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Floods and flash floods are complex events, depending on weather dynamics, basin physiographical characteristics, land use cover and water management. For this reason, the prediction of such events usually deals with very accurate model tuning and validation, which is usually site-specific and based on climatological data, such as discharge time series or flood databases. In this work, we developed and tested two hydrological-stress indices for flood detection in the Italian Central Apennine District: a heterogeneous geographical area, characterized by complex topography and medium-to-small catchment extension. The proposed indices are threshold-based and developed considering operational requirements of National Civil Protection Department end-users. They are calibrated and tested through the application of signal theory, in order to overcome data scarcity over ungauged areas, as well as incomplete discharge time series. The validation has been carried out on a case study basis, using flood reports from various sources of information, as well as hydrometric-level time series, which represent the actual hydrological quantity monitored by Civil Protection operators. Obtained results show that the overall accuracy of flood prediction is greater than 0.8, with false alarm rates below 0.5 and the probability of detection ranging from 0.51 to 0.80. Moreover, the different nature of the proposed indices suggests their application in a complementary way, as the index based on drained precipitation appears to be more sensitive to rapid flood propagation in small tributaries, while the discharge-based index is particularly responsive to main-channel dynamics.

Lowland karst aquifers can generate unique wetland ecosystems which are caused by groundwater fluctuations that result in extensive groundwater–surface water interactions (i.e. flooding). However, the complex hydrogeological attributes of these systems, linked to extremely fast aquifer recharge processes and flow through well-connected conduit networks, often present difficulty in predicting how they will respond to changing climatological conditions. This study investigates the predicted impacts of climate change on a lowland karst catchment by using a semi-distributed pipe network model of the karst aquifer populated with output from the high spatial resolution (4 km) Consortium for Small-scale Modelling Climate Lokalmodell (COSMO-CLM) regional climate model simulations for Ireland. An ensemble of projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling from five different global climate models (GCMs), each based on four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to account for the uncertainty in the estimation of future global emissions of greenhouse gases. The one-dimensional hydraulic/hydrologic karst model incorporates urban drainage software to simulate open channel and pressurised flow within the conduits, with flooding on the land surface represented by storage nodes with the same stage volume properties of the physical turlough basins. The lowland karst limestone catchment is located on the west coast of Ireland and is characterised by a well-developed conduit-dominated karst aquifer which discharges to the sea via intertidal and submarine springs. Annual above ground flooding associated with this complex karst system has led to the development of unique wetland ecosystems in the form of ephemeral lakes known as turloughs; however, extreme flooding of these features causes widespread damage and disruption in the catchment. This analysis has shown that mean, 95th and 99th percentile flood levels are expected to increase by significant proportions for all future emission scenarios. The frequency of events currently considered to be extreme is predicted to increase, indicating that more significant groundwater flooding events seem likely to become far more common. The depth and duration of flooding is of extreme importance, both from an ecological perspective in terms of wetland species distribution and for extreme flooding in terms of the disruption to homes, transport links and agricultural land inundated by flood waters. The seasonality of annual flooding is also predicted to shift later in the flooding season, which could have consequences in terms of ecology and land use in the catchment. The investigation of increasing mean sea levels, however, showed that anticipated rises would have very little impact on groundwater flooding due to the marginal impact on ebb tide outflow volumes. Overall, this study highlights the relative vulnerability of lowland karst systems to future changing climate conditions, mainly due to the extremely fast recharge which can occur in such systems. The study presents a novel and highly effective methodology for studying the impact of climate change in lowland karst systems by coupling karst hydrogeological models with the output from high-resolution climate simulations.

The interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate–land–hydrological systems are crucial to society yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold-region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current-generation land-surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold-region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold-region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late 21st century.

Within the critical zone, regolith plays a key role in the fundamental hydrological functions of water collection, storage, mixing and release. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is recognized as a remarkable tool for characterizing the geometry and properties of the regolith, overcoming limitations inherent to conventional borehole-based investigations. For exploring shallow layers, a small electrode spacing (ES) will provide a denser set of apparent resistivity measurements of the subsurface. As this option is cumbersome and time-consuming, larger ES – albeit offering poorer shallow apparent resistivity data – is often preferred for large horizontal ERT surveys. To investigate the negative trade-off between larger ES and reduced accuracy of the inverted ERT images for shallow layers, we use a set of synthetic “conductive–resistive–conductive” three-layered soil–saprock/saprolite–bedrock models in combination with a reference field dataset. Our results suggest that an increase in ES causes a deterioration of the accuracy of the inverted ERT images in terms of both resistivity distribution and interface delineation and, most importantly, that this degradation increases sharply when the ES exceeds the thickness of the top subsurface layer. This finding, which is obvious for the characterization of shallow layers, is also relevant even when solely aiming for the characterization of deeper layers. We show that an oversized ES leads to overestimations of depth to bedrock and that this overestimation is even more important for subsurface structures with high resistivity contrast. To overcome this limitation, we propose adding interpolated levels of surficial apparent resistivity relying on a limited number of ERT profiles with a smaller ES. We demonstrate that our protocol significantly improves the accuracy of ERT profiles when using large ES, provided that the top layer has a rather constant thickness and resistivity. For the specific case of large-scale ERT surveys the proposed upgrading procedure is cost-effective in comparison to protocols based on small ES.

In late winter, solar radiation is the main driver of water motion in ice-covered lakes. The resulting circulation and mixing determine the spatial distribution of heat within the lake and affect the heat budget of the ice cover. Although under-ice lake warming is often modeled as a one-dimensional (1D) vertical process, lake bathymetry induces a relative excess heating of shallow waters, creating horizontal density gradients. This study shows that the dynamic response to these gradients depends sensitively on lake size and latitude – Earth's rotation – and is controlled by the Rossby number. In the ageostrophic limit, horizontal density gradients drive cross-shore circulation that transports excess heat to the lake interior, accelerating the under-ice warming there. In the geostrophic regime, the circulation of the near- and off-shore waters decouples, and excess heat is retained in the shallows. The flow regime controls the fate of this excess heat and its contribution to water-induced ice melt.

Soil moisture is highly variable in space, and its deficits (i.e. droughts) plays an important role in modulating crop yields and its variability across landscapes. Limited hydroclimate and yield data, however, hampers drought impact monitoring and assessment at the farmer field-scale. This study demonstrates the potential of field-scale soil moisture simulations to advance high-resolution agricultural yield prediction and drought monitoring at the smallholder farm field-scale. We present a multi-scale modeling approach that combines HydroBlocks, a physically-based hyper-resolution Land Surface Model (LSM), and machine learning. We applied HydroBlocks to simulate root zone soil moisture and soil temperature in Zambia at 3-hourly 30-m resolution. These simulations along with remotely sensed vegetation indices, meteorological conditions, and data describing the physical properties of the landscape (topography, land cover, soil properties) were combined with district-level maize data to train a random forest model (RF) to predict maize yields at the district- and field-scale (250-m) levels. Our model predicted yields with a coefficient of variation (R2) of 0.61, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 349 kg ha−1, and mean normalized error of 22 %. We captured maize losses due to the 2015/2016 El Niño drought at similar levels to losses reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Our results revealed that soil moisture is the strongest and most reliable predictor of maize yield, driving its spatial and temporal variability. Consequently, soil moisture was also the most effective indicator of drought impacts in crops when compared with precipitation, soil and air temperatures, and remotely-sensed NDVI-based drought indices. By combining field-scale root zone soil moisture estimates with observed maize yield data, this research demonstrates how field-scale modeling can help bridge the spatial scale discontinuity gap between drought monitoring and agricultural impacts.

