff coefficient and neglects the time to ponding and the antecedent moisture condition. Moreover, the RF requires the critical duration of rainfall and the runoff coefficient to be estimated, both of which are highly controversial. This paper proposes an advanced RF that makes it possible to derive the peak discharge at the hillslope scale, where the above RF assumptions are mostly relaxed. Physically based runoff coefficient tables, which are not affected by subjectivity, are presented and application of the derived procedure is performed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the contradiction between regulation and protection of the water ecological environment in a dam-controlled river, it is necessary to identify the main influencing factors of that environment and the interactions between the water quantity, quality and ecology. In this paper, the redundancy analysis (RDA) technique is used to identify the key influencing factors of water eco-environment in the Shaying River, China. The multivariate nonlinear quantization method is used to quantify the interactive relationship between water quantity, water quality and water ecology, and a quantitative model of the dam-controlled river eco-environment is constructed. The results show the relative importance of the various environmental factors. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index is used to assess phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthos (P-SWI, Z-SWI and B-SWI, respectively). The R2 of the quantization models for P-SWI, Z-SWI and B-SWI in the fitting phase were 0.81, 0.72 and 0.66, respectively, and, in the validation phase, they were 0.36, 0.31 and 0.41, respectively. The results of this study can provide reference and support for the environmental regulation of dam-controlled rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In cold region environments, any alteration in the hydro-climatic regime can have profound impacts on river ice processes. This paper studies the implications of hydro-climatic trends on river ice processes, particularly on the freeze-up and ice-cover breakup along the Athabasca River in Fort McMurray in western Canada, which is an area very prone to ice-jam flooding. Using a stochastic approach in a one-dimensional hydrodynamic river ice model, a relationship between overbank flow and breakup discharge is established. Furthermore, the likelihood of ice-jam flooding in the future (2041–2070 period) is assessed by forcing a hydrological model with meteorological inputs from the Canadian regional climate model driven by two atmospheric–ocean general circulation climate models. Our results show that the probability of ice-jam flooding for the town of Fort McMurray in the future will be lower, but extreme ice-jam flood events are still probable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The calibration of hydrological models is formulated as a blackbox optimization problem where the only information available is the objective function value. Distributed hydrological models are generally computationally intensive, and their calibration may require several hours or days which can be an issue for many operational contexts. Different optimization algorithms have been developed over the years and exhibit different strengths when applied to the calibration of computationally intensive hydrological models. This paper shows how the dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) and the mesh adaptive direct search (MADS) algorithms can be combined to significantly reduce the computational time of calibrating distributed hydrological models while ensuring robustness and stability regarding the final objective function values. Five transitional features are described to adequately merge both algorithms. The hybrid approach is applied to the distributed and computationally intensive HYDROTEL model on three different river basins located in Québec (Canada). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research paper by Akçay et al. applied innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) to derive trend length/volume and trend slope between two consecutive months for rainfall/streamflow in the eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey. Although the trend length/volume equation is correct, the trend slope equation is fundamentally incorrect. A brief discussion is presented to apprise the research community of the correct trend slope equation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the performance of three climate re-analysis datasets in Angola, namely the ERA-40, NCEP-r1 and JRA-55, by comparing annual and seasonal estimates of precipitation, surface air temperature and evaporation with ground observation measurements. The observational dataset describes a region poorly covered by international climate databases and it is believed that most of its data have not been used in the data assimilation procedures of the climate models. This paper therefore provides a fresh look at the performance of these climate re-analysis datasets in a vast area where distance and civil war have hindered ground monitoring efforts. The re-analysis exercises offer better temperature estimates than precipitation estimates. When offered, the evaporation estimates from all three products are very poor. The three products are able to describe the main features of the spatial distribution of average annual precipitation and temperature, but struggle to