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The popular approach to select a suitable distribution to characterize extreme rainfall events relies on the assessment of its descriptive performance. This study examines an alternative approach to this task that evaluates, in addition to the descriptive performance of the models, their performance in estimating out-of-sample events (predictive performance). With a numerical experiment and a study case in São Paulo state, Brazil, we evaluated the adequacy of seven probability distributions widely used in hydrological analysis to characterize extreme events in the region and compared the selection process of both popular and altenative frameworks. The results indicate that (1) the popular approach is not capable of selecting distributions with good predictive performance and (2) combining different predictive and descriptive tests can improve the reliability of extreme event prediction. The proposed framework allowed the assessment of model suitability from a regional perspective, identifying the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as the most adequate to characterize extreme rainfall events in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

hydrological monitoring is essential for a proper decision-making process and modelling. Efforts have been made in Brazil to carry out field activities at the basin scale, but how complete and comprehensive are those studies? Where are they located? How long have they been carried out? What are the main findings? To answer these questions, an overview of experimental monitoring basins in Brazil is presented, listing their geographical locations, monitored variables, operational status, monitoring periods and main publications. We identified 60 monitored sites, spread across most Brazilian biomes, with an average monitoring period of 12 years. However, some publications from these monitoring studies are not fully accessible to the international community. Field hydrology activities in Brazil contribute to a better understanding of hydrological processes in humid and semi-arid regions and inform us about the impacts of land-use change on water quality and quantity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A system identification approach can be incorporated in groundwater time series analysis, revealing information concerning the local hydrogeological situation. The aim of this work was to analyse water table fluctuations in an outcrop area of the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) in Brotas/SP, Brazil, using data from a groundwater monitoring network. The water table dynamic was modelled using continuous time series models that reference the hydrogeological system upon which they operate. The model’s climatological inputs of precipitation and evapotranspiration generate impulse response (IR) functions with parameters that can be related to the physical conditions concerning the hydrological processes involved. The interpretation of the model parameters from two sets of monitoring wells selected at different land-use sites is presented, exemplifying the effect of different water table depths and the distance to the nearest drainage location. Systematic trends of water table depths were also identified from model parameters at specific periods and related to plant development, crop harvest and land-use changes.EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR L. Ruiz [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is a subsurface reservoir that contains the largest volume of fresh groundwater in South America. Despite the relevance of the GAS, a lack of attention has been paid to land use effects on its recharge. We present the most detailed long-term (2004–2011) results of land-use effects on recharge in an outcrop area of the GAS. Water table fluctuations (WTFs) were measured at 11 monitoring wells, which are distributed between different land uses (i.e. eucalyptus, sugarcane, citrus and grassland). Recharge was estimated using a point-scale method (WTF) for each monitored well. The annual recharge estimates for different land uses are eucalyptus forest (135 mm year-1), sugarcane (248 mm year-1), citrus areas (296 mm year-1) and grassland (401 mm year-1). The results indicate that the evapotranspiration seems to be a key parameter in the assessment of recharge in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]