The drought of 2018 in central and northern Europe showed once more the large impact that this natural hazard can have on the environment and society. Such droughts are often seen as slowly developing phenomena. However, root zone soil moisture deficits can rapidly develop during periods lacking precipitation and meteorological conditions that favor high evapotranspiration rates. These periods of soil moisture stress can persist for as long as the meteorological drought conditions last, thereby negatively affecting vegetation and crop health. In this study, we aim to characterize past soil moisture stress events over the croplands of southwestern Germany and, furthermore, to relate the characteristics of these past events to different soil and climate properties. We first simulated daily soil moisture over the period 1989–2018 on a 1 km resolution grid, using the physically based hydrological model TRAIN. We then derived various soil moisture stress characteristics, including probability, development time, and persistence, from the simulated time series of all agricultural grid cells (n≈15 000). Logistic regression and correlation were then applied to relate the derived characteristics to the plant-available storage capacity of the root zone and to the climatological setting. Finally, sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate how results changed when using a different parameterization of the root zone, i.e., soil based or fixed, or when assessing soil moisture drought (anomaly) instead of stress. Results reveal that the majority of agricultural grid cells across the study region reached soil moisture stress during prominent drought years. The development time of these soil moisture stress events varied substantially, from as little as 10 d to over 4 months. The persistence of soil moisture stress varied as well and was especially high for the drought of 2018. A strong control on the probability and development time of soil moisture stress was found to be the storage capacity of the root zone, whereas the persistence was not strongly linearly related to any of the considered controls. On the other hand, the sensitivity analyses revealed the increased control of climate on soil moisture stress characteristics when using a fixed instead of a soil-based root zone storage. Thus, the strength of different controls depends on the assumptions made during modeling. Nonetheless, the storage capacity of the root zone, whether it is a characteristic of the soil or a difference between a shallow or deep rooting crop, remains an important control on soil moisture stress characteristics. This is different for SM drought characteristics, which have little or contrasting relation with the storage capacity of the root zone. Overall, the results give insight to the large spatial and temporal variability in soil moisture stress characteristics and suggest the importance of considering differences in root zone soil storage for agricultural drought assessments.

Groundwater table dynamics extensively modify the volume of the hyporheic zone and the rate of hyporheic exchange processes. Understanding the effects of daily groundwater table fluctuations on the tightly coupled flow and heat transport within hyporheic zones is crucial for water resources management. With this aim in mind, a physically based model is used to explore hyporheic responses to varying groundwater table fluctuation scenarios. The effects of different timing and amplitude of groundwater table daily drawdowns under gaining and losing conditions are explored in hyporheic zones influenced by natural flood events and diel river temperature fluctuations. We find that both diel river temperature fluctuations and daily groundwater table drawdowns play important roles in determining the spatiotemporal variability of hyporheic exchange rates, temperature of exfiltrating hyporheic fluxes, mean residence times, and hyporheic denitrification potentials. Groundwater table dynamics present substantially distinct impacts on hyporheic exchange under gaining or losing conditions. The timing of groundwater table drawdown has a direct influence on hyporheic exchange rates and hyporheic buffering capacity on thermal disturbances. Consequently, the selection of aquifer pumping regimes has significant impacts on the dispersal of pollutants in the aquifer and thermal heterogeneity in the sediment.

Declining soil-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) as a result of saline and sodic irrigation water is a major cause of soil degradation. While it is understood that the mechanisms that lead to degradation can cause irreversible changes in Ks, existing models do not account for hysteresis between the degradation and rehabilitation processes. We develop the first model for the effect of saline and sodic water on Ks that explicitly includes hysteresis. As such, the idea that a soil's history of degradation and rehabilitation determines its future Ks lies at the center of this model. By means of a “weight” function, the model accounts for soil-specific differences, such as clay content. The weight function also determines the form of the hysteresis curves, which are not restricted to a single shape, as in some existing models for irreversible soil processes. The concept of the weight function is used to develop a reversibility index, which allows for the quantitative comparison of different soils and their susceptibility to irreversible degradation. We discuss the experimental setup required to find a soil's weight function and show how the weight function determines the degree to which Ks is reversible for a given soil. We demonstrate the feasibility of this procedure by presenting experimental results showcasing the presence of hysteresis in soil Ks and using these results to calculate a weight function. Past experiments and models on the decline of Ks due to salinity and sodicity focus on degradation alone, ignoring any characterization of the degree to which declines in Ks are reversible. Our model and experimental results emphasize the need to measure “reversal curves”, which are obtained from rehabilitation measurements following mild declines in Ks. The developed model has the potential to significantly improve our ability to assess the risk of soil degradation by allowing for the consideration of how the accumulation of small degradation events can cause significant land degradation.

Recent advances in soil moisture remote sensing have produced satellite data sets with improved soil moisture mapping under vegetation and with higher spatial and temporal resolutions. In this study, we evaluate the potential of a new, experimental version of the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil water index data set for multiple objective calibrations of a conceptual hydrologic model. The analysis is performed in 213 catchments in Austria for the period 2000–2014. An HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning)-type hydrologic model is calibrated based on runoff data, ASCAT soil moisture data, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover data for various calibration variants. Results show that the inclusion of soil moisture data in the calibration mainly improves the soil moisture simulations, the inclusion of snow data mainly improves the snow simulations, and the inclusion of both of them improves both soil moisture and snow simulations to almost the same extent. The snow data are more efficient at improving snow simulations than the soil moisture data are at improving soil moisture simulations. The improvements of both runoff and soil moisture model efficiencies are larger in low elevation and agricultural catchments than in others. The calibrated snow-related parameters are strongly affected by including snow data and, to a lesser extent, by soil moisture data. In contrast, the soil-related parameters are only affected by the inclusion of soil moisture data. The results indicate that the use of multiple remote sensing products in hydrological modeling can improve the representation of hydrological fluxes and prediction of runoff hydrographs at the catchment scale.

The streamflow of the Yellow River (YR) is strongly affected by human activities like irrigation and dam operation. Many attribution studies have focused on the long-term trends of streamflows, yet the contributions of these anthropogenic factors to streamflow fluctuations have not been well quantified with fully mechanistic models. This study aims to (1) demonstrate whether the mechanistic global land surface model ORCHIDEE (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic EcosystEms) is able to simulate the streamflows of this complex rivers with human activities using a generic parameterization for human activities and (2) preliminarily quantify the roles of irrigation and dam operation in monthly streamflow fluctuations of the YR from 1982 to 2014 with a newly developed irrigation module and an offline dam operation model. Validations with observed streamflows near the outlet of the YR demonstrated that model performances improved notably with incrementally considering irrigation (mean square error (MSE) decreased by 56.9 %) and dam operation (MSE decreased by another 30.5 %). Irrigation withdrawals were found to substantially reduce the river streamflows by approximately 242.8±27.8×108 m3 yr−1 in line with independent census data (231.4±31.6×108 m3 yr−1). Dam operation does not change the mean streamflows in our model, but it impacts streamflow seasonality, more than the seasonal change of precipitation. By only considering generic operation schemes, our dam model is able to reproduce the water storage changes of the two large reservoirs, LongYangXia and LiuJiaXia (correlation coefficient of ∼ 0.9). Moreover, other commonly neglected factors, such as the large operation contribution from multiple medium/small reservoirs, the dominance of large irrigation districts for streamflows (e.g., the Hetao Plateau), and special management policies during extreme years, are highlighted in this study. Related processes should be integrated into models to better project future YR water resources under climate change and optimize adaption strategies.

Streamflow is often the only variable used to evaluate hydrological models. In a previous international comparison study, eight research groups followed an identical protocol to calibrate 12 hydrological models using observed streamflow of catchments within the Meuse basin. In the current study, we quantify the differences in five states and fluxes of these 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance, in a systematic and comprehensive way. Next, we assess model behavior plausibility by ranking the models for a set of criteria using streamflow and remote-sensing data of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. We found substantial dissimilarities between models for annual interception and seasonal evaporation rates, the annual number of days with water stored as snow, the mean annual maximum snow storage and the size of the root-zone storage capacity. These differences in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Modeled annual evaporation rates are consistent with Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) estimates. However, there is a large uncertainty in modeled and remote-sensing annual interception. Substantial differences are also found between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and modeled number of days with snow storage. Models with relatively small root-zone storage capacities and without root water uptake reduction under dry conditions tend to have an empty root-zone storage for several days each summer, while this is not suggested by remote-sensing data of evaporation, soil moisture and vegetation indices. On the other hand, models with relatively large root-zone storage capacities tend to overestimate very dry total storage anomalies of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). None of the models is systematically consistent with the information available from all different (remote-sensing) data sources. Yet we did not reject models given the uncertainties in these data sources and their changing relevance for the system under investigation.

The spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in the dry (October–March) and wet (April–September) seasons over eastern China is examined from 1901–2016 based on the gridded rainfall dataset from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. Principal component analysis is employed to identify the dominant variability modes, wavelet coherence is utilized to investigate the spectral features of the leading modes of precipitation and their coherences with the large-scale modes of climate variability, and the Bayesian dynamical linear model is adopted to quantify the time-varying correlations between climate variability modes and rainfall in the dry and wet seasons. Results show that first and second principal components (PCs) account for 34.2 % (16.1 %) and 13.4 % (13.9 %) of the variance in the dry (wet) season, and their variations are roughly coincident with phase shifts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in both seasons. The anomalous moisture fluxes responsible for the occurrence of precipitation events in eastern China exhibit an asymmetry between high and light rainfall years in the dry (wet) season. The ENSO has a 4- to 8-year signal of the statistically positive (negative) association with rainfall during the dry (wet) season over eastern China. The statistically significant positive (negative) associations between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and precipitation are found with a 9- to 15-year (4- to 7-year) signal. The impacts of the PDO on rainfall in eastern China exhibit multiple timescales as compared to the ENSO episodes, while the PDO triggers a stronger effect on precipitation in the wet season than the dry half year. The interannual and interdecadal variations in rainfall over eastern China are substantially modulated by drivers originated from the Pacific Ocean. During the wet season, the ENSO exerted a gradually weakening effect on eastern China rainfall from 1901 to 2016, while the effects of the PDO decreased before the 1980s, and then shifted into increases after the 2000s. The finding provides a metric for assessing the capability of climate models and guidance of seasonal prediction.

Accurate, timely, and reliable precipitation observations are mandatory for hydrological forecast and early warning systems. In the case of convective precipitation, traditional rain gauge networks often miss precipitation maxima, due to density limitations and the high spatial variability of the rainfall field. Despite several limitations like attenuation or partial beam blocking, the use of C-band weather radar has become operational in most European weather services. Traditionally, weather-radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is derived from horizontal reflectivity data. Nevertheless, dual-polarization weather radar can overcome several shortcomings of the conventional horizontal-reflectivity-based estimation. As weather radar archives are growing, they are becoming increasingly important for climatological purposes in addition to operational use. For the first time, the present study analyses one of the longest datasets from fully operational polarimetric C-band weather radars; these are located in Estonia and Italy, in very different climate conditions and environments. The length of the datasets used in the study is 5 years for both Estonia and Italy. The study focuses on long-term observations of summertime precipitation and their quantitative estimations by polarimetric observations. From such derived QPEs, accumulations for 1 h, 24 h, and 1-month durations are calculated and compared with reference rain gauges to quantify uncertainties and evaluate performances. Overall, the radar products showed similar results in Estonia and Italy when compared to each other. The product where radar reflectivity and specific differential phase were combined based on a threshold exhibited the best agreement with gauge values in all accumulation periods. In both countries reflectivity-based rainfall QPE underestimated and specific differential-phase-based product overestimated gauge measurements.

With respect to ongoing discussions about the causes of energy imbalance and approaches to force energy balance closure, a method has been proposed that allows partial latent heat flux closure (Widmoser and Wohlfahrt, 2018). In the present paper, this method is applied to four measurement stations over grassland under humid and semiarid climates, where lysimeter (LY) and eddy covariance (EC) measurements were taken simultaneously. The results differ significantly from the ones reported in the literature. We distinguish between the resulting EC values being weakly and strongly correlated to LY observations as well as systematic and random deviations between the LY and EC values. Overall, an excellent match could be achieved between the LY and EC measurements after applying evaporation-linked weights. But there remain large differences between the standard deviations of the LY and adjusted EC values. For further studies we recommend data collected at time intervals even below 0.5 h. No correlation could be found between evaporation weights and weather indices. Only for some datasets, a positive correlation between evaporation and the evaporation weight could be found. This effect appears pronounced for cases with high radiation and plant water stress. Without further knowledge of the causes of energy imbalance one might perform full closure using equally distributed weights. Full closure, however, is not dealt with in this paper., Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, ISSN:1027-5606, ISSN:1607-7938

Spatiotemporally continuous estimates of the hydrologic cycle are often generated through hydrologic modeling, reanalysis, or remote sensing (RS) methods and are commonly applied as a supplement to, or a substitute for, in situ measurements when observational data are sparse or unavailable. This study compares estimates of precipitation (P), actual evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture (SM) from 87 unique data sets generated by 47 hydrologic models, reanalysis data sets, and remote sensing products across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Uncertainty between hydrologic component estimates was shown to be high in the western CONUS, with median uncertainty (measured as the coefficient of variation) ranging from 11 % to 21 % for P, 14 % to 26 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R, 76 % to 84 % for SWE, and 36 % to 96 % for SM. Uncertainty between estimates was lower in the eastern CONUS, with medians ranging from 5 % to 14 % for P, 13 % to 22 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R, 53 % to 63 % for SWE, and 42 % to 83 % for SM. Interannual trends in estimates from 1982 to 2010 show common disagreement in R, SWE, and SM. Correlating fluxes and stores against remote-sensing-derived products show poor overall correlation in the western CONUS for ET and SM estimates. Study results show that disagreement between estimates can be substantial, sometimes exceeding the magnitude of the measurements themselves. The authors conclude that multimodel ensembles are not only useful but are in fact a necessity for accurately representing uncertainty in research results. Spatial biases of model disagreement values in the western United States show that targeted research efforts in arid and semiarid water-limited regions are warranted, with the greatest emphasis on storage and runoff components, to better describe complexities of the terrestrial hydrologic system and reconcile model disagreement.

Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

Riparian countries have their respective values and priorities for water management, and their values of shared water have fundamental impacts for their propensity to be involved in cooperative management and adhere to treaties/agreements. However, there is limited understanding of the changing values and interests of each riparian country. Taking the Lancang–Mekong River basin as a case study, this paper aims to analyse the evolution of water conflict and cooperation dynamics from the perspectives of multiple countries. Newspaper articles were used as the key data source as they provide insights into events reported on by the media that are representative of each country/sector they are published within. The results depict a trend of cooperative sentiments towards water events occurring within the region. The six riparian countries (China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam) had a greater average sentiment score (0.5) for cooperation than international countries (0.16) for the majority of the study period. The trend also shows that countries further downstream showed lower cooperative sentiments, except for Vietnam (China 0.86, Myanmar 0.58, Laos 0.46, Thailand 0.34, Cambodia 0.13, Vietnam 0.91). Dam infrastructure was often negatively reported (60 % of negatively reported articles), which is therefore a major contributor to conflict for the Lancang–Mekong River basin. Events that are positively reported are those that aid in connecting leaders and project developers between riparian countries including meetings, bilateral and multilateral cooperation, and development projects. These findings provide the basis for further revealing the mechanism of cooperation and conflicts as well as more proactively managing cooperation and conflict in the Lancang–Mekong River basin and beyond.

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 (L4) product provides global estimates of surface soil moisture (SSM) and root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) via the assimilation of SMAP brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). Here, using in situ measurements from 2474 sites in China, we evaluate the performance of soil moisture estimates from the L4 data assimilation (DA) system and from a baseline “open-loop” (OL) simulation of CLSM without Tb assimilation. Using random forest regression, the efficiency of the L4 DA system (i.e., the performance improvement in DA relative to OL) is attributed to eight control factors related to the CLSM as well as τ–ω radiative transfer model (RTM) components of the L4 system. Results show that the Spearman rank correlation (R) for L4 SSM with in situ measurements increases for 77 % of the in situ measurement locations (relative to that of OL), with an average R increase of approximately 14 % (ΔR=0.056). RZSM skill is improved for about 74 % of the in situ measurement locations, but the average R increase for RZSM is only 7 % (ΔR=0.034). Results further show that the SSM DA skill improvement is most strongly related to the difference between the RTM-simulated Tb and the SMAP Tb observation, followed by the error in precipitation forcing data and estimated microwave soil roughness parameter h. For the RZSM DA skill improvement, these three dominant control factors remain the same, although the importance of soil roughness exceeds that of the Tb simulation error, as the soil roughness strongly affects the ingestion of DA increments and further propagation to the subsurface. For the skill of the L4 and OL estimates themselves, the top two control factors are the precipitation error and the SSM–RZSM coupling strength error, both of which are related to the CLSM component of the L4 system. Finally, we find that the L4 system can effectively filter out errors in precipitation. Therefore, future development of the L4 system should focus on improving the characterization of the SSM–RZSM coupling strength.