reproduce the temporal changes of these variables. The results from a set of performance criteria show that the correlation between the observed ground measurements and re-analysis estimates is poor overall and the NSE values indicate that the average measured value at each location is usually a better estimate than the re-analysis estimate.EDITOR A. CastellarinASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe. EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to understand how the natural dynamics of a time-varying catchment, i.e. the rainfall pattern, transforms the random component of rainfall and how this transformation influences the river discharge. To this end, this paper develops a rainfall–runoff modelling approach that aims to capture the multiple sources and types of uncertainty in a single framework. The main assumption is that hydrological systems are nonlinear dynamical systems which can be described by stochastic differential equations (SDE). The dynamics of the system is based on the least action principle (LAP) as derived from Noether’s theorem. The inflow process is considered as a sum of deterministic and random components. Using data from the Ouémé River basin (Benin, West Africa), the basic properties for the random component are considered and the triple relationship between the structure of the inflowing rainfall, the corresponding SDE that describes the river basin and the associated Fokker-Planck equations (FPE) is analysed.EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Due to the complicated nature of environmental processes, consideration of uncertainty is an important part of environmental modelling. In this paper, a new variant of the machine learning-based method for residual estimation and parametric model uncertainty is presented. This method is based on the UNEEC-P (UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering – Parameter) method, but instead of multilayer perceptron uses a "fuzzified" version of the general regression neural network (GRNN). Two hydrological models are chosen and the proposed method is used to evaluate their parametric uncertainty. The approach can be classified as a hybrid uncertainty estimation method, and is compared to the group method of data handling (GMDH) and ordinary kriging with linear external drift (OKLED) methods. It is shown that, in terms of inherent complexity, measured by Akaike information criterion (AIC), the proposed fuzzy GRNN method has advantages over other techniques, while its accuracy is comparable. Statistical metrics on verification datasets demonstrate the capability and appropriate efficiency of the proposed method to estimate the uncertainty of environmental models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil has some of the largest rivers in the world and has the second greatest flood loss potential among the emergent countries. Despite that, flood studies in this area are still scarce. In this paper, we used flood seasonality and trend analysis at the annual and seasonal scales in order to describe flood regimes and changes across the whole of Brazil in the period 1976–2015. We identified a strong seasonality of floods and a well-defined spatio-temporal pattern for flood occurrence. There are positive trends in the frequency and magnitude of floods in the North, South and parts of Southeast Brazil; and negative trends in the North-east and the remainder of Southeast Brazil. Trends in the magnitude (frequency) were predominant in the winter (summer). Overall, floods are becoming more frequent and intense in Brazilian regions characterized by wet conditions, and less frequent and intense in drier regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are vulnerable to groundwater extraction, which has proven detrimental to aquatic ecosystems around the planet. As wetlands rank among the world's most endangered ecosystems, versatile strategies are required to protect them. This paper provides a modelling-based method to delineate protection buffers in wetlands subject to groundwater extraction. The technique is sufficiently flexible to cater to a wide variety of conditions, and simple enough to underpin management decisions on a daily basis. A numerical model is used to obtain a map of the critical rate of groundwater abstraction, based on the distance between wetlands and suitable discharge thresholds. The outcomes determine the allowed pumping rate at any point under steady and transient-state conditions. A new iteration is developed every time a new pumping allowance is made. This procedure is demonstrated by means of hypothetical scenarios, as well as by a case study application in the Valle del Cauca region, Colombia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-of-the-art hydrological climate impact assessment involves ensemble approaches to address uncertainties. For precipitation, a wide range of climate model runs is available. However, for particular meteorological variables used for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (ETo), availability of climate model runs is limited. It is preferred that climate model runs are considered coupled when calculating changes in precipitation and ETo amounts, in order to preserve the internal physical consistency. This results in constraints on the maximum ensemble size. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between climate change signals of precipitation and ETo. It is found that, for two medium-sized catchments in Belgium, uncoupling climate model runs used for calculation of change signals of precipitation and ETo amounts does not result in a significant bias for changes in extreme flow. With these results, future impact studies can be conducted with larger ensemble sizes, resulting in a more complete uncertainty estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to determine uncertainty in the gauged range of the stage-gauged discharge relationship for 622 rating curves from 171 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Hydrologic Reference streamgauging Stations (HRS). Water agencies use many methods to establish rating curves. Here we adopt a consistent method across all stations and develop rating curves based on Chebyshev polynomials, and estimate uncertainties from standard regression errors in which residuals from the polynomials are adjusted to ensure they are homoscedastic and normally distributed. Uncertainty in input water level is also taken into account. The median uncertainties in mean response of the available gauged discharge relationship at median daily discharges for the HRS dataset range from +4.5 to −4.2% (95% confidence band) and for individual gaugings from +29 to −22% incorporating a water level uncertainty of ±4 mm. The uncertainties estimated are consistent with values estimated in Australia and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The calculation of runoff and infiltration parameters is a fundamental task for water budget estimation and water resources management. The "Kenessey method" allows these values to be calculated and its use is widespread among water scientists and practitioners. Due to language barriers and inefficient translation in past decades, the method has undergone some misinterpretations and is now far from its original usefulness and purpose. The use of the modified method can give unreal results for specific climatic zones. The purpose of this paper is to point out these methodological variations and to return to the original approach, improving it with modern technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term data (2003-2015) on meltwater chemistry, mass balance and discharge of a benchmark glacier (Chhota Shigri Glacier, India) were studied to determine any association between these variables. To infer the factors governing the alteration of chemical weathering processes in glacierized basins, multi-annual records of the hydrochemical indices (Ca2++Mg2+/Na++K+) and the C-ratio were also examined. A succession of negative mass balance years has resulted in a decline in solute concentrations in the runoff, as discharge has increased. The (Ca2++Mg2+/Na++K+) and C-ratio are highest during periods of negative annual mass balance, when the spatial extent of the channelized drainage system increases. Conversely, these ratios are lowest in positive mass balance years, when the spatial extent of the channelized drainage system decreases, and chemical weathering in the distributed drainage system becomes more dominant. This paper is the first to show the inter-annual linkages between meltwater chemistry, mass balance and discharge for a valley glacier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new approach to fill missing data in hydrologic series. Based on a multiple-order autoregressive model, our algorithm represents the random term with an empirical distribution function that includes different parameters for the low, medium and high ranges of the modelled hydrologic variable. The algorithm involves a corrective mechanism that preserves the original statistical distribution of the series that are filled, while also eliminating the possibility of obtaining negative values for low flows. The algorithm requires multiple correlated hydrologic time series with sufficient data to permit accurate calculation of their statistical properties. It ensures that both the original statistical dependence among the data series and the statistical distribution functions will be preserved after the missing data had been filled. The model has been tested using 15 streamflow series in the Upper Bow River watershed in Alberta, Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of impervious surfaces in urban areas combined with the rise in the intensity of rainfall events as a result of climate change has led to dangerous increases in storm water flows. This paper discusses a new implementation of the fully distributed hydrological model Multi-Hydro (developed at École des Ponts ParisTech), when operating storage basins, and its ability to deal with high-resolution radar rainfall data. The peri-urban area of Massy (south of Paris, France) was selected as a case study for having six of these drainage facilities, used extensively in flood control. Two radar rainfall datasets with different spatiotemporal resolutions were used: Météo-France’s PANTHER rainfall product (C-band) and ENPC’s X-band DPSRI. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability was analysed statistically using Universal Multifractals (UM). Finally, to validate the application, the water level simulations were compared with local measurements in the Cora storage basin located next to the catchment’s single outlet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i)known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii)unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii)wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review assesses the potential of the African continent to contribute to the three main targets of the new science decade of IAHS (Panta Rhei): understanding, estimation and prediction, and science in practice. The continent has an extremely diverse climate and physical environment, and is faced with many problems in the interaction between hydrology and society. While inadequate financial and institutional resources often constrain the pursuit of high-level scientific research, there is substantial hydrological research capacity within Africa. The topics covered over the past decade have partly anticipated some of the research themes adopted as part of the Panta Rhei initiative. African hydrological scientists should therefore be in a better position to make future contributions, largely because their research is already grounded in applications linked to societal needs. Some of the papers reviewed and included in the special issue ofHydrological Sciences Journalintroduced in this paper reflect international partnerships, while others reflect emerging partnerships between institutions within Africa.Editor M Acreman [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper investigates whether the calibrated parameter values for two rainfall–runoff models based on historical observed data can be used to reliably predict runoff responses to changes in future climate inputs. Analyses are carried out using historical monthly climate and runoff data from 27 catchments in West and Central Africa. Better performances are obtained when the models are calibrated on a dry period to predict runoff in a wet period. Similarly, it is easier for the models calibrated on a period of large hydroclimatic variability to predict runoff in a period of small hydroclimatic variability than the contrary. This paper tests also the assumption that transferability of rainfall–runoff models, variable hydroclimatic conditions, and local sensitivity of the model parameters can be linked. The inconclusive results still show variability according to the chosen efficiency criteria and selected periods. All these results indicate that the transfer of model parameters from one period to another can introduce a significant error in runoff simulations, which means increased uncertainty in the assessment of impact of climate and environmental changes, an essential question for West and Central Africa.Editeur M.C. Acreman; Editeur associé Gil Mahé [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The ability of hydrological models to deal with changing conditions should not be taken for granted: it is an unfortunate but well-known problem of hydrology that the model structure and/or parameters optimized for certain conditions may not be transferable in time. Consequently, it is essential that, for application under changing conditions (e.g. in climate change impact studies), models be thoroughly assessed for their extrapolation capacity using adequate protocols. This editorial provides an overview of the Special Issue ofHydrological Sciences Journalcompiled after a workshop on this theme held during the General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Gothenburg (Sweden) in 2013. The Workshop participants had been invited to apply a calibration and evaluation protocol to their own models on a given set of changing basins. The results show that this protocol is an appropriate and instructive way of assessing the suitability of hydrological models to be applied under changing conditions. This special issue also includes papers following alternative testing methodologies, as well as an opinion paper on the definition of non-stationarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a Special Issue ofHydrological Sciences Journalcontaining 10 research papers which present current applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for water resources assessment. First, an overview of selected, recently published papers with application of SWAT is given. The papers address the following topics: nutrients and related best management practices (BMPs); sediments and related BMPs; impoundment and wetlands; irrigation; bioenergy crops; climate change impact; and land-use change impacts. Then, papers from this Special Issue are briefly described, covering the themes: surface runoff and sediments; nonpoint-source pollution; surface water and groundwater; impacts of climate and land-use change; and large-scale SWAT applications. The presented model applications of SWAT were conducted across a variety of spatial scales, physiographic regions and climatic zones. This collection of papers demonstrates that applications of SWAT for water resources assessment are growing in number and cover drainage basins in many regions worldwide.Editor M. Acreman; Associate editor Xi Chen [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is an invited essay by the Dooge Medallist of the 2017 International Hydrological Prize. The paper reflects a broad perspective on hydrology, as a result of the author’s long experience. It is suggested that transgressing the traditional hydrological perspective, by increasing the scale of research, as well as interdisciplinarization have been, and are likely to remain, key drivers of the development of hydrology. Gaps in knowledge and research challenges are reviewed, and the interlinked areas of stationarity, extremes and projections for the future are discussed. Finally, after reviewing the achievements of Jim Dooge, examples