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Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a common management strategy for conserving marine resources, but it can be challenging to evaluate their effectiveness for meeting management objectives. Measuring the effectiveness of MPAs is particularly challenging in dynamic and changing environments where other management approaches are simultaneously implemented. Before–after–control–impact (BACI) analysis is a tool that offers a simple and robust design for evaluating complex effects. However, design and interpretation of a BACI analysis is not always straightforward. The goal of this study was to explore the potential for BACI to evaluate MPA performance in a system simultaneously impacted by other management measures and environmental change. We develop a typology of interpretations of BACI results based on the main and interaction effects of the model, categorized by the extent to which dynamics inside and outside of the MPA are independent. Furthermore, we examine how decisions about the spatial and temporal design of the study, and the focal species and response variables, can determine which outcomes from within the typology are evident through BACI applications to New England groundfish area closures. We identify strengths and limitations of the BACI approach and demonstrate that BACI is a valuable but imperfect tool for evaluating MPAs.

The decline of the Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, stock in the Gulf of Maine to a historically low biomass has been coupled with a severe contraction in spatial range. The stock is now largely concentrated in the western Gulf of Maine. This erosion of spatial stock structure may be a factor-inhibiting recovery of Gulf of Maine cod. However, recent efforts to rebuild anadromous forage fish in the coastal Maine region coupled with the proposed creation of a new Eastern Maine Closed Area (EMCA), sited where localized depletion of the cod stock has been especially severe, might enable reestablishment of lost spatial structure of Gulf of Maine cod. We carried out larval transport modeling to examine the potential benefit of recovered cod spawning in the EMCA through supplying larvae to suitable juvenile settlement areas in the Gulf of Maine coastal zone and in the Cashes Ledge Closed Area (CLCA) in the central Gulf of Maine. The results indicate that an appreciable fraction of the larvae spawned in the EMCA are retained, to an age of settlement capability, in the coastal Maine region. Spawning in the EMCA may thus be a contributor of juveniles to a local, eastern Gulf of Maine, cod sub-stock. The results further indicate that spawning in the EMCA may supply a substantial subsidy of larvae to suitable juvenile habitat in the western Gulf of Maine and the CLCA. Protection of spawning stock in the EMCA may thus provide demographic benefits for the wider Gulf of Maine cod stock. Patterns of larval-stage connectivity between various potential spawning regions (including the EMCA) and areas of suitable juvenile habitat exhibit considerable interannual variability, which is predominantly linked to variability in the large-scale Gulf of Maine circulation. This result underscores the value of spatially explicit management as a means of fostering the recovery of the Gulf of Maine cod stock.