Reliable historical manual measurements of snow depths are available for many years, sometimes decades, across the globe, and increasingly snow depth data are also available from automatic stations and remote sensing platforms. In contrast, records of snow water equivalent (SWE) are sparse, which is significant as SWE is commonly the most important snowpack feature for hydrology, climatology, agriculture, natural hazards, and other fields. Existing methods of modeling SWE either rely on detailed meteorological forcing being available or are not intended to simulate individual SWE values, such as seasonal “peak SWE”. Here we present a new semiempirical multilayer model, Δsnow, for simulating SWE and bulk snow density solely from a regular time series of snow depths. The model, which is freely available as an R package, treats snow compaction following the rules of Newtonian viscosity, considers errors in measured snow depth, and treats overburden loads due to new snow as additional unsteady compaction; if snow is melted, the water mass is stepwise distributed from top to bottom in the snowpack. Seven model parameters are subject to calibration. Snow observations of 67 winters from 14 stations, well-distributed over different altitudes and climatic regions of the Alps, are used to find an optimal parameter setting. Data from another 71 independent winters from 15 stations are used for validation. Results are very promising: median bias and root mean square error for SWE are only −3.0 and 30.8 kg m−2, and +0.3 and 36.3 kg m−2 for peak SWE, respectively. This is a major advance compared to snow models relying on empirical regressions, and even sophisticated thermodynamic snow models do not necessarily perform better. As such, the new model offers a means to derive robust SWE estimates from historical snow depth data and, with some modification, to generate distributed SWE from remotely sensed estimates of spatial snow depth distribution.

Recent studies have shown evidence of increasing and decreasing trends for average floods and flood quantiles across Europe. Studies attributing observed changes in flood peaks to their drivers have mostly focused on the average flood behaviour, without distinguishing small and large floods. This paper proposes a new framework for attributing flood changes to potential drivers, as a function of return period (T), in a regional context. We assume flood peaks to follow a non-stationary regional Gumbel distribution, where the median flood and the 100-year growth factor are used as parameters. They are allowed to vary in time and between catchments as a function of the drivers quantified by covariates. The elasticities of floods with respect to the drivers and the contributions of the drivers to flood changes are estimated by Bayesian inference. The prior distributions of the elasticities of flood quantiles to the drivers are estimated by hydrological reasoning and from the literature. The attribution model is applied to European flood and covariate data and aims at attributing the observed flood trend patterns to specific drivers for different return periods at the regional scale. We analyse flood discharge records from 2370 hydrometric stations in Europe over the period 1960–2010. Extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt are the potential drivers of flood change considered in this study. Results show that, in northwestern Europe, extreme precipitation mainly contributes to changes in both the median (q2) and 100-year flood (q100), while the contributions of antecedent soil moisture are of secondary importance. In southern Europe, both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation contribute to flood changes, and their relative importance depends on the return period. Antecedent soil moisture is the main contributor to changes in q2, while the contributions of the two drivers to changes in larger floods (T>10 years) are comparable. In eastern Europe, snowmelt drives changes in both q2 and q100.

A popular parameterized soil water retention curve (SWRC) has a hydraulic conductivity curve associated with it that can have a physically unacceptable infinite slope at saturation. The problem was eliminated before by giving the SWRC a non-zero air entry value. This improved version still has an asymptote at the dry end, which limits its usefulness for dry conditions and causes its integral to diverge for commonly occurring parameter values. We therefore joined the parameterizations' sigmoid midsection to a logarithmic dry section ending at zero water content for a finite matric potential, as was done previously for a power-law-type SWRC. We selected five SWRC parameterizations that had been proven to produce unproblematic near-saturation conductivities and fitted these and our new curve to data from 21 soils. The logarithmic dry branch gave more realistic extrapolations into the dry end of both the retention and the conductivity curves than an asymptotic dry branch. We tested the original curve, its first improvement, and our second improvement by feeding them into a numerical model that calculated evapotranspiration and deep drainage for nine combinations of soils and climates. The new curve was more robust than the other two. The new curve was better able to produce a conductivity curve with a substantial drop during the early stages of drying than the earlier improvement. It therefore generated smaller amounts of more evenly distributed deep drainage compared to the spiked response to rainfall produced by the earlier improvement.

The previous comparative studies on watersheds were mostly based on the comparison of dispersive characteristics, which lacked systemicity and causality. We proposed a causal structure-based framework for basin comparison based on the Bayesian network (BN) and focus on the basin-scale water–energy–food–ecology (WEFE) nexus. We applied it to the Syr Darya River basin (SDB) and the Amu Darya River basin (ADB), of which poor water management caused the Aral Sea disaster. The causality of the nexus was effectively compared and universality of this framework was discussed. In terms of changes in the nexus, the sensitive factor for the water supplied to the Aral Sea changed from the agricultural development during the Soviet Union period to the disputes in the WEFE nexus after the disintegration. The water–energy contradiction of the SDB is more severe than that of the ADB, partly due to the higher upstream reservoir interception capacity. It further made management of the winter surplus water downstream of the SDB more controversial. Due to this, the water–food–ecology conflict between downstream countries may escalate and turn into a long-term chronic problem. Reducing water inflow to depressions and improving the planting structure prove beneficial to the Aral Sea ecology, and this effect of the SDB is more significant. The construction of reservoirs on the Panj River of the upstream ADB should be cautious to avoid an intense water–energy conflict such as the SDB's. It is also necessary to promote the water-saving drip irrigation and to strengthen the cooperation.

Agricultural production and food prices are affected by hydroclimatic extremes. There has been a growing amount of literature measuring the impacts of individual extreme events (heat stress or water stress) on agricultural and human systems. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the significance and the magnitude of the impacts of compound extremes. This study combines a fine-scale weather product with outputs of a hydrological model to construct functional metrics of individual and compound hydroclimatic extremes for agriculture. Then, a yield response function is estimated with individual and compound metrics, focusing on corn in the United States during the 1981–2015 period. Supported by statistical evidence, the findings suggest that metrics of compound hydroclimatic extremes are better predictors of corn yield variations than metrics of individual extremes. The results also confirm that wet heat is more damaging than dry heat for corn. This study shows the average yield damage from heat stress has been up to four times more severe when combined with water stress.

Timely and accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is indispensable for agricultural water management for efficient water use. This study aims to estimate the amount of ET0 with machine learning approaches by using minimum meteorological parameters in the Corum region, which has an arid and semi-arid climate and is regarded as an important agricultural centre of Turkey. In this context, monthly averages of meteorological variables, i.e. maximum and minimum temperature; sunshine duration; wind speed; and average, maximum, and minimum relative humidity, are used as inputs. Two different kernel-based methods, i.e. Gaussian process regression (GPR) and support vector regression (SVR), together with a Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno artificial neural network (BFGS-ANN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models were used to estimate ET0 amounts in 10 different combinations. The results showed that all four methods predicted ET0 amounts with acceptable accuracy and error levels. The BFGS-ANN model showed higher success (R2=0.9781) than the others. In kernel-based GPR and SVR methods, the Pearson VII function-based universal kernel was the most successful (R2=0.9771). Scenario 5, with temperatures including average temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, and sunshine duration as inputs, gave the best results. The second best scenario had only the sunshine duration as the input to the BFGS-ANN, which estimated ET0 having a correlation coefficient of 0.971 (Scenario 8). Conclusively, this study shows the better efficacy of the BFGS in ANNs for enhanced performance of the ANN model in ET0 estimation for drought-prone arid and semi-arid regions.

Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated with an intensification of extreme rainfall events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since it is a proxy for agricultural droughts, and the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on runoff generation. This study focuses on 10 sites, located in southern France, with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations for a 10-year time period. Soil moisture is simulated at each site at the hourly time step using a model of soil water content. The sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (the Neyman–Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation. Results show that soil moisture is more impacted by changes in precipitation intermittence than precipitation intensity and temperature. Overall, increased temperature and precipitation intensity associated with more intermittent precipitation leads to decreased soil moisture and an increase in the annual number of days with dry soil moisture conditions. In particular, a temperature increase of +4 ∘C combined with a decrease of annual rainfall between 10 % and 20 %, corresponding to the current available climate scenarios for the Mediterranean, lead to a lengthening of the drought period from June to October with an average of +28 d of soil moisture drought per year.