of others following in his footsteps are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of −5 to −17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing environment enhances the hydrological cycle and increases the frequency of extreme floods. In this paper, the impacts of climate variability on flood season segmentation are determined and the scientific basis for determining corresponding flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) is provided. Climate variation was determined and then the flood season was divided into several sub-seasons using the results of the set pair analysis method (SPAM) and four indices; peak floods crossing the transitional periods were sampled to obtain a design flood hydrograph; and, finally, seasonal FLWLs were determined for reservoir operation. The performance of this reservoir staging operation was evaluated for a case study in the Chengbihe Reservoir, China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water losses in the Sudd wetlands of South Sudan have significant effects on water resources available to Sudan and Egypt. These losses increased greatly after the dramatic rise of Lake Victoria in 1961-1964, but investigation into the cause and location of these increased losses has been hindered by the shortage of records after 1963 and their cessation after 1983. By linking flow records at key points within the Sudd with the distribution of vegetation before the rise, analysis of vegetation after the rise can throw light on the distribution of resulting losses and their causes. Although the increased flooding in the upper reaches of the Sudd has been noted, this paper draws attention to greatly increased inundation in the lower reaches, apparently from backwater flooding, which would affect any future proposal for the Jonglei Canal project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and seasonal variations of curve number (CN) and initial abstraction ratio (λ) in a watershed can result in inaccurate runoff volume estimations when using the US Natural Resources Conservation Service (SCS-CN) method with constant values for these parameters. In this paper, parameters of CN and λ are considered as calibration parameters and the sensitivity of estimated runoff to these parameters using the SCS-CN method is scrutinized. To incorporate the uncertainty associated with CN and λ, fuzzy linear regression (FLR) is applied to derive the relationships of CN and λ with rainfall depth (P) by employing a large dataset of storm events from four watersheds in Iran. Results indicate that the proposed approach provides more accuracy in estimation of runoff volume compared to the SCS method with constant values of CN and λ, and gives a straightforward technique for evaluating the hydrological effects of CN, λ, and P on runoff volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper comparatively assesses the performance of five data assimilation techniques for three-parameter Muskingum routing with a spatially lumped or distributed model structure. The assimilation techniques used include direct insertion (DI), nudging scheme (NS), Kalman filter (KF), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF), which are applied to river reaches in Texas and Louisiana, USA. For both lumped and distributed routing, results from KF, EnKF and AEnKF are sensitive to the error specification. As expected, DI outperformed the other models in the case of lumped modelling, while in distributed routing, KF approaches, particularly AEnKF and EnKF, performed better than DI or nudging, reflecting the benefit of updating distributed states through error covariance modelling in KF approaches. The results of this work would be useful in setting up data assimilation systems that employ increasingly abundant real-time observations using distributed hydrological routing models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of net rainfall, defined as the intermediate hydrological variable linked in between the hillslope and the river network, is a challenge. This paper presents a method for net rainfall estimation, using inverse modelling associated to a geomorphology-based transfer function. The analysis is carried out in semi-arid Tunisia, with a dataset from event discharges in a mesoscale dryland basin. A complete sensitivity analysis is developed, along with a discussion of validity limits for simplifying assumptions and the identification of paths for improvement. This work could be relevant for data-scarce areas, thanks to the use of simple dynamic conceptualization and being based on observable geomorphological features, adjusted to the available data and knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To promote the advancement of novel observation techniques that may lead to new sources of information to help better understand the hydrological cycle, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) established the Measurements and Observations in the XXI century (MOXXI) Working Group in July 2013. The group comprises a growing community of tech-enthusiastic hydrologists that design and develop their own sensing systems, adopt a multi-disciplinary perspective in tackling complex observations, often use low-cost equipment intended for other applications to build innovative sensors, or perform opportunistic measurements. This paper states the objectives of the group and reviews major advances carried out by MOXXI members toward the advancement of hydrological