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Seasonal precipitation estimation in ungauged mountainous areas is essential for understanding and modeling a physical variable of interest in many environmental applications (hydrology, ecology, and cryospheric studies). Precipitation lapse rates (PLRs), defined as the increasing or decreasing rate of precipitation amounts with the elevation, play a decisive role in high-altitude precipitation estimation. However, the documentation of PLR in mountainous regions remains weak even though their utilization in environmental applications is frequent. This article intends to assess the spatial variability and the spatial-scale dependence of seasonal PLRs in a varied and complex topographical region. At the regional scale (10 000 km 2), seven different precipitation products are compared in their ability to reproduce the altitude dependence of the annual/seasonal precipitation of 1836 stations located in France. The convection-permitting regional climate model (CP-RCM) AROME is the best in this regard, despite severe precipitation overestimation in high altitudes. The fine resolution of AROME allows for a precise assessment of the influence of altitude on winter and summer precipitation on 23 massifs at the sub-regional scale (∼ 1000 km 2) and 2748 small catchments (∼ 100 km 2) through linear regressions. With AROME, PLRs are often higher in winter at the catchment scale. The variability in the PLR is higher in high-altitude regions such as the French Alps, with higher PLRs at the border than inside the massifs. This study emphasizes the interest of conducting a PLR investigation at a fine scale to reduce spatial heterogeneity in the seasonal precipitation–altitude relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we compare the performance of three regionalization approaches in improving the at-site estimates of daily precipitation. The first method is built on the idea of conventional RFA (regional frequency analysis) but is based on a fast algorithm that defines distinct homogeneous regions relying on their upper-tail similarity. It uses only the precipitation data at hand without the need for any additional covariate. The second is based on the region-of-influence (ROI) approach in which neighborhoods, containing similar sites, are defined for each station. The third is a spatial method that adopts generalized additive model (GAM) forms for the model parameters. In line with our goal of modeling the whole range of positive precipitation, the chosen marginal distribution model is the extended generalized Pareto distribution (EGPD) to which we apply the three methods. We consider a dense network composed of 1176 daily stations located within Switzerland and in neighboring countries. We compute different criteria to assess the models' performance in the bulk of the distribution and the upper tail. The results show that all the regional methods offered improved robustness over the local EGPD model. While the GAM method is more robust and reliable in the upper tail, the ROI method is better in the bulk of the distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural risk studies such as flood risk assessments require long series of weather variables. As an alternative to observed series, which have a limited length, these data can be provided by weather generators. Among the large variety of existing ones, resampling methods based on analogues have the advantage of guaranteeing the physical consistency between local weather variables at each time step. However, they cannot generate values of predictands exceeding the range of observed values. Moreover, the length of the simulated series is typically limited to the length of the synoptic meteorological records used to characterize the large-scale atmospheric configuration of the generation day. To overcome these limitations, the stochastic weather generator proposed in this study combines two sampling approaches based on atmospheric analogues: (1) a synoptic weather generator in a first step, which recombines days of the 20th century to generate a 1000-year sequence of new atmospheric trajectories, and (2) a stochastic downscaling model in a second step applied to these atmospheric trajectories, in order to simulate long time series of daily regional precipitation and temperature. The method is applied to daily time series of mean areal precipitation and temperature in Switzerland. It is shown that the climatological characteristics of observed precipitation and temperature are adequately reproduced. It also improves the reproduction of extreme precipitation values, overcoming previous limitations of standard analogue-based weather generators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods often affect not only a single location, but also a whole region. Flood frequency analysis should therefore be undertaken at a regional scale which requires the considerations of the dependence of events at different locations. This dependence is often neglected even though its consideration is essential to derive reliable flood estimates. A model used in regional multivariate frequency analysis should ideally consider the dependence of events at multiple sites which might show dependence in the lower and/or upper tail of the distribution. We here seek to propose a simple model that on the one hand considers this dependence with respect to the network structure of the region and on the other hand allows for the simulation of stochastic event sets at both gauged and ungauged locations. The new Fisher copula model is used for representing the spatial dependence of flood events in the nested Thur catchment in Switzerland. Flood event samples generated for the gauged stations using the Fisher copula are compared to samples generated by other dependence models allowing for modeling of multivariate data including elliptical copulas, R-vine copulas, and max-stable models. The comparison of the dependence structures of the generated samples shows that the Fisher copula is a suitable model for capturing the spatial dependence in the data. We therefore use the copula in a way such that it can be used in an interpolation context to simulate event sets comprising gauged and ungauged locations. The spatial event sets generated using the Fisher copula well capture the general dependence structure in the data and the upper tail dependence, which is of particular interest when looking at extreme flood events and when extrapolating to higher return periods. The Fisher copula was for a medium-sized catchment found to be a suitable model for the stochastic simulation of flood event sets at multiple gauged and ungauged locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many multi-site stochastic models have been proposed for the generation of daily precipitation, but they generally focus on the reproduction of low to high precipitation amounts at the stations concerned. This paper proposes significant extensions to the multi-site daily precipitation model introduced by Wilks, with the aim of reproducing the statistical features of extremely rare events (in terms of frequency and magnitude) at different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the first extended version integrates heavy-tailed distributions, spatial tail dependence, and temporal dependence in order to obtain a robust and appropriate representation of the most extreme precipitation fields. A second version enhances the first version using a disaggregation method. The performance of these models is compared at different temporal and spatial scales on a large region covering approximately half of Switzerland. While daily extremes are adequately reproduced at the stations by all models, including the benchmark Wilks version, extreme precipitation amounts at larger temporal scales (e.g., 3-day amounts) are clearly underestimated when temporal dependence is ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical downscaling models (SDMs) are often used to produce local weather scenarios from large-scale atmospheric information. SDMs include transfer functions which are based on a statistical link identified from observations between local weather and a set of large-scale predictors. As physical processes driving surface weather vary in time, the most relevant predictors and the regression link are likely to vary in time too. This is well known for precipitation for instance and the link is thus often estimated after some seasonal stratification of the data. In this study, we present a two-stage analog/regression model where the regression link is estimated from atmospheric analogs of the current prediction day. Atmospheric analogs are identified from fields of geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa. For the regression stage, two generalized linear models are further used to model the probability of precipitation occurrence and the distribution of non-zero precipitation amounts, respectively. The two-stage model is evaluated for the probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation over France. It noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and amount. As the analog days vary from one prediction day to another, the atmospheric predictors selected in the regression stage and the value of the corresponding regression coefficients can vary from one prediction day to another. The model allows thus for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can also reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]