Alpine streams are particularly valuable for downstream water resources and of high ecological relevance; however, a detailed understanding of water storage and release in such heterogeneous environments is often still lacking. Observations of naturally occurring tracers, such as stable isotopes of water or electrical conductivity, are frequently used to track and explain hydrologic patterns and processes. Importantly, some of these hydrologic processes also create microhabitat variations in Alpine aquatic systems, each inhabited by characteristic organismal communities. The inclusion of such ecological diversity in a hydrologic assessment of an Alpine system may improve our understanding of hydrologic flows while also delivering biological information. Recently, the application of environmental DNA (eDNA) to assess biological diversity in water and connected habitats has gained popularity in the field of aquatic ecology. A few of these studies have started to link aquatic diversity with hydrologic processes but hitherto never in an Alpine system. Here, we collected water from an Alpine catchment in Switzerland and compared the genetic information of eukaryotic organisms conveyed by eDNA with the hydrologic information conveyed by naturally occurring hydrologic tracers. Between March and September 2017, we sampled water at multiple time points at 10 sites distributed over the 13.4 km2 Vallon de Nant catchment (Switzerland). The sites corresponded to three different water types and habitats, namely low-flow or ephemeral tributaries, groundwater-fed springs, and the main channel receiving water from both previous mentioned water types. Accompanying observations of typical physicochemical hydrologic characteristics with eDNA revealed that in the main channel and in the tributaries, the biological richness increases according to the change in streamflow, dq/dt, whereas, in contrast, the richness in springs increased in correlation with electrical conductivity. At the catchment scale, our results suggest that transport of additional, and probably terrestrial, DNA into water storage or flow compartments occurs with increasing streamflow. Such processes include overbank flow, stream network expansion, and hyporheic exchange. In general, our results highlight the importance of considering the at-site sampling habitat in combination with upstream connected habitats to understand how streams integrate eDNA over a catchment and to interpret spatially distributed eDNA samples, both for hydrologic and biodiversity assessments. At the intersection of two disciplines, our study provides complementary knowledge gains and identifies the next steps to be addressed for using eDNA to achieve complementary insights into Alpine water sources. Finally, we provide recommendations for future observation of eDNA in Alpine stream ecosystems.

The improvement of a forecasting system and the continuous evaluation of its quality are recurrent steps in operational practice. However, the systematic evaluation of forecast value or usefulness for better decision-making is less frequent, even if it is also essential to guide strategic planning and investments. In the hydropower sector, several operational systems use medium-range hydrometeorological forecasts (up to 7–10 d ahead) and energy price predictions as input to models that optimize hydropower production. The operation of hydropower systems, including the management of water stored in reservoirs, is thus partially impacted by weather and hydrological conditions. Forecast value can be quantified by the economic gains obtained with the optimization of operations informed by the forecasts. In order to assess how much improving the quality of hydrometeorological forecasts will improve their economic value, it is essential to understand how the system and its optimization model are sensitive to sequences of input forecasts of different quality. This paper investigates the impact of 7 d streamflow forecasts of different quality on the management of hydroelectric reservoirs and the economic gains generated from a linear programming optimization model. The study is based on a conceptual approach. Flows from 10 catchments in France are synthetically generated over a 4-year period to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. These forecasts define the inflows to 10 hydroelectric reservoirs, which are conceptually parameterized. Relationships between forecast quality and economic value (hydropower revenue) show that forecasts with a recurrent positive bias (overestimation) and low accuracy generate the highest economic losses when compared to the reference management system where forecasts are equal to observed inflows. The smallest losses are observed for forecast systems with underdispersion reliability bias, while forecast systems with negative bias (underestimation) show intermediate losses. Overall, the losses (which amount to millions of Euros) represent approximately 1 % to 3 % of the revenue over the study period. Besides revenue, the quality of the forecasts also impacts spillage, stock evolution, production hours and production rates, with systematic over- and underestimations being able to generate some extreme reservoir management situations.

In cities around the world, urban green spaces provide a range of benefits and ecosystem services. However, recent years have shown how prolonged warm and dry periods can affect urban water resources and lead to water stress in vegetation in urban green spaces, even in temperate regions. Consequently, quantitative knowledge about ecohydrological partitioning in different types of urban green space is crucial for balancing sustainable water needs in cities during future challenges of increasing urbanization and climate warming. Using isotopic tracers in precipitation and soil water, along with conventional hydrometric measurements in a plot-scale study in Berlin, Germany, we investigated water partitioning under different generic types of urban vegetation (grassland, shrub and trees). This allowed for the assessment of urban vegetation effects on evapotranspiration, subsurface flow paths and storage during a prolonged drought period with episodic rainfall. Despite higher soil evaporation losses under urban grassland, higher interception and transpiration likely contributed to slower turnover of soil water and older groundwater recharge under urban trees. Shrub vegetation seemed to be most resilient to prolonged drought periods, with lower evapotranspiration losses. Our results contribute to a better understanding of ecohydrological partitioning under mixed urban vegetation communities and an evidence base for better adaptive management of urban water and irrigation strategies to sustainably meet the water demands of urban green spaces in the future.

The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL (a topography-based hydrological model) was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments, the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL. A final section addresses the question of what might be done now in seeking a simple, parametrically parsimonious model of hillslope and small catchment processes if we were starting again.

Groundwater is the main source of freshwater and maintains streamflow during drought. Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on the systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. We performed groundwater model experiments using three different generic stress tests to estimate the groundwater and baseflow drought sensitivity to changes in recharge. The stress tests stem from a stakeholder co-design process that specifically followed the idea of altering known drought events from the past, i.e. asking whether altered recharge could have made a particular event worse. Across Germany, groundwater responses to the stress tests are highly heterogeneous, with groundwater heads in the north more sensitive to long-term recharge and in the Central German Uplands to short-term recharge variations. Baseflow droughts are generally more sensitive to intra-annual dynamics, and baseflow responses to the stress tests are smaller compared to the groundwater heads. The groundwater drought recovery time is mainly driven by the hydrogeological conditions, with slow (fast) recovery in the porous (fractured rock) aquifers. In general, a seasonal shift of recharge (i.e. less summer recharge and more winter recharge) will have lesser effects on groundwater and baseflow drought severity. A lengthening of dry spells might cause much stronger responses, especially in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation. Water management may need to consider the spatially different sensitivities of the groundwater system and the potential for more severe groundwater droughts in the large porous aquifers following prolonged meteorological droughts, particularly in the context of climate change projections indicating stronger seasonality and more severe drought events.

With the increasing frequency and severity of fire, there is an increasing desire to better manage fuels and minimize, as much as possible, the impacts of fire on soils and other natural resources. Piling and/or burning slash is one method of managing fuels and reducing the risk and consequences of wildfire, but the repercussions to the soil, although very localized, can be significant and often irreversible. In an effort to provide a tool to better understand the impact of fire on soils, this study outlines the improvements to and the in situ validation of a nonequilibrium model for simulating the coupled interactions and transport of heat, moisture and water vapor during fires. Improvements to the model eliminate the following two important (but heretofore universally overlooked) inconsistencies: one that describes the relationship between evaporation and condensation in the parameterization of the nonequilibrium vapor source term, and the other that is the incorrect use of the apparent thermal conductivity in the soil heat flow equation. The first of these made a small enhancement in the stability and performance of the model. The second is an important improvement in the physics underpinning the model but had less of an impact on the model's performance and stability than the first. This study also (a) develops a general heating function that describes the energy input to the soil surface by the fire and (b) discusses the complexities and difficulties of formulating the upper boundary condition from a surface energy balance approach. The model validation uses (in situ temperature, soil moisture and heat flux) data obtained in a 2004 experimental slash pile burn. Important temperature-dependent corrections to the instruments used for measuring soil heat flux and moisture are also discussed and assessed. Despite any possible ambiguities in the calibration of the sensors or the simplicity of the parameterization of the surface heating function, the difficulties and complexities of formulating the upper boundary condition and the obvious complexities of the dynamic response of the soil's temperature and heat flux, the model produced at least a very credible, if not surprisingly good, simulation of the observed data. This study then continues with a discussion and sensitivity analysis of some important feedbacks (some of which are well known and others that are more hypothetical) that are not included in the present (or any extant) model, but that undoubtedly are dynamically influencing the physical properties of the soil in situ during the fire and, thereby, modulating the behavior of the soil temperature and moisture. This paper concludes with a list of possible future observational and modeling studies and how they would advance the research and findings discussed here.