sciences. Challenges and opportunities are outlined to provide strategic guidance for advancement of measurement, and thus discovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A constrained total water-use policy has been implemented to maintain sustainable water supply in some water shortage areas. Managing a constrained water-use quota (T) in water allocation is a challenging goal. This paper proposes a new framework for water allocation under total water-use constraint by utilizing the concept of the Newsboy model, commonly used in operations management and applied economics, and applying it to the Dongjiang River Basin, South China. This framework considersTas a state variable of the objective function, rather than simply dealing with it as a constraint of multi-objective analysis. Using this framework, it is revealed how different schemes ofTplay out in water allocation, and water-use warning is provided for each sector and water governor in water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Artificial neural network (ANN) has been demonstrated to be a promising modelling tool for the improved prediction/forecasting of hydrological variables. However, the quantification of uncertainty in ANN is a major issue, as high uncertainty would hinder the reliable application of these models. While several sources have been ascribed, the quantification of input uncertainty in ANN has received little attention. The reason is that each measured input quantity is likely to vary uniquely, which prevents quantification of a reliable prediction uncertainty. In this paper, an optimization method, which integrates probabilistic and ensemble simulation approaches, is proposed for the quantification of input uncertainty of ANN models. The proposed approach is demonstrated through rainfall-runoff modelling for the Leaf River watershed, USA.  The results suggest that ignoring explicit quantification of input uncertainty leads to under/over estimation of model prediction uncertainty. It also facilitates identification of appropriate model parameters for better characterizing the hydrological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Multi-objective optimisation is being increasingly applied in water supply management to identify optimal operating options. However, a key challenge in the implementation of multi-objective optimisation is interpreting the large and multidimensional Pareto-optimal set. This paper shows how cluster, visual and post-optimisation analysis can aid the decision maker in addressing this challenge. This is demonstrated for a case study based on South East Queensland Water Grid, Australia, as part of a broader operational planning framework. Firstly, cluster analysis identifies a smaller set of representative options to aid in visual analysis. Secondly, visual analysis techniques are used to identify the trade-offs between objectives, the relationships between decision variables and objective performance, and to shortlist promising operating options. Finally, post-optimisation analysis techniques identify efficient operating options from the Pareto set, based on decision-maker preferences. Together these techniques can be used to identify a shortlist of operating options, for further consideration using multicriteria analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of missing rainfall data is an important problem for data analysis and modelling studies in hydrology. This paper develops a Bayesian method to address missing rainfall estimation from runoff measurements based on a pre-calibrated conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The Bayesian method assigns posterior probability of rainfall estimates proportional to the likelihood function of measured runoff flows and prior rainfall information, which is presented by uniform distributions in the absence of rainfall data. The likelihood function of measured runoff can be determined via the test of different residual error models in the calibration phase. The application of this method to a French urban catchment indicates that the proposed Bayesian method is able to assess missing rainfall and its uncertainty based only on runoff measurements, which provides an alternative to the reverse model for missing rainfall estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions has value in many water resources engineering applications (infrastructure planning, design, operations; climate forecasting, modelling). The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of precipitation regions to the temporal resolution (monthly, seasonal, annual and the annual maximum series) of the data. The presented method uses the fuzzyc-means clustering algorithm to partition climate sites into statistically homogeneous precipitation regions. The regions are validated using an approach based on L-moment statistics. The method is conducted in two climatically different study areas in western and eastern Canada. There does not appear to be a relationship between the spatial distributions of the regions formed using different temporal resolutions of the precipitation data. It is recommended to delineate precipitation regions that are specific to the task at hand, and to select a temporal resolution that is consistent with the final application of the regional precipitation dataset.EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Kjeldsen [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The tenets of sustainable