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This paper investigates the hydrological response of glacierized headwater catchments to future climate change in the Ötztal Alps, Austria. To this end, two conceptual hydrological models, HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) and HQsim, are applied for the simulation of future daily discharge in three (nested) catchments with varying degrees of glaciation. The models are forced with downscaled climate change projections, and outputs from an empirical glacier model, which is able to simulate future glacial evolution. Under the future conditions, the outcomes show initially that runoff increases for all catchments without changes in the runoff regimes. In the long term, summer runoff is expected to decrease and winter/spring runoff is expected to increase in all catchments. These runoff changes are accompanied with regime shifts from glacial/glacio-nival runoff regimes to runoff regimes with a higher nival component. Changing runoff conditions might also lead to changes in the seasonality of annual flood peaks with an earlier appearance of flood peaks, and an increasing appearance of low flow conditions during summer months. The outcomes of the two hydrological models show minor differences. The results of this study provide improved understanding of the future impact of climate change on the water cycle of glacierized Alpine catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty ranges of high flows under climate change in Jinhua River basin, eastern China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), three global climate models (GCMs), 10 downscaling parameter sets and three hydrologic models are applied to simulate future discharges. Changes of annual maximum discharges are assessed for the baseline period (1961-1990) and future period (2011-2040). The uncertainties of annual maximum discharges are calculated for each uncertainty source and compared with different combinations of them. The minimum temperature will probably increase all year round in the future period and maximum temperature would increase in most cases. The changes of precipitation showed different directions by different models and emission scenarios. The annual maximum discharges would decrease for all RCPs. The order of uncertainty ranges of high flows due to different uncertainty sources from high to low is: hydrologic models, GCMs, parameter sets in the downscaling method and emission scenarios. It must be noted that the small uncertainty contribution from different emission scenarios is due to the study period when the differences in increase of radiative forcing and greenhouse gas concentration are less obvious between different RCPs compared to the second half of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation and land-surface hydrology are intrinsically linked under long-term climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of potential natural vegetation arising from 21st century climate change and its possible impact on the water budget of the Hanjiang River basin in China. Based on predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1 scenario from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model, changes in plant functional types (PFTs) and leaf area index (LAI) were simulated via the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. Subsequently, predicted PFTs and LAIs were employed in the Xinanjiang vegetation-hydrology model for rainfall-runoff simulations. Results reveal that future long-term changes in precipitation, air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration would remarkably affect the spatiotemporal distribution of PFTS and LAIS. These climate-driven vegetation changes would further influence regional water balance. With the decrease in forest cover in the 21st century, plant transpiration and evaporative loss of intercepted canopy water will tend to fall while soil evaporation may rise considerably. As a result, total evapotranspiration may increase moderately with a slight increase in annual runoff depth. This indicates that, for long-term hydrological prediction, climate-induced changes in terrestrial vegetation cannot be neglected as the terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in land-surface hydrological responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]