Drought is a devastating natural hazard that is difficult to define, detect and quantify. The increased availability of both meteorological and remotely sensed data provides an opportunity to develop new methods to identify drought conditions and characterize how drought changes over space and time. In this paper, we applied the surface energy balance model, SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System), for the period 2001–2018, to estimate evapotranspiration and other energy fluxes over the dehesa area of the Iberian Peninsula, with a monthly temporal resolution and 0.05∘ pixel size. A satisfactory agreement was found between the fluxes modeled and the measurements obtained for 3 years by two flux towers located over representative sites (RMSD = 21 W m−2 and R2=0.76, on average, for all energy fluxes and both sites). The estimations of the convective fluxes (LE and H) showed higher deviations, with RMSD = 26 W m−2 on average, than Rn and G, with RMSD = 15 W m−2. At both sites, annual evapotranspiration (ET) was very close to total precipitation, with the exception of a few wet years in which intense precipitation events that produced high runoff were observed. The analysis of the anomalies of the ratio of ET to reference ET (ETo) was used as an indicator of agricultural drought on monthly and annual scales. The hydrological years 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 stood out for their negative values. The first one was the most severe of the series, with the highest impact observed on vegetation coverage and grain production. On a monthly scale, this event was also the longest and most intense, with peak negative values in January–February and April–May 2005, explaining its great impact on cereal production (up to 45 % reduction). During the drier events, the changes in the grasslands' and oak trees' ground cover allowed for a separate analysis of the strategies adopted by the two strata to cope with water stress. These results indicate that the drought events characterized for the period did not cause any permanent damage to the vegetation of dehesa systems. The approach tested has proven useful for providing insight into the characteristics of drought events over this ecosystem and will be helpful to identify areas of interest for future studies at finer resolutions.

The complementary principle has been widely used to estimate evaporation under different conditions. However, it remains unclear at which timescale the complementary principle performs best. In this study, evaporation estimations were conducted at 88 eddy covariance (EC) monitoring sites at multiple timescales (daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly) by using sigmoid and polynomial generalized complementary functions. The results indicate that the generalized complementary functions exhibit the highest skill in estimating evaporation at the monthly scale. The uncertainty analysis shows that this conclusion is not affected by ecosystem type or energy balance closure method. Through comparisons at multiple timescales, we found that the slight difference between the two generalized complementary functions only exists when the independent variable (x) in the functions approaches 1. The results differ for the two models at daily and weekly scales. However, such differences vanish at monthly and annual timescales, with few high x values occurring. This study demonstrates the applicability of generalized complementary functions across multiple timescales and provides a reference for choosing a suitable time step for evaporation estimations in relevant studies.

Substantial biases exist in satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) over complex terrain regions, and it has always been a challenge to quantify and correct such biases. The combination of multiple SPEs and rain gauge observations would be beneficial to improve the gridded precipitation estimates. In this study, a two-stage blending (TSB) approach is proposed, which firstly reduces the systematic errors of the original SPEs based on a Bayesian correction model and then merges the bias-corrected SPEs with a Bayesian weighting model. In the first stage, the gauge-based observations are assumed to be a generalized regression function of the SPEs and terrain feature. In the second stage, the relative weights of the bias-corrected SPEs are calculated based on the associated performances with ground references. The proposed TSB method has the ability to extract benefits from the bias-corrected SPEs in terms of higher performance and mitigate negative impacts from the ones with lower quality. In addition, Bayesian analysis is applied in the two phases by specifying the prior distributions on model parameters, which enables the posterior ensembles associated with their predictive uncertainties to be produced. The performance of the proposed TSB method is evaluated with independent validation data in the warm season of 2010–2014 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the blended SPE is greatly improved compared to the original SPEs, even in heavy rainfall events. This study can be expanded as a data fusion framework in the development of high-quality precipitation products in any region of interest.

Bivariate wavelet coherency is a measure of correlation between two variables in the location–scale (spatial data) or time–frequency (time series) domain. It is particularly suited to geoscience, where relationships between multiple variables differ with locations (times) and/or scales (frequencies) because of the various processes involved. However, it is well-known that bivariate relationships can be misleading when both variables are dependent on other variables. Partial wavelet coherency (PWC) has been proposed to detect scale-specific and localized bivariate relationships by excluding the effects of other variables but is limited to one excluding variable and provides no phase information. We aim to develop a new PWC method that can deal with multiple excluding variables and provide phase information. Both stationary and non-stationary artificial datasets with the response variable being the sum of five cosine waves at 256 locations are used to test the method. The new method was also applied to a free water evaporation dataset. Our results verified the advantages of the new method in capturing phase information and dealing with multiple excluding variables. Where there is one excluding variable, the new PWC implementation produces higher and more accurate PWC values than the previously published PWC implementation that mistakenly considered bivariate real coherence rather than bivariate complex coherence. We suggest the PWC method is used to untangle scale-specific and localized bivariate relationships after removing the effects of other variables in geosciences. The PWC implementations were coded with Matlab and are freely accessible (https://figshare.com/s/bc97956f43fe5734c784, last access: 14 January 2021).

The USA and Canada have entered negotiations to modernize the Columbia River Treaty, signed in 1961. Key priorities are balancing flood risk and hydropower production, and improving aquatic ecosystem function while incorporating projected effects of climate change. In support of the US effort, Chegwidden et al. (2017) developed a large-ensemble dataset of past and future daily streamflows at 396 sites throughout the Columbia River basin (CRB) and selected other watersheds in western Washington and Oregon, using state-of-the art climate and hydrologic models. In this study, we use that dataset to present new analyses of the effects of future climate change on flooding using water year maximum daily streamflows. For each simulation, flood statistics are estimated from generalized extreme value distributions fit to simulated water year maximum daily streamflows for 50-year windows of the past (1950–1999) and future (2050–2099) periods. Our results contrast with previous findings: we find that the vast majority of locations in the CRB are estimated to experience an increase in future streamflow magnitudes. The near ubiquity of increases is all the more remarkable in that our approach explores a larger set of methodological variation than previous studies; however, like previous studies, our modeling system was not calibrated to minimize error in maximum daily streamflow and may be affected by unquantifiable errors. We show that on the Columbia and Willamette rivers increases in streamflow magnitudes are smallest downstream and grow larger moving upstream. For the Snake River, however, the pattern is reversed, with increases in streamflow magnitudes growing larger moving downstream to the confluence with the Salmon River tributary and then abruptly dropping. We decompose the variation in results attributable to variability in climate and hydrologic factors across the ensemble, finding that climate contributes more variation in larger basins, while hydrology contributes more in smaller basins. Equally important for practical applications like flood control rule curves, the seasonal timing of flooding shifts dramatically on some rivers (e.g., on the Snake, 20th-century floods occur exclusively in late spring, but by the end of the 21st century some floods occur as early as December) and not at all on others (e.g., the Willamette River).

Understanding the applicability and uncertainties of methods for documenting recharge rates in semi-arid areas is important for assessing the successive effects of land-use changes and understanding groundwater systems. This study focuses on estimating groundwater recharge rates and understanding the impacts of land-use changes on recharge rates in a semi-arid area in southeast Australia. Two adjacent catchments were cleared ∼180 years ago following European settlement, and a eucalypt plantation forest was subsequently established ∼15 years ago in one of the catchments. Chloride mass balance analysis yields recharge rates of 0.2 to 61.6 mm yr−1 (typically up to 11.2 mm yr−1). The lower of these values probably represents recharge rates prior to land clearing, whereas the higher likely reflects recharge rates following the initial land clearing. The low pre-land-clearing recharge rates are consistent with the presence of old groundwater (residence times up to 24 700 years) and the moderate-to-low hydraulic conductivities (0.31 to 0.002 m d−1) of the aquifers. Recharge rates estimated from tritium activities and water table fluctuations reflect those following the initial land clearing. Recharge rates estimated using water table fluctuations (15 to 500 mm yr−1) are significantly higher than those estimated using tritium renewal rates (0.01 to 89 mm yr−1; typically mm yr−1) and approach the long-term average annual rainfall (∼640 mm yr−1). These recharge rates are unrealistic given the estimated evapotranspiration rates of 500 to 600 mm yr−1 and the preservation of old groundwater in the catchments. It is likely that uncertainties in the specific yield results in the water table fluctuation method significantly overestimating recharge rates, and despite the land-use changes, the present-day recharge rates are relatively modest. These results are ultimately important for assessing the impacts of land-use changes and management of groundwater resources in semi-arid regions in Australia and elsewhere.