development are often ignored by growing cities in developing countries. Salt Lake City, located on the eastern fringes of Kolkata, despite being a planned township, has failed to manage its water resources in a sustainable way. Results from the study show that the water supplied at the households is hard in nature, saline, and replete with dissolved solids. The problem is further aggravated due to over-extraction of groundwater resources, resulting in an intense fall of the groundwater level in the area. This paper attempts to suggest measures for sustainable water resource management, with particular emphasis on rainwater harvesting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The configuration of check dams and their numbers throughout a basin are important factors for reducing floods in downstream reaches of rivers. In this paper, a stochastic model based on surrogate modelling and Monte Carlo simulation, linked to an evolutionary optimization tool, is developed to assign the optimal sites and number of check dams on a stream network. To handle uncertainty of rainfall variables and their correlation structures, the copula method is employed and an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to emulate the computationally expensive hydrological model, HEC-HMS, within the optimization routines. The prepared modelling framework is applied to a mountainous basin to determine the arrangement of check dams in its sub-basins. The experimental results show that optimal strategies can reduce the expected value of peak flood discharges by up to 50%, with significantly lower costs or number of check dams, relative to a traditional approach with a large number of check dams in sub-basins, presenting a maximum of 21% efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Temporary flow patterns remain understudied, despite their wide distribution and their importance for managerial practices and river conservation. This paper explores an advanced procedure for the characterization and definition of temporary flow patterns based on the frequency, duration and magnitude of non-flow (cessation) periods. A detailed analysis of flow patterns was performed on 12 rivers of the Guadiana Basin in Southern Iberia (10 in Spain and 2 in Portugal). An open methodology that can allow managers to better characterize and improve the structure and functioning of those rivers is suggested. This methodology is based on inter- and intra-annual variability analysis and its integration with river ecotypes. Within the methodology, a set of parameters related to ecological features of temporary rivers is proposed for application. This methodology may contribute to a better definition of cessation periods and an integrated understanding of the flow requirements of temporary rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a novel method to estimate flow duration curves (FDCs) for ungauged catchments with permanent flow. It is based on a dataset of 521 catchments located throughout France. The method consists in a three-step procedure called the Quantile Solidarity (QS) approach. First, a regression-based model is built to estimate FDCs in ungauged catchments, linking each flow quantile independently to physical descriptors. The second step involves imposing the continuity of the regression-based model parameters along the quantiles (hence quantile solidarity) to obtain a large reduction in the number of parameters used to estimate the FDC. The last step consists in spatially interpolating the model residuals to further improve the performance of the FDC estimation. The QS approach yields a robust and parsimonious FDC estimation without any loss in simulation efficiency and ensures strictly monotonic FDCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a large-scale application of the SWAT model for water balance and natural streamflow simulation in the entire basins of the Vistula and the Odra, covering most of the territory of Poland. A tailored calibration approach was designed to achieve satisfactory goodness-of-fit across a range of catchment sizes. Model calibration and evaluation driven by high-resolution climate data showed overall good behaviour for 80 benchmark catchments divided into eight clusters, and spatial evaluation for 30 gauges showed that the designed regionalization scheme performed well (median KGE of 0.76). Basin-averaged estimates of blue and green water flow and green water storage estimated using the calibrated model were 185, 517 and 206 mm, respectively. This study provides a basis for future work, such as assessing climate change impacts on hydrology, assessing flow alterations, and water quality simulation. The model output is publicly available through an online research data archive (doi:10.4121/uuid:b8ab4f5f-f692-4c93-a910-2947aea28f42).EDITOR A. CastellarinASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Baseflows have declined for decades in the Lesser Himalaya but the causes are still debated. This paper compares variations in streamflow response over three years for two similar headwater catchments in northwest India with largely undisturbed (Arnigad) and highly degraded (Bansigad) oak forest. Hydrograph analysis suggested no catchment leakage, thereby allowing meaningful comparisons. The mean annual runoff coefficient for Arnigad was 54% (range 44–61%) against 62% (53–69%) at Bansigad. Despite greater total runoffQt(by 250 mm year–1), baseflow at Bansigad ceased by March, but was perennial at Arnigad (making up 90% ofQtvs. 