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In this work, the role of initial conditions (ICs) and boundary conditions (BCs) in the predictability of natural flows of large river basins (>1000 km2) in South America using the South American Large Basins Model (MGB-SA) was investigated. We proposed an analysis based on a simple metric: predictability was estimated by the number of days in which the streamflow forecasts performed above a given threshold. The role of ICs was assessed through null precipitation experiments and the role of BCs through climatological rainfall. For experiments with a Kling-Gupta efficiency metric and threshold of 0.95, the study shows that streamflow predictability from the ICs is relatively high (up to 40 days) in the main river reaches of flat-relief basins. The increase in predictability due to climatology-based BCs mostly occurs in areas with high predictability based on ICs. Basins with fast response present low streamflow predictability (up to three days). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defining river networks from a digital elevation model (DEM) is a critical step in many hydrological studies. Most methods rely on analyses of flow accumulation based on a single drainage area threshold value. Landscape heterogeneity hinders the definition of drainage pixels by exceeding a threshold. In this study, we propose a method that automatically accounts for variable drainage density in the definition of river networks from relatively coarse DEMs by using the topographic position index (TPI) as an auxiliary variable, therefore calling it the Topographic Position-based Stream definition (TPS). We tested the TPS method with the 90 m resolution MERIT-DEM (Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain DEM) in Brazil, applying it to three river basins with contrasting landforms and climates. The method improved drainage representation in all analysed regions. It successfully represented stream networks with intra-basin variable drainage density by using a single DEM and three parameters, showing potential for hydrological applications at multiple spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides a spatio-temporal analysis of the great floods that occurred in South America in 1983 using hydrometeorological data and outputs from a continental-scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model. In the extreme year 1983, there were three main flooding periods (February, June and July) in many South American river basins, such as the Araguaia, Tocantins, São Francisco, Uruguay, La Plata and its tributaries, resulting in high discharge of the Paraguay River for many months. Depth–area–duration curves show that 3-day precipitation events in northern regions of South America were among the largest 15 events in the period 1980–2015 but only for specific locations, whereas in southern areas, the most extreme events in the same period were for larger durations (≥7-day precipitation). Modelled total export of water volume to the oceans indicates that rivers draining to the South Atlantic reached an anomaly of 3.7 during 1983, followed by 1998 (1.9) and 1992 (1.1), all of them corresponding to El Niño years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been proposed that linear regression curves can be used to estimate monthly climate variables from observed precipitation. This approach was explored by applying the MGB hydrological model to the Paraná Basin (Brazil). Linear regressions were obtained for 54 climate gauges, and most of them showed at least six months of significant correlation between monthly climate variables (sunlight hours and relative humidity) and precipitation. The regression equations were applied to 5201 raingauges to estimate monthly climate variables and evapotranspiration, and the results were compared with a scenario using long-term climate averages only. The main differences occurred in wetter periods, where negative correlations between monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration were obtained when using precipitation as a proxy. Long-term changes in the hydrological regime were assessed and showed that the effect of precipitation on relative humidity and sunlight hours seems to have a minor effect on the alterations observed in river discharge in the Paraná Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate comprehension of celerity (flood wave speed) dynamics is a key step for understanding flood wave propagation in rivers. We present the results of empirically estimated celerity values in 12 Brazilian rivers, and analyse the behaviour of celerity-discharge relationships (CxQ). Celerity was estimated with a reach-scale (RS) method, based on the peak travel time between stations; and with a local-scale (LS) method, based on the derivative of discharge-cross-section area relationships surveyed at gauging stations. The results indicate that the magnitudes of celerity values obtained by the methods are reasonably comparable, and can rarely be considered constant, varying with river discharge. Three reaches presented differing CxQ relationships at local and reach scales, which suggests that in situ cross-sections at gauging stations should not be extrapolated as representative of the whole reach for flood routing studies, and that CxQ relationship assessments might provide relevant insights for hydrological modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]