The paper by Han and Tian (2020) reviews the history of developments in the complementary relationship (CR) between actual and potential evaporation and introduces the generalized complementary principle (GCP) developed by the authors. This comment assesses whether the GCP: (1) can give reasonable results from a wide range of surfaces worldwide; (2) is supported by experimental data that verify the three stages of evaporation implicit in the GCP, particularly in the wet-surface limit; (3) has been proven to be correct by the authors in a previous paper; and (4) is supported by model studies showing that wet surfaces occur predominantly during periods of large-scale moisture convergence. The assessment finds that arguments in favor of the GCP deserve to be taken seriously but ultimately remain unconvincing.

A core goal of sustainable agricultural water resources management is to implement a lower water footprint (WF), i.e. higher water productivity, and to maximize economic benefits in crop production. However, previous studies mostly focused on crop water productivity from a single physical perspective. Little attention is paid to synergies and trade-offs between water consumption and economic value creation of crop production. Distinguishing between blue and green water composition, grain and cash crops, and irrigation and rainfed production modes in China, this study calculates the production-based WF (PWF) and derives the economic value-based WF (EWF) of 14 major crops in 31 provinces for each year over 2001–2016. The synergy evaluation index (SI) of PWF and EWF is proposed to reveal the synergies and trade-offs of crop water productivity and its economic value from the WF perspective. Results show that both the PWF and EWF of most considered crops in China decreased with the increase in crop yield and prices. The high (low) values of both the PWF and EWF of grain crops tended to cluster obviously in space and there existed a huge difference between blue and green water in economic value creation. Moreover, the SI revealed a serious incongruity between PWFs and EWFs both in grain and cash crops. Negative SI values occurred mostly in north-west China for grain crops, and overall more often and with lower values for cash crops. Unreasonable regional planting structure and crop prices resulted in this incongruity, suggesting the need to promote regional coordinated development to adjust the planting structure according to local conditions and to regulate crop prices rationally.

Urban irrigation and road sprinkling are methods for mitigating high urban temperatures which are expected to enhance evapotranspiration and affect the urban weather, climate, and environment, and the optimization of limited water supplies is necessary in regions with water shortages. In this study, we implemented urban water usage schemes such as urban irrigation and road sprinkling in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and assessed their effects with different amounts of water in city centers, suburbs, and rural areas by using the WRF model at a resolution of 1-km Beijing, China. In addition, we developed an optimization scheme with a cooling effect as the optimal objective and the total water supply as the constraint condition. Nonlinear relationships were identified between the cooling effect and water consumption for both road sprinkling and urban irrigation, and the cooling effect due to urban irrigation was more effective than that attributed to road sprinkling. Based on the optimal water management scheme and according to the Beijing's 13th Five Year Plan, about 90 % of the total water supply should be used for urban irrigation and 10 % for road sprinkling as the most effective approach for decreasing urban temperatures by about 1.9 °C.

A decade-long (2010-2020) period with precipitation deficits in central-south Chile (30-41oS), the so-called megadrought (MD), has led to streamflow depletions of larger amplitude than expected from precipitation anomalies, indicating an intensification in drought propagation. We analysed the catchment characteristics and runoff mechanisms modulating such intensification by using the CAMELS-CL dataset and simulations from the HBV hydrological model. We compared annual precipitation-runoff (P-R) relationships before and during the MD across 106 basins with varying snow/rainfall regimes and identified those catchments where drought propagation was intensified. Our results show that catchments’ hydrological memory -modulated by snow and groundwater- is a key control of drought propagation. Snow- dominated catchments (30-35oS) feature larger groundwater contribution to streamflow than pluvial basins, which we relate to the infiltration of snowmelt over the Western Andean Front. This leads to longer memory in these basins, represented by a significative correlation between fall streamflow (when snow has already melted) and the precipitation from the preceding year. Hence, under persistent drought conditions, snow-dominated catchments accumulate the effects of precipitation deficits and progressively generate less water, compared with their historical behaviour, notably affecting central Chile, a region with limited water supply and which concentrates most of the country’s population and water demands. Finally, we addressed a general question: what is worse, an extreme single year drought or a persistent moderate drought? In snow-dominated basins, where water provision strongly depends on both the current and previous precipitation seasons, an extreme drought induces larger absolute streamflow deficits, however persistent deficits induce a more intensified propagation of the meteorological drought. Hence, the worst scenario would be an extreme meteorological drought following consecutive years of precipitation below average, as occurred in 2019. In pluvial basins of southern Chile (35-41oS), hydrologic memory is still an important factor, but water supply is more strongly dependant on the meteorological conditions of the current year, and therefore an extreme drought would have a higher impact on water supply than a persistent but moderate drought.

The development of algorithms for the retrieval of water cycle components from satellite data – such as total column water vapor content (TCWV), precipitation (P), latent heat flux, and evaporation (E) – has seen much progress in the past 3 decades. In the present study, we compare six recent satellite-based retrieval algorithms and ERA5 (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' fifth reanalysis) freshwater flux (E−P) data regarding global and regional, seasonal and interannual variation to assess the degree of correspondence among them. The compared data sets are recent, freely available, and documented climate data records (CDRs), developed with a focus on stability and homogeneity of the time series, as opposed to instantaneous accuracy. One main finding of our study is the agreement of global ocean means of all E−P data sets within the uncertainty ranges of satellite-based data. Regionally, however, significant differences are found among the satellite data and with ERA5. Regression analyses of regional monthly means of E, P, and E−P against the statistical median of the satellite data ensemble (SEM) show that, despite substantial differences in global E patterns, deviations among E−P data are dominated by differences in P throughout the globe. E−P differences among data sets are spatially inhomogeneous. We observe that for ERA5 long-term global E−P is very close to 0 mm d−1 and that there is good agreement between land and ocean mean E−P, vertically integrated moisture flux divergence (VIMD), and global TCWV tendency. The fact that E and P are balanced globally provides an opportunity to investigate the consistency between E and P data sets. Over ocean, P (nearly) balances with E if the net transport of water vapor from ocean to land (approximated by over-ocean VIMD, i.e., ∇⋅(vq)ocean) is taken into account. On a monthly timescale, linear regression of Eocean-∇⋅(vq)ocean with Pocean yields R2=0.86 for ERA5, but smaller R2 values are found for satellite data sets. Global yearly climatological totals of water cycle components (E, P, E−P, and net transport from ocean to land and vice versa) calculated from the data sets used in this study are in agreement with previous studies, with ERA5 E and P occupying the upper part of the range. Over ocean, both the spread among satellite-based E and the difference between two satellite-based P data sets are greater than E−P, and these remain the largest sources of uncertainty within the observed global water budget. We conclude that, for a better understanding of the global water budget, the quality of E and P data sets needs to be improved, and the uncertainties more rigorously quantified.

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Floods cause extensive damage, especially if they affect large regions. Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable hydrologic model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and spatial aspects of flooding under current and future climate conditions. However, uncertainties in simulated floods can be considerable and yield unreliable hazard and climate change impact assessments. This study evaluates the extent to which models calibrated according to standard model calibration metrics such as the widely used Kling–Gupta efficiency are able to capture flood spatial coherence and triggering mechanisms. To highlight challenges related to flood simulations, we investigate how flood timing, magnitude, and spatial variability are represented by an ensemble of hydrological models when calibrated on streamflow using the Kling–Gupta efficiency metric, an increasingly common metric of hydrologic model performance also in flood-related studies. Specifically, we compare how four well-known models (the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, SAC; the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model, HBV; the variable infiltration capacity model, VIC; and the mesoscale hydrologic model, mHM) represent (1) flood characteristics and their spatial patterns and (2) how they translate changes in meteorologic variables that trigger floods into changes in flood magnitudes. Our results show that both the modeling of local and spatial flood characteristics are challenging as models underestimate flood magnitude, and flood timing is not necessarily well captured. They further show that changes in precipitation and temperature are not always well translated to changes in flood flow, which makes local and regional flood hazard assessments even more difficult for future conditions. From a large sample of catchments and with multiple models, we conclude that calibration on the integrated Kling–Gupta metric alone is likely to yield models that have limited reliability in flood hazard assessments, undermining their utility for regional and future change assessments. We underscore that such assessments can be improved by developing flood-focused, multi-objective, and spatial calibration metrics, by improving flood generating process representation through model structure comparisons and by considering uncertainty in precipitation input.