51% at Bansigad). Arnigad storm flows,Qs, were modest (8–11% ofQt) and occurred mostly during monsoons (78–98%), whileQsat Bansigad was 49% ofQtand occurred also during post-monsoon seasons. Our results underscore the importance of maintaining soil water retention capacity after forest removal to maintain baseflow levels.EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the  effects  of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the annual maximum flood (AMF) and volume over threshold (VOT) in two major neighbouring river basins in southwest Iran are investigated. The basins are located upstream of the Dez and Karun-I dams and cover over 40 000 km2in total area. The effects of ENSO on the frequency, magnitude and severity (frequency times magnitude) of flood characteristics over the March–April period were analysed. ENSO indices were also correlated with both AMF and VOT. The results indicate that, in the Dez and Karun basins, the El Niño phenomenon intensifies March–April floods compared with neutral conditions. The opposite is true in La Niña conditions. The degree of the effect is more intense in the El Niño period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientists and water users are concerned about the potential impact on water resources, particularly during low-flow periods, of freshwater withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing (fracking). Therefore, the objective of this paper is to assess the potential impact of hydraulic fracturing on water resources in the Muskingum watershed of Eastern Ohio, USA, especially due to the trend of increased withdrawals for hydraulic fracking during drought years. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to generate 30 years of plausible future daily weather series in order to capture the possible dry periods. The data generated were incorporated in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to examine the level of impact due to fracking at various scales. Analyses showed that water withdrawal due to hydraulic fracking had a noticeable impact, especially during low-flow periods. Clear changes in the 7-day minimum flows were detected among baseline, current and future scenarios when the worst-case scenario was implemented. The headwater streams in the sub-watersheds were highly affected, with significant decrease in 7-day low flows. The flow alteration in hydrologically-based (7Q10, i.e. 7-day 10-year low flow) or biologically-based (4B3 and 1B3) design flows due to hydraulic fracking increased with decrease in the drainage area, indicating that the relative impact may not be as great for higher order streams. Nevertheless, change in the annual mean flow was limited to 10%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of the Hungry Horse Dam on streamflow dynamics in the South Fork of the Flathead River, Montana, USA. To this end, pre- and post-dam periods of raw and naturalized streamflow data were analysed. Pettitt’s change point analysis indicated a significant change point in streamflow dynamics due to dam construction. Complexities in the pre- and post-dam periods were evaluated by sample and multi-scale entropy analyses, and the entropies of the post-dam period were found to be higher than those of the pre-dam period. Possible reasons for this, unrelated to the natural hydrological cycle caused by the dam, were analysed using wavelet analyses. The wavelet analyses showed a clear change in the phase relationship between precipitation and streamflow. Finally, weak positive trends found in the hydrological variables indicated the effects of human activities (e.g. dam construction). The results also revealed distorted lead times, which can improve the streamflow forecasts for different lead times. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This opinion paper summarizes the results of an online survey on the role of experimental work in the hydrological sciences. The 20 survey questions covered various topics, such as advancements, needs, potentials and challenges in the hydrological sciences, and also touched on the issue of data sharing and data publication. A total of 336 hydrologists with both modelling and experimental backgrounds participated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong socio-economic growth of Quito has led to significant projects of inter-basin transfers, intensifying high-altitude resources mobilization in environmentally sensitive areas and with accelerated melting of glaciers. In order to study various future scenarios, we propose modelling of the climate/glacier/hydrology/water resources management continuum, applied to Andean basins. Using the tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP21), we developed: (1) semi-distributed hydro-climate modelling with monthly data using regional homogenization (vector method); (2) glacier modelling of water production and inter-annual evolution; (3) modelling in hydrological units depending on land cover; and (4) water management modelling distinguishing water rights, allocation and use. In this paper, we mainly present results of monthly hydrological calibrations (1963–2006), studying, in particular, the equifinality of various parameter settings. We show flexibility, robustness and limits of the proposed modelling, contributing to identification of uncertainties for evaluation of future scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]