Methane (CH4) seepage (i.e., steady or episodic flow of gaseous hydrocarbons from subsurface reservoirs) has been identified as a significant source of atmospheric CH4. However, radiocarbon data from polar ice cores have recently brought into question the magnitude of fossil CH4 seepage naturally occurring. In northern high latitudes, seepage of subsurface CH4 is impeded by permafrost and glaciers, which are under an increasing risk of thawing and melting in a globally warming world, implying the potential release of large stores of CH4 in the future. Resolution of these important questions requires a better constraint and monitoring of actual emissions from seepage areas. The measurement of these seeps is challenging, particularly in aquatic environments, because they involve large and irregular gas flow rates, unevenly distributed both spatially and temporally. Large macroseeps are particularly difficult to measure due to a lack of lightweight, inexpensive methods that can be deployed in remote Arctic environments. Here, we report the use of a mobile chamber for measuring emissions at the surface of ice-free lakes subject to intense CH4 macroseepage. Tested in a remote Alaskan lake, the method was validated for the measurement of fossil CH4 emissions of up to 1.08 × 104 g CH4 m−2 d−1 (13.0 L m−2 min−1 of 83.4 % CH4 bubbles), which is within the range of global fossil methane seepage and several orders of magnitude above standard ecological emissions from lakes. In addition, this method allows for low diffusive flux measurements. Thus, the mobile chamber approach presented here covers the entire magnitude range of CH4 emissions currently identified, from those standardly observed in lakes to intense macroseeps, with a single apparatus of moderate cost.

The local land–atmosphere coupling (LoCo) investigates the interactions between soil conditions, surface fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) growth, and the formations of convective clouds and precipitation. Studying LoCo over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of great significance for understanding the TP's role in the Asian water tower. A series of real-case simulations, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different combinations of land surface model (LSM) schemes and PBL schemes, has been carried out to investigate the LoCo characteristics over a typical underlying surface in the central TP in the rainy season. The LoCo characteristics in the study area are analyzed by applying a mixing diagram to the simulation results. The analysis indicates that the WRF simulations, using the Noah with BouLac, Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and Niino Level-2.5 PBL (MYNN), and Yonsei University (YSU) produce closer results to the observation in terms of curves of Cp⋅θ and Lv⋅q, surface fluxes (Hsfc and LEsfc), entrainment fluxes (Hent, and LEent) at site BJ of Nagqu Station (BJ/Nagqu) than those using the Community Land Model (CLM) with BouLac, MYNN, and YSU. The frequency distributions of Hsfc, LEsfc, Hent, and LEent in the study area confirm this result. The spatial distributions of simulated Hsfc, LEsfc, Hent, and LEent, using WRF with Noah and BouLac, suggest that the spatial distributions of Hsfc and LEsfc in the study area are consistent with that of soil moisture, but the spatial distributions of Hent and LEent are quite different from that of soil moisture. A close examination of the relationship between entrainment fluxes and cloud water content (QCloud) reveals that the grids with small Hent and large LEent tend to have high QCloud and Hsfc, suggesting that high Hsfc is conducive to convective cloud formation, which leads to small Hent and large LEent. A sensitivity analysis of LoCo to the soil moisture at site BJ/Nagqu indicates that, on a sunny day, an increase in soil moisture leads to an increase in LEsfc but decreases in Hsfc, Hent, and LEent. The sensitivity of the relationship between simulated maximum daytime PBL height (PBLH) and mean daytime evapotranspiration (ET) in the study area to soil moisture indicates the rate at which the maximum daytime PBLH decreases with the mean ET increase as the initial soil moisture goes up. The analysis of simulated Hsfc, LEsfc, Hent, and LEent under different soil moisture conditions reveals that the frequency of Hent ranging from 80 to 240 W m−2 and the frequency of LEent ranging from −240 to −90 W m−2 both increase as the initial soil moisture increases. Coupled with the changes in QCloud, the changes in Hent and LEent as the initial soil moisture increases indicate that the rise in soil moisture leads to an increase in the cloud amount but a decrease in QCloud.

Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. Since many societal impacts from a lack of water happen under drought conditions, it is important to understand how droughts may develop with climate change. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels (GWLs of 1.5, 2, and 3 K above pre-industrial temperature). We employed a low-flow analysis based on river discharge simulations of the LISFLOOD (De Roo et al., 2000) spatially distributed physically based hydrological and water use model, which was forced with a large ensemble of regional climate model projections under high emissions (RCP8.5) and moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) Representative Concentration Pathways. Different traits of drought, including severity, duration, and frequency, were investigated using the threshold level method. The projected changes in these traits identify four main sub-regions in Europe that are characterized by somehow homogeneous and distinct behaviours with a clear south-west–north-east contrast. The Mediterranean and Boreal sub-regions (defined in Sect. 3.1.1) of Europe show strong but opposite changes at all three GWLs, with the former area mostly characterized by stronger droughts (with larger differences at 3 K), while the latter is expected to experience a reduction in all drought traits. In the Atlantic and Continental sub-regions, the changes are expected to be less marked and characterized by a larger uncertainty, especially at the 1.5 and 2 K GWLs. Combining the projections in drought hazard with population and agricultural information shows that with 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land are projected to be exposed to droughts every year, on average, with the most affected areas located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.

Land surface models (LSMs) that simulate water and energy exchanges at the land–atmosphere interface are a key component of Earth system models. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) drives the Asian monsoon through surface heating and thus plays a key role in regulating the climate system in the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, it is vital to understand and represent well the land surface processes on the TP. After an early review that identified key issues in the understanding and modeling of land surface processes on the TP in 2009, much progress has been made in the last decade in developing new land surface schemes and supporting datasets. This review summarizes the major advances. (i) An enthalpy-based approach was adopted to enhance the description of cryosphere processes such as glacier and snow mass balance and soil freeze–thaw transition. (ii) Parameterization of the vertical mixing process was improved in lake models to ensure reasonable heat transfer to the deep water and to the near-surface atmosphere. (iii) New schemes were proposed for modeling water flow and heat transfer in soils accounting for the effects of vertical soil heterogeneity due to the presence of high soil organic matter content and dense vegetation roots in surface soils or gravel in soil columns. (iv) Supporting datasets of meteorological forcing and soil parameters were developed by integrating multi-source datasets including ground-based observations. Perspectives on the further improvement of land surface modeling on the TP are provided, including the continuous updating of supporting datasets, parameter estimation through assimilation of satellite observations, improvement of snow and lake processes, adoption of data-driven and artificial intelligence methods, and the development of an integrated LSM for the TP.

Alqueva Reservoir is one of the largest artificial lakes in Europe and is a strategic water storage for public supply, irrigation, and energy generation. The reservoir is integrated within the Multipurpose Alqueva Project (MAP), which includes almost 70 reservoirs in a water-scarce region of Portugal. The MAP contributes to sustainability in southern Portugal and has an important impact on the entire country. Evaporation is the key component of water loss from the reservoirs included in the MAP. Evaporation from Alqueva Reservoir has been estimated by indirect methods or pan evaporation measurements; however, specific experimental parameters such as the pan coefficient were never evaluated. Eddy covariance measurements were performed at Alqueva Reservoir from June to September in 2014 as this time of the year provides the most representative evaporation volume losses in a Mediterranean climate. This period is also the most important period for irrigated agriculture and is, therefore, the most problematic period of the year in terms of managing the reservoir. The direct pan evaporation approach was first tested, and the results were compared to the eddy covariance evaporation measurements. The total eddy covariance (EC) evaporation measured from June to September 2014 was 450.1 mm. The mean daily EC evaporation in June, July, August, and September was 3.7, 4.0, 4.5, and 2.5 mm d−1, respectively. A pan coefficient, Kpan, multivariable function was established on a daily scale using the identified governing factors: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and incoming solar radiation. The correlation between the modelled evaporation and the measured EC evaporation had an R2 value of 0.7. The estimated Kpan values were 0.59, 0.57, 0.57, and 0.64 in June, July, August, and September, respectively. Consequently, the daily mean reservoir evaporation (ERes) was 3.9, 4.2, 4.5, and 2.7 mm d−1 for this 4-month period and the total modelled ERes was 455.8 mm. The developed Kpan function was validated for the same period in 2017 and yielded an R2 value of 0.68. This study proposes an applicable method for calculating evaporation based on pan measurements in Alqueva Reservoir, and it can be used to support regional water management. Moreover, the methodology presented here could be applied to other reservoirs, and the developed equation could act as a first evaluation for the management of other Mediterranean reservoirs.